Peshawar Model Town

MODEL TOWN, PESHAWAR

ASIAN

Consulting Engineers

251-A, HBFC, Faisal Town, LahoreTel:042-35167973,35167445,0321-4271101 Fax:042-35167320

email: [email protected] Website: www.asiancon.com

February-2015

Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

HOUSING DEPARTMENT

Provincial Housing Authority

Peshawar

Peshawar Liaison: Panama Engineer Associate New Plaza Al Falah Street, Back Side Amin Hotel, Hashtnagri, GT Road,Peshawar.

Tel/Fax:091-5824718, 0345-9069811, 0333-9176814

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C/Mesena, no 83 - 28033, Madrid, Spain Tel:+34915320 033 Fax: +34915 325 881

email: [email protected] Website: www.grupoigb.com

Infrastructure DevelopmentPublic-Private Partnership Model

NR. DESCRIPTION PAGE

List of Abbreviations

Section-1 Executive Summary 1 to 3

Section-2 Project Description 4 to 9

Section-3 Project For PPP Model 10 to 17

Section-4 Choice of Public Private Partnership (PPP) 18 to 21

Section-5 Financial Model for PPP 22 to 29

Section-6 Conclusions-Recommendations 30

Annexure 31

Annexure-3.1, Roads Cross Sections 32

Annexure-3.2, Capital Cost Estimates 33 to 41

TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Abbreviations

Nr. Abbreviation Description

1 PHA Provincial Housing Authority

2 KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

3 PPP Public-Private-Partnership

4 BT Build-Transfer

5 PKR Pak Rupees

6 NVP Net Present Value

7 FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return

8 NRM National Reference Manual

9 Revenue Kanal Means 1/8 of an acre / 5,545 sq.ft.

10 Urban Kanal Means 4,500 sq.ft / 500 sq.yd.

11 Pak Rs. Pakistan Currency, Ruppes

12 US $ US Dollar, equal to Pak Rs.100

13 NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

1

SECTION-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Provincial Housing Authority (PHA), Government of KPK, Housing Department, Peshawar intends to develop the mega city of Model Town, Peshawar on the basis of following modes:

Land-Sharing: The land owners will be offered 25% of land so provided in the shape of developed residential plot, the development charges will be borne by the allottee; and

Public Private Partnership (PPP): The development of infrastructure on PPP basis, is proposed to be allotted to the PPP and experience so gained will be applied to other similar projects as well. The PPP selected on competitive bidding basis will be offered raw land for its development as per plans provided by PHA, and PPP will commence sale proceed on agreed rate/share which will be the consideration amount for execution and completion of works. The sale proceeds are proposed to be deposited in a joint account for its sharing between PHA and PPP at the agreed proportion.

In the Model, basic sharing formula would be as under:

PPP

Fin. Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) 17% (permitted by NEPRA for IPPs) Local disturbance, security 05% Risk factor 05% Misc. Issues-Local Security 05% Total 32% say 35%

PHA

Fin. Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) 15% Administrative-Management 05% Total 20%

The project cost estimates have been determined as under:

Total Infrastructure US$ 956.83 million Infrastructure for PPP Model US$ 601.67 million Deferred Infrastructure US$ 355.16 million Proportioning for PPP Model = 601.67/956.83 x 100

= 63% Say 65%

2

The deferred infrastructure includes:

Sewage treatment plant. Solid waste management. Underground electrification. Telecommunication. Gas Provision.

The income out of sale proceeds as such will move to PPP in the proportion of 65%, the balance of 35% will be with PHA for execution of deferred infrastructure at a later stage.

In the Model, feasibility for the mode of operation has been conducted and finale of the same is presented hereunder:

Project Model Town PPP Modality Build, Transfer (BT)

Assumptions

- Discount rate 10% - Cost of Infrastructure development

determined as per the master plan, and infrastructure so designed.

- Sales proceeds of plots per kanal will be as under:

o Residential: US$ 40,000 (US$ 80/sq.yd)

o Commercial: US$ 80,000 (US$ 160/sq.yd)

Maximum FIRR for PPP: 35% Price Variation & Price of Plot: 05% increase per year.

Cost of Infrastructure Development, Total US$ 956.83 million (present value) Cost of Infrastructure Development, PPP Model

US$ 601.67 million (present value)

Construction period 6 years NPV - PPP US$ 98.88 million

FIRR - PHA

110% of PPPs Investment; in addition to proportion of sale proceeds for development of deferred /balance infrastructure (not part of PPP Model)

FIRR PPP

35%. The excess over 35% will be available to PHA for the development of additional infrastructure to be intimated by PHA for the purpose.

3

The financial model as such is viable and is considered for its implementation for the proposed Model Town. The experience so gained may be applied for development of other similar projects. However, a part of the income from sale proceeds, FIRR-PPP in excess of 35%, is proposed to be set aside for development of either some social infrastructure within the town or may be transferred to exchequer of the KPK Government.

4

SECTION-2

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

2.1 General

The Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) through Housing Department has decided to develop a mega housing project in Peshawar; intentions are to clear the backlog and meet the increasing demands for residential plots / shelter. The PHA/Housing Department identified for the purpose, land of about 106,000 kanals at Urmar Maira, Peshawar. The objectives of the proposed Model Town include:

Increasing the housing stock in the province for Government Servant & General Public and to attract the people from other provinces for investment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Stopping the haphazard growth of Housing Schemes by private sector developers in the area.

Providing Plot to the poor segment of General public & built up House to the Government servant at affordable cost.

Appropriate service level that fulfills basic needs of different economic levels i.e. affordability level of the income groups;

Planning a comprehensive program or the development of satellite, intermediate, secondary and industrial towns to reduce migration and drift to big settlement.

Mobilizing resources and generate funds in order to provide finance for housing especially to the low income group.

