PETER CIBOROWSKIAPRIL 4 , 2012

Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power

Sector: Numbers and Attribution

Assigned Questions

Emissions and emission rates from the Minnesota electric power sector have declined substantially, 2000-2010 How much of that can be attributed to the installation of

control equipment and facility retrofits/changeouts? How much of it is due to changes in dispatch? Of changes arising from dispatch how much is due

respectively to new natural gas, biomass and wind generation (and the backing-off of coal) and how much due to import substitution?

Needed Data Development

• Updated data through 2010 for net generation, energy input to generation, in-state GHG emissions, in-state fossil CO2 emissions, sector energy balance, out-of-state emission and heat rates

• Updated universe of facilities to add Rapids Energy, OREG3, Koda Energy

• Developed NOx and SO2 emissions data from MPCA Criteria Pollutant Inventory

• Maintained all else the same as in October 2011 , including sectoral definitions

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 -

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

Fossil CO2 Emissions from Electric Generation Units in Minnesota (EPA CAMDE unit population)

MPCA

USEPA Clean Air Markets Development

year

shor

t to

ns

 EPA Clean Air Markets

Development (CEM)MPCA GHG and Criteria Pollutant Inventories a

NOx (tons) 31,153 40,044

SO2 (tons) 41,574 45,452

fossil CO2 (tons) 32,873,310 34,750,352 a using the sectoral definition given in ‘EGU Rules Database’, October 2011

Comparison of CY 2010 EGU Emissions Estimates: MPCA and EPA

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

Energy Balance for Minnesota Electric Power Sector

Required Net Imports after Losses (MWH)

Net In-state Generation (MWH)

Electric Demand (MWH)

Estimated T&D Losses (MWH)

year

MW

H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Minnesota Electric Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

CO2-

eq to

ns

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

GHG Emission Rate per MWH from the Minnesota Electric Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Generation

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

CO2-

eq to

ns/M

WH

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.11

GHG Emission Rate per MMBtu of Energy Input from the Minnesota Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Generation

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

CO2-

eq to

ns/M

MBt

u

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000 NOx Emissions from the Minnesota Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

tons

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0000

0.0005

0.0010

0.0015

0.0020

0.0025

0.0030NOx Emission Rate per MWH from the Minnesota Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Generation

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

tons

/MW

H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

0.00005

0.00010

0.00015

0.00020

0.00025

0.00030

NOx Emission Rate per MMBtu of Energy Input from the Minnesota Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Generation

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

tons

/MM

Btu

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

SO2 Emissions from the Minnesota Electric Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

tons

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0000

0.0005

0.0010

0.0015

0.0020

0.0025

0.0030

0.0035

SO2 Emission Rates per MWH from the Minnesota Electric Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Generation

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

tons

/MW

H

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

0.00005

0.00010

0.00015

0.00020

0.00025

0.00030

SO2 Emission Rates per MMBtu from the Minnesota Electric Power Sector

In-state Combustion

In-state Generation

In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

year

tons

/MM

Btu

   units GHGs NOx SO2

In-state Combustion tons 19% 60% 61% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons 9% 52% 45%

In-state Combustion tons/MWH 7% 54% 55%

In-state Generation tons/MWH 18% 59% 61% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH 15% 55% 49%

In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu 6% 54% 55%

In-state Generation tons/MMBtu 13% 57% 58% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu 9% 52% 45%

Percentage Reduction between 2003 and 2010

   units GHGs NOx SO2

In-state Combustion tons 11% 58% 54% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons 3% 52% 39%

In-state Combustion tons/MWH 8% 57% 53%

In-state Generation tons/MWH 18% 61% 58% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH 15% 58% 46%

In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu 7% 56% 52%

In-state Generation tons/MMBtu 12% 58% 55% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu 9% 55% 43%

Percentage Reduction between 2000 and 2010

Conclusions (part 1)

Change in the sector has been rapid and large-scale in nature

The changes have been persistent in directionWhile the recession in undoubtedly a factor,

the changes appear to have persisted through 2011

Depending on endpoints, GHG, NOx and SO2 emissions from in-state combustion have declined 11-19%, 58-60% and 54-61%, respectively

Conclusions (part 1) (cont.)

