Pib

1

1. Main trends in the economy

Surprisingly fast GDP dynamic in Q4 2013 as industry and agriculture had an impressive performance

Real GDP expanded by 5.2% yoy and 1.5% qoq in Q4 2013. This

was substantially above our expectations (2.9% yoy and 0.2% qoq)

and market consensus (2.8% yoy and 0.3% qoq).

Real GDP excluding agriculture - our preferred measure to track

aggregate tendency of activity in case of Romania as it less impacted

by swings in agricultural output as a result of volatile weather

conditions - expanded by 3.7% yoy and by 1.0% qoq in Q4 2013,

which also outpaced our expectations (1.8-1.9% yoy).

Both the annual and quarterly GDP dynamics were exclusively

supported by agriculture (38.2% yoy, 5.6% qoq) and industry

(12.6% yoy, 2.7% qoq). For instance, agriculture had a contribution of

1.7 pp and industry had a contribution of 3.5 pp to the annual GDP

growth rate of 5.2% yoy in Q4 2013. So, the two sectors explain

100% the annual GDP dynamics. While all available data suggest the

industry had a good performance throughout the year 2013, very fast

dynamics in the second half of 2013 (9.0% yoy in Q3 and 12.6% yoy

in Q4) is however surprising. In fact, the annual growth rate of gross

value added in industry in Q4 2013 (+12.6%) is by far the highest

starting 2001. Having this very good performance of industry at a time

when the level of global economic activity remained depressed and

when domestic demand was weak was unexpected. Exports increased

quite fasts and they were the main drivers of activity in industry. The

agriculture performed also better than we expected in Q4 2013. The

fast dynamics was the result of a favorable statistical base effect (very

low level of agricultural output in 2012) and of good crops (above

multiannual average) in 2013. However, as we shown in one of our

reports (Economic Overview Romania Issue 12/2013) the agricultural

year 2013 was not an exceptional one as 2004 or 2011.

Otherwise, gross value in the remaining sectors (construction,

private and public services) fell marginally in Q4 from Q3 2013.

There was acceleration in household consumption spending in

Q4 2013 (3.2% yoy). Available surveys suggest that there was an

improvement in households appetite for spending in Q4 2013.

However, we recall that household consumption spending in the

national accounts includes also self-consumption of agricultural

products by households living in the rural area. The fast increase in

agriculture should have resulted in a fast increase of this component as

well.

Real GDP excluding agriculture

Source: estimates by Raiffeisen RESEARCH based on gross data published by the National Institute of Statistics

Gross value added in industry

Source: NIS, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

02

Q4

03

Q4

04

Q4

05

Q4

06

Q4

07

Q4

08

Q4

09

Q4

10

Q4

11

Q4

12

Q4

13

Q4

Real GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy)

7.3% per year

2.1% per year

12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4

% yoy 3.7 2.3 2.3 0.9 2.6 3.7

% qoq 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.1 1.0


12.6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

01

Q4

02

Q4

03

Q4

04

Q4

05

Q4

06

Q4

07

Q4

08

Q4

09

Q4

10

Q4

11

Q4

12

Q4

13

Q4

Gross value added in industry (% yoy)

2

National accounts Romania

Domestic demand excluding inventories and GDP

Note: Domestic demand excluding inventories = consumption (private and public) + gross fixed capital formation (private and public)

Source: estimates by Raiffeisen RESEARCH based on gross data published by the National Institute of Statistics

Change in inventories (% of GDP, nominal terms)

Note: ratio computed based on seasonally adjusted data

Source: NIS, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Gross value added in agriculture

Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

In our view, a large negative surprise was provided by the large fall in

gross fixed capital formation (-10.8% yoy and -5.7% qoq) and by

fall of public consumption spending (-7.1% yoy and -4.6% qoq). The

increase in household consumption was not enough to offset for decrease

in gross fixes investments and public consumption and so domestic

demand excluding changes in inventories fell in Q4 2013. In fact,

annual dynamics of domestic demand excluding changes in inventories

remained in the negative territory throughout 2013 in spite of fast positive

GDP dynamics (see the chart on the left side).

