Perspective Nr. 2 - 2011

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humanitarian and interational affairs magazine #2/2011

special report

Quest for Paradise the American dream yet again.

op-ed

Rajendra Pachauri head of the UNs climate change panel onthe humanitarian costs of climate change.

In 2010, more people were displacedby climate-related disasters than by

wars and armed conficts .

profile

Kristalina Georgieva a popular commissioner

Time To Run

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PersPectiveNO. 02.2011

Content 0211PERSPEcTIVE a humaNITaRIaN aNd INTERNaTIONal affaIRS magazINE

06OP-ED

Rajendra K. Pauchauri, Chair-

man o the UNs Intergovern-

mental Panel on Climate

Change sums up the panels

conclusions with regard to how

humanitarian issues may be in-

fuenced by climate change.

30PrOfilE:Kristalina GEOrGiEva

Kristalina Georgieva was ap-

pointed an EU commissioner

almost by accident, but she

has won acclaim in her posi-

tion as head of the European

Unions department for hu-

manitarian aid and crisis re-

sponse.

50HOmE-GrOwn DEmOcracy

Somaliland unilateraly de-

clared itsself independent 20

years ago. No country has, ho-

wever, recognised Somaliland

as a sovereign state.

46BlacK marKEt fOr

Human OrGans

In recent years, a large black

marked for human organs has

arisen. Throughout the world,poor people are willing to

have their organs removed in

return for money.

34tHE QuEst fOr ParaDisE

For many Mexicans the US re-

presents their only hope of a

better future, and every day

thousands of Mexicans at-

tempt to enter the US illegally.

10DisPlacED By tHE wEatHErIn 2010, 42 million people were displaced by natural disasters. This number is

set to increase with climate change.Konica Minolta Business Solutions Norway AS Nydalsveien 26 0484 Oslo www.konicaminolta.no

Konica Minolta products present concepts and features

which make it easy to consider the environment.

Eco-friendly innovations can be found throughout the entire

lifecycle of every device, including strict production standards,

efficient operation and intelligent recycling. Furthermore, the

manufacture of consumables, the transport of products and

our procurement policy are part of the Konica Minolta mission

to save resources and create new value.

Theres only one world. We know it takes a great deal of

effort to keep it a friendly pl ace.

It takes the right ideasto shelter our planet.

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4PersPectiveNO. 02.2011

PersPective is on sale in the ollowingcountries: Australia, Austria, Belgium,Canada, Cyprus, France, Italy, Japan,Luxembourg, the Netherlands, NewZealand, Portugal, Spain, the UK, andthe USA.

editor in chief Erik Giercksky

editorHarriet Rudd

Production manager Erik Tresse

Writers and contributors

Ola G. Alteren, Christopher Eads,Gunhild Forselv, Grete Gaulin, LindaJeanette Gresslien, Kaja Haldorsen,Roald Hvring, Ragnhild M.W. Jordheim,Vikram Kolmannskog, RajendraPachauri, ystein Mikalsen, Otto vonMnchow, Elisabeth Rasmusson, Andr

Savik, Astrid Sehl, Erik R. Selmer, LisettaTrebbi, Birgit Vartdal, Rol Vestvik, TonjeM.Viken, Adam Zyglis and Tor vreb

circulation services

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PrintingGamlebyen Graske

circulation15,000

cover Photo Scanpix

Publisher

The Norwegian Reugee Council

Questions regarding the nrc should

be directed to:

[email protected]

The views expressed in Perspectivedo not necessarily refect the viewso the NRC

norWegian refugee council

Box 6758 St. Olavs Plass0130 OsloNorway

The Norwegian Refugee Council(NRC) is an independent, humanitariannon-governmental organisation whichprovides assistance, protection anddurable solutions to refugees and in-ternally displaced persons worldwide.

over the last years humanitarian or-

ganisations all around the world have

witnessed how the changing climate

s increasing the burden o their work. The

Norwegian Reugee Council predominantly

works or reugees rom armed conict, but

we are experiencing that climate change is

adversely aecting the people we try to help.

A dramatic example is the 2010 Pakistan

oods, which displaced 11 million people,

among them 30,000 Aghans living in a re-

ugee camp in one o the regions most seri-

ously devastated by the oods. Their camp

was swept away by t he oodwater. Without

relatives in the immediate area there was

ittle they could do to help themselves and

being aliens - they were the last to receive

government aid. As a result this group b eca-

me extremely vulnerable.

It is highly probable that the number o

natural disasters and, in consequence, the

numbers o displaced people, will continue

to rise as the planet becomes warmer, and

weather conditions deteriorate as a result

o the changing climate. Ofering assistance,

support and protection to such groups o

displaced people will, thereore, constitute

a large part o humanitarian work in the de-

cades to come.

PeoPle Without Protection

In contrast to reugees rom war, those dis-

placed by climate change are oered little or

no protection in international conventions

or by international law. We know ull well

that such specifc guarantees are not alwaysenough to provide actual protection but,

nothing else, they oer a legal, moral, and

normative ramework or demanding, or ar-

guing or, necessary protection.

The NRC is thereore concerned about the

uture. We eel that this so-called protecti-

on gap should be given ar more attention

than is currently the case. That is why we

have decided to dedicate a large section o

this issue o Perspective to the humanitari-

an aspects o climate change.

resPonsibility

The UN High Commissioner or Reugees is

very clear that something has to be done to

improve protection or those displaced by

climate change. He does not, however, rec-

ommend re-negotiating the Reugee Conven-

tion in order to include this group. He is wor-

ried that the end result would not be more

protection or those in need but, conversely,

reduced protection or reugees rom war.

This is, perhaps, hardly surprising in light o

the recent hostile reaction in some parts o

Europe to the inux o people seeking secu-

rity in the wake o the Arab uprisings.

According to the Old Testament, God,

addressing Cain, asked, Where is your bro-

ther, Abel? and Cain replied, How should

I know? Am I my brothers keeper? Cain had

killed his brother, and buried him, so, Cain,

hoping to divert Gods attention, attempted

to do so by rejecting the idea that he could

be expected to watch over Abel.

