Phan Tich Cong Ty Vincom

8/10/2019 Phan Tich Cong Ty Vincom

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PHN TCH CNG TY VINCOM

Chng 1 : TNG QUAN V VINCOM

1.1Lch s hnh thnh

1.2Qu trnh pht trin

1.3Ngnh ngh kinh doanh

1.4Thnh tu t c

1.5nh gi nnglc ban qun tr

Chng 2 : PHNTCH MI TRNG V CHIN LC KINH DOANH

2.1 Phn tch ngnh Bt ng sn VitNam

2.1.1 Trin vng

2.1.2 Tc tng trng qua cc nm

2.1.3 Ngun nguyn liu

2.1.4 Nng lc sn xut

2.1.5 S cnh tranh ca ngnh

2.2 Phn tch hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty

2.2.1 Phn tch SWOT

2.2.2 Li th kinh t

2.2.3 Chin lc kinh doanh

2.2.4 Ri ro kinh doanh

Chng 3 : PHN TCH TI CHNH

3.1 Cc thng tin ti chnh :

3.2 Phn tch dng tin

3.3 Phn tch t sut sinhli v kh nng sinh li

3.4 Phn tch trin vng d phng Bo co ti chnh

3.4 nh gi


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TNG QUAN V VINCOM

Cng ty C phn Vincom (tin thn l Cng ty C phn Thng

mi Tng hp Vit Nam) c chnh thc thnh lp vo ngy

03/05/2002.

Tri qua hn 8 nm xy dng v pht trin, ti nay, Cng ty

Vincom tr thnh mt trong nhng doanh nghip Vit Nam hng

u trong lnh vc Bt ng sn. Hin ti, vn ha th trng ca

cng ty l 22.110 t ng, tc 1,16 t USD, ng u v quy m

trong s cc cng ty bt ng sn nim yt.

Thng 05/2002: thnh lp Cng ty C phn Thng mi Tng

hp Vit Nam vi vn iu l 251 t ng. Thng 11/2004: D n khu phc hp Vincom City Towers c

quy m ln nht ti H Ni chnh thc i vo hot ng.

Thng 07/2006: Bn ta thp A ca Vincom City Towers cho

Ngn hng BIDV.

Thng 09/2007: Tr thnh cng ty bt ng sn ln nht c

nim yt trn sn HOSE.

Thng 08/2009: a trung tm thng mi Vincom Park Place

i vo hot ng.

Thng 05/2010: Vn iu l tng ln 3,600 t VND.

LCH S HNH THNH

QU TRNH PHT TRIN


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- Pht trin v kinh doanh bt ng sn phn khc Trung tmthng mi, Vn phng cho thu v cn h cao cp.

- M rng kinh doanh sang cc loi hnh khu vui chi gii tr,

spa v phng tp th dc cao cp

- Sn giao dch bt ng sn Vincom

Tr thnh

tp on u t

v kinh doanh

Bt ng sn

mang thng

hiu ln nht

Vit Nam

Mc tiu ca Vincom l phn u pht trin khng ngng, tng

bc tr thnh mt Tp on u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn

(BS) mang thng hiu Vit ln nht ti Vit Nam.

Trong nh hng nhm tr thnh thng hiu hng u v bt

ng sn cao cp ti Vit Nam, hot ng theo m hnh tp on,

Cng ty CP Vincom cn tham gia gp vn thnh lp v gi c phn

chi phi vo hng lot cc cng ty bt ng sn ln ti H Ni nh

Cng ty C phn u t v pht trin a c Hong Gia; Cng ty

C phn u t v Pht trin th Si ng; Cng ty bt ng sn

Viettronics...

Ngoi ra, Vincom cn c nhiu d n ang trong giai on xc

tin, lp phng n u t ti cc thnh ph ln khc ti Vit Nam

v tip tc hng ti mc tiu ln hn:

Pht huy nhng li th v uy tn to dng c trong

nc m rng kinh doanh BS trong khu vc v chu .

Phn u a Vincom tr thnh mt tp on kinh t ln

mnh vi s pht trin tng lc t nhiu hng kinh doanh nh

kinh doanh ti chnh ngn hng, u t cc khu vui chi gii tr, khu

du lch sinh thi, sn golf tiu chun quc t v khu ngh dng cao

cp

NGNH NGH KINH DOANH

MC TIU PHT TRIN


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cng vi i ng cng s ca mnh, ng thnh lp mt cng ty

chuyn v bt ng sn.

Tnh ti thi im ny, d cng ty c tui i cha n 10 nm

nhng VIC c thnh lp v pht trin bi mt i ng qun l

giu kinh nghim khng ch trong nc m c trn trng quc

t.Trong , phi k n ng L Khc Hip, ch tch Hi ng

Qun tr cng ty. ng theo ui ngnh Vt l v t t nghip

trng i hc Tng hp KharkovUkraina vi hc hm Tin s

Vt l. Vi khnng giao tip thin ph v kin thc uyn bc, ng

tng tr thnh Ph Tng Gim c ph trch i ngoi ca Chi

nhnh Cng ty Bo him Nhn thPrudential, sau nggia nhp

Cng ty CP Vincom v t nglun l ngi chra ng hng

pht trin a Cng ty n c s thnh cng nh ngy hm

nay. Khng nhng vy, ng cn m nhim vtr Ph Chtch Tp

on Vingroup ph trch cng tc i ngoi. Kn, Tng gim

c Vincom, b Mai Hng Ni, b tri qua nhiu v tr v

thnh t trn cng v Ph Gim c Trung tm Dch v Khchhng Bu in H Ni, thuc VNPT. Vi mt quyt nh y mo

him, b c mt bc ngot khi quyt nh ri bVNPT, mt

doanh nghip nh nc hng u, chuyn sang lm Tng Gim c

mt doanh nghip cn rt tr: Cng ty CP Vincom. Di s iu

hnh ca b, Cng ty CP Vincom hot ng ngy cng trnn quy

cv ln mnh; thng hiu VINCOM trthnh thng hiu uy

tn trn th trng v ginh c nhiu gii thng ln nh Sao

Vng t Vit, Thng hiu Mnh Vit Nam, Doanh nghip hi

nhp thnh cng nht. B Mai Hng Ni cng vinh dc

nhn nhiu gii thng cao qu nh: Doanh Nhn ASEAN; Nh

Qun l chuyn nghip gii Chu nm 2010 tn vinh nhng

doanh nhn, doanh nghip c ng gp ln cho spht trin ca x

hi. Ngoi ra, sthnh cng ca tp on Vincom cn c sng


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gp khng nhca ba tng gim c l b Nguyn Diu Linh, ng

Hong Bch Dngvng Phm Vn Khng.

Do , vic VIC t c nhng thnh cng ln nh vy khng

n thun ch l s may mn m l do cng rt ln ca ban lnh o

cng ty.

TNG QUAN VNGNH BT NG SN VIT NAM

Trin vng

ngnh

Bt ng sn

dkin sl

mt trong

nhng ngnh c

iu kin thun

li pht trin

nhanh chng

trong thi gian

ti.

Chu k kinh t l yu tquan trng tc ng ti hot ng ca mi

ngnh, mi lnh vc. Thc tcho thy, cng vi spht trin kinh tca

Vit Nam, lnh vc xy dng ni chung khng ngng tng trng qua

cc nm. c bit trong khong 10 nm tr li y (ngoi tr giai on

suy thoi cui 2008 u 2009), tc tng trng bnh qun ngnhxy dng vt qua tc tng trng chung ca nn kinh t (tnh theo

gi trthc t).

Bt ng sn (BS) lun l lnh vc thu ht u tkhi nn kinh t

cui giai on suy thoi nhm to nn tng cho mt giai on tng

TRIN VNG NGNH


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trng mi. Theo , vi chu kkinh t10 nm ca Vit Nam, kvng

giai on 2010 2011 skhi u cho mt chu kmi, to chi cho

hot ng u txy dng ni chung, c bit llnh vcbt ng sn.

Nh vy, vi kvng kinh tVit Nam s bc vo chu k kinh t

mi t nm 2010, lnh vc bt ng sn d kin s lmt trong nhng

ngnh c iu kin thun li pht trin nhanh chng trong thi gian

ti.

Ngoi ra, tc tng trng kinh t v dn s ca Vit Nam ang

mc cao. nnm 2030, d kin dn s sng ti H Ni s gn 10 triu

ngi v ti Tp.HCM l hn 12 triu ngi. Nu tnh theo tiu chun din

tch nh bnh qun 15 m2/ngi th trong giai on 2010 - 2030, hai

thnh ph ln ny s cn phi cn thm khong 160 trium2 nh p

ng c nhu cu nh . y cng chnh l c s quan trng cc

doanh nghip trong ngnh tip tc mnh dn u t vo cc d n a c

tim nng.

Tng quan

ngnh bt ng

Th trng BS thng hnh thnh v pht trin qua 4 cp : s

khi, tp trung ha, tin t ha v ti chnh ha. Sau 20 nm pht trin,

hin ti, th trng BS Vit Nam ang c s giao thoa gia hai giai

TNG QUAN NGNH


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sn Vit Nam on 2 v3. c im ca thi k ny lspht trin nhanh chng v

bng n cc doanh nghip xy dng BS. Tuy nhin khng phi doanh

nghip no cng nng lc shu vpht trin mt dn BS do

thiu ngun lc nht ai, nng lc xy dng, hay vn. V vy, cp

pht trin ny, cc chnh sch v xy dng, c quan qun l xy dng,

cc chnh sch ngn hng, cc ngn hng vcquan qun l ngn hng

c vai tr quan trng.

im mnh

BS l lnh vc hp dn vn u t nc ngoi: 2007, 2008 l2

nmbng nvn FDI vo thtrng BS. Sang nm 2009, cng vi suy

thoi kinh t, tng vn FDI vo Vit Nam st gim mnh. Tuy nhin vn

u tcho BS vn chim hn35% tng vn FDI. Nhvy, tnh t

nm 2007 n ht 6 thng u 2010, ttrng u tvo lnh vc BS

bnh qun chim hn28% tng vn FDI v l1 trong 3 ngnh thu ht

FDI ln nht

Ngun lao ng di do: Hin dn s Vit Nam l khong 85.8

triu dn, trong 62% thuc tui lao ng. Vi c cu kinh t

gim dn t trng ca lnh vc nng nghip, cng vi nh hng

ca c gii ha, ang c s dch chuyn lao ng t lnh vc nng

lm nghip sang lnh vc cng nghip v dch v. T l lao ng hot

ng trong lnh vc xy dng lin tc gia tng v chim khong 5.6%

lao ng c nc trong nm 2009. Lnh vc cng nghip v dch v. T


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l lao ng hot ng trong lnh vc xy dng lin tc gia tng v

chim khong 5.6% lao ng c nc trong nm 2009.

Th trng bt ng sn cn nhiu tim nng : Phn khc nh "bnh dn" c nh gi c tim nng nht:

l bi nhu cu nh trong ngi dn rt ln, trong khi thu nhp mc

trung bnh.

Nhu cu mt bng bn l, trung tm thng mi tip tc tng:Vit

Nam s hu th trng tiu dng rng ln v tim nng. Thi quen mua

sm ti cc trung tm thng mi ca ngi dn ang dn hnh thnh.

Cng vi , l trnh m ca cho cc tp on bn l quc t s l yu tkhin nhu cu mt bng bn l tng mnh.

Tim nng phn khc BS ngh dng: Vit Nam c li th

s hu ng b bin di v p nh Nng, Nha Trang. Theo s

liu nghin cu ca Hip hi bt ng sn Vit Nam, tnh n qu

III/2010, ngun cung bit th cc d n BS nghdng tng 5 ln

v ngun cung cn h tng 3 ln. Con s ny cho thy sc hp dn ca

phn khc th trng ny, ng thi cng th hin p lc cnh tranh s

tng ln trong thi gian ti.

im yu

Tim lc vn ca cc DN trong ngnh cn khim tn: c

tnh, s vn u t vo BS ca Vit Nam c ti 60% l vn vay Ngn

hng. Vic ph thuc qu ln vo vn Ngn hng khng ch tim

n ri ro li sut m cn khin DN chu nhiu nh hng khi chnh

sch tin t c bin ng.

