Petronet LNG - Q4FY13 Result Update 02052013

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    Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers insideCentrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet

    INDIA

    Petronet LNGOil and Gas Buy

    Q4FY13 Result Update 02May 2013

    Spot plays spoilsportPetronet reported disappointing set of numbers impacted by lower tolling

    volumes and re-gasification margins on spot LNG. Thus, Q4 PAT stood atRs2.5bn, lower by 23.0% sequentially and 14.6% lower than ourexpectations. Overall re-gasification volumes declined by 13.2% QoQ and9.3% YoY at 122.0TBTUs. Lower margins on spot volumes led to 12.3%QoQ decline in blended re-gasification tariffs at Rs38.3/mmbtu whichincludes some income from a take-or-pay contract. Management guidedthat the delayed commissioning of Kochi terminal will now be in July2013. This was due to delay in commissioning of consumer facilities andongoing plant modifications at Petronets Kochi terminal. During the firstyear of operations Kochis utilisation is expected to be about 10% whichwill move up post commissioning of the long distance pipeline network.However, Kochis initial tariff is expected (as per the management) atRs62.0/mmbtu (much higher than Dahejs Rs36.8/mmbtu and our earlierexpectation of Rs50/mmbtu) with 5% YoY escalation clause. We believe

    Petronets valuations look attractive at the current juncture with thecommissioning of Kochi terminal the near term trigger. Maintain Buy. Revenues buoyed by higher long-term and spot LNG prices: Higher spot LNG

    prices (about US$19-20/mmbtu) coupled with rising long-term LNG prices and rupeedepreciation led to 32.8% YoY surge in revenues at Rs84.7bn. Sequentially though,revenue remained flattish.

    Lower tolling volumes and decline in spot re-gasification margins : Higher spotLNG prices at about US$19-20/mmbtu coupled with tight availability in global marketsimpacted Petronets tolling volumes which declined QoQ from 13.5TBTUs to 3.7TBTUsthus impacting tolling income yet it received some income from a take-or-paycontract. Petronets spot volumes declined QoQ from 30.6TBTUs to 24.4TBTUs withoverall volumes declining QoQ from 140.6TBTUs to 122.0TBTUs. Our reversecalculation suggests that spot regasification margins declined by about 13% QoQ fromRs73/mmbtu to Rs63/mmbtu. Blended re-gasification margins thus stood atRs38.3/mmbtu declining by 12.3% QoQ.

    Y/E March(Rsmn) Q4FY13 Q4FY12 YoY (%) Q3FY13 QoQ (%) Q4FY13E Var. (%)

    Net sales 84,656 63,754 32.8 84,228 0.5 79,297 6.8

    Operating profit 4,344 4,230 2.7 5,289 (17.9) 4,772 (9.0)

    OPM (%) 5.1 6.6 6.3 6.0

    PBT 3,831 3,651 4.9 4,675 (18.0) 4,252 (9.9)

    PAT (adjusted) 2,451 2,451 0.0 3,185 (23.0) 2,870 (14.6)

    Operating Metrics

    Total sales vol. (TBTUs) 122.0 134.5 (9.3) 140.6 (13.2) 134.0 (9.0)

    Blended regas. Char. (Rs/mmbtu) 38.3 36.7 4.3 43.7 (12.3) 42.3 (9.6)

    Source: Company, Centrum Research

    Lower volumes coupled with lower margins impact profitability: 13.2% QoQdecline in volumes coupled with 12.3% QoQ drop in blended re-gasification tariffs ledto 23.0% decline in PAT at Rs2.5bn from Rs3.2bn in Q3.