Development of appropriate cost-recovery mechanisms to ensure sustainability of the Model Town.

The PHA intends to develop the proposed housing on Public Private Partnership (PPP/P3) and mode of a preferred operation is to be selected for the development of the town.

2.2 Master Planning

2.2.1 Location of the Project

The location of the proposed housing scheme is included in Exhibit-2.1.

5

Exhibit-2.1, Location of Proposed Housing Scheme

The proposed site, about 106,000 kanals, is located 13 KM approx. from Motorway (M-1) and G.T. Road on their southern side. The proposed access from M-1 would consume hardly 6-8 minutes to access the proposed Model Town.

2.2.2 Master Planning Criteria

The criteria for the proposed housing is derived from the National Reference Manual (NRM) and usually practiced in the country/KPK. The planning criteria so developed and appropriate to the proposed site are included in Table-2.1.

Table-2.1, Planning Criteria for Proposed Housing

Nr. Land Use %age 1 Residential 50 2 Commercial 5 3 Public Building 6 4 Open Spaces & Parks 7 5 Grave Yard 2 7 Roads 30

Total 100

The said criteria included in the above table will permit about 50% of the land under residential plots.

2.2.3 Site Features

a. Existing Access to the Site

The proposed housing scheme is located along Shamshatoo Road coming from the city. The existing road network is included in Exhibit-2.2.

6

Exhibit-2.2, Existing Access to the Site

b. Site Boundary-Configuration

The boundary configuration of the proposed site is presented in Exhibit-2.3.

Exhibit-2.3, Boundaries of the Project Site

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The site is bounded by Jallozai Canal in the north, Shamshattoo Road in the west, Cherat Road on the east and southwards.

c. Surrounding of the Site

The surrounding of the site is Jallozai Housing Colony and UET, Jallozai presently under development, barren and agriculture land on other sides of the proposed site.

d. Site Topography

The terrain of the site is rolling to flat; salient features of the site are included in Table-2.2.

Table-2.2, Salient Features of the Proposed Site

Features Remarks Terrain The terrain is rolling to flat Level difference The level difference is about 500 ft. Natural Water Streams Quite a lot natural water streams (non-perennial)

are existent in the site Habitation The existing habitation is scattered in the site;

four main settlements are in existent. Land Use The present land use comprises agriculture,

natural water streams, and barren land. A road, which is in bad shape passes through the site

Underlying Strata Based on existing water abstraction wells, potential of underground water for use in the proposed housing is certain.

The electricity could be provided to the proposed colony from the nearby available source whereas gas is to be managed from about location close to the Ring Road.

2.2.4 Master Planning

The planning of the housing scheme has been completed; the master plan is included in Exhibit-2.4.

9

The proposed Model Town has been planned according to contemporary principles of planning and design criteria of PHA applicable to such housing projects. The roads in the master plan are as under:

Commercial Mall (Access Road): 1,100 feet Sector Roads: 150 feet Roads with Sectors: 40-100 feet

The proposed land use of the Housing is included in Table-2.3.

Table-2.3, Land Use in the Town

Nr. Description %age Kanals

1 Residential 49.89% 52,883 2 Commercial & Parking 5.01% 5,311 3 Open/Green Spaces, Parks 11.15% 11,819 4 Roads 25.50% 27,030 5 Public Buildings 6.44% 6,826 6 Grave Yard 2.01% 2,131

Total 100.00% 106,000

It is noted from the above land use that about 50% of the total land is under residential plots whereas commercial plots comprise about 5% of the gross land.

Proposed sizes for different categories of plots are given below; however, the size of odd plots may be different.

2-kanal 75 x 120 1-kanal 50 x 90 10-Marla 30 x 65 05-Marla 25 x 45 03-Marla 20 x 34

10

SECTION-3

PROJECT FOR PPP MODEL

3.1 General The entire town comprising 23 sectors is included in the proposed PPP Mode of development. Upon successful completion of the selected methodology, the same will be repeated for other similar projects as well.

The zoning plan / sectors in the town are included in Exhibit-3.1.

Exhibit-3.1, Zoning Plan of the Town The layout plan of the Town is presented in Exhibit-3.2. The scope of development work covered under development comprises development of all sectors excluding internal development of sports, education, assembly buildings, Apartment Sector and institutional buildings which will be taken care separately.

17-Residential 1-Health(A-5)

3-Institutional / Education 1-Park(C-2, C-3)

1-Sports(A-4)

11

Exhibit-3.2, Layout of Sectors Proposed for Development

12

The characteristics of the town in terms of residential and commercial plots for sale by PPP are included in Table-3.1.

Table-3.1, Characteristics of Model Town

Nr. Description Unit Qty

1 Land to Landlord % 25%

2 Residential Area % 49.89%

3 Total Land Area Revenue Kanals 106,000

4 Total Land Area Urban Kanals 128,260

5 Residential area Revenue kanals 52,883 6 Residential area Urban kanals 63,988

7 Area to Landlord Urban kanals 21,901

8 Balance for PPP Urban kanals 42,087

9 Residential land available for Sale %age 65.77 It is noted from the above table that area for sale under residential plots is 42,087 urban kanals and 21,901 will be allocated to land owners toward land-sharing formula whereas commercial area for sale is 6,426 Urban kanals (5,311 Revenue kanals, Land use, Table-2.3 above refers).

3.2 Roads Network in the Town

Various categories of roads are included in the town; comprise 40-150 feet. In addition, the Commercial Broadway, 1,100 feet is also part of the road network. The roads network is included in Exhibit-3.3.

