Pilot Media - Caring For The Aging 2015

Caringfor the

aging

THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT | A SPECIAL ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT | WEDNESDAY | 06.24.15

DENNIS TENNANT FOR THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 24, 2015 SPECIAL ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT2

indexStaying fit into your golden years

Page 6

How to love your retirement: Staying in shape

Page 7

Can a building make you better?

Page 8

Hope for Alzheimers treatment, prevention

Page 12

The secret of the centenarians

Page 14

Are you at risk of dying within the next five years? One quiz might be able to tell you.

Page 18

about the sectionEditorClay [email protected]

Advertising(757)222-5538, PilotMediaSolutions.com

DesignerLisa [email protected]

Reporters

Alison JohnsonKim OBrien RootCindy Butler Focke

TOO MANY BOOMERS, NOT ENOUGH DOCTORS

Story by ALISON JOHNSONCorrespondent

Photography by DENNIS TENNANTFor The Virginian-Pilot

Dr. Robert Palmer, right, talks with Amarsit Singh during Singhs visit to the Glennan Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology at EVMS. Palmer sees Singh on a regular basis.

NORFOLK

PEDIATRICIANS ARE FOND of saying that children are not just smaller adults. Turns out, people 65 and older arent just grayer adults, either. Seniors face more complex health challenges, often have markedly different symptoms for

common killers and respond uniquely to medications, especially those that increase the risk of mental confusion and falls. Unfortunately the number of doctors specializing in elderly care lags far behind the number of people aging into that demographic.

The number of aging patients is outpacing that of geriatric doctors trained to treat them.

See GERIATRICS, PAGE 4

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Theres a huge disconnect, says Dr. Marissa Galicia-Castil-lo, professor of geriatrics at East-ern Virginia Medical School in Norfolk. Beyond the shortage of doctors just in general, far too few are going into geriatrics. Its especially concerning given that the fastest growing portion of the senior population is 85 and old-er. Cookie-cutter care is not go-ing to work.

Nearly a fifth of Virginians are expected to be older than 65 by 2030, up from 12 percent in 2010. The state would need 790 certified geriatricians to prop-erly care for the most needy pa-tients , according to the American Geriatrics Society. As of 2014, it had 185, a number that has bare-ly moved in recent years.

On a good year, about 100 med-

ical school graduates in the Unit-ed States choose the field. That doesnt surprise Galicia-Castillo, who says EVMS produces about one a year, a trend the school is fighting to change.

Diagnosing older patients is rarely straightforward. A 75-year-old having a heart at-tack might present with extreme fatigue, nausea or delirium, rath-er than chest pain. Delirium also can be a sign of pneumonia or a urinary tract infection, health problems that would present as fever in younger patients.

Elderly patients are often more susceptible to side effects of cer-tain medications, says Dr. Brad Murray, an EVMS geriatric fel-low. Murray often finds him-self trying to wean patients off drugs theyve taken for decades that have become ineffective or

DENNIS TENNANT | FOR THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT

GERIATRICSContinued from Page 2

Dr. Brad Murray and Connie Mix share a laugh at the beginning of Mixs visit with Murray at the Glennan Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology at EVMS in Norfolk.

See next page

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potentially dangerous.Their bodies can metabolize

medications differently, which may impair mental function and lead to more falls, he says. They also may just be making people feel worse.

Most geriatricians complete an extra one or two years of specialized training to prepare for the job . One huge roadblock to recruitment -- especially for graduates in significant debt -- is that the field generally pays less than other specialties with advanced training. Geriatri-cians work mainly with Medi-care patients.

Local educators are now training all medical students in the basics of geriatric care, given that many will handle a senior-heavy patient popula-tion no matter their specialty. Theyre also developing nurses and physician assistants to help.

There is a real opportunity for us to step up and fill some of the void, says Christianne Fowler, a geriatric nurse prac-titioner and assistant profes-sor at Old Dominion University. ODU has a standalone geriat-rics course for undergradu-

ates studying to be registered nurses; a class on aging became a requirement for graduate-level nursing students three years ago.

