Phatra Wealth Daily 20140417_rc (1)

Private Wealth Management Research 17 April 2014

1

A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Phatra Wealth Daily Note Global Markets: Yellen's dovish comment, China 1Q14 GDP

n US stocks rose 1% on Wed, rising for a third straight session as US Fed Chair Yellen reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to keeping interest rates low.

n Yellen said US central bankers must be mindful of how short the Fed is of its goals of full employment and price stability, implying the policy rate could continue to stay low.

n China’s 1Q14 GDP growth came in at 7.4%yoy, slightly higher than consensus expectations of 7.3% growth but slowing down from 7.7% in 4Q13.

Local Markets: Pheu Thai agrees to poll talks, MPC expected to keep rates unchanged

n Pheu Thai party's executives will meet today to work out a proposal on a fresh election before proposing it to the EC.

n The Senate has decided to postpone its extraordinary session until April 24 after the earlier scheduled date faced legal problems.

n Economists agree the Bank of Thailand is unlikely to change its policy interest rate at next Wednesday's meeting.

n Local Market Wrap: SET 1,401.84 +12.68pts +0.91%

Value US$827mn. An up-trending day, with large caps

leading the way, BANK+1.12%, ENERG+1.55%,

TELECOS+1.27%. The lack of selling has helped the

index to outperform. Market closed at the day’s high,

breaking the 1,400 level for the first time since mid-

November last year.

Investment Ideas

n IRPC (Underperform/12-month PO Bt2.75) – We

forecast 1Q14 net profit (including forex gain of

Bt160mn) to be Bt178mn, -77% QoQ +16% YoY. This

represents 15% of our 2014E and 7% of consensus

estimates. Despite some GIM increase in 1Q14, the

extent of it will not be enough to return IRPC to a

profitable path given its high cost structure. Even with

the potential realization of margin improvement, higher

volume, and cost-savings, we think IRPC still looks

expensive at a 2015E PER of 16x.

Key Global Index Last %Chg %YTD US Dow Jones 16,424.9 1.0% -0.9% US S&P 500 1,862.3 1.0% 0.8% US Nasdaq 4,086.2 1.3% -2.2% UK FTSE 100 6,584.2 0.7% -2.4%

EU STOXX600 112.9 1.2% 0.7% JP Nikkei 14,417.7 3.0% -11.5% HK Hang Seng 22,696.0 0.1% -2.6% MSCI ACWI 409.4 1.0% 0.2% MSCI WORLD 1,664.9 1.1% 0.2% MSCI Europe 112.9 1.2% 0.7% MSCI EM 1,002.5 0.3% 0.0% MSCI AsiaPac ex Japan 479.5 0.2% 2.4%

SET Index Last %Chg %YTD

SET Index 1,401.8 0.9% 7.9%

SET100 Index 2,092.9 1.0% 8.3%

SET50 Index 952.6 1.0% 7.8%

Cumulative Net Buy Last 1M YTD

Foreigners 245 15,067 (15,518)

Local institutions 1,648 577 23,359

Retail investors (2,293) (19,117) (15,168)

Proprietary 400 3,473 7,327

Exchange Rate Last %Chg %YTD

EURUSD 1.3816 0.0% 0.5%

USDJPY 102.23 0.3% -2.9%

USDCNY 6.2220 0.0% 2.8%

USDTHB 32.23 -0.3% -1.4%

Commodities Last %Chg %YTD

WTI (USD/bl) 103.8 0.0% 5.4%

Brent (USD/bl) 109.6 0.2% 0.1%

Gold (USD/tr oz) 1,302.5 0.0% 8.4%

Phatra Macro Research Team & Phatra PWM Research Analysts

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai [email protected]

Porntip Tantasuwan

[email protected]

Flemming Clausen [email protected]

Taweesak Paopanlop

[email protected]

Issued by Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("Phatra"). Phatra does and seeks to do business with companies covered or mentioned in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Phatra may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 12.

mailto:[email protected]





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Global Market Highlights Stocks rebound on Yellen comment and China GDP (WSJ, Bloomberg)

US stocks rose 1% on Wed, rising for a third straight session as Yellen reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to keeping interest rates low. Yahoo's earnings topped estimates and industrial production gained more than forecast.

European shares rose after stronger-than-expected China 1Q GDP trumped market jitters over tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed 1.3% higher, more than recovering Tuesday's 1.0% decline. Germany's DAX added 1.6%, France's CAC40 +1.4%, FTSE +0.7%.

Sterling surged to a 2-month high after robust UK employment data boosted the perception that the BoE is likely to be the first major central bank to raise interest rates.

US Economic data: strong IP and signs of a rebound (Bloomberg)

Industrial production rose 0.7% in March vs a forecast of +0.4%. Capacity utilization rose by more than expected as well. The Beige book also showed that economic activity in most of the country rebounded after an unusually icy winter hampered growth.