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EXHIBIT-3.3, ROAD NETWORK IN THE TOWN

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The length of various category of roads in the Town is included in Table-3.2

Table-3.2, Length of various Category Roads in the Town

Sr. Nr. Roads Wide Roads Length ft

1 1100' 23,956 2 150' 266,800

3 100' 130,887

4 80' 285,585

5 60' 361,997

6 50' 688,450

7 40' 583,207

Total, ft 2,340,882

Total, km 713.68

It is evident from the table that about 714 km of various types of roads are part of the PPP Model. The typical road cross sections of the said roads are included in Annexure-3.1.

The intended provisions for the model are as under:

PPP Model

a. Roads & Allied Works b. Water Supply System c. Sewerage d. Storm Water Drainage e. Ducts for Underground Electricity & Gas f. Landscaping-Development of Parks Deferred

a. Underground Electrification b. Sewage Treatment Plant c. Solid Wastes Management d. Telecommunication e. Gas

The said deferring of infrastructure is necessitated due to significant periods between the development and colonization when such facilities are either not immediately needed or may deteriorate over the period due to being in idle situation.

15

The infrastructure included in the model in quantitative form is included in Table-3.3.

Table-3.3, Abstract of Infrastructure in Quantitative Form

Road Work of various category roads Km 714 Water Supply

Installation of Tube Wells, 2 cusecs capacity No. 80 HDPE Piping, PN-8, 90 mm -250 mm Rft 1,295,000

Sewerage RCC Pipe, 9 72 Rft 1,511,000

Surface Drainage, Construction of catch pit complete in all respects Each 5,500 Battery of Box Culverts, 10 ft x 10 ft Sft 438,600

Road crossings for Electrical Conduit Single circuit containing 2 barrels of RCC pipes Rft 570,000

Double circuit containing 4 barrels of RCC pipes Rft 175,426 Landscaping-Parks

Landscaping-development of Parks Sft 24,763,000 Ducting for Gas

RCC Pipe, 6" dia Rft 701,700 3.3 Project Cost

3.3.1 Entire Sectors

The development cost of entire Town has been worked out as US$ 956.83 million, abstract is included in Table-3.4.

Table-3.4, Abstract of Cost Estimates

Nr. Description Unit Quantity Amount, million US$ 1 Land Cost kanals 106,000 0 2 Infrastructure Job 1 908.82 3 Base Cost 908.82 4 Contingencies

4.1 Normal % 2% 18.18 4.2 Price Escalation 3 0% - Sub Total for Contingencies 18.18 5 Consulting Services

5.1 Planning and Design Job LS 0.30 5.2 Supervision of Construction % 1.25% 11.36 Sub Total for Consulting Services 11.66 6 Marketing, Legal Fee, etc. % 2.00% 18.18 Grand Total 956.83

16

3.3.2 Provisions of the PPP Model The cost estimates for the PPP Model is determined as US$ 601.67 million, the abstract is included in Table-3.5.

Table-3.5, Project Cost Estimates for PPP Model

Nr. Description Unit Quantity Amount, million US$ 1 Land Cost kanals 106,000 0.00 2 Infrastructure Job 1 571.38 3 Base Cost 571.38 4 Contingencies

4.1 Normal % 2% 11.43 4.2 Price Escalation 3 0% 0.00

Sub Total for Contingencies 11.43 5 Consulting Services

5.1 Planning and Design Job LS 0.30 5.2 Supervision of Construction % 1.25% 7.14

Sub Total for Consulting Services 7.44 6 Marketing, Legal Fee, etc. % 2.00% 11.43 Grand Total 601.67

The cost of deferred infrastructure is worked out as US$ 355.16 million, details are included in Table-3.6.

Table-3.6, Cost Estimates for Deferred Infrastructure

Nr. Description Unit Quantity Amount, million US$ 1 Land Cost kanals 106,000 0.00 2 Infrastructure Job 1 337.44 3 Base Cost 337.44 4 Contingencies

4.1 Normal % 2% 6.75 4.2 Price Escalation 3 0% 0.00 Sub Total for Contingencies 6.75 5 Consulting Services

5.1 Planning and Design Job LS 0.00 5.2 Supervision of Construction % 1.25% 4.22 Sub Total for Consulting Services 4.22 6 Marketing, Legal Fee, etc. % 2.00% 6.75 Grand Total 355.16

The details of the above estimates are included in Annexure-3.2.

17

Under the situation, the split-up of development of infrastructure is as under:

Total Project Cost US$ 956.83 million PPP Model Cost US$ 601.67 million Infra Cost for PPP Model 65%

As such, while determining the financial parameters, 65% of the income from sale proceeds of residential and commercial plots will be the income of the PPP for the Financial Model to be developed for the purpose.

18

SECTION-4

CHOICE OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP (PPP)

4.1 Choice of PPP Model

4.1.1 General The option of PPP mode for developing proposed town (initially on Public-Private partnership, PPP) basis is adopted; the suggested methodology could be as under:

The Private party be selected through competitive bidding basis that will construct and transfer the completed works to PHA;

PHA will hand over the entire town free of any encumbrances measuring about 106,000 kanals;

The PPP will develop the town as per technical specifications and designs provided to it for the purpose;

PHAs Consultants will supervise the execution and completion of works ensuring that the completed works fulfil the contract requirements;

The PPP will generate funds through sale of residential and commercial plots earmarked by the PHA (prescribed proportion of residential plots will move over to the Land Owners on Land-Sharing Basis). The funds so generated will be faithfully utilized by the PPP for the timely development of infrastructure;

Upon completion of development works, the same will be handed over to the Buyers in close coordination of the PHA which will legally transfer the plots at its end; and

The PPP in lieu of financial gains out of the sale of residential plots will either develop other infrastructure allocated for the purpose by PHA to share the income in the agreed proportion as per Project FIRR.

Different options of the public private partnership models considered and evaluated for selection of preferred option are included hereunder.