    Kochi initial tariff expected at Rs62/mmbtu: Management has guided Kochis initialtariff at Rs62/mmbtu (with annual escalation of 5%) which is higher than our

    assumption of Rs50/mmbtu which has raised our DCF based target price. Also, Kochiterminal is expected to be commissioned in July due to the delay in commissioning ofconsumer facilities and ongoing plant modifications at Petronet Kochi terminal. Spotavailability pressure in early Q4 has now subsided and prices have cooled off to aboutUS$14-15/mmbtu which suggests higher re-gasification volumes in Q1FY14E. Progresson all the other projects including Dahej second jetty along with capacity expansionand Gangavaram terminal are as per expectations. We have changed our estimatesbased on indicative re-gasification margin for Kochi, delayed commissioning of Kochifacility (thus affecting depreciation and interest for FY14E) and higher long term LNGprices. Our DCF based target price has moved up to Rs213 from Rs190 earlier, primarilyon account of higher re-gasification tariffs for Kochi. We remain positive on Petronetwith Kochi commissioning the near term catalyst and maintain Buy on the stock.

    Key Data

    Target Price Rs213 Bloomberg Code PLNG IN

    CMP Rs139 Reuters Code PLNG.BO

    Upside 53.0% Current Shares O/S (mn) 750.0

    Previous Target Rs190 Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 750.0

    Previous Rating Buy Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn) 104.4/1.9

    Price Performance (%)* 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 180/122

    1M 6M 1Yr Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 992,151

    PLNG (3.1) (19.1) 3.3 Face Value (Rs) 10

    NIFTY 5.2 6.3 14.3 USD = Rs53.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research*as on 02 May 2013

    Blended re-gasification margins

    21

    .32

    5.3

    25

    .426

    .63

    0.8

    30

    .4 32

    .5

    32

    .7

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    Q1FY10

    Q2FY10

    Q3FY10

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Q3FY11

    Q4FY11

    Q1FY12

    Q2FY12

    Q3FY12

    Q4FY12

    Q1FY13

    Q2FY13

    Q3FY13

    Q4FY13

    36

    .8

    37

    .0 38

    .6

    36

    .741.6 4

    4.3

    4

    3.7

    38

    .3

    40.0

    45.0

    50.0

    (Rs/mmbtu)

    Source: Company, Centrum Research

    Re-gasification volumes

    99

    114

    95

    92 9

    5 100

    120 1

    26 1

    33

    135 14

    5

    135

    127 1

    35 141

    122

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    Q1FY10

    Q2FY10

    Q3FY10

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Q3FY11

    Q4FY11

    Q1FY12

    Q2FY12

    Q3FY12

    Q4FY12

    Q1FY13

    Q2FY13

    Q3FY13

    Q4FY13

    (TBTUs)

    Source: Company, Centrum Research

    Earning Revision

    FY13E FY14EParticulars (Rs mn) Current Earlier Chg (%) Current Earlier Chg (%)

    Sales 318,367 283,276 12.4 352,447 327,733 7.5

    EBIDTA 19,744 19,668 0.4 22,697 21,500 5.6

    EBIDTA margin (%) 6.2 6 .9 (70)bps 6.4 6 .6 (20)bps

    Net profit 8,860 8,724 1.6 10,270 9,940 3.3

    EPS Rs. 11.8 11.6 1.4 13.7 13.3 3.4

    Source: Centrum Research

    Rohit [email protected] 22 4215 9854

    Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT YoY (%) EPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) PE (x) PB (x) EV/EBITDA

    FY11 131,973 23.9 12,161 9.2 6,196 53.2 8.3 25.2 18.6 16.8 3.9 11.1

    FY12 226,959 72.0 18,292 8.1 10,575 70.7 14.1 34.1 25.4 9.9 3.0 6.8FY13E 314,674 38.6 19,388 6.2 11,493 8.7 15.3 28.8 24.2 9.1 2.3 6.1

    FY14E 318,367 1.2 19,744 6.2 8,860 (22.9) 11.8 18.4 19.2 11.8 2.0 6.5

    FY15E 352,447 10.7 22,697 6.4 10,270 15.9 13.7 18.4 18.6 10.2 1.7 5.3

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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    Conference call highlights

    Reverse calculations suggest spot re-gasification margin (including marketing margin) duirng Q4at Rs64/mmbtu (Q3FY13 Rs73/mmbtu)