Western prosperity could not have been

achieved without extensive green-house gas

emissions: now the Developing World is su-

ering rom those negative consequences o

Western economic expansion. We cannot

ignore the misery that we have been instru-

mental in causing by reusing to ace up to

our obligations to provide help or those in

need. n

nn In contrast to refugees from war,those displaced by climate change are of-fered little or no protection in internationalconventions or by international law.

editorial

Am I My BrothersKeeper

F

Take an international mastersdegree in International Studieor Peace and Conflict Studies

One semester in Norway, courses developed and taught by PRIO

(Peace Research Institute Oslo). Remaining semesters taught at Stellenbo

University, South Africa or The Australian National University, Canberra.

For more information:

www.prio.no/education

[email protected]

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The major ndings rom the report show that i

global temperatures increase as projected, this

will trigger a range o humanitarian challenges

and adverse impacts on water, ecosystems, ood pro-

duction, coastal areas, and human health.

Since 1975 the incidence o extreme high sea level

and the requency o heavy precipitation events have

increased. Available research points towards a signi-

cant uture increase in heavy rainall events in many

regions, including some in which the mean rainall is

projected to decrease. The resulting increased ood

risk poses challenges to society, physical inrastruc-

ture and water quality. It is likely that up to 20 percent

o the world population will live in areas where river

ood potential could increase by the 2080s. Increases

in the requency and severity o oods and droughts

are projected to adversely afect sustainable develop-

ment. In coastal areas sea level rise will exacerbate wa-

ter resource constraints due to increased salinisation

o groundwater supplies. Overall, hundreds o millions

o people would be exposed to increased water stress.

FOOD PRODUCTION

Climate change and variability would have serious

implications or global ood security and millions o

armers dependent on rained agriculture. Food pro-

duction and the livelihoods o armers could ace se-

rious issues as a result o complex, localized negative

impacts on smallholders, subsistence armers and

shing communities. There would be tendencies or

cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes and to

increase at mid to high latitudes at a 1C global mean

annual temperature change relative to the end o the

last century. However, in low latitudes at temperature

increases o above 3.5 C productivity o all cereals is

projected to decrease.

HUMAN HEALTH

Climate change would have signicant impacts on

human health as well. There would be an increasing

burden on communities rom malnutrition, diarrheal,

cardio-respiratory and inectious diseases. There

would also be increased morbidity and mortality rom

heat waves, oods and droughts. At temperature in-

creases o even up to 2 degrees C elsius it is projected

that a changed distribution o some disease vectors

might occur.

Small Island states and low lying coastal areas

are particularly vulnerable to the impacts o cli-

mate change. Projected sea level rise could ood the

homes o millions o people living in the low lying ar-

eas o South, Southeast and East Asia. It will exacer-

bate coastal inundation, storm surges, erosion, and

other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital inra-

structure, settlements and acilities that support the

livelihood o island communities.

MIGRATION

The Second Assessment report (SAR) o the IPCC dis-

cussed population movement in response to envi-

ronmental impacts and the attraction o large urban

areas. Human populations show signifcant tenden-

cies to adapt to inter- annual variability o climate via

migration, although migration may be the last o a

complex set o coping strategies. In some cases, im-

migration is more permanent and does not involve

large areas. For example, ater three successive ty-

phoons hit Tau Island in American Samoa in 1987,

1990 and 1991, about one third o the population

abandoned their homes and moved to Pago Pago on

Tutuila Island, putting more population pressure on

the limited economic opportunities and services o

that island.

ETHICS AND EQUITY

The AR4 concludes that neither adaptation nor mitiga-

tion alone can avoid all climate change impacts; how-

ever, they can complement each other and together

signicantly reduce the risks o climate change. Miti-

gation eforts and investments over the next 2 to 3

decades will have a large impact on opportunities to

achieve lower stabilization levels. A wide array o ad-

aptation options is available, but more extensive adap-

tation than is currently occurring is required to reducevulnerability to climate change.

Adaptive capacity is intimately connected to social

and economic development, but it is not evenly dis-

tributed across and within societies. Unortunately,

several communities and locations most vulnerable

to the impacts o climate change are the ones which

would nd their capacity to adapt most inadequate

to deal with projected changes. This raises several is-

sues o ethics and equity, which would be explored in

detail in the Fith Assessment Report o the IPC C.n

OP-ED

The Humanitarian Impact Of Climate Change

RAjENDRA K PACHAURI

is Chairman o the In-ergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change(IPCC), a scientifc

body established bythe United Nations

Environment Programand the World Meteor-ological Organization.

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) has, in much greater depth than was possible in previous assessments,dealt with humanitarian issues related to climate change.

nnIt is likely that

up to 20 percent o the world

population willlive in areas

where river-foodpotential couldincrease by the

2080s.

ILLUSTRATION bY ADAM ZYGLIS: Zyglis is the sta cartoonist or The Bualo News. His cartoons are internationally syndicated and have appeared in mpublications around the world, including The Washington Post, USA Today, The New York Times and Los Angeles Times.

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8 PersPectiveNO. 02.2011 PersPectiveNO. 02.2011

uganda

CraCk-downSince mid-April, politicians and activ-

ists have staged a series of walk-to-

work marches in order to demon-

strate against rising fuel and food

prices. Police have used violent

measures to try to stop the protests.

Several people have been killed, and

opposition leaders have been arrest-

ed. On 10 May police sprayed dem-

onstrators with a pink liquid in an at-

tempt to stop a mass-rally.

On 12 May, in the midst o the pro-

tests, Ugandan President, Museveni,

was inaugurated as President or his

ourth presidential term. Museveni

has ruled Uganda since 1986, and

was re-elected President in February

2011 by a clear margin.

Several opposition leaders have

taken active parts in the protests, in-

cluding the main opposition leader,

Dr. Besigye. Besigye claims the Feb-

ruary elections were rigged. The

President, on the other hand, has ac-

cused Besigye o exploiting the situ-

ation and trying to start Egyptian-

style protests in Uganda.

Museveni was or years credit-

ed with introducing democratic re-

orm and improving human rights in

Uganda but, o late, has been criti-

cised or resorting to anti-democratic

methods.

Syria

rising death toll

There are continual reports of

security forces killing protest-

ers in Syria. By the end of May,

almost 1,000 people had been

killed in the ongoing unrest.

Since 15 March, protesters

have been taking to the streets

demanding democratic re-

form and an end to the Baath

partys monopoly of power.