4.1.2 Option 1, Development by PHA

Under the option, the entire development of infrastructure is proposed to be taken up by PHA itself and sale proceeds to public servants / general public would be through easy installments; 20% down payment and the balance in 10 equal installments over a period of 10-years.

19

4.1.3 Option 2, Joint Venture Mode

The Joint venture is a form of public private partnership in which both the PHA and the private party make equity contributions and pool their resources towards the project development and implements the project by forming a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). When the SPV is established, it will have a separate legal identity and it is through this company that the common enterprise of the public and private partners will be carried out. The PHA and the private party will own the shares of the joint venture company and there will be a board of directors made up of representatives of the shareholders.

4.1.4 Option 3, PPP-Build-Transfer Mode

The Build-Transfer (BT) is a contractual arrangement whereby the private party undertakes the financing and construction of an infrastructure project and after its completion hands it over to the PHA. The PHA will reimburse the total project investment by way of sale proceeds of the residential plots, on the basis of an agreed rate and schedule. This arrangement may be employed in the construction of any infrastructure project, including critical facilities, which for security or strategic reasons must be operated directly by the PHA. In the case of Model Town, the PPP (Developer) would finance and construct infrastructure for PHA, which will reimburse in the form of developed residential plots over and above the ones to be provided to land owners on Land-sharing basis.

4.1.5 Evaluation and Selection

Under the options as mentioned hereinabove, the preferred option is the Option-3 i.e. Build and Transfer, therefore, it is proposed to opt for the option; the option can serve as a sustainable model that can be replicated for all other similar projects.

The joint venture mode is not feasible as having SPV for every sector of the Model Town project would be an expensive option with respect to company establishment costs and legal issues.

In addition to this, in joint venture mode, the PHA might be expected to contribute to working capital, which may not be possible given the current fiscal conditions.

Moreover, the PHA has a greater risk exposure in joint venture than the BT model (where settlement to the PPP / Developer is made for work delivered) as risk would be shared.

20

4.2 Proposed Housing Scheme The proposed housing scheme under the name and style Model Town has been planned as per applicable planning standards and over an area of 106,000 kanals. The land use distribution of the scheme is included in Table-4.1.

Table-4.1, Land Use of the Proposed Town

Nr. Description %age Kanals (Revenue Kanals) 1 Residential 49.89% 52,883

2 Commercial & Parking 5.01% 5,311 3 Open/Green Spaces, Parks 11.15% 11,819

4 Roads 25.50% 27,030

5 Public Buildings 6.44% 6,826

6 Grave Yard 2.01% 2,131

Total 100.00% 106,000

The land for proposed housing is based on land-sharing basis i.e. no acquisition is involved, but land is shared with the land lords. Under the scenario, the residential and commercial and available for the PPP to sell it out at agreed rate and schedule of payment, is worked out and presented in Table-4.2.

Table-4.2, Land available for PPP for Sale

Nr. Description Unit Qty

1 Land to Landlord % 25%

2 Residential Area % 49.89%

3 Total Land Area Revenue Kanals 106,000 4 Total Land Area Urban Kanals 128,260

5 Residential area Revenue kanals 52,883

6 Residential area Urban kanals 63,988

7 Area to Landlord Urban kanals 21,901

8 Balance for PPP Urban kanals 42,087

9 Commercial Plots for sale Urban kanals 6,426

9 Residential land available for Sale %age 65.77

It is noted from the above calculation that the land secured from the landlords is revenue kanal whereas the plots allocation will be on urban kanal basis. The

21

residential land available for sale is 65.77% of total residential area, it is evident from the above table.

22

SECTION-5

FINANCIAL MODEL FOR PPP

5.1 PPP Mode-Basic Parameters

5.1.1 Inflows

The inflow to the financial determination will comprise:

Sale Proceeds from residential plots Sale proceeds from commercial plots

The sale proceeds of residential and commercial plots are estimated as under:

Residential Plot US$ 40,000 per kanal (US$80/sq.yd.) Commercial Plot US$ 80,000 per kanal (US$160/sq.yd.)

5.1.2 Outflows

The outflows of the PPP Model shall comprise cost of infrastructure less the ones excluded from the model.

5.1.3 Basic Assumptions

The basic assumptions and anticipated income for sale of plots is worked out and included in Table-5.1.

23

Table-5.1, Basic Assumptions and PPPs Income from Sale of Residential Plots

5.1.4 Cost of Infrastructure Development

The cost of infrastructure development for the Town works out as US$ 956.83 million and out of this amount, the cost for PPP Model is US$ 601.67 million, the balance is for execution and completion of deferred infrastructure.

5.1.5 PPP (Developer) Project Revenue

Residential and commercial plots in the housing will be given to the PPP as reimbursement; it will sell out the plots at a rate mutually agreed between the PHA and PPP.

5.1.6 Revenue from Residential and Commercial Area

The sale proceeds of residential and commercial plots will generate income as US$ 2,197.54 million (present value), and abstract is included in Table-5.2.

Description Amount Unit Total area of land for residential plots in entire Town 63,988 Urban Kanals Available residential plotted land for Sale 42,087 Urban Kanals Percentage of residential area available for sale 65.77 %age Gross Area within the Sector 128,260 Urban Kanals Residential Area within the Town 63,988 Urban Kanals Residential area for sale 42,087 Urban Kanals Area under Commercial Plots 6,426 Urban Kanals Sale price per 1-kanal Commercial Plot 80,000 US$ Sale proceeds from commercial plots 514,066,080 US$ Residential Plots for Sale, Kanals 42,087 Urban Kanals Sale Price for Residential 1-kanal plot 40,000 US$ Sale proceeds for residential plots 1,683,480,000 US$ Total sale proceeds (commercial + residential plots) 2,197,546,080 US$ Development of Infrastructure-PPP Model 601,673,609 US$ Price variation & Plot Sale Enhancement/year 5 %age