    Long-term re-gasification margins increased by 5% from January 1, 2013 at Rs36.8/mmbtu Petronet earned income from take-or-pay contract for one of the cargos under re-gasification

    services; thus average re-gasification margin for services was at Rs67.0/mmbtu in Q4 instead ofRs36.8/mmbtu

    Forex gain of Rs580mn in other expenditure needs to be taken in raw material costs (adjustmentfor representation only)

    Kochi terminal update Expected to be commissioned by H2 July 2013 delay due to consumer facility not being

    commissioned and Petronet is also making some modifications to lower its operating costs asthe terminals utilisation is expected to be lower during the first year of operations

    Capex till March Rs40bn another Rs5bn to be spent in Q1 Re-gasification margins Initially at Rs62/mmbtu with 5% escalation clause thereafter Pipeline work Laying of pipelines in Kerala is continuing at the rate of about half a km

    pipeline per day while Tamil Nadu is still facing some issues

    Kochi-Mangalore-Bangalore pipeline Expected to take another year for completion Major consumers as of now FACT and Kochi refinery

    Dahej update Second jetty expected to be commissioned by March 2014 With second jetty, additional 1.0-1.5mmt volumes can be regasified at the terminal

    Gangavaram With all the necessary approvals, the terminal can be operated with FSRU by early 2015;

    otherwise, land based terminal is expected to be commissioned by early 2017

    LNG from Exxon, Gorgon is expected by mid-2015Exhibit 1:Expansion in re-gasification capacity

    5.0

    1.5

    5.0

    1.5

    5.0

    2.0 3.05.05.0

    6.5

    10.011.5

    16.5 17.0

    20.0

    25.0

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    Da

    he

    j-

    FY2005

    Da

    he

    jde-

    bott

    lenec

    ke

    d

    -FY2007

    Da

    he

    j

    expan

    de

    d-

    June

    2010

    Da

    he

    jde-

    bott

    lenec

    ke

    d

    -FY12

    Koc

    hi

    -July

    FY14

    Da

    he

    j

    expan

    de

    d-

    Mar

    2014

    Da

    he

    j

    expan

    de

    d-

    2015

    Gangavaram

    2015

    -17

    (mmtpa)

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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    Exhibit 2:Annualised capacity utilisation

    7.7

    8.9

    7.5 7.2 7.57.8

    9.49.910.5 10.6

    11.4

    10.510.010.611.0

    9.6

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    Q1FY10

    Q2FY10

    Q3FY10

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Q3FY11

    Q4FY11

    Q1FY12

    Q2FY12

    Q3FY12

    Q4FY12

    Q1FY13

    Q2FY13

    Q3FY13

    Q4FY13

    (mmtpa)

    Source: Company, Centrum Research

    LNG purchase deal with United LNG, US

    Petronet has signed an initial agreement to purchase 4.0mmtpa LNG from United LNG. United LNG willsupply LNG from its liquefaction terminal at Main Pass Energy Hub project in the Gulf of Mexico. Thefinal commercial agreement is expected to be signed by the end of 2013 and the LNG supplies arethen expected to start from 2018 onwards.

    Although LNG supplies are expected to start by 2018, it provides visibility for utilisation of Petronetsre-gasification capacities spread across locations with total re-gasification capacity at 25mmtpa (by2017). We believe Petronet is scouting for long term suppliers to ensure some amount of long termsupplies for its upcoming terminals.

    Petronet plans to buy 25% stake in GSPCs re-gasification terminal

    Petronet has also expressed a desire to buy 25% interest in GSPCs re-gasification terminal planned at

    Mundra in Gujarat. Although, the investment is not yet specified, we believe Petronets investmentcould be about Rs3.5-4.0bn.