New residential construction and building permits in March were weaker than expected at +2.4% vs forecast of 6.4%.

Yellen: Fed still short of its employment goals (Bloomberg)

US Fed Chair Yellen said "the larger the shortfall of employment or inflation from their respective objectives, and the slower the projected progress toward those objectives, the longer the current target range for the federal funds rate is likely to be maintained". The jobless rate of 6.7% is higher than the 5.2-5.6% full employment target of the Fed while PCE inflation is less than 1% vs. the Fed's 2% target. She said it will take more than 2 years for the economy to reach the Fed's goals, adding that the Fed's forecasts were disrupted by negative surprises, not positive ones.

Yellen spoke of a "continuing commitment" to support the economy. "The employment shortfall remains significant, and in our baseline outlook, it will take more than two years to close". Stocks extended gains after Yellen's comments. S&P rose +1.1%. Yellen also underscored the risks to the Fed's baseline outlook. She said wage gains are proceeding at a "historically slow pace," and the chances of inflation rising above the Fed's 2% goal were "significantly below the chances of inflation persisting below 2%."

China: 1Q GDP and March data points to rebound (BAML)

1Q14 GDP growth came in at 7.4%yoy, slightly higher than consensus expectation of 7.3% but slowing down from 7.7% in 4Q13. Industrial production growth rebounded to 8.8% yoy in Mar (vs 8.6% in Jan-Feb); retail sales growth bounced back to 12.2% yoy (vs 11.8% in Jan-Feb) but FAI growth slowed to 17.4% yoy (vs 17.9% in Jan-Feb). Power consumption rebounded to 7.2% yoy from 4.5% yoy in Jan-Feb.

Some key products such as cement tell us about the improvement in March as output growth of power, steel products, cement, crude oil and non-ferrous metals accelerated in March from Jan-Feb. We expect 2Q GDP to grow 7.5%yoy and 1.8%QoQ.

March data improved, but not enough to deliver 7.5% growth for the whole year. BoAML expects Beijing to implement “mini-stimulus” -- small-scale growth supportive measures focusing on fiscal spending in social housing, urban infrastructure and central & western region infrastructure. Despite the falling M1 and M2 yoy growth, the PBoC may not cut overall RRR in the near term, but would cut RRR for rural banks which would help lower interbank rates.

China's Slowdown Likely to Spur Stimulus, Not Reforms (WSJ)

China's slowdown, widely expected to continue through 2Q at least, will boost pressure on Beijing to dial up stimulus measures and dial back structural reforms. 2Q GDP growth fell to 7.4%, an 18-month low, from 7.7% in 4Q, with little sign that China will manage much faster growth in the near term. Over the past week, China's premier and central bank chief underscored their focus on growth, saying that they would use monetary policy or "slightly bigger adjustment" measures if growth slips below acceptable levels.

Capital Economics, which looks at measures of electricity, shipping and real estate, said China's growth slowed in 1Q to 6% YoY vs. 6.3% in 4Q. Growth is lower than the official estimates, said Capital Economics, but the slowdown is not a hard landing. Others say slowing growth means that difficult reforms will be put off indefinitely. These include restructuring SOEs, land reform and a nationwide property tax.

Stimulus measures in coming weeks will likely involve stepped-up investments in transportation, urban renewal and alternate energy projects. Also, there will be a RRR cut for rural banks that "meet certain standards". China will continue its reliance on investment which could run out of steam by 4Q because of diminishing returns to fiscal policy. US said China intervened heavily to allow the yuan to fall 2.5% vs US$ in the past 2 months.


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Local Market Highlights Market Wrap

SET 1,401.84 +12.68pts +0.91% Value US$827mn

Net Buy/Sell Frgn+US$8mn Inst+US$51mn Prop+US$12mn Ret-US$71mn

An up-trending day, with large caps leading the way, BANK+1.12%, ENERG+1.55%, TELECOS+1.27%.

The lack of selling has helped the index to outperform.

Market closed at the day’s high, breaking the 1,400 level for the first time since mid-November last year.

We are beginning to see preview 1Q14 again, with market looking for an indication on how badly the political instability has impacted the economy.

BANKs+1.12% are expected to be among the first to announce with expectation of results as soon as April 18th.

Politics, PM Yingluck faces judicial showdown this week that could bar her from office.

Officials hinted that the ruling against her and her cabinet could leave enough of it to limp on to fresh elections.