Nguyn liu cho sn xut VLXD ph thuc ln vo nhp


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Thu ht vn t th trng khc

Trong th trng ti chnh Vit Nam, bn cnh BS th vng,

chng khon cng l nhng knh thu ht lng vn u t ln.

Trong iu kin v thctrng mi th trng m c s lun chuyn

vn t th trng ny sang th trng khc. Trn thc t, s lun

chuyn vn u t t knh chng khon sang knh BS tng din ra

vo qu II/2010 khi th trng BS Ba V to cn st. Tuy nhin, t

30/3/2010, hot ng giao dch vng v kinh doanh vng trn ti khon

trong nc phi chm dt, TTCK li lin tc c nhng giai on i

ngang v st gim mnh, thm ch ghi nhn nhng mc im thp

nht k t u nm 2010 trong thng 8/2010. Trong bi cnh ny,

u t BS tr nn kh hp dn v c kh nng s thu ht mt

lng vn ln t cc knh u t khc.

Thch thc

Ri ro chnh sch: BS l ngun ti sn c gi tr ca mi

quc gia, th trng BS bin ng s nh hng ti hu ht cc hot

ng kinh t x hi. Do , cc vn v BS cn phi c s iu

chnh, ch phi ca h thng vn bn quy phm php lut. Vit

Nam, th trng BS vn ang trong giai on pht trin 2 v ang

hng ti giai on 3, tc l chu tc ng rt ln tnhng quyt nh

ca Nhnc, vvy, ri ro n tnhng thay i chnh sch l rt ln.

ncnhThng t13/2010/TT NHNN cthcoi l mt ri ro i

vi th trng BS. Theo thng t ny, h s ri ro i vi khon vay

kinh doanh BS s tng t 100% ln 250%, ng thi h s an ton

vn ca cc Ngn hng phi nng ln 9%. Nhvy, trong khi hot ng

u t BS Vit Nam ph thuc ln vo knh tn dng Ngn hng

th ngun vn ny s b thu hp v c nguy c gim mnh trong thi

gian ti.

Cnh tranh gia cc i th hin hu:

Th phn cng ln cng ty cng mnh xt v th cnh tranh.

S CNH TRANH TRONG NGNH


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Nhn vo bng t l vn ha ngnh bn trn chng ta thy c

nhng cng ty bt ng sn c t l vn ha th trng ln nh:

Vincom (VIC) 40,5% ; Hong Anh Gia Lai (HAG) 25,43%;u t

Pht trin th v Khu Cng nghip Sng (SJS) 8.3%... y lnhng doanh nghip ln c kh nng cnh tranh mnh trn th

trng.Mt khc, vth cnh tranh cng vng chc hn nu cng ty

c nng lc c bit v nghin cu v pht trin, Marketing, hiu

bit th trng, to c uy tn nhn hiu nhng th mnh vt

tri m cc i th khng c c.Cng ty c th phn ln nht vi

nng lc cnh tranh mnh nht, c o nht s c v th cnh tranh

tt nht.

V th cnh tranh ca mt cng ty so vi cc i th c thhin qua th phn v nng lc phn bit ring c ca cng ty.

Nng lc ring bit, hay cn c bit nh nng lc cnh tranh

ca doanh nghip l th hin thc lc v li th ca doanh nghip

so vi i th cnh tranh trong vic tho mn tt nht cc i hi


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C hi:

- Vit Nam sau khi gia nhp WTO

tr thnh mt im u t hp dnca bnb quc t. Nhm p ng nhu cu pht trin

v hi nhp quc t ca Vit Nam, chin

lc hng ti bt ng sn cao cp ca

Vincom s l mt chin lc hp dn v y

tim nng, t c th nh hng trc tip

theo hng tch cc n doanh thu v li

nhun ca Vincom.

- Vi nhng li th v uy tn m

Vincom k cng to dng sut 8 nm

hot ng, Vincom ang s hu cho mnh

mt c hi ln vn tm nhn ca mnh

sang khu vc ng Nam v Chu , tng

bc to nn 1 tp on kinh doanh bt ngsn tim nng cho cc nh u t trn khp

cc nc trong cng khu vc.

- Vi s pht trin tt c cc ngun lc

t nhiu hng kinh doanh nh trong lnh

vc ti chnh ngn hng, u t khu vui chi

gii tr, du lch sinh thi, sn golfVIC v ang to cho mnh c hi tr thnh mi

tp on kinh t ln mnh.

Thch thc:

- Vit Nam gia nhp WTO mc d

s to nhiu iu kin thun li chovic pht trin vt bc trong vic kinh

doanh v to s vng chc cho thng

hiu ca Vincom, nhng bn cnh

Vincom cng s phi i mt kh nhiu

vi nhiu s cnh tranh t nhng cng

ty cng ngnh c vn u t nc

ngoi hay nhng cng ty n t ngoi

nc, vnu nh thc hin khng hon

thin nhng chin lc ra hay c

mt vi chin thut khng ng n th

cngty s gnh nhng hu qu kh ln.

- Nhm khi phc nn kinh t hu

khng hong, chnh ph Vit Nam cth s ban hnh nhiu chnh sch i

mi m tc ng khng nh n ngnh

bt ng sn, do Vincom cng phi

i mt vi mt thch thc khc l

phi i trc n u nhng i mi

ny tr thnh nh tin phong trong

lnh vc bt ng sn.


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Vincom cho

ra i hng lot

cc d n bt

ng sn cao

cp c nh

gi rt cao vl

tm im ca

cc nh u t.

- Vincom s hu cho mnh mt thng hiu vng chc trn

ton th trng cho d ch mi l doanh nghip cn non tr vi hn

8 nm xy dng v pht trin.Ti nhiu khu vc ln ca nc,

Vincom cho ra i hng lot cc d n bt ng sn cao cp ,

nhng d n ny lun c nh gi rt cao v u l tm im ca

cc nh u t. Trong tng lai gn, cc cng trnh tm c quc t

mang thng hiu Vincoms ra mt trn khp t nc Vit Namv chng s gp phn xy dng thng hiu Vincom vng chc ni

ring v a Vit Nam thnh mt t nc hin i, pht trin ni

chung.

- Bn cnh , Vincom cn c nhiu li th v a im ti

trung tm thnh ph. Tndng li th ny v kinh nghim vn c,

Vincom u t c trng im vo cc d n bt ng sn nh: trung

tm thng mi, khu vui chi gii tr, vn phng v cn h cho thucao cp ti 2 thnh ph ln l H Ni v thnh ph H Ch Mi nh .

Trong tng lai,Vincom s m rng hot ng ra thnh ph Hi

Phng. iu mang li t sut sinh li ni b kh cao cho

Vincom.

Chin lc kinh doanh ca Vincom c xy dng da trn sc

mnh snc do chnh Vincom to dng ra trong sut 8 nm hot

ng. Vincom lun vch ra cho mnh mt chin lc kinh doanh v

u t sng sut v lnh mnh, nhm to s cnh tranh hiu qu i

vi cc i tc trong cc d n thng mi tm c quc t. V trn

c s Vincom lun to ra cc bc pht trin bt bc trong

CHIN L C KINH DOANH

LI TH KINH T


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tng lai:

- Pht trin v cn bng danh mc u t ca mnh bng vic

cung cp cho th trng a c nhiu sn phm a dng hn bngvic m rng sang lnh vc chung c trung cp, tm kim cc khu

t mi xy dng.

- Chin lc trung v di hn ca Vincom l tip tc tp trung

u t su vo cc d n bt ng sn cao cp ti khu vc th ln

trong c nc. Song song , Vincom cn xc tin y nhanh tin

trnh thi cng cc d n ang c trin khai.

- Vincom lun pht trin khng ngng tip tc duy tr v

nng cao sc mnh ca mnh - mt tp on kinh doanh bt ng

sn mang thng hiu Vit hng u ti Vit Nam. c bit l cng

ty lun ch trng ti vic nng cao cht lng dch v, tin ch v

tnh cht cao cp ti cc cng trnh ca ring mnh tng gi tr

thng hiu Vincom.

- Ngoi vic tp trung cc hot ng kinh doanh trong nc,

Vincom lp k hoch pht huy nhng li th v uy tn to dng

c trong nc m rng kinh doanh bt ng sn ra khp khu

vc ng Nam v rng hn na l chu . Vincom lun c gng

xy dng mt nn kinh t bt ng sn Vit Nam y bn lnh khp

cc cng quc nm chu.

- VIC ang di chuyn dn t khu vc trung tm (Central

Business District) ra bn ngoi vi hng lot cc d n ang trinkhai nh Royal City, Viettronics hay Eco City u ta lc ngoi

trung tm ca H Ni. Vic tin dn t ni thnh ra bn ngoi l

nhm mc ch tip cn cc phn khc khch hng thp hn nhng

ng o hn so vi lng khch hng cao cp hin ti ca VIC.

Hn na, qu t ti trung tm ngy cng khan him th chin lc

ly tm s thc hin d dng hn l ngc li. Mt khi VIC thc

hin cc d n cao cp ti khu vc trung tm th tm nh hng v


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uy tn ca VIC ngycng c nng cao gn nhng sn phm cht

lng cao trong tm tr khch hng, t to iu kin cho VIC

xm nhp th rng phn khc thp mt cch d dng hn.

- Theo k hoch m HQT v Ban lnh o Cng ty trnh lni Hi ng C ng, trong nm 2010 cng tc u t - kinh

doanh ca Vincom s tip tc c duy tr v y mnh hot ng

theo nh hng xc nh. Theo , Cng ty CP Vincom s phn

u tr thnh tp on a ngnh ly BS lm hng pht trin

trng tm chin lc;phn u tr thnh thng hiuhng u ca

Vit Nam v u t kinh doanh v qun l BS. Cng ty cng s

y mnh hn na vic Qun tr doanh nghip theo tiu chun quc

t, nm nay l nm th 6 lin tip Vincom lp v kim ton bo co

ti chnh hp nht theo chun mc quct IFRS.

T l n cao trong c cu ngun vn l im ri ro ln nht m

Vincom cn lo lng nht.

Tnh n ht thng 6/2010, tng n phi tr ca Vincom ln ti

13.054 t ( n di hn chim 88% v ch yu t tri phiu ). Nhng

vi gi th trng ca ton b cc d n m Vincom ang d tnh

bn vt rt cao so vi gi tr s sch nn c th ni Vincom vn

kh yn tm v kh nng thanh ton ca mnh.

Doanh thu n nh hng nm ca Vincom l t ngun cho thu

trung tm thng mi v vn phng. Hin ti tng doanh thu t

ngun cho thu trung tm thng mi v vn phng cho thu 3 ton

nh trn khong 3,7 triu USD/thng. Cho ti thi im hin nay,

Vincom ang khai thc 3ta nh sau:

RI RO TI CHNH

TNG TRNG DOANH THU V LI NHUN SAU THU


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Vincom City Towers (VCT): ta thp i cao 21 tng, ta lc

ti trung tm Thnh ph H Ni bao gm khu trung tm thng mi

v vn phng cho thu cao cp, c hon thnh thng 11 nm

2004.

Vincom Park Place (VPP): cao 25 tng bao gm cn h v khu

trung tm thng mi cao cp c v tr st cnh Vincom City Towers

c hon thnh vo thng 8/2009. Ton b cc cn h ti Vincom

Park Place c bn ht v doanh thu c ghi nhn trn bo

co ti chnh qu 4/2009.

Vincom Center (VC): Ta lc trn din tch 10.843m2, bao

gm 26 tng ni v 6 tng hm ti trung tm Thnh ph H Ch

Minh. D n VC bao gm khu cn h, trung tm thng mi v vn

phng cao cp, bi xe tng hm. Hin ti, khong 90% din tch

trung tm thng mi ccho thu.

Ngoi cc d n ang khai thc Vincom cn 8 d n khc ang

trong giai on trin khai v y chnh l cc d n to ra tc

tng trng vt bc vli nhun ca Vincom trong 5 nm ti.

V kt qu hot ng kinh doanh trong nm 2009 c mc doanh

thu tng t bin l do vic pht sinh doanh thu chuyn nhng cn

h Vincom Park Place.