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    Exhibit 3:Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity to key variables Chg. % impact on FY14E EPS % impact on FY15E EPS

    Change in spot volumes 0.1mmtpa 2.1 1.7

    Change in spot regasification margins Rs5.0 3.8 3.0

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

    Exhibit 4:1 year forward P/E chart Exhibit 5: 1 year forward P/BV chart

    7.0x

    10.0x

    13.0x16.0x

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    (Rs/share)

    1.6x

    2.4x

    3.2x4.0x

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    13

    (Rs/share)

    Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates

    Exhibit 6:Peer comparisonEPS P/E(x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

    CMP FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    GAIL 348 32.2 33.5 10.8 10.4 1.6 1.5 15.9 15.0 16.6 16.1

    Gujarat Gas 248 23.5 24.4 10.5 10.2 2.9 2.6 29.3 27.0 26.6 24.7

    GSPL 67 7.6 8.4 8.8 8.0 1.2 1.1 13.9 13.8 14.8 14.9

    IGL 306 26.5 27.0 11.5 11.3 2.4 2.0 22.4 19.4 24.6 22.0

    PLNG 139 11.8 13.7 11.8 10.1 2.0 1.7 18.4 18.4 19.2 18.6

    Note: Gujarat gas for CY13E and CY14E

    Source: Companies, Centrum Research Estimates

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    Exhibit 7:Quarterly FinancialsParticulars (Rs mn) Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13

    P & L

    Revenues 46,233 53,669 63,303 63,754 70,304 75,486 84,228 84,656

    Raw Materials Consumed 41,331 48,138 57,006 59,393 64,328 70,647 78,089 79,986

    Employee Costs 64 62 64 108 71 87 76 137

    Others 459 459 550 599 637 710 701 770

    EBITDA 4,380 5,010 5,683 3,655 5,268 4,043 5,361 3,764

    Depreciation & Amortisation 458 463 463 458 459 467 472 468

    EBIT 3,922 4,547 5,220 3,197 4,809 3,576 4,890 3,296

    Interest expenses 462 458 345 342 329 317 291 247

    Other Income 231 210 200 221 266 248 149 203

    EBT 3,691 4,298 5,075 3,076 4,745 3,507 4,748 3,251

    Provision for tax 1,155 1,160 1,435 1,200 1,340 1,500 1,490 1,380

    Effective tax rate (%) 31.3 27.0 28.3 39.0 28.2 42.8 31.4 42.4

    Net Profit 2,536 3,138 3,640 1,876 3,405 2,007 3,258 1,871

    Growth (%)

    Revenues 83.0 75.5 74.5 59.9 52.1 40.7 33.1 32.8

    EBITDA 76.8 84.4 64.4 4.0 20.3 (19.3) (5.7) 3.0

    EBIT 94.5 102.0 74.5 4.5 22.6 (21.4) (6.3) 3.1

    EBT 124.5 121.4 99.9 4.6 28.6 (18.4) (6.5) 5.7

    Net Profit 127.7 139.3 113.1 (9.1) 34.3 (36.1) (10.5) (0.3)

    Margins (%)

    EBITDA 9.5 9.3 9.0 5.7 7.5 5.4 6.4 4.4

    EBIT 8.5 8.5 8.2 5.0 6.8 4.7 5.8 3.9

    EBT 7.9 8.0 8.0 4.8 6.7 4.6 5.6 3.8

    PAT 5.5 5.8 5.7 2.9 4.8 2.6 3.9 2.2

    Key drivers

    Volumes (TBTUs)

    LT LNG sales 90.3 90.2 98.4 93.5 96.0 90.3 96.5 93.9Spot sales 43.1 44.9 46.5 41.0 31.0 44.7 44.1 28.1

    Total sales 133.4 135.1 144.9 134.5 127.0 135.0 140.6 122.0

    Re-gasification charges (Rs/mmbtu)

    Blended 36.8 37.0 38.6 36.7 41.6 44.3 43.7 38.3

    Source: Company, Centrum Research

    Exhibit 8:Change in assumptions and estimatesFY14E FY15E

    (Rs mn) Previous Updated Chg. (%) Previous Updated Chg. (%)