24

Table-5.2, Income from Sale Proceeds of Plots

Description Amount Unit Residential area for sale 42,087 Urban Kanals

Area under Commercial Plots 6,426 Urban Kanals

Estimated sale price per 1-kanal Commercial Plot 80,000 US$

Total estimated sale proceeds from commercial plots 514,066,080 US$

Residential Plots for Sale 42,087 US$

Sale Price for Residential 1-kanal plot 40,000 US$

Total estimates sale proceeds for residential plots 1,683,480,000 US$

Total sale proceeds (commercial + residential plots) 2,197,546,080 US$

Development of Infrastructure 601,673,609 US$

Price variation & Plot Sale Enhancement/year 5 %age

5.1.7 Public Building Plots

The area allocated for public buildings have been excluded in the financial analysis; the amount so recovered will be utilized in improving the cash flow during operation of the housing or alternatively utilized for social purposes like hospital, schools, etc.

5.2 Financial Analysis-PPP-Scenario

The basic assumptions-parameters under the analysis comprise:

Discount Rate 10% Period of Execution 6 years Sale Proceeds 5 years Max FIRR-PPP 35% Income to PPP 65% of total receipts Price Variation 05% per year Enhancement in Sale Price 05% per year

The financial analysis for the case of PPP option has been determined and situation emerges as included in Table-5.3.

25

Table-5.3, Financial Analysis- PPP, Scenario

US $ (millions) Total US$

(millions) Year 0 1 2 3 4 5

CASH INFLOWS

Advance / Seed Money to Developer 0

Sale proceeds of Commercial Plots 205.63 154.22 102.81 25.70 25.70 514

Sale proceeds of Residential Plots 673.39 505.04 336.70 84.17 84.17 1,683

Total inflows 0 879.02 659.26 439.51 109.88 109.88 2,198

Inflows for PPP(less deferred Infra Cost) 65.00% 0 571.36 428.52 285.68 71.42 71.42 1,428

CASH OUTFLOWS

Development of Infrastructure 180.50 120.33 90.25 90.25 60.17 60.17 602

Development of Trunk Infrastructure, %age of Internal 110% 198.55 132.37 99.28 99.28 66.18 66.18 662 Availability payment returned to Government agency 0.00 0

Total outflows -379.05 -252.70 -

189.53 -

189.53 -

126.35 -

126.35 -1,264

Net cash flows -379.05 318.66 238.99 96.15 -54.93 -54.93 165

Cumulative cash flows -379.05 -60 179 275 220 165 399

Sale of Plots 40% 30% 20% 5% 5%

Development of Infrastructure 30% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% Development of Trunk Infrastructure by Private Partner(% of infra

cost) 110% Net Present Value (NPV) 98.88

Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) 35%

26

It is noted from the above that FIRR for the PPP that:

FIRR for the PPP is 35% which fulfills the basic assumption of the financial model.

The NPV is US 98.88 million. Fifty-seven (110) % of the cost of PPP=infrastructure i.e. US$ 662 million is

surplus for allocating to additional infrastructure outside the Town or some sort of social development within the town.

5.3 Securing PHA Risk

5.3.1 Financial Close

PHA shall take bid security of 02% of capital cost of development and allow permission to start construction after securing Financial Close as per proposed financial model, which shall not be less than 10% of total project cost of PPP (Developer).

5.3.2 Irrevocable Performance Guarantee

PHA would secure its relationship with the PPP (Developer) by employing irrevocable performance bank guarantee of 10% of capital cost. The performance bank guarantee is an irrevocable undertaking of a bank to pay a certain amount to the beneficiary of the guarantee within the specified limits of the guarantee, if the bank's customer who has requested the bank to issue such guarantee i.e. the principal has failed to fulfill his obligations towards the beneficiary. PHA would secure irrevocable bank guarantee from the PPPs (Developers) bank against his performance in the development work.

5.3.3 Transfer of Plots after Completion of Work

PHA shall limit its exposure by only transferring plots after the Independent Engineer has verified that proportionate amount of work has been completed. As plots will be transferred progressively, only small portions of the project is likely to be exposed to default.

5.3.4 Independent Engineer

Third party Engineer to be engaged on mutual agreement of the PPP (Developer) and PHA to monitor progress of work and quality, and sign milestone achievement certificate before land can be transferred.

5.3.5 Step in Right

In case the PPP (Developer) defaults, and is unable to address the reasons for default with the 45 days cure period, the PHA shall have the right to step-in and

27

address the issue on behalf of the PPP (Developer) at his cost (to be deducted from Performance Security) or terminate the Agreement and continue the project either on its own or by replacing with another PPP (Developer) or contractor.

5.4 Risk Register

Table-5.4 provides the risk register specifying some of the major risks faced in successful development of the project with their risk score and mitigation strategies:

Table-5.4, Project Risk Register

Risk Category

Risk Implication

Likelihood Impact Score Risk Mitigation

Sponsor risk PHA may scrap the project.

1 4 4

Termination payment to PPP as per fair value of project (as determined by independent evaluator) that remains uncompensated through transfer of plots.

Environment risk

Adverse impact of surrounding environment.

2 5 10

a) Environment Impact Assessment and conformance to applicable laws responsibility of PPP. b) Penalty clauses in case of default on PPPs part.

Political risk

Change in government may put the project in jeopardy.

2 4 8

Termination payment to PPP as per fair value of project (as determined by independent evaluator) that remains uncompensated through transfer of plots.

Force majeure risk

Project is abandoned.

2 5 10

a) Force majeure clauses in the PPP Agreement that dictate PPP and PHA to bear their own losses. b) Insurance by PPP for insurable events made mandatory.

Construction delay risk

The construction of the facility is stalled.

2 3 6 Deduction in performance security at agreed rate of 0.33% per day.

28

Design risk Over design of the project.