In April, Syrian President,

Bashar al-Assad, lifted the

emergency law that has been

in force since 1963, but he hasdone little else to introduce

democratic reform. Interna-

tional pressure is mounting on

al-Assad, either to initiate re-

forms or resign. In late April,

the US imposed targeted sanc-

tions against members of the

regime. Both the US and the

most important regional pow-

er, Turkey, have warned Assad

that his time is running out.

yemen

deteriorating seCurityThe protests in Yemen have been in processsince January. The regime has cracked down on

protesters, killing some 180 people. The Gul

States have brokered several deals in which

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has agreed to step

down, but the President has always withdrawn

rom the agreement at the last moment.

The security situation outside o the capi-

tal has also deteriorated and - according to the

International Crisis Group - an armed group

linked to Al Qaida has assumed control over an

area in the south.

Libya

stalemateAter months o fghting, the battle

or power seems to have reached a

stalemate. A number o Gaddafs

ner circle have deected, and sever

members o his amily have been

killed. Despite these losses, and tw

months o NATO bombing, opposi-

tion troops appear unable to achie

a military breakthrough.

At the end o May the Internation

Criminal Courts (ICC) Chie Prosec

tor requested the issue o a warran

or the arrest o Colonel Gaddaf.

Gaddaf is accused o personally ha

ing ordered attacks on unarmed ci

vilians. There is hope that a warran

will urther isolate Gaddaf. Howev

er, questions have been voiced as t

why only Gaddaf is being targeted

while the leaders o Syria and Yem

go ree. Such a warrant must be ap

proved by three judges o the court

beore coming into orce.

u: crack down on walk-to-work marches

s: security orces shoot demonstrators

lb: Gaddaf accused o war crimes

y: unresolved

h sp1

3

2

4

99,1724,881 7,727 9,6025,069 8,645

un TrOOPS Were engaged in

PeaCe-KeePing miSSiOnS in 2010.

Th num of UN toop nd y 2,4 pnt ompd wth 2009.

SOurCe: GlObal Peace OPeraTiONs, UN (Unm)

2,4%increasein

thenumber ofun troopsde-ployed in 2010.

NIGERIA

INDIA

EGYPT

BANGLADESHPAKISTAN

top five contributors to un peace-keeping forces:

1

3

2

4

PhOTO:scanpix

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Climate Change and displaCement

42 million people weredisplaced by naturaldisasters last year. 90 percent o them were victimso so-called climate-relateddisasters.

The numbers o displaced by natural disas-

ters now exceeds, by ar, the numbers dis-

placed by war, armed conict and political

persecution. In 2010, the estimated number

o reugees stood at 43 million, but only a

raction o these were newly displaced, many

are victims o protracted crises and have

been reugees or years, or even decades.

Natural-disaster displacement varies great-

y rom one year to the next but, overall, the

number seems to be increasing. This is per-

haps not surprising as, over the last 20 years,

the number o natural disasters has doubled,

rom approximately 200 to more than 400

per year. All over the world climate change is

orcing people to ee their homes.

The poor are worst aected, but people liv-

ng in the developed world are suering the

consequences as well. In 2005, Hurricane

Katrina ooded 80 per cent o New Orleans,

displacing 800,000 people. In April and May

2011, violent storms struck the US, attening

houses and killing several hundred people.

With all probability the numbers o those

killed, injured and displaced by extreme

weather will only continue to increase as hu-

man-induced climate change comes into ull

orce. It is to be expected, that in the uture,

more and more people may - or longer or

shorter periods- be orced to ee their homes,

to escape the violence and turmoil o the in-

clement weather.

These developments are causing great

concern among humanitarian agencies.

The high number o displaced are putting an

enormous strain on resources, but perhaps

a more undamental worry is while reugees

rom war and persecution are protected by

nternational conventions, it is highly un-

clear what laws and policies protect those

displaced by climate change.

Time To Run

DRoughT anDconflicT: thepastoralists inSouth Sudanvictims o botdrought and aconict.Experts disagwhether or no

there is a cleacorrelation between warmeclimate and increased levelconict. Therno doubt, howthat within SoSudan, as in oparts o Aricmany local coicts are triggby disagreemover access tscarce watergrazing resou

all PhoToS bRune eRakeREraker worksin classical Epean documetary photograbordering on photography.the past 20 yhe has travelltroubled regioin Asia, AricaLatin America

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The wilder weather is accelerating human-

itarian problems, and agencies at the ront

line o disaster response are worried.

Through our work we see that climate

change has eects here and now, says

Lisetta Trebbi, Climate Adviser at theNorwegian Reugee Council.

She gives examples rom countries

where the NRC is active: droughts and

oods in Kenya and Somalia triggering

competition or resources, in addition to

increasing the spread o cholera and diar-

rhoea. Land erosion in Burundi. Cyclone

Nargis, devastating homes in Myanmar.

I could go on and on. People are having

problems coping, and so are the humani-

tarian agencies, she says.

millionS DiSPlaceDThe projections or the number o peo-

ple who will migrate or be displaced as a

result o climate change vary greatly. For

example, the last report rom the Inter-

governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) quotes estimates that 150 million

people may be displaced by 2050. In the

Stern Review o the Economics o Climate

Change, the estimated number is 200 mil-

lion displaced persons by 2050.

These numbers are subject to a high

degree o uncertainty, primarily because

there has been no baseline inormation on

current levels o disaster-related displace-

ment, explains Trebbi. To address this

gap the Internal Displacement Monitoring

Centre (IDMC) started monitoring dis

ter-related displacement on a yearly b

Last year alone, 42 million people we

displaced by sudden-onset natural dis

ters. 90 per cent o them were victims

climate-related disasters, such as stor

and oods.

The numbers displaced by natural

asters are oten high. Experts, howev

er, agree that much o the sudden-on

disaster displacement is temporary a

victims seldom move more than a sh

distance. The eectiveness and succe

o response, recovery and rehabilitat

eorts largely determine or how lon

people are displaced. For example, i

Philippines people may remain displ

Escaping Wild

WeatherIn 2010, Russia suered its hottest summer in more than a 100 years, bringingabout droughts and sparking o wildfres. Recently the US state o Alabama wasravaged by tornados.Worldwide, natural disasters are becoming the new norm,but nowhere is the reality harsher than in the developing world.by: Vikram Kolmannskog

moRning in Dacca: Bangladesh is one o the countries that has been hardest hit by natural disasters and climate change. They are at risk rom both sudden-onset disasters, such as cyclones and oods, and slow-onset disasters, caused by rising sea-levels and melting ice in the Himalaya s.