Tng kt hot ng 9 thng u nm 2010, Vincom t doanh

thu 597.278.072.031 ng, li nhun sau thu t 137.051.376.576

ng. Qua , tng trng 198% doanh thu, v gim 11% li nhun

so vi 9 thng u nm 2009. So vi cng k nm trc, tngdoanh thu tng mnh do ng gp ca hot ng cho thu trung tm

thng mi ti Vincom Park Place v Vincom Center mi khai

trng ti TP.H Ch Minh. Cn v phn li nhun gim l do mt

s cc khon chi ph tng ln lin quan ti vic cng ty thc hin

u t mt lot cc d n mi.

Vi th mnh trong lnh vc bt ng sn cao cp, Vincom

khng nhng xy dng nhng to nh ln m cn u t vo nhng


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Cu trc vn Hiu qu hot ng kinh doanh

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009

Tng n/ Vn ch s hu 155.8% 293.7% 516.6% Vng quay ti sn c nh 1.55 0.11 0.44

Tng n/ Tng ti sn 39.2% 73.1% 74.6% Vng quay tng ti sn 0.06 0.04 0.14

Vay ngn hn/Vn ch s hu 10.8% 73.6% 71.0%Vng quay cc khon phithu

0.63 0.49 1.96

Vay di hn/ Vn ch s hu 56.8% 220.1% 445.6%K thu tin bnh qun(ngy)

578.53 746.62 186.30

Vay ngn hn/ Tng ti sn 6.3% 18.3% 10.2% Vng quay hng tn kho 1,335.13 9.50 137.09

Vay di hn/ Tng ti sn 32.9% 54.8% 64.4%Thi gian tn kho bnhqun(ngy)

0.27 38.43 2.66

Vng quay cc khon phitr

0.14 0.05 0.18

Kh nng thanh tonK thanh ton bnh qun

(ngy)2,524.61 6,713.18 1,973.89

2007 2008 2009

Kh nng thanh ton hin hnh 12.69 2.15 5.13 Kh nng sinh liKh nng thanh ton nhanh 12.69 2.13 5.12 2007 2008 2009

Kh nng thanh ton tin mt 2.49 0.02 0.30 Li nhun sau thu/ Doanhthu(1) 148.8% 52.1% 45.5%

EBITDA/ Tng n 0.14 0.04 0.14 Doanh thu/ Tng ti sn(2) 5.7% 4.0% 13.8%

EBIT/ chi ph li vay 6.04-

0.64-

5.88Tng ti sn/ Vn c

phn (3)172

.6%

402

.0%

692

.5%

EBITDA/ chi ph li vay 8.24

-

0.64

-

6.26 ROE (1) x (2) x (3)

14.

6%

8.3

%

43.

5%

Tc tng trng ROA 8.4% 2.1% 6.3%

2007 2008 2009 EBITDA/ doanh thu 97.0% 74.6% 77.5%

Tc tng trng doanh thu 32.7% 725.5% EBITDA/ Tng ti sn 5.5% 3.0% 10.7%

Tc tng trng EBT -53.0% 783.0%Li nhun trc thu/doanh thu 180.1% 59.2% 69.4%

Tc tng trng EAT -53.1% 774.4% Li nhun sau thu/ ti sn 10.2% 2.4% 9.6%

Tc tng trng EPS -75.7% 388.4%

Tc tng trng tng ti sn 89.4% 137.7%

Tc tng trng vn ch s hu 87.2% 38.0%


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23

V c cuvn

Cho chng ta bit doanh nghip s dng bao nhiu n, bao

nhiu vn ch s hu m bo cho hot ng sn xut

kinh doanh ca mnh. Kt hp vi doanh thu v li nhun c

th nh gi c tnh hp l v hiu qu ca vic s dngn vay trong doanh nghip.

- Vincom kh mnh bo trong vic s dng n, nhiu hn

Kinh Bc v hn c ngnh (54.7%) th hin c tham vng

ca Vincom trong chin lc kinh doanh tr thnh cng ty BS

ln nht Vit Nam. Vincom c h s n v t n vay di hn

trn tng ti sn nm 2009 cao gn gp 2 ln nm 2008 v cao

hn rt nhiu lnso vi cng ty Kinh Bc. Xt v t l N/Vn

ch s hu ca VIC rt cao, hin ti cao nht trong ngnh

BS. Trong tng n 10.400 t ng, tng ng 545 triu

USD c khong 100 triu USD l tri phiu quc t c pht

hnh ti Singapore, chng t VIC khng ch c kh nng huy

ng vn trong nc m c trn th trng quc t. Ngoi ra,

cng ty cn ang chun b nim yt trn sn chng khon

Singapore. Mt khi hon tt, VIC s c thm mt s la chn

khi cn huy ng vn t nh u t nc ngoi u t cho

cc d n ln sp ti.

c trng ca hot ng xy dng v kinh doanh bt ng

snl khon ngi mua tr tin trc, chi ph thu xy dng v

tin mua t chim t trng kh ln trong n phi tr. Nhng

khon mc ny ca VIC tng mnh trong nm 2009, mt mt

lm tng h s n nhng mt khc cho thy tim nng tng

trng doanh thu ca doanh nghip trong tng lai.

V kh nngsinh li

Phn tch kh nng sinh li ca doanh nghip gip cho

chng ta c tnh c t sut sinh li sinh ra t doanh thu,

t ngun vn hay t vn u t nh th no, tch bit thnh

qu hot ng kinh doanh ra khi u t v ti tr.


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24

- ROE ca Vincom tng rt mnh trong nm 2009, trong

khi Cng ty Kinh Bc ch tng 6%, v li nhun thun t

HKD/ doanh thu rt cao 95% cho thy kh nng s dng vn

ca Vincom rt hiu qu . Doanh thu tng mnh, trong khi chi ph sn xut tng nhng khng ln lm tng nhanh li

nhun gp. T nhng h s trn, ta c th khng nh c kh

nng sinh li cao v tc tng trng rt ln t pha Vincom.

V hiu qu

hot ngCc chshot ng cho thy doanh nghip hot ng,

vn hnh tt nh thno, vic sdng ti sn hiu qunh

thno.

- Trong nm 2008, do bnh hng tcuc khng hong

ton cu, Vincom c k thu tin bnh qun kh cao, ngha l

khong 746 ngy cng ty mi thu hi c n. iu cho

thy rng hiu sut s dng vn ca cng ty km do vn b

chim dng kh nhiu. Nhng n nm 2009, tnh hnh thay

i. Svng quay cc khon phi thu ca Vincom vt mc

so vi cKinh Bc l 1.96 vng, kthu tin bnh qun gim

xung ch cn 186 ngy. Ta c th nhn xt rng hu khng

hong, Vincom ang dn hi phc v ly li uy thca mnh so

vi cc i thcnh tranh trong cng ngnh ( nh l Kinh Bc

).

- Cn i vi s vng quay hng tn kho, nm 2009

tng hn 14 ln so vi cng knm ngoi. Chkhong 3 ngyl Vincom c thtiu thc sn phm ca mnh, chng t

trong giai on hi phc v sau khi a ra thtrng hng lot

cc dn cao cp, Vincom c sn nhn kh thun li

ca khch hng cho cc sn phm ca mnh. iu s to

thm ng lc to ln cho spht trin vng mnh ca mt tp

on bt ng sn hng u Vit Nam.


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25

- Bn cnh khng thkhng cp n svng quay

cc khon phi trca Vincom. So vi Kinh Bc, Vincom c s

vng quay thp hn, iu chng t rng Vincom c cc

khon nn hn t hn so vi Kinh Bc, mc d vic chathhin c rng Vincom khng shu lng ln cc khon

cn thanh ton. Nhng n cng cho thy Vincom c thsdng

chin lc vay di hn hn l cc khon vay ngn hn c th

linh hot hn trong vn chi tr.

Nm 2009, Kinh Bc c hiu sut sdng ti sn cnh v

tng ti sn thp hn so vi nm 2008. Trong khi , Vincom

li c chiu hng tng 2 t s ln. iu chng minh

c rng, vi 1 ng ti sn cnh v tng ti sn tham gia

vo qu trnh hot ng kinh doanh, Vincom to ra c

nhiu doanh thu hn, cng c ngha l Vincom thc hin cc

chin thut kinh doanh sao cho cng ty t c hiu qu s

dng ti sn cnh cng nh tng ti sn cao hn so vi Kinh

Bc.

V kh nngthanh ton

Cc ch s thanh ton cho thy kh nng chi tr cc

khon n n hn ( vay ngn hn, vay di hn n hn tr

hay cc khon phi tr khc ) da trn ti sn lu ng v s

lng hng tn kho ca doanh nghip nh th no.

- Kh nng thanh ton nhanh v kh nng thanh ton hin

hnh ca Vincom tng kh cao t 2008 n 2009, gn 5 ln,trong khi Kinh Bc ch tng hn 1.5 ln kh nng thanh ton

ca cng ty.Bn cnh , Kinh Bc cng c ch skh nng

thanh ton thua km so vi Vincom. iu cho thy 1$ n

n hn ca Vincom c kh nng c m bo chi tr cao hn

Kinh Bc v Vincom cng s hu cho mnh t l phn trm cc

ti sn c tnh thanh khon cao hn. Tuy nhin, t s thanh ton

hin hnh qu cao s lm gim hiu qu hot ng. Nm 2009


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26

Vincom c t s thanh ton hin hnh ln ti 5.13. C th trong

nm 2009, Vincom qun l ti sn lu ng khng hiu qu (

ti sn lu ng bao gm cc khon vn bng tin, cc khon

phi thu, hng tn kho, ).- Ngoi ra, Kinh Bc lun s hu cho mnh ts kh nng

thanh ton tin mt cao hn Vincom. iu cho thy Kinh

Bc thc hin chi tr cc khon n ca mnh bng lng tin

mt nhiu hn so vi Vincom.

Tm li,chng ti nh gitnh hnh sc khe ti chnh ca Vincom kh tt, nhng

cn xem li vic s dng n by ti chnh qu cao v kh nng thanh ton ca doanh

nghip.

PHN TCH DNG TIN

-8,000,000

-6,000,000

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

2007 2008 2009

Dng tin

Dng tin hot ng kinhdoanh

Dng tin u t

Dng tin HD Ti chnh

Dng tin thun trong k

Dng tin thun cui k

Dng tin FCFE

Dng tin FCFF


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27

Trong giai on 2007 2009, r rng ta thy dng tin ca cng ty t hot ng ti

chnh b p li cho hot ng kinh doanh v u t. Nm 2009, hot ng u t

mang mt lng ln dng tin ra trong khi dngtin t hot ng kinh doanh bt u

tng do s tng ln ca li nhun sauthi k ng bng di ca ngnh bt ng sn.

V ngun vn

lun chuyn S tng ln ca cc khon phi thu v chi ph tr trc lm tng

ln dng tin ra ca hot ng kinh doanh VIC. Thc vy, k thu

tin bnh qun l 503, 82 ngy lm gim i kh nng thanh ton

ca VIC. Hnh di y l s thay i trung bnh ca cc thnh

phn chnh ca dng tin hot ng kinh doanh.

-8,000,000

-6,000,000

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

2007 2008 2009

Bin ng ngun tin

Kinh doanh

u t

Ti chnh

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Khu hao Cc khonphi thu

Cc khonphi tr

HNG TNKHO

Chi ph trtrc

Cc thnh phn chnh trong HKD

DNG TIN KINH DOANH


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28

S tng ln ca khu hao v cc khon phi tr b p phn no

dng tin ra ca hot ng kinh doanh, tng ng vi n l vng

quay khon phi tr st gim t 0.14 xung cn 0.05 trong nm2008.

Trong giai on 2007 2009, li nhun rng c s bin ng

ln do s nh hng nng n ca khng hong ti chnh nn li

nhun rng nm 2008 ca VIC ch cn gn 123 t ng so vi 269

t ng ca nm 2007, nhng sau li nhun tng mnh m tr li

ly t doanh thu ca 2 d n Vincom City Tower v Vincom Park

Place a vo hot ng nm 2009.

