A very different world: Macroeconomics

Perspectives and insights on shipping amidst a pandemic

14 April 2020, Webinar

The other way round – from + to -

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Gro

wth

rat

e

Source: BIMCO, IMF

IMF Real GDP Growth Forecast 2015 - 2024

Actual growth Forecast Oct 2016 Forecast Oct 2017Forecast April 2018 Forecast April 2019 Forecast Oct 2019Forecast Jan 2020

Global GDP fell by -0.1% in 2009

The trade-to-GDP multiplier is declining

Trade will suffer:A V-shaped recovery is not in the cards

Unlikely rebound

Containment measures hurting the economy

It hits fast and hard, negatively impacting global shipping demand across the board

Public debt will rise as such measures are costly – but you should worry even more about the future if widespread layoffs and bankruptcies results in a severe global recession.

Composite and export orders sharply down

Manufacturing PMI March 2020

Global 47.6 (-0.4)

US 48.5 (-2.2)

China 52 (+16.3)

Eurozone 44.5 (-4.7)

Japan 44.8 (-3)

The 52-level recorded in March indicates that while Chinese manufacturing grew compared to February, it remains far below January levels.

Don’t forget the Trade War(s)

A very different world: Oil Tanker Market

Perspectives and insights on shipping amidst a pandemic

14 April 2020, Webinar

A crazy couple of month behind us…is floating storage still relevant?

As growth consumption declines, stockpiles rise

Oil volatility at all-time high

Chartering spree from Saudi Arabia

Any IMO 2020 upside left?!...

Dwarfed by pandemic effects

Scrubber/availability and quality

The outlook for 2020 and 2021

As geopolitical “support” evaporates …

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