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WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 1
“PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 – WHAT TO EXPECT”
“PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 – WHAT TO EXPECT”
German - Philippine Chamber of CommerceGerman - Philippine Chamber of Commerce
German ClubNovember 12, 2015
German ClubNovember 12, 2015
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 2
SENIORS & COMPUTERSAs we Silver Surfers know, sometimes we have trouble
with our computers.Yesterday, I had a problem, so I called Georgie, the 11 year old next door, whose bedroom looks like Mission Control, and asked him to come over.
Georgie clicked a couple of buttons and solved the problem.As he was walking away, I called after him, 'So, what was wrong?
He replied, 'It was an ID ten T error.'I didn't want to appear stupid, but nonetheless inquired,
'An, ID ten T error? What's that? In case I need to fix it again.'Georgie grinned. 'Haven't you ever heard of an ID ten T error before?
'No,' I replied.'Write it down,' he said, 'and I think you'll figure it out.'
So I wrote down:
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 3
I used to like Georgie, the little shithead.
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 4
The nature of man and the whimsicality of politics means that our assessments, which are based upon
interviews and research are the most likely ‐ but could change
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 5
Philippines under Aquino
A dishonest Chief Justice and obstinate Ombudsman kicked out
A questionable President under hospital arrest 3 (opposition) senators detained over fund scandal Cases vs. 500 major tax evaders and smugglers filed – but
no one convicted Tough laws passed – Sin Tax Reform, Reproductive Health National Budget reforms enacted Sustained economic growth
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 6
5.1
3.43.6
1.9
‐7.3 ‐7.3
3.44.3
6.86.2
3.0
‐0.6
0.3
2.1
4.4 4.7
5.85.2
‐0.6
3.1
4.4
2.93.6
5
6.7
4.85.2
6.6
4.2
1.1
7.6
3.7
6.87.2
6.1
‐10
‐8
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
10
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
PH’s Real GDP Growth, 1980‐2014
Country % Growth rate (1980‐2014)
Indonesia 5.51
Vietnam* 5.50
Thailand 5.26
Philippines 3.53
*1985‐2014
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 7
But these gains have been offset by –
GDP growth being consumption‐led not production‐driven (non‐inclusive)
Insufficient jobs being created
Negligible reduction in the number of poor Filipinos
Not a single tax evader/smuggler in jail
Allies involved in corruption scandals still roam free
Hugely inefficient mass transportation system
Minimal improvement in business registration system
Corruption still pervasive especially among LGUs
Non‐support of amendments to economic provisions of the Constitution
Mamasapano incident
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 8
The decline in ratings has been arrestedExpected to rub off on Roxas soon
Aquino’s Net Satisfaction Rating (SWS)
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 9
Gives President Aquino sufficient capital to push for crucial reform measures with barely a year left in office – if he wants to
Boosts his endorsement power for the 2016 elections
But this has yet to fully rub off on Roxas’ voter preference scores Osmena says endorsement not a significant factor Drilon disagrees
Lacson says the 2015 national budget has lump sumfunds that can be specified later
Improved Ratings:
─ used to finance local government projects ─ used to gain support from local pols who have far‐reaching
influence over their constituents
It’s all about PPPPopularity, Politicians, Pesos
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 10
How Aquino Compares (SWS)Net satisfaction with barely a year left in office, and how their
anointed successors fared in elections:
Cory Aquino, +10Her anointed won
Erap Estrada, +5Fled the Palace
Fidel Ramos, +50His didn’t
Gloria Arroyo, ‐32Hers didn’t
Benigno Aquino lll, +41His???
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Why Poe’s Ratings remain strong Attacks on her being a foundling are backfiring amongst
the public Comes across as intelligent, decent, balanced and thoughtful
(captures A,B,C classes) Endearing to “masa” voters (Erap/FPJ constituency) & youth Professional handling of Senate investigation on PNP corruption
and Mamasapano despite being a novice senator Advocates for a clean and honest government (principal author
of FOI bill)
Funds hesitant but some moving into her camp;A party taking her in is on the cards
BUT
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Issues Against Poe
Citizenship. Being considered by the SET, and COMELEC; Decisions soon. It will be close.