Chart: SET – Intraday movement

1,380

1,390

1,400

1,410

10:0

0

10:3

0

11:0

0

11:3

0

12:0

0

13:5

9

14:2

9

14:5

9

15:2

9

15:5

9

16:2

9

1389.6

Day LowPrevious Close

1389.16

1401.84

Day High

Close

1401.84

Source: Bloomberg

Top Gainers Last %Chg %YTD

JMART 16.60 +5.9% +3.2%

KCE 30.25 +4.3% +28.7%

STEC 17.40 +3.6% +31.8%

BEC 55.00 +3.3% +8.9%

SAMART 19.60 +3.2% +32.4%

Top Losers Last %Chg %YTD

MAJOR 19.00 -1.6% +8.6%

ROBINS 51.75 -1.4% +7.8%

DCC 52.75 -1.4% +8.2%

DELTA 56.25 -1.3% +5.1%

BCH 7.50 -1.3% +24.0%

Most Active Last %Chg %YTD

PTTGC 71.00 +1.4% -10.1%

PTT 315.00 +2.6% +10.1%

BBL 190.00 +1.3% +6.7%

KBANK 183.00 +1.1% +17.3%

ADVANC 229.00 +1.8% +14.8%

Sectoral performance Last %Chg %YTD

SET Index 1,401.8 0.9% 7.9%

SET Energy & Utilities 19,883.6 1.6% 3.8%

SET Banks 523.7 1.1% 14.6%

SET ICT 215.2 1.3% 12.8%

SET Commerce 27,817.7 -0.2% 5.6%

SET Food & Bev 10,930.2 0.6% 0.0%

SET Property 265.9 0.9% 13.7%

SET Constr Mat 10,546.9 0.5% 4.5%

SET Petrochem 939.2 1.3% -4.5%

SET Health Care 3,124.5 0.9% 13.9%

SET Transportation 181.3 0.1% 12.0%

SET Property Fund 155.1 0.5% -1.2%


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Today’s news Politics: Pheu Thai agrees to poll talks (Bangkok Post)

Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit said Wednesday the party's executives would meet today to work out a proposal on a fresh election before proposing it to the EC. During the meeting, party representatives would be picked to join the EC's meeting, scheduled for next Tuesday. He stressed any representatives sent by the party to attend the meeting with the EC could make decisions on behalf of the party.

He backed EC member Somchai Srisuttiyakorn's bid to hold talks on new polls with the caretaker government today. But he did not want the EC to set a condition that it would not hold a new election if no resolution was reached at today's meeting.

During next Tuesday's meeting, Pheu Thai would push a resolution made by 53 registered political parties that a fresh poll must be held within 60 days as earlier proposed to the EC, he said. Holding one within 90 days would be too long, he added.

Politics: Legal issues delay Senate meeting (Bangkok Post)

Senate has decided to postpone its extraordinary session until April 24 after the earlier scheduled date faced legal problems.

Earlier this month, the Council of State, the government’s legal adviser, wrote to the cabinet secretariat to say that the Upper House cannot convene tomorrow to consider the impeachment of suspended Senate Speaker Nikhom Wairatpanich and ex-parliament president Somsak Kiatsuranon.

The Council of State's reason for the delay was that the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), which found the men guilty of breaching the constitution, suggested the impeachment should take place outside the Senate session. In this case, it explained, the Senate session can be convened only if the Senate speaker asks the parliament president to seek a royal command. However, the caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has not signed to forward the call for the Senate meeting to His Majesty the King yet.

Economic: MPC expected to keep its relaxed stance (Bangkok Post)

Economists agree the Bank of Thailand is unlikely to change its policy interest rate at next Wednesday's meeting.

The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its last meeting on March 12 cut the policy rate to 2% per year from 2.25%, with a narrow four-member majority arguing that a rate cut was warranted due to rising risks to economic growth from political turmoil.

“As long as inflation remains relatively stable, capital outflows stay moderate and the country's credit ratings are not

downgraded significantly, the policy rate is expected to maintain a relaxed monetary policy stance in the near future. However, this depends on whether the political stalemate will be resolved soon and whether inflation edges up swiftly or not”, the MPC stated.

Economic: Tax shortfall to be addressed (Bangkok Post)

The Revenue Department is poised to tighten scrutiny of tax payments by wealthy owners of businesses with weak earnings as part of efforts to seek higher tax revenue. This follows its estimation that revenue for this fiscal year will have the biggest shortfall in seven years.

The department recently estimated it would collect only 1.76 trillion baht, about 7% short of the 1.9 trillion targeted for fiscal 2014 ending Sept 30. Lower-than-targeted collection of value-added tax (VAT) on imported products will contribute to the shortfall.

Property: Singha expands property arm via share-swap deal with Rasa (The Nation)

Singha Corporation and its major shareholder Santi Bhirombhakdi are undertaking a back-door listing in the Stock Exchange of Thailand by acquiring Rasa Property Development.