    Revenues 283,276 318,367 12.4 327,733 352,447 7.5

    EBITDA 19,668 19,744 0.4 21,500 22,697 5.6

    PAT 8,724 8,860 1.6 9,940 10,270 3.3

    Operating metricsTotal Volumes (TBTU) 566.6 548.4 (3.2) 656.5 631.3 (3.8)

    Blended re-gas. margin (Rs/mmbtu) 41.7 42.0 0.8 39.2 41.6 6.0

    Kochi re-gasification tariff 50.0 62.0 24.0 50.0 62.0 24.0

    Dahej re-gasification tariff 36.8 36.8 - 35.0 36.8 5.3

    US$/INR 52.5 53.0 1.0 51.5 52.0 1.0

    Long-term LNG price 9.5 10.5 10.5 9.5 10.5 10.5

    Total Volumes (mmt) 11.1 10.8 (3.2) 12.9 12.4 (3.8)

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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    Outlook and valuations

    Based on management guidance of Kochi commissioning by July 2013, we have changed our volumeassumption for Kochi downwards. Additionally, we have reduced the depreciation and interestassumptions for Kochi. Management guided for Rs62/mmbtu re-gasification tariff for Kochi which wehad earlier assumed at Rs50/mmbtu. This significant change in re-gasification tariff (24% higher thanearlier) assumption has led to almost Rs14/share increase in DCF value keeping all the other variables

    constant. During the first year of operation, Kochi capacity will be utilised at about 10% which isexpected to jump once the long distance pipeline connectivity improves. Although utilisation isexpected to improve in FY15E, material improvement is expected only in FY16E.

    Dahej re-gasification tariffs were raised on January 1, 2013 to Rs36.8/mmbtu which we had earlierassumed at Rs35.0/mmbtu for FY15E. We have now changed our re-gasification tariff assumption forFY15E at Rs36.8/mmbtu. The second jetty at Dahej is expected to be commissioned by March 2014. Wehave slightly reduced our volume assumption for Dahej terminal to factor in any delay incommissioning of second jetty.

    Together with Kochi, our re-gasification volumes for Petronet in FY15E now stand reduced at631.3TBTUs (12.4mmt). Due to changes in Kochi and Dahej re-gasification tariff assumptions, theblended re-gasification tariff has now been raised by 6.0% in FY15E at Rs41.6/mmbtu.

    The stock is available at 11.8x and 10.2x FY14E and FY15E EPS of Rs11.8 and Rs13.7 respectively. Due to

    the long term nature of the business, we have valued Petronet using DCF methodology leading to ourrevised price target of Rs213 (earlier Rs190). Maintain Buy.

    Exhibit 9:DCF ValuationCost of equity (%) 12.0

    Cost of debt (%) 10.5

    WACC (%) 9.8

    DCF value (Rs/ share) 213.0

    CMP (Rs/ share) 139.0

    Upside (%) 53.0

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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    7

    Financials

    Exhibit 10:Income StatementY/E March (Rsmn) FY11 F Y12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

