Pilbara rfa ea presentation v3.2 1

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Free Powerpoint Templates Page 1 Free Powerpoint Templates Pilbara Region Flood Frequency Analysis Review By Jim Davies and Edwin Yip JDA Date: 12 November 2012

Transcript of Pilbara rfa ea presentation v3.2 1

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Pilbara Region Flood Frequency Analysis Review

By Jim Davies and Edwin Yip

JDA

Date: 12 November 2012

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Outline of the Presentation

• Introduction

• Study Area and Flow Data

• Methodology and Results

• Conclusions

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Outline of the Presentation

• Introduction

• Study Area and Flow Data

• Methodology and Results

• Conclusions

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Outline of the Presentation

• Introduction

– Background

– Previous Studies

– Scope of this Study

– Source of Information

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Introduction

Background

•Regional method is for ungauged catchment flood estimation

•Frequency analysis is estimation of how often a specified event will occur

•Extreme environmental event such as floods, have severe consequences for society

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Introduction

Background (Cont.)

•Couple of advance statistical techniques were developed since the last two decades after the publication of ARR1987,

–L-moments were introduced in 1990’s.

•The aim of this study is to review the ARR1987 Index-flood Method of Pilbara utilizing:-

–advance statistical techniques, and

–flow measurement records up to 2012

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Introduction

Previous Studies

Estimation of design peak discharge for ungauged catchments:

• 1972 US Bulletin 17 – LPIII

• 1975 UK Flood Studies Report – GEV

• 1987 Australia AR&R – LPIII

• 1997 “Regional Frequency Analysis” – Complete Procedure

by Hosking & Wallis - L moments

- Screening of Data

- Regions

- Choice of Distribution

- Estimation of Frequency

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Introduction

Pilbara Region

Gascoyne Region (firm recommendations

of design discharges

were not made in

ARR1987)

Regions defined in ARR1987

Pilbara Region + Gascoyne Region

= Drainage Division 7

25 years out of date now

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Introduction

Pilbara Index-flood Method (ARR1987)

•was developed utilizing 13 stream gauging stations in Pilbara Region

•Methodology

– Annual Exceedance Series

– Log-Normal distribution (assumed the generalised skew coefficient was zero)

– Method of Product-Moments

– All 13 catchments to form one Pilbara region

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Introduction

Pilbara Index-flood Method (ARR1987) (Cont.)

•Frequency Factors are depending on:

– Catchment Area

– ARIs

ARI 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs 50 yrs

Area (km2)

Frequency Factors

1 0.55 1.00 1.58 2.40 3.90

10 0.52 1.00 1.70 2.77 4.90

100 0.50 1.00 1.81 3.20 6.30

1,000 0.48 1.00 1.94 3.70 7.90

10,000 0.46 1.00 2.08 4.25 9.90

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Introduction

Pilbara Index-flood Method (ARR1987) (Cont.)

•Index-flood:

– Design Discharge of 5-year ARI [m3/s]

Q5 = 6.73 x 10-4 A0.72 P1.51

•Parameters in Design Discharge Equation:

– Catchment factor: Catchment Area (A) [km2]

– Climatic factor: Average Annual Rainfall Depth over the Catchment Area (P) [mm]

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Introduction

L-Moments (Hosking & Wallis, 1997)

• Sample moment statistics especially skewness and Kurtosis not reliable (biased) as algebraically bounded.

• “L-moments” are linear combinations of order statistics – less subject to bias.

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Introduction

Software

•R-Project –with L-moments Packages “lmom” and “lmomRFA”

•The R-Project and L-moment Packages are freely available

–Website: http://www.r-project.org/

•J. R. M. Hosking is the developer and maintainer of the L-moment Packages

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Introduction

EA AR&R Revision Projects: Project 5

“Regional Flood Methods”

Stage 2 Report

PS/S2/015

June 2012

By University Of Western Sydney

To test generic techniques for all Australia

(WA Contributors: JR, NC, LP, MP, JG)

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Introduction

Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012,

General:

• RFFA methods preferred to PRM

• QRT and PRT perform similarly

• PRT preferred due to smoothness

• ROI outperforms fixed regions

• RFFA requires only area and design rainfall intensity data (easy and simple)

• Arid and semi-arid regions have insufficient data for RFFA; recommends simplified RFFA (4 regions)

• Trends will be analyzed in Stage III (expected to be adjustment of ARI’s

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Introduction

Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012

Western Australia Specific

–146 catchments (gauging stations) •Kimberley: 14 stations

•Pilbara: 12 stations

•South West: 120 stations

–Area Range 0.1 to 7,405 km2

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Introduction

Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012

• Pilbara Region 0.1 to 1,000 km2

• Fixed region (all 12 stations)

• QRT Q2, Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50, Q100

– Function of Catchment Area and Rainfall Intensity

• PRT M, S, G

– Function of Catchment Area, Rainfall Intensity, forest area, and stream density

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Introduction

Project 5 Stage 2 Report June 2012

Source: Rahman, A., Haddad, K., Zaman, M., Ishak, E., Kuczera, G. and Weinmann, P. E. (2012). Regional flood methods for Australia, ARR Revision Project 5 Stage 2 Report, Engineers Australia, Report No. P5/S2/015

Flow records from 12 gauging

stations in Drainage Division 7

were selected and analyzed in

“ARR Revision Projects -

Project 5 Regional Flood

Methods Stage II”

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Introduction

Scope of this Study

•To develop design equations for Index-flood (Q5) to estimate design peak discharges for ungauged catchments

–utilizing the updated stream flow measurement records

•To review the frequency factors of ARR1987 Index-flood method to Pilbara

–utilizing the updated stream flow measurement records

–utilizing advance statistical techniques

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Introduction

Scope of this Study (Cont.)

•To compare the design discharges between this study and other studies

–ARR1987

–“Design Flood Estimation in Western Australia” by David Flavell (2012) (Flavell 2012)

–“ARR Revision Projects - Project 5 Regional Flood Methods Stage II” by Ataur Rahman and others (2012) (ARR P5 S2)

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Introduction

Source of Information

•Department of Water

– Daily maximum flow measurement records

– Location of stream gauging stations

•Bureau of Meteorology

– Average Annual Rainfall Depth

•ARR1987

– Design Rainfall Intensity

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Outline of the Presentation

• Introduction

• Study Area and Flow Data

• Methodology and Results

• Conclusions

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Study Area and Flow Data

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Study Area and Flow Data

Study Area

•Whole Drainage Division 7 (i.e. Division of Indian Ocean) including 10 River Basins as listed follow:-

– Greenough River (701),

– Murchison River (702),

– Wooramel River (703) ,

– Gascoyne River (704),

– Lyndon-Minilya Rivers (705),

– Ashburton River (706),

– Onslow Coast (707),

– Fortescue River (708),

– Port Hedland Coast (709), and

– De Grey River (710)

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Study Area and Flow Data

706 - Ashburton River

702 - Murchison River

703 - Wooramel River

704 - Gascoyne River

705 - Lyndon-Minilya

Rivers

701 - Greenough River

707 - Onslow Coast

709 - Port Hedland Coast

710 - De Grey River

708 - Fortescue River

- Selected Stations (60)

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Study Area and Flow Data

Source: Flavell, D. 2012, “Design flood estimation in Western Australia”, Australian Journal of Water Resources, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 1-20, http://dx.doi.org/10.7158/W11-865.2012.16.1 .

Yule River (1975)

Sherlock River (1984) Portland River (1984)

Nullagine River (2002)

Sherlock River (1971)

Robe River (2009)

Fortescue River (2004)

Ashburton River

(1997)

Maximum Floods in Pilbara Region

World Maximum Flood

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Study Area and Flow Data

Rank Catchment Area (km2)

River Gauging

Station No.

1 (largest) 86,777 Murchison River 702001

2 74,432 Gascoyne River 704139

3 71,387 Ashburton River 706003

4 71,212 Gascoyne River 704193

5 69,278 Gascoyne River 704194

6 50,007 De Grey River 710003

7 43,098 Ashburton River 706209

8 34,775 Gascoyne River 704195

9 29,752 Fortescue River 708006

10 19,613 Lyons River 704196

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Study Area and Flow Data

Rank Catchment Area (km2)

River Gauging

Station No.

51 198 Sthn Fortescue River 708004

52 174 Robe River 707001

53 128 Tanberry Creek 709006

54 78 Sherlock River 709009

55 77 Five Mile Creek 710002

56 50 Harding River 709002

57 49 Harding River 709007

58 41 Kanjenjie Creek Trib. 708009

59 34 Buller River 701006

60 (smallest) 0.13 Nokanena Brook Catch

701601

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Study Area and Flow Data

Design Rainfall Intensity from ARR1987 [mm/hr] (1hour duration, 2-years ARI)

35

30

27.5

25

22.5

20

20

18 16

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Study Area and Flow Data

DoW Hydrographic Work – Rating Curve

•“Water Depth” vs “Flow Discharge” derivation using discharge measurement and HEC-RAS modelling

•See paper in AHA Conference 2010 Perth by:-

–Michael Harris and Leith Bowyer

–Ross Doherty

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Study Area and Flow Data

Ashburton River

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Study Area and Flow Data

Ashburton River

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Study Area and Flow Data

Maitland River

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Study Area and Flow Data

Maitland River

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Outline of the Presentation

• Introduction

• Study Area and Flow Data

• Methodology and Results

• Conclusions

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Extreme Discharges

1)Extract the AM series of stations in study area from flow measurement data of DoW

–The quality of the measurement records were reviewed, poor quality records were discarded

–The data in AM series was reviewed to ensure no two sequent data is due to same storm event

–Only the stations with AM series containing at least 10 years of data are selected in this study

(60 out of 90 stream gauging stations were selected in this study)

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)

2)Divided 3 hydrological regions according to catchment areas, the 3 regions are (after Hosking and Wallis

(1997)):-

–Small Area Region (19 gauging stations) – “S”:

•catchment area ≤ 1,000 km2

–Medium Area Region (25 gauging stations) – “M”:

•1,000 km2 < catchment area ≤ 10,000 km2

–Large Area Region (16 gauging stations) – “L”:

•catchment area > 10,000 km2

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Methodology and Results

Hosking and Wallis (1997), page 180

“Nonetheless, we emphatically reject the possibility of

performing regional frequency analysis with the entire set of sites being treated as a single region. The main reason is that the theory and practice of hydrology imply that the frequency distribution is likely to depend on the drainage area of the basin. Regional frequency analysis should therefore be applied only to regions whose basins cover a fairly small range of drainage area.”

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Methodology and Results

Hosking and Wallis (1997), page 180

“A further point is that in regional frequency analysis

there is little to be gained by using regions containing more than about 20 sites. A reasonable starting point for regional frequency analysis would therefore be a subdivision of the set of sites, according to their drainage areas, into groups of not much more than 20.”

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)

3)Sub-divide regions “S”, “M”, and “L” according to their statistical homogeneity,

– Gauging stations with H-statistic < 2.0 were considered that they could belong to same sub-region

– The number of stations in each sub-regions should not be much more than 20

– discordance test based on L-moment ratios was performed to ensure no existence of discordancy dataset in sub-regions

(sub-regions S1 to S3; M1 to M3; L1 to L3; were formed)

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)

4)Best-fitted frequency distribution for each sub-regions

– The best-fitted frequency distribution was considered to be the one with the smallest absolute value of Z-statistic

– Candidate frequency distributions are:-

• Generalized Logistic,

• Generalized Extreme Value,

• Generalized Normal,

• Pearson Type III, and

• Generalized Pareto

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Methodology and Results

Sub-Region Name

Selected Gauging Stations

H-Statistic (< 2.0)

Best-fitted Distribution (Z-Statistic) (close to 0)

S-1

706207*, 709002, 709006, 709007, 709009, 709010, 710004

1.326 Pearson Type III

(0.108)

S-2 701003, 701004, 701005, 701006, 701601, 704002

1.733 Generalized

Logistic (-0.350)

S-3 704001, 704003, 704004, 707001, 708009, 708227

1.682 Generalized

Pareto (1.384)

* see later plot

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Methodology and Results

Sub-Region Name

Selected Gauging Stations

H-Statistic (< 2.0)

Best-fitted Distribution (Z-Statistic) (close to 0)

M-1

703001, 705001, 705002, 707005, 710001, 710204, 710229

0.520 Generalized

Pareto (2.826)

M-2

701007, 701008, 701009, 701010, 701013, 701014, 707002, 707004, 708001, 708011, 708013, 708014, 708016

0.931 Generalized

Logistic (-0.172)

M-3 709001, 709003, 709004, 709005, 709008

0.010 Pearson Type III

(0.671)

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Methodology and Results

Sub-Region Name

Selected Gauging Stations

H-Statistic (< 2.0)

Best-fitted Distribution (Z-Statistic) (close to 0)

L-1 701002, 701011, 701012, 702001, 703002

0.548 Pearson Type III

(0.024)

L-2

704139, 704193, 704195, 704196, 706003, 706209, 710003

0.855 Generalized

Pareto (-0.260)

L-3 708002, 708003, 708015, 708223 1.195

Pearson Type III (0.998)

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Extreme Discharges (Cont.)