Rasa’s board has approved the share swap deal of 4,162,352,331 new shares at Bt1.87 each, totaling Bt7.78 bn. After Singha Corp acquires the new shares, it will hold 90% of Rasa Property Development, which will increase its registered capital from Bt550mn to Bt4.6bn.

According to the deal, Singha Property Management Co will hold 1,932,405,807 shares worth Bt3.61 billion in Rasa Property Development by swapping shares of its subsidiary S Bright Future Co for Rasa's new shares, said Rasa managing director Rapi Pinijchob. Singha Corp set up S Bright Future in December last year.

Singha's business diversification into the property sector is in line with the policy set by Santi, who is also the group chief executive officer, to double the sales contribution from its non-alcohol businesses to 30% by the end of this year, from only 15% in 2011. It is also in line with the company's business direction set to diversify into two new business pillars -- real estate and energy.

Energy: PTT reduces investment budget by 30% (Bangkok Post)

PTT has announced it will cut this year’s investment budget by as much as 30%, from Bt86.9bn to Bt60bn, due to ongoing political unrest delaying new projects. This will be the second consecutive year in which state-controlled PTT has scaled back its spending plans after expanding aggressively before.


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Stock Comments IRPC: Running ahead of itself (Underperform/12-month PO Bt2.75)

1Q14 preview - Still weak

We expect IRPC to deliver another weak quarter and the result should disappoint those who anticipate a significant improvement. Expectation of a sharp turnaround should shift toward 2H14, but we believe that will also be a challenge for IRPC. We forecast 1Q NPAT to come in at Bt178mn, representing 15% of our forecast and a mere 7% of the consensus estimate. This includes an expected forex gain of Bt160mn, which means that IRPC's core operation will be slightly profitable in 1Q. We have fine-tuned our NPAT estimate by raising 2014E NPAT by 2% and cutting 2015E NPAT by 1% to reflect a slight change in our spread assumptions.

Total gross integrated margin should improve but not enough

We expect GIM (which combines the margins of its refining, petrochemical, lube, and utilities) to improve from US$6.5/bbl in 4Q13 to US$7.2/bbl in 1Q14, driven mainly by higher refining margin. This is slightly higher than IRPC's recent guidance of a market GIM of US$7.0/bbl in 1Q. The drop in a combination of stock/hedging gain should bring down reported GIM from US$8.9/bbl to US$8.2/bbl. The run-rate in 1Q should also be in line with IRPC's target of 180,000 bbl/d for 2014.

High cost base will still be a challenge

Despite some GIM increase in 1Q, the extent of it will not be enough to return IRPC to a profitable path given its high cost structure. We expect its total cost should normalize from a high level in 4Q13 (US$9.8/bbl) to a more normal level (US$8.7/bbl). The bulk of this number goes to cash operating cost (US$5.5/bbl). The benefits of its cost reduction/efficiency Delta program (through which IRPC aims to bring down the cost base by US$1/bbl this year) should kick in by 2H14.

Reiterate our Underperform rating

Even with the potential realization of margin improvement, higher volume run, and cost-savings, we think IRPC still looks expensive at a 2015E P/E ratio of 16x. Our concerns remain on the extent (potential lower-than-expected spread improvement boosted by the UHV) and timing (i.e. delay) of the benefits of these measures.

CENTEL – Performance to weaken YoY (Neutral/12-month PO Bt30)

1Q14 result preview

We expect CENTEL to report 1Q14 net profit of Bt510mn, down 21% from Bt649mn in 1Q13 as a result of political protests in Bangkok, but up 76% from 4Q13 due to seasonality. If our preview is accurate, CENTEL's 1Q14 result will make up 35% of our full-year forecast and 33% of the consensus estimate. Despite strong performance from its ex-Bangkok hotels, especially in the Maldives, a drop in contribution from its hotels in Bangkok is dragging down overall performance. While we do expect a rebound, CENTEL's operation will not post a significant pick-up until 4Q14, in our view. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Hotel operation helped by overseas properties

Overall occupancy rate declined to 75% in 1Q14 from 84% in 1Q13. Bangkok hotel occupancy dropped to only 47% in 1Q14 from 78% in 1Q13. Overall ADR increased 19% YoY driven by a strong increase in ADR of its Maldives resorts. ADR for Bangkok hotels alone declined by 7% YoY in 1Q14. Overall RevPar still managed to increase by 7% YoY in 1Q14 despite Bangkok hotel RevPar dropping by 44% YoY. Revenue from CENTEL's hotel operation should increase by 6% in 1Q14, lower than its RevPar growth due to weaker contribution from F&B, which contributes up to 60% of revenue from its Centara Grand at Central World and Lad Prao.