Depending on endpoints, GHG, NOx and SO2 emissions from in-state combustion plus imports have declined 3-9%, 51-53% and 39-45%, respectively

Depending on endpoints, emissions per MWH from in-state combustion for GHGs, NOx and SO2 have declined 4-10%, 51-61% and 50-58%, while emission per MWH from all in-state generation declined 16-19%, 57-61%, and 56-61%, respectively

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

MWH-Generated at XCEL Energy Riverside Plant units 6-10: 2003 & 2010

MWH-2004 minus 2010MWH-constant 2010

year

MW

H

assumed linear de-cline, 2003 to 2010

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000 GHG Emissions from Riverside units 6-10: 2003 & 2010

2004 MWHs minus 2010 MWHs2004/2010 shared MWHs

year

CO2-

eq to

ns

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000 GHG Emissions from Riverside units 6-10: 2003 & 2010

2004 MWHs minus 2010 MWHs2004/2010 shared MWHs

year

CO2-

eq to

ns

1,639,368 ton reduction de-composes to two parts: 995,047 ton reduction that would have occurred as a re-sult of emission intensity changes, 2003 to 2010, had the plant been dispatched at 2003 levels, and a residual 664,320 tons

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

GHG Emissions from Riverside units 6-10: 2003 and 2010 with Attribu-tion

emission intensity effectsdispatch effects

year

CO2-

eq to

ns

Includes the emission reduc-tions that would have been experienced at 2010 emis-sion intensity levels, had the plant been dispatched at 2003 levels

Analysis Assumptions

emission intensity changes across shared MWH (for paired years) is a good marker for the effects of the installation of control equipment, facility retrofits and replacement

the best and most inclusive measure of emission intensity effects are the observed effects across shared MWH plus those emissions due to changes at plant that would have been avoided at plants not dispatched had those plants been dispatched

all other effects are dispatch effects

Analysis Architecture

Endpoints for analysis: 2000:2010; 2002: 2010; 2003:2010; 2005: 2010

Pollutants: GHGs, NOx, SO2

Parameters evaluated: emissions (tons), emission rates (tons/MWH; tons/MMBtu energy input)

Sectoral boundaries for analysis: in-state combustion; in-state generation; in-state generation plus imports

Data Sources

In-state facility-by-facility emissions: MPCA GHG Inventory, MPCA Criteria Pollutant Inventory

In-state facility-by facility net generation: EIA-923, EIA-906, FERC form 1

In-state facility-by facility energy input to generation: MPCA GHG Inventory

Data Sources (cont.)

Electric power sector energy balance: EIA Electric Power Annual, EIA-923, EIA-906, EIA State Electricity Profiles

Out-of-state per MWH emission rates: EIA, Electric Power Annual databases

Out-of-state energy input to generation: EIA, Electric Power Annual databases

Method

For each paired year for each facility, evaluate the distribution of MWH-generated, MMBtu-energy input and emissions across the respective emission intensity and dispatch pieces

Estimate the change in emissions and emission rates

Evaluate the contribution of the changes resulting from changed emission intensity and changed dispatch to the observed facility-level changes

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission reduction between paired years (CO2-e short tons) 4,379,611 7,156,181 8,386,504 7,255,594

% distribution of reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 50% 39% 21% 11%

Dispatch Effects 50% 61% 79% 89%

GHG Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 55,188 55,493 60,393 54,654

% distribution of reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 88% 77% 69% 66%

Dispatch Effects 12% 23% 31% 34%

NOx Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 53,896 62,596 72,373 60,372

% distribution of reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 90% 77% 69% 68%

Dispatch Effects 10% 23% 31% 32%

SO2 Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO2-e tons/MWH) 1.15 1.05 1.16 1.05

1.13 1.05 1.09 1.05

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 68% 74% 68% 57%

Dispatch Effects 32% 26% 32% 43%

GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO2-e tons/MMBtu) 0.103 0.095 0.102 0.095 0.102 0.095 0.100 0.095

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 35% 43% 43% 48%

Dispatch Effects 65% 57% 57% 52%

GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0028 0.0012 0.0026 0.0012 0.0026 0.0012 0.0025 0.0012