Spike in inventories in Q4 2013 had a very large contribution (4.1

percentage points) to the annual GDP growth rate (5.2%). Our

assessment is that the quarterly GDP growth rate received also a boost

from jump in inventories. Inventories increased in Q4 2013 for the first

time in the last six quarters.

Driven exclusively by industry, real GDP excluding agriculture - our

preferred measure to track tendency of activity in case of Romania -

advanced by 2.4% in 2013. Thanks to the large positive contribution

from agriculture (1.1 percentage points), overall GDP expanded by 3.5%

in 2013. However, domestic demand excluding inventories fell by 1.2%

in 2013.

We assume that better than expected performance in Q4 2013 was

supported by transitory factors (i.e. agricultural output, spike in

inventories, and impressive dynamics of industry). So, the quarter set a

high base for Q1 2014 when these factors would not be anymore in

place. In this case, a negative quarterly GDP growth rate should not be

excluded in Q1 2014. However, we expect the real GDP excluding

agriculture to remain on an upward trend this quarter. If the GDP would

fall in Q1 2014, this should not be a sign of concern. Our assessment

is that economic activity remains on an upward trend.

For the time being, we maintain unchanged at 2.3% our GDP forecast for

2014. Real GDP excluding agriculture might advance by 2.6% in

2014. We assume now a slight contraction (-2.0%) in gross value added

in agriculture this year. The dynamics is consistent with a return of

agricultural aggregate production to its multi-annual average level (so we

assume a close to normal agricultural year in 2014).

Faster dynamics in 2014 for real GDP and real GDP excluding

agriculture should not be excluded especially if the performance in Q1

2014 would beat our expectations. This can be the case if the increase in

inventories in Q4 2013 was not only temporary but it anticipated the

rebounding in activity.

Important notes:

The following report is based on second estimates for dynamics of GDP and

of its components in Q4 2013 as released by the National Institute of

Statistics on 5 March 2014. Third estimates will be released on 2 April

2014. We believe revisions would be small at that time and would not alter

the main findings of current analysis.

Current quarterly time series for dynamics of GDP and of its components

incorporate revisions for 2011 and for 2012. Accordingly, compared with

the previous report, there are differences both in case of quarterly growth

rates (seasonally adjusted) but also in case of annual growth rates (gross

data).

5.2

-2.0

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

08

Q4

09

Q4

10

Q4

11

Q4

12

Q4

13

Q4

Real GDP (% yoy)

Domestic demand excluding inventories (% yoy)

12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4

% yoy 3.5 -0.5 -1.1 -1.1 -0.5 -2.0

% qoq 0.4 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -1.2

Domestic demand excl. inventories' change

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08Q4 09Q4 10Q4 11Q4 12Q4 13Q4

Change in inventories (% of GDP)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

E

GVA in agriculture (index, 2003=100)

Average 1995-2013

3


Dynamics of real GDP and its components (estimates of the National Statistical Office)

12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4

Real GDP -0.6 0.8 2.1 1.4 4.2 5.2 -0.9 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.5

Real GDP without agriculture 3.7 2.3 2.3 0.9 2.6 3.7

Domestic demand without inventories 3.5 -0.5 -1.1 -1.1 -0.5 -2.0

- Household expenditures 1.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 1.9 3.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4

- Government expenditures 1.7 -0.7 4.8 -5.8 -6.9 -7.1 2.5 -3.5 2.6 -6.9 1.3 -4.6

- Gross fixed capital formation 7.8 -2.7 -9.5 -2.2 -2.1 -10.8 0.2 -0.7 -3.4 0.9 -2.2 -5.7

Domestic demand with inventories 0.1 0.8 -1.8 -3.7 0.0 2.0

Inventories' contribution to GDP

(percentage points) -3.5 1.3 -0.8 -2.8 0.5 4.1

Exports -3.8 -2.3 8.0 8.6 20.3 13.7 -3.1 3.9 7.2 -0.3 7.2 0.5

Imports -1.7 -1.9 -0.1 -3.4 8.0 4.6 -3.1 -0.2 1.7 -1.6 6.3 -1.5

Net exports' contribution to GDP

(percentage points)) -0.7 -0.1 4.1 5.4 4.2 3.1

Gross value added (GVA)* -1.1 0.7 1.2 2.0 4.8 6.1 0.7 -0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.6