Restaurant business continues to post negative SSSG

CENTEL's food business is still showing worrying signs of weakness with SSSG of -1.9% and TSSG of +6.6% in Jan-Feb. While figures for Mar are not yet available, it will not be significantly better. Management indicated that the weakest performance was seen at light food brands such as Mister Donut and Auntie Anne's as consumers cut down on unnecessary spending.

Margins to drop YoY

While we still expect the top line increase by 6% YoY in 1Q14, net profit should decline due to weaker margins. Margins for hotel business should drop as a result of weak performance by hotels in Bangkok, while margins for the food business are also expected to decline slightly YoY following a drop in SSS. As a result, we expect CENTEL's EBITDA margin to drop to 26% in 1Q14 from 28.4% in 1Q13. The net margin should decline to 10.7% in 1Q14 from 14.4% in 1Q13.


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Market Summary

Global Indices Last 1D 1W % Change

1M 3M YTD 1Y Dow Jones 16,424.9 1.0% -0.1% 1.1% 0.0% -0.9% 11.3% S&P 500 1,862.3 1.0% -0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 18.3% Nasdaq 4,086.2 1.3% -2.3% -4.5% -3.1% -2.2% 25.2% FTSE 100 6,584.2 0.7% -0.8% 0.2% -3.4% -2.4% 4.4% STOXX600 112.9 1.2% -1.1% 1.9% -1.0% 0.7% 14.1% Nikkei 14,417.7 3.0% 0.8% 1.0% -8.4% -11.5% 9.0% Hang Seng 22,696.0 0.1% -0.6% 5.7% -1.3% -2.6% 4.7% MSCI ACWI 409.4 1.0% -0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 13.7% MSCI World 1,664.9 1.1% -0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 15.7% MSCI Europe 112.9 1.2% -1.1% 1.9% -1.0% 0.7% 14.1% MSCI EM 1,002.5 0.3% -1.2% 6.3% 2.9% 0.0% -0.6% MSCI AsiaPac ex Japan 479.5 0.2% -0.6% 5.3% 4.7% 2.4% 3.2% SET Last 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y SET Index 1,401.8 0.9% 1.4% 1.8% 7.7% 7.9% -8.2% SET100 Index 2,092.9 1.0% 1.5% 2.2% 7.7% 8.3% -7.1% SET50 Index 952.6 1.0% 1.5% 2.2% 7.3% 7.8% -5.4% SET Energy & Utilities 19,883.6 1.6% 2.1% 3.8% 5.9% 3.8% -3.1% SET Banks 523.7 1.1% 0.6% 3.9% 10.7% 14.6% -10.4% SET ICT 215.2 1.3% 3.4% 2.7% 6.7% 12.8% -4.9%

SET Commerce 27,817.7 -0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 8.7% 5.6% -11.4% SET Food & Beverages 10,930.2 0.6% 0.9% -2.2% 4.5% 0.0% -10.1% SET Property 265.9 0.9% 2.2% 2.0% 13.7% 13.7% -21.2% SET Constr Mat 10,546.9 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 3.0% 4.5% -12.8% SET Petrochem 939.2 1.3% 2.4% -1.0% -2.5% -4.5% -2.5% SET Health Care 3,124.5 0.9% 1.3% 4.5% 12.7% 13.9% -8.1% SET Transportation 181.3 0.1% 1.3% -1.7% 10.5% 12.0% 7.5% SET Property Fund 155.1 0.5% 0.2% -0.6% 1.2% -1.2% -10.1% Currency Last 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y EURUSD 1.3816 0.0% -0.3% -0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 4.8% USDJPY 102.23 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% -2.0% -2.9% 4.8% USDCNY 6.2220 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 2.7% 2.8% 0.6% USDTHB 32.23 -0.3% 0.1% 0.0% -1.6% -1.4% 11.3% Commodities Last 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y WTI (USD/bl) 103.76 0.0% 0.2% 5.8% 10.4% 5.4% 17.0% Brent (USD/bl) 109.60 0.2% 1.5% 3.4% 4.8% 0.1% 12.1% Gold (USD/tr oz) 1,302.53 0.0% -0.7% -4.7% 4.8% 8.4% -4.7%

Treasury Yield Change in bps

Last 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y US 2Y Yield 0.37 +0 +0 +1 -2 -1 +14 US 5Y Yield 1.65 +3 +2 +8 +1 -9 +94 US 10Y Yield 2.63 -0 -6 -6 -21 -40 +91 TH 2Y Yield 2.27 +0 -1 -1 -19 -35 -56 TH 5Y Yield 3.19 -2 -4 +1 -19 -22 +3 TH 10Y Yield 3.67 -2 -6 -9 -35 -31 +23 Cumulative Net Buy (THBmn) 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y Foreigners 245 1,415 15,067 (17,067) (14,922) (200,359) Local institutions 1,648 2,325 577 23,008 18,750 89,059 Retail investors (2,293) (3,714) (19,117) (10,545) (8,522) 104,197 Proprietary 400 (26) 3,473 4,603 4,695 7,102 Cumulative Foreign Flows (US$mn) 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y Thailand 8 44 466 (511) (447) (6,358) Indonesia 30 (42) 1,099 2,530 2,769 (847) Korea 42 557 2,432 (86) (356) 7,869 Taiwan 174 818 3,620 4,398 4,946 13,587 Philippines 7 66 383 592 559 48