L mt cng ty chuyn v bt ng sn nhng Vincom dnh

mt t trng ln trong ngn sch vn cho vic u t ti chnh. C

th l, cui nm 2007, u t ti chnh ngn hn l 1750 t ng,

n cui nm 2008 con s ny l gn 1690 t ng, gim khng

nhiu so vi thi im cui nm trc. Trong , cc khon u t

chng khon ca VIC l hn 115 t ng, cc khon u t khc l

hn 1590 t ng. Ngoi ra, VIC cn c mt khon u t ngn hn

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2007 2008 2009

Li nhun rng

Dng tinthun cui k

Dng tin thot ng kinhdoanh

DNG TIN U T


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29

L mt cng

ty chuyn v

bt ng snnhng

Vincom

dnh mt t

trng ln

trong ngn

sch vn chovic u t ti

chnh

khc cng kh ln t hn 1590 t cho cc cng ty lin doanh lin

kt vay. Tnh chung cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn ca VIC

bng ti khong 140% vn iu l v 104% vn ch s hu.

Bn cnh cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn, u t ti chnhdi hn ca VIC cng l mt con s khng l so vi cc doanh

nghip khc trong ngnh.

Tnh n thi im cui nm 2008, u t ti chnh di hn ca

doanh nghip l hn 793 t ng. Trong u t gp vn vo cc

cng ty lin doanh lin kt l gn 700 t ng (Cng ty c phn

BS BIDV, Cng ty BS Hi Phng hay CP u t du lch

Vinpearl Hi An ) .

Mua sm thit b, xy dng TSC gp phn mang i mt lng

tin ln t dng tin hot ng u t. Vi cc d n Trung tm

thng mi hay vn phng cho thu i hi vn ban u rt ln v

khng th huy ng tin t ngi mua hay khch hng, v vy VIC

nhy sang chuyn hng phn khc nh dn c thu ht vn

c chia s bi ngi mua nh, in hnh l 2 d n Royal city v

Eco city.

Vi khon u t ti chnh ln, mt lng ln dng tin chi ra,

vic chi tiu mua sm , xy dng TSC cng gp phn lm cho

dng tin u t m. Hnh di y l s thay i trung bnh ca

cc khon u t trong giai on 2007 - 2009


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30

C th ni vi dng tin u t mang gi tr m, ta thy c

tim nng trong tng lai ca VIC, v cc d n cng vi cc cng

ty lin kt ang a vo hot ng v c ngun thu ln hn cho

VIC.

Tuy nhin, r rng vi mt doanh nghip bt ng sn nh VIC,

vic u t qu nhiu vo u t ti chnh khng phi l mt li thnht l u t vo th trng chng khon. Th trng ti chnh

trong nm 2008 gim st gy ra nhiu kh khn cho VIC phi gnh

chu t nhng khon u t ny.

Tri ngc vi dng tin u t v dng tin kinh doanh, dngtin ti tr c xu hng tng. Vi kh nng huy ng vn c t

nhiu ngun khc nhau nh ngn hng, chnh ph, khch hng hay

c ng, to ra mt dng tin vo rt ln cho VIC. Mt cu hi

t ra vi mt lng vn vay nhiu nh vy, th khon li vay phi

tr rt ln, theo tnh ton ca chng ti th li vay hng nm ca

VIC c th ln n 200 t ng, liu rng s huy ng vn ln nh

vy c tt cho VIC hay khng?

-1,302,682

83,805

-2,331,402

2,318,891

-1,458,483

556,500

137,294

Mua sm, xydng TSC

Thanhl, nhngbn TSC

Cho vay, muacc cng c

n

Thu hi chovay, cc cng

c n

u t gpvn vo n

v khc

thu hi ut gp vn

Thu li chovay, c tc vLN c chia

DNG TIN U T

DNG TIN TI TR


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S lin h caba dng tin ny nh th no, chng ta cng nhau nh gi t s

chuyn bit nh gi c tim nng ca doanh nghip cng nh cc mt kh

khn ca VIC?

T trng ca

cc dng tin

vo v ra

Phn ln, dng tin vo caVIC n t hot ng ti tr (chim

n 57%), c bit l t cc khon vay ngn v di hn( 80% dng

tin ti tr), ngc li, dng tin u t li chim a s dng tin ra

chim n 81%.Nh vy, nhn chung VIC tn dng kh nng huy

ng vn rt tt ca mnh pht trin nhng d n u t trong

tng lai. Hnh sau y l bc tranh dng tin ca VIC , vi im

nhn quan trng l dng tin ti tr rt cao ng thi vi hot ng

u t chim t trng ln trong dng tin ra ca doanh nghip trong

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Pht hnhCP,vn CSH

Tr vn gpCSH, mua li CP

Vay ngn,dihn

Tr n gc vay C tc, LN tr cho ch s

hu

DNG TIN T HOT NG TI CHNH


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giai on 2007 2009.

Sau y, chng ta s i su vo nhng t s chuyn bit v dng tin bit rhn thc s tin ca doanh nghip nh th no?

2007 2008 2009

1/ Tnh thanh khon v kh nng thanh tonDng tin hot ng / N ngn hn 52.09% -5.59% 17.78%

2/ T s dng tin (FFC)EBITDA / (Li vay + Chi tr n n hn + C tc

iu chnh thu) 0.283 0.217 1.0423/ T s kh nng chi tr n (CDC)

(Dng tin hot ng - Chi tr c tc) / N hin

hnh 27.13% 22.90% 26.68%4/ T s tin mt chi trn chi tiu vn (C/CE)

10%

33%57%

T trng dng tin vo

Dng tin hot ng

Dng tin u t

Dng tin ti tr

14%

81%

5%

T trng dng tin ra

Dng tin hot ng

Dng tin u t

Dng tin ti tr


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33

Dng tin t hot ng / Chi tiu vn 37.40% -2.86% 15.83%5/ T s tin mt trn tng n (C/TD)

Dng tin hot ng / Tng n 8.35% -1.40% 2.44%6/ T s m bo dng tin

Dng tin hot ng / Tng chi tiu vn + Tngthm hng tn kho v c tc 18.60% -2.83% 15.42%

Tnh thanhkhon v kh

nng thanh ton

Cho bit doanh nghip c tin nhng liu rng doanh nghip c kh nng tr n hay khng?

Theo nh ta thy, nm 2007 lng tin mt ca DN p ng

c 52.09% kh nng chi tr n. Trong khi , nm 2008 kh

nng hon ton khng c (m) do nm 2008 vng phi cuc

khng hong ti chnh ton cu nn tnh hnh kinh doanh caVincim ni ring v cc doanh nghip khc ni chung u i

xung. V tip sau , nm 2009 l nm hukhng hong, nhng

nh kh nng lnh o v ti kinh doanh ca Vincom, cng ty

nng kh nng thanh ton ca mnh ln mc 17.78%.

T s dng tinFFC

Dng xem xt 1 ng chi ph ti chnh theo ngha v c

tr bng bao nhiu ng li nhun trc thu, li vay v khu

hao.

Nm 2007, mtng chi ph ti chnh c chi tr bi 0.283

ng li nhun trc thu, li vay v khu hao. Sau do nh

hng cuc khng hong nm 2008, li nhun trc thu, li vay

v khu hao ca cng ty ch p ng 21.7% chi ph ti chnh.

n nm 2009, nh vo vic mc doanh thu tng t bin do vic

pht sinh donah thu chuyn nhng cn h Vincom Park Place nn

EBITDA cu cng ty kh cao, dn n 1 ng chi ph ti chnh ca

cng ty c chi tr bi 1.042 ng EBITDA. iu cho thy,

cng ty c kh nng phc hi kh nhanh trong giai on hu

khng hong ny.

T s kh nngchi tr n CDC

Nhm xem xt kh nng chi tr cc khon n hin ti ca

doanh nghip.

Vincom lun gi cho mnh 1 kh nng chi tr cc khon n n


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34

hn trong nm hin hnh xp x khong 25%. Theo con s ,

chng ti a ra nhn nh rng kh nng cn thp so vi s lng

n m cng ty ang phi i mt.

T s tin mttrn chi tiu vn(C/CE)

Dng xem xt kh nng chi tiu vn ca lng tin mt hinang c ca cng ty.

Giai on trc cuc khng hong 2008, lng tin mt

Vincom c p ng 27.13% nhu cu chi tiu vn (mua sm ti

sn c nh cho cng ty). Nhng do nh hng t cuc khng

hong ton cu, Vincom phi gnh chu s suy gim kh nng

ny xung mc m v c gng phc hi vo nm 2009, t

mc 15.83%.

o lng kh nng chi tr tt c cc khon n u n hn

cng 1 lc th ta s s dng t s tin mt trn tng n (C/TD)

Kh nng m Vincom c th chi tr c tc c cc khon n

nu chng n hn cng 1 lc rt thp, trung bnh ch khong 5%

m thi. T cho thy, lng tin m cng ty kim c qua cc

hot ng kinh doanh th t hn nhiu so vi cc khon n m

cng ty ang nm gi.

Kh nng to ratin mt

thomn nhu cu chi tiu vn, u t vo hng tn kho v

chi tr c tc ca 1 cng ty da vo vic tnh ton v xem xt t s

m bo dng tin.

Kh nng to ra tin mt ca Vincom p ng c nhu cu

ni trn ch khong 17%, cha k n vic kh nng ny lkhng c nm 2008, nm ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ton

cu.


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37/76

37

Vic s dng

n by ti

chnh qu cao

lm ROE cao

2008 2009 2008 2009

ROE 8.33% 43.48% 10.20% 16.80%

LNST /Doanh thu 52.15% 45.51% 32.50% 58.50%

Doanh thu/ Tng ti

sn3.97% 13.79% 18.00% 11.50%

ROA 2.07% 6.28% 5.9% 6.8%

Tng ti sn/ VCP 401.99% 692.49% 174.90% 248.30%

Li nhun sau thu/ doanh thu ca Vincom trong nm

2008 cao hn Kinh Bc 19.65% , tuy nhin t s doanh thu/ ti

sn ca Vincom li thp hn Kinh Bc kh nhiu (3.97% so vi

18%) dn n ROA ca Vincom ch bng mt na so vi Kinh

Bc. Tuy nhin, vi vic s dng mnh bo n by ti chnh

(401.99% so vi 174.99% ca Kinh Bc), nn t s ROE ca

Vincom thp khng ng k so vi Kinh Bc (8.33% so vi

10.2%). Trong nm 2009, mc d c s st gim trong t s li

nhun sau thu/ doanh thu( t 52.15% xung cn 45.51%) nhng

t s doanh thu/ tng ti sn c ci thin ng k( t 3.97% ln

13.79%), kt hp vi vic gia tng t s n by ti chnh (t

401.99% ln 692.49%) khin ROE tng t bin( t 8.33% ln43.48%, tng hn 5 ln) v ROE ca Vicom trong nm 2009

cng cao hn 2.5 ln so vi ROE ca Kinh Bc. Tuy nhin,

Vincom cng cn lu khi s dng n by ti chnh cao nh

vy, c th s dn n kh khn cng nh ri ro v ti chnh.


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38

PHN TCH KH NNG SINH LI

Phn tch

doanh thu

Doanh thu ca

VIC ch yu l

do c cu

doanh thu thot ng bn

hng

Kinh Bc VincomT ng doanh

thu1,409,584 2,413,264

Doanh thu

bn hng74.468% 81.816%

Doanh thuti chnh 25.441% 17.937%

Doanh thukhc 0.091% 0.247%

Doanh thu nm 2009 ca Vincom tng cao do pht sinhdoanh thu do chuyn nhng cn h Vincom Park Place, iu

to nn c cu doanh thu bn hng chim t l kh cao

81.816% trong tng doanh thu m Vincom t c. Trong khi

, doanh thu t hot ng ti chnh ch chim 17.937% v cn

li 0.247% l ca cc hot ng khc.

So snh vi Kinh Bc, ta thy mc d Kinh Bc t tng

doanh thu thp hn Vincom nhng doanh thu bn hng vn

chim t trng cao 74.468% trong tng doanh thu t c

ca Kinh Bc. Ngc li, Kinh Bc c cc hot ng ti chnh

nhiu hn Vincom nn to ra s lng doanh thu t c

cao hn 25.441%. B vo , Kinh Bc hn ch vo cc hot

ng khc nn c cu doanh thu khc ca Kinh Bc ch t

0.091%.T haiphn tch trn cho chng ta thy trong nm 2009,

Vincom thu v mc doanh thu cao hn Kinh Bc. Trong

Vincom c mc doanh thu t bn cc sn phm ca cng ty cao

hn. B li Vincom li t tp trung vo cc hot ng ti chnh

hn so vi i th cnh tranh l KinhBc.


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39

Phn tch

chi ph

Chi ph qun l

Doanh nghip v

bn hng chim

Mc d doanh s ca Vincom rt cao nhng chi ph qun l

doanh nghip v chi ph bn hng chim t trong nh - ch

khong 20% trong cu trc chi ph. iu ny cho thy s hiu

qu trong vic iu hnh doanh nghip v chin lc bn hng

hp l.

So vi Kinh Bc, i th cnh tranh khng h s dng chi

ph bnhng trong ccu chi phso vi doanh thu. iu cho

thy Kinh Bc khng cn ti bt kchi phbnhng no mvn

c tht mc doanh thu cao, c xem lim mnh ca

Kinh Bc. Nhng b vo, gi vn hng bn trn doanh thu

Doanhthu bnhng

Doanhthu tichnh

Doanh

thu khc

C cu doanh thuca cng ty Vincom

Doanh

thu bn

hng

Doanh

thu ti

chnh

Doanh

thu khc

C cu doanh thuca cng ty Kinh Bc


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41

PHN TCH TRIN VNG V BO CO DNG TIN D PHNG

BO CO KT QU HOT NG KINH DOANHINCOME STATEMENT

Ch tiu n v: Triu VND 2007 2008 2009

1. Doanh thu bn hng v cung cp dch v180,24

2 239,180 1,974,446

2. Cc khon gim tr 47 -

3. Doanh thu thun v bn hng v cung cp dch v180,19

5 239,180 1,974,446

4. Gi vn hng bn 52,133 60,711 537,311

5. Li nhun gp v bn hng v cung cp dch v128,06

2 178,469 1,437,135

6.Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh

262,31

2 413,039.00 432,862

7. Chi ph ti chnh-

22,192 (316,424.00) (378,120)

Trong :Chi ph li vay 21,211 (279,310.00) (244,415)

8. Chi ph bn hng-

13,482 (13,424.00) (12,327)

9. Chi ph qun l doanh nghip-

30,075 -120,119 (109,706)

10. Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh324,62

5 141,541 1,369,844

11. Thu nhp khc 8,706 23,605 5,956

12. Chi ph khc 109 -10,182 (3,654)

13. Li nhun khc 8,597 13,423 2,302

14. Phn li nhun/l t cng ty lin kt lin doanh 0 1802 12,057

15. Tng li nhun k ton trc thu333,22

2 156,768 1,384,202

16. Chi ph thu TNDN hin hnh 64,425 30,773 289,769

17. Chi ph thu TNDN hon li 0 (7,303)

Thu sut thu TNDN

17. Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip268,79

6 125,995 1,101,737

18.1 Li ch ca c ng thiu s -553 -1,270 203,095

18.2 Li nhun sau thu ca c ng ca Cng ty m 268,243 124,725 898,642

S CPLHBQ

EPS (VND/c phiu) 4,494 1091 5328

Li c bn trn c phiu iu chnh (VND/c phiu) 0


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45

nhu cu ch tng chm v tnh hnh phc hi

kinh t trong nc ln th gii r rng l vn

cha mnh thc y nhu cu tng song

song vi ngun cung.c tnh hin c khong 800.000 m2 mt

bng trung tm thng mi ti H Ni v hn

1.000.000 m2 ti TP H Ch Minh, nhng con

s ny s tng ng k trong 3-5 nm ti. Tuy

nhin, hu ht ngun cung mt bng trung tm

thng mi ny u nm khu vc ngoi trung

tm thnhph v cho n nay, vn cha nhn

thy bt k d n ln no khu vc trung tm

c th c xem l i th cnh tranh trc tip

vi VIC c TP H Ch Minh v H Ni trong

trung hn.

VIC ang di chuyn dn t khu vc trung

tm (Central Business District) ra bn ngoi vi

hng lot cc d n ang trin khai nh Royal

City, Viettronics hay Eco City u ta lcngoi

trung tm ca H Ni. Vic tin dn t ni

thnh ra bn ngoi l nhm mc ch tip cn

cc phn khc khch hng thp hn nhng

ng o hn so vi lng khch hng cao cp

hin ti ca VIC.


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46

Trn thc t, chng ti cho rng vic chuyn

hng ca VIC ra ngoi khu vc trung tm l mt

ng thi c hoch nh trc theo tm nhn

chin lc ca ban qun tr cng ty t nhng ngy

u ch khng phi l vic m rng khng ch ch.

Trong iu kin din tch t c hn, c bit l t

ti cc khu trung tm s dn c s dng ht, th

chin lc m rng phm vi theo kiu ly tm t bn

trong trung tm thnh ph hng ra bn ngoi s d

rng hn l lm ngc li. Bi v mt khi VIC hon

tt vic xy dng cc d n cao cp ti trung tm

thnh ph th uy tn v thng hiu ca cng ty s

gn lin vi nhng sn phm cht lng cao trongtm tr khch hng, t to iu kin thun li

cng ty xm nhp vo phn khc th trng thp hn

mt cch d dng v nhanh chng. in hnh l

thnh cng ca Royal City, 30% cn h ti Royal

City nhanh chng c bn ht trong giai on

u mc d ngi mua phi t cc vi mt t l cao

hn nhiu so vi thng l hin nay. Thnh cng ny

Vincom Center


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Royal City

khng ch l nh a th d n hp dn, thit k p

m quan trng hn l thng hiu cht lng cao

ca VIC c xy dng dn theo mt chin lc r

rng ngay t nhng ngy u thnh lp thu htc mt lng khch hng ng o. Thng

thng, vic m rng th trng t phn khc cao

sang phn khc thp hn lun d dng hn so vi

cch lm ngc li. Vi cch lm thng minh nh

vy, VIC v ang gt hi c nhng thnh cng

ng k, v chng ti cho rng y l mt li th

cnh tranh ln ca VIC so vi nhng cng ty khc

trong ngnh.

Vi th mnh trong lnh vc bt ng sn cao

cp, Vincom khng dng li vic xy dng

nhng ta nh ln nh trc y m nng tm pht

trin ln bng vic u t xy dng nhng khu th

phc hp ln Trong chin lc hin i ha v

nng cao nng lc qun l bng cng ngh quc t,

cng ty xc tin a vo ng dng phn mm

Yardi VoyagerTM qun l bt ng sn hng u th

gii. p dng cng ngh tin tin s gip Vincom

hon thin hn na cht lng dch v khch hng,

to cho cc d n quy m tm c trin khai trong

thi gian ti.Hin cc ta nh trung tm thng mi v vn

phng cho thu cao cp i vo hot ng ca

Cng ty c phn Vincom u t hiu sut cho thu

mc 90%-100%. c bit, TTTM Vincom Center

ti trung tm Qun 1, TP HCM d mi chnh thc i

vo hot ng t thng 5/2010, cho thu c

hn 90% din tch.Qu III/2010 cng ghi nhn


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48

nhng thnh cng mi ca Vincom khi 80% s cn

h ca 2 ta cn h u tin thuc d n Royal City

ti 72A Nguyn Tri, H Ni c ng k mua

ngay trong thng 7. Vincom bt u tin hnh k kthp ng mua bn cn h v nhn ng k mu

thit k ni tht ti ta nh R1 trong thng 10. Cng

trong thng 7, mt d n ln m Vincom tham gia

gp vn l Khu th sinh thi Vincom Village ti

Q.Long Bin, HN cng chnh thc c ph

duyt quy hoch 1/500 v hin nay Cng ty bt

u trin khai cng tc n b gii phng mt bng.

Tng kt hot ng 9 thng u nm 2010, Cng ty

CP Vincom t doanh thu 597.278.072.031 ng,

li nhun sau thu t 137.051.376.576 ng. Qua

, tng trng 198% doanh thu, v gim 11% li

nhun so vi 9 thng u nm 2009. So vi cng k

nm trc, tng doanh thu tng mnh do ng gp

ca hot ng cho thu Trung tm Thng mi ti

Vincom Park Place v Vincom Center mi khai

trng ti TP. H Ch Minh. Tuy nhin, li nhun 9

thng u nm gim 11% ch yu do mt s cc

khon chi ph tng ln lin quan n vic cng ty

thc hin u t mt lot cc d n mi. D kin,

doanh s v li nhun trong qu IV nm 2010 s ctng trng n tng, k vng vt k hoch v kt

qu nm 2009. C th, d n Vincom Financial

Towers vi hn 31.300 m2 din tch sn xy dng

c hon tt trong thng 10 v s ghi nhn li

nhun t vic chuyn nhng ton b ta nh vo

thng 12.c tnh, VCT v VPP c th mang v

dng tin thun t hotng kinh doanh khong 140

Vincom khng dng

li vic xy dng nhng

ta nh ln nh trc

y m nng tm pht

trin ln bng vic u t

xy dng nhng khu

th phc hp ln


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50

u hon thin v tng cng sut hot ng. T nm

2014 v 2015, cc d n i vo hot ng n nh nn

tc tng trng doanh thu s chm li, c th ni l i

vo bo ha. Tuy nhin, trong giai on ny, cng tycng khng ngng nghin cu v u t vo cc d n

mi nn chi ph do cng tng theo, c tnh gi vn

hng bn vn chim xp x 50% doanh thu trong cc nm

ti, cc chi ph khc chim 61% li nhun thun t hot

ng kinh doanh. C th, chi ph cho nm 2010 tng cao

hn cc nm khc do mc u t ca cng ty vo nm

ny rt ln, y l nm m cng ty rt vn vo cc d n

trong tng lai. ng thi, chng ti gi nh rng thu

sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip trong 5 nm ti l

khng i. T cc t s d phng trn, chng ti hnh

thnh bng d phng bo co kt qu hot ng kinh

doanh nh sau:

D PHNG BO CO KT QU HOT NG KINH DOANHINCOME STATEMENT

Ch tiu n v: Triu VND 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

1. Doanh thu bn hng v cung cp dch v 1,115,562 1,561,787 2,030,323 2,740,936 3,289,123 3,946,948

2. Cc khon gim tr3. Doanh thu thu n v bn hng v cung c p

dch v 1,115,562 1,561,787 2,030,323 2,740,936 3,289,123 3,946,948

4. Gi vn hng bn 604,077 796,511 1,035,465 1,397,877 1,677,453 2,012,9435. Li nhun gp v bn hng v cung cp dch

v 511,485 765,276 994,858 1,343,059 1,611,670 1,934,004

6.Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh 71,198 84,014 100,817 122,996 147,596 147,596

7. Chi ph ti chnh (290,100) (290,100) (290,100) (116,560) (116,560) (116,559)

Trong :Chi ph li vay (266,892) (266,892) (266,892) (107,235) (107,235) (107,234)

8. Chi ph bn hng (25,100) (35,140) (45,682) (61,671) (74,005) (88,806)

9. Chi ph qun l doanh nghip (33,467) (46,854) (60,910) (82,228) (98,674) (118,408)

10. Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh234,016 477,196 698,983 1,205,595 1,470,027 1,757,827

11. Thu nhp khc 234,016 334,037 489,288 843,917 1,029,019 1,230,479


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51

12. Chi ph khc (142,750) (291,089) (426,380) (735,413) (896,717) (1,072,274)

13. Li nhun khc 91,266 42,948 62,908 108,504 132,302 158,20414. Phn li nhun/l t cng ty lin kt lin

doanh 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057

15. Tng li nhun k ton trc thu 337,339 532,200 773,949 1,326,156 1,614,387 1,928,088

16. Chi ph thu TNDN hin hnh

17. Chi ph thu TNDN hon li

Thu sut thu TNDN 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

17. Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip 253,005 399,150 580,462 994,617 1,210,790 1,446,066