2 3 6

Project design to be approved by PHA after review by Independent Engineer.

Completion risk

Completion of project is delayed, inconvenience to end users/public

2 4 8

Penalty clauses for time over run in the Agreement that start with deduction in Performance Security, and lead to termination of Agreement.

Cost overrun risk

Project cost increases beyond reasonable limits.

2 3 6

PPP to bear the risk completely and take mitigation measures on its own.

5.5 Risk Comparison

The following figure presents the risk comparison of impact and likelihood for the initial stage risks of the project:

It shows that the likelihood of occurrence in blue color and impact in orange color of the relevant risks. The Sponsors risk has likelihood of one & impact of four. There is a rare chance of occurrence and termination payments may be taken as a mitigating measure.

01234567

Spon

sorrisk

Environm

entrisk

Political

risk

Forcemajeu

rerisk

Constructio

nrisk

Desig

nrisk

Completionrisk

Cost

overrun

risk

Score

RiskComparison:Impact Likelihood

Likelihood Impact

29

The Environment risk has likelihood of two & impact of impact of five. Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) has to be undertaken before the start of the project.

Political risk has likelihood of two & impact of five. Even though the democratic government has been elected for five year term which grants stability, PHA would offer comfort to the PPP (Developer) with termination payments in case of PHA scrapping the project.

The Force majeure risk has likelihood of two & impact of five and the mitigating aspects would be managed in the concession agreement. Operating risk has likelihood of two & impact of three, performance security clause in the concession agreement would manage the risk.

The Design risk has likelihood of two & impact of three, a mutual agreement between PHA & the PPP (Developer) would mitigate this risk. Completion risk has likelihood of two & impact of four, penalty clause in the concessionaire agreement would manage the risk.

The Cost overrun risk has likelihood of two & impact of three on the scale, concession agreement would manage the risk of any cost over runs beyond the ceiling.

30

SECTION-6

Conclusions-Recommendations

Based on the financial analysis, sensitivity and risk fact, it is determined that the option of PPP mode may be adopted subject to the following terms:

1. The PPP option be adopted through competitive bidding and Town

development be entrusted to the most response bidder.

2. The financial analysis combined with sensitivity analysis to the extent that sale proceeds may not produce timely the income for the PPP, some sort of charms for the PPP may be created by way of enhanced FIRR of the project development, allowing about 35% as FIRR.

3. Under the analysis, the option of price escalation and likewise increase in

sale price over the period produces more viable option, therefore considered for its adopting. The FIRR under the option is 35% and contribution towards development of social/other infrastructure out of sale proceeds of about 110% of Outflow/PPP-development cost which will produce more development / other than the Town itself.

31

ANNEXURES

32

Annexure-3.1 ROADS CROSS SECTIONS

24'

A-TYPE1100' WIDE ROAD

65' 12' 149' 60'

4" THICK ASPHALT BASE OVER8" THICK WATER BOUND MACADAM (WBM) BASE OVER10" THICK SUB - BASE MATERIAL OVERCOMPACTED EARTH

2" THICK ASPHALT CONCRETE OVER

2%

RIG

HT

OF

WA

Y

6"

6"

2%

252'65'12'149'60'

4" THICK ASPHALT BASE OVER8" THICK WATER BOUND MACADAM (WBM) BASE OVER

10" THICK SUB - BASE MATERIAL OVERCOMPACTED EARTH


2%

RIG

HT

OF

WA

Y CURB STONE

2%

252'

CIRCULATIONPARKING /

COMMERCIALGREEN AREACIRCULATIONPARKING /

COMMERCIAL

6"

6"

6"

6"

6"

6"

LRT(FUTURE PROVISION)

GREEN AREA

LRT(FUTURE PROVISION)

30'24'

2%

6'

RIG

HT

OF

WA

Y

11NSL

B-TYPE150' WIDE ROAD

W

1.5'

GS

3'-6"

T

1'

E

3'2'

14'16'

2%

CURB STONE

6"6"

6"

6"

24' 6' 14' 16'

2%



6" THICK WATER BOUND MACADAM (WBM) BASE OVER6" THICK SUB - BASE MATERIAL OVERCOMPACTED EARTH


2%

RIG

HT

OF

WA

Y

11 NSL

W

1.5'

GS

3'-6"

T

1'

E

3' 2'

2%

6"

6"

2%

6"6"

6"6"

CL

MEDIANCARRIAGEWAY

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

MAIN SEWER

TL LTHTGAS

WATERLINE

GREEN

SIDEWALK

5'-6"

1'-6"

2' 2'-4" 4'-8"

11'-4" 4'-8" 24'

50'

C-TYPE100' WIDE ROAD

(-) 2 %

3'-6

"

3'-6

"3'

-6"

4' 3'-6

"

VA

RIES

100'

CARRIAGEWAY

MAIN SEWER

TL LT HTGAS

WATERLINE

GREEN

SIDEWALK

5'-6"

1'-6"

2'2'-4"4'-8"

11'-4"4'-8"24'

50'

(-) 2 %

3'-6

"

3'-6

"3'

-6"

4'3'-6

"V

ARI

ES

20'

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE



CL

MEDIANCARRIAGEWAY

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

MAIN SEWER

TL LTHTGAS

WATERLINE

GREEN

SIDEWALK

1'-6" 1'-6"

2' 2'-4" 4'-8"

7'-4" 4'-8" 24'

40'

D-TYPE80' WIDE ROAD

(-) 2 %

3'-6

"

3'-6

"3'

-6"

4' 3'-6

"

VA

RIES

80'

CARRIAGEWAY

MAIN SEWER

TL LT HTGAS

WATERLINE

GREEN

SIDEWALK

1'-6"1'-6"

2'2'-4"4'-8"

7'-4"4'-8"24'

40'

3'-6

"

3'-6

"3'

-6"

4'3'-6

"V

ARI

ES

8'

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE



(-) 2 %

CL

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

MAIN SEWER

VA

RIES

HOUSE SEWER

TL GAS LTHT

TWO LANE SINGLE CARRIAGEWAY GREENGREEN SIDE WALK SIDE WALK

WATERLINE

(-) 2 %

5' 13'5'13' 24'

VA

RIES

TL GASLT HT

WATERLINE

2' 2' 2' 2'-6" 2'2'2'2'-6"

18' 24' 18'

60'

E-TYPE60' WIDE ROAD



3'-6

"

3'-6

"

3'-6

"

3'-6

"

4' 3'-6

"

3'-6

"

3'-6

"

4'3'-6

"

(-) 2 %

CL

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

MAIN SEWER

VA

RIES

HOUSE SEWER

TWO LANE SINGLE CARRIAGEWAY GREENSIDE WALK SIDE WALK

5' 8'5' 24'

VA

RIES

TL GASLT HT

WATERLINE

2'2'2'2'

24' 13'

50'

F-TYPE50' WIDE ROAD

3'-6

"

3'-6

"

3'-6

"

4'3'-6

"

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

GREEN

8'

TL GAS HT

WATERLINE

2' 2' 2' 2'

13'

3'-6

"

3'-6

"

3'-6

"

4'

(-) 2 %



(-) 2 %

CL

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

MAIN SEWER

VA

RIES

TL GAS LTHT

GREEN GREEN8' 4' 16' 4' 8'

20' 20'

40'

G-TYPE40' WIDE ROAD

6" THICK WATER BOUND MACADAM (WBM) BASE OVER6" THICK SUB - BASE MATERIAL OVERCOMPACTED EARTH


3'-6

"3'

-6"

4' 3'-6

"

(-) 2 % (-) 2 %

MAIN SEWER

VA

RIES

TLGASLTHT

3'-6

"3'

-6"

4'3'-6

"

WALKWAY+ GREEN PARKING CARRIAGE WAY70'

WATER LINE

(-) 2 %

PRO

PERT

Y LI

NE

Main Sewer

VA

RIES

TL

3'-6

"

Gas

3'-6

"

LTHT

3'-6

"

4'

2' 2'2' 4'

WALKWAY

PARK

2'-6"

8 M

ETER

PO

LE

(-) 2.00 %

(-) 2.00 %

(-) 1.00 %

6" 2"

4'36'16'14'



4'

COMMERCIAL LANETYPICAL ROAD X-SECTION

(-) 2 %(-) 2 %

33

Annexure-3.2 CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES

34

Summary of Cost Estimates

Nr. Description Unit Quantity Amount, million US$

1 Land Cost kanals 106,000 -

2 Infrastructure Job 1 908.82

3 Base Cost 908.82

4 Contingencies

4.1 Normal % 2% 18.18

4.2 Price Escalation 3 0% -

Sub Total for Contingencies 18.18

5 Consulting Services

5.1 Planning and Design Job LS 0.30

5.2 Supervision of Construction % 1.25% 11.36

Sub Total for Consulting Services 11.66

6 Marketing, Legal Fee, etc. % 2.00% 18.18

Grand Total 956.83

35

Summary of Cost Estimates for PPP

Nr. Description Unit Quantity Amount, million US$

Land Cost kanals 106,000 -

2 Infrastructure Job 1 571.38

3 Base Cost 571.38

4 Contingencies

4.1 Normal % 2% 11.43

4.2 Price Escalation 3 0% -

Sub Total for Contingencies 11.43

5 Consulting Services

5.1 Planning and Design Job LS 0.30

5.2 Supervision of Construction % 1.25% 7.14

Sub Total for Consulting Services 7.44

6 Marketing, Legal Fee, etc. % 2.00% 11.43

Grand Total 601.67

36

Item Nr.

MRS 2013 KPK

Description Unit Qty Unit Rate, Rupees Amount, Rupees

1 2 3 4 5 6 7=5x6 A. Road Work

1.2 N.S Stripping Sft 212,764,096 4.00

851,056,386

1.3 3-27(a) Compaction of natural ground Sft 225,611,756 6.58

1,484,299,746

1.4 3-

07(a)+3-18(a+b)

Excavation in ordinary soil and disposal of surplus Cft 11,280,588 11.91

134,354,057

1.5

3-05(a)+3-04(a)+3-18(a+b)

Making Embankment from soil from outside source (1.5 KM LEAD) Cft

159,573,072 20.02

3,193,863,022

1.6 3-05(a) Making Embankment from soil from project area Cft 159,573,072 8.17

1,303,209,346

1.7 16-03(b)+1/1 Sub base course (50 km lead) Cft

62,865,619 66.75

4,196,491,272

1.80 16-04(b) Base Course-Water Bound macadam Cft 55,666,279 74.32

4,136,909,636

1.9 16-12(a) Asphaltic Base Course, 4" thick (10 Km Lead) Cft 25,079,480 467.63

11,727,952,524

1.10 16-12(b) AC Wearing Course, 2" thick (10 Km Lead) Cft 15,022,834 529.05

7,947,821,340

37

1.11 13-31 Traffic lane 6" wide with reflective TP Sft 2,340,882 150.00

351,132,300

1.12 N.S Precast curb stones, 14"x6"x12" Rft 11,518,196 220.00

2,534,003,011

1.13 N.S Studs - -

Flush surface type - Single Each

585,221 300.00

175,566,150

Flush surface type - Double Each

585,221 400.00

234,088,200

Raised profile type - Single Each 328,923 500.00

164,461,696

Raised profile type - Double Each 328,923 600.00

197,354,036

1.14 N.S Grassing Sft 117,044,100 15.00

1,755,661,500

Sub Total for Roads -

40,388,224,222

B. Water Supply -

2,1 N.S Installation of Tube Wells, 2 cusecs capacity Each 80 11,000,000

880,000,000

2.2 3-46+3-14(b)+3-

26(c ) Earthwork for water lines Cft 35,113,230 5.25 184,393,616

2.3 7-30 Sand bedding for water lines Cft 7,315,256 28.62 209,347,272

2.4 N.S HDPE Piping, PN-8 - -

90 mm dia Rft 2,048,272 150.00 307,240,763 125 mm dia Rft 438,915 275.00 120,701,728 180 mm dia Rft 292,610 520.00 152,157,330