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Climate Change and displaCementor months or years as a result o a disas-

ter that would displace people or only a

ew days, or weeks in Japan.

It is oten a question o ability and

will, explains Trebbi. How quickly can

we respond to a disaster by evacuating

people, and ullling their basic needs

or such things as ood and shelter?

How quickly can we rebuild houses and

homes? And, importantly, o what qual-

ty are the rebuilt houses? For example,

n Myanmar, we are now trying to build

houses that are more resistant to storms

and extreme weather.

many cauSeS of migRaTionThere is rarely a simple and direct corre-

ation between natural disasters and hu-

man mobility. This becomes particularly

clear in slow-onset disasters such as rising

sea-levels or drought. People have many

reasons or moving. These are oten inex-

tricably linked.

Environmental migration is part o

arger migration dynamics, explains Dr.

Francois Gemenne at the Institute o Sus-

tainable Development and International

Relations at Sciences Po in Paris. While

conducting research on the small island

state o Tuvalu, he ound that people

gave many reasons or leaving, including

amily, school, work and uncertainties

about the uture o the islands when the

sea levels rise. Even the political agree-

ment to limit the rise in global average

temperature to 2 degrees Celsius, endan-

gers the existence o some o these small

island states.

In slow-onset disasters the line be-

tween migration and displacement be-

comes particularly blurred. Dr. Gemenne

and most other social scientists recog-

nise that the degree o choice can be con-

sidered along a continuum. At the early

stages o sea-level rise or o drought,

movement is requently considered as

voluntary migration. It is one o several

options. In many parts o the world, cy-

clical and seasonal migration to obtain an

additional income is normal during di-

cult times. It is now increasingly recog-

nised that migration can also be an adap-

tation strategy, says Dr. Gemenne.

While it is hard to determine when

the movement becomes orced displace-

ment, it nevertheless remains impor-

tant, says Trebbi at the NRC. The rea-

son is that migrants are considered to

have dierent needs and are treated di-

erently in law and policy rom [involun-

tary] displaced people.

An average o more than 75 mil-

lion people were annually aected by

droughts between 2000 and 2009, but

the problems o ascribing causation and

determining the element o orce, means

that no global estimates or displacement

are available. Another challenge is that

even a relatively small number o dis-

placed people, might be a proportionate-

ly large part o the population o some o

the island nations. With less than 12, 000

inhabitants, migration and displacement

rom Tuvalu could in itsel t hreaten the

existence o the nation.

noWheRe To goIn one way or another, all countries will

be aected by climate change, but some

will be more immediately and particu-

larly aected. The IPCC highlights the

Small Island Developing States, Arica,

mega-deltas such as the Ganges-Brahma-

putra delta in Bangladesh, and the Polar

Regions.

Migration and displacement means

that eects in one country may inuence

other countries and regions as well, says

Trebbi. However, I am very critical o

those drawing a picture o oods o reu-

gees arriving in Western countries.

Migration and displacement may be

internal or cross-border, or temporary

or permanent movements, but experts

agree that it is likely that the majority

o people will remain within their own

country now and in the near uture. They

also agree that it is important not to over-

look those who do not move during dis-

asters. While some remain because they

are, at least to some degree, able to cope,

others may in act be orced to stay. O-

ten the most vulnerable people do not

have the resources to move, explains Dr.

Gemenne.

Clearly, climate change has many e-

ects on human movement. The nature

and the extent o movements will be

greatly determined by policy respons-

es, not only by environmental chang-

es, says Dr. Gemenne. These policy

responses include mitigation policies

to deal with the reduction o climate

change; adaptation policies so people

can cope with environmental changes,

and o course migration and displace-

ment policies.

The WhoS Who of climaTe changenaTional goveRnmenTS perorm their mostimportant task at the negotiations arena.Ultimately, national governments bear the re-sponsibility or reaching agreements to allthese questions and to take political actionbeore the consequences o climate changebecome too catastrophic.National governments in highly aected areasalso play an important role defning nationalneeds or adaptation measures through theirNational adaptation programmes o action(NAPAs). National policies or reducing emis-sions, integration o climate change adapta-

tion into development policies and initiativesor mitigation in aected areas, are other ar-eas o responsibility o the national g overn-ments.

The uniTeD naTionS is the keeper o the ne-gotiation process. The Climate Change Secre-tariat, on one hand, drives the negotiations bymaking all the practical arrangement or thevarious meetings, preparing the ofcial docu-ments, and coordinating with the secretariato other relevant international bodies and con-ventions. On the other hand, the secretariatis monitoring the implementation o commit-

ments under the Convention and the Protocol.The secretariat is situated in Bonn and em-ploys some 400 sta.

The civil SocieTy, United Nation programmesand the international multilateral system play acrucial role trough thousands o organizationsand individuals, oering opinions, suggestions,and both political and scientifc/technical advice.These actors come together, or individually, tothe negotiation arena, where they are allowedaccess to the negotiators and where they canshare their views and expertise without having

any ormal role at the negotiation table.Outside the negotiating arena, the climatechange issue has been promoted as the onedefning development issue o our time. Thishas led to all development actors scramblingto fnd ways where their contribution canmake a dierence on the ground. This agendais dominated by UN agencies, multilateralfnance institutions (notably the World Bankand regional development banks), large In-ternational Non- Governmental Organi-sations and local civil society organisations.Adaptation- and local mitigation programmesorm important parts o this work.

ecuaDoR:

A Two-yeaDisaster

Most migration in Ecuado

used to be been internal.

Heads o households have

ditionally ound short-term

employment in the cities o

other wealthy regions o th

country in order to earn a

ditional income. Since the

1990s this has changed.

The El Nio event o 199

1998 was unusual in both

strength and duration.

The El Nio Southern Os

cillation (ENSO) is a cyclica

variation o the atmospher

general circulation that lea

to droughts or oods. It ha

curred or millennia and th

ect o the climate change i

certain, but there are conc

that extreme events associ

with it might become more

quent and more intense.

