Petroleum SWP-229 Countries 1974-1980 - World...

Energy and Petroleum in SWP-229Non-Opec Developing Countries1974-1980

World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 229

Febiruary 1976

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This paper is for staff use. Theviews expressed are those of theauthor and not necessarily thoseof the Bank.

WORLD BANK

Bank Staff Working Paper No. 229

ENERGY AND PETROIEUM IN NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

1974-1980

Between 1974 and 1980 the non-OPEC developing countries' demand for energywill continue to grow as incomes grow, though at slower rates than over thepast fifteen years. The thirteen oil exporters among them will double theiroil export volumes over this period. Countries which rely on imported oilneed, since its rise in price, to adjust their energy use per unit of productand to intensify the exploitation of domestic energy reserves, where possible.Many will nonetheless remain heavily dependent on oil imports for the fore-seeable future. The oil importers of the middle income group (with per capitaannual incomes between $200 and $375) are expected to fare particularly badly,because their own oil reserves are minimal.

Though the distribution of their reserves is uneven, all the non-OPEC develop-ing countries together have enough economically recoverable energy reservesto reduce their dependence on energy imports from other groups of countriesfrom about 30% in 1974 to between 12% and 6% in 1980. To achieve this wouldentail annual investments that are twice as high in real terms as those madein the years 1968-73. The poorest countries among them (with per capitaannual incomes below $20C)) have about half the energy reserves of the group(India's coal and Niger's uranium reserves account for a very high proportion)and present economic conditions would make it profitable for them to meet 90%of their energy needs from indigenous sources in 1980. However, to do thisthey would need to invest the annual equivalent of 1.3% of GDP in energyproduction over the next five years.

February 1976

Prepared by Adrian LambertiniAssisted by Susana de Campos, Hernan Reitze, Hector Reyes, Cecelia RiveraCommodities and Export Projections Divisioni3conomic Analysis and Projections DepartmentDevelopment Policy Staff

ENERGY AND PETROLEUM IN NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

1974-1980

Table of Contents

I. ENERGY AND GRUWTH IN THE NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES . ...... 1

A. Introduction . 1

B. The Energy Balances of the Non-OPEC Developing Countries:Domestic Requirements and Indigenous Supply 2........ 2

II. TliE ENERGY SECTORS OF THE NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ......... 12

A. Power and Primary Electricity.. 12

B. Coal. ............................ * * * * * * * * * * * * * 15

C. Petroleum ..................... ................ , 19

ANNEX I Prospects for Oil Production in Non-OPECDeveloping Countries

ANNEX II Methodological Notes

ANNEX III Countries Included in the Analysis

ANNEX IV Tables: Energy Resources

ANNEX V Appendix Tables

ANNEX VI References

TEXT TABLES

1. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Energy Consumption and Production, byIncome Group

2. Non-OPEC Developing Coimtries: Energy Intensity

3. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Medium Term Energy Resources

4. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Energy Production - Consumption Ratios,by Income Group

5. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Investments in the Energy Industries

6. Net Oil Imports of Non-OPEC Developing Countries, 1955-1980, byOil Balances of 1975

7. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Investments in the Power Sector, byIncome Group

8. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Investments in Coal Production byIncome Group

9. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Investments in the Petroleuim Industry:Oil and Natural Gas, Aggregate

10. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Investments in the Petroleum Industry:Oil Operations Breakdown

11. Non-OPEC Developing Cointries: Vintage Composition of Crude Oil.Production as of mid 1974

12. Non-OPEC Developing Countries: Yield per Well, by Vintage Compositionof Crude Oil Production

13. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Crude Oil Reserves, Production ardDecline Rate

14. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Oil Development Costs

15. Non-OPEC Developing Countries: Crude Oil Production

16. Non-OPEC Developing Countries: Natural Gas Gross and Marketed Production,1973

17. Non-OPEC Developing Countries' Investments in the Petroleum Industry:Natural Gas Operations Breakdowm

ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS

Enargy Form Basic Unit Kcal Barrels per Conversion Factorsper unit metric ton (million ton of

crude oil equivalentto basic unit)

CrLde Oil milli.on mt 10,500/kg. 7.30 1.0

Refined Products 1.05

IPG n 11,930/kg. 11.80Casoline 11,290 " 8.53Jet fuel/Kerosene 11,330 'I 7.93Cas oil/Diesel oil " 10,960 ' 7.46Residual fuel oil 10,560 " 6.66

Natural. Gas billion m3 9,000/m3 0.857

Solid Fuel billion mt 7,000/kg. 0.667

Primaary Electricity billion Kwh 860/Kwh 0.0820

I. ENERGY AND GROWTH IN THE NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

A. Introduction

1. The non-OPEC developing countries have almost half the world'spopulation, but they presently account for less than 10% of its energy

consumption, equivalent to only 13% of the energy consumed by the developedcountries. Energy consumption, industrialization and economic growth are

closely linked. The past fifteen years saw the achievement of relatively

rapid economic growth in the developing countries, associated with a 22%

rise in the energy-intensity of production 1/ and a doubling of theirenergy consumption. The most important single source of energy in these

countries is oil. Some of them are net oil exporters;2/ most are net

importers. Since the increases in the international oil price, many of the

oil importers have faced severe foreign exchange constraints in trying tomaintain their previous energy consumption patterns.

2. Over the next five years the growth of demand for energy in thenon-OPEC countries is expected to be somewhat slower than between 1960 and1974, reflecting the slower growth of incomes. Many of these countries have

substantial energy reserves that for a variety of reasons are not being fully

exploited, and a large number of those which at present depend heavily on

imported oil will find it profitable to expand domestic energy productionsharply over the next five years. Through a combination of slower demand

growth and expanding supply from indigenous sources, some of them will be able

to satisfy an increasing share of demand from domestic sources. Countries that

are unable - for want of appropriate energy reserves or want of capital - to

reduce their dependence on imported energy will need to reduce the energy

intensity of their economies, limiting investments in new production capacity

that is energy-intensive, if their economic growth is not to suffer further

serious setbacks.

3. In this study demand for energy in the non-OPEC developing countries

in the period 1974-80 is forecast on the basis of exogenous GDP growth rate

estimates and assumptions as to the international price of oil. It is assumed

for the analysis that between 1974 and 1980 the economies of the middle and

higher income developing countries will grow at 5.5% per annum, and those of

1/ See Table 2.

#/ The net oil exporters have 10% of the population of the non-OPECdeveloping countries.

* The author wishes to thank Merih Celasun, John Foster, Efrain Friedmann,Wouter Tims, Jos de Vries and Jean Waelbroeck for their advice andcomments, and Lenore Beacham and Rachel Weaving for their assistance.

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the lower income countries by 4.5% p.a. 1/ Two alternative assumptions havebeen used on the international price of oil 2/: the first assumes that theprice remains at its 1974 level in real terms (i.e. at US$9.80 per barrel, in1974 dollars); the second assumes a gradual decline in real terms, to US$7.00per barrel in 1974 dollars by 1980. These two assumptions will be referredto in what follows as the "constant" and the "declining" oil price cases, andare noted in the tables as "I" and "III.

4. Energy production in the non-OPEC developing countries between 1974and 1980 is calculated using estimates of their known reserves, announcedproduction plans, and estimated price and income elasticities.3/ Section I.Bbelow outlines the investments that will be needed if these productionforecasts are to be achieved. It then analyzes the energy balances of the non-OPEC developing countries, and discusses how far they will be able to reducetheir dependence on imports by 1980. Chapter II gives a more detailed accountof past and projected production and investments on a fuel by fuel basis, withthe main emphasis on the petroleum sector.

B. The Energy Balances of the Non-OPEC Developing Countries:Domestic Requirements and Indigenous Supply

Demand

5. The non-OPEC developing countries' consumption of commercial energyincreased from 3.5 million to 8.6 million b/d of oil equivalent between 1960and 1974 (see Table 1), while their annual per capita consumption of energyincreased from 156 to 270 kg. of oil equivalent. (This is still a low figurewhen compared to the per capita consumption levels of developed economies,which range from 2,750 kilograms p.a. in Japan to 8,200 p.a. in North America.)By 1980, their demand for energy is expected to increase to between 11.0 and 11.5million b/d of oil equivalent, depending on the international price of oil.

Reserves

6. The non-OPEC countries are relatively well-endowed with energyresources. At current prices and costs, they could begin to produce over22 billion metric tons of oil equivalent within the coming five years (Table 3).If these reserves were all used over a twenty-five year period, the non-OPECdeveloping countries could consume 410 kg. of oil equivalent per capita per

1/ For purposes of this analysis non-OPEC developing countries are dividedinto three groups by per capita income in 1972: higher income countries arethose above $375, lower income countries below $200, and the middle incomegroup is between the two. Countries are listed in Annex III. All growthrates quoted in this paper are compound growth rates between the indicatedend points. Thus 4.5% is the growth rate from end 1974 to end 1980, anddoes, not include growth in 1974.

2/ Saudi Arabian Light crude, 340, f.o.b. Ras Tanura.3/ An account of the methods used for the various fuels is given in Annex II- Section 3.

TABLE 1: NUN-Ukuu urv iaiiG CZUreav1T,1n w. A) n PRODUCTION BY INCOKE RO,UP

(In thouwands of b/d of oil equivalent)

1960 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 19802/ 19802/(I) (II)

INLAND ENERGY CONSUMPTION

HIGH INCONE 1862.8 2515.6 3113.0 3748.3 3973.0 4293.6 4713.9 4876.5485 6550

Oil 1467.0 1925.0 2392.0 2933.0 3096.0 3366.0 3763.0 3865.0 4405 4715Coal 192.0 240.0 271.6 253.0 270.2 267.5 253.0 263.0 480 375Primary Electricity 59.9 89.6 113.2 138.2 146.2 155.2 173.5 198.0 430 430Natural Gas 143.9 261.0 336.2 424.1 460.6 505.0 524.4 550.5 1170 1030

MIDILE INCOUME 461.4 665.8 893.4 1105.7 1222.4 1261.9 1311.3 1381.1 1645 1845

Oil 319.0 467.0 660.0 849.0 942.0 990.0 1028.0 1073.0 900 1150Coal i31.0 179.0 204.14 219. 239.14 226.8 2142.0 263.0 540 515Primary Electricity 11.1 17.7 26.0 33.5 36.4 39.6 35.9 39.1 90 g0Natural Gas 0.3 2.1 3.0 4.2 4.6 5.5 5.4 6.0 115 90

LOW INCOME 1113.5 1L59.6 1829.6 1?19.2 1987.9 2045.0 2150,1 2209.6 3045 3070

Oil 359.5 510.2 682.0 724.1 814.4 867.1, 900.0 880.0 860 960

Coal 724.0 931.0 1044.0 996.0 1037.0 1024.0 1075.0 1142.0 1750 1750Primary Electricity 18.8 35.1 48.3 60.8 65.o 65.9 69.7 74.6 140 140Natural Gas 11.2 33.3 55.3 68.3 71.5 87.7 105.4 113.0 295 220

ALL COUNTRIES 3436.7 4691.0 5836.o 6653.2 7183.3 7600.6 8175.3 8467.2 11175 11465

Oil 2145.5 2902.2 3734.0 [576.1 4852.4 5223.4 5601.n 5818.0 6165 6825

Coal 1047.0 1350.0 2520.0 1468.o 1546.6 1518.3 1570.0 16448o 2770 2640

Primary Eaectricity 88.8 142.4 187.5 112.5 247.6 260.7 279.2 211.7 660 660

Natural Gas 155.4 296.4 394.5 496.6 536.7 598.2 635.2 669.5 1580 1340

INDIGENOUS ENERGY PRODUCTION

HIGH INCOME 1416.3 1873.6 2608.2 3037.5 3138.4 324 .8 3359.4 3614.7 5810 5580

Oil 1048.0 1314.0 1928.0 2264.0 2310.0 2384.0 2462.0 2533.0 3760 3760

Coal 151.0 192.0 217.0 201.0 222.6 222.6 209.0 215.0 380 300

Primary Electricity 59.2 85.8 108.5 133.1 140.8 152.4 170.2 194.0 420 420

Natural Gas 158.1 281.8 354.7 439.4 465.0 487.8 518.2 667.7 1250 1100

IGDGLE INCOME 221 5 Z 10 2 8 811.3 837.7 8 15-5 1860

Oil 80.0 154.0 266.o 538.0 552.0 520.0 530.0 544.0 1215 1215

Coal 131.0 195.0 211.4 220.0 236.6 226.8 236.0 263.0 430 400


Natural Gas 0.3 2.4 3.0 4.2 4.6 22.8 32.5 45.4 175 150

LOW INCOHE 774.9 1077.8 1288.5 1356.4 1390.2 1460.1 1510.9 15514.9 2750 2680

Oil 28.0 82.0 146.0 162.0 170.2 176.0 172.0 176.0 490 490

Coal 716.0 927.0 1038.8 1021.0 1040.2 1082.2 1065.o 1142.0 1750 1750


Natural Gas 11.2 33.3 55.3 112.5 114.5 136.5 152.2 162.3 360 290

ALL CUtRIES 21412.7 3323.8 4407.6 51914.4 5L 5518.2 ,57080 51465.1 10475 10120

Oil 1156.0 1550.0 2340.0 2864.0 3032.2 3080.0 3164.0 3253.0 5465 5465

Coal 998.0 1314.0 1467.2 1442.0 1499.4 1531.6 1510.0 1620.0 2560 2450Primary Flectricity 89.1 142.3 187.4 172.3 247.4 259.5 279.1 311.7 665 665

Natural Gas 169.6 317.5 413.0 556.1 584.1 6147.1 702.9 876.4 1785 1540

2/ Alternative oil price assumptiona. See para. 3 .

Source: U.N. Series J and World Bank staff estimates.

TABLE 2: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIESENERGY INTENSITY

(METRIC TONS OF OIL EOUIVALENT PER THOUSAND 1972 DOLLARS OF GDP)

1960 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1980 1980_ - - - ~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(I)- (II) -

INLAND ENERGY CONSUMPTION 173,210 239,170 291,800 337,635 358,245 410,455 410,185 427,710 558,750 573,250

(In thousand metric tons)

High Income 93,370 126,830 155,650 183,915 198,650 214,680 234,695 244,725 324,250 327,500

Middle Income 22,530 34,570 44,670 55,965 61,120 63,095 67,015 69,705 82,250 92,250

Low Income 57,310 77,770 91,480 97,755 98,475 103,680 108,475 113,280 152,250 153,500

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 200,586 255,807 294,314 333,562 351,147 366,575 390,632 411,367 559,030 559,030

(In millions of 1972 US$)

High Income 98,749 129,796 151,200 174,231 186,740 200,390 215,067 229,275 316,400 316,400

Middle Income 34,123 44,788 51,398 58,726 62,370 64,915 69,382 73,892 101,970 101,970

Low Income 67,714 81,223 91,716 100,605 102,037 101,270 106,183 108,200 140,660 140,600

ENERGY CONSUMPTIONflD? 0,86 0,94 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.05 1,04 1.00 1.03

High Income 0.95 0,98 1,03 1,06 1.06 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.03 1.04

Middle Income 0.66 0,77 0,87 0,95 0.98 0.97 0,97 0.94 0.81 0.91

Low Income 0.85 0.96 1.00 0.97 0.97 1.02 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.09

Note: Ehergy-intensity estimates relate the use of commercial-energy to gross domestic product valued in dollars of a base year at a constant exchange rate.

Source: Table 1 and World Bank National Accounts Series.

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year without importing energy from other groups of countries.1/ Elowever, the

distribution of their reserves is far from even. (See Annexes IV and V.)

Almost half are in the lower income countries, and largely consist of India's coal

reserves. The lower income group's reserves of natural gas and oil are less

significant, and are concentrated in six countries.2/ Only one country in the

group, Zaire, is an exporter of oil.3/ The group accounts for 75% of the non-

OPEC countries' reasonably assured low-cost resources of uranium, though the

bulk of these are in Niger.

7. The middle income countries are less favored: their oil and natural

gas reserves are concentrated in the five oil-exporting countries among them;

they have only 16% of the group's hydropower resources and no low cost reason-

ably assured uranium resources. With the exception of the Republic of Korea,

where coal accounts for almost half total energy consumption, and Rhodesia,

the middle income countries' coal reserves are as yet largely unexploited.

However, they are not d-istributed evenly: thu bulk are in southeastern African

countries. The higher income country group includes seven net exporters of oil,

and is relatively well endowed with other energy resources (see Table 3).

Production and Capital Requirements

8. In 1974, the non-OPEC developing countries produced primary energy

equivalent to 6.1 million b/d of oil, which supplied a high proportion of

their total energy requirements and in some cases left a surplus for trade.

Countries in the higher income group met 74% of their aggregate energy require-

ments from indigenous sources; those in the middle income group, 65%; and those

in the lower income group, 71% (see Table 4).

9. Such levels of production were only achieved with a considerable

investment effort over the preceding fifteen years. As Table 5 shows, energy

investments / in the non-OPEC developing countries totalled some $4.2 billion

1/ Assuming that production of 22 billion metric tons of oil equivalent starts in

- 1977, and relating output in 1990 (mid-point of 25 years) to population,which is projectedc to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2% p.a. from

its level of 1,48( million in 1973.

2/ Natural gas in Palcistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, and to a lesser

extent in India, Burma and Zaire; oil in the latter three countries.

3/ As of end 1975. Net exporters of oil are list.ed in Annex Lil. page L.

4/ Investments in exploration, geological and geophysical expenses, lease

rentals, port facilities, tankers and marketing, have not been estimated

for the past nor the future. Moreover, investments in crude oil and

natural gas only take account of fields currently under production or slated

for production in the coming five years. See Annex I for details.

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Table 3s NON OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES MEDIUM TERMENERGY RESOURCES

(Million metric tons of oil equivalent)

Oil- Natural- Coal- Hydro- Nuclear- TotalGas Power Power

Higher Income 2,370 1,050 2,170 130 350 6,070

Middle Income 1,110 785 3,150 60 - 5,05

Lower Income 180 480 9,250 185 1,050 11,145

TOTAL 3,660 2,315 1i4,570 375 1,400 22,320

1/ Economically recoverable at current prices and costs.

2/ The measured or reasonably assured fraction of resources which couldbe economically exploited in the coming 5 years.

3/ All. estimated reserves.

Source: See Annex IV Tables 1,5,6,7,8 and 9.

TABLE 4: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIESENERGY PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION RATIOS

BY INCOME GROUP

1960 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1980 1960(I) (II)

PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION 0,71 0.71 0,76 0.77 0,74 0.72 0.70 0,72 0.94 0.88

High Ilcome 0.76 0.74 0.83 0.83 0.79 0,76 0.72 0.74 0.90 O.85

Oil 0.72 0.68 0.81 0.79 0.75 0.71 0.66 0.66 0.85 0.80Coal 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.80 0.79 0.80Primary Elecrricity 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.96Natural Gas 1.10 1.08 1.06 i.4 W 1.01 0.97 0.99 1.21 1.07 1.07

Middle IDcame 0.51 0.55 0.57 0.73 0.68 0,64 0.64 0.65 1,16 1,01

Oil 0.27 0.32 0.40 0.63 0.59 0.53 0.51 0.51 1.35 1.06Coal 1.00 1.09 1.03 1.01 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.78Primary Electricity 0.92 1.19 1.17 1.14 1.14 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.06 1.06Natural Gas 1.00 1.14 1.00 1.00 1.00 4.15 6.02 7.57 1.52 1.67

LaW Income 0.71 0.72 0.70 0.70 0,68 0.68 0.70 0.71 0,90 O.87

Oil 0.08 0.16 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.57 0.51Coal 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.01 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00Primary Electricity 1.05 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.01 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.07 1.07Natural Cas 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.44 1.44 1.22 1.32

ALL COUNTRIES 0.71 0.71 0.76 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.72 0.94 0.88

Oil 0.54 0.53 0.63 0.66 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.56 0.89 0.80Coal 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.93Primary Electricity 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01Natural Gas 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.00 1.11 1.31 1.13 1.15

Source: Table 1.

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per year (1973 dollars), and accounted for over 1% of GDP in the majority ofthem. During the same period, these countries increased their oil productionby 6.3% (or by 1.2 million b/d); their coal production by 1.6% p.a. (or by8.5 million metric tons); their natural gas production by 11.2% p.a. (or by570.5 million cubic feet); and their power-generating capacity by 6.2% p.a.(or almost 20 million kilowatts).

10. In the years to 1980 the non-OPEC developing countries as a groupare expected to expand their production of energy at faster than historicalrates. Though GDP growth is expected to be lower for the majority ofcountries than from 1968-73, the annual capital requirements of their energyindustries are likely to be almost doubled - reaching over $7 billion per yearin 1973 dollars.

11. For their oil industries to respond fully to the prices assumed inthis study, and thus to increase output by 2 million b/d, or 8.2% p.a., wouldrequire annual investments of about $2.7 billion (1973 dollars). 1/ In otherenergy industries the growth of demand, as incomes grow, and the relativelyhigh price of oil, will justify annual production increases of 6.2% to 7.2%in the case of coal (requiring annual investments of $203-$230 million); 11%to 12.6% in natural gas ($307-$410 million p.a.); and 6.6% in electric power($3.8 billion p.a.).2/

12. The investment requirements of the power sector are expected to remainhigh relative to total energy investments, as in the past five years. In themiddle income countries this sector is expected to account for 70% of totalenergy investment requirements, compared to 68% between 1968 and 1973. In thehigher income countries the power sector's share of investment requirements islikely to increase from 37% to 40%. By contrast, in the lower income countriesthe share of the power sector is likely to decline, from 67% to 60%, because ofthe large absolute increases in the requirements of their oil and coalindustries (Table 5).

13. Provided the non-OPEC developing countries are able to realize theselarge investments, they will raise their self-sufficiency substantially: by1980 they should be able to meet 88% to 94% of their total energy requirementsfrom domestic sources (Table 4). The lower income countries should in additionbe able to reduce their energy imports absolutely. However, these countriesare likely to find it much harder than others to make the necessary energyinvestments. As Table 5 shows, their required investment in energy productionbetween 1974h and 1980 would account for 1.3% of their GDP, whereas their actualenergy investment between 1968 and 1973 represented only 0.6% of GDP. For themiddle and higher income countries, no such rise is involved.

1/ See Tables 5, 10 and 15 and Annex I.

2/ See Tables 7, 8, and 9.

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TABLE 5: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AVERAGE ANNUAL INVESTMENTS

IN THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES

(Constant 1973 dollars)1968-73 1974-80

I IHIGH INCOMEI' 2,440 3,710 3.660

Oil 1,380 1,820 1,880Coal 4 40 20Power 905 1,500 1,500Natural Gas 151 350 260

MIDDIE INCCME 1,153 1,730 1,780

Oil 337 364 420Coal 24 40 33Power 780 1,300 1,300Natural Gas 12 30 26

LOW INCOME 613 1,660 1,670Oil TI- T7B 500Coal 48 150 150Power 409 1,000 1,000Natural Gas 13 30 21

ALL NODES 4.206 7,100 7,110

Oil 1,860 2,662 2,800

Coal 76 230 203

Power 2,094 3,00 3,800Natural Gas 176 410 307

---------- - .- %

INCOME GROUP SHARE 100.0 100.0 100.0

High Income 58.0 52.0 51.0

Middle Income 27.4 25.0 25.0Low Income 114.6 23.0 24.0

INDUSTRY SHARE1/ 100.0 100.0 100.0

Oil 44.2 37.0 40.0-Coal 1.8 3.0 3.0

Power 49.8 54.0 53.0Natural Gas 4.2 6.o 4.0

SHARE OF ALL ENERGY INVESTMENTS IN GDP (%) 1.2 1.4 1 .4

High Income 1.3 1.3 1.3Middle Income 1.8 1.9 1.9Low Income 0.6 1.3 1.3

Hemorandum:

Average GDP inmillion 1973 US Dollars (1968-1973) (1974-1980)

High Income: 191,165 284,850Middle Income: 63,477 91,803Low Income: 104,837 130,399

Total: 359,479 507,052

Source: See Tables 7,8 and 9.

