Pictet citiwire berlin

40
Pictet Asset Management November 2011 Pictet Total Return-Kosmos – A new global long/short credit fund FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY

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Transcript of Pictet citiwire berlin

Page 1: Pictet citiwire berlin

Pictet Asset Management

November 2011

Pictet Total Return-Kosmos –

A new global long/short credit fund

FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY

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2Pictet Total Return-KosmosPictet Asset Management

Pictet-High Dividend Selection

• Long-only equity strategy which has proven to be a safe haven in

turbulent markets for equity investors

– Focus on stable business structure enables solid cash flow

generation

– High and growing dividend income is a source of stable

investment returns

– Superior portfolio diversification with inflation protection

• Market and economic uncertainties did require a conservative

investment approach

– Positive yield spread to bonds a historic precursor for

outperformance

• Attractive fund features

– The fund continues to pay a monthly recurring dividend of 33

basis points of the original NAV

– Experienced management team with a proven track record in

Infrastructure investing

– Unique investment process ensures superior risk management

Conclusions drawn at

Citywire 2010 –

correct?

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-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

MSCI World Return

Diff

. of p

erfo

rman

ce

7 tim es/75 tim es

(Probability : approx.9%)

23 tim es /75 tim es

(Probability : approx.31%)

21 tim es/75 tim es

(Probability : approx.28%)

24tim es/75tim es

(Probability : approx.32%)

High resilience during market downturn

High Yield Utilities Equities tend to outperform in down markets

Global High Yield Utilities Equities vs MSCI World (total of 75 observations)

Performance Difference return of Pictet Global High Yield Utilities Equities – return of MSCI World (on a

monthly basis)

Pictet Global High Yield Utilities Equities: excluding costs and taxes; MSCI World: Net return

Source: Thomson Reuters Data Stream, Pictet Asset Management, MSCI; Monthly basis, Mar 2005-June 2011

21 times / 45 times (Probability:

Approx. 47%)

23 times / 30 times (Probability:

Approx. 77%)

7 times / 30 times (Probability:

Approx. 23%)

24 times / 45 times (Probability:

Approx. 53%)

YTD 1M 3M 6M 1Y

Pictet-High Dividend Selection-P EUR -3.77 2.50 -2.82 -2.83 -0.10

MSCI World Composite* -12.21 -1.96 -9.89 -11.39 -8.99

Peer group Median -9.87 -0.85 -8.17 -8.75 -2.22

Peer group Average -9.27 -0.77 -7.41 -8.08 -2.07

Source: Pictet Asset Management, as of 30.09.2011, performance net of fees

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Alphanatics

(Mkt neutral,

Multi-Mgr)

Corto

(Europe, SMID)

PTR-Mandarin

(China)

9/2004 7/2006 10/2010

Global L/S

(Macro)

Q3/2012

PTR-Banyan

(Asia ex-Japan)

Global L/S

(Trading)

Q1/2012

Europe Equity

Event Driven

Q2/2012

PTR-Corto

(Europe, SMID)

4/2010

Source: Pictet Asset Management, as at 30/09/2011

PTR-Kosmos

(Credit)

6/2011 11/2011

Total AuM: USD 1.8 bn

Hedge funds timeline at Pictet Asset Management

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Pictet Total Return-Kosmos

1

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Why credit long/short?

Why now?

• Global interest rates are low

and volatility remains high

• Market becomes more

discriminating in credit

assessment

• Good fit to UCITS

Compelling returns

Attractive absolute and risk-

adjusted returns in all market

conditions

Diversification benefits

Low correlation to long-only

equities and corporate bonds

Focus on alpha generation

Multitude of alpha sources

within credit

CDS & CDS Indices

Effective hedging instruments

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Hedges are responsive

CDS-Bond Basis has been volatile – but CDS remains an effective hedge

Insert here your graphs

and tables

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Source: Barclays, as of 04.11.2011

Basis (LHS)Barclays EUR Corporate Bond Index (RHS)

CDS Spread (RHS)

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Major credit indices implying a severe default cycle