18.1 Li ch ca c ng thiu s 203,095 203,095 203,095 203,095 203,095 203,09518.2 Li nhun sau thu ca c ng ca Cng ty

m 456,100 602,245 783,557 1,197,712 1,413,885 1,649,161

-49.25% 32.04% 30.11% 52.86% 18.05% 16.64%

S CPLHBQ 269,953 269,953 269,953 269,953 269,953 269,953

EPS (VND/c phiu) 1,690 2,231 2,903 4,437 5,238 6,109Li c bn trn c phi u i u chnh (VND/c

phiu) 1,690 2,231 2,903 4,437 5,238 6,109

Nhn vo bng d phng trn, c th nhn thy l

doanh thu v li nhun sau thu ca cng ty nhng

nm ti l kh kh quan. Mt ln na chng ti nhc

li c s cho nhng d bo ny l do hin ti 3 d n

ang hot ng Vincom City Towers, Vincom ParkPlace ti H Ni, vVincom Center ti thnh ph H

Ch Minh mang v dng tin n nh cho cng ty

mi nm. D tnh, d n Vincom Center c th thu

v gn 1.000 t bt u t nm 2011, trong 75%

l t phn khc kinh doanh trung tm thng mi v

cho thuvn phng.Hot ng cho thu Trung tm

thng mi v Vn phng s to ngun thu v doanh

s n nh. Ngoi ra, cng ty ang tip tc y mnh

vic cho thu di hn cn h cao cp ti d n

Vincom Center; bn cn h ti d n Royal City

(sau khi hon thnh phn mng) nhm m bo

dng tin cho d n ng thi ti u t vo cc d

n mi.T nm 2011 tr i, doanh thu ca cng tycn c s ng gp ca cc d n nh Eco City v

Eco City


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54

D PHNG BNG CN I K TON

TI SN 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015FA. T I S N NG N HN(100=110+120+130+140+150) 8,085,223 9,059,689 10,109,818 11,455,571 12,707,928 14,139,044

I. Tin v cc khon tng ng tin 1,426,939 1,426,939 1,426,939 1,426,939 1,426,939 1,426,939

1. Tin 436,413 436,413 436,413 436,413 436,413 436,413

2. Cc khon tng ng tin 990,526 990,526 990,526 990,526 990,526 990,526

3. Tin tng thm - - - - - -

II. Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn 5,387,810 5,926,591 6,519,250 7,171,175 7,888,292 8,677,122

1. u t ngn hn 5,420,013.50 5,962,014.85 6,558,216.34 7,214,037.97 7,935,441.77 8,728,985.94

2. D phng gim gi chng khon u t ngn hn (*) (32,203.60) (35,423.96) (38,966.36) (42,862.99) (47,149.29) (51,864.22)

III. Cc khon phi thu ngn hn 1,086,954 1,521,735 1,978,256 2,670,646 3,204,775 3,845,730

1. Phi thukhch hng

2. Tr trc cho ngi bn

3. Phi thu ni b ngn hn

4. Phi thu theo tin k hoch hp ng xy dng

5. Cc khon phi thu khc

6. D phng cc khon phi thu ngn hn kh i (*)

IV. Hng tn kho 2,259 3,162 4,111 5,550 6,659 7,991

1. Hng tn kho

2. D phng gim gi hng tn kho (*)

V. Ti sn ngn hn khc 181,262 181,262 181,262 181,262 181,262 181,262

1. Chi ph tr trc ngn hn

2. Thu GTGT cn c khu tr

3. Thu v cc khon khc phi thu ca nh nc

5. Ti sn ngn hn khc

B. TI SN DI HN(200=210+220+240+250+260+270) 5,354,881 7,063,413 8,681,093 11,125,936 10,510,699 11,262,945

I. Cc khon phi thu di hn - - - - - -

1. Phi thu di hn ca khch hng

2. Vn kinh doanh cc n v trc thuc

3. Phi thu di hn ni b

4. Phi thu di hn khc

5. D phng phi thu di hn kh i (*)

II. Ti sn c nh 2,912,032 4,451,773 5,883,785 8,124,393 7,284,497 7,789,619

1. Ti sn c nh hu hnh 1,524,742 2,038,367 2,541,385 3,335,746 3,839,361 4,443,700

-Nguyn gi 1,595,110 2,233,154 2,903,100 3,919,185 4,703,023 5,643,627

- Gi tr hao mn ly k (*) (70,368) (194,787) (361,715) (583,440) (863,661) (1,199,927)

2. Ti sn c nh thu ti chnh - - - - - -

-Nguyn gi - - - - - -

- Gi tr hao mn ly k (*) - - - - - -

3. Ti sn c nh v hnh 48,616 70,726 93,883 129,056 156,013 188,362

-Nguyn gi 55,778 78,089 101,516 137,047 164,456 197,347


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- Gi tr hao mn ly k (*) (7,163) (7,363) (7,633) (7,991) (8,443) (8,986)

4. Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang 1,338,674 2,342,680 3,248,517 4,659,591 3,289,123 3,157,558

III. Bt ng sn u t 530,434 530,434 530,434 530,434 530,434 530,434

-Nguyn gi 600,014 600,014 600,014 600,014 600,014 600,014

- Gi tr hao mn ly k (*) (69,580) (69,580) (69,580) (69,580) (69,580) (69,580)

IV. Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn 1,591,396 1,750,536 1,925,590 2,118,149 2,329,963 2,562,960

1. u t vo cng ty con - - - - - -

2. u t vo cng ty lin kt, lin doanh 942,625.20 1,036,887.72 1,140,576.49 1,254,634.14 1,380,097.56 1,518,107.31

3. u t di hn khc 764,315.20 840,746.72 924,821.39 1,017,303.53 1,119,033.88 1,230,937.27

4. D phng gim gi chng khon u t di hn (*) (115,544) (127,098) (139,808) (153,789) (169,168) (186,085)

V. Li th thng mi 96,497.50 106,147.25 116,761.98 128,438.17 141,281.99 155,410.19

VI. Ti sn di hn khc 224,522 224,522 224,522 224,522 224,522 224,522

1. Chi ph tr trc di hn

2. Ti sn thu thu nhp hon li

3. Ti sn di hn khc 224,522

TNG CNG TI SN (270=100+200) 13,440,105 16,123,102 18,790,910 22,581,507 23,218,626 25,401,989

NGUN VN 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

A. N PHI TR (300=210+330) 10,924,495 13,604,129 16,246,964 19,810,301 20,222,142 20,838,802

I. N ngn hn 1,506,008.69 2,186,501.50 2,842,451.95 3,700,263.34 4,440,316.01 5,328,379.21

1. Vay v n ngn hn 725,115 1,093,251 1,421,226 1,781,608 2,137,930 2,565,516

2. Phi tr ngi bn

3. Ngi mua tr tin trc

4. Thu v cc khon phi np Nh nc

5. Phi tr cng nhn vin

6. Chi ph phi tr

7. Phi tr ni b

8. Phi tr theo tin k hoch hp ng xy dng

9. Cc khon phi tr, phi np khc

10. D phng phi tr ngn hn

II. N di hn 9,418,487 11,417,627 13,404,512 16,110,037 15,781,826 15,510,422

1. Phi tr di hn ngi bn

2. Phi tr di hn ni b

3. Phi tr di hn khc

4. Vay v n di hn 9,014,392 9,014,392 9,014,392 9,014,392 9,014,392 9,014,392

N pht hnh thm 344,802 2,324,943 4,288,258 6,939,943 6,583,629 6,281,639

5. Thu thu nhp hon li phi tr

6. D phng tr cp mt vic lm7. D phng phi tr di hn


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( Theo ngun t VIC)CC T S D PHNG 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

BNG CN I K TON

Ti sn lu ng

1 Vng quay cc khon phi thu ngn hn 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03

2 Vng quay hng tn kho 493.90 493.90 493.90 493.90 493.90 493.90

3 Ti sn lu ng khc (tng trng)

Ti sn di hn

1 Vng quay ti sn c nh hu hnh (tnh theo nguyn gi) 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70

2 T l khu hao TSC hu hnh hng nm 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%

3 Vng quay ti sn c nh v hnh (tnh theo nguyn gi) 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00

4 T l khu hao TSC v hnh 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%

5 Xy dng c bn d dang/ Doanh thu 120.0% 150.0% 160.0% 170.0% 100.0% 80.0%

6 Ti sn di hn khc(tng trng)

N ngn hn

1 Vay v n ngn hn/ Doanh thu thun 65.0% 70.0% 70.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0%

2Cc khon phi tr ng n hn (tr n ng n hn)/ Doanh thuthun 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0%

N di hn

1Cc khon phi tr di hn (tr n di hn)/ Doanh thuthun 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%

2 Vay v n di hn

Vn ch s hu

1 T l phn phi LNST cho qu khen thng v phc li 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

B. VN CHS HU (400=410+430) 2,515,609 2,518,973 2,543,946 2,771,206 2,996,485 4,563,188

I. Vn ch s hu 2,041,095 2,014,346 2,000,142 2,219,683 2,444,962 4,011,665

1. Vn u t ca ch s hu 1,996,272 1,996,272 1,996,272 1,996,272 1,996,272 1,996,272

2. Thng d vn c phn 773,355 773,355 773,355 773,355 773,355 773,355

3. Vn khc ca ch s hu - - - - - -

4. C phiu qu (1,898,165) (1,898,165) (1,898,165) (1,898,165) (1,898,165) (1,898,165)

5. Chnh lch nh gi li ti sn - - - - - -

6. Chnh lch t gi hi oi (11,707) (11,707) (11,707) (11,707) (11,707) (11,707)

7. Qu u t pht trin 1,763 1,763 1,763 1,763 1,763 1,763

8. Qu d phng ti chnh 24,568 54,680 93,858 153,744 224,438 306,896

9. Qu khc thuc vn ch s hu - - - - - -

10. Li nhun sau thu cha phn phi 1,155,009 1,098,148 1,044,766 1,204,421 1,359,006 2,843,251

11. Ngun vn u t XDCB - - - - - -

II. Ngun kinh ph v qu khc 22,805 52,917 92,095 99,814 99,814 99,814

1. Qu khen thng, phc li 22,805 52,917 92,095 99,814 99,814 99,814

2. Ngun kinh ph - - - - - -

3. Ngun kinh ph hnh thnh TSC - - - - - -

C. LI CH CA C NG THIU S 451,709 451,709 451,709 451,709 451,709 451,709

TNG CNG NGUN VN(440=300+400+500) 13,440,105 16,123,102 18,790,910 22,581,507 23,218,626 25,401,989


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2 Chi qu khen thng phc li (chi khen thng/LNST) 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

3 Qu u t v pht trin(mc tng so vi LNST)

4 Qu d phng ti chnh(mc tng so vi LNST)

5 T l phn phi LNST cho qu d phng ti chnh 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

6 T l phn phi cho qu u t pht trin 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

7 Chi tr c tc bng tin mt (1000 VN) 1,500 2,300 3,000 3,800 4,600 5,600

8 T l chi tr c tc 0.28 1.36 1.34 1.31 1.04 1.07

Qua phn tch cc phn trn, chng ti cp n khuynh hng ch trng vo

u t ti chnh kh ln ca Vincom, do , trong nhng nm ti, chng ti gi nh

rng cng ty tip tc gia tng u t hng nm thm 10%. Chng ti cng gi nh

rng tin v cc khon tng ng tin khng i qua cc nm.