EVMS has since 2004 offered a combined geriatrics-internal medicine track designed to ex-pose more students to the field earlier in their training.

Caring for the elderly also re-quires a shift in mindset for stu-dents, most of whom expect to focus on extending lives.

What Ive found is most old-er patients really dont fear death, Fowler says. Theyre afraid of disability, of outliv-ing their money and becoming a burden. They want quality of life, and there are many little changes we can make -- whit-tling down their medications, tweaking their diets -- that can make a big difference.

Geriatrics uses a team ap-proach that draws in social

workers, nutritionists, neuro-psychologists, pharmacists and other experts to address mo-bility, cognitive function, fam-ily support, transportation and retirement finances. Its not a sexy field, but you get to spend a lot of time with patients and have really in-depth, meaning-ful discussions, says Murray, who will practice on the East-ern Shore come fall. You can make a lot of progress.

Joyce Barge, a Chesa-peake resident who brings her 82-year-old mother to EVMS geriatric consultation clinic, can vouch for that. Ernestine Brooms suffers from dementia, diabetes, high blood pressure and arthritis and lives with her daughter. Since she began see-ing Murray about a year ago, she is on fewer medications and is more physically active.

She likes the office because nothing is rushed or crowded,

Barge says. People take their time and talk to her. They mon-itor everything. The progress has helped Brooms stay with Barge rather than in a health care center: Her diabetes is better. Were not waiting on her as much because shes moving around more and they encour-age that. She eats better. Id say most definitely shes feel-ing better.

As medicine moves away from a fee-for-service model in favor of rewarding good out-comes for patients, Murray is hopeful that geriatrics will at-tract more medical students. Increasingly, geriatricians are practicing outside of long-term care centers and moving into leadership roles in hospitals and medical practices, he notes. They also report some of the highest job satisfaction rates in medicine.

Yet as of now, EVMS has no young doctor to fill its fellow-ship in geriatrics the one Mur-ray just completed for the fall.

We need to remember that these patients are someones mom, someones dad, some-ones loved one, Galicia-Cas-tillo says. They deserve our best.

DENNIS TENNANT | FOR THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT

Dr. Brad Murray walks down the corridor with Betty Malik to assess her balance and mobility during Maliks clinic visit

Continued from previous page

One huge roadblock to recruitment in geriatrics

especially for graduates in significant debt

is that the field generally pays less than other

specialties with advanced training.

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By Kim OBrien RootCorrespondent

HAMPTON

Inside a large exercise room at the Hampton YMCA, about 45 people are lined up before instructor Rob-bie Koll, following her as she salsa-dances back and forth.

Near each of them is a chair, but except for one man, the entire class is on its feet, shaking and shimmy-ing along with Koll.

The 93-year-old woman who broke her pelvis last year? Shes standing. The man with early onset Alzheim-ers? Hes right up front. And the couple in their 80s, who have been going to the YMCA for 20-some years? Theyre right up there, too, dancing.

Seniors? calls out Koll. What seniors?

This is SilverSneakers, a national exercise program for older adults. The Hampton YMCA, one of 13,000 locations offering the class, has host-ed it for 11 years. It is one of the cen-ters best attended classes.

Free for many seniors, the pro-gram is available through health plans, including Medicare. In Vir-ginia, SilverSneakers is offered through the AARP Medicare Supple-ment Insurance Plan, Aetna Medi-care, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Anthem HealthKeepers, Hu-mana and UnitedHealthcare.

SilverSneakers classes are intend-ed to help participants age grace-fully and healthily. The total-body conditioning classes are designed to increase muscular strength, endur-ance, range of movement, flexibility, balance, agility and coordination.

The more mature people are very interested in keeping their health, like a preventative maintenance-type of thing, Koll says. We have a lot of seniors who lose weight when they start, but more importantly are the other health issues. It helps with the heart, with diabetes. A lot of them come in and say, Our doc-tor is just so proud of us. And Im proud of them.

Koll, 70, a retired photographer from Poquoson, has taught aerobics at the location for about 20 years. She started her SilverSneakers class with three people. Today, there are more than 60 enrolled, with classes meeting four times a week.

Any YMCA member can attend. Koll sometimes gets younger attend-ees, many of whom are recovering

Staying fit into your golden years

KIM ROOT | FOR THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT

SilverSneakers is a national exercise program for older adults. Hampton YMCA, one of 13,000 locations offering the class, has hosted it for 11 years.

If we dont move, we wont be as energetic. ... I dont want to miss this class.

Elvira Cooper, who helps teach the class

from injuries. But the class is any-thing but easy.

The chairs are in place for sever-al exercises. Sometimes theyre used for balance.

Koll tells the participants they dont have to stand that they can make the class as light or as hard as they want. She once had a man in her class with an oxygen canister. Canes are a common sight.

Ginny Kilduff, 93, fell down a set of stairs last August, breaking her pelvic bone in three places. She had been taking the class before her fall, and resumed it as soon as she could.

I need the exercise, she says. Its important to keep moving.

More than just exercise, Silver-Sneakers also provides social events for members. The class goes on fre-quent field trips. Members of the class say they cant imagine not hav-ing it.

For 75-year-old Delores Cooper, its the feeling she gets from exer-cise that motivates her.

If we dont move, we wont be as energetic, adds Elvira Cooper, who helps teach the class on the rare oc-casions Koll cant make it. You still get the aches and pains. But you get renewed energy. I dont want to miss this class.

On a recent Thursday, the class was rocking to the music, many sing-

ing along, as Koll led them through the steps. Along the way, she shouted out encouragement, calling them by name, reminding them to drink water, joking with them as they stood with one hand on a chair to do leg lefts.

Not too high, she cautioned as Frank Sinatra crooned Witchcraft over the stereo speakers. Nobody throw out their hip!

The class just laughed along with her.

When Im here, said Delores Coo-per, I dont even think about be-ing 75.

For more information, visit www.silversneakers.com.


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When you retire, especially in a re-tirement community, there is a temptation to become an alcohol-ic. You can sit out with the neighbors every evening and drink. So we have to watch that. There is also a danger of getting fat. We eat out all the time, prob-ably 16 out of 21 meals per week. Restaurant food typically isnt healthy, so you have to keep doing exercis-es and making good choices about eating.

-Frank Hawk, Lakeland, Florida

Im really into walk-ing to stay in shape, but many people walk too slowly to get the full ben-efits. To improve your health, you need to walk fast enough to elevate your heart rate. You can measure your rate of ex-ertion with something called the talk test: If you can speak easily in full sentences while walking, youre not work-ing hard enough; if you can barely get a word out, youre pushing too hard. Look for something in the middle. Its helpful if you are walking with someone, because you want to be able to have at least a little bit of conver-sation back and forth.

-Bob Phillips, Harrisonburg, Virginia

I think everybody should stretch. I do my stretches every morning and every night. I picture myself praying to Mecca, where my legs are tucked under me and Im bent forward on the floor. My arms are stretched over my head and my spine is in perfect alignment. It keeps me limber.

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By Cindy Butler FockeCorrespondent

NORFOLK

We know buildings can make you sick; but can they also make you healthier?

Leigh Hall Assisted Living and Memo-ry Care just finished a $3 million renova-tion specifically designed to help patients suffering from Alzheimers and dementia.

The three-story buildings first floor is dedicated to people with those conditions, with 34 beds and 24-hour caregivers. But the new wings focal point is a central open-air courtyard that -- among other benefits -- allows natural light inside, helping res-idents regulate their natural sleep cycle.

Research shows how important daylight is for all residents, but especially for those suffering from dementia, said Delores Ja-cobson , regional vice president of Common-wealth Assisted Living, which operates 21

assisted living locations in Virginia.More than five million Americans have

Alzheimers, a number that will escalate to more than seven million by 2025 as the Baby Boom generation ages, and people live longer.

Sleep issues among such patients of-ten cause exhaustion, and agitation. Leigh Halls new area can help modify the behav-ior, Jacobson said. Residents can sit outside and enjoy nature amid the calming sounds of a running fountain, or remain inside with a full view from the combined living room-kitchen area.

