PETROBRAS TURNS AROUND - brazilenergyinsight.com · The presentation may contain forward-looking...
Transcript of PETROBRAS TURNS AROUND - brazilenergyinsight.com · The presentation may contain forward-looking...
PETROBRAS TURNS AROUND
—
24.10.2016
Pedro ParentePresident & CEO of Petrobras
Disclaimer
—
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements aboutfuture events within the meaning of Section 27A of the SecuritiesAct of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the SecuritiesExchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historicalfacts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views andestimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions,company performance and financial results. Such terms as"anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan","project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogousexpressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projectionsand may differ materially from actual future results or events.Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company withthe SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report onForm 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could causeactual results to differ from those contained in the forward-lookingstatements, including, among other things, risks relating to generaleconomic and business conditions, including crude oil and othercommodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates,uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gasreserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves,international and Brazilian political, economic and socialdevelopments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses andour ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise anyforward-looking statements, whether as a result of newinformation or future events or for any other reason. Figures for2016 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in theirentirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not placereliance on any forward-looking statement contained in thispresentation.
In addition, this presentation also contains certain financialmeasures that are not recognized under Brazilian GAAP or IFRS.These measures do not have standardized meanings and may notbe comparable to similarly-titled measures provided by othercompanies. We are providing these measures because we usethem as a measure of company performance; they should not beconsidered in isolation or as a substitute for other financialmeasures that have been disclosed in accordance with BrazilianGAAP or IFRS.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gasresources, that we are not permitted to present in documentsfiled with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because suchterms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reservesunder Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X. 2
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45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
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155
165
175
185Petrobras Brent
Investors are seeing the recovery of the company
—
Despite the lower oil
prices, investors believe in
the recovery of Petrobras
Petrobras Market Value x Brent (01/01/2015=100)
3
Source: Bloomberg
1 Year
Annual TSR (Dec ’15-Dec '16)1
Estimated Debt Cost
Term Jan. 31 1 month ago 1 year ago Maximum
5 years 5,4 % p.a. 6,6% p.a. 12,3% p.a.15,9% p.a.
(09/29/15)
10 years 7,0% p.a. 7,8% p.a. 11,8% p.a.14,4% p.a.
(01/20/16)
30 years 7,9% p.a. 8,6% p.a. 10,8% p.a.13,2% p.a.
(02/11/16)
Liability Management
3 sucessful liability management offers between May 2016 and
January 2017
US$ 14 bn in issuances and US$ 15 bn in repurchases helped reduce
cost of funding and extended maturities
Awarded “Corporate Liability Management of the Year” by
LatinFinance Magazine
TSR: Earnings growth, Change in valuation multiple and Free Cash Flow yieldSource: Capital IQ; BCG analysis, BCG
In 2016, higher total shareholder return and lower cost of debt
—
4
Safety activities on a typical day
Headcount at shipyards 38.000
Safety Dialogues 4.000
Work Permits 10.000
Confined Space Entry Permits 400
Interventions 1.500
Work Permits Audits 2.000
Job Safety Analysis 4.500
Distance travelled by trucks (million km/day) 1,7
Source: Petrobras and subsidiaries
Making safety our top priority
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Our safety daily challenge SAFETY
Reduction of
36%In the Total Recordable Injury
Frequency Rate (TRIFR*)
5
TO
1.4by 2018
FROM
2.2in 2015
Deleveraging the company
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DRIVERS
Competitive prices
Partnerships and Divestments
Opex Efficiency
Capex Efficiency
FINANCIAL
Reduction in
LEVERAGENet Debt/EBITDA
TO
2.5by 2018
FROM
5.3in 2015
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Import
New pricing policy in place since October 2016
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How was it?
How it is now?
Need for more frequent changes
Shorter-term adherence to price
changes in international markets
Decisive element for
downstream partnerships
Guidelines of the new
pricing policy
-2,7
-10,4
9,5
6,1
-5,1
-3,2 -3,1
8,1
0
-1,4
-12
-7
-2
3
8
Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 6 Jan 17 27 Jan 17
Price changes
Diesel Gasoline
%
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Petrobras BP Chevron ExxonMobil Total
2014 2015 2016 Estimate
Selected Companies Capex
(US$ Billion)
Sources: Evaluate Energy, Energy Intelligence, Company Report
-18%
Lower investment is an industry trend
—
-16%-19%
-16%
-38%
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40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2013200520042001 2014 2016
Jan-Set
201520092008 2010 201220112007200620032002
ExxonPetrobras Shell Chevron BP
CAPEX E&P / CAPEX Total
Investment is focused on core business
—
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
%
9
Manageable operating costs* – 2017-18
(US$ Billion)
* Manageable operating costs: lifting, refining, logistics and distribution costs, overhead and others
2013 2014 2015 2016ESTIMATE
2017 2018
3333
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Oil and Gas Production (Million boed)2,54
2,692,79 2,79
Cuts in Capex and Opex did not lower production
—
10
Partnerships and divestments
2017-2018
21
2015-2016
Partnership and divestment program took off
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Strategic Partnership
with Total
USD 2.2 billion
13,6
49% Gaspetro to Mitsui
Bacia Austral assets to CGG
66,7% PESA to Pampa Energia
Petrobras Chile Distribuición to SCC
66% BM-S-8 (Carcara) to Statoil
90% of Nova Transportadora do
Sudeste to Brookfield
Nansei Seikyu to Taiyo OC
Liquigas to Ultragaz
Partnership with Total
45,97% Guarani to Tereos
Petrochemical Suape and Citepe to Alpek
49% Nova Fronteira to Sao Martinho
Strategic Partnership
with Statoil
USD 2.5 billion11
Strategic Partnership
with Galp
Net debt/Ebitda
15.626
29.619
-25.687-41.828
-19.554
2012 2013 2014 2016 ¹2015
Free cash flow (R$ million)
Indicators are showing a turnaround
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Investments
Cash flow from operating activities
(1) Data for 2016 until 3Q
5,31
4,1
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
5,5
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
2012 a 2014
-R$ 87.069
2015 a 2016¹
+R$ 45.245
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2020 2030 2040
MM
TO
Es
Oil Natural gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewables Other
Source: IHS Markit (Scenario)
125 121 134 140
Other: Includes biofuels, solid waste, biomass, and net trade of electricity and heat
Oil and gas will remain the dominant energy sources in Brazil
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Brazilian Energy Mix
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Challenges
ahead
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Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East
Uncertainties about Trump’s monetary, trade
and foreign policies
Economic slowdown of Europe and China
Slow economic recovery in Brazil
2017 Top Risks
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In the oil sector, regulation is likely to move towards a more competitive
business environment
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Improvement in
local content policy
Streamline
environmental licensing
Changes in the
pre-salt law
New calendar
for bid rounds
Better regulatory
framework
New regulation for
the Gas industry
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Regulatory framework for the Oil&Gas
industry tends to improve
Deleveraging and safety are top priorities for
Petrobras
Key messages—
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THANK YOU
—Pedro ParentePresident & CEO of Petrobras