A Proposed New Strategy for Tropical Cyclone A Proposed New Strategy for Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Based on Western Pacific Reconnaissance Based on Western Pacific

TCS08 Proof of ConceptTCS08 Proof of Concept

Peter G. Black (1), Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) and Russell L. Elsberry (3)

(1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc., Monterey, CA(2) Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA (3) Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

6363rdrd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceSt. Petersburg, FloridaSt. Petersburg, Florida2-6 March, 20092-6 March, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008

Research FlightsResearch Flights• Missions: 28Missions: 28• Mission Flight Hours: 263Mission Flight Hours: 263• High-Level Depression 300mb Missions: 12High-Level Depression 300mb Missions: 12• Tropical Cyclones: 4Tropical Cyclones: 4• TC 700mb Missions: 12TC 700mb Missions: 12• Buoy Deployment Missions: 2Buoy Deployment Missions: 2

• GPS Dropsondes Deployed: 750GPS Dropsondes Deployed: 750• AXBTs Deployed: 250AXBTs Deployed: 250• Drifting Buoys Deployed: 24Drifting Buoys Deployed: 24• Number Flight Personnel: 75Number Flight Personnel: 75• WC-130J Aircraft: 2WC-130J Aircraft: 2

WC-130J Aircraft Performance

WC-130J CapabilitiesWC-130J Capabilities

• Endurance:Endurance: 12-hour12-hour• Ceiling:Ceiling: 300 mb, i.e. 9.7 km (31K ft) altitude300 mb, i.e. 9.7 km (31K ft) altitude• (after 2.5-hr transit)(after 2.5-hr transit)• WPAC Range- from Guam, staging to KadenaWPAC Range- from Guam, staging to Kadena• Okinawa & Yakota, Japan: 120-160E, 7-42NOkinawa & Yakota, Japan: 120-160E, 7-42N• Real-time HDOB, 1-sec resolution recordedReal-time HDOB, 1-sec resolution recorded• SFMR surface windsSFMR surface winds• GPS sonde deploymentGPS sonde deployment• AXBT deployment AXBT deployment • Radar Video RecordingRadar Video Recording

New Recco Strategy NeededNew Recco Strategy Needed

• Shift focus in developing systems Shift focus in developing systems toward defining vertical structure toward defining vertical structure over a domainover a domain

• Focus on better definition of 3D Focus on better definition of 3D initial vortex for evolving coupled initial vortex for evolving coupled modelsmodels

• Driven by emerging requirements Driven by emerging requirements for improved 5 to 7 day forecasts for improved 5 to 7 day forecasts and related requirement to improve and related requirement to improve genesis and intensity change genesis and intensity change forecastingforecasting

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSo The strategy of flying high in weak systems, in concert with remote sensing The strategy of flying high in weak systems, in concert with remote sensing

guidance, rather than flying low looking for weak circulations, is an idea guidance, rather than flying low looking for weak circulations, is an idea whose time has come.whose time has come.

o This requires additional expenditures for expendables: an average of 26 GPS This requires additional expenditures for expendables: an average of 26 GPS dropsondes and 13 AXBTs per flight at one deg resolution for sondes, two dropsondes and 13 AXBTs per flight at one deg resolution for sondes, two deg resolution for AXBTs. Added expenses of approximately 50% relative to deg resolution for AXBTs. Added expenses of approximately 50% relative to flight hour and personell costs would be required.flight hour and personell costs would be required.

o With Use of recorded radar video in concert with near-real time satellite With Use of recorded radar video in concert with near-real time satellite microwave products, sonde profiles can be co-located relative to clusters of microwave products, sonde profiles can be co-located relative to clusters of active convection and observations. This will allow forecasters to determine active convection and observations. This will allow forecasters to determine the altitude and strength of developing meso-synoptic vortices and greatly the altitude and strength of developing meso-synoptic vortices and greatly enhance situational awareness during the tropical cyclone forecast and enhance situational awareness during the tropical cyclone forecast and warning process.warning process.

o We are at an historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity We are at an historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the TC surface observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the TC surface and mid-level wind domain concurrent with subsurface ocean thermal and mid-level wind domain concurrent with subsurface ocean thermal structure matches the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and structure matches the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and model the total TC environment. This alignment should provide the next best model the total TC environment. This alignment should provide the next best opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.

Unprecidented Real-Time Unprecidented Real-Time Satellite Capabilities: Data FusionSatellite Capabilities: Data Fusion

TCS08Aug 27-28

Google-EarthWC-130J:blueP3: yellow

DATA FUSION

Developers:Joe Turk, NRLBob Creasey, NPS

TCS08 Flight Patterns-1TCS08 Flight Patterns-1Base of OperationsBase of Operations

Bow-TieBow-Tie

RacetrackRacetrackSquare SpiralSquare Spiral

Zig-ZagZig-Zag

TCS08 Flight Patterns-2TCS08 Flight Patterns-2Base of OperationsBase of Operations

Bow-TieBow-TieFigure 4Figure 4

ButterflyButterflyRotated Fig 4Rotated Fig 4

Upper Ocean Heat ContentTCS2528 Aug, 2008 0000GMT

Developer:Dong-Shan Ko,NRL-Stennis

SSMIS- F1627 Sept, 2213 GMTWC-130J sondes- SFC27 Aug, 21 UTC -28 Aug, 03 UTC

SSMIS- F1627 Sept, 2213 GMTWC-130J sondes- 700 MB27 Aug, 21 UTC -28 Aug, 03 UTC

SSMIS- F1627 Sept, 2213 GMTWC-130J sondes- 700 MB27 Aug, 21 UTC -28 Aug, 03 UTC

0330 UTC7 Sept, 2008

0030 UTC7 Sept, 2008

Data Fusion:Google-EarthEnhanced IR +WC-130J flight track, Dropsonde locations

Surface

850 MB

700 MB

400 MB

Surface

400 MB

TCS08 AXBT LocationsKo, NRL Stennis

AXBT vs NRL OceanModel Initial Conditions

TCS08 Ocean HeatContent Obs: •Concurrent with GPS dropsondes•Preview of ITOP2010

Ko, NRL Stennis

Operations: Aircraft – buoy deployment

P-3 flight track

2313 UTC 26 September

First buoy deploymentIn TY Hagupit several days earlier

Second deploymentin STY Jangmi

Buoy, aircraft, and satellite data in Google Earth

First occurrence of the deployment of drifting buoys ahead of a category 5 tropical cyclone (Jangmi). Chart at left and imagery below are from a few hours after the deployment of the buoys along the diagonal to the northwest of the TC

Niiler, ScrippsMorzel, NWRA/CoRA

27 Sept, 0445

27 Sept, 1134

27 Sept, 2132

28 Sept, 0006

TCS08- Jangmi

JMA

SATCON Intensity:Velden, CIMSSHawkins, NRL

TCS08Jangmi Sept, 2008Track/Intensity

STY Jangmi27 Sept, 2008

QSCAT: MagentaDrift Buoys: BlueSFMR: Black

H*WIND

With SFMR Data

With QSCAT & ASCAT only

H*WIND AnalysisSTY Jangmi 27 Sept, 2008