Whatever is decided it will go to the SC. How quickly they decide will be critical.
Actual residence or intent to return. It is putting her status in doubt. In both cases the SC could justify either way.
It puts a cloud over her candidacy
VP – Chiz Escudero
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 13
Novice lawmaker. Aside from FOI her legislative record is slim.Limited experience – 2 years as chairman of Movie and
Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB).But she listens and learns
If Poe is declared ineligible, Miriam might gain – but not enough.
Binay and Roxas both gain someErap’s support for Poe shifts to Binay─ or he may just step in. Dec. 10 is it
Thank You Supreme Court
Issues Against Poe… 2
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Binay’s Lower Ratings
VP Binay’s lower voter preference ratings have primarily beenattributed to his reluctance to directly address plunder and graftcharges filed against him
That demand for explanation has been growingThe masses don’t care – “Everyone does it, anyway”
They see a candidate that has the potential to replicate Makati’ssuccess throughout the country—and he gives cakes
He appeals to the grassroots – Boy Scouts, Makati’s sister Cities,OFWs and their families, and the previously homeless families
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The Demolition vs Binay
The administration is out to get him‐ can they succeed?
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He’s battling a concerted effort to demolish him – but theyneed more dirt close to the polls if they are to succeedAttacks vs Binay were launched too early – can they besustained?Something that breaks his rapport with the masses anddisenchants the LGU’s is needed
Binay’s…
VP – Gringo Honasan
Political machinery (UNA) support remains strong
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 17
Roxas’ Ratings Have Been Improving
Now able to give Poe and Binay a fight
He has been struggling to reverse a lackluster image that justwasn’t drawing the crowds. Will Aquino’s endorsement changethat?
A technocrat pretending to be pro‐masses. He could no longersell the “Mr. Palengke” (public market) image that took him tothe top of 2004 senatorial polls. He needs something else
There’s nothing derogatory against him (his lack of decisivenessis not known to the general public). But he doesn’t haveempathy with the masses, he just doesn’t click
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 18
Roxas’ Ratings…
He’s a decent, honest man — no scandal has ever been attached to him.
He has long senior public service experience He should be the one
“He has an unblemished record” ‐ AquinoIndeed he has – he’s done nothing “blemishable”
If it were just him and Binay he could winWith Poe in it’s a tougher call
But don’t underestimate the government machine VP – Leni Robredo
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Is it down to just 3?
Miriam doesn’t think so She’s struggled into the ring
And there’s the 1st problem – health She says she’s beaten stage 4 cancer
‐ only 1% survival rate for patients who live at least 5 years – but won’t release medical proofShe’s frail, hesitant on her legsA sharp mind, but ill‐prepared Appeals to college students
She’s not a winner, she’s a spoiler She takes votes from mostly Grace and
lesser Mar.
VP ‐ Bongbong Marcos
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He’s said no, no, no.His supporters won’t give up
Till December 10 he could replaceMartin DiñoWho filed under PDP‐Laban, Duterte’s party.
The “Donald Trump” of the PhilippinesHis tough, no‐nonsense attitude is what the public wants
His frank, “like it is” style appealsAs does his ability to fight crime successfully
But he’s yet to rise above the image of just a town mayorCould he modify his dictatorial style to the national good.There is serious attempt to get him to change his mind
—it could succeed
VP ─ Alan Cayetano
Then There’s Duterte
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 22
So is it down to just 3?