Source: Moody’s, BNP Paribas, as of 07.11.2011

Assumed Recovery Rate: 40%

2.8

3.9

2.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1920

1922

1925

1928

1930

1933

1936

1939

1941

1944

1947

1950

1952

1955

1958

1961

1963

1966

1969

1972

1974

1977

1980

1982

1985

1988

1991

1993

1996

1999

2002

2004

2007

2010

Def

ault

Rat

es (

%)

Moody's Investment Grade issuer weighted annual default rate iTraxx Main implied annual default rate

iTraxx Fin Senior implied annual default rate CDX IG implied annual default rate

Historical real credit default rate versus today’s implied major indices’ default rate

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Implied default rates

3% AA; 26% A;

BBB 63%;

BB 7%

32% AA; 60% A;

8% BBB

10% AA; 40% A;

50% BBB

Rating breakdown

2.1

3.9

2.8

Annual BE default rate

(%)

125

25

125

# Constituents

2.6125CDX IG

1.0252iTraxx Senior Fins

3.5175iTraxx Main

Annual BE default rate

(# credits)Spread (bps)Index

Source: Moody’s, BNP Paribas, as of 07.11.2011

Assumed Recovery Rate: 40%

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Pictet Total Return-Kosmos

Credit alpha in all market

conditions

A management team

with extensive credit

experience &

complementary skill set

Developed the strategy

together for 10 years

Long/short portfolioActively managed relative

value trading strategy

Return target– Credit return between 6 and 10% p.a. (net of

fees) above Eonia

– over a 3 to 5 year investment horizon

– with a conservative volatility profile of 5 to 8%

Focus on liquidityInvesting in a wide range of global, liquid mainly

investment grade credit instruments

UCITS IIIcompliant with weekly liquidity

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Well-resourced environment

Credit Research

(6 credit analysts)

Equity Research(13 equity analysts)

Economic Analysis

(2 investment professionals)

Quantitative Analysis

(2 investment professionals)

Risk Management

(11 investment professionals)

Other Investment TeamsGlobal Bonds

Emerging Debt

European Investment Grade

European High Yield

Trade Executions(10 execution professionals in

Geneva and Singapore)

OperationsTransactional Processing

Portfolios Control & Validation

Raymond Sagayam

Senior Investment Manager

Kazik SwiderskiSenior Investment Manager

Maani Hariri

Portfolio Analyst

Pictet Total Return-Kosmos

INVESTMENT TEAM

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Performance PTR-Kosmos

0.4

0.4

EONIA

2.0Cumulative performance since inception1

2.010.2-0.10.90.80.212011

YTDDECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN%

1 Partial month/year. Performance net of fees of PTR-Kosmos-I EUR in EUR since inception 23.06.2011. Source: Pictet Asset Management, as at 31.10.2011.

0.2%Return for October

At a glance

EUR 148mFund size

2.0%YTD return1

-Volatility

2.0%Cumulative return since inception1

23 June 2011Inception

0Credit index options

18.5Credit derivatives indices

18.3Bonds

Gross exposure by asset type – longs in %

15.1CDS

0Credit index options

0Credit derivatives indices

0Bonds

Gross exposure by asset type – shorts in %

79.4CDS

79.4

51.9

%

11Long

Credit positions

21Short

Number

1 As a % of gross exposure

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Performance global long/short credit segment

12.0Cumulative performance since inception1

6.51.20.90.5-0.20.71.00.81.32011

5.20.61.52.30.72010

Total ReturnDECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN%

1The portfolio managers have been managing the long/short credit segment of Pictet’s multi-strategy market neutral hedge fund since September 2010. Inception date: 06.09.2010. Source: Pictet Asset

Management, as of 31.08.2011. Performance data are stated in EUR gross of fees

Correlation

----0.1vs Barclays Euro Agg Comp.

---0.8%EONIA

----0.1vs iBoxx Euro Index Worldwide

---0.0vs MSCI World

6.93.32.4%12.0%Global long/short credit segment

Sortino ratioSharpe ratioAnnualised volatilityReturn Since inception1

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Investment philosophy &

process

2

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Our key beliefs

Principles built through

experience

Credit alpha is enhanced by considering relative value globally

Agility reaps rewards – stay liquid, nimble and never ‘bigger than the market’

Risk parameters alone do not capture overall portfolio risk

Close scrutiny of behavioural drivers is key

Downside protection matters – often the best hedge is to close a position

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Focus on liquidity

Long positions

• Bonds (corporates, sovereigns,

financials, covered, convertibles1)

• CDS

• Credit derivatives indices2

Short positions

• CDS

• Credit derivatives indices2

• Credit index options

Hedging instruments

• Government bond futures, interest

rate swaps & interest rate futures

– to hedge interest rates risk• Spot and forward trades – to

hedge currency risk• Interest rate options

1Trading at their bond floor.2 Credit indices: e.g. iTraxx Europe, iTraxx HiVol, iTraxx Financials, Itraxx Asia ex-Japan, CDX NA

90% minimum in investment grade. No exposure to credit below BB-/Ba3

EXCLUDED INSTRUMENTS

Structured credit, ABS, tranched credit products, loans and unrated credits

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Trade example cross name/sector basis

Bangkok Bank

One of the leading Thai banks

New issue of 5 and 10yr USD

bonds

Scarcity of Asian bank bonds outside Korea

and Thailand

Low supply expectations for bank sector in

Thailand

CDS trading at circa 87 bps (much tighter

than the two Bangkok Bank bonds) at the time

Possible future sovereign issuance in USD

remained

Met with president of Bangkok Bank

Above average disclosure/transparency

Threat of acquisitions remained, but confident

this would be financed prudently

Conviction score: 4

Thailand’s largest bank with approximately USD

60bn in assets

Well capitalised with acceptable loan

concentration and improving profits

TRADE IMPLEMENTATION ANALYSISMANAGEMENT QUALITY ANALYSISCREDIT FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

MACRO ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS

• Uncertain political situation in Thailand: Thai geopolitical component hedged via a Sovereign CDS

• Positive view on market conditions for commercial banks

Source: Pictet Asset Management, Bloomberg

Long risk : buy Bangkok Bank bond 5 and 10yr (A3/BBB+)

Short risk : buy Kingdom of Thailand 5yr CDS (Baa1/BBB+)

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Trade example CDS long-short

Two UK-domiciled companies

BAE Systems

GKN Plc

Likely exclusion of GKN Plc from the Itraxx

Crossover index

Took profit as soon as exclusion of GKN Plc was

announced

No perceived difference between the two

companies

Cyclical versus non-cyclical premium not

adequate across the market

BAE well placed in the mid-BBB rating

category, low level of leverage, strong balance

sheet

GKN Plc had high leverage and tight spread for

a below investment grade credit

TRADE IMPLEMENTATION ANALYSISMANAGEMENT QUALITY ANALYSISCREDIT FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

MACRO ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS

• Overall reduction in UK and US defense spending

• Benign macro environment as both are UK-domiciled corporates (non-Financials)

Source: Pictet Asset Management, Bloomberg

Long risk : sell 5yr CDS BAE Systems (Baa2/BBB+)

Short risk : buy 5yr CDS GKN Plc (Ba1/BB+)

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Trade example CDS long-short

Long risk: sell 5 yr CDS BAE Systems (Baa2/BBB+) / Short risk: buy 5yr CDS GKN Plc (Ba1/BB+)