The fresh air, she said, also helps appetite. Alzheimers patients have a tendency to

wander, but according to executive direc-tor Starr Caulder, the area is secure. Any door they go out leads back into the mem-ory care, she said.

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The ability to connect with the past is helpful for those who suffer mem-ory loss. Shadow boxes for each res-ident hang on the wall outside each room. Family members place me-mentos inside them to help trigger reminders of important events. One rooms box features an old photo of a resident and her husband, a lipstick holder, and some small figurines.

The center also offers themed ar-eas, known as life stations, which highlight some of the residents in-terests and hobbies. Theres already an antique-looking vanity with hats, and drawers filled with costume jew-elry, plus a small bench with a fish-ing rod and tackle box nearby. The goal is to help caregivers and visi-tors interact about their past, and stimulate happy memories.

The new activity area gives resi-dents somewhere to play bingo, make crafts, and even cradle dolls in a rocking chair. Sometimes rocking a baby is the most comforting and natural thing in the world, Caul-der said.

The serenity room provides a cozy dim-lit spot where residents and caregivers can relax. And resi-

SONJA Y. FOSTER | FOR THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT

Leigh Hall Assisted Livings first floor is dedicated to Alzheimers and dementia patients. The facility recently reopened with a new memory wing.

Continued from previous page

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dents are given the opportunity to participate in gardening, play word games, listen to music, and even bake cookies a way to bring normalcy to their lives.

We are trying to be innova-tive, and as much a part of their normal as we possibly can, Ja-cobson said.

The local Alzheimers chap-ter provides free family servic-es, programs, resources, plus a monthly family orientation for relatives of loved ones with the disease. For more information, visit www.alz.org/seva or call the 24-hour hotline, 800-272-3900.

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Family members fill Memory Boxes, located outside each room, with photos, poems and personal knick-knacks to help each resident remember where their room is.

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By Jill DalyPittsburgh Post-Gazette

PITTSBURGH

Alzheimers disease is one of the conditions that Americans are most afraid they will get, second only to cancer. Yet at least a genera-tion of focused research has gone by without an effective treatment or sure advice on how to prevent it.

University of Pittsburgh Alzheimers researchers are among those leading studies and while huge chal-lenges still exist in making progress, they see hope in recent reports.

The new research is ex-amining both treatment and prevention, using the lat-est technology of imaging a persons brain. In addition to the changes in the way a person thinks, Alzheimers is associated with physical changes, including beta am-yloid plaque and tau protein tangles in the brain.

Oscar Lopez, a professor of neurology at Pitt and di-rector of the University of Pittsburgh Alzheimers Dis-ease Research Center, said he is concerned that, despite improved technology, it will still take another 10 years to get useful results.

There are a handful of studies, including the mul-tisite A4 Study at Pitt, that are examining people with-out any sign of Alzheim-ers and following them for 10 years with brain scans. They hope this will explain why one person develops the disease and another doesnt. Dr. Lopez is the principal investigator in Pittsburgh.

Well follow them as they are normal, for about four to

five years; then symptoms begin to appear and demen-tia is diagnosed. Then we can understand these early scans and know how fast the disease progresses.

Dr. Lopez also oversees the Pittsburgh arm of the ongoing global, multisite study known as ADNI. It is assessing information collected from cognitive tests, imaging, genetics and amyloid and tau biomark-ers as patients are followed over several years through normal aging to diagnoses of mild cognitive impair-ment or dementia, includ-ing Alzheimers. This study will provide information about the individuals who are more vulnerable to de-velop Alzheimers disease.

Some people have amy-loid processes but have no symptoms. Others have no amyloid, Dr. Lopez said about questions research-ers have. What makes a person vulnerable? It is a chemical connection; does stiffness in the arteries cor-respond to amyloid in the brain? We now know that hypertension is connected to Alzheimers.

Watching people go through aging takes time, Dr. Lopez said - and money.

Even with all the tech-nology (to aid research), there is still the human fac-tor ... you need to follow peo-ple through the aging pro-cess. The whole process will take two generations.

In the meantime, National Institutes of Health funding for Alzheimers research is not keeping up with the need, he said, and that is discouraging young scien-tists. We lost one genera-

tion of researchers. Thats significant damage.

Technology, in particu-lar, is costly, Dr. Lopez said. Armed with new technolo-gy, recent studies point to malfunctioning tau as the main cause of the decline in thinking and memory in Alzheimers, not the buildup of beta amyloid fragments in the brain, which has been the focus of research for more than 20 years.

The good news is that achievements are being made in therapies and technology - and the pub-lic mindset is in the right place, said William Bill Klunk, Pitt professor of psy-chiatry and neurology, and co-director of the research center.

We have reached the point where its worth the effort, said Dr. Klunk, also chair of the Alzheimers As-sociation Medical and Sci-entific Advisory Council, which guides the direction of the groups research pro-gram.

The Alzheimers Associ-ation has worked hard with its collaborators, to draw at-tention to the need for more funding, and that has shown some success, he said, add-ing that although more than $500 million for research was in this years federal budget, an additional $300 million is requested for next year.

The association pre-dicts that without a medi-cal breakthrough, by 2050 there will be 13.8 million Americans over age 65 with the disease. The likelihood of developing Alzheimers

Researchers finally see hope for Alzheimers treatment, prevention

See next page

Well follow them as they are normal, for about four to five years; then symptoms begin to appear and dementia is diagnosed. Then we can understand these early scans and know how fast the disease progresses.Dr. Oscar Lopez, director of the University of Pittsburgh Alzheimers Disease Research Center

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doubles every five years af-ter age 65. After age 85, the risk is almost 50 percent.

Its not just amyloid or tau proteins, Dr. Klunk said. In older people, there is more incidence of the disease, there are more pathologies in the brain, more protein deposits. There are subtle blood flow changes. All of these things change. Its more likely that their Al-zheimers disease is a com-bination of more than one thing going on in the brain.

There are several trials at Pitt testing drugs to treat or prevent Alzheimers. Trials now recruiting include the A4 Study, which is testing a drug, given by IV infusion, that might prevent or delay the onset of Alzheimers in people who may be at risk, as seen in a brain imaging test known as a PET scan. More information is avail-able at a4study.org.

Four medications now are most frequently prescribed to treat the symptoms of Al-zheimers disease: Aricept, Razadyne, Exelon and Na-

menda.Medications can slow

down the progression of the disease, Dr. Lopez said. The risk of going to a nurs-ing home is diminished, but theyre not magic.

In addition, plasma ex-change is being tested at Pitt as a treatment of symp-toms in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimers. The unwanted amyloid pro-teins are removed from the blood and the plasma is re-turned to the body. It is only excess amyloid that gets to the brain that is a concern.

Also underway and not seeking more patients is a passive immunization study that tests doses of an antibody to clear beta amy-loid from the brains of pa-tients with mild to moder-ate Alzheimers.

Pitt is also part of a mul-tisite international study of people who have a genetic risk for Alzheimers.

Known as the DIAN Trial, it is still recruiting and will assess safety of two drugs in people who have a genetic mutation for inherited early-onset Alzheimers disease,

which makes up fewer than 1 percent of total Alzheim-ers cases.

The game change is the anti-amyloid therapies themselves, Dr. Klunk said. Without those antibodies or therapies or imaging tech-nologies, none of these tri-als could exist.

He said its a critical time now to see results: There are fewer companies, such as Eli Lilly and GE Health-care, to pursue development of imaging tools and drug therapies.

Dr. Klunk said he was highly encouraged by recent news from drug company Biogen Idec, saying an ex-perimental drug was found to slow down the decline of mental function in Alzheim-ers patients in a small clin-ical trial. The drug, adu-canumab, was being tested for safety and not for dos-age, but higher doses of the drug brought better results. It is designed to clear amy-loid plaque from the brain.

Results might come in two or three years, Dr. Klunk said. Well see. Dr. Klunk said.

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By Erica CurlessThe Spokesman-Review

Just live. Perhaps thats the se-cret to living to age 100 -- 20 years longer than the average life ex-pectancy.

The idea was to have local cente-narians give advice to baby boom-ers, the generation just younger than most of their children, on how to age well and hit the 100 mark. Centenarians are still considered rare, but are becoming more com-mon with advancements in medi-

cine and health care.Yet by age 100, that sage advice

is largely lost.Margaret, do you have any

words of wisdom to tell us young gals and guys? asked Elise Bivi-ano, executive director of Brook-dale Place at Northpointe in Spo-kane, Wash., during a recent 100th birthday celebration for Margaret Kunkel and Dorothy Kuhta.

No, Kunkel said, looking around blankly. She returned to

TRIBUNE NEWS SERVICE FILE PHOTO

Currently, people older than 85 make up the fastest growing segment of the U.S. population.

The secret of the centenarians

Id like to hope I have some of her genes.Dick Kunkel, whose mother Margaret recently turned 100

See CENTENARIANS, PAGE 16

AS MORE PEOPLE HIT THEIR 100TH BIRTHDAYS, baby boomers and researchers seek the answers to what factors into a long life and how to age well.

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licking frosting off her fingers.The facility threw a party for

the ladies, born in 1915 during World War I when Babe Ruth made his pitching debut and the inauguration of transconti-nental telephone service when Alexander Graham Bell called San Francisco from New York.

The women married in their early 20s, during the Depres-sion years of the mid-1930s

Family and friends gath-ered, drank Champagne, and ate cupcakes and fruit spears and sang Happy Birthday.

Mary Kunkel said later that she didnt think her mother-in-law grasped that it was her birthday party. Although healthy and vibrant looking, Kunkel hasnt had many good days lately as far as her mem-ory.

Thats part of aging, espe-cially when you live to 100. About 50 percent of U.S. cen-tenarians have dementia and only 20 to 25 percent are cog-nitively intact, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Kuhta knew it was her birth-day and enjoyed the party. Swaying to the live music and enjoying the attention from television and newspaper re-porters.

I have no secret, Kuhta said with a big smile and shake of the head. Im just shocked.

She said she never gave birthdays, or aging, a thought. Then she added that she has a great family that grew up together and vacationed to-gether.

Yet Kuhtas family was sur-prised she was so aware and engaged. They hadnt seen her that vibrant in months.

Mia Walden, Northpointes sales and marketing manager, said the facility has had more than a handful of centenari-ans over the years and is seeing more all the time. Currently Northpointe has a high popu-lation of 97- and 98-year-olds, largely because the facility of-fers one of the highest levels of care in Spokane, Walden said.

Between 1980 and 2010, there was a 65.8 percent in-crease in the number of Ameri-

can centenarians, according to the Census Bureau. Currently, people older than 85 make up the fastest growing segment of the U.S. population.

Thanks to the baby boom-ers (1946-1964), from 2000 to 2030, the number of people 80 and older in the United States will double to 19.5 million, ac-cording to the Centers for Dis-ease Control and Prevention. A 2008 CDC article, lists surviv-al instructions for the oldest of the old:

- Stay active- Eat right- Avoid tobacco- Have social networks- Do cognitive activitiesIts the same advice given

for years. Yet longevity also requires resilience, which the article said in short means the ability to withstand stress. Self-reliance is a key factor of resil-ience, according to a Swedish study cited in the CDC article.

Both Kunkel and Kuhta have lived by these principles. They were both active and social. Kunkel always worked and eventually became a real es-

tate broker. Kuhta raised three boys, always ate healthy and started walking daily in her 50s.

Moms healthier than Ill ever be, said Kuhtas son Bob, 75, who has bad knees, two bouts with cancer and other health issues.

Dick Kunkel said his mom never thought she would live to her 90s, much less 100.

Id like to hope I have some of her genes, said Kunkel, who recently retired as Spokane

Public Radio general manager.Researchers are studying

centenarians more as people live longer, attempting to pin-point the biological, psycho-logical and sociological traits that allow some people to live decades longer than the gen-eral population. The National Institute on Aging has report-ed that exceptional longevity tends to run in families. It is also supporting more studies to learn more about the secret to a long, healthy life.