Yes – forget Miriam and 120 other Charlatans
Without Duterte:
Sen. Grace Poe will get the popular vote
VP Jojo Binay will get LGU influence
Sec. Mar Roxas will get the full government machine
It will be a close callIf Duterte joins he could be the one to beat
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 23
It may be even closer – if Poe is disqualified
That too is a close call
Will the SET listen to the people or pedantic lawyers (forget the facts, it’s a political call)
But then there’s the Supreme Court
Whose decisions are unfathomable
As is their timing
If there is a negative decision
There could be wide public discontent
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 25
People want change, someone new and fresh
But many voters don’t vote their choice, they listen to and are influenced by local politicians and pesos; party machinery still
works (Binay and Roxas have an edge here)
70‐80% of voters are C, D, EThe traditional campaigns, will remain an important
influence – they draw crowds.
Filipinos love a “fiesta.” The thrill of someone “famous”
‐ and a merienda
An independent candidate faces an uphill battle
How do voters vote?What The Latest Poll Results Say
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 26
Social Media Votes
The internet (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) will be a major new factor particularly for the young
The Philippines is a social networking capital:
8th on the list of countries with most number of Facebook users
10th in the global ranking for Twitter
Around 35‐40M Filipinos have internet access
Filipinos spend between 40‐50 hours a week surfing the internet, bulk of which is spent on various social media sites
It’s going to influenceIt’s a new influence
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How Contenders Fare on Social Media
Rank Facebook “likes”
Twitter “followers” Total “likes” and “followers”
1) Jojo Binay1.7 Million 241K 1.941 Million
2) Mar Roxas993K 508K 1.501 Million
3) RodrigoDuterte
1.4 Million 26K 1.426 Million
4) Grace Poe 679K 45K 724K
Social Media Presence and Influence*
*Official and Unofficial Social Media Accounts; As of September 2015
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 28
ISSUE BINAY POE ROXAS DUTERTE
Charter Change
In favor of amending the economic
provisions of the Constitution
In favor of amending the economic
provisions of the Constitution
Open to amendments
to both economic and
political provisions
Wants shift to parliamentary
federal system. Supports
amending the economic provisions
Department of ICT
Has not yet taken a position
No known stand
Could support
Against the formation of
DICT
Despite being the “Father of
PH BPO”
Supportscreation of aDICT and ispromoting forICTdevelopmentin Davao city
Frontrunners on key issues
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 29
ISSUE BINAY POE ROXAS DUTERTE
Mining Supports responsible mining;
Among UNA’s 3 drivers of growth (with agriculture and tourism)
Advocates for “responsible, transparent mining”
May seek new mining code
Lukewarm to mining
No clear stand on mining taxes
Supportsresponsible mining
and fair taxes
PPP
Pro; Believes instrongpartnershipbetween businessand governmentesp. in power,telecoms, andfarm‐to‐marketroads.
Pro; seeks more PPPs especially for agriculture
He’s likely to continue PNoy’sflagship infra program
But it suffered delays under his leadership as Secretary of DOTC
Pro
Issued PPP ordinance to hasten implementation of projects in Davao
city
Stand on key issues 2
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 30
ISSUE BINAY POE ROXAS DUTERTE
K‐12 programPro; wants
it complemented by an apprentice
ship program.
Pro Pro Against
Reproductive Health
(RH)Anti
Pro
The existinglaw could be
further strengthened
Pro
Had an active role in pushing for the RH Bill
Pro
Under his watch Davao implemented its own pop’n control measure even before RH was enacted into law
Stand on key issues 3
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 31
ISSUE BINAY POE ROXAS DUTERTE
Conditional Cash
Transfer program
Sees the viability ofthe CCT program;needs an exitmechanism thatwould channelmore resources toskills training.