7


Top 20 Short Sale as of 16 April 2014

Securities Volume (Shares) Turnover (Baht) %Short Sale Volume

Comparing with Auto Matching

Closing Price (Baht)

Average Price of Short Sale

(Baht) KBANK 94,900 17,391,150.00 1.36% 183.00 183.26 TRUE 2,475,200 16,955,120.00 8.34% 6.90 6.85 BBL 79,900 15,148,550.00 0.99% 190.00 189.59 AOT 77,400 14,956,900.00 2.12% 194.50 193.24 DTAC 104,200 12,384,800.00 7.01% 118.50 118.86 ADVANC 50,400 11,456,500.00 1.09% 229.00 227.31 SCC 22,200 9,501,600.00 3.19% 428.00 428.00 PTTGC 123,300 8,692,650.00 0.46% 71.00 70.50 PTT 24,200 7,578,600.00 0.44% 315.00 313.17 INTUCH 91,600 6,872,050.00 1.14% 75.75 75.02 SCB 39,500 6,355,250.00 0.68% 161.00 160.89 BANPU 142,100 3,899,425.00 1.57% 27.50 27.44 PTTEP 21,600 3,423,600.00 0.55% 158.00 158.50 CPALL 74,800 3,270,750.00 0.48% 43.50 43.73 SPCG 110,000 2,370,000.00 2.14% 21.40 21.55 TTA 115,200 2,256,970.00 1.70% 19.60 19.59 DCC 39,500 2,079,050.00 38.69% 52.75 52.63 KTB 82,300 1,596,620.00 0.17% 19.40 19.40 KAMART 291,500 1,484,300.00 24.14% 5.10 5.09 CPN 29,200 1,331,100.00 1.00% 45.50 45.59 Source: SET *Remark - Excluding a short sale by a member that is a participating dealer or market maker of the ETF investment units for the company's account, for the purpose of realizing a profit from a price spread (arbitrage), or for the purpose of stabilizing liquidity, as the case may be.


