Phillip Morning Market Call - POEMS · PDF file•S/L: Shift from 2,215 to 2,350 •S:...

Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research Division:

Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Jakarta:

Phillip Morning Market Call

Tuesday, May 12, 2015.8:30 – 8:50am

Gunawan Sutanto, Head of Research

Automotive, Strategy

Destya Faishal, Equity Analyst

Mining, Gas, Heavy Equipment

Martha Christina, Equity Analyst

Cement, Property, Construction, Toll Road

Muhamad Farhan, Equity Analyst

Retail Trade, Poultry Feed

Milka Mutiara, Equity Analyst

Banking, Telecommunication

Edward Lowis, Equity Analyst

Agriculture, Consumer Goods

Fardini Rahma Dewi

Research Assistant

PT. Phillip Securities IndonesiaANZ Tower, Level 23B

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 33AJakarta 10220, Indonesia

Phone: +62 21 57 900 [email protected]

www.poems.co.id | www.phillip.co.id

Disclaimer


This presentation is prepared by Phillip Securities Indonesia, PT. (“PSI”). By going through this presentation, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below.

This presentation shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities Indonesia shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this presentation.

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Indonesia has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities Indonesia has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Indonesia shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities Indonesia be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.


Market Review

IHSG (JCI) 5,172.48 -0.19%P/E: 22.40x P/BV: 2.52x YTD: -1.34%

LQ45 897.40 -0.10%

DJIA 18,105.17 -0.47%S&P 500 2,105.33 -0.51%Nikkei225 19,620.91 +1.25%Hang Seng 27,718.20 +0.51%

INDONESIA Rupiah weakened to IDR 13,154 per USD, depreciated 0.25%

PBOC rate cut decision raised hope for commodity prices

US Wall Street closed lower as investors eyed a global bonds sell off which pushed

the US 10-year T-bond yield to 2.27 percent.

Markets also awaited the week's data releases.

ASIA China rolled out its third interest rate cut since November

Japan's Nikkei 225 steadied at a seven-day high, with Fast Retailing and Fanuc rallied 2.8% and 1.7%

Market Review

Market Review Stock Movers JCI IndicationStocks to

WatchFundamentals

PSI Research Watchlist

Q&A

3800

4300

4800

5300

5800

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

MSCI APAC ex Jpn. (Rescaled to JCI)

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)


Market Review

BUMIClose: 103 +1.98%P/E: 0.53 P/BV: -0.74

AALIClose: 22,225 +4.83%P/E: 56.12 P/BV: 2.91

ADROClose: 905 +5.23%P/E: 13.06 P/BV: 0.84

ELSAClose: 610 +2.52%P/E: 16.94 P/BV: 1.68

Stock Movers


WatchFundamentals


Q&A

BUMI Bumi Resources

Plans a private placement at higher share price.

AALI Astra Agro Lestari

CPO futures rose 0.5%, after China slashed interest rate to stimulate its economy.

ADRO Adaro Energy

Speculation on China stimulus could increase energy demand to support economy growth.

ELSA Elnusa

Positive sentiment from oil and gas price increase could trigger miners to continue their halted productions.


Market Review

Bearish

Support / Resistance: 5,144 - 5,230

Market Drivers: Negative sentiment from Wall street overnight put pressure on Asian markets.

Depreciating rupiah value remains a major concerns.

JCI Indication


WatchFundamentals


Q&A

108 145 86 146 201 222 236 143 230.94

16.818.9

15.817.4 18.4 17.3 18.3

29.8

22.40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 Current

EPS before XO Price/EPS before XO


Market Review

TLKMClose 2,845P/E: 18.84 P/BV: 3.15

DGIKClose: 127P/E: 15.88 P/BV: 0.63

ENRGClose: 81P/E: 8.10 P/BV: 0.32

ITMGClose: 15,000P/E: 6.81 P/BV: 1.52

Stocks to WatchTLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia

Sets target of IDR 11 trillion of revenue contribution from enterprise & business service division.

DGIK Nusa Konstruksi Enjiniring

Secured 5 contracts amounting to IDR 562.04 billion in 4M15 or 25.54% from its total target this year.

ENRG Energi Mega Persada

Plans to private placement worth IDR 446.42 billion.

ITMG Indo Tambang Raya

Net income decreased 60.69% yoy from USD 96.15 million to USD 37.79 million in 1Q15.


WatchFundamentals


Q&A


Market Review

Fundamentals


WatchFundamentals


Q&A

Performance

FYE Dec (USD 000) 1Q14 1Q15

Revenue 804,366 696,372 -13.42%

EBITDA 253,316 195,853 -22.68%

EBIT 224,690 164,754 -26.67%

Net Income (USD) 176,673 108,791 -38.42%

EPS (USD) 0.007 0.004

Perusahaan Gas NegaraRecommendation : Accumulate (maintain)Target price : IDR 4,575

We maintain “Accumulate” rating on PGAS with lower target price of IDR 4,575 due to lower distribution volume and higher cost of revenue than our previous estimation. FY15E EPS to decline to USD 0.023 (IDR 286) or 4.2% lower than our previous estimation. Higher cost of revenue by 5.2%.

In the long-term, our view on PGAS remains positive as the company continued to expand its gas pipeline network and participating interest in oil and gas field. The Kalija I pipeline with total length of 207 km will be on-stream in 3Q15 and could boost transmission volume by 60-120 MMSCFD.

Saka Energi Indonesia (SEI), a PGAS subsidiary will begin the second drilling in 2016 to confirm gas reserve of 500 BCF in South Selulu, East Kalimantan. Currently SEI is producing 23 MBOED of oil and gas. 90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15

PGAS IJ JCI Rebased


Market Review


Realized Performance: -1.19% JCI (IHSG) since 18 Jun 2014: +5.82% (excluding dividend)

Unrealized Performance: -0.18%

Start Date: 18 Jun 2014

Stock Holdings Entry Date Entry Price

Last Close Trade Status Unrealized P/L per share

Exit Date Exit Price Realized P/L per share

ADHI 9 Apr 15 3,125 2,855 Hold -270 - - -


WatchFundamentals


Q&A


Market Review


ADHI

9 April 2015 Buy:3,125

• Recommendation: Hold

• S/L: Shift from 2,215 to 2,350

• S: 2,705 R: 3,900


WatchFundamentals


Q&A


Market Review

Q&A

Phillip Morning Market Call

Webinar ID:

May 2015: 159-379-299

Jun 2015: 152-224-667

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WatchFundamentals


Q&A


Market Review

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