Absolute CDS

spread levels

CDS spread

differential

Spread

summary

Source: Bloomberg

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Alpha sources

DIRECTIONAL /

RELATIVE

VALUE

Deliberate long or short view

ex. Long risk: buy Gerresheimer 2018 bonds

CROSS NAME /

SECTOR BASIS

Long bonds and short a different name via

CDS in an entirely different region or sector

ex. Long risk: buy Bangkok Bank bondsShort risk: buy Thailand CDS

RISK-

ADJUSTED

OVERALL

PORTFOLIO

FINANCIALS

RELATIVE VALUE

CDS

LONG/SHORT

CREDIT INDEX

LONG/SHORT

ACTIVE TRADING

EVENT-

DRIVEN

TRADES

NEGATIVE BASISLong bond and long CDS on the same name

to hedge the default risk

ex. Long risk: buy Experian 2020 EUR bonds vs short risk: buy CDS

Pairs across names in the financials space

and also across the capital structure

ex. Long risk: buy HBOS 2017 USD Covered bonds vs short risk: buy Santander CDS

Long and short views are expressed through

CDS typically of the same maturity

ex. Long risk: sell 5 yr CDS BAEShort risk: buy 5yr CDS GKN

Insufficient single-name ideas on the long or

short side or aiming at reducing directional risk

ex. Long/short risk: Itraxx Fin Senior, Itraxx Asia Ex-Japan

Short time horizon (1 day/1week) which

capitalise on near-term dislocations and

arbitrage opportunities

ex. Long risk. buy IPIC bonds in euro and $

Longer time horizon (3-6 months) incorporating

M&A themes, LBO risk, bond buyback activity and

other types corporate action

ex. Long risk: buy E.ON GBP bonds

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Investment process summary

INVESTMENT

UNIVERSESearch for

catalyst

CREDIT FUNDAMENTAL

ANALYSIS

MANAGEMENT

QUALITY ANALYSIS

100+ p.a.

meetings with senior

management

Regular review of

conviction score

TRADE

IMPLEMENTATION

ANALYSIS

Market technicals

Behavioural

considerations

MACRO ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS

FINAL PORTFOLIO

40-100long & short

positions

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Typical portfolio exposure

* Excluding extreme market conditions - These figures represent anticipated typical exposure and not limits. Leverage in the portfolio is achieved through repos, deposits and credit derivatives. Leverage

is computed by adding the notional long and short exposures. The aim is to operate at under 4x the capital base using this approach.

Credit

50-150%Long positions

75-200%Short positions

200-300%Gross exposure*

±25%Net exposure*

The fund is denominated in EUR. Currency risk is hedged using forward and spot tradesCurrency risk

Interest rate risk is hedged using government bond futures and interest rate swapsInterest rate risk

Synthetic exposure via CDS, credit derivatives indices and credit index optionsShort exposure

Total positions (40-100). Number of longs and shorts are approximately equalNumber of positions

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PTR-Kosmos

Net exposure evolution

Source: Pictet Asset Management, as of 31.10.2011

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

30.0

6.11

20.0

7.11

09.0

8.11

29.0

8.11

18.0

9.11

08.1

0.11

28.1

0.11

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Risk management

3

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25Pictet Total Return-Kosmos

ACTIVE

STOP-LOSS

APPROACH

DAILY PORTFOLIO

MONITORING USING

CUSTOMISED ‘RISK

METRICS’

PORTFOLIO RISK

ACTIVELY MANAGED

AT GROSS AND NET

LEVEL

RIGOROUS RISK

MONITORING

INDEPENDENT RISK

& COMPLIANCE

MONITORING

Risk management

LIQUIDITY &

CONCENTRATION

RISK

INDIVIDUAL CREDIT

BETA & DURATION

MACRO RISK

FACTORS

MONITORING

Focus on individual credit beta

and duration to ensure that

directional risk is managed

INVESTMENT TEAM

PAM RISK CONTROL

TEAM

FIXED INCOME RISK

TEAM

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VaR evolution Pictet Total Return-Kosmos

Since inception, well below UCITS VaR limit of 20%

Source: Pictet Asset Management, as of 31.10.2011

%Var 99% 1 month

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.4027

.06.

2011

11.0

7.20

11

25.0

7.20

11

08.0

8.20

11

22.0

8.20

11

05.0

9.20

11

19.0

9.20

11

03.1

0.20

11

17.1

0.20

11

31.1

0.20

11

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VaR evolution global long/short credit segment

Global long/short credit segment* – Since inception, well below UCITS VaR limit of 20%

*The portfolio managers have been managing the long/short credit segment of Pictet’s multi-strategy market neutral hedge fund since September 2010. Inception date: 06.09.2010

Source: Pictet Asset Management, as of 16.09.2011

VAR 99% 1 month

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.0010

.09.