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 93% 89% 89% 87%

Dispatch Effects 7% 11% 11% 13%

NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.00025 0.00011 0.00023 0.00011 0.00024 0.00011 0.00022 0.00011

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 89% 87% 87% 85%

Dispatch Effects 11% 13% 13% 15%

NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0029 0.0014 0.0030 0.0014 0.0031 0.0014 0.0027 0.0014

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 95% 90% 88% 89%

Dispatch Effects 5% 10% 12% 11%

SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.00026 0.00012 0.00026 0.00012 0.00028 0.00012 0.00025 0.00012

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 91% 88% 86% 88%

Dispatch Effects 9% 12% 14% 12%

SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO2-e tons/MWH) 0.81 0.66 0.81 0.66

0.81 0.66 0.78 0.66

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 28% 33% 22% 13%

Dispatch Effects 72% 67% 78% 87%

GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0020 0.0008 0.0018 0.0008 0.0019 0.0008 0.0018 0.0008

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 77% 73% 70% 68%

Dispatch Effects 23% 27% 30% 32%

NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0020 0.0009 0.0021 0.0009 0.0022 0.0009 0.0020 0.0009

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 78% 74% 70% 70%

Dispatch Effects 22% 26% 30% 30%

SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO2-e tons/MWH) 0.82 0.73 0.83 0.73

0.83 0.73 0.81 0.73

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 30% 33% 27% 23%

Dispatch Effects 70% 67% 73% 77%

GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0020 0.0009 0.0019 0.0009 0.0019 0.0009 0.0017 0.0009

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 83% 81% 78% 76%

Dispatch Effects 17% 19% 22% 24%

NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010

In-state Combustion

Emission Intensity Effects 68% 74% 68% 57%

Dispatch Effects 32% 26% 32% 43%

In-state Generation

Emission Intensity Effects 28% 33% 22% 13%

Dispatch Effects 72% 67% 78% 87%

In-state Generation Plus Imports

Emission Intensity Effects 30% 33% 27% 23%

Dispatch Effects 70% 67% 73% 77%

GHG Emission Rate (tons/MWH) Changes Across Different Sector Definitions and Spatial Scales

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010

In-state Combustion

Emission Intensity Effects 93% 89% 89% 87%

Dispatch Effects 7% 11% 11% 13%

In-state Generation

Emission Intensity Effects 77% 73% 70% 68%

Dispatch Effects 23% 27% 30% 32%

In-state Generation Plus Imports

Emission Intensity Effects 83% 81% 78% 76%

Dispatch Effects 17% 19% 22% 24%

NO2x Emission Rate (tons/MWH) Changes Across Different Sector Definitions and Spatial Scales

 MWH dispatched in 2003 but not 2010  

MWH of new dispatch in 2010

Coal 5,185,800 Wind 4,584,900

Natural gas 405,800 Natural gas 1,185,900

Nuclear 206,800 Biomass 1,024,200

Solid waste 153,000 Coal 642,900

Biomass 126,100    

  total 6,089,500   7,457,700

Resources Dispatched in Minnesota in 2003 but not in 2010 and Vice Versa

 MWH dispatched in 2003 but not 2010  

MWH of new dispatch in 2010

Coal 5,185,800 Wind 4,584,900

Natural gas 405,800 Natural gas 1,185,900

Nuclear 206,800 Biomass 1,024,200

Solid waste 153,000 Coal 642,900

Biomass 126,100 Imported power  4,793,100

  total 6,089,500   12,058,100

Resources Dispatched for Minnesota in 2003 but not in 2010 and Vice Versa

Conclusions

The largest part of the GHG reductions from in-state combustion of the last 10-years have resulted from changed dispatch, though this result depends on the endpoints chosen

This relation reverses when emission rate changes for GHGs are considered

If we switch to in-state generation, this relation changes again; the bulk of the observed changes in GHG emission rates results from dispach effects

Conclusions (cont.)