T nhng d phng bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh v bng cn i k ton,

chng ti thit lp c d phng dng tin ca cng ty Vincom nh sau:

D PH NGD NG TI NTriu VND 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Li nhun sau thu 456,100 602,245 783,557 1,197,712 1,413,885 1,649,161

+ Khu hao 54,543 124,619 167,198 222,082 280,674 336,809

+ Chi ph li vay sau thu 200,169 200,169 200,169 80,426 80,426 80,426

Dng tin trc thay i vn lu ng 710,812 927,034 1,150,923 1,500,221 1,774,985 2,066,395

Thay i vn lu ng (459,611) (123,328) (129,494) (196,399) (151,508) (181,810)

+ Thay i tn kho 12,144 (903) (949) (1,439) (1,110) (1,332)

+ Thay i cc khon phi thu (79,161) (434,782) (456,521) (692,390) (534,129) (640,955)

+ Thay i cc khon phi tr (443,712) 312,357 327,975 497,429 383,731 460,477

+ Thay i ti sn ngn hn khc 51,117 - - - - -

Chi ph u t thun 1,384,305 (1,823,501) (1,774,263) (2,655,249) 347,407 (1,074,927)

+ u t ti sn c nh (1,059,148) (660,355) (693,373) (1,051,616) (811,246) (973,496)

+ Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang 2,537,009 (1,004,006) (905,836) (1,411,074) 1,370,468 131,565

+ Bt ng sn u t - - - - - -

+ u t ti chnh di hn (144,672) (159,140) (175,054) (192,559) (211,815) (232,996)

+ ti sn di hn khc 51,117 - - - - -

Dng tin t do to ra cho c ng (FCFE) 1,498,453 (1,000,796) (729,263) (1,297,588) 1,998,987 840,245

Chi ph li vay sau thu (200,169) (200,169) (200,169) (80,426) (80,426) (80,426)

Vay mi/(tr n vay) 827,629 2,348,277 2,291,289 3,012,067 8 125,597

Ndi hn (khng tnh n vay ngn hng) (137,052) 18,999 23,570 53,840 28,102 30,586

Dng tin t do to ra cho cng ty (FCFF) 1 ,988,862 1,166,311 1,385,428 1,687,894 1,946,670 916,001


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(443,712) 312,357 327,975 497,429 383,731 460,477

+ Thay i ti sn ngn hn khc 51,117 - - - - -

Chi ph u t thun 1,384,305 (1,823,501) (1,774,263) (2,655,249) 347,407 (1,074,927)

+ u t ti sn c nh (1,059,148) (660,355) (693,373) (1,051,616) (811,246) (973,496)

+ Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang 2,537,009 (1,004,006) (905,836) (1,411,074) 1,370,468 131,565

+ Bt ng sn u t - - - - - -

+ u t ti chnh di hn (144,672) (159,140) (175,054) (192,559) (211,815) (232,996)

+ ti sn di hn khc 51,117 - - - - -

Dng tin t do to ra cho c ng (FCFE) 1,498,453 (1,000,796) (729,263) (1,297,588) 1,998,987 840,245

Chi ph li vay sau thu (200,169) (200,169) (200,169) (80,426) (80,426) (80,426)

Vay mi/(tr n vay) 827,629 2,348,277 2,291,289 3,012,067 8 125,597

N di hn (khng tnh n vay ngn hng) (137,052) 18,999 23,570 53,840 28,102 30,586

Dng tin t do to ra cho cng ty (FCFF) 1 ,988,862 1,166,311 1,385,428 1,687,894 1,946,670 916,001

TTTM/vn phng i

hi vn u t ban

u rt ln v ch u

t khng th huy ng

vn t ngi

mua/khch hng. V

th, cng ty chuyn

hng sang phn khc

nh dn c nhm

gim bt cc yu cu

v vn u t ban ubng cch thu ht

khch mua nh chia s

chi ph vi cng ty

Vic tham gia vo nhiu phn khc vi nhng c im

khc nhau v dng tin c th gip VIC tn dng dng tin

t cc d n ang hot ng ti tr cho vic xy dng

cc d n khc ang trin khai. Theo kt qu d bo dng

tin ca chng ti, Vincom Center s mang li ngun tin

ln ti tr cho vic xy dng 3 d n Eden A, Eco City

v Viettronics. Ngoi ra, VIC cng c th dng Vincom

Center lm ti sn th chp vay thm vn t ngn hng

b sung ngun ti lc. Qu trnh ny c th s c lp

li vi Eden A mt khi d n bt u i vo hot ng v

m hnh ny nhn chung c th c p dng rng ri i

vi tt c cc d n vn phng/TTTM nhm tn dngngun tin n nh t cc d n ny. Theo , VIC to

cho mnh mt c ch huy ng vn hiu qu v bt c khi

no thi c n th cng ty sn sng ngun ti chnh

trin khai d n.

Tuy nhin, bt li ca cc d n TTTM/vn phng l

chng i hi vn u t ban u rt ln v ch u t

khng th huy ng vn t ngi mua/khch hng. V th,


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cng ty ang chuyn hng sang phn khc nh dn c

nhm gim bt cc yu cu v vn u t ban u bng

cch thu ht khch mua nh chia s chi ph vi cng ty. Cc

d n nh Royal City v Eco City l in hnh ca hnhthc ny. Nh a th thun li, thng hiu uy tn v kh

nng thng lng tt, Royal city thu ht ng o

ngi mua ngay c khi cng ty t ra nhng iu kin

nghim ngt lin quan n qu trnh t cc. Chng ti tnh

rng i vi d n Royal City th t nay cho n khi d n

hon thnh VIC s khng cn phi u t thm vn nh tn

dng c ngun vn gp ca khch hng.

Nhng ri ro cn xem xt: kh nng thanh ton v

xung t li ch. Trong m hnh d phng, chng ti

gi nh VIC s c th thu hi tt c cc khon vay ca cc

c ng ln c gi tr khong 3.580 t ng, tng ng

13% vn ch s hu. Nu s tin ny khng c thu hi

chc chn s lm nh hngn kt qu d phng cng ty.

Tuy nhin, chng ti ngh rng ri ro ny thp v VIC

cam kt s gim v thu hi tt c cc khon vay tp

trung vo hot ng kinh doanh chnh k t t pht hnh

triphiu quc t nm 2009. Mt khc, trong thi gian gn

y tnh minh bch trong hot ng kinh doanh ca VIC

ngy cng c nng cao vi nhiu hot ng quan h vi

cc nh u t v chun b nim yt ti Singapore. V vy,theo quan im ca chng ti, ri ro lin quan n hot

ng qun tr doanh nghip vn c tn ti nhng ang gim

dn.

Mt ri ro ng ch hn ca VIC l kh nng thanh

ton. T s N/Vn ch s hu hin nay ca VIC gn

446% theo s liu cui nm 2009, mc cao nht trong

ngnh. Mc d cng ty c dng tin n nh t cc d n


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ang hot ng cng mi quan h tt vi cc bn cho vay,

nhng chng ti lo ngi rng nu tnh hnh th trng din

bin xu ngoi d kin VIC s gp tr ngi ln v thanh

ton. Trn thc t, chng ti c tnh h s kh nng tr chili vay ca VIC ch t 85% trong nm 2010, trc khi c

th tng ln 129% v 182% vo nm 2011 v 2012. Mt

khc, VIC s phi i mt vi p lc thanh ton trong nm

2012 khi mt s khon n n hn.Chng ti c tnh cng

ty s phi tr 4.322 t ng n n hn trong nm ny trong

khi dng tin t hot ng kinh doanh ch t khong ng

774 t.Tuy nhin, VIC c th s o n vi ngn hng

chi tr cho cc khon vay ny v bt u t nm 2013 dng

tin c th tng ln ng k.

nh gi bng cc m hnh FCFE, FCFF, RE, DDM, P/E, P/B, P/S da theo

cc bo co ti chnh d phng tng hp

- M hnh chit khu dng tin ca cng ty FCFE

Gi nhTim nng tng trng di hn 5.00%

Li sut chit khu (WACC)

Vn CSH (E) - Bnh qun 2,818,545N(D) - Bnh qun 15,262,058E/(D+E) 15.59%

D/(D+E) 84.41%

Chi ph n (Rd) 10.50%Thu sut 25.0%Rd*(1-t) 7.88%

Chi ph vn (Re) 14.00%WACC=E/(D+E)* Re+ D/(D+E)*Rd(1-t) 8.83%

NH GI


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Gi nh

Gi nh tng trng DDM di hn 8%T sut sinh li mong i 14%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

C tc (D) 1,500 2,300 3,000 3,800 4,600 5,600 5,000Tng trng c tc (g) 53% 30% 27% 21% 22%Hin gi giai on chitit 14,801

Hin gi gi tr thngxuyn (FV) 52,352Gi tr hin ti (PV) 67,153

M HNH CHIT KHU C TC DDM


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2,009.00 2010F 2011F 2012F 2014F 2014F 2015F

Li nhun trc thu (t ng) 1,384 337 532 774 1,326 1,614 1,928

Tc tng tr ng LNTT -75.6% 57.8% 45.4% 71.3% 21.7% 19.4%

Li nhun sau thu (t ng) 1,038 253 399 580 995 1,211 1,446

S lng c phi u ( triu cphiu) 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0

EPS (ng/c phiu ) 3,846 937 1,479 2,150 3,684 4,485 5,357

DPS (ng/c phiu ) 1,500 2,300 3,000 3,800 4,600 5,600 5,000

53.3% 30.4% 26.7% 21.1% 21.7% -10.7%

BVS (ng/c phiu ) 53,022 51,659 50,137 48,488 47,572 46,457 46,814

ROCE 1.8% 2.9% 4.3% 7.6% 9.4% 11.5%

T sut sinh li yu cu 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%

RE (thu nhp co n li ) (6,486) (5,754) (4,869) (3,104) (2,175) (1,147)

Hs chuy n i

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

2.00

RE sau khi quy i (6,486) (5,754) (4,869) (3,104) (2,175) (2,295)

Tng trng RE -11% -15% -36% -30% 6%

Sut chiu khu 1.14 1.30 1.48 1.69 1.93 1.93

Hin gi RE (5,689) (4,427) (3,286) (1,838) (1,130) (1,192)

Tng hin gi RE (16,370)

Gi tr thng xuyn (10,560)

Gi tr vn c phn 26,091

CC M HNH P/E, P/BV, P/S

P/E, P/BV, P/S MODELS

2,009.00 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

EPS 5,328 1,690 2,231 2,903 4,437 5,238 6,109

BV 53,022 52,411 51,642 50,745 50,581 50,219 51,328

Sale per Share 7,314 4,132 5,785 7,521 10,153 12,184 14,621

P0/E0 23 23 23 23 23 24

P/BV 3.36 3.36 3.36 3.36 3.36 3.36

P/S 4.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 6.00

Gi c phiu (P/E) 38,859.7 51,311 66,759 102,045 120,463 146,618

Gi c phiu (P/BV) 175,893 173,312 170,301 169,753 168,536 172,258

Cc gi nhTc tng trng dihn 8.0%T sut sinh li yu cu 14.0%

M HNH RESIDUAL INCOME


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Gi c phiu (P/S) 18,596 28,927 37,605 50,767 60,920 87,725

PHN TCH NHY

P0/E0 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

21 35,481 46,849 60,954 93,172 109,988 128,290

22 37,170 49,080 63,856 97,608 115,225 134,399

23 38,860 51,311 66,759 102,045 120,463 140,508

24 40,549 53,542 69,662 106,482 125,700 146,618

25 42,239 55,773 72,564 110,918 130,938 152,727

P/BV 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

3.0 154,929 152,656 150,003 149,520 148,449 151,727

3.2 165,411 162,984 160,152 159,636 158,492 161,993

3.4 175,893 173,312 170,301 169,753 168,536 172,258

3.6 186,376 183,641 180,450 179,869 178,580 182,524

3.8 196,858 193,969 190,598 189,985 188,624 192,789

P/S 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

4.1 76,243 118,601 154,181 208,144 249,773 359,673

4.3 79,962 124,386 161,702 218,298 261,957 377,218

4.5 83,682 130,171 169,223 228,451 274,141 394,763

4.7 87,401 135,957 176,744 238,604 286,325 412,308

4.9 91,120 141,742 184,265 248,758 298,509 429,853

TNG HP KT QU

TT

M hnhinh gi Gi

1 FCFE 24,801.18

2 FCFF 90,216.44

3 RE 26,091.30

4 DDM 67,153.17

52,065.52

5 P/E 38,859.67

6 P/B 175,893.43

7 P/S 18,595.93

Trunh bnh 77,783.01Tung bnh gi 63,087.30

Qua rt nhiu phng php trn, gi trung bnh ca c phiu VIC khong trn

di 70000VND. Trong khi , trn th trng chng khon hin nay, gi tham chiu


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ca c phiu VIC l 90000VND, chng ti tm kt lun rng c phiu VIC c th

ang c th trngnh gi cao.

nh gi theo phng php tng cc gi tr thnh phn (SOTP) trnc s m hnh chit khu dng tin thun - Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)

Vi phng php SOTP, chng ti nh gi VIC bng

cch tng hp kt qu nh gi ca tng d n hay cc cng

ty con. nh gi cc cng ty con, chng ti p dng m

hnh FCFF xc nh gi tr cng ty da trn dng tin

thun m d n/cng ty mang v. Chng ti nh gi tng

d n ring bit ch khng p dng m hnh nh gi FCFF

cho dng tin hp nht ca ton cng ty v ri ro ca tng

cng ty con rt khc nhau ty thuc vo tng phn khc sn

phm, quy m ca d n v tin xy dng hin ti. Chng

ti chn phng php chit khu dng tin (Discounted Cash

Flow) thay v phng php gi tr ti sn rng (Net Asset

Value) hay cc phng php khc v nhiu d n ca VIC cdng tin v tn, ch khng kt thc vo mt nm nht nh

nh a s cc cng ty BS khc. Trong nhng trng hp

ny, phng php chit khu dng tin thng cho gi tr

chnh xc hn nhng phng php khc v gip cc c ng

c ci nhn r rng hn v dng tin thun, hay chnh xc

hn l mc li nhun tim nng m h c th nhn c.