1/ Included in the estimates of capital requirements of the higher incomecountries are investments in refining capacity in four refining centerswhich accounted for over 35' of the investments in refining over the period1-968073. This distorts the industry's share: netting out the inveatments in

four refining centers would show that the investments in the power sectorwere almost 30% higher than the investments in the oil sector, over the sameperiod. See also Table 10.

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14. In pursuing the analysis further, it is implicitly assumed that allthe groups of countries will succeed in meeting the investment requirementsoutlined above.

Energy Balances

15. Energy imports consist almost entirely of oil: in 1974 the non-OPECdeveloping countries as a group met only 56% of their oil requirements, but97% of their coal requirements and 100% of their primary electricity require-ments (allowing for some trade between higher income Zambia and middle incomeRhodesia) from domestic sources. Their production of natural gas exceededdomestic requirements by 30%. The gap between coal requirements and indigenousproduction consisted mainly of coking coal, and was filled by imports from theUnited States and to a lesser extent from CPEs.

16. Dependence on imported oil differs markedly by income group. In 1974the higher income countries imported 36% of their oil requirements; the middleincome group imported about half their requirements, while countries in thelower income group depended on imports for eighty percent of their oil needs(see Table 4).

17. These figures give no indication of the oil production-consumptionratios of individual countries. Since some of them have been both net importersand net exporters of oil during the period 1960-73, the non-OPEC developingcountries have been classified according to their positions in 1975. (Thisdoes not result in a major misrepresentation.)

18. As Table 6 shows, the thirteen oil exporters among the non-OPECdeveloping countries together exported over one million b/d in 1974, and haveaccounted for a growing proportion of the oil produced by all non-OPEC develop-ing countries (55% in 1960 and 64% in 1974). Their share of this total isexpected to continue growing, to reach 70% by 1980. The production increasethat is foreseen for the oil-importing countries comes mostly from Peru, whichwill in fact become a net exporter before 1980, as it was before 1960.

19. The net oil importers among the developing countries depended onforeign supplies for three-fourths of their domestic oil requirements in 1974.In that year, they imported 4.8 million b/d of crude oil, which was offset bynet exports of 1 million b/d of refined products and 0.3 million b/d ofbunkers.1/ The middle income oil importers have expanded their oil importsparticularly rapidly over the 1960-74 period, as Table 6 shows, reflectingtheir limited energy resources and their relatively vigorous economic growth.this g,roup accounts for over three-fourths of the middle incomile nountriesI oil

zorns umotion.)

1/ The estimate includes four coimtries with large export-oriented refiningcenters: Netherlands Antilles, Bahamas, U.S. Virgin Islands and Singapore.In 1973, the four countries imported 2.1 million b/d of crude oil andexported 1.5 million b/d of refined products and .2 million b/d of bunkers.

Table 6: NET OIL IMPORTS OF NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNIRIES, BYOIL BALANCES OF 1975, BETWEEN 1955 AND 1980

1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1980(I) (II)

----------------- millions of b/d --------------------

Net Oil Exporters 1/: -0.11 -0.15 -0.96 -0.85 -1.01 -2.4 -2.28

of which: high income 2/ -0.19 -0.20 -0.65 -0.57 -0.70 -1.40 -1.30

middle income 3/ +0.07 +0.O4 -0.32 -0.29 -0.31 -1.00 -0.95

low income 4/ -0.01 -0.01 +0.01 +0.02 -0.00 -0.03 -0.03

Net Oil Importers: 1.13 1.52 2.56 3.52 3.57 3.30 3.80

of which: high income 0.63 0.82 1.30 2.01 2.03 2.20 2.40

middle income 0.17 0.28 o.64 0.80 0.84 0.70 0.90

low income 0.33 0.42 0.62 0.71 0.70 o.4o 0.50

Net oil importers' balance as %

% o.V their oil consumption:all countries 70 68 70 77 76 67 70

high income 56 55 57 68 67 65 66

middle income 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

low income 99 88 84 87 80 48 53

Memorandum:

Share of Net Oil Exporters intotal oil production of non-OPE, Developin Countries, byincome group ()

all countries 55 50 61 62 64 69 69

high income 53 48 58 60 61 66 66

middle income 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

low income - - - - - 10 10

Note: Net imports are denoted by a positive sign; net exports by a negative sign.

1/ rhe net exporting countries account for 10% of the non-OPEC developing countries'

populations.

2/ Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Trinidad, Tunisia, Oman, Bahrain.

3/ Angola, Bolivia, Congo, Egypt, Syria.

4/ Zaire.

Source: UN Series J.

- 12-

20. In the coming five years, the oil output of the net importingcountries is expected to grow more rapidly than their oil consumption,1/ andby 1980 their dependence on foreign oil supplies is likely to have dropped tobetween 67% and 70% of their requirements. They will need to import from 3.3to 3.8 million barrels per day, compared with about 3.6 million b/d in 1974.(See Table 6.) By 1980, the oil importers in the middle income group maystill have to meet all their domestic needs from imports; and those in thehigher income group, 65%-66% of their requirements (compared with 67% in 1974).The lower income oil importers (i.e. all the lower income countries except Zaire)are expected not only to reduce their dependence on imports substantially - from80% in 1974 to between 48% and 53% in 1980 - but also to achieve an absolutereduction in their import volumes - from 0.70 million b/d in 1974 to 0.40 or0.50 million b/d in 1980.

II. THE ENERGY SECTORS OF THE NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 2/

A. Power and Primary Electricity

21. Electric power generation is the largest energy-related industry innon-OPEC developing countries. By 1974, the power capacity installed in thesecountries amounted to about 80 million Kw, or more than three times the reportedcapacity in 1960. The higher income group accounted for 48% of the total powercapacity in these countries; the middle income group for 29%; and the lowerincome group for the remaining 23%. Reflecting the assumptions on GDP growthand estimated income elasticities of demand for electricity, power-generatingcapacity is expected to grow most rapidly in the lower income countries overthe projection period. (See Table 7.) Medium-term income elasticities of demandfor electricity are estimated at 1.6 in the middle income countries, and 1.15 in

1/ Oil consumption forecasts are noted in para. 53 belo;i, by income group.

2/ The analysis in this chapter deals mainly with the petroleum sector inthe non-OPEC developing countries. More detailed studies of the powerand coal sectors have been underta.ken by the Bank's Public UtilitiesDepartment and by the Economic Analysis and Projections Departmentrespectively.

- 13 -

TABLE 7: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIESINVESTMENTS IN THE POWER SECTOR

1968-73 1974-80

1/ 2/Capacity Investment Share Capacity Investment ShareIncrease Increase

HIGH INCOM4E 8.2 905.0 43.2 16.6 1,500.0 40.0

MIDDLE INCOME 7.1 780.0 37.2 i4.2 1,300.0 34.0

LOW INCOME 3.5 409.0 19.6 11.0 1,000.0 26.0

ALL NODES 18.8 2,094.0 100.0 41.8 3,800.0 100.0

1/ Million Kw

2/ Million 1973 dollars per year.

- lh-

the higher, and 1.80 in the lower income countries. 1/

22. About 38% of the non-OPEC developing countries' installed powercapacity consists of hydroelectric plants. Over the coming five years, theirtotal power generation 2/ is expected to increase by 50%,3/ while hydro-electricity generation will increase even faster, possibly accounting for 68%of total generation by 1980. Together, these countries have 44% of the world'shydraulic resources, but as of 1974 only 4% of the resources they commandedhad been developed. By 1980, at these projected growth rates, no more than8% will have been developed. (See Annex IV.)

23. Besides hydropower, other sources of primary electricity are currentlybeing developed in the non-OPEC developing countries. In 1974, nuclear powerplants were operating in India and Argentina. By 1980 almost 10% of the primaryelectricity generated in the lower income countries and 12% of the primaryelectricity generated in the higher income countries will be from nuclear plants.In the middle incone countries, nuclear power is expected to account for 14% oftotal primary electricity generation in 1980.

1/ These elasticities were estimated for the period 1960-73. No attempt hasbeen made in this paper to estimate the elasticity of electricity consumptionwith respect to changes in generation costs, affecting thermal powergeneration costs in particular. From information given by the Bank's PublicUtilities Department, it can be estimated that the increase in oil prices totheir current-level has had the effect of increasing the cost per Kwh in anoil fired plant from 9 to 20 mills. The cost per Kwh generated in a hydro-electric plant is estimated at 15 mills. Thus, average generation costs atthe plant - due account taken of the changing hydro-thermal mix - are esti-mated to increase by 45% for the rest of the decade, over 1973 (when oilprices averaged around $3.00 per barrel). However, the price increase tothe consumer should be smaller, as transmission and distribution costs(which account for about 50% of power investments) are not affected by higheroil prices. Furthermore, a decrease in average generation costs should beexpected in non-OPEC developing countries, if 1974 is taken as the base year -instead of 1973 - due to changes in the hydro-thermal mix. For long-termelasticities of demand see Annex II, section 3.

2/ A fixed relationship has been assumed between capacity and generation.

3/ The share of hydropower in higher income countries is heavily influencedby Brazil, where hydroelectric capacity accounts for more than 85% oftotal capacity and is sti1l expected to increase. In middle and lowerincome countries, hydroelectricity is expected to account for around 57%of total capacity, in 1980.

- 15-

24. The non-OPEC developing countries are relatively well endowed withuranium resources.1/ Altogether, they have almost 70,000 metric tons oflower cost uranium resources (roughly 7% of the world total), with an energycontent of 16 million Gwh in non-breeder reactors (equivalent to about 90times their production of primary electricity in 1973) and 940 million Gwh inthe still commercially undeveloped breeder reactors. Their additional lowercost resources amount to approximately 42,000 metric tons, and their highercost resources to 188,000 metric tons.

25. Lower cost thorium resources in the non-OPEC developing countriesamount to almost 60,00o metric tons,with an energy content in breeder reactorsof 836 million Gwh. Additional lower cost resources are estimated at onebillion metric tons. Higher cost resources amount to 609,000 metric tons.

26. The diStribution of uranium and thorium resources among the non-OPEC developing countries is not even. The lower income countries account forabout three fourths of the lower cost reasonably assured uranium resources,and three higher income countries account for the remainder. Niger has 80% ofthe lower income group's resources and has recently become a significantexporter. Argentina has 80% of the higher income group's resources. Brazil, ahigher income country, accounts for all the lower cost reasonably assuredthorium resources in non-OPEC developing countries.

27. Geothermal electricity generation is still in its initial stages,and by 1980 is expected to account for under 1% of the primary electricity

generated in higher income countries, and for 1.4% of that generated in middle

income countries.

B. Coal

28. The coalmining industry in the majority of developing countries isgenerally very small: a one mine or one field activity. India, Korea andRhodesia are exceptions. In 1974, coal accounted for 6% of the total energyconsumption in the higher income countries; 20% in the middle income countries;and 53% in the lower income countries.

29. Coal's share in the consumption of energy in the latter two groupsis heavily weighted by the shares of Korea and India, respectively. In Korea,coal accounts for 47% of total energy consumption. In India, coal is stillthe single largest source of energy and accounts for 71% of total energyconsumption. Both these countries meet their coal requirements entirely fromdomestic sources. Since in both of them coal prices are set by the Government,independently of the international price, existing supply projections have

been adopted here. These foresee coal production at 31 and 130 million metric

1/ In the medium term, only the energy content of reasonably assured lower

cost uranium resources in non-breeder reactors should be considered an

energy resource.

- 16 -

TABLE 8: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIESINVESTMENT IN COAL PRODUCTION

1968-73 1974-80

/1Production /2 Production ProductionIncrease Investment Share Increase Inves i nt Share Increase Inveltment Share

HIGH .2 4.0 5.0 11.0 40.0 17.0 5.0 20.0 10.0

MIDDLE 2.6 24.0 32.0 11.0 40.0 17.0 9.0 33.0 16.0

LOW 5.7 48.0 43.0 39.0 150.0 66.0 39.0 150.0 74.0

TOTAL 8.5 76.0 61.0 230.0 53.o 203.0

/ Million Metric Tons of Coal

/2 Miflion 1973 dollars per year

-17 -

tons in 1980, respectively. 1/

30. Other non-OPEC developing countries' use of coal is much lessextensive, and depends on the availability of domestic supplies, the qualityof the resources and the relative prices of coal and oil. Domestic suppliesare supplemented with imports of coking coal from the United States, andto a lesser extent from the COMECON area. In these countries the priceelasticity of coal supply has been estimated at 0.37 in the medium term.2/

31. As oil prices declined worldwide between 1960 and 1973, coalproducers had little incentive to invest in new capacity. Between 1968 and1973, investments in the coal industry in non-OPEC developing countries only

reached significant levels in middle income (mainly Korea) and lower incomecountries (mainly India); and in the higher income countries, investmentswere barely enough to maintain the capacity that existed at the beginning ofthe period (see Table 8). From 1968 to 1973-coal production in the higherincome countries increased by 200,000 metric tons; in the lower incomecountries, by 5.7 million metric tons; and in the middle income countries, by2.6 million metric tons.. 3/

32. Economically recoverable reserves of solid fuels in developingcountries other than India and Korea are currently estimated at 8.7 billionmetric tons. (See Annex IV Table 7.) Of these reserves, more than 55% arereportedly high ranking coals. However, under 10% of the reserves arebituminous coals; the remainder are sub-bituminous coals, lignite and, to alesser extent, peat. Most of these coals have a lower heat content thanthose that enter world trade and appear to be more suitable for burning assteam coal than as an input to the steel industry. The period of decliningoil prices thus offered no stimulus to expanded production of coals of thisquality.

1/ Coal production projections for Korea were set out in a report submittedby the Nation.9l Committee of the Republic of Korea to the World EnergyConference in September, 1974. The present study adopts the revisionsto these made by a World Bank economic mission to Korea in that year.The official target for coal production in India, over the Fifth Planperiod, was set at 135 million metric tons in the fiscal year 1978/79.Based on the findings of a team that visited India at the end of 1973, aproduction level of 130 million metric tons of coal in 1980 has beenadopted for the present study.

2/ The price elasticity of coal supply in the developing countries wasestimated relative to international coal prices, i.e. the price ofbituminous coal, f.o.b. Hampton Roads. See Annex II, section 3.

3/ Gross investment per incremental metric ton of coal has been estimatedat $20.00 in 1973 prices.

- 18 -

TABLE 9: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INVESTMENTS IN THE

PETROLEUM INDUSTRY: OIL AND NATURAL GASAGGREGAiTE

(millions of 1973 dollars per year)

(1968-1973) (1974-1980)II

HIGH INCOME 1,531 2,170 2,140

Oil 1,380 / 1,820 1,880Natural Gas 151 350 260

MIDDLE INCOME 349 394 446

Oil 337 364 420Natural Gas 12 30 26

LOW INCOME 156 508 521

Oil 143 478 500Natural Gas 13 30 21

TOTAL NODCs 2,036 3,072 3,107

Oil 1,860 2,662 2,800Natural Gas 176 41o 307

INCOME GROUP SHARE. 100.0 100.0 100.0

High Income 75.2 70.6 68.9Middle Income 17.1 12.8 14.3Low Inzome 7.7 16.6 16.8

SECTOR SHARE 100.0 100.0 100.0

Oil 91.4 86.7 90.1Natural Gas 8.6 13.3 9.9

II/ Including, investments in refining capacity in four refining centers.(See Table 10.)

- 19 -

33. India's estimated coal resources amount to around 83 billion metrictons, of which 23 billion are proven reserves. Of the proven reserves, 50%are economically recoverable deposits, favorably located, and up to 92% arehigh ranking coals. Korea's coal resources are estimated at 1.5 billionmetric tons, of which 900 million are proven reserves. Economically recover-able reserves amount to 544 million metric tons. There are no deposits of

bituminous coals in Korea and existing resources consist of anthracite ofrelatively low heat content.

C. Petroleum

34. The petroleum industry is the second largest energy-related industryin the non-OPEC developing countries, and between 1968 and 1973 accounted for44% of their total energy investments (see Table 5). During this period, their

crude oil production capacity increased by 300 million barrels per year, and

their refining capacity by about 1.5 billion barrels. Refining accounted forover half these countries' total investments in the petroleum industry over the

period (see Table 10). Over the rest of this decade it is likely that theslowdown in oil consumption growth will sharply reduce the capital requirementsof the refining industry, resulting in a changing investment pattern withinthe petroleum sector. But even if funds are thus released for the developmentof production, the availability of capital is still likely to be a binding

constraint on the expansion of the sector.

Crude Oil and Oil Pipelines

35. The large increase in crude oil production capacity that the non-OPEC developing countries achieved between 1968 and 1973 demanded annualinvestments of about $800 million (1973 dollars) in crude production and ofslightly over $50 million per year (1973 dollars) in the laying of oil pipe-line facilities. If these countries are to increase their production capacityfrom its current level of 3.3 million b/d to 5.5 million b/d by 1980, theywill need to invest around $2.0 billion per year in crude production, and almost$100 million per year (again in 1973 dollars) in pipeline facilities over thenext five years. (Tables 9 and 10.)

36. The bulk of the investment required will be needed to financeproduction increases in relatively new areas. Significant net increases in

output are expected offshore Brazil, offshore India, offshore Brunei and

Malaysia, offshore Egypt, onshore Peru, and from southeastern Mexico. (Table

15.)

37. The remainder will largely be needed to arrest production declinesin older oil producing areas (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Burma and

onshore India, in Gujarat). Table 11 gives the vintage composition of fieldsin production in mid-1974, and shows that about 30% of the crude oil producedin mid-1974 by non-OPEC developing countries came from fields discovered before1955; 36% from fields discovered from 1955-65; and 35% from fields discoveredsince 1965.

- 20 -

TABLE 10: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIESINVESTMENTS IN THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY

- OIL - OPERATIONS BREAKDOWN

1968-73 1974-80

1I L /1Production/ /2 Production/ /2 Production/ /2Capacity Investment Capacity Investment Capacity InvestmentIncrease Increase Increase

(I) (II)HIGH INCOME 1,380.0 1,820.0 1.8S0.0- Crude Oil 195.0 600.0 315.0 1,300.0 315.0 1,300.0- Crude Oil Pipelines /3 35.0 50.0 50.0- Refineries 1,130.0- 745.0 440.0 470.0 580.0 530.0

MIDDLE INCOME 337.0 364.0 420.0

- Crude Oil 95.0 120.0 244.0 300.0 244.0 300.0- Crude Oil Pipelines 17.0 37.0 37.0- Refineries 305.0 200.0 -65.0 27.0 50.0 83.0

LOW INCOME 143.0 478.0 500.0- Crude Oil 10.0 75.0 115.0 400.0 115.0 400.0- Crude Oil Pipelines 1.0 10.0 10.0- Refineries 60.0 67.0 62.0 68.0 108.0 90.0

ALL NODCs 1,860.0 2,662.0 2,800.0- Crude Oil 795.0 2,000.0 2,000.0- Crude Oil Pipelines 53.0 97.0 97.0- Refineries 1,012.0 565.0 703.0

INCOME GROUP SHARE 100.0 100.0 100.0- Higher 74.2 68.4 67.1- Middle 18.1 13.7 15.0- Lower 7.7 17.9 17.9

SECTOR SHARE 100.0 100.0 100.0- Crude Oil and Oil Pipelines 45.6 78.8 74.9- Refineries 54.4 21.2 25.1

L Million Barrels/year/2 Million 1973 US$ - annual average/3 Includes more than 400 million barrels of capacity increase in h refining centers: Singapore, U.S. Virgin Islands, Bahamas,

Netherlands Antilles.

- 21 -

38. Falling production in countries that were once self sufficient oralmost self sufficient in oil is a phenomenon that may worsen in the comingfive years. During the 1960s, declining international prices for crude oilhad their greatest effect on the expansion of the oil sector in countrieswhere oil operations were state-owned, and where production was geared tothe domestic market. Prices of crude oil and oil products produced locallywere held at unprofitable levels, which discouraged investment in newexploration. The development of existing fields was intensified, and explor-atory drilling remained fairly stable. Moreover, falling internationalprices discouraged the development of smaller oil prospects. As a consequencethe success ratio of drilling declined, increasing the costs of successfuloil well completions. Thus there was an overall decline in the profitabilityof crude oil production operations in these countries, and a reduction in theinvestment funds that the industry could generate to finance expansion.Increasingly, the industry responded to the growing demand for oil byexpanding refining capacity, to process imported oil. Investments inrefining further restricted the availability of capital to crude productionoperations. Crude oil production remained concentrated in relatively wellknown areas, which resulted in a progressive aging of existing fields.

39. Table 12 illustrates the effect of field vintage on well productivity.Except for Syria, where production was considerably delayed by lack of gatheringfacilities, well productivity in fields discovered since 1965 was in generalsignificantly higher than in older fields.

h0. Table 13, showing the behavior of estimated decline rates 1/ overthe past decade, reveals that in general decline rates increased in olderproducing areas and decreased in newer areas. (A fall in the decline ratemeans that known reserves have increased faster than the rate of offtake.)

41. The costs of completing productive oil wells 2/ increased duringthe 1960s, both because the success ratio diminished anT because of an increasein the direct costs. Combined with declining well productivity in existingfields, the increased costs of successful oil well completions resulted in

1/ The decline rate is the rate at which well yield declines due to loss ofreservoir pressure and well interference. As the present analysis ismade on a country rather than a well or field basis, a proxy to thedecline rate has been adopted (see Annex II, section 1). This is theratio of production to reserves which, in the limit, is equal to thedecline rate. The term decline rate is used throughout this paper inreference to the proxy.

2/ The cost of a productive oil well consists of the direct cost of drillinga successful well plus workovers and the cost of allocated dry holes.In this analysis, dry holes were allocated between oil and gas wells ona pro rata basis, as described in Annex II, section 1. Workovers are alloperations performed on a well after its completion.