Agriculture is an impor

part o the Ecuadorian ec

omy, and the 1997-1998 o

damaged more than 100,0

hectares o rst-class agri

tural areas. Roads, telecom

munication and water sup

networks were also heavil

damaged, or, in most case

totally destroyed. Thousa

lost their properties and j

In addition, there was a w

er economic crisis related

to a collapse o internatio

al oil prices. This combina

tion weakened the Ecuad

an economy, and there we

ewer opportunities or teporary internal movemen

Migration abroad increase

dramatically with Spain a

the EU as the main destin

tions.

main SouRce: Alvarez Gila, O.,Lpez de Maturana Diguez, VUgalde Zaratiegui, A., 2009. Edor. EACH-FOR.

alaSka:

Ice Melting Under their FeetIn Alaska, temperatures have increased by

between 2 and 3,5 degrees Celsius over a

period o 35 years, and sea ice is decreas-

ing and permarost is thawing. These

changes requently lead to erosion. As a

result several indigenous communities

have been orced to relocate. Environ-

mental studies indicate that they might

submerge them within the next 15 years.

One o the communities that have been

orced to relocate is Shishmare. Tony A.

Weyiouanna, one o the inhabitants o the

island says that since the time o his grand-

ather the water level has increasingly

risen, seasons have become shorter, sum-

mers and winters warmer, with a result-

ing thinning o the ice. The loss o land

through erosive action with an increasing

risk to property and lives has caused a dan-

gerous situation, he explains.

The only viable solution is to relocate

the island community to a nearby main-

land location that has access to the sea,

thereby making possible the continued

subsistence liestyle o the community,

preserving the culture and integrity o the

community.

The 2006 Alaska Village Erosion Tech-

nical Assistance Program established by

the US Congress evaluated the dierent

costs associated with erosion control as

opposed to relocation. It also identied a

number o governance issues that need to

be addressed, including establishing a gov-

ernment agency with authority to relocate

communities, and designated unding and

criteria or choosing relocation sites.

The humanitarian crisis in Alaska clearly

demonstrates the need to create clear relo-

cation principles and guidelines based on

human rights.

main SouRce: Bronen, R., 2008. Alaskan com-munities rights and resilience. Forced MigrationReview 31, pp. 30-32.

The loss of

land through ero-sive action with anincreasing risk toproperty and liveshave caused a dan-gerous situation.

Tony a. Weyiouanna,resident o Shishmare

PeoPle of The aRcTic: indigenous way o lie in the Arctic is is seriously threatened by clim ate change.

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No Guaranteeo Protectionby: Vikram Kolmannskog

The reugee denition o the 1951 Reu-

gee Convention does not mention climate

change or natural disasters. A reugee is

someone outside o his or her country o

nationality who is unable or unwilling to

return because o a well-ounded ear o

persecution on account o race, religion,

nationality, membership in a particular

social group, or political opinions.

Some advocates have suggested amend-

ng the Reugee Convention denition,

but there are major actors opposed to

this. The convention was drated ater the

Second World War to deal with the reu-

gee crises in Europe. Today, there is a di-

erent situation and political climate or

reugees. According to their 2009 policy

paper, the United Nations High Commis-

sioner or Reugees (UNHCR) considers

that any initiative to modiy this deni-

tion would risk a renegotiation o the 1951

Reugee Convention, which [] could re-

sult in a lowering o protection standards

or reugees and even undermine the in-

ternational reugee protection regime al-

together.

n neeD of PRoTecTionHowever, the agency is very clear thatsomething must be done. This is not an

over the horizon' issue. There is a grow-

ng consensus that the eects o climate

change are already being elt, says Dr.

Volker Trk, Director o International

Protection at UNHCR. One o UNHCRs

mandated responsibilities is to assist in

the progressive development o inter-

national law related to orced displace-

ment. We eel that it is our responsibility

to draw attention to this legal gap and to

spur reection about how to ll it.

National legislation, policies and insti-

tutions are absolutely central. Regional

cooperation rameworks should buttress

action at national level. There is also a

need to develop a global guiding rame-

work or instrument, recommends Dr.

Trk. To tackle the myriad o problems

created by climate change, international

solidarity and responsibility-sharing will

be needed more than ever.

In order to encourage high-level inter-

national discussion on displacement and

climate change, the UNHCR is both initi-

ating and participating in several discus-

sions on the topic, one o which will take

place at the Nansen Conerence on Cli-

mate Change and Displacement in Oslo

in early June.

The Nansen conerence is hosted by

the Norwegian Minister o Development

and Environment and the Minister o

Foreign Aairs. The Foreign Minister,

Jonas Gahr Stre, supports Dr. Trks ar-

gument: There are weighty humanitar-

ian reasons or establishing a protective

ramework or external displacement

resulting rom sudden-onset natural dis-

asters, including where climate change

plays a part. They are not reugees in the

legal sense, but they are nonetheless in

need o help.

Some aRe RefugeeSSome commentators and scholars have

been quick to conclude that those dis-

placed in the context o climate change are

not reugees according to the Convention.

This is a too hasty conclusion, claims

Lisetta Trebbi, Climate Adviser o the Nor-

wegian Reugee Council. We believe that

a dynamic and contextual interpretation

o existing law shows that some people

are, indeed, reugees. This is important

because we dont know how much more

we can hope to achieve in terms o protec-

tion or this group o people.

In their 2009 policy paper on climate

change and natural disasters, the UN-

HCR claries that some situations are

covered by the Convention, including

when the victims o natural disasters

ee rom their homeland because theirGovernment has consciously withheld

or obstructed assistance in order to pun-

ish or marginalize them on one o the

ve grounds set out in the reugee deni-

tion. For example, it is not unusual or a

member o a marginalised ethnic group,

or a political dissident, to be denied cru-

cial assistance during a disaster. I they

ee the country as a consequence, they

could possibly be considered as reugees.

In addition, there are oten several rea-

We could be moving toward a future where the majority of displacedpeople have been forced to leave their homes,without any right toreceive protection and support.

RefugeeS: th

Inuits, in Greeland, will perhnumber amonfrst people wwill have to recate as a resuclimate changIt is unclear wlegal rights otection and suport people dplaced by climchange can cunder internaal law.