250 mm dia Rft 1,463,051 950.00

1,389,898,688

38

- -

2.5 6-06(a/02) Concrete Thrust blocks Cft

219,282 257.55

56,475,949

2.6 N.S Valves- Carrot Top uPVC butterfly valve with chamber - -

3" i/d for 90mm PE Pipe Each 1,096 35,000.00

38,374,396

4" i/d for 125mm PE Pipe Each 877 40,000.00

35,085,162

6" i/d for 180mm PE Pipe Each 351 50,000.00

17,542,581

8" i/d for250mm PE Pipe Each 219 70,000.00

15,349,758

2.7 N.S Air Release valves with chamber Each 219 40,000.00

8,771,290

2.8 N.S Washout valves with chamber Each 219 35,000.00

7,674,879

2.9 N.S Fire Hydrants with chamber Each 219 40,000.00

8,771,290

2.1 N.S Water Service Connection Each 59,206 4,000.00

236,824,843

2.11 N.S HDPE 25 mm dia Service Connection Rft 2,368,248 40.00

94,729,937

2.12 N.S Overhead Reservoirs, 100,000 capacity each Gallons 6,000,000 200.00

1,200,000,000

Sub Total for Water Supply - 4,963,339,482 C. Sewerage -

3

3-45(a)+3-14(b)+3-

26(c )

Earthwork for sewer lines Cft 97,380,691 11.24

1,094,387,579

39

3.1 7-30 Bedding for Sewers Cft 18,258,880 28.62

522,530,791

3.2 23-01(c) RCC Pipe conforming BS5911 (9" Dia) Rft

1,227,981 220.67

270,978,493

3.3 23-03(a) RCC Class-II, Wall B Piping(ASTM C76 2003) - -

12" i/d Rft 1,217,259 490.02

596,481,079

15" i/d Rft 304,315 610.44

185,765,841

18" i/d Rft 608,629 764.57

465,339,719

21" i/d Rft 365,178 927.64

338,753,341

24" i/d Rft 426,041 1,053.10

448,663,276

27" i/d Rft 304,315 1,434.31

436,481,560

30" i/d Rft 334,746 1,676.77

561,292,262

36" i/d Rft 152,157 2,152.32

327,491,265

48" i/d Rft 8,200 3,635.81

29,813,642

60" i/d Rft 4,100 6,069.24

24,883,884

72" i/d Rft 3,800 10,737.99

40,804,362

3.4 N.S Construction of manholes Each 54,821 40,000.00

2,192,822,617

3.5 N.S Construction of house connection chamber Each 32,892 20,000.00

657,846,785

40

3.6 N.S Sewage Treatment Plant PE 500,000 8,500.00

4,250,000,000

3.7 N.S Solid waste Management PE 500,000 6,000.00

3,000,000,000

Sub Total for Sewerage & SWM - 15,444,336,496 D. Surface Drainage -

4.1 3-46+3-14(b)+3-

26(c ) Earthwork Cft 3,929,538 5.25

20,635,577

4.2 6-05(f) Lean cement concrete Cft 261,969 183.18

47,988,568

4.2 20-05(a) Drainage Channel Rft 2,795,542 150.00

419,331,276

4,4 N.S Construction of catch pit complete in all respects Each 5,482 25,000.00

137,051,414

4.50 Battery of Box Culverts, 10 ft x 10 ft Sft 438,565 2,500.00

1,096,411,308

4.6 Road crossings for Electrical Conduit - -

4.7 Single circuit containing 2 barrels of RCC pipes 6" dia Rft 570,134 400.00

228,053,552

4.8 Double circuit containing 4 barrels of RCC pipes - -

4.9 6" dia along with ends plugged. Rft 701,703 750.00

526,277,428

Sub Total for Drainage - 2,475,749,123 E. Underground Electrification -

5.1 HT-LT Transformers Job 1 10,481,077,957

10,481,077,957

5.2 Execution of LT - HT lines Job 1 1,439,372,921

1,439,372,921

41

5.3 Street Light Contract Job Job 1 1,063,078,234

1,063,078,234

5.4 Street Light System Job 1 3,060,654,889

3,060,654,889

5.5 Grid Sharing Cost MW 500 5,000,000

2,500,000,000

Sub Total for Electrification 18,544,184,002 F. Landscaping-Parks

6.1 Landscaping-development of Parks Sft 24,763,392 25.00

619,084,808

Sub Total for Landscape - 619,084,808

G. Telecommunication Kanal 106,000 30,000.00

3,180,000,000

H Gas Provision Kanal 106,000 45,000.00

4,770,000,000

I Machinery, Equipment Job 1 100,000,000.00

100,000,000 J Ducting for Electrical and Gas -

7.1 RCC Pipe, 6" dia Single circuit containing 2 barrels of RCC pipes, Rft 570,134 250.00

142,533,470

7.2 RCC Pipe, 6" dia, Double circuit containing 4 barrels of RCC pipes, Rft 175,426 450.00

78,941,614

7.3 Providing and laying 6" dia RCC pipe for Gas Rft 701,703 250.00

175,425,809

Sub Total for Electrification 396,900,893

- GRAND TOTAL

90,881,819,026

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