- 22 -

TABLE 11: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIESVINTAGE COMPOSITION OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION - MID 1974

(b/d and %)

Production From Fields Discovered:Group/Country Before 1955 From 1955 to 1965 From 1965 onwards Total

b/d % b/d % b/d % b/d %

High IncomeArgentina 319,934 76 64,293 15 37,718 9 421,945 100Brazil 34,482 20 62,207 36 75,500 44 172,189 100Brunei 39,051 18 111,399 53 64,452 29 214,902 100Chile 2,851 10 25,797 90 - - 28,648 100Colombia 67,678 40 98,956 58 3,093 2 169,732 100Malaysia 111,245 100 111,245 100Mexico 131,360 26 173,987 34 208,201 4O 513,548 100Peru 34,700 50 34,050 49 950 1 69,700 100Trinidad & Tobago 47,686 26 57,641 32 75,923 42 181,250 100Tunisia - 52,300 71 21,747 29 74,047 100

Middle IncomeAngola - _ 161,423 100 161,423 100Bolivia 1,665 4 25,889 54 19,968 42 47,522 100Congo - 220 1 51,000 99 51,220 100Egypt 7,298 6 14,036 12 97,001 82 118,335 100Syria _ 155,000 100 - - 155,0oo 100

Low IncomeBurma 7,000 30 - - 16,000 70 23,000 100India 67,742 43 76,778 49 11,480 8 156,000 100Pakistan 4,006 57 - - 3,057 43 7,063 100

Other- 94 2 3.6L8 8h - - 4,361 100Weighted Average 29 36 35 1001/ 14% UnallocatedSource: Oil and Gas Journal

- 23 -

TABLE 12: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIESYIELD PER WELL BY VINTAGE COMPOSITION OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION - MID 1974

( b/d )

Yield Per Well from Fields Discovered:Group/Country

Before 1955 From 1955 to 1965 From 1965 Onwards Average

High IncomeArgentina 88.8 142.9 898.0 169.7Brazil 70.7 133.5 254.2 174.oBrunei 113.2 1,375.3 1,572.0 1,205.2Chile 62.0 95.5 - 92.2Colombia 37.9 353.b 309.8 226.3Malaysia _ 2,139.3 2,139.3Mexico 101.9 103.4 644.4 319.5Peru 16.0 152.0 52.8 83.0Trinidad & Tobago 21.5 83.9 1,332.9 595.3Tunisia _ 1,494.3 945.5 1,335.1

Middle IncomeAngola 891.8 891.8Bolivia 22.5 166.0 391.5 255.0Congo - 73.3 1,o4o.8 1,031.1Egypt 81.1 226.4 497.4 439.9Syria _ 1,260.2 - 1,260.2

Low IncomeBurma 13.7 _ 139.1 101.5India 68.8 167.3 112.5 120.6Pakistan 333.8 _ 164.3 518.9

Other 3.0 49.3 h0.8

Source: Oil and Gas Journal

- 24 -

TABLE 13: [NJON OPEC DEVELOPING COUPNTRIESCRUDE OIL RESMIRES, PRODUCTION ANID DICLINE RATE

(In millions of barrels)

Reserves Production Production/Reserves1965 197)4 T96~1974 1965 197F

High IncomaeArgentina 2900 2)459 98 151 3.4 6.1Brazil 672 779 3h 65 5.1 8.3f3runei L5t J 2000 29 1/ 70 6.4 3.5Chile lI0 210 13 10 8.7 4.8C.olor bia 1700 627 73 61 14.3 9.7Malaysia - 2700 - 30 - 1.1Mexico 2491. 3087 llo 210 b.7 6.8Peru 300 830 23 28 7.7 3.Trinidad & Tobago h25 651 h9 68 11.5 10.5Tunisia 250 533 .. 31 - 5.8

Middle IncomeAngola 4o 1)409 5 63 12.5 .5Bolivia 500 216 3 17 o.6 7.9Congo 3 450 1 17 33.3 1.8Egypt 600 2761 45 5h 7.5 2.0Syria 50c 2776 n.a. 45 - 1.6

Low IncomeBurma 60 117 h 8 6.7 6.8India 1000 926 23 56 2.3 6.1Pakistan 27 30 4 3 1).8 10.0

1/ Includes Ilalaysia

-25-

rising per barrel costs of development, 1/ particularly in older producingareas. Table 14 shows that by the early 1970s the development cost per barrelat the wellhead had in some countries reached twice the price of deliveredimported oil.

42. At constant or increasing well completion costs, falling well yield -resulting from falling ressure and reflected by an increasing decline rate -translates into higher costs per barrel, which can only be offset by an overallincrease in average well yield - resulting from the discovery and developmentof new, more productive fields. In countries where yield is declining irrevers-ibly, the cost situation in the coming few years is unlikely to be significantlyaffected by new discoveries: depending on what gathering and transportationfacilities already exist, it takes between 3 and 7 years to develop fields innew areas. However, smaller oil prospects discovered in previous years andheld in inventory while oil prices were declining will probably be developedfirst, and this should lead to a reduction in the average field size (and hence

an increase in the development cost per well), although it will increase thesuccess ratio of drilling.

43. In countries whose oil fields are newer, discoveries made in recentyears are likely to be developed at declining costs per barrel as field develop-ment progresses.2/

44. The non-OPEC developing countries appear physically capable of increas-

ing their oil production by about 2.0 million b/d by 1980. The estimates in

Table 15 show that the largest relative production increases could be realized

by the lower income countries. The costs shown in Table 14 suggest that withoil prices at their current level, or indeed declining to $7.00 per barrel by1980, there is a strong incentive to continue the development of existing fields

in most of the oil producing countries, even if this involves secondary ortertiary recovery schemes, which could add between $0.50 and $1.50 per barrelto current development costs. Whether large increases in production can infact be realized will depend on the availability of capital, as was noted inChapter I above.

1/ Development costs have been estimated in this paper as a measure ofproduction costs. IThe estimates were made on the basis of capital outlaysin crude oil production. Operating expenses, which are essentially thecosts of extraction, have been overlooked, since they should not signifi-cantly affect the production costs. (The operating expenses per well can

be roughly estimated. at $7,000 (1973 dollars) per year in the UnitedStates. If that figure were adopted for developing countries as well,per barrel operating costs would vary from 5¢ to less than 1¢.) SeeAnnex II, section 2 for the methodology followed in the estimation of

crude oil development costs.

2/ The development cost estimates in Table 14 were not totally purged ofthe exploratory drilling component.

- 26 -

TABIE 14: NON OPEC DEVELOPING COUTITRIESOIL DEVELOPMNT COSTS

______ -____________________ ______________ 1971 - 1973Well Oil Producing Development Well Oil Producing Development

Productivity -well Cost Cost per barrel Productivity Well Cost Cost per barrel_____ r (barrels/yr) (000 S ' )- (197 3U)_ brls/,)('OO0 '73_USs) (1973 US$)

Argentina 16,368 250.0 2.9 29,565 480.o 3.0Brazil 59,333 190.0 0.5 50,013 700.0 2.8Chile 42,6)8 470.0 1.8 30,238 800.0 5.0Colombia 30,715 330.0 1.h 26,9)47 500.0 3.7Mexico 47,831 420.0 3.5 58,57 650.0 2.0Trinidad 19,161 2h5.0 2.2 23,254 395.0 3.6Tunisia 876,750 I,)50.0 0.3 047)4,73 2,000.0 0.8BruneiM4alaysia

Angola 175,136 3,000.0 2.9 302,1476 2,000.0 1.1Bolivia 69,715 260.0 0.6 83,8214 540.0 1.2Egypt 198,025 900.0 0.8 1,800.0 2.0

India 60,193 470.0 1.2 45,890 830.0 3.3

- 27 -

Table 15: NON-OPEC DEVEBOPING ODUNTRIES CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION

('000 b/d)

197h 1975 1977 19802/ 2/

ONStIDRE OFFSHORE TOTAL ONSHORE- OFFSHORE TOTAL ONSHORE OFFSHORE TOTAL ONSHORE OFFSHORE TOTAL

HIGH INCOMEArgentina 422.0 - 422.0 395.0 395.o 400.0 - 400.0 395.0 - 395.0Bahrain 68.0 - 68.0 61.0 - 61.0 60.0 - 60.o 55.0 - 55.0Brazil 186.0 3.0 189.0 170.0 21.0 191.0 130.0 100.0 230.0 110.0 230.0 360.0Brunei 37. 4 155.6 193.0 35.o 140.0 175.0 30.0 220.0 250.0 25.0 215.0 260.0Chile 1/ 1±1.0 - hl.0 37.0 - 37.0 35.0 15.0 50.0 32.0 18.0 50.0Colombia 174.0 174.0 l66h. - 164.0 150.0 - 150.0 135.0 - 135.0Israel * * 119.0 * * 75.o * * 3.0 * 3.0Malaysia - 81.0 81.0 - 90.0 90.0 - 200.0 200.0 - 320.0 320.0Mexico 1/ 588.0 65.o 653.0 785.0 65.o 806.o 930.0 70.0 1,000.0 1,125.0 75.0 1,200.0Oman 291.0 - 291.0 342.0 - 342.0 360.0 - 360.0 305.0 - 305.0Peru 39.0 40.0 79.0 35.o 40.0 75.0 125.0 45.0 170.0 165.0 35.o 200.0Taiwan 4-. - 4.0 5.0 - 5.0 4-.0 - 4-. 4.o - 4.Trinidad 50.0 134.0 184.0 48.0 157.0 205.0 h1.0 154.0 195.0 33.0 167.0 200.0Tunisia 65.0 22.0 87.0 75.0 20.0 95.0 70.0 30.0 100.0 60.0 60.0 120.0

Sub-Total 1,965.0 500.6 2,585.0 2,152.0 328.0 2,720.0 2,335.0 834.o 3,172.0 2,444.0 1,160.0 3,607.0

MIDDLE INCOMEAngola 23.0 145.0 168.0 23.0 142.0 166.0 25.0 150.0 175.0 25.0 200.0 225.0Bolivia 45.0 - 45.0 42.0 - 42.0 50.0 - 50.0 6n.o - 60.0Congo - h7.0 47.0 - 38.0 38.o - 35.0 35.0 - 45.0 ° 5.oEgypt 45.0 100.0 145.0 55.o 175.0 230.0 135.0 315.0 450.o 115.0 415.0 530.0Syria 123.0 - 123.0 170.0 - 175.0 250.0 - 250.0 300.0 - 300.0

Sub-Total 236.0 292.0 528.0 290.0 355.0 651.0 460.0 500.0 960.0 500.0 660.0 1,160.0

LOW INCOMEBurma 23.0 - 23.0 20.0 - 20.0 30.0 - 30.0 35.o - 35.oIndia 156.o - 156.0 165.0 _ 165.0 205.0 20.0 225.0 195.0 200.0 395.0Pakistan 7.2 _ 7.2 6.o - 6.o 7.0 - 7.0 7.0 - 7.0Zaire _ - - - 2.0 2.0 - 50.0 50.0 - 50.0 50.0

Sub-Total 186.2 - 186.2 191.0 2.0 193.0 242.0 70.0 312.0 237.0 250.0 487.0

GRAND TOTAL 2,387.6 792.6 3,299.2 2,533.0 685.0 3,560.0 3,037.0 1,404.0 4,444.o 3,181.0 2,070.0 5,254.0

1/ Includes ccodensate.

2/ Estimated breakdown.

)/ Projected.

* No breakdown available.

Denotes none.

- 28 -

Oil Consumption and Refining

45. Demand for oil in the non-OPEC developing countries increasedbetween 1960 and 1974 at an annual rate of 7.5% (Table 1). From 1974 to 1980,it is projected to increase by 1% p.a. if the price of oil remains constant

in real terms, or by 2.7% p.a. should it decline to $7.00 (1974 100) by 1980.

This slowdown of oil consumption growth reflects not only the direct impact ofhigher oil prices on demand, but also the decline in GDP growth rates forecastfor the rest of the decade.

46. The importance of oil in total energy consumption, the compositionof demand and dependence on foreign supplies vary substantially between the

three groups of countries. These variations are reflected in different priceand income elasticities of demand.

47. In the higher income countries the share of oil in total energyconsumption remained fairly stable, at around 78%, over the past fifteen years.As their energy demand increased, their sources of energy were diversified. In1974, even the net oil importers of the group were able to produce a third oftheir oil requirements domestically. Given the large share of oil consumptionmet from indigenous sources, the higher income countries have been able toinsulate their domestic markets to some extent from changes in international oilprices.

48. In the middle income group, where the rising energy demands of accel-erated growth were largely met by oil, oil's share of total energy consumptionrose from 67% to 77% over the 1960-74 period. In 1974 the net oil importersof this group (which account for 78% of the groupts total oil consumption)imported 100% of their domestic requirements.

49. For the lower income countries, in aggregate, oil is still a secondary

source of energy. Between 1960 and 1974 its share of their total energyconsumption increased from 31% to 38%. There were no oil exporters among thisgroup as of 1974, and indigenous production met only 20% of their domestic oilneeds.

50. Road transportation accounts for 47% of oil consumption in the higherincome countries, and for 31% in the lower income group.1/ If the consumptionof kerosene (primarily a household fuel) is included in calculations, the shareof oil in end-uses with very limited substitution possibilities can be estimated

at 52% in the higher and 58% in the lower income countries. In the middle

income group, road transportation accounts for only 30% of the oil consumed,and kerosene for only 5%. Industry and the power sector, areas with greatersubstitution possibilities, account for the bulk of their oil consumption.

51. The medium term price elasticities of demand for oil have been estimated

as -0.10 in the higher income countries; -0.3 in the middle income group; and

-0.15 in the lower income group.

1/ International Road Federation, World Road Statistics, 1974.

- 29 -

52. Oil consumption has been more closely-linked to overall economicgrowth in the middle income countries than in the other two groups. Theestimated medium term income elasticities of demand for oil are 0.88; 1.1 and0.85 for the higher, middle and lower income groups respectively.1/

53. In 1980, demand for oil in the higher income countries is projected

as 4,405,000 b/d in the "constant" oil price case, or 4,715,000 in the declining

oil price case, representing increases of 14% and 22%,respectively, over the1974 level. In the middle income countries, it may fall by 15% to 900,000 b/d(in the "constant" oil price case), or rise by 7% to 1,150,000 b/d (in thedeclining price case). In the lower income countries, again depending on theinternational price, demand for oil may fall by 3% to 860,000 b/d, or rise by9% to 960,000 b/d by 1980 (see Table 1).

Refining Capacity

54. Between 1968 and 1973, refining capacity in the non-OPEC developingcountries increased by almost 1.5 billion barrels per year, and in the higherand lower income countries was sufficient for domestic requirements by 1974. 2/This increase involved annual investments in refineries of around $1.0 billion.(Table 10.) The growth of investment in refining depends on the growth of demand,itself dependent on the international price of oil and on GDP growth rates. Ifthe price of oil remains constant in real terms in the years to 1980, the middleincome countries (which, it will be remembered, are expected under this assumptionto reduce their oil consumption by 15%) will be faced with surplus refiningcapacity. In the lower and higher income groups, refining capacity will grow moreslowly than in the past.

55. Taking all the non-OPEC developing countries as a group, refiningcapacity is expected to increase in the years to 1980 by 437 million barrels per

year in the "constant" oil price case, or by 738 million barrels p.a. in thedeclining price case (see Table 10). These increases will entail annual invest-ments of $565 million and $700 million (1973 dollars) respectively.3/ Countrieswhich produce some oil domestically, and can blend their own, cheaper, crudewith imported oil, will benefit from increasing their refining capacity.4/ Other

1/ See Annex II, section 3 for details of estimation.

2/ This still holds true when the capacity of the four refining centers isexcluded from the estimate.

/ EThese estimates are made up of net additions to capacity and replacementof capacity (see Annex II). It is assumed that the refining centers will

not add to their capacity during this period.

4/ The capital costs per barrel of refining capacity in non-OPEC developingcountries, assuming capacity-utilization of 100%, have been estimated at35¢ (1973 dollars); and at 80% of capacity, 44¢. Fuel costs vary betweencountries. Thus an oil importing country with no domestic production wouldhave to add, another 50¢ worth of fuel costs to its capital cost per barrelof refined crude. This would add up to 940 (in 1973 dollars), or around$1.20, in current dollars. In oil producing countries, fuel costs will

always be lower, and even negligible in many cases.

- 30 -

TABLE 16: NON OPEC DEVELOPING OJUNTRIES NATURAL GAS:GROSS AND MARKETED PRODUCTION - 1973

(million cubic feet)

Production

Gross-/ Marketed-/ % Marketed

HIGHER INOOME 2,093,399 1,358,864 65

Argentina 314,807 235,000Bahrain 82,855 56,575Barbados 120 85Brazil 41,668 8,300Brunei 220,000 200,000Chile 273,209 144,937Colombia 113,229 59,966Israel 1,911 1,911 13Malaysia 35,000 3,187Mexico 676,750 510,000Oman 90,000 1,500Peru 68,000 18,000Taiwan 51,358 51,000Trinidad & Tobago 119,979 64,385Tunisia 4,513 4,018

MIDDLE INCOME 245,052 71,908 29

Angola 36,000 2,300Bolivia 151,199 57,857Congo 551 551 /3Egypt 18,000 2,000Morocco 2,302 2,200Syria 37,000 7,000

LOWER INCOME 339,259 305,777 90

Afghanistan 110,000 110,000 /3Bangladesh 26,000 26,000 737Burma 12,000 5,400India 59,124 32,242Pakistan 132,100 132,100 /3Rwanda 35 35 73T

TOTAL 2,677,710 1,736,549 65

/1 Comprises all marketed production plus gas vented, flared, reinjectedfor repressuring and used to drive turbines (without being burned).

2 Comprises all gas collected and utilized as fuel or as a chemicalindustry raw material, including gas used in oilfields and/or gasfieldsas a fuel by producers, even though it is not actually sold.

/3 Gross production not reported; marketed output has been reported inlieu of a gross production estimate because the quantity flared, ventedand/or reinjected is believed to be small.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines.

- 31 -

countries, mainly in the middle income group, may find it more advantageous

to import refined products directly, and benefit from occasional producer price

declines in world markets.l/

Natural Gas

56. The non-OPEC developing countries' natural gas resources have largelyremained undeveloped, due to the lack of established markets for natural gaswhich discouraged the construction of gathering and distribution facilities.Except for a few higher income countries where energy consumption is relativelydiversified, and a few lower income countries where natural gas is the main orsingle source of indigenous energy, natural gas in non-OPEC developing countries

has been produced to meet export demand and for use in maintaining pressure in

oil fields. The latter has been particularly the case in the middle income oil

exporting countries, where the value of natural gas for the oil it displacesis higher than as a final source of energy. The relationship between grossand marketed natural gas production gives an indication of the development of

the market for natural gas. (See Table 16.) In 1973 2/ 65% of the production

of natural gas in non-OPEC developing countries was marketed. The remainderwas flared, vented or reinjected. In middle income oil producing countries,29% of the natural gas produced was marketed; in higher income countries 65%;and in lower income countries 90%. The percentage in lower income countriesmay be distorted by the lack of reported gross production. I/

57. Use of this fuel in the non-OPEC developing countries has neverthelessbeen increasing: its share of their total energy consumption rose from 4.4% to7.8% between 1960 and 1974 (see Table 1). By 1980, depending on which of theoil price assumptions is used,4i/ this share may rise to 12% or 14%. Theproduction of natural gas increased by 570.5 million cubic feet between 1968and 1973, demanding an annual investment of $176 million (1973 dollars), ofwhich 44% was required for the laying of pipelines. As the export prospectsfor natural gas improve and domestic demand expands, it will be profitable toincrease production by 1.3 to 1.8 billion cubic feet over the 1974 level. Thiswould entail annual investments of $300 to $400 million (1973 dollars), depend-ing on the price of oil. Fifty-five percent of this investment would be neededfor pipeline laying (see Table 17).

1/ The current cost per metric ton of heavy fuel oil in the Rotterdam market,for instance, is $12 below the export price of Saudi Arabian Light crude,f.o.b. Ras Tanura. The price of gasoline is some $40 above. What aparticular country is able to save thus depends on its end-use composition.

2/ The latest year for which such an estimate was available.

3/ In Canada and the USA, both significant oil producing areas makingextensive use of secondary recovery, more than 90% of the natural gasproduced is marketed.

4/ The elasticity of demand for natural gas with respect to changes in theprice of oil is estimated at 0.25. See Annex II, section 3.

- 32 -

Table 17: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INVESTMENTS OF THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY

NATURAL GAS - OPERATIONS BREAKDOWN

1968-73 1974-80

Prdutin~Iwsten/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 2Productio > Investmentg Production7 Investment- Production- InvestmentIncrease Increase Increase

I II

HIGH INCOME 150.6 350.0 260.0- Natural Gas Production 332.5 87.6 1,200.0 160.0 875.0 120.0- Gas Pipelines 63.0 190.0 140.0MIDDLE INCOME 12.2 30.0 26.0- Natural Gas Production 84.0 3.2 245.0 8.0 210.0 7.0- Gas Pipelines 9.0 22.0 19.0

LOWER INCOME 13.2 30.0 21.0- Natural Gas Production 154.0 7.2 400.0 17e0 260.0 12.0- Gas Pipelines 6.0 13.0 9.0ALL NODCs 176.0 410.0 307.0- Natural Gas Production 98.0 185.0 139e0- Gas Pipelines 78.0 225.0 168.0

INCOME GROUP SHARE 100.0 100.0 100.0

- Higher 85.6 85.4 84.7- Middle 6.9 7.3 8.5- Lower 7.5 7.3 6.8

1/ Billion cubic feet per year.

2/ Million 1973 dollars, annual average.

- 33 -

58. Exports of natural gas are likely to increase substantially between1974 and 1980. In 1974, Afghanistan exported the equivalent of 50,000 barrelsof oil daily to the USSR; Bolivia exported 30,000 b/d equivalent to Argentina;and Brunei, 120,000 b/d equivalent to Japan. Bolivia's exports are likely todouble by 1980; Brunei is expected to export 130,000 to 140,000 b/d equivalent;and Afghanistan's exports may rise to 65,000 or 70,000 b/d, though most of theprojected increase in this country's production is likely to be used domesti-cally. Egypt and Pakistan's growing domestic markets will require largeproduction increases.

ANNEX IPage 1

PROSPECTS FOR OIL PRODUCTION IN NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

1. The short-run response of oil supply to changes in price depends onchanges in output from existing wells. The medium-run response incorporateschanges in output that result from hastening or retarding the drilling ofdevelopment wells; improving the recovery of oil-in-place through artificiallift; and bringing into production fields that would be marginal at lowerprices. The long-run supply response depends on new discoveries, which resultfrom investment in exploration.

2. The following analysis deals with the medium term, i.e. to 1980. Thetime elapsing from discovery to initial production in active areas has recentlyaveraged about three years. Active areas are areas of advanced explorationwhere basic facilities for oil transport and handling are already set up. Thesecond stage, which lasts from initial to "plateau", or potential, production,may take another 2-3 years, or less in exceptional cases. The speed at whichplateau output is reached may be critical to ultimate field recovery, as pressurelosses resulting from premature depletion reduce the life of the reservoirs andmay later require additional investment in secondary and/or tertiary recovery.

3. Projections for 1977 are based on the performance of currently pro-ducing fields and expected initial production from fields discovered as of 1975but not yet in production, while projections for 1980 also include the fullpotential production from fields discovered as of 1975.

4. Data for this Annex have been taken from a range of sources,1/ includinglocal official projections when available. Field by field analyses were under-taken when necessary and possible. No allowance was made for potential oiloutput from discoveries not yet made.

Lower Income Countries

Burma

5. Burma's oil and gas industry is run by the state-owned Myanna OilCorporation (MOC) which produced 23,000 b/d in 1974. Oil reserves are esti-mated at 94 million barrels, of which the Mann field accounts for almost 50%.