    Revenues 131,973 226,959 314,674 318,367 352,447

    Growth in revenues (%) 23.9 72.0 38.6 1.2 10.7

    COGS 118,012 205,867 293,050 295,555 326,463

    % of net sales 89.4 90.7 93.1 92.8 92.6

    Power and Fuel 651 1,124 1,180 1,653 1,735

    % of net sales 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5

    Employee Costs 306 298 370 407 448

    % of net sales 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

    Admin Sales & Dist. Exp 68 83 157 318 352

    % of net sales 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

    Others 775 1,294 530 690 752

    % of net sales 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2

    EBITDA 12,161 18,292 19,388 19,744 22,697

    Y-o-Y growth (%) 43.7 50.4 6.0 1.8 15.0

    EBITDA Margin (%) 9.2 8.1 6.2 6.2 6.4

    Depreciation & Amo rtisation 1,847 1,842 1,866 3 ,410 4,711

    EBIT 10,315 16,451 17,522 16,334 17,986

    Interest expenses 1,934 1,774 1,184 3,731 3,329Other Income 684 849 865 822 904

    EBT bef. Prior period items 9,064 15,525 17,203 13,424 15,561

    EBT 9,064 15,525 17,203 13,424 15,561

    Provision for tax 2,868 4,950 5,710 4,564 5,291

    Effective tax rate (%) 31.6 31.9 33.2 34.0 34.0

    Net Profit 6,196 10,575 11,493 8,860 10,270

    Y-o-Y growth (%) 53.2 70.7 8.7 (22.9) 15.9

    Adjusted Net Profit Margin (%) 4.7 4.7 3.7 2.8 2.9

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

    Exhibit 11:Balance SheetY/E March (Rsmn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E F Y15E

    Equity Share Capital 7,500 7 ,500 7,500 7 ,500 7,500

    Reserves 19,302 27 ,698 36,997 44,128 52,219

    Shareholders' fund 26,802 35,198 44,497 51,628 59,719

    Debt 29,891 30,340 27,182 39,279 35,046

    Deferred Tax Liability 3,480 3,630 3,910 3,910 3,910

    Total Capital Employed 60,173 69,168 75,589 94,817 98,674

    Total Fixed Assets 27,024 25,215 26,884 73,474 70,263

    CWIP 20,122 32,900 40,000 200 200

    Investments 11,649 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399

    Inventories 2,480 7 ,124 10,366 12,315 13,603

    Sundry Debtors 8 ,472 12,859 16,898 18 ,571 20,559

    Cash & bank balances 1,575 9,839 12,685 14,375 20,121

    Other current assets 125 86 26 26 26

    Loans and advances 3,165 2 ,689 2,570 2 ,770 2,970

    Total current assets 15,816 32,597 42,546 48,057 57,279

    Current l iabilities & provisions 14,439 22,943 35,239 28,313 30,466

    Net current assets 1,377 9,654 7,306 19 ,744 26,813Total Assets 60,173 69,168 75,589 94,817 98,674

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

    Exhibit 12:Cash flowY/E March (Rsmn) FY11 F Y12E FY13E F Y14E FY15E

    PBT 9,064 15,525 17,203 13,424 15,561

    Interest 1,934 1,774 1,184 3,731 3,329

    Depreciation 1,847 1,842 1,866 3,410 4,711

    Other Income (684) (849) (865) (822) (904)

    Op. profit bef. WC changes 12,161 18,292 19,387 19,744 22,697

    Change in working capita l 2,118 (591) 4,831 (10,748) (1,323)

    Tax ( Including FBT) (2,650) (4,800) (5,710) (4,564) (5,291)

    Cash from operations 11,629 12,901 18,509 4,431 16,084

    Change in f ixed assets (6,981) (12,809) (10,635) (10,200) (1,500)

    Change in investments 4,154 (167) - - -

    Other income 684 849 865 822 904

    Cash from investments (2,143) (12,126) (9,770) (9,378) (596)

    Free cash flow 8,802 (74) 7,874 (5,769) 14,584

    Change in borrowings 7,163 (1,822) (3,158) 12,097 (4,233)

    Dividends paid (1,743) (2,179) (2,179) (1,743) (2,179)

    Interest paid (1,934) (1,774) (1,184) (3,731) (3,329)

    Others (14,802) 13,264 628 15 -

    Cash from financing (11,316) 7,490 (5,893) 6,636 (9,742)Net cash flow (1,830) 8,264 2,846 1,690 5,746

    Opening cash balance 3 ,405 1,575 9,839 12 ,685 14,375

    Closing cash balance 1,575 9,839 12,685 14,375 20,121

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

    Exhibit 13:Key RatiosY/E March FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

    Margin Ratios (%)

    EBITDA Margin 9.2 8.1 6.2 6.2 6.4

    PBIT Margin 7.8 7.2 5.6 5.1 5.1

    PBT Margin 6.9 6.8 5.5 4.2 4.4

    PAT Margin 4.7 4.7 3.7 2.8 2.9

    Growth Ratio (%)