This is not an'over the horizon' is-

sue. There is a grow-ing consensus thatthe eects o climatechange are alreadybeing elt.DR. volkeR TRk, Director o International Pro-tection at UNHCR

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Climate Change and displaCementsons why a person moves. In the case o

Somalia, several reugees mention both

persecution and drought as reasons or

eaving. I drought and conict coincide,

we will not split hairs, inorms a senior

UNHCR sta member, responsible or the

reugees in Kenya. Moreover, in the So-

mali case, many countries recognise the

displaced persons as prima acie reugees

because o the severe humanitarian cri-

sis in the country. UNHCR also claries

that there are regional reugee conven-

tions with broader denitions that may

more easily include those eeing natural

disasters. Clearly, the situation or those

displaced is not as black or white as some

portray it.

SPecial STaTuSHowever, there is still agreement that

many, i not most, o the cross-border dis-

placed will not be considered reugees,

and there have been calls to strengthen

their protection.

But why should we give special pro-

tection to them as opposed to others in

need, such as those eeing general pov-

erty? It may be arbitrary to single out the

environment as a driver o migration and

displacement, rather than ocusing on the

needs and rights o all those who are or-

cibly displaced, admits Proessor Jane

McAdam, o the University o New South

Wales, Australia. However, I also ap-

preciate that getting states to agree to ex-

panded protection obligations towards a

wider class o orced migrant, would con-

stitute an enormous political challenge.

Some experts highlight that we have

a special responsibility towards those

displaced because o the environmental

disruptions that we have induced. Oth-

ers go urther and argue that we should

have special conventions or those dis-

placed by the eects o climate change,

separating them rom the wider group

o environmentally displaced persons.

Proessor McAdam and most other hu-manitarian experts disagree with this ap-

proach insoar as it relates to rights or

the migrant or displaced person. From

the viewpoint o the migrant or displaced

person, it doesnt make any dierence

From the viewpoint o the migrant or displaced person, it doesnt make any diference whether the environmental disruption is climate - related or not.RofeSSoR Jane mcaDan

ScenaRioS foR The fuTuRe: so far, poor and undeveloped countries are those that have suffered the most as a result rom natural disasters and climate change, but in the course o the past year natural di saster has also caused enormous damage and humansuering in the industrialised world. By the end o May 2011, the hurricanes had brought about at least 300 deaths in the US.

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Tuvalu:Sinking Island StateSinking Island States are oten used

as an example o how difcult a per-

sons legal position may become as a re-

sult o climate change. These states are

threatened by sea-level rises, and there

is a danger that they may become in-

habitable, leaving their citizens literally

stateless. Whether it would in act also

render them stateless in a legal sense is

not clear.

With an average elevation o one me-

ter above sea level, the island nation

o Tuvalu is extremely vulnerable to

sea-level rise. There are also other en-

vironmental problems relating to wa-

ter shortage, waste disposal, and over-

population. Frequent saltwater oodingand accelerated coastal erosion are con-

sequences o a changing environment.

Some people still believe, that with

international support, it will be pos-

sible or the country to survive. How-

ever, more and more people are leav-

ing or other countries out o ear that

the islands will be ooded. I dont

want to wake up one morning with the

island washed away I preer to leave

now, beore I have no other choice,

says Nooaloa Petero. There are ap

proximately 3,000 Tuvaluans in Ne

Zealand. Uncertainties about the u

rather than immediate environmen

concerns, seem to be the main migr

tion drivers. In most cases, environ

tal actors are mixed with economi

social actors, such as amily, schoo

work opportunities.

Contrary to rumours in the medi

there is no environmental migratio

agreement between Tuvalu and Ne

Zealand. The Pacic Access Catego

a scheme that allows an annual qu

o Pacic islanders to settle in New

land. They are required to meet str

gent conditions, including a good cmand o English and the oer o a j

A seasonal migration scheme has a

been implemented to allow the isla

ers to come and work, predominan

ly in the agricultural sector, or six

nine months. Neither New Zealand

Australia has planned or any proa

migration policy.

main SouRce: Gemenne, F., and Shen, S.,2009. Tuvalu and New Zealand. EACH-F

banglaDeSh:Between sea-level rise andmelting glaciersby: Vikram Kolmannskog

As citizens o a delta-nation, Bangla-

deshis are used to living with and ben-

efting rom ooding, but now climate

change is contributing to an increase

in oods, riverbank erosion, cyclones

and other disasters. The country is

aced with sea-level rise rom one side

and melting Himalayan glaciers aect-

ing the rivers on the other side. A sea-

level rise o one metre would threaten

to put 50 per cent o the country un-

der water.

A high number o Bangladeshis have

already lost their livelihoods as a re-

sult o natural disasters, and have been

orced to look or work elsewhere. To-

day, most Bangladeshi migration is in-

ternal, and predominantly rom rural

to urban areas. In some cases heads o

households migrate temporarily to nd

work, in others, entire amilies move

and settle permanently.

Many people also settle illegally in In-

dia in search o a better lie. Oten they

end up in prostitution, or in sweatshops

under slave-like conditions, or are de-

ported. The massive movements that

are likely in 20 or 30 years could also

pose a threat to regional security. Oth-

ers do not have the means to migrate.

Trafcking, particularly o women and

children, has been reinorced by recent

disasters and increased vulnerability.

Bangladesh is oten highlighted as a

country that has managed to reduce

casualties and economic loss by good

disaster-risk management. The ofcialdeath tolls in recent disasters are ar

lower than in previous ones. One im-

portant measure has been the building

ostorm shelters in villages at risk. This

saves human lives, and livestock, and

resources. As a result people in these

villages eel less and are thereore less

inclined to move.

main SouRce: Poncelet, A., 2009, Bangladesh.EACH-FOR.

whether the environmental disruption is

climate-related or not.

One approach that has been discussed

s expanding so-called complementa-

ry protection. Complementary orms o

protection have been granted to people

who do not t so well into the reugee

denition, but nonetheless are consid-

ered to be in need o protection. Oten

this protection is based on human rights.

In the case o environmental displace-

ment, academics have ocused on the

prohibition to return anyone to torture,

nhuman or degrading treatment, also

known as non-reoulement. NRC has

taken this line, says Trebbi. Persons

with particular vulnerabilities should be

protected against return to the very di-

cult circumstances that exist during

and ater a major disaster. Finnish and

Swedish immigration laws even contain

explicit provisions to extend either tem-

porary or permanent protection to or-

eign nationals who cannot return saely

to their home country because o an en-

vironmental disaster.