2010

10.1

0.20

10

10.1

1.20

10

10.1

2.20

10

10.0

1.20

11

10.0

2.20

11

10.0

3.20

11

10.0

4.20

11

10.0

5.20

11

10.0

6.20

11

10.0

7.20

11

10.0

8.20

11

10.0

9.20

11

%

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Active stop-loss approach

Often the best hedge is to

close a position

Disciplined about cutting

losses but acknowledge that

premature cuts can impact

performance

Daily return distribution – Global long/short credit segment*

*The portfolio managers have been managing the long/short credit segment of Pictet’s multi-strategy market neutral hedge fund since

September 2010. Inception date: 06.09.2010

Source: Pictet Asset Management, as of 7.11.2011

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Portfolio

4

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Positioning PTR-Kosmos

0.018.5Index

0.00.0Energy

8.20.0Technology

0.0

11.8

0.0

10.2

8.7

15.2

16.8

5.3

3.3

0.0

Short

0.0Utilities

7.0Government

0.0Media

0.0Industrial

14.2Financial

0.0Consumer, Non-Cyclical

0.0Consumer, Cyclical

12.3Communications

0.0Basic Materials

Long

Sector breakdown in %

0.0Auto

0.018.5Index

0.0

39.7

39.7

0.0

0.0

Short

0.0BB

4.1BBB

19.2A

3.5AA

Long

Credit breakdown in %

6.6AAA

Source: Pictet Asset Management, as of 31.10.2011.

19.212.3North America

3.6

8.2

4.8

0.0

43.6

Short

3.6Asia

3.5MENA

7.5Central & Eastern Europe

0.0LatAm

Long

Regional breakdown in %

25.1Europe

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Conclusion

5

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Pictet Total Return-Kosmos

A true long / short product

investing in a wide range of

global, liquid mainly

investment grade credit

instruments

A management team with

extensive credit experience

and complementary skill

set (developed the strategy

together for 10 years)

An all market conditions

strategy

UCITS compliant with

weekly liquidity

LONG/SHORT STRATEGY INVESTMENT TEAMALL WEATHER LEGAL FRAMEWORK

Concluding messages

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Pictet Total Return-Kosmos

HP CHF

HP GBP

HI GBP*

HI CHF*

HP USD

HI USD*

P GBP

I GBP*

P EUR

I EUR*

Class

LU0635022196

LU0635021891

LU0635021628

LU0635021974

LU0635021545

LU0635021388

LU0635021206

LU0635021115

LU0635021032

LU0635020901

ISIN Code

0.45%1.10%

0.45%1.60%

0.45%1.60%

0.45%1.10%

0.45%1.60%

0.45%1.10%

0.40%1.60%

0.40%1.10%

0.40%1.60%

Adm & Custody FeesManagement Fee

0.40%1.10%

(*) Minimum initial investment: EUR 1,000,000 or equivalent converted to USD/GBP/CHF on the date of NAV calculation

Technicals • Reference currency: EUR

• Legal status: Luxembourg SICAV - Part I - UCITS IV compliant

• EU Saving Directive: in scope - tax

• NAV calculation: weekly on Friday

• Notice period: 5 business days prior to NAV (5pm on Friday, Luxembourg time)

• Performance fee: 20% with high watermark

• Hurdle rate: Eonia

• Launch date: 23 June 2011 (NAV = EUR 100)

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Appendices

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Investment process summary

INVESTMENT

UNIVERSESearch for

catalyst

CREDIT

FUNDAMENTAL

ANALYSIS

• Industry, competition

analysis

• Capital structure

• Financial

performance

• Credit rating

MANAGEMENT

QUALITY ANALYSIS

• Coherent business

strategy

– Quality

– Transparency

– Corporate

vision

• Bondholder vs.