8


April 2014 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

1 2 3 4 AQUA XD Bt0.03 CHARAN XD Bt1.50 OISHI XD Bt1.00 CSP XD Bt0.13

CSL XD Bt0.35 MK XD Bt0.20 SPPT XD Bt0.05 TCMC XD Bt0.04

DTCI XD Bt0.50 TCOAT XD Bt0.65

FANCY XD Bt0.10 TMD XD Bt0.40

INTUCH XD Bt2.16

ROH XD Bt0.60

SCC XD Bt7.00

SUC XD Bt2.00

THCOM XD Bt0.45

TPC XD Bt1.20

WG XD Bt5.50

7 8 9 10 11 CSS XD Bt0.08 BANPU XD Bt0.70 CPNRF XD Bt0.36

LTX XD Bt1.25 MAJOR XD Bt0.50 GC XD Bt0.14

TOG XD Bt0.20 TVI XD Bt0.32 KBANK XD Bt3.00

SAMCO XD Bt0.07

SCB XD Bt3.75

SCB-P XD Bt3.75

SSF XD Bt0.35

TCAP XD Bt1.00

TCAP-P XD Bt1.00

14 15 16 17 18

JMART XD 4:1 ANAN XD Bt0.05 AIT XD Bt1.00

Bt0.15 BIGC XD Bt2.55 BAY XD Bt0.40

JMT XD Bt0.07 KGI XD Bt0.36 BBL XD Bt4.50

MINT XD Bt0.35 GUNKUL XD 3:1

Bt0.038

HMPRO XD 7:1

Bt0.0159

IFEC XD 20:1

Bt0.01

MATCH XD Bt0.10

MFC XD Bt2.50

21 22 23 24 25 CIMBT XD Bt0.01 MIDA XD 10:1 AHC XD Bt0.64 AMARIN XD 10:1 ALUCON XD Bt8.00

EPCO XD Bt0.095 Bt0.0555 SABINA XD Bt0.07 Bt0.011 GLOW XD Bt1.90

KTB XD Bt0.88 ASIA XD Bt2.00 SIS XD Bt0.20

KTB-P XD Bt1.03 FORTH XD Bt0.15 SPORT XD Bt0.02

QH XD Bt0.09 HFT XD Bt0.15

SCCC XD Bt7.00 LHBANK XD Bt0.03

TMB XD Bt0.04 LHBANK XD 30:1

Bt1.00

MEGA XD Bt0.18

MODERN XD Bt0.30


9


28 29 30 CHG XD Bt0.09 AMATA XD Bt0.25 CENTEL XD Bt0.40

EASTW XD Bt0.22 BAFS XD Bt0.70 CPALL XD Bt0.90

MFEC XD Bt0.45 BECL XD Bt0.90 CPI XD Bt0.03

NNCL XD Bt0.10 CSR XD Bt2.35 EMC XR 1:1

TICON XD Bt1.00 ICC XD Bt1.20 Bt0.50

TICON TSR 5:1 LH XD Bt0.15 KAMART XD Bt0.06

TRC XD Bt0.05 PB XD Bt0.60 KKP XD Bt1.65

UOBKH XD Bt0.15 SRICHA XD Bt1.55 LRH XD Bt0.34

TISCO XD Bt2.00 LST XD Bt0.20

TISCO-P XD Bt2.00 NC XD Bt0.45

OCC XD Bt0.80

OHTL XD Bt14.0

PG XD Bt0.45

PR XD Bt0.99

PRECHA XD Bt0.05

S & J XD Bt0.80

SAUCE XD Bt1.35

SCG XD Bt0.20

SE-ED XD Bt0.18

SHANG XD Bt1.50

SORKON XD Bt2.43

SPC XD Bt1.00

SPI XD Bt0.23

SYMC XD Bt0.43

TF XD Bt1.75

TNL XD Bt0.95

TOPP XD Bt4.60

TPCORP XD Bt0.50

TWFP XD Bt0.88

TWS XD Bt2.00

UPOIC XD Bt0.40

WACOAL XD Bt2.25

Source: SET


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List of management who submitted the changes in securities holding report

Company Name of Management Relationship Types Transaction

Date Amount

Outstanding %

Avg. Price (Bt)

The methods

MBAX PISUTH LERTVILAI Reporter C 10/04/2014 22,200 0.02 2.86 Buy SEAFCO TACHAPONG PRAVESVARARAT Reporter C 11/04/2014 8,000 0.00 4.50 Buy SUSCO PIMUK SIMAROJ Reporter C 08/04/2014 100,000 0.01 3.08 Buy SMK PRADIT RODLOYTUK Reporter C 10/04/2014 400 0.00 464.00 Buy VIBHA YADA PUTTHKAYON Reporter C 11/04/2014 300,000 0.02 0.00 Receive DRT SUWIT KAEWAMPHUNSAWAT Reporter C 10/04/2014 33,000 0.00 6.05 Sell DRT SUWIT KAEWAMPHUNSAWAT Reporter C 11/04/2014 167,000 0.02 6.05 Sell E-W3 AMORN SRICHAWLA Reporter W 08/04/2014 6,000,000 1.86 0.12 Sell E-W3 AMORN SRICHAWLA Reporter W 09/04/2014 21,894,000 6.77 0.11 Sell E-W3 AMORN SRICHAWLA Reporter W 10/04/2014 2,529,200 0.78 0.11 Sell E-W3 KRIT SRICHAWLA Reporter W 08/04/2014 6,000,000 1.86 0.12 Sell E-W3 KRIT SRICHAWLA Reporter W 10/04/2014 10,000,000 3.09 0.10 Sell SANKO MASAMI KATSUMOTO Reporter C 08/04/2014 50,000 0.02 1.00 Sell SANKO MASAMI KATSUMOTO Reporter C 10/04/2014 50,000 0.02 1.00 Sell SMK PRADIT RODLOYTUK Reporter C 09/04/2014 100 0.00 476.00 Sell WHA JAKRIT CHAISANIT Reporter C 11/04/2014 10,000 0.00 32.50 Sell

Source: SET


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Daily bond reports Thai govt’s bond yields

Tenor(Years) Thai Govt Bond Change (bps) Swap (MID) Change (bps) Bond Swap (bps) 1Y 2.09 0.00 1.995 0.00 -9.50 2Y 2.27 0.00 2.235 -1.00 -3.50 3Y 2.56 -1.00 2.495 0.00 -6.50 4Y 2.94 -1.00 2.775 -1.00 -16.50 5Y 3.19 -2.00 3.005 -1.00 -18.50 6Y 3.27 -1.00 3.173 -1.20 -9.70 7Y 3.46 -2.00 3.325 -2.00 -13.50 8Y 3.47 -3.00 3.445 -1.50 -2.50 9Y 3.58 -3.00 3.555 -1.50 -2.50

10Y 3.67 -2.00 3.645 -2.00 -2.50

Active Govt. Bond Tenor Yield Change (bps) Index % LB155A 1.10 2.11 0.00 6MTHBFIX 1.96328 LB176A 3.17 2.59 -1.00 6MFDR 2.07 LB196A 5.16 3.10 -1.00 MLR 6.75 LB21DA 7.68 3.42 -4.00 BIBOR 2.27 Source: Bloomberg Comments -Total trading value of Thai gov’t bonds decreased by 11%. Bond yields moved down 0-3 bps on a offshore buying flows. Gov’t clean price index ended higher by 10 bps. -Yesterday US Treasury yields slightly fluctuated within a range of -0.01 to 2.64 bps. There was no change for 2Y yields while 7Y yields increased by 1.94 bps.

