Petroquimica enfoque global
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Transcript of Petroquimica enfoque global
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Indian PetrochemIndian Petrochem -- 20122012
November 8, 2012November 8, 2012
Mumbai, IndiaMumbai, India
Industry OverviewIndustry Overview
an ay armaManaging DirectorChemical Consulting, IHS ChemicalDubai, UAEsan ay.s arma s.com
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
Global PetrochemicalIndustry overview
North America Industry -Revival
MDE Industry Impact ones o e n us ry
China Industr Opportunities and Challenges
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
onc us ons
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Current State of the Global IndustryCurrent State of the Global Industry
Global Markets are focusing on
rapidly growing economies and
new supply
Production ex ansion mostl in the
Middle East or China, but Shale Oil
and Gas is putting the U.S. and
Canada back in play
Large cost position differences have
inflated profits for some
The rest are forced (by the market)
to maintain strict price, production
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
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Economy: Slower Pace of Economic GrowthEconomy: Slower Pace of Economic Growth
Quarterly Annualized ValueConstant Trillions 2005 U.S. Dollars
Quarterly Annualized ValueConstant Trillions 2005 U.S. Dollars
Trillions Global Economy was
o e grow curve or
seven quarters $58$58
Peak Q3 2008
Expanding again, but
pace has slowed to
3.0% er ear due to
$54$54
Back to
Previous Peak
Q2 2010
EU and inflation
Taking longer than $48$48
$50$50
Trough Q1 2009
Source: IHS Global Insight
expected to recover totrend line performance
$44$44
$46$46-
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
4
0505 0606 0707 0808 0909 1010 1111 1212 1313 1414
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Demand: Shift in Demand Distribution is evidentDemand: Shift in Demand Distribution is evident
Economic Expansion:Basic demand to fast Distribution of Global Demand
economies is evident80%
90%
100%
W. Europe
Middle EastAll Others
nves men ec s ons:Two Options: Produce in
demand centers or 50%
60% N. America
everage a c ear cos
advantage
20%
30%
Sustainability includes a
systematic addition of
0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
en er o n us ry as s e o s aen er o n us ry as s e o s aper ormance pro uc s
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Capacity: Resources Attract CapacityCapacity: Resources Attract Capacity
Cumulative Capacity GrowthCumulative Capacity Growth
Mill ion Metric TonsMill ion Metric Tons
Capacity growth
indicates demand ull
700700 Middle East (Hydrocarbon)and/or relative costposition
500500
Developed Countries
on local labor; supports
diversified investment
China
200200
300300 International Markets
expand as target for
. mer ca
00
100100- -growth economy
- if you can compete
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
9090 9595 0000 0505 1010 1515 2020
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Trade: Ethylene Equivalents TradeTrade: Ethylene Equivalents Trade -- 20202020
International Market depends heavily on existing supply channels
Net trade of Ethylene Equivalents in 2020 equals 21% of Global production
35
40 Millions of Metric Tons
-35
-40
e as or mer can supp y suppor s rap econom c grow e sew ere
25
30
-25
-30
10
15Export Supply
-10
-15
-
Import Demand
0
5
MiddleMiddle NorthNorth OtherOther ChinaChina EuropeEurope IndiaIndia SouthSouth AllAll0
-5
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
7
EastEast AmericaAmerica AsiaAsia AmericaAmerica OthersOthers
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Global FeedGlobal Feed--slate Still Heavily Weightedslate Still Heavily WeightedTowards OilTowards Oil--Based FeedsBased Feeds
World Ethylene Feedstock Percentages - 2006/2011/2016 Comparison
80%
90%
100%
40%
50%
60%
10%
20%
30%
06 11 16 06 11 16 06 11 16 06 11 16 06 11 16 06 11 16 06 11 16
NAM SAM WEP MDE NEA SEA ISC
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 8
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MDE and North America have clear advantageMDE and North America have clear advantage
1650
Dollars per Metric Ton, Ethylene
West EuropeAvg.