shareholder focus

100+ p.a.

meetings with senior

management

Regular review of

conviction score

TRADE

IMPLEMENTATION

ANALYSIS

• Use of technical

factors to decide on

timing of entry,

sizing and exit

• Confirmation bias,

anchoring issues,

herd behaviour,

overconfidence

Market technicals

Behavioural

considerations

• Global, liquid mainly

investment grade

credit instruments

• Credit rating ≥ BB-

/Ba3

MACRO ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS

FINAL PORTFOLIO

• Optimal risk/reward

profile

• Risk management

40-100long & short

positions

In house credit &

equity research

External brokers

& investment

banks

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Fixed income risk team – Process overview

REGULAR RISK REVIEWS

Our risk approach is driven by risk

principles

• Risk target

• Risk limit

• Diversification

Daily risk reports

• Summary report

– Horizontal view across all

portfolios

– Annual volatility, Monte Carlo

VaR

• Risk attribution report

– Focus on a specific portfolio

– Detailed views: IR risk, spread

risk, Forex risk, country riskBacktesting

Portfolio

& risk

data

Risk

modelRISK

SYSTEM

A dedicated risk management

team for the fixed income unit

Proprietary risk model implementation

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Fixed income risk team – Activities

In-depth performance attribution by sources of alphaIn depth risk budgeting analysis, level of risk consumption

versus risk target, split by alpha sources

Monthly /

Quarterly

Analysis of weekly variations

• Alerts to fund managers and Head of Fixed Income

• Identification of most important sources of

out/underperformance

Analysis of current risk level, diversification, consistency

within the same investment team

– Risk evolution graphs

– Boxplots

– Risk analysis graphs by sector/country

– Concentration analysis

Weekly

Monitoring of the daily performance

• Alerts to fund managers

• Analysis of abnormal variations

Control of risk limits and pick up of portfolios to focus on

• Summary report

• Risk Attribution report

Daily

Performance monitoringMarket risk monitoring

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Global long/short credit segment – Risk analysis example

Evolution by risk type Risk contribution by sector

*The portfolio managers have been managing the long/short credit segment of Pictet’s multi-strategy market neutral hedge fund since September 2010. Inception date: 06.09.2010

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Investment team

Raymond SagayamSenior Investment Manager

Total Return Credit

Raymond Sagayam joined Pictet Asset

Management in 2010 and is a Senior Investment

Manager.

Before joining Pictet, Raymond was a Managing

Director with Swiss Re Asset Management, head of

dollar and euro investments, focusing on credit

relative value strategies. Prior to this he worked for

Bank Brussels Lambert (ING) trading US Credit.

He has traded credit across all major geographies

and began his career at ING Barings in Emerging

Markets in 1997.

Raymond holds a BSc in Economics from the

London School of Economics & Political Science

(LSE) and a MA in Contemporary Theology in the

Catholic Tradition from the Heythrop College,

University of London. He is also a CFA

charterholder.

Kazik SwiderskiSenior Investment Manager

Total Return Credit

Kazik Swiderski joined Pictet Asset Management

in 2010 and is a Senior Investment Manager in

the Total Return Credit team.

Before joining Pictet, Kazik was a Managing

Director with Swiss Re where he established the

global proprietary credit trading business in 2001.

As of mid 2008 he was given the responsibility of

managing the Swiss Re Asset Management London

credit team. He started his career at Société

Générale (1984) where he ran several trading

desks. In 1996 he worked at Nomura London as a

proprietary trader, and then in 1998 he joined

ABN Amro to run the asset swap trading group.

Maani Hariri Portfolio Analyst

Total Return Credit

Maani Hariri joined Pictet Asset Management in

2011 and is a Portfolio Analyst in the Total Return

Credit team

Before joining Pictet, he was Risk Manager at

Sorrell Capital and Investment Analyst at

Gyldmark Investment Management in London.

Maani holds a BSc in Finance from the New York

University, Stern School of Business.

Page 40: Pictet citiwire berlin

40Pictet Total Return-KosmosPictet Asset Management

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