    Revenue 23.9 72.0 38.6 1.2 10.7

    EBITDA 43.7 50.4 6.0 1.8 15.0

    Net Profit 53.2 70.7 8.7 (22.9) 15.9

    Return Ratios (%)

    ROE 25.2 34.1 28.8 18.4 18.4

    ROCE 18.6 25.4 24.2 19.2 18.6

    ROIC 14.2 19.4 19.6 15.3 15.2

    Turnover Ratios

    Asset turnover ratio (x) 1.8 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.7

    Avg. collection period (days) 23.4 20.7 19.6 21.3 21.3

    Avg. payment period (days) 17.3 22.2 28.2 20.0 20.0

    Per share Ratios (Rs)

    Basic EPS 8.3 14.1 15.3 11.8 13.7

    Fully diluted EPS 8.3 14.1 15.3 11.8 13.7

    Book value 35.7 46.9 59.3 68.8 79.6

    Cash earnings per share 10.7 16.6 17.8 16.4 20.0Dividend per share 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.5

    Dividend payout ratio (%) 24.2 17.7 16.3 16.9 18.3

    Gearing Ratio (x)

    Debt-equity 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6

    Interest coverage ratio 5.3 9.3 14.8 4.4 5.4

    Valuation (x)

    P/E (Fully Diluted) 16.8 9.9 9.1 11.8 10.2

    P/BV 3.9 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.7

    EV/EBITDA 11.1 6.8 6.1 6.5 5.3

    EV/Sales 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

    M-cap/Sales 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3

    Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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    Appendix A

    Disclaimer

    Centrum Broking Limited (Centrum) is a full-service, Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and NationalStock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE). Our holding company, Centrum Capital Ltd, is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities. As agroup Centrum has Investment Banking, Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered byour Research Group. Our research professionals provide important inputs into the Group's Investment Banking and other business selection

    processes.Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking, advisory, project finance or otherbusinesses and may receive commission, brokerage, fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of thismaterial/report. Our Company and Group companies and their officers, directors and employees, including the analysts and others involved inthe preparation or issuance of this material and their dependants, may on the date of this report or from, time to time have "long" or "short"positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Centrum or its affiliates donot own 1% or more in the equity of this company Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written marketcommentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietarytrading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We mayhave earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or differentthose made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give riseto or potential conflicts of interest. We and our Group may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of informationcontained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of Centrum. Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market inthe security of the company for which this report or any report was written. Further, Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subjectcompanys securities at the time that the research report was published.

    This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offerto buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be reliedupon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material containedherein. It is for the general information of the clients of Centrum. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive thisreport at the same time. Centrum will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personalrecommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Similarly, thisdocument does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specificperson who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The securities describedherein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. The countries in which the companies mentioned in thisreport are organized may have restrictions on investments, voting rights or dealings in securities by nationals of other countries. Theappropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who mayreceive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, ifnecessary, seek professional/financial advice. Any such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis ofthe information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject

    matter of this document.The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject tosignificant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one ormore of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, andsuch variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors ofthis report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with publishedguidelines or generally accented accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assuranceon these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation orwarranty by or on behalf of the Company, Centrum, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or theirunderlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report aftercarefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts.

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    predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are stronglyadvised to consult regarding any potential investment. Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arisingout of the use of this report. Foreign currencies denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverseeffect on the value or price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which areinfluenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. Certain transactions including those involving futures, options, and otherderivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please ensure that youhave read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into any derivative transactions.

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    The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comesshould inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Neither Centrum nor its directors, employees, agents or representativesshall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arisefrom or in connection with the use of the information.

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    The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of CentrumBroking and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as ofthe date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate orprojection.

    This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company orany of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by thecompany or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of thecompany or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents orotherwise arising in connection therewith.

    Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months.Centrum and affiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve

    months from the date of this report for service in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, debt restructuring, investment banking or otheradvisory services in a merger/acquisition or some other sort of specific transaction.

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    Member (NSE, BSE, MCX-SX), Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

    Registration Nos.

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    Centrum Broking Limited

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