- agriculture -29.8 -24.0 -3.3 17.0 21.1 38.2 -1.1 -2.5 7.6 6.1 2.9 5.6

- industry -0.9 -1.3 1.2 6.9 9.0 12.6 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.4 2.4 2.7

- construction 7.9 2.3 -4.9 -5.8 1.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -1.4 -0.7 1.4 -0.8

- services* 6.4 5.1 2.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.3 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 0.8 -1.2

-private services* 8.0 6.5 1.8 -0.8 -0.6 0.7 1.8 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.8 -1.2

-public services 0.9 0.2 2.7 -1.8 -0.7 -1.2 -1.0 2.2 -0.2 -1.3 0.8 -1.3

Net taxes 3.1 1.2 7.9 -2.2 -0.2 -1.3 0.5 0.6 2.4 -4.4 0.9 -1.1

Annual changes (% yoy, gross data) Quarterly changes (% qoq, seasonally adjusted)**

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Important notes:

* Seasonally adjusted time series for total gross value, services and private services are computed as sum of their components which have been previously seasonally adjusted using individual models. However, seasonally adjusted time series for GDP is derived globally using a specific seasonal adjustment procedure, and so it is not the sum of its components. So, there could be discrepancies between dynamics of total GDP and its components (gross value added and net taxes). ** There might be important revisions in quarterly growth rates of GDP and its main components once new data become available. For several GDP components, the seasonal adjustment models proved very unstable over the past years and revisions were quite important.

4


2. Contribution of sectors to GDP dynamics

Contributions (in percentage points) to YOY growth rate in real GDP

Contributions (in percentage points) to YTD growth rate in real GDP


3. Contribution of domestic and external demand to GDP dynamics

Contributions (in percentage points) to YOY growth rate in real GDP

Contributions (in percentage points) to YTD growth rate in real GDP


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

10

Q4

11

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

12

Q1

12

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q4

13

Q1

13

Q2

13

Q3

13

Q4

Private services Industry

Construction Public services

Agriculture Net taxes

Real GDP (%, yoy)

1.1

2.3

-0.1

0.1 0.1

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

Agriculture Industry Construction Services Net taxes

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

10

Q4

11

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

12

Q1

12

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q4

13

Q1

13

Q2

13

Q3

13

Q4

Private consumption Gross fixed investments

Public consumption Net exports

Change in inventories Real GDP (%, yoy)

0.9

-0.6

-1.5

0.6

4.1

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

11

20

12

20

13

Private consumption

Public consumption

Gross fixed investments

Change in inventories

Net exports

5


4. Stylized trends for quarterly dynamics of GDP and its components

Real GDP


Note: in-house seasonally adjusted data

GVA in agriculture

GVA in industry

GVA in construction

GVA services (private, public)

Note: computed as sum of its components

Note: GVA = gross value added

Household consumption expenditure

* includes self-consumption of agricultural products by households in rural area

Public consumption expenditure

Gross fixed capital formation

* both public and private


-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

112

115

118

121

124

127

130

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Real GDP (% qoq)

Real GDP (05 Q1 =100)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

112

115

118

121

124

127

130

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

GDP excluding agriculture (% qoq, RHS)

GDP excluding agriculture (05 Q1 =100)

-12

-6

0

6

12

70

80

90

100

110

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

GVA in agriculture (% qoq, RHS)

GVA in agriculture (05 Q1 =100)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

106

110

114

118

122

126

130

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

GVA in industry (% qoq, RHS)

GVA in industry (05 Q1 =100)

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

140

155

170

185

200

215

230

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

GVA in construction (% qoq, RHS)

GVA in construction (05 Q1 =100)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

110

114

118

122

126

130

134

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

GVA in services (% qoq, RHS)

GVA in services (05 Q1 =100)

-6

-3

0

3

6

120

127

134

141

148

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Private consumption (% qoq, RHS)

Private consumption (05 Q1 =100)

-14

-7

0

7

14

60

75

90

105

120

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Public consumption (% qoq, RHS)

Public consumption (05 Q1 =100)

-20

-12

-4

4

12

100

127

154

181

208

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Gross investments (% qoq, RHS)

Gross investments (05 Q1 =100)

6


Foreign trade balance in goods and services (% of GDP)

Note: computed based on national accounts data and RON equivalents; results can be slightly different from ones determined using data from the balance of payments (computed based on EUR equivalents)

Exports of goods and services

Exports and GVA in industry

Imports of goods and services


-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Foreign trade balance (% of GDP)

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

10Q4 11Q2 11Q4 12Q2 12Q4 13Q2 13Q4

Contributions (in percentage points) of exports and

imports to yoy growth rate in real GDP

Exports Imports Net exports

-10

-5

0

5

10

110

130

150

170

190

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Total exports (% qoq, RHS)

Total exports (05 Q1 =100)

110

115

120

125

130

100

125

150

175

200

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Total exports (05 Q1 =100)

GVA in industry (05 Q1 =100, RHS)

-12

-6

0

6

12

100

125

150

175

200

07Q4 09Q4 11Q4 13Q4

Total imports (% qoq, RHS)

Total imports (05 Q1 =100)

7


Note: Subcomponents might not sum exactely to the totals because of one decimal rounding Source: National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Annual growth rates for GDP and its components

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP (% yoy) 8.5 4.2 7.9 6.3 7.3 -6.6 -1.1 2.3 0.6 3.5

Uses side

Domestic demand (% yoy) 12.0 7.9 12.9 14.2 7.3 -12.0 -1.1 2.4 1.0 -0.6

Domestic demand excluding change in inventories (% yoy) 10.5 10.2 11.6 14.3 10.5 -13.2 -1.4 2.6 2.1 -1.2

Households' consumption (% yoy) 15.8 10.1 12.9 12.0 9.0 -10.4 -0.2 1.6 1.1 1.4

Public consumption (% yoy) -8.6 3.8 -4.1 -0.1 7.2 3.1 -4.7 -0.2 1.2 -4.1

Gross fixed capital formation (% yoy) 11.0 15.3 19.9 30.3 15.6 -28.1 -1.8 7.7 3.8 -5.7

Changes in inventories

Net exports

Exports (% yoy) 14.1 7.6 10.4 7.8 8.3 -6.4 13.2 11.6 -1.5 12.8

Imports (% yoy) 22.1 16.0 22.6 27.3 7.9 -20.5 11.1 10.5 -0.2 2.3

Supply side

Real GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy) 7.2 7.2 8.3 8.1 6.5 -6.8 -0.8 1.6 2.3 2.4

Industry (% yoy) 7.6 2.6 7.2 5.9 1.3 -1.4 4.0 0.4 -1.2 8.1

Construction (% yoy) 9.3 11.2 22.6 31.4 25.5 -9.9 -4.5 -18.7 1.9 -1.2

Servicii 6.4 8.7 6.8 6.9 5.6 -7.4 -3.6 5.3 4.6 0.1

Private services (% yoy) 10.4 10.6 12.5 8.9 6.5 -9.1 -3.8 6.7 5.8 0.2

Public services (% yoy) -5.5 2.4 -12.4 -0.4 2.2 -1.2 -2.6 0.8 0.5 -0.3

Net taxes (% yoy) 8.4 9.1 8.3 2.2 5.9 -12.6 4.6 6.1 2.6 0.6

Agriculture (% yoy) 18.7 -17.2 3.3 -15.0 20.8 -3.3 -5.5 14.0 -24.6 23.4

Contributions - in percentage points - to annual GDP growth rate

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP (% yoy) 8.5 4.2 7.9 6.3 7.3 -6.6 -1.1 2.3 0.6 3.5