6. The decline in production from the older Chauk and Yenanguyan fieldshas been more than offset by output from new fields at Prome, Myananung andMann fields. The latter is the most productive in the country and is one ofseveral fields discovered after 1965. Singu and Mimbu fields, also reportedas post 1965 discoveries, await development. In 1974 the Letpando field was

1/ IBRD staff and reports, Oil and Gas Journal, Petroleum Economist, PetroleumInternational. World Oil, Petroleo y Petroguimica Internacional, InternationalPetroleum Encyclopedia, Bulletin of the American Association of PetroleumGeologists and others.

ANNEX IPage 2

discovered. The field has probable reserves estimated at 30 million barrels,

and possible reserves estimated at 90 million barrels, with a potential of10-20,000 b/d. Production could start at 2,500 b/d around April 1976, whenthe first stage of the pipeline of the Chauk refinery is completed.

7. In 1975 the country's production declined to about 20,000 b/d, thoughby 1977 development of the new fields could boost production to 36,000 b/d, andto 40,000 b/d by 1980. Burma is seeking financial help for the development ofexisting fields, and has signed agreements with foreign companies to startexploration offshore. Aunong others Esso; Cities Service; a consortium of CFP,

Deminex and Agip; and a Japanese group consisting of Japan Petroleum DevelopmentCo., Japex, Mitsui, Mitsubishi and Kyodo, have started exploration along theArakan coast, the Gulf of Martaban, and the Bay of Bengal.

India 1/

8. Crude oil production in India is carried out by the state-owned ONGC

(Oil and Gas National Commission), Oil India Limited (50% Burma Oil and 50%

Government) and Assam Oil, a Burma Oil subsidiary. The country's productionof crude oil in 1974 stood at 152,900 b/d, of which ONGC accounted for almost

60% and Oil India for 40%. Assam Oil produced the remainder (330 b/d), from

its Digboi field.

9. ONGC's production comes mainly from the onshore Gujarat fields; and

Oil India's from the Nahorkatiya and Assam fields, also onshore. Offshore

exploration in the past two years resulted in the discovery of an oil-bearing

structure in the Gulf of' Cambay which could add 390 million barrels to the

country's proven crude oil reserves, estimated at 930 million barrels as of

January 1st 1975.

10. The Government's Fifth Plan has an onshore crude production targetof 230,000 b/d in 1978/79, of which 170,000 b/d (7h%) would come f'rom ONGC's

fields and the rema.inder from Oil India's and Assam Oil's fi.elds. In tche

latter, production is planned to remain constant at its 1973 level (6l,000 bId),or to decline slightly. Hence the whole of the planned increase in onshore

production is due to come from ONGC fields.

11. ONGC's target - an increase of 80,000 b/d over the 197h level - has

been set despite an expected decline in the output from its main producing field,Ankleshwar, from its current level of 60,000 b/d to around 4O,OOO b/d by 1980.The planned increase in onshore production is made up from higher output from

existing fields, mainly in Assam, and from new onshore fields.

12. In Assam, about 60 percent of the wells are not in production and

need workovers; increase in output from this state chiefly depends on the

installation of oilfield gathering and treating facilities and the expansion

1/ This section is largely based on the findings of a Bank study team whichvisited India at the end of 1973. See Henderson, P. D.: India: The

Energy Sector, IBRD9 1975.

ANNEX IPage 3

of pipeline capacity, together with the completion of the Bongaigon refinery.Development of the Galeki field, which may turn out to be a major producer,will also depend on how soon enough rigs capable of drilling to depths ofh,500 meters can be brought into the area. The Rudrasagar and Lakwa fields,also in Assam State, are scheduled for development over the next two years.Radrasagar has reserves estimated at 220 million barrels but has been operatingat less than 2,000 b/d for lack of transportation facilities. Oil is moved bytruck to the Gauhati refinery. In Gujarat, on the other hand, the main pro-duction problems relate to wax and water in the formation, and various schemeshave been studied to improve the recovery factor.

13. In general, the prospects of achieving the planned increases in outputfrom existing fields appear reasonably good, provided that ONGC's expenditureprogram is not unduly delayed by foreigh exchange problems, long delivery timesfor equipment, especially deep drilling rigs, and late completion of pipelinesand refinery facilities.

14. During 1974, Oil India resumed exploratory drilling in the Kharsang andNingu area. ONGC is ready to start drilling in the Kashmere Valley area onfour sites, two each in Baramulla and Ehatagram. On the basis of past perform-ance, in which long lead times have been required to carry out drilling programsand to install. gathering facilities, it seems unlikely that fields as yetundiscovered can make a contribution to production in the coming five years.Thus it is assumed here(taking due account of declining production in Ankleshwarfield)that onshore production may reach a level of around 205,000 b/d in 1977and 195,000 b/d in 1980. In 1975, crude oil production averaged about 165,000 b/d.

15. Offshore, actual plans for a first production stage after platformsare installed in the Gulf of Cambay call for an output of 20,000 b/d in 1976and 1977, increasing to around 200,000 b/d in 1980. ONGC is understood to beconsidering the use of a tanker to start oil liftings from Bombay High at aninitial rate of 3,500 to 5,000 b/d, at the end of 1975. Meanwhile, in otherareas of the continental shelf, ONGC began drilling for oil at Mandapami, thesouthernmost tip of the country, and drilling is continuing in Jaisalmer andRajasthan. In the Kutch and Bengal basins, seismic surveys have indicatedpromising oil structures.

Zaire

16. Zaire is expected to start producing oil by end-1975, at 25,000 b/dfrom two offshore fields, CGO and Mibale, discovered in 1971 and 1973 respec-tively. Combined reserves of the two fields have been estimated at 200 millionbarrels, and their potential output at 50,000 b/d. A third field - Moko -was discovered in 1973 and is now being appraised; it has been tested above1,300 b/d. At least one onshore field has been discovered - Kinsaki - whichtested between 300 and 600 b/d.

Middle Income Countries

Angola

17. The bulk of Angola's oil production comes from fields offshore Cabinda(where Gulf Oil is the single operator). The North, South and West Malongofields offshore Cabinda have combined reserves estimated at 1.1 billion barrels,-- A _--A..-A4 t_-.4. - 1.r non L /3 !_ n n71

ANNEXt IPage 1o

18. Between 1973 and 1974, 74% of the wells operating offshore Cabindawere put into artificial lift. This is expected to stabilize output fromMalongo North and South fields. Output from Malongo West could be boosted toabout 100,000 b/d through pressure maintenance operations (gas injection during1974 increased the average yield per well by 10 barrels daily), thus bringingtotal offshore Cabinda output from existing fields to about 150,000 b/d.

19. Between 1970 and 1972 Gulf made several field discoveries but notall have been considered co-mmercial. The Texaco consortium (Petroangol 50%,Angol 25% and Texaco 25%) has discovered fields at Essungo and Marine, 200miles southwest off Luanda, though their potential was riot disclosed-,and hasalso reported the discovery, in early 1975, of the San Antonio field with

an estimated potential of 75,000 b/d.

20. Onshore oil has been produced in Angola since 1955 by PetroangolanLd Petrofina. Output from onshore fields averaged 23,000 b/d in 1974. Inthat year production from Mulenvos and Quenguela North fields amounted to about6,000 b/d, and the Bento, Cabeca da Cobra and Quingvica fields averaged more

than 10,000 b/d. North Zombo field, discovered in 1973,started production in1974 and averaged 7,000 b/d. Except for production from Mulenvos and QuenguelaNorth, which has been declining, production from the other new onshore fieldsis expected to continue rising in the coming five years. Average output declineper onshore well in Angola is estimated at less than 1%.' Further field develop-ment would increase production fror. the newer fields to 19,000 b/d.

21. In 1975 output averaged 27,000 b/d from onshore Angola fields and

139,000 b/d from Cabinda fields. Output from Angola and Cabinda together isexpected to rise to about 200,000 b/d in 1977 and 225,000 b/d in 1980.

Bolivia

22. Bolivia's proven oil reserves at the end of 1974 were estimated at250 million barrels. Oil output in 19714 amounted to 45,000 b/d. The Caiguafield in the Tarija area started production in 1973 at an initial )4,000 b/d rate;

it has an estimated potential of 15,000 b/d. Principal oilfields in Boliviahave undergone repressuring operations which have permaitted a relatively sustainedyield. However, the country's oilfields are relatively small and - except for

Caigua - most of them have either reached or passed their maximum output.

23. Oil operations in Bolivia are conducted by YPFB, the national oilcompany. With a view to reversing the decline of oil production, it has adopted8. new exploration and production policy based on service contracts with foreignoil companies and has so far signed about 14 service contracts. An activeexploration program is underway, but it is too early to assess the scope fornew discoveries, and the current level of reserves appears only adequate tosupport production up to 60,000 b/d.

24. Crude oil output in Bolivia amounted to 42,000 b/d in 1975; that is a

15% decline over 1974.

ANNEX IPage 5

Congo

25. Crude oil reserves in Congo were estimated at 950 million barrels by

the end of 197L, of which over 50% have been proven to lie offshore in the

Emeraude Marine Field. However, the high viscosity of the crude and complex

geology may limit recovery to only 6% of the oil-in-place and hence the early

target of 100-200,000 b/d of production is not expected to be attained.

26. Production in 1974 was about 47,000 b/d. Elf-Congo is testing

discovery wells at Likouala, to the northwest of Emeraude Marine. The Loango

offshore field was discovered by Elf-Agip in 1972. Field development, originally

expected to start by the end of 1975, has been delayed and drilling work is not

likely to have been completed before mid 1978. The field is scheduled for water

injection from the outset. In 1977 Loango is expected to produce 6,000 b/d and

24,000 b/d in 1980. This level may be sufficient to offset the decline in output

from Emeraude Marine, which in 1980 is expected to deliver under half its peak

output of 1974.

27. In 1975 production averaged about 38,000 b/d from all fields. Overall,

the same is likely to be produced in 1977, rising to 45,000 b/d in 1980.

Egypt

28. At the beginning of 1975, Egypt's crude oil reserves were estimated

at 2.8 billion barrels. Production reached a peak in 1972 with the opening of

El Morgan, the country's major field, which has estimated reserves of over one

billion barrels. Since 1972, however, pressure in El Morgan has been declining.

Egypt's oil output in 1974, 147,000 b/d, was about 20,000 b/d lower than in 1973.

A water injection project now underway in El Morgan is designed to boost the

country's production to 150,000 b/d and hold it at that level for several years.

El Morgan is operated by Amoco in partnership with EGPC (Egypt Petroleum Co.) and

Gupco (Gulf of Suez Petroleum Co.). It was producing at 90,000 b/d in early 1976.

29. Neighbouring offshore fields under the same management include July

and Ramadan. The Ramadan field was discovered in 1974 anti has estimated reserves

of 300 million barrels; production started in December 1974-at 27,000 b/d and is

expected to reach 75,000 b/d by the end of 1975. The field has an estimated

potential of 100,000 b/d. July field was discovered in 1973 and has reserves

estimated at 700 million barrels. It was brought into production in April 1974

at an initial rate of 30,000 b/d and has an estimated potential of 150,000 b/d.

The two fields were producing at 90,000 b/d together in early 1976.

30. The Western Desert fields,1/ operated by Wepco, produced 33,000 b/d in

1974. Production from El Alamein has been declining and full depletion is

expected by 1980. Nipco's Razzaq field is believed to have a potential production

of 20,000 b/d, while Fapco's Abu-Gharadiq field is thought capable of producing

30,000 b/d. EGPC's Eastern Desert fields are currently producing around 30,000 b/d.

1/ El Alamein, Yidma, Meleiha, Umbaraka.

ANNEX IPage 6

31. The Sinai fields, output from which is now included in the 1977production estimates, are reported to be currently producing 75,000 b/d.Production from these fields is expected to continue declining until theirdepletion in the early 1980s.

32. In 1975, Egypt's crude oil production averaged about 230,000 b/d,excluding the Sinai fields, an increase of 56% over 1974. In early 1976 itaveraged 322,000 b/d, now including Sinai fields. The country's crude oilproduction is conservatively projected here at 450,000 b/d in 1977 and 530,000b/d in 1980 however, there is evidence to suggest that it could reach as muchas 1 million b/d by then.

Syria

33. Oil productiorn and refining in Syria is carried out by the Government-owned General Petroleum Co. Departing from its earlier policy, Syria hasrecently entered into service and production-sharing contracts with foreigncompanies for oil exploration and development. Oil reserves in existing fieldsare estimated at 2.8 billion barrels. Production was 123,000 b/d in 1974 and175,000 b/d in 1975. Part of the increase over 1974 comes from the Jebissahfield, brought into production in May 1975. Jebissah has estimated reserves of142 million barrels, enough to support an average output of 35,000 bid over 12years and up to 60,000 b/d.

34. Syria's output has been officially projected to increase to 300,000 b/din 1978 and 320,000 b/d in 1980. However, production from the country'sexisting fields may be :Limited to 250,000 b/d in 1977, and its proven endowmentof crude oil only appears sufficient to support a production level of up to300,000 b/d in 1980.

Higher Income CountriesArgentina

35. Crude reserves in Argentina were estimated to be 2.3 billion barrelsat the end of 1974. Oi:L production in Argentina is carried out by YPF, a state-owned oil company. Output averaged 421,000 b/d in 1974, a decline of 2% over1973. AboLt 90% of production came from fields, discovered before 1965, whosedecline rate has increased over the past three years. Recently announced plansfor secondary recovery (in 28 fields) could slow the decline rate in currentlyproducing fields, output from which amounted to 395,000 b/d in 1975,and could beabout 397,000 b/d in 1977 and 370,000 b/d in 1980. The discovery last year ofthe Puesto Rojas field in Malargue (Mendoza province) might add another 6,000 b/din 1977 and 25,000 b/d in 1980 when the pipeline to the Lunan refinery iscompleted, thus bringing the country's production to 403,000 b/d in 1977 and395,000 b/id in 1980.

Bahrein

36. Bahrein's oil production is from the onshore Awali field, discoveredin 1932 and operated by the Bahrein Petroleum Company (Chevron-Texaco). In1974 Bahrein acquired a 60% interest in BAPCO's production and refiningoperations. Remaining reserves in the Awali field amount to 360 million barrels.Its output was 68,500 b/d in 1973 from 215 wells and is declining by about 4%p.a. It is projected to fall to 60,000 b/d in 1977 and 55,000 b/d in 1980.

Annex IPage 7

The Awali oil, together with Saudi Arabian crude imported by pipeline fromDamman, is processed in BAPCO's 250,000 b/d refinery; the refined productsare mostly for export.

37. Bahrein also shares 50% of the revenues from interest in the off-shore Abu-Safah field between Bahrein and Saudi Arabia, discovered in 1963and operated by Aramco. All output is delivered by pipeline to Saudi Arabiaat about 120,000 b/d. After undergoing waterflood, the field's production isexpected to stabil ize at about that level from 1976 onwards. Output fromthis field is recorded in data for Saudi Arabia and not Bahrein.

Brazil

38. Oil exploration, development and refining in Brazil are carried outby the national oil company, Petrobras. In 1974 oil production averaged177,000 b/d and proven reserves were estimated at 780 million barrels at year-end.

39. The main onshore fields in Brazil are Agua Grande, Aracas, Buracica,Candeias, Dom Joao, Carmopolis and Miranga, the latter two located in Sergipe.Production has declined noticeably in Agua Grande, but secondary recoverytechniques have arrested the decline in other fields where production hasalmost stabilized. Although discoveries have been reported in the state ofEspiritu Santo, it is not expected that new onshore output will offset thedecline in established fields; and total onshore output may amount to about110,000 b/d in 1980.

40. Exploratory drilling along the shore in the past six years has resulte,in several discoveries: Dourado, Camorim, Caioba, Guaricema, Robalo and Mero, a.offshore Sergipe;and Alagoas and Ubarana offshore the Rio Grande do Nort(area. The production potential of the six fields in the Sergipe and Alagoas area!is estimated at about 50,000 b/d. Production from Guaricema started lastyear at 5,000 b/d. In 1974 Petrobras discovered the Garoupa field offshoreCampos; reserves have been estimated at 600 million barrels and the field maystart production in 1977 at about 40-50,000 b/d,rising to 200,000 b/d in 1980.Early in 1975 the Pargo field was found 12 miles from Garoupa. The CamposBasin discoveries have been reported as just two of 13 extremely favorableformations identified off the coast of Rio de Janeiro.

41. In 1975 tqtal production from onshore and offshore fields amounted to191,000 b/d. In 1977 and. 1980 it could rise to 230.000 b/d and 360,O00 b/d

respectively.

Brunei

42. Shell is the only company operating in Brunei. The country's crudeoil reserves are estimated to be about 2 billion barrels. In 1974, productionaveraged 197,708 b/d from four fields, 3 of which are located offshore.

Annex IPage 8

h3. Ampa is Brunei's largest offshore field and produced slightly morethan 104,000 b/d in 19740 Champion and Fairley fields averaged 30,000 and21,000 b/d respectively. Seria field, the country's only onshore field, added

37,,400 b/d. While production from Seria field is expected to continuedeclining, forthcoming production increases are expected from offshore fields.In 1975 Brunei's production dipped to 175,000 b/d due to technical difficulties

but is likely to reach 250,000 b/d in 1977, and 260,000 b/d in 1980.

Chile

44. The country's oil fields are located in a relatively narrow stripon either side of the Strait of Magellan. Exploration and production arecarried out by Enap, the state owned company. In 1975 the national oil policywas changed to allow Enap to enter into service contracts with private oilcompanies for oil exploration and development outside the Magellan region.

45. Oil reserves in Chile were estimated at 200 million barrels at the

end of 1974. Production declined at an average rate of 5.6% per annum in thepast ten years, and at 12% last year. Production in 1974 averaged 41,000 b/d,more than 70% of which came from 7 fields; Daniel, Daniel Este, Posesion,

Calafate, Cullen, Tres Lagos and Canadon, discovered between 1955 and 1962.

46. In 1973 Enap announced the discovery of a major oilfield offshorebetween Cabo Dungeness and Punta Del Gada, with reserves estimated at 470million barrels of oil, which indicates the possibility of 100,000 b/d potentialoutput. Since then little has been reported: Enap's financial constraintsand uncertain field economics (mainly due to geographical obstacles for the

requisite pipeline) have been given as reasons for the delay in developmentof the field.

47. At the current decline rate, onshore oil production includingnatural gas liquids could fall to 38,000 b/d in 1975, 35,000 b/d in 1977 and32,000 b/d in 1980. However, Enap appears confident about starting fielddevelopment offshore in 1976 from a platform currently under construction andadding enough oil output from the Magellan Strait to compensate for onshoredecline, thus sustaining a total output of 50,000 b/d from 1977 to 1980(39,000 b/d excluding natural gas liquids).

Colombia

48. The lack of substantial oil discoveries in Colombia in the last few

years resulted in intensified production from older fields. Explorationstagnated in recent years, partly because of the low prices paid for domesticoil bought for local consumption. Output fell from 232,000 b/d in 1970 to17h,000 b/d in 1974, requiring net oil imports of 14,000 b/d.

49. At the beginning of 1975 Ecopetrol - the state owned company - waspaying $1.64 per barrel to foreign and local contractors and operators. However,

in August 1975 the price from old fields was increased to $3.50 and that fromnewly developed fields to $6-7 depending on their depth and location.

Annex IPage 9

50. Colombia's crude oil reserves were estimated at 900 million barrelsin 1975. One-third of the country's crude oil output comes from the middleMagdalena Basin where the older fields are located. These include La Cira-Infantas, Palagua, Velazquez, Provincia and Payoa. Other Colombian producingareas are the Putumayo sub-basin and the western fringes of the Maracaibobasin (Rio Zulia and Tibu fields).

51. Despite expected increases in oil production from the Putunayo area,Colombian production is expected to fall to 128,000 b/d in 1977 and 96,000 b/din 1980. The decline could be slowed down if secondary recovery projects areimplemented on time. Production might instead fall to 150,000 and 135,000 b/drespectively. In 1975 it fell to 164,000 b/d. Four fields were recently foundin the eastern plains with proven recoverable reserves of 820 million barrelsand an estimated output'potential of 40,000 b/d; however, oil quality andtransport difficulties may limit production levels.

Malaysia

52. Malaysia's crude oil reserves were estimated to be 2.5 millionbarrels at the end of 197h. Until October 1974 production came entirely fromfields offshore Sarawak: Shell's West Lutong, Baram and Baronia fieldsand, more recently, Bakau field. The older Mira field onshore, was shut inlast year. Also under development are Takau and Bikar fields. Shell'sSarawak production in 1974 averaged 80,000 b/d, with 50,000 b/d coming fromBaram field and 22,000 b/d from Wlest Lutong.

53. In October Esso started to lift oil from its Tembungo field in Sabahat a combined rate of 5,000 b/d from two discovery wells. The facilitiesinstalled over Tembungo have a capacity for up to 18 wells. However, Tembungo'sliftings have remained at between 4-5,000 b/d since discovery, as operationson the field were temporarily suspended by Esso following disagreement withthe Government over the petroleum legislation introduced in 1974. Developmentof the Pulai field offshore West Malaysia by the same company has also beenpostponed.

54. Fields under development in Malaysia include Shell's South Furious,Samarang and Erb West oilfields in Sabah; the Conoco group's Sutong, Duyongand Anding structures in the Peninsula; and Esso's Pulai and Kikok fields.Esso's Tembungo is estimated to have a potential of 50-70,000 b/d; Samarang'spotential is estimated at 40,000 b/d, while Erb West is a smaller field withan estimated potential of 20,000 b/d.

55. At the beginning of 1975 the country's production amounted to115,000 b/d but averaged about 90,000 b/d for the whole year. Developmentdelays have occurred due to disagreements over the new petroleum legislation.The Petroleum Development Act of 1974 provides for the replacement of theconcession system with a system of production-sharing agreements. Oil companiesare at present operating without any permanent legal agreement with theMalaysian Government. Current negotiations may cause some delay in realizingpotential crude oil production from existing fields, although such delays shouldnot affect the 1977 target of 200,000 b/d. The 400,000 b/d target set for 1979may be attained in the early 1980 s. In 1980 a production level of 320,000 b/dappears likely to be attained.

ANNEX IPage 10

Mexico

56. Mexico is the largest oil producing country in Latin America andthe Caribbean. In 1974 it again became a net oil exporter, after almost 30years. In 1974 the output of crude oil, gas liquids and condensates averaged652,000 b/d, an increase of 23% over 1973. The change in Mexico's prospectsis largely the result of production. from the cretaceous fields of Tabasco and

Chiapas in Southeast Mexico where the first discovered well was completed in1972. Wells in this area yield an average of 5,000 b/d, whereas average wellyield for the rest of Mexico is 120 b/d.

57. Reserves of oil including liquids and condensate have been estimatedat slightly more than 3 billion barrels at the end of 1974, but this total does

not include the Reforma area reserves. In 1973 the Government ended a 15 yearlong freeze on domestic prices for refined products. This gave Pemex, thenational oil company, the necessary thrust to keep pace with the country'sincreasing demand.