1250
1450
Typical China
Northeast
Asia Avg.U.S. Avg.U.S. Avg.850
1050
Asia Avg.
Middle EastAvg.
. .. .
450
500 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
EthaneEthane
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Cummulative Ethylene Capacity (million metric tons)
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
Global PetrochemicalIndustry overview
North America Industry -Revival
MDE Industry Impact ones o e n us ry
China Industr Opportunities and Challenges
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
onc us ons
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Shale ImpactEmergence of two regions of lowShale ImpactEmergence of two regions of lowcost productioncost production
Shale development has enabled North America to become one of thelowest cost regions in the global market
Combined with the Middle East, over 40% of the global ethylenecapacity is cost advantaged
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
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N. America Energy Market Shift Felt around theN. America Energy Market Shift Felt around thePetrochemical WorldPetrochemical World
120%20
Gas as % of Crude$US per Million Btu
80%
100%
14
16
60%
8
10
12
20%
40%
4
6
0%000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 12
Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude
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North American Ethylene Capacity Increases ToNorth American Ethylene Capacity Increases ToLeverage Ethane FeedstockLeverage Ethane Feedstock
Announced (-000- MT) 2012-2014 2016-2020BASF/Fina (Port Arthur) 180
Dow (Taft / Freeport) 386 1500*Equistar (All locations) 521Exxon (Baytown) 1500
Formosa (Point Comfort) 800
Ineos (Chocolate Bayou) 107
Oxy (Ingleside) 550*
Shell (Northeast) 1000*
Westlake (Lake Charles) 220
Williams (Geismar) 300
Nova (Eastern Canada) 250*Braskem/Idesa (Mexico) 1000
Total 1,714 9,500
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
13Dow, Shell, NOVA, and Oxy capacity additions shown are CMAI estimates
umu a ve o a ,
* Dow, Shell, NOVA, and Oxy capacity additions shown are IHS estimates
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North America Exports .Come Back Into FocusNorth America Exports .Come Back Into Focus
9.0
Million Metric Tons, Ethylene Demand growth in
develo in re ions
7.0
8.0OthersGlycolStyrenics
outpace capacity
5.0
6.0 s a derivative imports
2.0
3.0
.Assume Middle East will
grow market share
0.0
1.0 North America returns as
competitive supplier
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 14
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
Global PetrochemicalIndustry overview
North America Industry -Revival
MDE Industry Impact ones o e n us ry
China Industr
Opportunities and Challenges
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
onc us ons
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The Middle East has Doubled Ethylene CapacityThe Middle East has Doubled Ethylene Capacityover Five Yearsover Five Years
4040Capacity, MillionCapacity, Million MetricMetric TonsTons
3030
55
2020
55
1010
000606 0707 0808 0909 1010 1111 1212 1313 1414 1515 1616
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia IranIran Qatar Qatar KuwaitKuwait United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates Other MDEOther MDE
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The Middle EastThe Middle East Ethylene Story So Far...Ethylene Story So Far...Capacity Additions 2008Capacity Additions 2008--1212
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Jubail Chevron Philli s Q3 2008
Arya Sasol Q1 2008
Jam Q1 2008
Morvarid Q3 2010
Saudi Ethylene Polyethylene Co. Q3 2008
Petro-Rabigh Q2 2009
Sharq Q4 2009
Saudi Kayan Q3 2010
u yer
TKOC Q4 2008
RLOC Q1 2009
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Borouge 2 Q3 2010
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A Global ImpactA Global Impact
1818
2020
180180
200200Eth lene Production, Million Metric TonsEth lene Production, Million Metric Tons MDEMDE Portion of TotalPort ion of Total,, PercentPercent
14141616
140140160160
88
1010
8080
100100
44
66
4040
6060
0000
9090 9292 9494 9696 9898 0000 0202 0404 0606 0808 1010 1212 1414 1616
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 18
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Aromatics InvestmentsAromatics Investments -- a More Modest Pacea More Modest Pace
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Chevron Philli s Bz 2008
IranBorzuyeh (Bz, Px) 2008
Jubail Chevron Phillips (Styrene) 2008
Saudi Kayan (Bz, Phenol) 2010