The overwhelming majority of NOx and SO2 emission reductions and reductions in emission rates have been the result of emission intensity changes at existing plant

Dispatch effects are smaller and are most evident in emission rate reductions treated in relation to all in-state generation, including nuclear, wind, and hydroelectric

Extra Slides

   units GHGs NOx SO2

In-state Combustion tons 17% 58% 58% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons 8% 53% 43%

In-state Combustion tons/MWH 10% 54% 54%

In-state Generation tons/MWH 19% 59% 59% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH 15% 57% 48%

In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu 6% 53% 53%

In-state Generation tons/MMBtu 12% 55% 55% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu 8% 53% 44%

Percentage Reduction between 2002 and 2010

   units GHGs NOx SO2

In-state Combustion tons 17% 58% 57% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons 11% 51% 44%

In-state Combustion tons/MWH 4% 51% 50%

In-state Generation tons/MWH 16% 57% 56% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH 13% 52% 45%

In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu 5% 51% 51%

In-state Generation tons/MMBtu 12% 55% 54% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu 9% 50% 42%

Percentage Reduction between 2005 and 2010

  2000:2010

2002:2010

2003:2010

2005:2010

In-state Combustion

Shared MWH 0 0 0 0

Different MWH (200x-2010) 1,036,240 2,968,757 5,148,838 5,306,296

In-state Generation

Shared MWH 0 0 0 0

Different MWH (200x-2010) -4,082,826 -1,425,461 507,294 1,044,174 In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

Shared MWH 0 0 0 0

Different MWH (200x-2010) -8,635,751 -6,218,533 -5,287,663 -1,648,198

MWH Reduction and Their Attribution: 200X minus 2010

  2000:2010

2002:2010

2003:2010

2005:2010

In-state Combustion

Shared MWH 12,283,352 17,762,449 7,549,492 -451,434

Different MWH (200x-2010) 3,679,533 29,198,825 51,808,708 54,923,341

In-state Generation

Shared MWH 11,800,711 18,653,253 8,201,135 2,994,316

Different MWH (200x-2010) -17,645,365 15,453,181 35,311,471 35,640,996 In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation

Shared MWH 18,850,263 25,820,735 16,807,724 9,436,040

Different MWH (200x-2010) -60,670,108 -29,840,993 -19,450,442 10,198,280

MMBtu Energy Input Reduction and Their Attribution: 200x minus 2010

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO2-e tons/MMBtu) 0.075 0.066 0.075 0.066

0.076 0.066 0.075 0.066

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 28% 32% 23% 14%

Dispatch Effects 72% 68% 77% 86%

GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.00008 0.0002 0.00008 0.0002 0.00008 0.0002 0.00008

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 83% 80% 77% 74%

Dispatch Effects 17% 20% 23% 26%

NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.00009 0.0002 0.00009 0.0002 0.00009 0.0002 0.00009

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 85% 81% 76% 76%

Dispatch Effects 15% 19% 24% 24%

SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0022 0.0012 0.0023 0.0012 0.0024 0.0012 0.0022 0.0012

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 93% 90% 88% 84%

Dispatch Effects 7% 10% 12% 16%

SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO2-e tons/MMBtu) 0.078 0.071 0.078 0.071

0.079 0.071 0.078 0.071

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 25% 27% 26% 22%

Dispatch Effects 75% 73% 74% 78%

GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.00008 0.0002 0.00008 0.0002 0.00008 0.0002 0.00008

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 88% 88% 85% 81%

Dispatch Effects 12% 12% 15% 19%

NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001

% distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes

Emission Intensity Effects 102% 100% 97% 91%

Dispatch Effects -2% 0% 3% 9%

SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010GHG emission reduction between paired years (CO2-e short tons) 1,595,849 4,176,310 4,963,095 6,100,518

Emission Intensity Effects 2,582,536 3,086,596 2,551,572 1,696,867

Dispatch Effects (986,687) 1,089,714 2,411,523 4,403,651

GHG Emission Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010NOx emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 65,762 67,949 65,773 63,139

Emission Intensity Effects 68,417 64,964 59,185 50,101

Dispatch Effects (2,655) 2,985 6,588 13,038

NOx Emission Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010SO2 emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 56,602 67,335 72,014 68,038

Emission Intensity Effects 70,767 73,789 74,458 60,019

Dispatch Effects (14,165) (6,454) (2,444) 8,018

SO2 Emission Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution