Pert cpm _18-02-2012

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Transcript of Pert cpm _18-02-2012

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Network analysis is the general name given to certain specific techniques which can be used for the planning, management and control of projects.

Use of nodes and arrows:-

Arrows An arrow leads from tail to head directionally Indicate ACTIVITY, a time consuming effort that is

required to perform a part of the work.

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• NODE:-A node is represented by a circle- Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or

more activities start and/or finish.

• Activity:-– A task or a certain amount of work required in the

project

– Requires time to complete

– Represented by an arrow

• Dummy Activity:-– Indicates only precedence relationships

– Does not require any time of effort.

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Event:- Signals the beginning or ending of an activity Designates a point in time Represented by a circle (node)

Network:- Shows the sequential relationships among

activities using nodes and arrows

Activity-on-node (AON):-nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence

relationships

Activity-on-arrow (AOA):-arrows represent activities and nodes are events for points

in time

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SITUATIONS IN NETWORK DIAGRAM:-B

C

A must finish before either B or C can start.

Both A and B must finish before C can start.

Both A and B must finish before either of C or D can start.

A must finish before B can start both A and C must finish before D can start.

C

A

B

A

B

C

D

A

C

Dummy

B

D

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illustration of network analysis of a minor redesign of a product and its associated packaging.

The key question is: How long will it take to complete this project ?

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Path

A connected sequence of activities leading from the starting event to the ending event

Critical Path

The longest path (time); determines the project duration

Critical Activities

All of the activities that make up the critical path.

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Forward Pass:- Earliest Start Time (ES)

earliest time an activity can start

ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors

Earliest finish time (EF) earliest time an activity can finish

earliest start time plus activity time

EF= ES+t

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Backward Pass:-

Latest Start Time (LS)

Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time

LS= LF - t

Latest finish time (LF)

latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time

LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

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Draw the CPM network

Analyze the paths through the network

Determine the float for each activity

Compute the activity’s float

float = LS - ES = LF - EF

Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity can be delay in its completion before it becomes a critical activity, i.e., delays completion of the project

Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no “slack” i.e.. Zero slack

Longest path through a network

Find the project duration is minimum project completion time

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CPM Network:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

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ES and EF Times:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

0 6

0 8

0 5

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ES and EF Times:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

0

0

0

6

8

5

6 21

6 23

8 21

5 14

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ES and EF Times:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

0 6

0 8

0 5

6 21

21 30

6 23

23 29

8 21

5 14

21 33

Project’s EF = 33

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LS and LF Times:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

0 0

0 5

0

0 6

0

0 8

0 0

6 21

0 021 30

24

0

236

33

21

0

8

0

0 0

145

021

3327

2923

3321

33

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LS and LF Times:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

0 6

4 10

8

0

0

218

218

127

50

12

145

8

18 24

6 21

3321

3321

21

6

27 33

2923

33

30

24

21

2710

23

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FLOAT:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

4 10

0 6

0

6

23

2710

21

6

218

218

127

5

2112

145

03

43327

2923

9 24

0

021

21

33

33

3

33324

3021

04

7

080

80

7

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Critical Path:-

a, 6

f, 15

b, 8

c, 5

e, 9

d, 13

g, 17 h, 9

i, 6

j, 12

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PERT is based on the assumption that an activity’s duration follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value

Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an activity’s duration distribution:

pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would take if things did not go well

most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate of the activity’s duration

optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would take if things did go well

te = a+4m+b

6

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Draw the network.

Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path.

The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal

The standard deviation of the project duration probability distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and taking the square root of that sum

Probability computations can now be made using the normal distribution table.

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Determine probability that project is completed within specified time

Z =

where = tp = project mean time

= project standard mean time

x = (proposed ) specified time

x -

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= tp Timex

Z

Probability

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Useful at many stages of project management

Mathematically simple

Give critical path and slack time

Provide project documentation

Useful in monitoring costs

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• How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are the risks involved?

• Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which could delay the entire project if they were not completed on time?

• Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule?

• If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is the best way to do this at the least cost?

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Parallel paths-identifying a single path is difficult when there are parallel paths with similar duration.

Time consuming-critics note that it takes too much time to identify all activities and inter-relate them to get multiple projects paths.

First time projects-CPM is not suitable if projects cannot be broken down into discrete activities with known completion times.

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PRESENTED BY:-BHUPENDRA SINGH SHEKHAWAT

ANKIT VINOD AGRAWAL

BHANU MATHUR

AMIT SINGAL

AKANSHA CHOUDHARY

KAMAL KANT

AKASH GARG

MOHIT SHARMA

ANKIT BAJORIA

MAYANK AGRAWAL