Uses side

Domestic demand 12.9 8.6 14.2 15.9 8.3 -13.5 -1.1 2.6 1.0 -0.7

Domestic demand excluding change in inventories 11.2 10.9 12.9 15.9 11.9 -15.0 -1.5 2.7 2.1 -1.2

Households' consumption 10.3 6.8 8.8 8.1 5.9 -6.6 -0.1 1.0 0.7 0.9

Public consumption -1.7 0.6 -0.7 0.0 1.2 0.5 -0.9 0.0 0.2 -0.6

Gross fixed capital formation 2.4 3.3 4.7 7.8 4.7 -9.0 -0.4 1.9 1.0 -1.5

Changes in inventories 1.7 -2.3 1.4 0.0 -3.5 1.4 0.4 -0.2 -1.1 0.6

Net exports -4.4 -4.5 -6.3 -9.6 -1.0 7.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 4.1

Exports 4.9 2.7 3.5 2.5 2.4 -2.0 4.0 4.1 -0.6 5.2

Imports 9.3 7.2 9.8 12.1 3.4 -8.9 4.1 4.3 -0.1 1.1

Supply side

Real GDP excluding agriculture 6.3 6.3 7.6 7.5 6.2 -6.4 -0.8 1.5 2.2 2.3

Industry 1.9 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.3 -0.3 1.0 0.1 -0.3 2.3

Construction 0.6 0.7 1.6 2.5 2.4 -1.1 -0.5 -1.7 0.2 -0.1

Servicii 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.3 2.7 -3.6 -1.7 2.4 2.0 0.1

Private services 3.6 3.7 4.7 3.4 2.5 -3.5 -1.5 2.4 2.0 0.1

Public services -0.6 0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0

Net taxes 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.7 -1.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1

Agriculture 2.2 -2.2 0.3 -1.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.8 -1.6 1.1

8


Raiffeisen BANK Romania,

Research team:

Ionut Dumitru, PhD Chief Economist, +40-21-306-1269

Nicolae Covrig, PhD, CFA Financial Analyst, +40-21-306-1262

Gabriel Bobeica, PhD, FRM Financial Analyst, +40-21-306-1369

Anca Jelea Financial Analyst, +40-21-306-1265

This report was completed on 10 March 2014.

Disclaimer

This document is for information purposes and may not be reproduced or distributed to other persons. This document constitutes neither a solicitation of an offer nor a prospectus in the sense of the Austrian Capital Market Act (KMG) or the Stock Exchange Act or any other comparable foreign law. An investment decision in respect of a security, financial product or investment must be made on the basis of an approved, published prospectus or the complete documentation for the security, financial product or investment in question, and not on the basis of this document.

This document does not constitute a personal recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments in the sense of the Securities Supervision Act. Neither this document nor any of its components shall form the basis for any kind of contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is not a substitute for the necessary advice on the purchase or sale of a security, investment or other financial product. In respect of the sale or purchase of securities, investments or financial products, your banking advisor can provide individualised advice which is suitable for investments and financial products.

This analysis is fundamentally based on generally available information and not on confidential information which the party preparing the analysis has obtained exclusively on the basis of his/her client relationship with a person.

Unless otherwise expressly stated in this publication, RBI deems all of the information to be reliable, but does not make any assurances regarding its accuracy and completeness.

In emerging markets, there may be higher settlement and custody risk as compared to markets with established infrastructure. The liquidity of stocks/financial instruments can be influenced by the number of market makers. Both of these circumstances can result in elevated risk in relation to the safety of investments made on the basis of the information contained in this document.

The information in this publication is current, up to the creation date of the document. It may be outdated by future developments, without the publication being changed.