PRoTecTion fRom youR oWn STaTeWhile much o the ocus is on the norma-

tive gap or cross-border displaced per-

sons, most people want to, or have to,

remain within their own country. This in-

cludes people moving because o climate

change and natural disasters. In their

case there is already a normative rame-

work in place. The Guiding Principles

on Internal Displacement already provide

a sound ramework to protect those dis-

placed within their own country, clari-

es Dr. Trk.

Experts are quick to admit that the ex-

stence o a normative ramework does

not in itsel solve all problems. Among

the Guiding Principles we nd participa-

tion and non-discrimination. Yet, when

the Asian Tsunami hit Sri Lanka in 2004,

certain sher olk were permanently re-

ocated inland with no means o survival

allegedly, or their own saety. However,

the danger o living so close to the sea

was not so great that tourist resorts could

not be built on their ormer land. In con-

nection with Hurricane Katrina in 2005,

the US authorities were criticised or

discriminating against poor Aro-Amer-

cans. For example, the evacuation plan

was to take your car and drive as ast as

you could out o there, but not everyone

had a car.

In some cases, correct implementation

is not a matter o will, but o ability. With

more than 11 million people displaced

as a result o oods l ast summer, the Pa-

kistani authorities were overwhelmed

by the extent o the disaster. The inter-

national humanitarian agencies were o

crucial help, says Trebbi o the NRC.

The organisation played a role in distrib-

uting tents and other emergency equip-

ment.

migRaTion aS a SoluTionWe are working with the assumption

that the displacement dimension will

in all probability be dwared by the mi-

gration dimension, says Dr. Trk at UN-

HCR. While most experts and humani-

tarians seem to agree on this, the debate

has largely ocused on sudden-onset dis-

asters, and displacement. So how should

we address slow-onset disasters such as

drought and the grey area between volun-

tary migration and orced displacement?

Dr. Trk shares some reections. Mi-

gration will be both a rational and in-

evitable adaptation strategy to climate

change processes. Migration-manage-

ment systems should be more sensitive

to the migration needs o those impacted

by the environment.

Proessor McAdam believes that this

has both an internal and an external di-

mension.

First, aected states need to identiy

vulnerable areas and determine whether

or not adaptation will enable people to

continue living in them. I not, they need

to consider internal migration strategies.

Secondly, other countries should con-

sider expanding migration opportunities

to acilitate international movement by

those who desire it.

There is agreement that some o the

most vulnerable people do not have

the resources to move at all. A particu-

lar acilitation o their migration may be

needed.

global guiDing PRinciPleSWhile there may be little political appetite

or a new convention at this time, there has

been some talk o taking an approach simi-

lar to the Guiding Principles on Internal

Displacement and trying to come up with

global guiding principles on environmen-

tal displacement. Guiding principles would

have an inormative and guiding value or

states and humanitarian actors as well as

some normative orce i agreed upon by

several states and important actors.

The Norwegian Foreign Minister, Jo-

nas Gahr Stre, sees potential in this

approach: It is quite possible that the

Guiding Principles on Internal Displace-

ment could be used as a basis or ad-

dressing sudden-onset environmental

displacement across borders.

UNHCR is pinning high hopes on the

Nansen Conerence. They would also like

to see the development o some guiding

principles. It would be an important

contribution i the conerence were to

recommend some basic principles, espe-

cially regarding the protection o those

displaced across international borders,

says Dr Trk.

Clearly, the question o protection or

people migrating or displaced in the con-

text o climate change is a complex one.

Some people should be protected as reu-

gees or internally displaced persons, ac-

cording to existing law. For others, legal

innovations may be needed. Perhaps this

year will see the development o some

Nansen Principles.

main SouRceS:Climate change and displacement, Forced Mi-gration Review 31, 2008.Inormal Group on Migration/Displacement andClimate Change o the IASC, 2008.Climate Change, Migration and Displacement:Who will be aected?: Working paper submittedby the inormal group on Migration/ Displace-ment and Climate Change o the IASC. UN-FCCC.Kolmannskog, V., 2009. Climate Changed: Peo-ple Displaced. Oslo: NRC.Ramesh, R., 2008. Paradise almost lost: Mal-dives seek to buy a new homeland.Guardian, 10 November 2008, available at:http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/10/maldives-climate-change [accessed 29April 2011]UN High Commissioner or Reugees, ClimateChange, Natural Disasters andHuman Displacement: A UNHCR Perspective,

14 August 2009, available at: http://www.unhcr.org/reworld/docid/4a8e48b2.html [accessed27 April 2011]CRED (Centre or Research on the Epidemiolo-gy o Disasters), 2010. 2010 Disastersin Numbers.IDMC, 2011. Preliminary fgures or 2010.IPCC, 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report.Kolmannskog, V., 2009. Climate Changed: Peo-ple Displaced. Oslo: NRC.Under-Secretary-General or Humanitarian A-airs and Emergency Relie Coordinator, 2008.Opening Remarks. Dubai International Humani-tarian Aid and Development Conerence and Ex-hibition. Dubai 8 April 2008.

SeRiouS PRoblem: while a sinking island-state scenario is a serious one, the number o peaected will be relatively small. E lsewhere, millions may be threatened. The man pictured his just one o the 11 million people displaced by the oods in Pakistan.

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The worlds leaders are locked in a battle over futureglobal power, causing the worst possible environmentfor reaching the consensus needed to reduce climatechange.

Deadlockedby: Linda Jeanette GresslienEveryone agrees that climate change

must be addressed now, beore the conse-

quences become unmanageable. Even so,

there is little or no progress in internation-

al negotiations on emission reductions.

Why are global leaders so incapable o

reaching consensus?

The answer to that is complex, but a

undamental aspect is the geopolitical ri-

valry between China and the US. Neither

country wants to be the rst to commit to

reductions in green house gas emissions

that may jeopardize economic expansion.

As long as US domestic concerns make

t impossible to win Senate approval or

emission restrictions, little progress will be

orthcoming on the international scene.

Their xation on each other necessarily

paralyses international cooperation, given

that the US is unable to implement eec-

tive climate policies due to its domestic po-

itical situation, says Proessor Sebastian

Oberthr, Academic Director o the Insti-

tute or European Studies at the Vrije Uni-

versiteit in Brussels.