5)Estimate parameters of each selected station for their best-fitted frequency distribution

6)Estimate the extreme discharges (QY, Y = 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-year ARI) of every stations in each sub-regions

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Methodology and Results

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Frequency Factors

7)Define the peak discharge in 5-year ARI (i.e. Q5) as the “index-flood”, in regions “S”, “M”, and “L”

8)Make the peak discharges dimensionless by dividing them by Q5, (i.e. QY / Q5)

9)Calculate different Frequency Factors for different ARIs in each region,

– “Frequency Factor” is the mean of [QY / Q5] over all stations and in regions S, M, and L

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Methodology and Results

Medium Area Region

Small Area Region

Large Area Region

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Design Discharge Equation (Q5)

10)Catchment factors and climate factors for each selected station:-

–Catchment Area (A) [km2]

–Average Annual Rainfall Depth (P) over the catchment area between year 1946 to year 2005 [mm/year]

–Design Rainfall Intensity (IDuration, ARI) over catchment area [mm/hr] of ARI 2- and 50-year (1hr, 12hrs, 72hrs)

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Methodology and Results

Methodology - For Design Discharge Equation (Q5) (Cont.)

11)Develop design discharge equation for Design Discharges of 5-year ARI (Q5) in regions S, M & L using catchment factors and climate factors,

–Stepwise Variable Selection and Multiple Variables Linear Least Square Regression were performed

–The reasonability and simplicity of the design discharge equation are considered

–The number of climate and catchment factors kept to a minimum, they should also be easy to obtain by end-users.

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Methodology and Results

Results (Cont.)

For Small Size Region

(i.e. catchment area ≤ 1,000 km2)

Design Discharge Equation:

Q5 = 8.26*10-9 A0.703 I1hr,2yrs5.798

Frequency Factors:

ARI 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs 50 yrs 100 yrs

FF 0.34 1.00 1.64 2.43 3.84 5.37

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Methodology and Results

Design Equation of Q5 in “ARR Revision Projects - Project 5 Regional Flood Methods Stage II”

ln(Q5) = 3.90 + 0.48 [ln(A) – 4.71] + 7.20 [ln(I12hrs, 2yrs) – 1.47]

=> Q5 = 1.30x10-4 A0.48 I12hrs,2yrs7.20

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Methodology and Results

Results (Cont.)

For Medium Size Region

(i.e. 1,000 km2 < catchment area ≤ 10,000 km2)

Design Discharge Equation:

Q5 = 2.72*10-7 A0.797 I1hr, 50yrs3.506

Frequency Factors:

ARI 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs 50 yrs 100 yrs

FF 0.33 1.00 1.71 2.67 4.59 6.87

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Methodology and Results

Results (Cont.)

For Large Size Region

(i.e. catchment area > 10,000 km2)

Design Discharge Equation:

Q5 = 4.26*10-6 A0.783 I1hr, 50yrs2.815

Frequency Factors:

ARI 2 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs 50 yrs 100 yrs

FF 0.27 1.00 1.76 2.64 3.98 5.13

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Methodology and Results

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Methodology and Results

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Methodology and Results

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Methodology and Results

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Methodology and Results

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Outline of the Presentation

• Introduction

• Study Area and Flow Data

• Methodology and Results

• Conclusions

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Conclusions

Conclusions

•Design discharges from JDA 2012 can be applied to whole Drainage Division 7

– ARR1987 and Flavell 2012 cannot generate satisfactory design discharges in Gascoyne Region

– Doubt about equations from ARR P5 S2 can be applied in river basin 702, 703, 705, and 710

• No stations were selected at those river basins in the equations development

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Conclusions

Conclusions (Cont.)

•Design discharges from JDA 2012 can be applied to a wide range of catchment area

– ARR P5 S2 cannot generate satisfactory design discharges in large catchment area

• Stations with maximum catchment area of

1,000 km2 were selected

• The catchment areas in Pilbara are large in particular in downstream areas, say as large as 80,000 km2

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Conclusions

Conclusions (Cont.)

•The design equations of JDA 2012 is simple and easy to apply,

– only catchment area and design rainfall intensity are required in the design discharge equations

– The parameters are easy to obtain

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Conclusions

Conclusions (Cont.)

•ARR 1987 often over estimated the data (except river basins 709, 710)

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Study Area and Flow Data

706 - Ashburton River

702 - Murchison River

703 - Wooramel River

704 - Gascoyne River

705 - Lyndon-Minilya

Rivers

701 - Greenough River

707 - Onslow Coast

709 - Port Hedland Coast

710 - De Grey River

708 - Fortescue River

- Selected Stations (60)

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Conclusions

Conclusions (Cont.)

•Flavell (2012) may mis-represent due to changes to measured DoW Flow Data

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Conclusions

Conclusions (Cont.)

•Method will need recalibrate for revised IFD, published at H&WR Symposium November 2012

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End of Presentation