Chng ti cng u tin cho m hnh FCFF hn FCFE (Free

Cash Flow to Equity) do thiu thng tin chi tit lin quan n

n ca tng d n/cng ty con.

Vincom City

Towers v Vincom

Park Place

Gi nh ring cho tng d n v d bo dng tin Vincom

City Towers v Vincom Park Place . Hai d n ny u

hot ng ht cng sut. Ti VCT, t l cho thu i vi din

tch mt bng kinh doanh trung tm thng mi t 98% v


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Vincom Financial

Tower

Ta lc trn ng Nguyn Cng Tr trong khu ph ti

chnh ca qun 1 TP H Ch Minh, Vincom Financial Tower

c v tr thch hp xy dng cao c vn phng. Tuy nhin,

nh chng ti cp trn, phn khc ny ang tri quagiai on kh khn khi rtnhiu cao c vn phng sp i vo

hot ng trong khi nhu cu gim do b nh hng ca suy

thoi kinh t. Ngoi ra, Vincom Financial Tower cn gp

phi s cnh tranh rt ln t cao c cao nht thnh ph l

Financial Tower do Bitexco xy dng, ch cch Vincom

Financial Tower mt vi khu ph. Financial Tower ca

Bitexco d kin s cung cp mt lng ln mt bng vn

phng khi hon thnh, d kin l trong thng 11/2010 v

cng l lc Vincom Tower hon thnh. C th v l do ny

m VIC bt u thng lng vi mt s i tc

chuyn nhng ton b d n khi hon tt. Chng ti cho

rng y l mt quyt nh sng sut v VIC cn c nhiu d

n khc c kh nng sinh li cao hn VFT u t. Nu

chuyn nhng ton b d n v nhn tin ngay, VIC c th

tnghiu qu ti chnh trong nhng nm ti thay v vn th

ng ch th trng cho thu vn phng hi phc.

Gi tri VIC thu c t VFT l 447 t, v y cng l

mc gi m chng ti s dng trong m hnh SOTP. Trn

thc t, mc gi tr ny tng ng vi gibn khong 48

triu ng/m2 GFA, gn bng gi chuyn nhng gn yca cao c AB Tower gc ng Nguyn Th Ngha v

Phm Hng Thi, Qun 1. Bi v VIC ang trong nhng

bc thng lng cui cng vi i tc hon tt qu

trnh chuyn nhng, chng ti c tnh cng ty c th hon

tt giao dch ny va ghi nhn li nhun 572 t trong nm

nay.


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Vincom Center

Vincom Center (VC) Ta lc ngay khu trung tm thnh

ph v bao bc bi ng L Thnh Tn, ng Khi v L

T Trng, Vincom Center l mta im l tng xydng khu cao c phc hp, c bit l trung tm thng

mi. Ch trong vng mt thng k t khi khnh thnh vo

thng 05/2010, VC tng t l cho thu din tch kinh

doanh bn l ln gn 96% mc d gi thu ti y thuc

hng cao nht TP H Ch Minh hin nay, t 35-250

USD/m2/thng. Chng ti gi nh gi thu trung bnh l

77USD/m2/thng trong m hnh tnh ton.

Din tch dnh cho kinh doanh bn l ca VIC vn cn

2 tng trng d phng cho nhng i tng thu c

bit, c th l rp chiu phim.Chng ti k vng khu vc

ny s c s dng bt u t nm 2011.Tuy nhin, khu

vc vn phng cho thu khng thc s si ng nh khu

TTTM.Chng ti cha cp nht thng tin mi nht v t l


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cho thu ca khu vc ny nhng chng ti gi nh cng ty

c th cho thu 20% trong na cui nm nay. K t nm

2011, chng ti k vng s phc hi mnh m ca c nn

kinh t trong nc ln quc t c th gip VIC t c tl cho thu 60% i vi din tch dnh cho vn phng v

dn dn s tng ln90% trong nm cui 2017.

Ngoi ra Vincom Center hin cn c khong 70 cn h

cao cp ang c cho bn. Mc d th trng cn h

ang kh m m nhng c thng tin cho bit VIC bn

c mt s cn h ti y. Chng ti k vng cng ty c

th bn 10%tng s cn h trong na cui nm 2010 v s

bn ht vo nm 2013. Cn c trn nhng so snh ca

chng ti vi cc khu cn h cao cp khc trong thnh ph

nh Avalon, Sailing Tower, Lancaster th gi c th bn

c ti Vincom Center l khong 7.000 USD/m2.

.

Eden A

Eden A nm bn cnh Vincom Center v cng ngay khu trung tm thnh ph vi v

tr thun li hn c Vincom Center. VIC bt u gii phng mt bng ca khu vc

ny v cng ty hy vng c th hon thnh vic ny vo cui nm nay. D n ny c


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thit k xy dng mt khch sn 5 sao cng vi mt trung tm thng mi. Vi

GFA c tnh khong 32.025 m2, khch sn ny s cung cp khong 578 phng v c

l l khch sn 5 sao ln nht ti thnh ph H Ch Minh.

Cc gi nh trong m hnh nh gi cho Eden A tng i ging vi VincomCenter phn trung tm thng mi.Ring phn khch sn, chng ti ngh rng VIC

c th c 2 la chn l thu nh iu hnh chuyn nghip qun l khch sn ny

hoc l bn hn c khch sn. Chng ti thin v phng n 2 nhiu hn v hin ti

VIC cn kh nhiu d n trong danh mc cha trin khai. Vic bn khch sn ny s

gip VIC thu v lng tin cn thit trin khai cc d n cn li ny, t lm cho

gi tr cng ty tng cao hn. D vy, chng ti vn tnh ton gi tr c ng ty theo

phng php dng tin v thiu cc thng tin ng tin cy lm c s cho phng

php nh gi so snh. Tt nhin VIC s la chn phng php ti u hn gia 2 cch

ny, v nu cng ty quyt nh bn, gi tr bn c nhiu kh nng s cao hn mc

gi m chng ti ang tnh ton y.

Gi nh rng ngoi doanh thu t cho thu phng, VIC c th t c mc 30%

doanh thu b sung t cc dch v i km khc nh n ung, dch v phng. Ph qun

l dnh cho nh iu hnh l 3% v ph khen thng l 20% li nhun gp theo thng

l hin nay.

Tng chi ph xy dng ca Eden A cng tng i ging vi Vincom Center, d

kin khong 4.200 t ng. V y l mt d n mi va c khi ng trong thi

gian gn y nn chng ti p dng t l chit khu 20% (WACC) b p ri ro.


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Royal City

Nm v pha Ty Nam ca H Ni, tip gip vi ng

Nguyn Tri, sng T Lch v khu vc dn c ca phng

Thng nh, Royal City l im hn ca nhiu trc ng

giao thng huyt mch. V tr chin lc ca d n ny rtthun li di chuyn n khu trung tm hin nay qun

Hon Kim v n cc khu vc mi pha Ty H Ni.

Royal City c tng din tch t 12ha v c tnh s cung

cp 4.700 cn h cho th trng. Trong thng 6/2010, VIC

khi ng giai on u tin m bn 1.400 cn h, tng

ng 30% tng quy m d n v cc cn h ny nhanh

chng c bn ht trong mt thi gian ngn.

Chng ti c tnh VIC s tip tc bn thm 30% s cn

h trong nm 2011, 30% trong nm 2012 v 10% cn li vo

nm 2013 khi d n d kin s hon tt. Chng ti cha c

thng tin chc chn v vic cng ty s ghi nhn doanh thu t

vic bn cn h nh th no, nhng c th doanh thu ny ch

c ghi nhn sau khi bn ht vo nm 2013 khi giao nh v

cng ty p dngchun mc k ton IFRS t nm 2010.


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quy m ca Viettronicsnh hn nhiu so vi Royal City v Eco

City. Chng ti c tnh VIC s phi u t tng cng 1.855 t

ng cho d n ny v NPV d n t khong 1.461 t ng.

Kt qu nh gi SOTP cho ra gi mc tiu l 70.000 ngKt qu nh gi tng hp cho thy gi tr ton cng ty VIC s khong 25.305 t

ng. Khi tnh gi tr vn ch s hu, chng ti gi s VIC c th s dng ht tt c

lng tin mt hin c v thu hi ht cc khon vay khong 3.580 t ng tnh n

cui nm2009 ca cc c ng ln. N hin ti ca VIC l 8.736 t ng, trong

1.274 t ng l t tri phiu chuyn i vi gi 60.000 ng/c phiu. Theo m hnh

nh gi, gi mc tiu ca VIC s l 70.000 ng/c phiu v s khng c nhiu khc

bit nhiu gia gi trc v sau khi pha long (t chuyn i tri phiu).


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Mt ln na, chng ti thy rng kt qu nh gi bng nhiu phng php trn

u cho ra mt mc gi cho c phiu VIC l xp x 70000VND trong khi gi th

trng ca c phiu VIC la 90000VND.iu ny chng t c phiu ca cng tyc th

ang c th trng nh gi cao.

Tuy nhin, chng ti cho rng kt qu nh gi cn c th tng ln .Chng ti

thn trng trong qu trnh nh gi v k vng gi mc tiu s cn tng thm v mt s

l do. Trc tin, chng ti cha tnh ton n doanh thu v li nhun t vic cho thu

bi u xe ca tng d n. Mc d khon thu ny khc nhau gia cc d n nhng

chng ti c tnh chng c th ng gp n 10% doanh thu. Ngoi ra, chng ti cho

rng VIC c kh nng tip tc lm tng gi tr cho cc c ng thng qua vic pht

trin nhiu d n hn trong tng lai nh i ng qun l c nng lc cao, thng

hiu mnh, v tim lc ti chnh vng vng. Hin VIC ang c 3 d n tim nng dnh s trin khai l Vincom Hi Phng Plaza, Vincom Village v Long Bin. Ngoi

ra, cng ty cn d nh cng b thm mt s d n vo cui nm nay. Vincom Village

v Long Bin l 2 d n rt ln nm qun Long Bin, H Ni, bn kia sng Hng.

Tng din tch ca hai d n ny chim hn 670ha, nm trn mt khu t ln thch

hp pht trin thnh khu th mi. Vi k hoch m rng ra khi khu vc trung

tm v chuyn hng sang phn khc khch hng thp hn th hai d n ny chnh l

minh chng cho bc i chin lc ca VIC. Tuy nhin, v cc d n qu ln v cha


76/76

th trin khai ngay trong tng lai gn nn chng ti cha a cc d n ny vo m

hnh nh gi. Chng ti s xem xt b sung thm gi tr ca d n ny vo m hnh

nh gi khi no c thm thng tin cho thy VIC chc chn s thc hin cc d n v

t l thnh cng cao.

Phan Tich Cong Ty Vincom

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