Calendar of Government Debt Securities Action in April 2014

Mon 14 Tue 15 Wed 16 Thu 17 Fri 18 Total

BOT162A - 10,000 CB14506A - 30,000

40,000

Source : www.ibond.thaibma.or.th

Primary Market Bond- IRPC (A-) 3Y : 3.90-4.10%,5Y : 4.40-4.60%, 7Y : 4.90-5.10%

Bookbuild : 25 Apr 2014, Issue Date : 9 May 2014, Subscription : 6 - 8 May 2014

Total Trading Value 916,551.28mn Buy Sell Net Asset Mgnt. Companies* 3,691.36 3,037.41 653.95 Non-Dealer License* 47.69 10.27 37.42 Foreign Companies 2,308.24 1,226.97 1,081.27 Remarks: Data excludes FX Bond / * Top 2 most active investors, Outright Trading TTM > 1Y

Source: Bloomberg, ThaiBMA

Thai Government Bond Curve

-3.50-3.00-2.50-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.500.00

2.002.202.402.602.803.003.203.403.603.804.00

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y

Change (bps) Thai Govt Bond

US Treasury Curve

-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.00

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y

Change (bps) US Treasury

www.ibond.thaibma.or.th


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Special Disclosures

Phatra Securities Public Company Limited (“Phatra”) does and seeks to do business with companies covered or mentioned in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Phatra may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this research report.

Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("Phatra") is the issuer or will be the issuer of derivative warrants that have underlying securities contained or mentioned in this research report. Should Phatra be the issuer of the derivative warrants, Phatra may act as the market maker for such derivative warrants. As a result, investors should be aware that Phatra may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this research report.

Copyright 2014 Phatra Securities Public Company Limited. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. This report has been prepared based on, among other things, fundamental research reports of Phatra Securities Public Company Limited (Phatra). It is issued by Private Wealth Management Research team and is not a publication of Phatra Research Group (Phatra Research). The information herein was obtained from various sources: we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Certain parts of this report are taken from previous research reports issued by Phatra and/or Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (MLPF&S). Please see full research reports for more details. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Officers of Phatra or one of its affiliates may have a financial interest in securities or the issuer(s) or in related investments. This report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments, including ADRs, effectively assume currency risk. Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on which investment principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments.


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Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies 2013 Disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market of Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.

The survey result is as of the data appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("Phatra") does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. In addition, the list only includes companies under Phatra’s coverage except those specified.

Companies with Excellent CG Scoring by alphabetical order under Phatra’s Coverage

Advanced Info Service Airports of Thailand Banpu Bangkok Bank Bangchak Petroleum

BTS Group Holdings LPN Property Development

Charoen Pokphand Foods Hemaraj Land and Development

Total Access Communication

Electricity Generating The Erawan Group Central Pattana INTUCH IRPC

Indorama Ventures Kasikornbank Krung Thai Bank Ch. Karnchang MCOT

Minor International Preuksa Real Estate PTT PTT Exploration PTT Global Chemical

Quality Houses Ratchaburi Electricity Generating

Robinson Department Store

Thai Airways International

Siam Cement

Supalai Thanachart Capital Siam Commercial Bank Thaicom Tisco Bank

Thai Military Bank Thai Oil True Corporation Thai Vegetable Oil

Companies with Very Good CG Scoring by alphabetical order under Phatra’s Coverage

Amata Corporation BEC World Bumrungrad Hospital Big C Supercenter Berli Jucker

Central Plaza Hotel CP All ESSO (Thailand) GFPT Glow Energy

Home Product Center Land & Houses Major Cineplex Group Siam City Cement Sansiri

Asian Property Development

Sino Thai Engineering and Construction

Ticon Industrial Connection

Thai Union Frozen Product

Companies with Good CG Scoring by alphabetical order under Phatra’s Coverage

Asia Aviation Bangkok Chain Hospital Siam Global House

N/A Companies without survey result available by alphabetical order under Phatra’s Coverage

MK Restaurant Thai Beverage Bangkok Dusit Medical Services

Tesco Lotus Retail Growth Property Fund

BTS Growth Infrastructure Fund

Nok Airlines

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