58. Most oil producing areas in Mexico are in the states of Tamaulipas,

Vera Cruz, Tabasco and Chiapas. Fields offshore Tuxpan and Tampico contributedsome 60,000 b/d to Mexican output in 1973. However, the traditionally exploredareas in Mexico - the Gulf of Mexico strip - represent only 10% of the country'ssedimentary basin. By the end of 1974 the three new fields discovered in 1972in the southern states of Chiapas and Tabasco (Cactus, Sitio Grande and Samaria)

produced a combined output of 260,000 b/d. Three more fields (Nispero, Cunduacan,and Iride) brought into production in 1974 had a combined initial output of18,000 b/d. Output from fields in the states of Vera Cruz (including the Poza

Rica field) and Tamaulipas is expected to continue growing into the 1980s.

59. Incremental production in the coming five years could bring Mexico's

total oil output from 806,000 b/d in 1975 to about 1 million b/d in 1977 and atleast 1.2 million bid in 1980, including natural gas liquids and field condensate.

Oman

60. In 1974, crude oil production in Oman increased to an average ofabout 291,000 b/d from 97 wells. It comes from four fie-ds operated by

Petroleum Development Oman, originally owned by Shell (85%), CFP (10%) andPartex (5%); Oman has nlow entered into the participation arrangements typicalin the Arabian Gulf, acquiring a 25% share in January 1973 and increasing thisto 60% in January 1974. The Fahud-Natih and Yibal Shuaiba fields are thelargest, with a flow of about 113,000 b/d and 98,000 b/d respectively. Natih-

Natih and Huwaisa-Shuaiba yielded 49,000 and 43,000 b/d respectively. Thefields are undergoing pressure maintenance operations and by 1978 about halfthe output is expected to be artificially lifted.

61. Three fields discovered in 1972 in the Ghaba region entered production

in 1975; output was earlier expected to be at an initial 60,000 b/d and potential

about 80,000 b/d. The latest discovery, made in 1973, is a 30,000 b/d capacityfield to be put in production in 1976.

Annex IPage 11

62. With the contribution of the newer fields, total production in Omanis expected to reach its maximum in 1976, at a daily rate of 380,000 b/d.Thereafter, oil prospects remain uncertain; output is officially projectedto decline to 360,000 b/d in 1977 and 260,000 b/d in 1980. This decline rateseems steep, however: assuming no unforeseen geological problems, output couldbe sustained up to 305,000 b/d in 1980.

Peru

63. In 1974 oil production in Peru averaged 77,000 b/d and reserves wereestimated at 830 million barrels at the end of the year. Peru's oldest fieldsare in the coastal area onshore Talara, which has delivered over 800 millionbarrels of oil since commencement. Petroperu, the national oil company, isconducting a combined program of development drilling, well workover andsecondary recovery there aimed at maintaining output at the current 35,000 b/d.In addition, output from producing offshore fields approached the 40,000 b/dmark in 1974; development of the Humboldt field and the smaller Litoral yMirador and Providencia fields continues at rising yield. Production from theHumboldt and Talara area fields, however, is expected to decline after 1977.

64. Petroperu together with 29 foreign oil companies under contract hasbeen conducting an active exploration and development program concentrated onthe Oriente area. So far reserves there have been estimated at around 500million barrels. Of 28 wells drilled by Petroperu since the discovery of theCorrientes field in the Trompeteros structure (the largest in the country) 16have been productive and Petroperu has tested over 55,000 b/d of them.Discoveries by Occidental Oil have tested 30,000 b/d. The company's Shiviyacuwill start production before the end of 1975 at 10,000 b/d.

65. The trans-Peruvian pipeline is under construction and is expected tobe operational by mid-1977, transporting oil found in the Amazon Basin to thePacific port of Bayovar. Its capacity stands at 200,000 b/d and could bedoubled. However, this is unlikely to be necessary. There are indicationsthat the Oriente region may not be as prolific as earlier expected, and existingreserves may be only enough to support an output of 100,000 b/d over 12 years.Thirteen foreign oil companies are already due to relinquish their areasunder exploration by the end of 1975. The Oriente region is projected to yieldup to 100,000 b/d in 1977 and 130,000 b/d in 1980. Altogether, oil production inPeru amounted to 75,000 b/d in 1975 and is expected at most to be 170,000 b/d in1977 and 200,000 b/d in 1980.

Trinidad and Tobago

66. The decline in Trinidad's oil output was reversed as new offshorefields were brought into production in 1972. The country's production averaged187,000 b/d in 1974 compared to 139,000 b/d in 1970.

Annex IPage 12

67. Trinidad's older producing fields are concentrated onshore, and

offshore in the Gulf of Paria where the Soldado field, operated by Trinidad

Northern Area, was the country's main offshore producer until 197h. Onshoreproduction which in 197h reached a total of 53,000 b/d is expected to fallto 41,000 b/d in 1977 and 33,000 b/d in 1980, despite planned secondary andtertiary recovery schemes. Soldado is expected to produce 51,000 b/d in197h and may yield 37,000 b/d in 1977 and 30,000 b/d in 1980.

68. The main source of recent and expected output increases is the

southeast offshore area where Amoco is the main operator. Trinidad's south

eastern offshore fields (Teak, Galeota and Samaan) were the first of severaldiscoveries to be put in production. Combined output from the three fieldswas 75,000 b/d in 1974; proven reserves have been estimated at 180 millionbarrels. The Poui field entered production last year and delivered more than

1,500 b/d. Production from all southeastern offshore fields has been projectedto amount to 115,000 b/d in 1977 and 180,000 b/d in 1980, while explorationin other offshore areas is being actively conducted.

69. Total onshore and offshore production in Trinidad has been projected

to rise from 184,000 b/d in 1974 to 205,000 b/d in 1975 and up to 240,000 b/din 1980. This projection for 1980 includes 70,000 b/d from a block in theeast coast and may be son;ewhat optimistic. In this area, geophysical and

geological results have suggested the existence of crude oil reserves equi-valent to about half Trinidad's existing reserves, but drilling has only just

started. Accordingly, it; may be estimated that Trinidad's output might stay

at about 200.000 b/d in 1980.

Tunisia

70. Tunisia produced 86,000 b/d of crude oil in 197h, compared with

82,000 b/d in 1973. The increase was made up of imcremental output from new

fields, as output from existing fields has been falling in recent years. The

main field in Tunisia is El Borma, which produced 52,000 b/d in 197h, 30% lessthan 1973. Two smaller fields in the north, Doulebs and Tamesmida, which are

also on the decline, protduced above 5,000 b/d in 1974. Sidi el Itayem, a joint

venture of the Tunisian Government and CFP, discovered in 1971, producedaround 4,000 b/d, and its output is still rising. Sidi Behara (a CFP field)

is reported to have a potential of 12,000 b/d and came onstream in 197h. The

most promising new field appears to be Ashtart (Aquitaine - Elf) which started

producing offshore in 1973; it has estimated reserves of 300 million barrels

and is expected to flow at 25,000 b/d minimum and subsequently up to hO,000 b/d.

71. In 1975 production from all fields averaged 95,000 b/d. Theresults of recent exploration have been encouraging. In 197h, the Total -Amoco - Agip Group was conducting appraisal of its Isis field about 100 milesfrom the shore, and the Aquitaine-Erap Group completed a successful oil well

at Athirat, about 3 miles to the south of Ashtart field. However, recent

discoveries are not likely to affect production in 1977 to a significant extent.

With output from El Borma on the decline, Tunisia's crude oil production might

altogether amount to 100,000 b/d in 1977 and 120,000 b/d in 1980.

ANNEX IIPage 1

METHODOLOGICAL NOTES

I. Estimation of Capital'Requirements of the Energy Sectorin Non-OPEC Developing Countries

1. One of the purposes of this study is to assess the magnitude of the

capital investments that the non-OPEC developing countries will need to make

in order to meet their likely energy requirements over the coming five years.

2. The investment estimates were derived using historical capital-output

ratios for each energy sourcei!, adjusted for expected changes in the structure

of production (such as the increase in offshore oil operations relative to total

oil operations).

3. It was assumed that the energy industries in developing countries

operate at full capacity, and changes in capacity have thus been deduced from

changes in output.V/ The historical capital-output ratios for the different

energy sources have been estimated by relating total investment over a given

period of time to grcEs capacity additions over the same period. Gross capacity

additions include net increases and replacements of existing capacity. Replace-

ments were assumed to be a proportion P of the capacity installed at the beginning

of the periods under study. Though in a single project the percentage of capacity

that has to be replaced increases over time, for a combination of projects of

difi'erent vintages the percentages can be averaged out. Hence, given an average

rate of replacement, investments in capacity replacement will be larger, the

larger the initial capacity. Moreover, the larger the initial capacity, the

higher the cost per incremental unit of capacity.

!! Except for power, where the estimates of capital costs per Kw produced bythe Bank's Public Utilities Department were adopted.

2/ This is not the case for refining and pipelines,for which time-series ofcapacity are available.

ANIbT IIPac-e 2

4. In the case of refining and pipelines, P was assumed constant

over time. However, for crude oil and natural gasi/, P was assumed

dependent on the ratio of production to reserves. The higher this ratio

(i.e. the faster annual production proceeds, relative to the -rowth of

reserves) the greater the level of investment needed to maintain a given

level of output.

5. To estimate historical capital-output ratios for the petroleum

industry, data on investment were taken from the regional series for oil

and natural Ras contained in Chase Manhattan's annual reports.i/ These

were related to data on drilling and on output, on a sectoral basis, for

each country. A description of the sequence of steps follows.

Crude Oil

6. The Chase Manhattan data were disaggregated by country on the

basis of drilling statistics published yearly in World Oil, the Bulletin

of American Association of Petroleum Geologists and Offshore2/. World Oil

gives country statistics on the number of cil productive wells at the end of

a year and oil output per year in barrels. Each country's drilling effort

was calculated on the basis of the number and characteristics of wells drilled,

and expressed in onshore dry hole equivalents, according to the following

rules:

2/ As with any other exhaustible resource.

2/ See reference list.

3J See reference list.

gj/ Derived from the statistical reports of the Joint Association Survey,

1960-72. See reference list.

AN-IEX IIPage 3

l. The cost per foot of an oil productive well onshore is 30%higher than the cost per foot of a dry hole of the same depth;

2. The cost per foot of a gas productive well is twice the costper foot of a -as dry hole of the same depth;

3. The same percentage relationships apply to offshore drillingfor oil and -as;

)8. The cost per foot of a dry hole offshore is three times thecost per foot of a dry hole drilled onshore.

(The effect of depth on drilling costs was assumed as linear for this analysis.)

The results were then aggregated by region. The Chase Manhattan figures on

regional total investment in crude oil production, deflated to 1973 dollars,i/

were then broken down by country according to the share of each in the

regional drilling- effort.

7. The country investment estimates so derived were broken down into

investments in gas and oil, according to the shares of gas and oil in the

total number of productive wells, and allocating investment in dry holes to

each product on a pro-rata basis. Each country's total investment in oil

production during the period was then divided by its number of oil-productive

wells drilled over that period, in order to give the investment cost per

productive oil well.

8. Gross additions to oil prdluction capacity were estimated for each

country on the basis of output per well per year (given in World Oil). As

noted in para. h above, the proportion of gross additions to capacity that is

devoted to replacement depends on how fast capacity deteriorates, and this in

turn depends on the ratio of production to reserves, or the decline rate.

Replacement of capacity (RC), measured over a three year period, can be

written as:

'B y the Bank's Index of International Prices.

ANNEX IIPage4

RC = C0-C .e 3a C(1-e3 ) (1)

1Ehere CO= capacity in the first year; and a, the rate of capacity replacement,

reflects the decline rate. Net additions to capacity were calculated

by subtracting capacity in the first year from capacity three years

later. Gross additions to capacity (replacements plus net additions)1/

were related to investment cost per well in 1973 dollars.

Natural Gas

S9. The country estimates of investment in natural gas production were

related to countries' total gross capacity additions. For lack of data on gas

cutput per well, gross capacity additions (GCA) were estimated using

GCA = Ct t-1 (2)

(1 + a)

Where a is the rate of capacity replacement, and reflects the decline rate, and

GCA is expressed in millions of cubic feet.

10. Because natural gas is moved by pipeline, and pipeline construction

lead-times vary widely (from a few months to several years), total investment

in natural gas production was related to gross capacity additions summed over a

iive year period, i.e.

CGCA =Ct - t-5 (3)

(1 + a)5

Where t = 1973.

11. Capital-output ratios for natural gas by income group were estimated

as follows (in 1973 dollars per million cubic feet):

/ The results of the analysis of crude oil development costs are summarizedin Table 14 of the main text.

ANNEX IIPage75

1/$/MMcf

High income 685.o

Middle income 182.0

Low income 208.0

Crude Refining

12. Time series of refining capacity by country are given in the2/

International Petroleum Ehcyclopedia. The estimated capital costs per

incremental barrel per year were related to gross capacity additions by

country income group, to obtain investment estimates by income group. Capital-

output ratios for refining were estimated by region, using the formula:

GCA = _ t-5 (4)

(1 + a)

Where t = 1973; and a, the rate of capacity replacement, is assumed as 5%

p.a. The resulting cost per incremental barrel of refining

ccapacity is about $2.80, in 1973 prices.

Pipelines

13. Basic data were taken from the world pipeline surveys of International

Petroleum from 1966-72 (when the publication was discontinued), and the quarterly2/

reports published by Pipeline Industry. To disaggregate pipeline investments

by country, pipeline capacity was defined as the product of length and diameter

(miles by inches).

1/ The wide differences between country groups reflect the share of totalinvestment devoted to capacity replacement. The natural gas industryhas been established for longest in the higher income countries and isnewest in the middle income group.


ANNEX IIPage 6

14. Capacity in miles-inches was computed by country and by type of

product carried (crude oil, oil products, gas) for the years 1966 and 1972.

Chloice of a shorter period might have had misleading results, since pipeline-

laying takes, on average, one day per kilometer, and pipelines may extend up

to or over a thousand kilometers.

15. A 5% rate of capacity replacement was assumed, as for refining,

end gross capacity additions were estimated. using:

GGA = Cr_ _t - 6 (5)

(l + a)6

Wihere t = 1972. The regional investment totals were then assigned tc each

country according to its share of the region's gross pipeline capacity

additions, and the estimat;ed investment of each country was broken dowqn by type

of product carried, using the estimates of gross capacity additions.

16. Investments in pipelines for crude oil and gas,by country, were

related to the net increase in crude and gas pipeline capacity for that

country over the period, in order to estimate the capital-output ratio and the

pipeline development costs per additional barrel of oil and per additional

million cubic feet of gas transported. The results, expressed hy income group,

were as follows:

Country Group Crude Oil Natural Gas(Pipeline costs per (Pipeline costs per additionaladditional barrel) million cubic feet)

_________________--- US$ --------------(7975=10O)

High income .89 944.4

Middle income .92 547.6

Low income .42 195.0

ANNEX IIPage 7

Coal

17. The capital cost per incremental metric ton of coal produced in

developing countries was estimated at $20 (1973=100), using the capital unit1/

costs assumed by the Coal Board of India and U.S. Bureau of Mines studies2/

of the costs of coal mine development.

2. Estimates of Development Costs: Crude Oil and Natural Gas

18. The extent of capacity replacement was assumed to depend on the ratio

of production to reserves, which reflects the rate of production decline. This3/

section draws heavily on the pioneering work of Adelman and Bradley on the

costs of oil production. Following Adelman, field reserves (R) were defined

as cumulative output:b

R = qbe-at dt (6)0 I

Where q0 is the current output rate; a is the decline rate and b is the time

of abandonment. Since, by definition,

-at

qo e dt -q (7)0 a

a will approximate qo/Ro when b becomes sufficiently large.

19. Over its lifetime an oilfield yields a stream of income equal to the

volume of oil reserves times the value per barrel. If a field is to be

developed, the discounted value of net receipts (gross income less production

costs) must at least equal the investment. The condition can be expressed as:

1/ See P.D. Henderson, "India: the Eniergy Sector", IBRD, 1975.2' U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Basic Estimated Capital Investments and Operating

Costs for Underground Bibtminous Coal Mines", Information Circular 8641/74;and "Cost Analyses of Model Mines for Strip-Mining of Coal in the UnitedStates", Information Circular 8535/72.


ANNEX IIPage o

b rI A Zqt [1/( +i) (8)t=o_

Where I is the interest rate (or the opportunity cost of capital)-/ and Z

is net income per barrel, assumed to be constant. In continuous form:

b

r -rtI )Z q(t) e dt (9)

Where r is the natural logarithm of 1 + i.

At any time, the level of production is a function of the initial producticn

level and the production decline rate:

q(t) = qo.e (10)

and substituting (10) into (9),b( i Z -at -rt (11)Zqo .e .e dt.(1

20. This can be solved for Z*, the minimum required net income per

barrel:b

-(a + r)tZ* = I q e dt (12)

As I has been defined as the investment associated with a particular gross

increase in output, then Z* reflects the income per barrel required to bring

a unit increase in output.

21. Upon integrati(n of (12)

I(a + r)

-(a + r)b (13)

q 0 (1-e )

1/ i was assumed equal to 15% in development cost estimations.

ANNEX IIPage 9

which for a relatively large b, becomes

IZ* - (a + r) (14)

qo

where Z* is defined as the development cost per barrel and I/q is the capital-

output ratio as defined in Section I above.

22. A slightly different approach to that of Adelman and Bradley was

adopted for the actual estimation of Z ,the minimum acceptable net income per

barrel. The difference arises from the definition of I and q in (14) In the

present analysis, I is defined as the cost per productive oil well and q as

the yield per productive well, a formulation which allows the main factors

that affect the costs of producing oil, namely well productivity and well

costs, to be reflected. The latter, in turn, are determined by the relative

costs of oilfield machinery, depth, well location, success ratio, and type of

well. However, inaccuracy of data on the number of productive wells may bias the

estimates of I and Z .

3. Projections of Demand and Supply

23. The price and income elasticities of demand for fuels were estimated

on the basis of the relationship:

a bq* cP Y (15)

where: q = desired level of the demand for a fuel in specific units;

P = price per unit of the fuel in dollars of a base year;

Y = GNP in dollars of a given year;

a,b = price and income elasticities respectively.

ANNEX ITPage 10

Thj, ; ctual level of demand., however, will not necessarily equal the desired

level of demand, mainly because the response of intermediate consumers requires

adjustment in the capital stock which may demand some time. The adjustment of

the actual towards the desired level of demand is specified by:

(1)(1)

q _t q > (16)

i:n the above equation,X (a lag Koyck coefficient) takes values between 0 and

'L. The formulation of (JI6) implies that the smaller the value ofXk, the greater

Ls the adjustment made in the current period.

:?4. Combining equations (15) and (16):

q = -c P Y q (17)

Equation 17 can be written in logarithmic form to yield direct elasticity

coefficients on estimation:

lgq = (l-A) lgc + a(l-A) lgP + b(l-A) lgY + Xlgq_1 (18)

In (18), a(l-A) and b(l-X) are short-run elasticities and a and b are the

estimated long-run elasticities.

25. Medium term elasticities were assumed in this study to be the

arithmetic mean of the short and long term elasticity estimates.

Demand for Oil Products

26. A combined cross-section time-series analysis was made by income group.

Data on the apparent consumption of refined oil products were taken from

the U.N. J series, for the period 1960-73, and converted into barrels of oil

ANNEX IIPage 11

1/equivalent. Series of GNP, in 1972 dollars, were taken from the Bank's

National Accounts series. The price of Saudi Arabian Light crude, 34, f.o.b.

Ras Tanura was adopted as the international oil price, and the series was

converted to 1973 dollars using the Bank's Index of International Prices.

Sample Countries

Higher Income Middle Income Lower Income

Argentina Angola BurmaBrazil Bolivia Sri LankaChile Congo ZaireColombia Korea IndiaIsrael Morocco KenyaMalaysia Philippines PakistanMexico Syria BangladeshPeru Thailand SudanTrinidad Egypt TanzaniaTunisiaUrugua-

27. The notation and results were as follows:2/

C = oil consumption, in barrels per capita

GNP = gross national product, in 1972 dollars per capita

P = fob price of Saudi Arabian light oil

H, M, L = subscripts for higher income, middle income and lower income

countries

ln CXt - 3.156 + .557 ln GNPHt .060 ln Pt + .532 ln CHt-1 (19)(-6.8) (7.7) (-1.o8) (9.34)

R2 = .996 D.F. = 141 D.X. = 2.25

F = 2793.2

1/ Assuming a refinery fuel and loss factor of 5% in the middle and lowerincome and 7% in the higher income countries.

2/ Apparent consumption = Indigenous production + Imports - Exports - Bunkers.

ANNEX IIPage 12

In Cjft -2.91 + .h03 ln in .109 Pn Pt + .783 ln CMt-1 (20)(3.17) (3.53) (-1.13) (1h.2)

R2 , 994 D.F. 11l' D.W. 2.39

F = 1533

].n C],t -2.215 + .320 in GIIPLt - .05 1n Pt + .767 In CLt-1 (21)(-2.55) (2.99) (assumed) (12.13)

R2= .989 D.F. - 105 D.V14. = 2.64

F = 865.8

'Demand and Supply of Coal

28. Future demand in coal producing countries except India and Korea was

assumed equal to domestic coal supply plus imports of coking coal (the latter

were determined exogenously). To estimate the price elasticity of coal supply a

combined cross-section time-series analysis was made, using data for all coal

producing countries except India and Korea. A list of countries is attached.

Solid fuels production time series in metric tons were taken from the U.N.

J series for the period 1960-73. Current supply was regressed on past, supply

and the international coal price (i.e. the average value of United States coal

exports, f.o.b. Hampton Roads, deflated by the International Price Index).

Coal Supply: Sample Countries

MoroccoMozambiqueZaireSouth RhodesiaZambiaArgentinaBrazilChileColombiaMexicoPakistan

ANNEX IIPage 13

Installed Power Capacity

2g. To estimate the income elasticity of electricity demand, a combined

cross section time series analysis was carried out for the higher and middle

income groups. Current electricity generation in kilowatt hours per capita was

regressed on current income per capita and past electricity generation per

capita, over the period 1962-73. The sample of higher income countries included

Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, which account for 85',10 of the group's installed

capacity. Korea, Philippines, Egypt, Thailand, and Rhodesia make up the sample

of middle income countries, accounting for 80% of the group's installed capacity.

India, which accounts for 9h% of the lower income countries' installed capacity,

was taken to estimate this group's income elasticity of electricity demand.

In this case, current generation was regressed on GNP (in 1972 dollars) and

past generation over the period 1962-73. The long run income elasticity of

electricity demand was estimated to be 1.35, 1.85 and 2.95 in the higher,

middle and lower income countries, respectively. The corresponding medium

term elasticities were estimated at 1.15, i.60 and 1.80 for the same income

groups. All elasticities were found statistically significant by standard

tests.

30. Data on electricity generation were taken from the U.N. Energy series

J, and GNP series from the World Bankts National Account series. Installed

capacity by income group was projected as a function of tgeneration, assuming past

proportions.

Natural Gas Demand

31. The income elasticitv of the demand for natural gas was estimated

to be unity in the higher income countries. In middle and lower income

countries, the demand for natural gas was determined exogenously, on the

ANNEX IIPage 14

basis of currently known plans for capacity expansion. To estimate how far

demand for natural g,as in non-OPEC developing countries might be affected if

the price of oil declined to $7.00 by 1980, from its current level of $9.80

per barrel (1974=100), the sensitivity of gas pipeline construction plans to

changes in oil prices was estimated. Pipeline capacity was measured in

miles-inches. The estimate was corrected from observations of the percentage

of planned projects successfully completed in the past. Basic data were

obtained from issues of the world pipeline survey of International Petroleum

and Pipe Line Industry.i"

IT It was estimated that the elasticity of plans of construction of gas

pipeline capacity with respect to changes in oil prices is 0.25. However,

only 85% of past construction plans (in miles-inches) has actually been

completed in non-OPEC developing countries.

ANNEX IIIPage 1

NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INCLUDED IN THE ANALYSIS-/

I. LOWER INCOME COUNTRIES

A. EAST AFRICA C. MIDDLE EAST

Burundi 2/ Yemen AR

Rwanda 2/ Yemen PDR

Ethiopia D. EAST ASIA

Kenya Khmer Republic

Malagasy Republic Laos

Malawi 3/ Vietnam Republic

Somalia TimorSudan

E. SOUTH ASIATanzaniaSikkimUgandaMaldives

Zaire Afghanistan

Comoro Islands Bangladesh

B. WEST AFRICA Burma

Central African Republic Sri Lanka

Chad India

Dahomey NepalPakistanGambia

Guinea Bhutan

Mali F. OCEANIA

Mauritania W. Samoa

Niger G. LATIN AMERICA

Sierra LeoneHaiti

Togo

Upper Volta

1/ The analyses of demand for oil products, supply of coal and installedpower capacity were undertaken using separate samples. These are listedin Annex II, Section 3.

2/ From Year 1962 and on.

3/ From Year 1964 and on.

ANNEX IIIPage 2

II. MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES

A. EAST AFRICA D. MIDDLE EAST

Fed. of Rhodesia Nyas 1/ Jordan

S. Rhodesia 2/ Syrian A.R.

Mauritius E. EAST ASIA

Mozambique Korea Rep.

Seychelles Philippines

B. WEST AFRICA Thailand

Fr. Equatorial Africa Macau

Congo PR

Angola G. OCEANIA

Cameroon Br. Solomon Is.

Equatorial Guinea Papua-New Guinea

Ghana Tonga

Ivory Coast H. LATIN AMERICA

Liberia Bolivia

Senegal El Salvador

Cape Verde Is. Honduras

Guinea-Bissau Paraguay

St. Helena

C. NORTH AFRICA

Egypt

Morocco

1/ For Years 1950-63 includes: Malawi, S. Rhodesia, Zambia

2/ From Year 1964 on.

ANNEX IIIPage 3

III. HIGHER INCOME COUNTRIES

A. EAST AFRICA Wake Is. Trinidad & Tobago

Zambia 1/ Canton Is. Uruguay

Reunion Cocos Is.

Fr. Terr. of Afaars & Isaas GuadeloupeCook Is. Martinique

B. WEST AFRICA Cayman Is.Johnston Is. Cya s

Sao Tume and Principe U.S. Virgin Is.St. Helena Midway Is.

C. NORTH AFRICA Niue Is. Antigua

Tunisia Norfolk Is. Br. Virgin Is.

D. MIDDLE EAST Tokelau Montserrat

Israel Wallis Is. St. KittsSt. Lucia

Lebanon G. LATIN AMERICA,

Bahrein CARIBBEAN St. Vincent

Oman Argentina GrenadaBahamas Dominica

E.- FAST ASIA Barbados

Malaysia Belize Turks Is.

China, Rep. of Falkland Is.

Hong Kong Brazil French GuyanaSingapore Chile

Brunei Colombia

F. OCEANIA Costa Rica

Fiji Dominican Republic

American Samoa Guatemala

Christmas Is. Guyana

Fr. Polynesia Jamaica

Gilbert Is. Mexico

Guam Netherlands Antilles

Nauru Nicaragua

New Caledonia Panama

New Hebrides Peru

Pacific Is. Surinam

1/ From Year 1964 on.

ANNEX IIIPage 4

NET OIL EXPORTERS

LOWER INCOME MIDDLE INCOME HIGHER INCOME

Zaire Syria Bahrein

Egypt Oman

Bolivia Tunisia

Angola Mexico

Congo Trinidad & Tobago

Malaysia

Brunei

ANNEX IVPage 1

ANNEX IV TABIES:s ENtl RESOURCES OF NON-OPECD-IVaoPING COUNTRaE

1. Non-OPEC Developing Countries Hydro Resources

2. Non-OPEC Developing Countries Hydro and Nuclear Power Generation(High Income)

3. Non-OPEC Developing Countries Hydro and Nuclear Power Generation(Middle Income)

14. Non-OPEC Developing Countries Hydro, Geothermal and Nuclear PowerGeneration (Low Income)

5. Uranium Reesources

6. Thorium Resources

7. Reserves and Resources of Solid Fossil Fuels in Non-OPEC DevelopingCountries

8. Crude Oil Reserves by Income Group: 1974

9. Natural Ga Reserves in NODCa: 1974

Table 1: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING ODUNTRIESI HYDRO RESOURCESLi5TkLLEnD siD l!'S-sLhABLZ C;Lr^A01T

HIGH INODME MIDDLE INODME LOW INCOME

Country Annual Potential Country Annual Potential Country Annual PotentialGeneration Generation Generation(GWh) (GWh) (GWh)

Argentina 191,000 Angola 48,320 Afghanistan 18,000Barbados - Bolivia 90,000 Bangladesh 6,535Bahama Is. Botswana 8,952 Burma 225,000Bermuda - British Solomon Is. - Burundi -Belize 1,500 Cameroon 114,800 Khmer Rep. -Brazil 519,277 Congo P.R. 45,200 CAR 44,160Chilo 88,600 E. Guinea 12,000 Sri Lanka 4,720China Rep. 5,283 El Salvador 4,500 Chad 10,320Colombia 300,000 Ghana 15,551 Zaire 660,000Costa Rica 37,898 Honduras 2,400 Dahomey 7,168Cyprus - Ivory Coast 10,880 Ethiopia 56,o20Dominican Rep. Jordan - GambiaFiji - Korea Rep. 9,925 Guinea 25,600Guatemala 5,880 Liberia 30,000 HaitiGuyana 72,000 Mauritius 320 India 280,000Hong Kong - Morocco 3,000 Kenya 53,760Israel 360 Mozambique 45,160 Laos +Jamaica Papua New Guinea 121,670 Lesotho 2,600Lebanon _ Paraguay 30,000 Malagasy Rep. 320,000Malaysia 4,467 Philippines 19,595 Malawi 400Malta - Rhodesia 20,000 Mali 10,560Mexico 99,360 Senegal 17,600 Mauritania 6,oo0Netherlands Antilles - Swaziland 2,800 Nepal +Nicaragua 18,000 Syrian A.R. + Niger 28,800Panama 12,000 Thailand 22,584 Pakistan 105,000Peru 109,154 Egypt A.R. 15,000 Rwanda -Singapore _ Vietnam Rep. 28,143 Sierra Leone 12,000Surinam 1.626 Somalia 720Trinidad & Tobago - Yemen PDR -Tunisia 50 Sudan M48,ooUruguay 9,496 Tanzania 83,200Zambia 15,336 Togo 1,920

Uganda 72,000Upper Volta 48,000

________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Yemen A.R. _____

Sub total: 1,491,287 Sub total: 740,000 Sub total: 2,130,483

TOTAL ALL COUNTRIES 4,361 ,770

TOTAL WORLD 9,802,420

Notes: - denotes not reported+ denotes quantity unlmown.

Source: World Energy Conference, Survey of Ehergy Resources, 1974, pp. 187-9.

I~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~ , ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .3~~~~~~.j. . .- 0....5 ....

'a~~~~~~~~-~~~~-~~~~r Va~~i . .~ .~ . a... ... . . P . . .a.a.ga§ aa 811½ B BBB B B BIB B B 1 B B B B B~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~B.B.B B B .B B B B B .B.B.B.B.B.B.B

2g 68~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

H H H H . ... ...~~~~~8 Zi'~og 8 . .u 0.-. ~ 8

88 88 ~~§ 88, ~~ 88 l1l00108 115511115

~t ~ 88 88 8 8 8 88 88 , 8 , 8

- -~~~ 88 88 88 88 88

0 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

o no 28 ~~ 66 ,, I ~ ,,, I ~ * I A -ESI,9 I 888A8 8

-NO 1. -I E IAS ~SN N 2' -

2 8~~~~~ 88 88~~~ 88E 88 88B i 88A

III ~ ~ ~ i MON I ~ .15 05fN I-I 01 O 0 00 ~ I NI 8 ,

88 AA , AA, H *. .. ... ... . . .. ... .. . . .. ... .... . ..

U~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

a~~~~ pgWt IdB~ H KH2P-v-g E22 o

J.. A.,~~~~~~~~~22 Z~2 2

ANNEX IVpage 6

Table 5s URANIUM RESOURCES

LOWER COST RESOURCESI/ HIGHER COST RESOURCES 2/

--- Reasonably Assured Resources---F,nergy Content Reasonably assured and

Amount Non-Breeders Breeders Additional additional resourcesReS ource 5

(Tons) (Mill. Gwh) (MilL Gwh) (Tons) (Tons)

HICH INCOME 15,682 3.77 226 11,515 72,354

Argentina 12,665 3.04 182 7,820 18,105Brazil 1,869 0,45 27 1,944 2,588Colombia - .. - 51,000Mexico 1,148 0.28 17 1,751 578Uruguay - - - 83

MIDDLE INCOME - *- - - 32,350

Angola - - - 12,750Morocco - *-- 19,600

IkT INCOME 49,880 11.96 717 30,200 82,822

C.A.R. 8,100 1.94 116 8,100 _India - -- - 61,862Malagasy - - - 560Niger 40,000 9.59 575 20,400 20,400Zaire 1,780 043 26 1,700 _

TO1'AL NODCs 65,562 15_73 943 41,715 187,526

TO"'AL WORLD 984,474 228.90 13,739 820,726 2,218,748

1/ Less than US$ 30/kg.

2/ More than US$ 30/kg.

- denotes not reported.

Soirce: World Ehergy Conference Survey of Ehergy Resources, 1974, pp. 203-4.

ANNEX IVPage 7

Table 6: THORIUM RESOURCES

LOWER OOST RESOURCES 1/ HIGHER COST RESOURCES 2/Reasonably Assured Resources _

Energy Content Additional Reasonably assured andAmount Breeders Resources additional resources

(Tons) (Mill.Gwh) (Tons) (Tons)

HIGH INCOME 58,388 836 1,059,080 2,244

Brazil 58,388 836 1,059,080 -Uruguay - - _ 2,244

MIDDLE INCOME - - 294,500

Egypt - 294,500

LOW INCOME - -7 313,130

India _ 302,370Malagasy - 1,960Malawi - 8,800

TOTAL NODCs 58,388 836 1,059,080 609,874

TOTAL WORLD 321,793 4,616 1,406,355 1,017,388

1/ Less than US$ 30/kg.

2/ More than US$ 30/kg.

denotes not reported.

Source: World Energy Conference Survey of Energy Resources, 1974, p. 214.

ANNEX IV

Table 7: RESERVES AND RESOURCES OF SOLID FOSSIL FUELS Page 8IN NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1/

(In Megatonnes)

RESERVES 1/Economically 2/ TOTALRecoverable - Total RESOURCES 3/

HIGH INCOME 3,103 9,738 32,864

Argentina 100 155 555Brazil 1,790 3,256 3,256Chile 58 97 3,945China (Taiwan) 261 479 660Colombia 109 150 5,330Mexico 629 5,316 12,000Peru 105 211 6,964Zambia 51 74 154

MIDDLE INCOME 4,452 5,528 14,035

Botswana 506 506 506Egypt 13 25 25Korea 544 890 1,450Morocco 15 15 96Philippines 46 75 88Rhodesia 1,390 1,760 6,613Swaziland 1,820 2,022 5,022Thailand 118 235 235

LOW INCOME 13,217 25,864 88,000

Afghanistan - - 85

Bangladesh 519 780 1,491Buirma 7 13 286India 11,580 23,160 82,977Malagasy 39 78 92Malawi 38

Pakistan 172 804 1,941Tanzania 180 309 370Zaire 720 720 720

TOTAL NODCs 20,772 41,130 134,899

TOTAL WORLD 591,191 1,402,274 10,753,880

1/ Reserves denotes the fraction of resources that has been measuredand assessed.

2/ Economically recoverable reserves denotes the fraction of reserves

that is considered exploitable under present local economic conditions

using existing available technology.

3/ Resources denotes total measured quantities plus quantities that may

be inferred to exist.

Source: World Energy Conference, Survey of Eiergy Resources, 1974, p. 61.

ANNEX IVPage 9

Table 8: CRUDE OIL RESERVES BY INCOME GROUP: 1974

(In Millions of Barrels)

197h(end of year)

HIGH INCOME 17,555

Argentina 2 ,459Bahrain 360Brunei 2,000Brazil 779Chile 210China (Taiwan) 19Colombia 627Malaysia 2,700Mexico 3,087Oman 3, 300Peru 830Trinidad & Tobago 651Tunisia 533

MIDDLE INCOME 1o,646

Angola 1,409Bolivia 216Congo 950Egypt 2,761Morocco 1Syria 2,776

LOW INCOME 1,073

Burma 117India 926Pakistan 30Zaire 200

TOTAL N4ODCs 23,381

TOTAL WORLD 556,177

Source: World Oil, August 15, 1975, p.44

ANNEX IVPage 10

Table 9: NATURAL GAS RESERVES BY INCOME GROUP: 1974.

(In Billions of Cubic Feet)

1974

(end of year)

HIGH INCOME 40,353

Argentina 7,095Brazil 927Chile 2,586China (Taiwan) 1,067Colombia 1,519Malaysia 11,400Mexico 11,185Peru 1,320Trinidad & Tobago 3,254

MIDDLE INCOME 30,158

Angola 1,779Bolivia 4,659Brunei 6,800Congo 6,330Egypt 5,000Morocco 16Syria 2,686Thailand _Tunisia 2,888

LOW INCOME 18,200

Burma 284India 2,396Pakistan 15,520

TOTAL NODKs 88,711

TOTAL WORLD 2,146,304

Source: World Oil, August 15, 1975, p.44

ANNEX VPage 1

APPNIX TABIES: PRIMARY ENERGY OF NON-OPEC DEVEIDPING

COUNTRIES

1. Non-OPEC Developing Countries Consumption of Primary Energy, 1955-1973

2. Production of Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping

3. Net Eb rgy Imports of Non-OPEC Developing Countries

4. Non-OPEC Developing Countries Inland Oil Consumption,1955-1973

5. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Production of Crude Oiland Natural Gas liquids, 1955-1974

6. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Regions: Production of Crude Oil andNatural Gas Liquids, 1955-1974

7. Net Oil Imports of Non-OPEC Developing Countries, 1955-1973 (including13 Net Exporting and Four Refining Countries)

8. Net Oil Exports of 13 Non-OPEC Developing Countries, 1955-1973

9. Net Oil Imports of Four Export Refining Countries, 1955-1973

10. Net Oil Imports of Non-OPEC Developing Countries, 1955-1973 (excluding13 Net Exporting and Four Refining Countries)

11. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Consumption of Solid

Fuels, 1955-1974

12. Non-OPEC Daveloping Countries by Rbgions: Consumption of Solid Fuels,1955-1974

13. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Production of Solid

Fuels, 1555-i974

14. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Regions: Production of Solid Fuels,1955-1974 -

15. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Net Imports of SolidFuels, 1955-1974

16. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Consumption of NaturalGas, 1955-1974

17. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Regions: Consumption of Natural Gas,1955-1974

18. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Groupings Production of Natural Gas,1955-1974

19. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Regions: Production of Natural Gas,1955-1 974

ANNEX VPage 2

20. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping and Regions: NetImports of Natural Gas, 1955-1974

21. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Consumption ofPrimar Electricity, 1955-1974

22. Non-OPEC Developinig Countries by Regionas Consumption of PrimaryElectricity, 11955-197 4

23. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Production ofPrimary Electricity, 1955-1974

24. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Regionss Production of PrimaryElectricity, 1955-1974

25. Non-OPEC Developing Countries by Income Grouping: Net Imports ofPrimary Electricity, 1955-1974

APPENDIX TABLE 1: NON-OPEC DEVEWPINOG 0UNTRIES' OONSUMIPTION OF PRIMARY ENERMY, 1955-1973

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

(------------------------------------ 'I Ob/d ----------------------------------- )

A. T;)TAL NON-OPEC DEVELOPING OOUNTRIES

Oil 1,628 2,146 2,902 4,576 5,691Solid Fuels 785 1,047 1,350 1,468 1,570Natural Gas 76 155 296 497 634Primary Electricity 5 90 14 232 283

Total 2,539 3,438 4,691 6,773 8,178

High Income

Oil 1,128 1,467 1,925 2,933 3,763Solid Fuels 165 192 240 253 253Natural Gas 75 144 261 424 524Primary Electricity 36 60 0 138 174

Total 1,404 1 ,863 2,516 3,7741 4714

Middle Income

Oil 245 319 467 849 1,028Solid Fuels 89 131 179 219 242Natural Gas - - 2 4 5Primary Electricity 4 11 18

Total 338 -Ii1r

Low Income

Oil 255 360 510 794 900Solid Fuels 531 724 931 996 1,075Natural Gas 1 11 33 69 105Primary Electricity 10 19 35 61 70

Total 797 1,114 1,509 1,920 2,150

B. MOTAL NET OIL EXPORTERS

Oil 346 501 629 853 1,047Solid Fuels 30 30 39 52 67Natural Gas 52 82 127 212 241Primary Electricity 8 14 214 142 46

Total 4 627 819 1,159 1,401

Nigh Income

Oil 229 349 437 638 801Solid Fuels 19 25 28 42 61Natural Gas 52 82 125 209 237Primary Electricity 6 lO 16 27 29

Total 306 16 91 1,131

Middle Income

Oil 109 144 184 202 227Solid Fuels 2 1 6 6 1Natural Gas - - 2 3 4Primary Electricity - 1 L 10 11

Total 111 146 196 221 243

Low Income

Oil 8 8 8 13 16Solid Fuels 9 4 5 4 5Natural Gas - - - - -Primary Electricity 2 4 5 6

Total 19 _T 17 22 27

C. TOTAL NET OIL IMPORTERS

Oil 1,282 1,645 2,273 3,723 4,645Solid Fuels 755 899 1,311 1,414 1,503Natural Gas 24 73 171 288 397Primary Electricity 73 119 194 241

Total 2, 2,690 3,874 5,619 6,786

High Income

Oil 899 1,118 1,488 2,295 2,959Solid Fuels 146 167 212 211 192Natural Gas 23 62 136 215 287Primary Electricity 10 50 74 11 144

Total 1 09_ 1,397 1,910 2,832 3,582

Middle Income

Oil 136 175 283 647 801Solid Fuels 87 12 173 212 241Natural Gas - - 2 4 5Primary Electricity 2 7 . 14 28

Total 225 194 472 891 i,3+1

Low Income

Oil 247 352 502 781 885Solid Fuels 522 720 926 991 1,070Natural Gas 1 11 33 69 105Primary Electricity 8 16 _1 5$ 64

Total 778 1,099 1,492 1,896 2,124

Source: UN Series J "World Ehergy Supplies" No. 18

APPINDI1 TABLE 2 FRODUCTION OF NON-OPEC DEVELOPING OOUNTRIES BY INOOME GROUPS

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974.

--O-PI O B-- --------------------------- -000 b/d ------------------------------ )A. TOTAL NON-OPEC DLVELOnPmG O3UNTRIES

Oil 771 1,138 1,546 2,967 3,185 3,291Solid Fuels 732 998 1,314 1,4b2 1,510 1,619Natural Gas 66 169 317 556 703 875Primary Electricity 50 89 lb2 232 231

Total 1,69 2,394 3,319 5,197 5,679

High Income

Oil 710 1,034 1,313 2,279 2,485 2,578

Solid Fuels 128 151 192 201 209 215Natural Gas 65 158 282 439 518 668

Primary Blectricity 36_ 9 86 1 1Total 939 1,bo2 1,873 T,02 3,3_2

Middle Income

Oil h4 76 149 522 522 532

Solid Fuels 72 131 195 220 236 263Natural Gas - - 2 4 33 45

Primary Electricity b 10 21 31 41Total 120 217 67 78 832

Low Income

Oil 17 28 8b 166 178 181

Solid Fuels 532 716 927 1,021 1,065 1,1l12Natural Gaa 1 11 33 113 152 162Primary Electricity 10 20 35 61

Total 560 775 1,079 1i 34

B. TOTAL NET OIL EPORTERS

Oil 495 624 776 1,799 1,976Solid Fuels 24 26 29 b1 58Natural Gas 43 97 148 228 289

Primary Electricity e 14 24 42 46Total 570 761 977 2,110 2,__9

High Income

Oil 453 549 630 1,278 1,455Solid Fuels 18 21 27 40 56Natural Gas 43 97 146 225 258 390

Primary Electricity 6. 9 16 2 2Total 520 679 _i 1,570 1,798

Middle Income

Oil 42 75 146 521 521Solid Fuels - - - -Natural Gas - - 2 3 31 . 44

Primary Electricity -- 1 b 10 . 11Total 1.2 76 152 534 .

Low Income

Oil - - - -

Solid Fuels 6 2 2 1 2Natural GasPrimary Electricity 2 6


Oil 276 514 770 1,168 1,209Solid Fuels 708 972 1,285 1,401 1,152

Natural Gas 23 72 169 328 414Primary Electricity 70 235

Total 1,0L 9 1,633 2,342 3,07 3,310

High Income

Oil 257 485 683 1,001 1,030Solid Fuels 110 127 165 161 153Natural Gas 22 61 136 214 260Primary Electricity 1050106 i4

Total 419_ 723 1RO _ 1,482 ____

Middle Tncome

Oil 2 1 3 1 1

Solid Fuels 72 131 195 220 236 263Natural Gas - - - 1 2 1

Primary Electricity 17Total 74 1 215 250 9

Low Income

Oil 17 28 84 166 178 181

Solid Fuels 526 714 925 1,020 1,063Natural Gas 1 11 33 113 152 162

Primary Electricity 8 16 31 56 64Total 552 769 1,073 1

Source: UN Series J 'World Energy Supplie"l No. 18

APPENiDx TA8E1 3 : N ER IIEbY 14ORTS OF NONw-OPE DnEvaoPNo COUNTRIES

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

(---'-o-----o-------- -000 b/d - --- --- __- ------

A. TOThLNON-OPEC DYELOPDIG OW1NTRI19

Oil. 875 l1o,1 i,368 1,598 2,672Solid Fuels 59 52 44 :62 60Natural Gas 10 -lb -21 -60 -66Primary Electricity - 1 _..- -

Total 944 1,057 t,39t 2,

High Income

Oil 1.3h 4"3 62o 652 1t,437Solid Fuels 41 42 50 53 LbNatural Gas 10 -1t -21 -15 7Primary Electricity - 1 4 5 4

Total 4 B 4 2 r 3i

Middle Income

Oil, t 202 242 320 317 509Solid Fuels 19 1 -i5 -1 6Natural Gas - - - - -27Primary Electricity _1 - -2

Total 221 244 302 3TV

low Income

Oil 239 333 428 629 726Solid Fuels -1 9 9 10 10Natural Gas - - - -45 -46Primary Electricity -- 1

Total 238 341 _3+ 79_6

B. TOTAL NET OIL El)RTERS

Oil -135 -113 -150 -957 -851Solid Pmele 5 5 11 12 8Natural Gas 10 -14 -21 -15 -49Primary Electricity -t 1 -

Total -129 -120 -159 - S 9

High Incone

Oil -210 191 -196 -652 -574Solid Puele I I 1 3 5Natural Gas 10 -t4 -21 -15 -21Primary Electricity - I - - 1

Total -199 -203 -216

Middle Income

Oil 67 70 37 -319 -293Solid Fuels 1 1 5 7 0Natural Gas - - - - -27Primary Electricity _2 0

Total 63 71 42 -312 -320

Low Income

Oil 8 8 9 1b 16Solid Fuels -3 3 4 3 3Natural Gas - -Primary Electricity _ 1 1

Total 11 1 2


Oil 1,010 1,131 1,518 2,555 3,523Solid Fuels 53 L8 73 51 53Natural Gas - - - -is5 -19Primary Electricity 1 1 1

Total 1,063 179tS52,56 356

High Incomr

Oil 644 634 816 1,304 2,011Solid Fuels 41° h1 48 51 39Natural Gas - - - - 27Primary Electricity -

Total 68458 1 O 27o

Middle Income

Oil 135 172 283 636 802Solid Fuels 17 - 20 -8 7Natural Gas -Primar Electricity _ _1 -1

Total 152 171 303 628 bO1

Low Income

Oil 231 325 b19 615 7t1)Solid Fuels -4 7 5 8 7Natural Gas - - - -45 -46Primary Electricity - I

Total 227 333 h24 578 671

Note: Set exports are denoted by negative sign, and net imports by positive sign.

Source: EN Series J World Ehergy Supplies No. 18.

Appendix Table 4: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES - INLAND OIL CONSUMPTION, 1955-73

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973---------------------------------- '000 b/d -------------------------

All. Non-OPEC Developing Countries

Figh-income 1,128 1,467 1,925 2,933 3,763Fiddle-income 245 319 467 849 1,028Iow-income 255 360 510 794 900Total 1,628 2,146 2,902 4,576 5,691

13 Net Oil Exporting Countries

High-income 229 349 437 638 804Middle-income 109 145 184 202 227Iow-income 8 8 8 13 16

Total 346 502 629 854 1,047

4 Export Refirmng Countries

All high-income 186 134 172 357 455

Other Net Oil Importing Countries

High-income 713 984 1,316 1,938 2,504Middle-income 136 174 283 647 801Iow-income 247 352 502 781 885Total 1,096 1,510 2,101 3,365 4,189

All Non-OPEC Developing Countries

latin America and Caribbean 970 1,322 1,620 2,422 3,028Niddle East 131 163 227 262 329North Africa 127 148 191 199 244Africa South of Sahara 89 122 208 285 322South Asia 136 204 312 484 582East Asia 172 180 331 901 1,153Oceania 3 5 10 18 28Cthers 1 1 3 4 5Total 1,628 2,146 2,902 4,576 5,691

13 Dil Exporting Countries

Latin America & Caribbean 207 315 367 523 644MLddle East 24 27 41 82 112NDrth Africa 99 120 157 149 169ACrica South of Sahara 10 15 19 33 39East Asia 5 25 45 67 83Total 346 502 629 854 1,047

4 Export Refining Countries

Caribbean 119 124 154 286 327East Asia (Singapore) 67 10 18 71 128

Total 186 134 172 357 455

Other Oil Importing Countries

Latin America & Caribbean 644 883 1,099 1,613 2,057Middle East 107 136 186 180 217NDrth Africa 28 28 34 50 75Africa South of Sahara 79 107 189 252 283S Duth Asia 136 204 312 484 582East Asia 167 145 268 763 9420seania 3 5 10 18 28Obhers 1 1 3 4 5

Total 1,096 1,509 2,101 3,365 4,189

Note: Inland oil consumption includes refinery fuel and loss incurred in processing crude oil within thecountry. It excludes bunkers which are treated as an export.

Sourc'i: UN Series J 'World Energy Supplies" No. 18

APPENDIX TABLE 5 : NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING: PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1975

---------------- million metric tons ---------------------- ) -------------- '000 b/d of oil equivalent ---------------------- )

High-income 36.2 52.5 66.0 113.8 123.1 127.3 710 1034 1313 2279 2485 2586 2722Middle-income 2.3 4.0 7.7 26.9 26.5 27.2 44 76 149 522 522 532 651Low-income 0.8 1.4 4.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 17 28 84 166 178 181 193

Total 39.3 57.9 77.8 148.8 158.2 163.3 771 1138 1546 2967 3185 3299 3566

High-incomeLatin America 29.3 -45.4 59.0 77.1 80.0 86.9 570 889 1168 1526 1609 17414 1875Middle East 1.5 2.4 3.0 25.0 23.7 23.9 30 48 61 509 473 478 478North Africa - - - 4.2 3.9 4.1 _ _ - 87 82 87 95

East Asia 5.4 4.7 4.1 7.6 15.5 13.4 111 97 83 158 322 278 274

36.2 52.5 66.o 113.8 123.1 127.3 710 1034 1313 2279 2485 2586 2722Middle-income

Latin America 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 2.2 2.1 8 10 9 23 47 15 42Riddle East - - - 4.2 5.5 6.5 - - - 87 105 123 175North Africa 1.9 3.4 6.6 16.5 8.5 7.4 36 64 125 312 168 145 230Africa South of Sahara - 0.1 0.7 5.1 10.2 11.2 - 2 14 99 200 219 204

2.3 4.0 7.7 26.9 26.5 27.2 44 76 149 522 522 532 651Low-income

Africa South of Sahara - - - - - - - - - - - - 2South Asia 0.8 1.4 4.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 17 28 84 166 178 181 191

Total 0.8 1.4 4.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 17 28 84 166 178 181 193Total 39.3 57.9 77.8 148.8 158.2 163.3 771 1138 1546 2967 3185 3299 3566

Source: UN Series J "World Energy Supplies" No. 18

APPENDIX TABLE 6: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY REGIONS: PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1975

--------------- million metric tons -------------------- (- --- - '000 b/d of oil equivalent ----------------- …-----

Latin America & CaribbeanMexico 12.7 15.0 18.2 24.4 26.0 32.5 245 293 355 478 527 653 806Trinidad & Tobago 3.5 6.o 6.9 7.2 8.6 9.5 67 114 134 140 167 184 205Argentina 4.4 9.1 13.9 20.2 21.8 21.4 84 174 268 390 430 422 395Brazil 0.3 3.9 4.5 7.9 8.2 8.9 5 78 94 167 175 189 191Bolivia 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 2.2 2.1 8 10 9 23 47 45 42Chile 0.3 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 8 21 45 42 47 41 37Colombia 5.5 7.6 10.2 11.6 9.7 8.9 109 153 204 231 189 174 164Peru 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.9 53 55 66 75 72 79 75Other 0.* - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 2 - 2 4 2 2 2

29.7 45.9 59.4 78.2 82.2 89.0 578 898 1177 1550 1656 1789 1917

Middle EastBahrein 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 30 45 57 76 68 68 61Oman - - - 16.6 14.6 14.5 - - - 340 293 291 342Syria - - - 4.2 5.5 6.5 _- - 87 105 123 175Israel - 0.1 0.2 4.6 5.7 6.0 - 2 4 91 112 119 75

1.5 2.4 3.0 25.0 29.2 30.4 30 47 61 594 578 601 653North Africa

Egypt 1.8 3.3 6.5 16.4 8.5 7.4 34 63 123 310 168 145 230Tunisia - - - 4.2 3.9 4.1 - - - 87 82 87 95Morocco 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - 2 2 2 1 1 -

1.9 3.4 6.6 20.6 12.4 11.5 36 65 125 398 251 231 325

Africa South of SaharaAngola - 0.1 0.7 5.1 8.2 8.7 - 1 13 99 158 168 166Congo 0.1 0.1 - 2.1 2.5 _ 1 2 - 42 51 38Zaire . - - - - - 2

- 0.1 0.7 5.1 10.2 11.2 _ 2 15 99 200 219 206

South AsiaIndia 0.3 0.5 3.0 6.8 7.2 7.5 7 9 62 139 149 156 165Pakistan 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 6 7 11 10 8 9 6Burma 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 4 11 11 16 20 17 20

0.8 1.4 4.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 17 28 84 166 178 181 191East Asia

Brunei 5.4 4.7 4.0 6.7 11.1 9.6 181 96 82 138 228 193 ) 269Malaysia 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 4.3 3.8 1 1 1 17 91 81)Taiwan - - - 0.1 0.1 0.2 - - - 2 3 4 5

5.4 4.7 4.1 7.6 15.5 13.6 110 97 83 158 322 278 74

Total:Non-OPEC Developing 39.3 57.9 77.8 148.8 158.2 163.3 771 1138 1546 2967 3185 3300 3566

Source: UN Series J "World Ehergy Supplies" No. 18.

Appendix Table 7 : NET OIL IMPORTS OF NON-OPEC DEVEIDPING COUNTRIES, 1955-73

(INCLUDING 13 NET EXPORTING AND FOUR REFTNING ODUNTRIES)

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

^--------- - -- --_ million metric tons ------------ -------------------- '000 b/d ----------------------By Income-Grouping

High-income 20.5 20.9 29.0 30.0 68.4 434 443 620 652 1,437Middle-income 9.9 12.0 16.0 15.1 24.9 202 242 320 317 509Low-income 12.0 16.7 21.4 31.1 35.7 239 333 428 629 726

42.4 49.6 66.4 76.2 129.0 875 1,018 1,368 1,598 2,672By Type of Oil

Crude Oil 65.6 73.7 121.0 152.4 221.1 1,308 1,472 2,420 3,045 4,425Refined products -14.4 -11.15 -41.3 -58.5 -71.1 -268 -214 -799 -1,110 -1,353Bunkers -8.8 -12.6 -13.3 -17.7 -21.0 -165 -240 -253 -337 -400

42.4 49.6 66.4 76.2 129.0 875 1,018 1,368 1,598 2,672By region

Latin America & Caribbean 18.7 19.5 20.3 38.1 69.6 403 419 449 828 1,470Middle East 5.1 5.9 8.3 -16.4 -12.9 99 115 167 -335 -252North Africa 4.4 4.0 3.2 -10.4 -0.1 91 83 65 -194 -3Africa south of Sahara 4.9 6.8 10.2 9.6 6.2 98 134 195 194 140South Asia 5.8 8.9 11.4 16.0 20.4 119 178 231 319 407East Asia 3.3 4.1 12.4 38.0 43.7 61 83 248 759 867Oceania 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 3 5 10 23 38Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1 1 3 4 5

42.4 49.6 66.4 76.2 129.0 875 1,018 1,368 1,598 2,672Stock Increase(+)/Decrease(-)

High-income 16 10 7 -2 159Middle-income 1 - 1 -10 2Low-income 1 2 2 1 3

18 12 10 -11 164

Appendix Table 8 : NET OIL EXPORTS OF 13 NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, 1955-73

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

-------------- million metric tons --------------- -- '_----------- 1000 b/d ------ ________________-

By Income Grouping

High-income -10.5 -10.0 -10.6 -32.8 -29.4 -210 -191 -196 -652 -574Middle-income 3.3 3.5 1.8 -16.5 -15.1 67 70 37 -319 -293Low-income 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 8 8 9 14 16

Total -6.8 -6.1 -8.3 -48.8 -43.7 -135 -113 -150 -957 -851

By Type of Oil

Crude oil 7.4 12.2 22.5 -17.2 -19.9 143 243 449 -348 -404Refined Droduct -11.6 -15.1 -27.8 -28.3 -20.7 -229 -296 -542 -547 -389Bunkers -2.6 -3.2 -3.0 -3.3 -3.1 -49 -60 -57 -62 -58

-6.8 -6.1 -8.3 -48.8 -43.7 -135 -113 -150 -957 -851By Region

Latin America & Caribbean -5.4 -5.2 -7.6 -7.9 -2.1 -95 -92 -136 -136 -18Middle East -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 -20.8 -18.2 -8 -19 -16 -425 -358North Africa 3.2 2.9 1.7 -13.0 -3.8 64 57 33 -244 -77Africa south of Sahara 0.5 0.7 0.2 -3.4 8.3 10 13 6 -67 -161East Asia -4.9 -3.5 -1.8 -3.8 -11.3 -106 -72 -37 -85 -237

-6.8 -6.1 -8.3 -48.8 -43.7 -135 -113 -150 957 851By Countries

Mexico -2.5 -o.6 -2.0 -1.2 6.2 -40 -.6 -32 -12 140

Trinidad & Tobago -2.8 -4.5 -5.6 -6.1 -6.8 -54 -84 -103 -112 -126Bolivia -0.1 -0.1 - -o.6 -1.5 -1 -2 -1 -12 -32Bahrein -0.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.7 -2.1 -18 -38 -38 -50 -38Oman - - - -16.1 -13.0 - - - -331 -262Syria 0.5 1.0 1.1 -2.0 -3.1 10 19 22 -44 -58Tunisia 0.4 0.5 0.7 -3.0 -2.4 8 9 14 -61 -51Fgypt 2.8 2.4 1.0 -10.0 -1.4 56 48 19 -183 -26Angola 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -4.2 -7.2 2 4 -3 -82 -138Congo - 0.1 - 0.1 -1.9 - 1 - 2 -39Zaire o.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 8 8 9 13 16Brunei -5.2 -4.6 -3.9 -6.6 -11.0 -108 -94 -81 -137 -227Malaysia 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 -0.3 2 22 44 52 -10

Total -6.8 -6.1 -8.3 48.8 -43.7 -135 -113 -150 -957 -851

Stock Increase(+)/Decrease(-)

High-income 15 10 -3 -12 78Middle-incomeLow-income _____

15 10 -3 -12 78

Note: Net exports are denoted by negative sign, and net imports by positive sign.


Appendix Table 9 NET OIL IMPORTS OF FOUR EXPORT REFINING ODNMTRIES, 1955-73

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

-- -- million metric tons --------------- --------------------- '000 b/d --------------------

4 Export Refining CountriesCrude oil 42.2 38.0 43.1 74.6 106.6 843 759 862 1,492 2,133Refined products -30.4 -26.2 -29.3 -50.5 -74.7 -592 -515 -578 -987 -1,458Bunkers -3.-4 -5.8 -6.o -7.0 -8.4 -66 -109 -110 -128 -154

Total 8.4 6.o 7.8 17.1 23.5 185 135 174 376 521

Netherlands AntillesCrude oil 42.2 37.9 40.4 46.7 45.3 843 758 809 935 906Refined products -33.9 -29.4 -32.2 -37.6 -39.6 -662 -577 -632 -739 -777Bunkers -3.-4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -63 -61 -54 -47 -39

4.9 5.2 5.3 6.5 3.5 118 120 123 149 90

BahamasCrude oil - - - 2.5 14.3 - - - 51 286Refined products - 0.7 1.5 -1.5 -9.3 1 13 30 -27 -178Bunkers - -0.5 - -0.3 -O.6 - -10 - -6 -12

- 0.2 1.5 0.7 4.4 1 3 30 18 96

US Virgin IslandsCrude oil - - - 14.4 25.3 - - 287 507Refined products 0.1 0.1 0.2 -8.8 -16.6 1 2 3 -166 -317Bunkers - - -0.1 -0.1 -1.0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -18

0.1 0.1 0.1 5.5 7.7 - 1 2 119 172

Sub total: CaribbeanCrude oil 42.2 37.9 40.4 63.6 84.9 843 758 809 1,273 1,699Refined products -33.8 -28.6 -30.5 -47.9 -65.5 -660 -562 -599 -932 -1,272Bunkers -3.-4 -3.8 -3.0 -3.0 -3.8 -64 -72 -55 -55 -69

5.0 5.5 6.9 12.7 15.6 119 124 155 286 358

SingaporeCrude oil - 0.1 2.7 11.0 21.7 - 1 53 219 434Refined products 3.4 2.4 1.2 -2.6 -9.2 68 47 21 -55 -186Bunkers - -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.6 -2 -37 -55 -74 -85

3.4 0.5 0.9 4.4 7.9 66 11 19 90 163

Stock Increase(+)/Decrease(-)Bahamas - - - - 31Singapore _ - 2 20 36

- - ~ ~ ~~2 20 67Total: 4 Refining Countries

Note: All four countries are high-income developing countries with large refining centres which are designed to process productsmostly for export from imported crude oil; except Singapore, they also now have crude oil trans-shipment facilitiesdesigned to receive crude oil in very large crude carries and to re-export it in smaller ships basically to the U.S. market.

Source: UN Series J "World Ebergy Supplies" No. 18

Appendix Table 10: NET OIL IMPORTS OF NON-OPBE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, 1955-73(EXCLUDING 13 NET EXPORTING AND FOUR REFINING ODUNTRIES)

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

--_--------------- million metric tons --------------- 000 b/d ----------------

By Income Grouping

High-income 22.6 24.9 31.7 45.8 74.2 459 499 642 928 1,490Middle-income 6.6 8.5 14.2 31.6 40.o 135 172 283 636 802Low-income 11.6 16.3 21.0 30.4 35.0 231 325 419 615 710

40.8 49.7 66.9 107.9 149.2 825 996 1,344 2,179 3,002By Type of Oil

Crude oil 16.0 23.5 55.4 95.0 134.4 322 470 1,109 1,901 2,696Refined products 27.6 29.8 15.8 20.3 24.3 553 597 321 424 494Bunkers -2.8 -3.6 -4.3 -7.4 -9.5 -50 -71 -86 -146 -188

40.8 49.7 66.9 107.9 149.2 825 996 1,344 2,179 3,002By Region

Latin America & Caribbean 19.1 19.2 21.0 33.3 56.1 379 387 430 678 1,130Middle East 5.4 6.8 9.2 4.4 5.3 107 134 183 90 106North Africa 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.6 3.7 .27 26 32 50 74East Africa 2.9 4.4 6.3 7.6 8.9 60 86 116 157 192West Africa 1.4 1.8 3.6 5.3 5.6 28 35 73 104 109South Asia 5.8 8.9 11.4 16.0 20.4 119 178 231 319 407East Asia 4.8 7.1 13.3 37.4 47.1 101 144 266 754 941Oceania 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 3 5 10 23 38Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1 1 3 4 5

40.8 49.7 66.9 107.9 149.2 825 996 1,344 2,179 3,002Stock Increase(+)/Decrease(-)

High-income 1 - 8 -10 14Middle-income 1 - 1 -10 2Low-income 1 2 2 1 3

Total 3 2 11 -19 19

APPENDIX TABLE 11: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING: CONSUMPTION OF SOLID FUELS 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

(-- ---- million metric tons of coal equivalent --------- ) (--__---------- '000 b/d of oil equivalent -------------

High-income 12.7 14-4 18.0 19.0 19.0 169 192 240 253 253Middle-income 6.7 9.8 13.4 16.4 18.1 89 131 179 219 242Low-income 39.8 54.3 69.8 74.7 80.6 531 724 931 996 1075Total 59.2 78.5 101.2 110.1 117.7 789 1047 1350 1468 1570High-income

Latin America 9.6 10.2 11.3 13.1 14.6 128 136 151 175 195North Africa 0.1 - - - - 1 - - -Africa south of Sahara - - 1.2 1.0 0.9 - - 16 13 12East Asia 2.8 4.0 5.3 4.6 3.4 37 53 71 61 45Oceania 0.2 0.1 0-3 0.2 - 3 1 4 3 -12.7 14.4 18.0 19.0 19.0 169 192 240 253 253

Middle-incomeNorth Africa 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 o.6 4 4 9 12 8Africa south of Sahara 3.8 4.0 2.4 3.4 3.5 51 53 32 45 47East Asia 2.5 5.5 10.2 12.2 13.9 33 73 136 163 185

6.7 9.8 13.4 16.4 18.1 89 131 179 219 242Low-income

Africa south of Sahara 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 9 5 7 7 7South Asia 39.0 53.9 69.2 74.2 80.0 521 719 923 990 1067East Asia - - 0.1 - - - - 1 - -39.8 54.3 69.8 74.7 80.6 531 724 931 997 1074


APPENUIX TABLE12: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY REIONS: CONSUMPTION OF SOLID FUELS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

(-- ---- million metric tons of coal equivalent -------- ) - ----- '000 b/d of oil equivalent

Latin America & CaribbeanMexico 1.4 1.8 2.1 3.1 4.5 19 24 28 41 60Argentina 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 17 21 13 19 16Brazil 2.8 2.3 3.2 4.3 4.0 37 31 43 57 53Chile 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 27 21 21 20 21loia 1.8 2.6 3.1 2.5 3.0 24 35 41 33 40Peru 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.; 1 3 1Other 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 3 3 4 2 4

9.6 10.2 11.3 13.1 14.6 128 136 151 175 195North Africa

Egypt 0.1 - 0.4 0.5 - 1 - 5 7 -Morocco 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 3 4 4 5 7Other 0.1 - - - 0.1 1 - - - 1

.-4 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 4 9 9 12 u

Africa south of SaharaZaire o.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 o.4 8 4 5 4 5Other 3-9 3-9 3.7 4.6 4.5 52 54 50 61 61

4.5 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.9 60 58 55 65 66South Asia

India 37.3 51.3 66.6 72.0 78.1 497 685 888 961 1042Pakistan 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.2 21 29 31 25 16Burma 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 3 4 1 3 3Other - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 - 1 3 1 6

39-0 53.9 69.2 74.2 80.0 521 719 923 990 1067East Asia

Korea 2.3 5.3 10.1 12.1 13.8 31 71 135 161 184Taiwan 2.3 3.8 5.1 4U5 3.4 31 51 68 60 45Other 0.7 o.4 0-3 0.2 0.1 8 4 4 3 1

5.3 9.5 15.5 16.8 17.3 70 126 207 224 230

Oceania 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 - 3 1 4 3 -

Total: Non-OPEC Developing 59.2 78.5 101.2 110.1 117.1 789 1047 1350 1468 1570

Note: In the 13 non-OPEC countries (grouping of 1975), solid fuels were consumed only in Mexico, Fgypt and Zaire.