Pro, but wants totackle hunger inmore directmanner
(Pushes for astandard lunchprogram)
Supports it
Has been promoting it to
LGUs
Would support but require some work
BBLIn favor as long as it is achieved within the framework of the Constitution
Against the passage of BBL in its current form
Positive stand on peace talks even
after the Mamasapano
incident
Doesn’t supportBBL as the Muslims
have never accepted Christian
domination
Stand on key issues 3…
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 32
In the worst case, what we have is:
A president who brings government to a standstill through inaction; or
A president who revives the ‘trapo’ tradition in a dynastic way; or
An inexperienced president who makes too many innocent gaffes; or
A maverick that could impose unacceptable constraints
The consequences are disturbing – at best
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 33
A president who is honest, ethical, hardworking and recognizes the need to be a risk‐taker; or
A president who lays the family aside, forgoes political obligations and just get things done; or
A president who appoints a highly experienced cabinet, listens to them and acts forthrightly on their advice; or
A president that revolutionizes society to be better
The worst of it all – no one hasany idea which way it will go
In the best case we can get:
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 34
What we need is ‐
Someone who can work with Congress; Roxas is weak here.
Someone who understands business; Poe and to a lesser extent, Binay and Duterte, are weak.
Someone who can negotiate on the international level – and understand the ramifications. None has shown any aptitude.
Someone who can empathize with and do something for the masses. Binay and Duterte shine here with Grace not too far behind. Mar is on a different level.
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 35
What we need is ‐
Someone who understands economics and the importance of applyingit to policy‐making. Mar should, but will he?.
Someone who will give back agriculturethe importance it needs. No one, maybe Duterte.
Someone who is technically savvy and visionary. Mar may be a bit ahead. But none really understands the massive change that is occurring in the world.
Someone who is prepared to “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”Make the revolutionary changes needed. Duterte and maybe, surprisingly, Poe. She’s new to the game so no entrenched thinking, not the “analysis‐paralysis” likely under Roxas or trapo continuation of Binay.
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 36
The thing most going for the Philippinestoday is that it’s politically stable
We do not see an upset to the established democratic system
There may be some upset at the security level – the Muslims in Mindanao aren’t happy
But it can’t threaten national stability
The economy is sufficiently diverseand domestically
driven as to be little impactedby global events
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 37
But it can’t take capricious nay whimsical decisions
As this president did by banning mining
All support mining, although Mar is a slight risk But in other areas? Who knows?
They all understand, to varying degrees, the role of the private sector in an open market as being the
correct policy
So we don’t see any of them effecting a massive turnaround to
doing business
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 38
Getting more and better infrastructure built – faster!
Power supply availability Port congestion/logistics issues A new international airport built A greater shift to manufacturing FDI restrictions removed Revival of mining – competitively taxed Creation of millions of paying jobs
Economic:
Critical economic issues beyond Aquino
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 39
Critical economic issues beyond Aquino… 5
Economic: Reforms in the tax system ‐> toward lower, simpler taxes
(exemption of the small guy) whilst keeping collections high to support infra + anti‐poverty/basic social services spending
Greatly simplifying and computerizing the bureaucracy for business Overcoming PH disadvantages in ASEAN market liberalization Manila traffic
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 40
Critical issues for the next President
Constitutional change to the economic provisions – and political?
Significant reduction in corruptionat the top and at lower levels, particularly local governments
Imprisonment of more major corruptors—from both sides
Political:
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 41
Political:
Modified usage of a savings‐realignment scheme (DAP)
Implementation of an exit strategy for Conditional Cash Transfer – give beneficiaries jobs
Genuine emergency systems put in place
Critical political issues beyond Aquino… 4
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 42
Critical political issues beyond Aquino… 2
Implementation of disaster mitigation projects, finishing reconstruction post‐Haiyan
Conclusion of peace talks, that includes all Muslims and Moros
Resolution of Mamasapano massacre
Freedom of Information and other key reform bills business wants
Entering the AEC and TPP successfully
Dealing with Chinese incursions
Political:
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 43
WE GET THEM ALLVP Binay Mayor Duterte
Grace Poe Mar Roxas
03 September 03 July
23 November 10 December
COMING SOON
If Duterte runs we’ll get him back
THE WALLACE BUSINESS FORUM
WE TELL IT LIKE IT ISWE TELL YOU WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
WWW.WALLACEBUSINESSFORUM.COMGPCCI BRIEFING NOV. 12, 2015 44
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