OtherKuwait Aromatics (Bz, Px) 2009
TKSC (Styrene) 2009
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Oman Aromatics (Bz, Px) 2009
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Investment PlansInvestment Plans
Saudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia QatarQatar
QatarQatar
SadaraSadara 1500kt1500kt 20162016
SadaraSadara 1500kt1500kt 20162016 QP/QAPCOQP/QAPCO 1300kt1300kt 20182018 QP/QAPCOQP/QAPCO 1300kt1300kt 20182018
United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates
BorougeBorouge 33 1500kt1500kt 20142014
United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates
BorougeBorouge 33 1500kt1500kt 20142014
KuwaitKuwait
PICPIC 1400kt1400kt 2017/82017/8
KuwaitKuwait
PICPIC 1400kt1400kt 2017/82017/8
IranIranIranIran
KavyanKavyan 11 1000kt1000kt 20122012 KavyanKavyan 22 1000kt1000kt 20132013
IlamIlam 458kt458kt 20142014
KavyanKavyan 11 1000kt1000kt 20122012 KavyanKavyan 22 1000kt1000kt 20132013
IlamIlam 458kt458kt 20142014
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 20
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The Middle East Will Add Less Ethylene CapacityThe Middle East Will Add Less Ethylene Capacitythan North America or China in the Next Ten Yearsthan North America or China in the Next Ten Years
Incremental EthyleneIncremental Ethylene Capacity 2012Capacity 2012--2022*2022*
North America
Middle East
China
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
World
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Million Metric Tons * Includes Hypothetical Capacity
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ProductsProducts Will Follow the Most Cost Effective PathWill Follow the Most Cost Effective Pathto Marketto Market Downstream Industry Development??Downstream Industry Development??
HydrocarbonHydrocarbonHydrocarbonHydrocarbonConsumerConsumerDemandDemand
ConsumerConsumerDemandDemandValueValueValueValue
Labor CostLabor CostLabor CostLabor Cost
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 22
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
Global PetrochemicalIndustry overview
North America Industry -Revival
MDE Industry Impact ones o e n us ry
China Industr
Opportunities and Challenges
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
onc us ons
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ChinaChina -- Leading the Global Demand GrowthLeading the Global Demand Growth
China Share in Global Demand (Million Metric Tons)
2007 2009 2011
26% 34%
74%69% 66%
World = 289 World = 284 World = 330
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
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Fast Growing Chinese MarketFast Growing Chinese Market
Million Metric Tons
160
The key success factors:The key success factors:
120 I.I. Government supportGovernment supportII.II. Strong demand growth fromStrong demand growth from
80III.III. Chinese companys nimble growthChinese companys nimble growth
strategystrategy
40
60
0
20
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Production DemandAggregate of PE, PP, PVC, MEG, methanol, phenol, styrene, PTA, butadiene
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Coal Chemical is a Fast Growing SectorCoal Chemical is a Fast Growing Sector
CoalCoal CoalCoal
20%20%OtherOther12%12%
4%Coal11%
Ethylene Cracker96%
Ethylene
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
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Demand For Import Remain StrongDemand For Import Remain Strong
Mill ion Metric Tons
50
40
30
10
02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Methanol PE PP PVC MEG Styrene Phenol Butadiene PTA
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
Global PetrochemicalIndustry overview
North America Industry -Revival
MDE Industry Impact ones o e n us ry
China Industr
Opportunities and Challenges
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
onc us ons
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ConclusionsConclusions
Increased ethane cracking in North America
Reduces supply of C3 and C4 co-products -
Results in significant increase in exports from NAM Returns as primary investment location
Com etes with low-cost Middle East
The Middle East will remain a substantial olefin derivative supplier to Asia
and other re ions
Future investments will be limited by availability of low cost feedstocks
Industry is moving downstream slowly to add value and create jobs
Long-term demand growth remains robust in China
China remains a very competitive world factory floor
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.