APPENDIX TABLE 13: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING: PRODUCTION OF SOLID FUELS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

----------- million metric tons of coal equivalent -------- ) --------------- '000 b/d of oil equivalent -------- ______

High-income 9.6 11.3 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.1 128 151 192 201 209 215Middle-income 5.4 9.8 14.b 16.5 17.7 19.7 72 131 195 220 236 263Low-income 39.9 53.7 .69.5 76.5 79.8 85.6 532 716 927 1021 1065 1142Total 54.9 74.8 98.5 108.1 113.2 121.4 732 998 1314 1442 1510 1619

High-incomeLatin America 7.0 7.3 9.3 10.0 11.5 12.4 93 97 124 133 153 165Africa south of Sahara - - - 0.6 0.9 0.8 - - - 8 12 11East Asia 2.6 4.0 5.1 4.5 3.3 2.9 35 53 68 60 44 39

9.6 11.3 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.1 128 151 192 201 209 215Middle-income

North Africa 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 6 5 5 5 8 8Africa south of Sahara 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 46 51 50 47 47 50East Asia 1.5 5.5 10.4 12.6 13.7 15.5 20 74 139 168 182 2065.4 9.8 14.6 16.5 17.7 19.7 72 131 195 220 236 263

Low-incomeAfrica south of Sahara 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 7 3 1 1 1 1South Asia 39.4 53.5 69.3 76.4 79.7 85.5 525 713 925 1020 1064 1141East Asia - - 0.1 - -_ 1

39.9 53.7 69.5 76.5 79.8 85.6 532 716 927 1021 1065 1142


APPENDIX TABLE 14: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY RSOIONS: PROHIJCTION OF SOLID FUELS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

(___--_-- million metric tons of coal equivalent --------- ) (-----'-------- 000 b/d of oil equivalent ----------------)

Latin America & CaribbeanMexico 1.3 1.8 2.0 3.0 4.2 4.5 17 24 27 40 56 60Argentina 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1 3 5 8 7 8Brazil 1.7 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 23 17 29 32 31 31Chile 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 27 17 21 19 19 20Columbia 1.8 2.6 3.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 24 35 41 33 40 44Peru 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 3 3 3 '

7.0 7.3 9.3 10.0 11.5 12.4 93 99 124 135 153 164

North AfricaMorocco 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 7 5 5 5 8 8

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 o.6 0.6 7 5 5 5 8 8

Africa south of Sahara

Zaire 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 7 3 1 1 1 1Other 3.5 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.5 47 51 49 55 59 60

4.0 4.0 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.6 54 54 50 56 60 61

South AsiaIndia 38.8 52.6 67.9 74.9 78.3 84.2 518 702 906 999 1045 1123Pakistan 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 7 11 16 17 16 15Other 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1 1 3 3 3 3

39.4 53.5 69.3 76.4 79.7 85.5 525 713 925 1020 1064 1141East Asia

Korea 1.3 5.3 10.3 12.4 13.6 15.3 17 71 137 165 181 204Taiwan 2.4 4.0 5.1 4.5 3.3 2.9 32 53 68 60 44 39Other 0.4 0.2 o.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 6 3 8 3 1 3

4.1 9.5 16.0 17.1 17.0 18.4 55 127 213 228 227 245

Total: Non-OPEC Developing 54.9 74.8 98.5 108.1 113.2 121.4 732 998 1314 1442 151O 1619

Note: In the 13 non-OPEC net oil exporting countries (grouping of 1975), solid fuels were produced only in Mexico and Zaire.


APPENDIX TABLE; 15 NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOM GROUPING: NET IMPORTS OF SOLID FUELS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

------- million metric tons of coal equivalent -- -) - ------- - '000 b/d of oil equivalent ----------------

High-income 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.0 3.3 41 42 50 53 44

Middle-income 1.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.1 0.5 19 1 -15 -1 6Low-income -0.1 +0.? 0.7 0.8 0.8 -1 9 9 10 10

Total 4.4 4.0 3.3 4.7 4.6 59 52 44 62 60

High-incomeLatin America 2.6 2.9 2.1 3.3 3.2 34 39 28 44 42North Africa 0.1 - - - - - 1 - - -Africa south of Sahara - - 1.2 0.3 - - - - 16 4 - -

East Asia 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 - 4 1 3 1Oceania 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 - 3 1 4 3 3

3.2 3.1 3.8 3.9 3.4 _ 41 42 50 53 4i4

Middle-incomeNorth Africa -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 - -1 -1 4 6 -

Africa south of Sahara 0.5 0.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.1 6 3 -18 -3 1East Asia 1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 14 -1 -1 -4 5

1.5 - -1.2 - 0.5 19 1 -15 -1 6

Low-incomeAfrica south of Sahara 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 - 4 3 5 5 5South Asia -°..4 0. 0.3 0-4 0.4 - -5 5 4 5 5

-0.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 - -1 9 9 10 10

Stock Increase :/Decrease -)High-income (Chile) - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 - 1 1 3 1Middle-income (Korea) 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.2 - 1 _ 1 _ -Lorw-income (India) - - 0.4 2.5 - 1 _ 5 33 3

Total 0.1 0.1 o.6 2.7 0.3 - 2 1 7 36 4

Source: UN Series J "World Energ Supplies" No. 18

APP?==X TABLE 16: NON-OPlC DEVEwPING COUNTRIES By INCOmE (POUPING: CONSUNp]ION OF NRTURAL GAS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

- -- -- billion cubic meters ------------------) ---- ---- '000 b/d of oil equivalent ------------- )

High-income 4.2 8.1 15.2 24.7 30.6 75 144 261 424 524Middle-income - - 0.1 0.2 0.3 - - 2 4 5Lav-income - 0.7 1.9 4.0 6.1 1 11 33 69 105Total -4.2 8.8 17.2 25.9 36.7 76 155 295 1,97 634

High-incomeLatin America 4.2 8.1 14.6 23.3 28.4 72 139 250 399 487Middle East - - 0.1 0.3 0.3 - - 2 5 5North Africa - - - - 0.1 - - - - 2East Asia 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3 3 9 19 31Sub-Total 4.4 8.4 15.2 24.7 30.6 75 144 261 424 524

Middle-incomeLatin America - - 0.1 0.1 0.2 - - 2 2 3Middle East - - - - - - -North Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - 2 2 2Sub Total - - 0.1 0.2 0-3 - - 2 -4 5

Low-incomeSouth Asia - 0.7 1.9 4.0 6.1 1 12 33 69 105Sub Total - 0.7 1.9 4.0 6.1 1 11 33 69 i05

Source: IN Series J "World Energy Supplies" No. 18.

APPENDIX TABLE 17: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING OOUNTRIES BY REIONS CONSUMfTION OF NATURAL GAS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

(---------------- billion cubic meters -------------------- ) (------- ------- O00O b/d of oil equivalent ---------------

Latin America & CaribbeanMexico 2.4 3.8 5.8 10.3 11.6 41 65 99 177 199Trinidad & Tobago 0.5 o.8 1.2 1.6 1.5 9 14 21 27 26Argentina 0.7 1.4 4.2 6.o 8.3 12 24 72 103 142Brazil 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.2 2 9 12 22 21Bolivia - - 0.1 0.1 0.2 - - 2 2 3Chile 0.1 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.4 2 14 22 39 58Columbia - 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 - 7 15 26 31Peru 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 7 7 7 9 9Sub Total 4.2 8.1 14.6 23.6 28.5 72 139 250 405 488

Middle EastBahrein - 0.1 0.1 0.2 - - 2 2 3Israel (Sinai fields) _ _ 0.1 0.1 0.1 2 2 2Sub Total _ _ 0.2 0.2 0.3 2 2 5

North AfricaEgpt - - - 0.1 0.1 2 2Tunisia - - - - 0.1 2Morocco - - - - 0.1 2Sub Total - - - 0.1 0.3 2 5

South AsiaIndia - - 0.2 0.5 0.6 _ - 3 9 10Pakistan - o.6 1.8 3.5 4.4 - 10 31 60 75Afghanistan _ - - 0.1 0.4 2 7Other 0 - 0.7 12Sub Total - 0.7 1.9 4.0 6.1 _ 12 33 69 105

East AsiaBrunei 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 2 2 3 3 3Malaysia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2 2 2 2 2Taiwan - - 0.3 0.9 1.5 5 15 26

0.2 0.2 o.5 1.1 1.8 3 3 9 19 31Total: Non-OPEC Developing 4.4 9.0 17.2 29.0 37.0 76 155 295 497 634

Source: UN Series J "World Eaergy Supplies" No. 18.

APPENDIX TABLE 18: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING: PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973

(-------------- billion cubic meters -------------------- ) (-------------- '000 b/d of oil equivalent - -------------

High-income 3.8 9.2 16.4 25.6 30.2 65 158 282 439 518Middle-income - - 0.1 0.2 1.9 - - 2 4 33Low-income - 0.7 1.9 6.6 8.9 1 11 33 113 152

Total 3.8 9.9 18.4 32.4 4:.c 66 169 317 556 703

High-incomeLatin America 3.6 9.0 15.8 24.2 26.5 62 154 271 415 454Middle East - - 0.1 0.3 0. - - 2 4 5North Africa - - - - 0.1 - - - - 2East Asia 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.4 4 4 9 20 58

Sub total 3.8 9.2 16.4 25.6 30.2 65 158 282 439 l18

Middle-incomeLatin America - - 0.1 0.1 1.8 1 2 30North Africa - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 2 2Sub total - - 0.1 0.2 1.9 - - 2 4 33

Low-incomeSouth Asia - 0.7 1.9 6.6 8.9 1 11 33 113 152


APPENDIX TABLE 19: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY REGIONS: PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

(------- - billion cubic meters --------------------- ) (--------------- '000 b/d of oil equivalent ----------------

Latin Ameirca & CaribbeanMexico 1.8 4.7 7.1 11.2 11.3 20.5. 31 80 121 191 193 351Trinidad & Tobago 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 9 13 20 27 27 24Argentina 0.7 1.4 4.2 6.o 6.7 7.2 12 24 72 103 115 124Brazil 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.5 1 9 12 22 20 25Bolivia - - 0.1 0.1 1.8 2.5 - - 1 2 30 43Chile 0.1 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.4 3.6 2 14 22 39 58 62Colombia - 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 - 7 16 25 32 29Peru 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 7 7 8 8 9 9

Sub Total 3.6 9.0 15.8 24.5 28.2 38.9 62 154 272 417 484 667

Middle EastBahrein - - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 - - 1 2 4Israel (Sinai fields) - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - 1 2 1

Sub Total _ - 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 - - 2 4 5 5

North AfricaEgypt _ - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - 1 2 1 1Tunisia _ - 0.1 0.2 - - - _ 2 4Morocco _ - - - 0.1 0.1 - - 1 1 1

Sub Total -0.1 0.3 0.4 - - 1 3 4 6

South AsiaIndia - - 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 - -3 8 11 14Pakistan - 0.6 1.8 3.5 4.4 4.6 1 11 30 60 75 79Afghanistan - - - 2.6 3.1 3.2 - - - 44 53 55Bangladesh - - - - 0.7 0.9 - - 13 15

- 0.6 2.0 6.6 8.8 9.5 1 11 33 113 152 162

East AsiaBrunei 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.9 0.4 3 4 4 4 33 8Malaysia - - - - - - -Taiwan - - 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.6 - - 5 16 25 27

0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.4 2.0 3 4 9 20 58 35

Total: Non-OPEC Developing 3.8 9.8 18.5 32.5 41.0 51.2 66 169 317 556 703 875

Source: UN Series J "World Energy Supplies" No. 18.

APPENDIX TABLE 20: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING ANB) HkLiUaZ:

NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

( -- ----------- billion cubic meters ------------------ --------------- 000 b/d of oil equivalent ---------------

A. By Income Groupingas

High-income o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 0.4 10 -14 -21 -15 7ISiddle-income - - - - -1.6 - - - _ -27Low-income - - - -2.6 -2.7 - - - 45_6

TOTAL o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -3.5 -3.9 10 -14 -21 -60 -67

High-incomeLatin Amierica o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 1.9 10 -14 -21 -15 33East Asia _- - - -1.5 - - - - -26

Sub Total o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 0.4 10 -14 -21 _15 7

Middle-income

Latin America - - - - -1.6 -27Sub Total - - -1.6 _ - - - -27

Low-income

South Asia - _ _ -2.6 -2.7 - - - -45 -46Sub Total - - -2.6 -2.7 - - - -45 -46

Countries by Net Oil ExotExport Grouping. ofr97

High-Income o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 1.3 10 -14 -21 -15 -22Middle-income - -. 6 - - -1. -27

B. By Regions

Latin America & CaribbeanMexico o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 0.3 10 -14 -21 -15 6Argentina - - 1.6 27Bolivia - - - -1.6 -27

Sub Total o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 0.3 10 -14 -21 -15 6

South AsiaAfghanistan - - - -2.6 -2.7 - - - -45 -46

Eas a- - - -2.6 -2.7 - - - -45 -46Eaat Asia

Brunei -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 - -1.7 -2 -2 -2 - -29

Malaysia 0.1 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 2 2 2 _ 2Sub Total - - - - -1.5 - - - - -26

Total: Non-OPEC Developing o.6 -0.8 -1.2 -3.5 -3.9 10 -14 -21 -60 -67

Note: No stock variation is recorded in this period for Non-OPEC Developing Countries.

Source: Un Series J "World Energy Supplies" No. 18

APPENDIX TABLE 21 : NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING: CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ELECTRICITY, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

--------------------- billion kwh ------------------------- --- _ 000 b/d of oil equivalent ---------------- )

High-income 22.3 36.5 54.6 84.3 105.8 36 60 90 138 174Middle-income 2.2 6.7 10.8 20.4 23.9 4 11 18 33 39Low-income 5.9 11.5 21.4 37.0 42.5 10 19 35 61 70

Total 30.3 54.7 86.8 141.7 172.2 50 90 143 232 283

High-incomeLatin America 20.3 33.7 48.0 75.2 95.4 33 55 80 124 157Middle East 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 - - 1 1 1North Africa - - - _ 0.1Africa south of Sahara - - 2.6 3.8 5.1 - - 4 6 8East Asia 1.8 2.3 3.2 4.0 4.5 3 4 5 7 7Oceania 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 1 -Other - - - 0.1 0.1 - -

22.2 36.5 54.6 84.3 105.8 36 60 90 138 174

Middle-incomeLatin America 0.1 o.6 0.9 1.5 1.7 - 1 1 2 3Middle East - - - 0.1 0.1North Africa 0.8 1.2 3.0 6.o 6.3 1 2 5 10 10Africa south of Sahara 0.4 3.1 3.7 7.8 10.3 1 5 6 13 17East Asia 0.9 1.9 3.1 5.1 5.5 1 3 5 8 9

2.2 6.7 10.8 20.4 23.9 4 11 18 33 39

Low-incomeAfrica south of Sahara 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.1 6.2 3 4 6 8 10South Asia 4.2 8.8 17.7 31.8 36.1 7 14 29 52 59East Asia - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 - -

5.9 11.5 21.4 37.0 42.5 10 18 35 60 69


APPENDIX TABLE 22: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY REGIONS: CONSUKPTION OF PRIMARY ECTRICITY, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

- ------------- billion kwh ------------------------ ) (-'-- 000 b/d of oil equivalent ---- )Latin America & Caribbean

Mexico 3.6 5.6 9.0 15.1 16.8 6 9 15 25 28Argentina - 0.9 1.2 1.6. 2.9 - 1 2 3 5Brazil 10.6 18.4 25.5 39.9 52.9 17 30 42 65 87Bolivia - 0.4 0.4 o.6 0.7 - 1 1 1 1Chile 2.3 3.0 4.0 4.3 5.3 4 5 7 7 9Colombia 1.5 2.6 3.9 7.0 8.0 2 4 6 11 13Peru 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.6 2 3 4 6 8Other 1.3 1.7 2.3 4.4 5.9 2 3 4 7 9

20.4 34.3 48.9 76.7 97.1 33 56 81 126 160Middle East

Syria -- .1 0.1 - - - - -Other (Lebanon) 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 - - 1 1 1

0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 o.6 - - 1 1 1

North AfricaEgypt - 0.3 1.8 4.7 5.2 - - 3 8 9Tunisia - - - - 0.1 - - - -Morocco 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1 1 2 2 2

0.8 1.2 3.0 6.0 6.4 1 2 5 10 10Africa south of Sahara

Angola - 0.1 03 .5 0.8 - _ 1 1Congo - - - - 0.1 -Zaire 1.3 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.7 2 3 4 5 6Other o.8 3.7 7.3 13.2 17.0 2 6 12 21 28

2.1 5.7 9.9 16.7 21.6 4 9 16 27 35

South AsiaIndLa 3.7 7.8 15.2 27.7 29.9 6 13 25 45 49Pakistan o.4 0.7 2.0 3.3 4.9 1 1 3 5 8Burma - 0.2 0.3 o.4 0.5 - - - 1 1Other 0.1 0.1 0.2 o.4 0.8 _ - - 1 1

4.2 8.8 17.7 31.8 36.1 7 14 28 52 59East Asia

Malaysia 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 - - 1 2 2Taiwan 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.4 2 3 4 5 6Other 1.0 1.9 3.2 5.2 5.6 2 4 5 9 9

2.7 4.2 6.4 9.2 10.1 IL 7 10 15 17

Oceania 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 - 1 1 1 1Other - - - 0.1 0.1 - - - -

Total: NON-OPEC Developing 30.3 54.7 86.8 141.7 172.2 50 90 143 232 283

Note: No primary electricity is consumed in net oil exporting countries of Trinidad & Tobago, Bahrein, Oman and Brunei.

Source: IN Series J "World BEergy Supplies" No. 18.

APPENDIX TABLE 23: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING: PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ELECTRICITY, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

-------------------- billion kwh ---------- ) -------------- '000 b/d of oil equivalent ----------------

High-income 22.1 36.1 52.3 81.2 103.6 36 59 86 133 170Middle-income 2.2 6.2 12.8 23.4 25.3 4 10 21 38 41Low-income 5.9 12.0 21.6 37.2 42.7 10 20 35 61 70

Total 30.2 54.3 86.7 141.8 171.6 50 89 142 232 281

High-incomeLatin America 20.1 33.2 47.9 75.2 95.1 33 54 79 123 156Middle East 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 - - 1 1 1North Africa - - - - 0.1 - - - - -Africa south of Sahara - - 0.3 0.7 3.3 - - - 1 5East Asia 1.8 2.3 3.2 4.0 4.5 3 4 5 7 7Oceania 0.1 o.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 - 1 -

Other - - - 0.1 0.1 - - - - -

22.1 36.1 52.3 81.2 103.6 36 59 86 133 170

Middle-incomeLatin America 0.1 o.6 0.9 1.5 1.7 - 1 1 2 3Middle East - - - 0.1 0.1 - - - - -North Africa 0.8 1.2 3.0 6.0 6-3 1 2 5 10 10Africa south of Sahara 0.4 2.5 5.7 10.7 11.9 1 4 9 18 20East Asia 0.9 1.9 3.1 5.2 5.3 1 3 5 9 9

2.2 6.2 12.8 23.4 25.3 4 10 21 38 41

Low-incomeAfrica south of Sahara 1.7 3.2 3.8 5.3 6-3 3 5 6 9 10South Asia 4.2 8.8 17.7 31.8 36.1 7 14 29 52 59East Asia - - 0.1 - 0.3 - - - - 1

5.9 12.0 21.6 37.2 42.7 10 20 35 61 70


APPENDIX TABLE 24: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY REGIONS: PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ELECTRICITY,1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974

(------- -------- -biLlion kwh ------------------------ ) (--------------- '000 b/d of oil equivalent --------------

Latin America & CaribbeanMexico 3.4 5.2 8.9 15.0 16.4 6 9 15 25 27Argentina - 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.9 - 1 2 3 5Brazil 10.6 18.4 25.5 39.9 52.9 17 30 42 65 87Bolivia - 0.4 0.4 o.6 0.7 - 1 1 1 1Chile 2.3 3.0 4.0 4.3 5.3 4 5 7 7 9Columbia 1.5 2.6 3.9 6.4 8.0 2 4 6 11 13Peru 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.6 2 3 4 6 8Other 1.3 1.6 2.3 5.1 6.0 2 3 , 4 8 10

20.2 33.8 48.8 76.? 96.8 33 55 80 126 159Middle East 0.1 1

Other (Lebanon) - 0-1 0.1 0.1 0 9 0 5 -- - 1 10.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 o.6 - - - 1 1

North AfricaEgypt - 0.3 1.8 4. 7 5.2 - 1 3 8 9Tunisia - - - 0.1 - -Morocco 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1 1 2 2 2

0.8 1.2 3.0 6.o 6.5 1 2 5 10 11Africa south of Sahara

Angola _ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 - - - 1 1Congo - - - - 0.1 - - - - -Zaire 1.3 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.8 2 4 4 5 6Other 0.8 3.2 6.9 13.0 16.8 1 5 11 21 28

2.1 5.7 9.8 16.7 21.5 3 9 16 27 35

South AsiaIndia 3.8 7.8 15.2 27.7 29.9 6 13 25 45 49Pakistan 0.4 0.7 2.0 3.3 4.9 1 1 3 5 8Burma - 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 - - 1 1 1Other - 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 - - - 1 1

4.2 8.8 17.7 31.8 36.1 7 14 29 52 59East Asia

Malaysia 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 - - 1 2 2Taiwan 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.4 2 3 4 5 6Other 1.0 0.9 3.1 5.2 5.3 2 2 5 9 9

2.7 3.2 6.3 9.2 9.8 4 5 10 15 16

Oceania 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 - 1 1 - -Other - - 0.1 0.1 - - - -

Total: Non-OPEC Developing 30.2 54.3 86.7 141.6 171.6 50 89 142 232 281

Note: Primary electricity was not produced by net oil exporting countries of Trinidad, Bahrein, Oman or Brunei.


APPENDIX TABLE 25: NON-OPEC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY INCOME GROUPING: NET IMPCRTS OF PRIMARY ELECTRICITY, 1955-1974

1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 197h

(---------- ---------- billion kwh ------------------------ ) ------------- million b/d of oil equivalent - ____-----)High-income 0.2 0.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 - 1 4 5 4Middle-income - 0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -1 .4 - 1 -3 -5 -2Low-income - -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 - -1 -1 - -Total 0.2 0.5 - 0.1 o.6 - 1 - 1

High-income 1/Latin America (all Mexico)- 0.2 0.5 0.1 - 0.3 - 1 - - 1Africa south of Sahara - - 2.3 3.1 1.7 - - 4 5 3

0.2 0.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 - 1 4 5 Middle-income

Africa south of Sahara - 0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -1.6 - 1 -3 -5 -2East Asia - - - - 0.2 - - - -- 0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -1.4 - 1 -3 -5 -2

Low-incomeAfrica south of Sahara - -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 - 1 1 - -(Zaire) 1/East Asia - - - - -0.2 - 1

- -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 - 1 1 _ _

1/ The Olay net oil exporting country which imported primary electricity was Mexico, and exported it was Zaire.

Source: UN Series J "World fhergy Supplies" No. 18.

ANNEX VI

REFERENCES

1. Chase Manhattan Bank, Cpital Investments of the World PetroleumIdux (aml)

2. World Oil, International Outlook Issue (August 15, yearly).

3. Baletin of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists(Jly iss-ue)

4. Offshore; offshors drilling survey (July issues)

5. Pieline Industry (January, April, July and October issues)

6. Adelman,, M. The World Petroleum Karket, Baltimore, John HopkinsUniversity Press, 1972.

7. Bradley, P., The Economics of Crude Petroleum Production, Amsterdam,North Ho=land,1967

8. World Energy Conference, Survey of Energy ___, 19741 , U.N.National Cornittee, World Energy Conference, New York, 1974.

9. U.N. Series J, World Energy Suplies., 1970-73, Statistical Office,U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, 1975.

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