Earlier this year, 115-year-old Jeralean Talley of Michi-gan became the worlds oldest living person, according to the Gerontology Research Group. Talley, who was born May 23, 1899, attributes her longevi-ty to God.

Its coming from above, Talley told the Detroit Free Press. Thats the best advice I can give you. Its not in my hands or yours.

Bob Kuhta has some other advice, perhaps learned from his mother.

One day at a time, he said. Its just a good way to be.

CENTENARIANSContinued from Page 1

Between 1980 and 2010, there was a 65.8 percent increase in the number of American centenarians, according to the Census Bureau.

65.8%staying alive longerA 2008 CDC article lists survival instructions for the oldest of the old:

Stay active

Eat right

Avoid tobacco

Have social networks

Do cognitive activities

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Abby Phillip The Washington Post.

What is your risk of dying in the next five years? A pair of Swedish researchers have created a short questionnaire that may provide an answer.

To understand how this works, its important to first consider a few caveats.

Correlation and causation are not the same. In this case, the researchers have high-lighted correlations between risk of death and factors such as smoking and chronic health conditions. They arent fore-telling anyones death.

Then theres the question of who can use this tool to get an accurate result. If you are between the ages of 40 and

70 and you live in the United Kingdom, you are good to go. Others may find the detailed study from which the quiz was derived more useful than the quiz itself, which can be found at ubble.co.uk.

There are several interest-ing findings that could help doctors, public health officials and regular people ask ques-tions that may be relevant to ones health and longevity, at least for the next five years.

For example, the research-ers found that walking pace was a particularly strong pre-dictor of death risk - stronger, they said, than smoking hab-its and other lifestyle measure-ments. The researchers found

At risk of dying within 5 years?

See next page

Swedish scientists put together a questionnaire that factors in health to predict longevity

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that men age 40 to 52 who re-ported that their walking pace was slow were 3.7 times as likely to die within five years as those who reported a steady average pace.

The study was authored by Andrea Ganna, a biostatisti-cian at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, and Erik Ingels-son, a professor at Swedens Uppsala University.

Their findings suggest that a short questionnaire might be a good supplement to or poten-tially a replacement for a stan-dard physical examination for doctors and other health pro-fessionals to use in identify-ing people with high mortal-ity risk.

The survey asks 13 questions of men and 11 of women. A 59-year-old man, for instance, is asked how many people live in his household and whether they are related; a 59-year-old woman is asked how many children she has had; the man is asked about how many cars are in his household, the wom-an isnt; the man is asked about strokes, high blood pressure and heart attacks; the woman about nerves, anxiety, tension and depression. Questions for both sexes cover such topics as overall health, smoking hab-its, walking pace and whether a person has experienced ill-ness, injury, financial difficul-ty, marital issues or the loss of someone close.

Some factors, such as psy-

chological and socioeconomic variables, were strong predic-tors of death causes unrelated to physical health, including suicide or accidental fall.

Among people who didnt have major diseases, smoking habits were the strongest pre-dictor of risk of death within five years. For men, the most common cause of death was lung cancer; for women, it was breast cancer.

Overall, the results are rea-sonably good predictors of death within five years, the researchers said.

To create the survey, the re-searchers used the UK Bio-bank, which collected hun-dreds of data points from nearly 500,000 Britons be-tween 40 and 70. The research-

ers said they are the first to look at such a wide range of variables in such a large group.

To assess an individuals risk of dying within five years, the online quiz results are com-pared with nationwide data and the person is given an Ubble age. For example, if you are a 50-year-old man and the re-sults of the survey give you an age of 56, that means your risk of dying is similar to that of a

56-year-old man in the United Kingdom. It then tells you what that five-year risk of dying is.

The findings have been pub-lished in the journal Lancet. But this project is remarkable for how interactive and open it is. Anyone can use the tool to see how lifestyle and health factors affect risk of death. People can also look at the as-sociation between certain risk factors and age.

... Quiz can tell you, researchers say.Continued from previous page

Among people who didnt have major diseases, smoking

habits were the strongest predictor of risk of death within

five years. For men, the most common cause of death was

lung cancer; for women, it was breast cancer.

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Pilot Media - Caring For The Aging 2015

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