Unless otherwise expressly stated (http://www.raiffeisenresearch.at/specialcompensation), the analysts employed by Raiffeisen Bank International AG are not compensated for specific investment banking transactions. Compensation of the author or authors of this report is based (amongst other things) on the overall profitability of RBI, which includes, inter alia, earnings from investment banking and other transactions of RBI. In general, RBI forbids its analysts and persons reporting to the analysts from acquiring securities or other financial instruments of any enterprise which is covered by the analysts, unless such acquisition is authorised in advance by RBIs Compliance Department. RBI has put in place the following organisational and administrative agreements, including information barriers, to impede or prevent conflicts of interest in relation to recommendations: RBI has designated fundamentally binding confidentiality zones. Confidentiality zones are typically units within credit institutions, which are delimited vis--vis other units by organisational measures covering the exchange of information, because compliance-relevant information is continuously or temporarily handled there. Compliance-relevant information may fundamentally not leave a confidentiality zone and is to be treated as strictly confidential in internal business operations, including interaction with other units. This does not apply to the transfer of information necessary for usual business operations. Such transfer of information is limited, however, to what is absolutely necessary (need-to-know principle). The exchange of compliance-relevant information between two confidentiality zones may only occur with the involvement of the Compliance Officer. SPECIAL REGULATIONS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND (UK) AND JERSEY (CHANNEL ISLANDS): This publication has been approved or issued by Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) in order to promote its investment business. RBI London Branch is authorised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Details on the extent of the London branchs regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available on request. This publication is not intended for investors who are retail customers within the meaning of the FSA regulations and should therefore not be distributed to them. Neither the information contained in this document nor the opinions expressed herein constitute or are to be construed as an offer or a solicitation to purchase (or sell) investments. RBI may have effected own-account transactions within the meaning of the FSA regulations in any investment mentioned herein or related investments and may thus have a position or holding in such investments as a result. RBI may act or have acted as the manager or co-manager of a public offering of any security mentioned in this report or any related security. The RBI Jersey marketing representative office is not regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission as it does not perform any financial services in Jersey as defined by the Financial Services (Jersey) Law 1998 (FSJL). SPECIFIC RESTRICTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This document may not be transmitted to, or distributed within, the United States of America or Canada or their respective territories or possessions, nor may it be distributed to any U.S. person or any person resident in Canada, unless it is provided directly through RB International Markets (USA) LLC, a U.S. registered broker-dealer (RBIM), and subject to the terms set forth below. SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This research document is intended only for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards that may be applicable to research documents prepared for retail investors. This report was provided to you by RB International Markets (USA) LLC, a U.S. registered broker-dealer (RBIM), but was prepared by our non-U.S. affiliate, Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI). Any order for the purchase or sale of securities covered by this report must be placed with RBIM. You can reach RBIM at 1133 Avenue of the Americas, 16th Floor, New York, NY 10036, 212-600-2588. This document was prepared outside the United States by one or more analysts who may not have been subject to rules regarding the preparation of reports and the independence of research analysts comparable to those in effect in the United States. The analyst or analysts who prepared this research (i) are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) in the United States, and (ii) are not allowed to be associated persons of RBIM and are therefore not subject to FINRA regulations, including regulations related to the conduct or independence of research analysts. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of RBI only as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable by RBI, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBI or its affiliated companies or any other person as to the reports accuracy, completeness or correctness. Securities which are not registered in the United States may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within the United States or to U.S. persons (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933 [the Securities Act]), except pursuant to an exemption under the Securities Act. This report does not constitute an offer with respect to the purchase or sale of any security within the meaning of Section 5 of the Securities Act and neither shall this report nor anything contained herein form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This report provides general information only. In Canada it may only be distributed to persons who are resident in Canada and who, by virtue of their exemption from the prospectus requirements of the applicable provincial or territorial securities laws, are entitled to conduct trades in the securities described herein. If any term of this Disclaimer is found to be illegal, invalid or unenforceable under any applicable law, such term shall, insofar as it is severable from the remaining terms, be deemed omitted from this Disclaimer; it shall in no way affect the legality, validity or enforceability of the remaining terms. Publisher: Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH, A-1030 Wien, Am Stadtpark 9, Phone: +43 1 717 07 1521 Editorial Department: Raiffeisen RESEARCH / RBI, A-1030 Wien, Am Stadtpark 9, Phone: +43 1 717 07 - 1521

Pib

Documents

Transcript of Pib