The uS, china anD euOver the past three decades, nine environ-

mental treaties have been negotiated and

signed by the US, including the 1997 Kyo-

to Protocol. None received enough votes

to enable Senate ratication, and it now

seems clear that within the US administra-

tion there is no wish or a new agreement

because they are themselves unable to

commit to much action.

When no pre-existing domestic regu-

lation exists, powerul interest groups,

like the oil, coal, utility and manuactur-

ing industries, ear environmental legisla-

tion will hurt them economically. Senators

rom regions highly dependent on these

industries, thereore, consistently vote

against the introduction o mandatory cli-

mate- policy measures.

A more useul approach to unlocking the

situation would be to establish a coalition

between China and the other advanced de-

veloped countries, Oberthr believes. He

thinks such an agreement would have vital

inuence on the US domestic climate de-

bate, thereby creating possibilities or the

US to implement measures linked to the

agreement. Such an agreement would also

make it possible or the EU to regain a lead-ing position in the global climate debate.

Ever since the negotiations on the Cli-

mate Change Convention in 1991, the EU

has been a driving orce in the shaping o

international climate policies. With a tar-

get o a 30 per cent emission reduction,

the EU is still trying to push emission re-

ductions internationally, but in Copen-

hagen the EU learned the lesson that, as

a medium-sized power in climate politics

- when compared to the two biggest emit-

Over the three past decades, nine environmental treatieswere negotiated and signed by the US, including the 1997 Kyotoprotocol, but did not receive enough votes or Senate ratifcation

SoluTionS: adaptation measures might reduce displacement caused by climate-change. However, only an international ag reement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can signifcantly reduce the risk owidespread uture displacement. The photo shows a group o displaced people rom southern Ethiopia. The woman on the stretcher is pregnant, and too weak to walk.

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ters, the US and China - it cannot deter-

mine neither the agenda or the outcome

onegotiations

PReScRiTPTion foR DiSaSTeRDuring the Copenhagen Climate coner-ence in 2009, several issues proved impos-

sible to resolve, including the number o

international agreements to be negotiated,

the uture o the Kyoto Protocol; i.e. the

targets or maximum global temperature

increase, carbon concentrations and ag-

gregate emission reductions, the method

o determining country targets, and the

role o agricultural and orestry policies.

Only two main outcomes were pro-

duced; the tentative political declara-

tion and the continuation o UN nego-

tiations. The Copenhagen Accord is an

agreement among heads o governments

alluding to limiting temperature rise to

2 degrees Celsius. Targets or industrial-

ized countries and actions or developingcountries were set to be dened volun-

tarily; an outcome that WAS - according

to James Hansen, head o the NASA God-

dard Institute or Space Studies in New

York City - grossly unair to the next gen-

eration, and a prescription or di saster.

We cannot seem to nd a nation that

is willing to stand up and tell the truth. I

we allow warming o 2 degrees Celsius,

we will have set the planet on an unstop-

pable course back toward Pliocene con-

ditions, when sea level was 15-25 meters

higher than today, Hansen says.

abDicaTionS of ReSPonSibiliTieSAccording to Bjrn Samset, senior re-

search ellow at the Center or Inter-national Climate and Environmental

Research, global leaders acknowledge hu-

man-induced climate change, and its con-

sequences. He underlines, however, that

one important challenge is the abdication

o responsibilities.

Frustration at the lack o results in glob-

al negotiations has led politicians and en-

vironmental activists, such as, or exam-

ple, ormer Caliornia Governor, Arnold

Swarzenegger, to initiate talks at a sub-

The coPenhagen ac-coRD non binDingcommiTmenT

TemPeRaTuReS - Governments will

work to combat climate change"recognizing the scientifc view thatthe increase in global tempera-ture should be below 2 degreesCelsius"

gReenhouSe gaS emiSSionS - TheAccord does not set targets orgreenhouse gas emissions exceptto urge "deep cuts in global emis-sions".

aDaPTaTion - The Accord prom-ises to help countries adapt tothe damaging impacts o climate

change such as droughts, stormsor rising sea levels.

2020 TaRgeTS - In an annex, richnations list national goals or cutsin greenhouse gas emissions, and

developing nations set measuresto slow the rise o emissions by2020.

veRificaTion - Developed nationswill submit emissions goals orUN review. Developing nations'actions will be under domes-tic review i unded by their ownbudgets but "subject to interna-tional measurement, reporting andverifcation" when unded by or-eign aid.

DefoReSTaTion - The text sees a"crucial role" or slowing deorest-

ation trees store carbon dioxideas they grow.

maRkeTS - The accord says coun-tries will "pursue various ap-proaches, including opportunities

to use markets" to curb emissions.aiD - Developed nations promisenew and additional unds "ap-proaching $ 30 billion or 2010-12" to help developing countries.In the longer term, "developedcountries commit to a goal o mo-bilizing jointly $100 billion a yearby 2020". S ources o fnance arenot settled.

gReen funD - Countries will setup a "Copenhagen Green ClimateFund" to help channel aid. Thedeal will also set up a "Technology

Mechanism" to accelerate use ogreen technologies.

RevieW - The accord will be re-viewed in 2015.

kyoTo PRoTocolThe Kyoto Protocol is an inter-national agreement linked to thUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Themajor eature o the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targetor 37 industrialized countriesand the European community oreducing greenhouse gas emis-sions. These amount to an aver-age o fve per cent against 199levels over the fve-year period2008-2012.

aDaPTing: the changing weather and climate is orcing people to take measures to adapt to new circumstances. Many move to large, urban centres where they end up among the urban poor.

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Somalia:Secondary Displacementby: Vikram Kolmannskog

Most Somalis are pastoralists, and they

have always moved to greener pastures

during droughts. A dierence now is that

the droughts aect even the traditional

areas they migrated to in times o hard-

ship. Some resort to erratic and abnor-

mal migration. Others settle in the citieswhere they oten become part o the ur-

ban poor.

There are also massive movements to

areas with rain. Today, mobile phones

enable people to inorm each other

about areas o rainall, and as a result

wealthier pastoralists transport large

numbers o livestock by trucks to these

areas, thereby creating a sudden and

massive pressure on pasture land. This,

in turn, oten makes the area more prone

to environmental degradation; which

creases competition or scarce resou

causes conict, and triggers urther d

placement.

Drought also contributes to anoth

orm o secondary and long-distance

placement. In war-torn South and Ce

tral Somalia, some people rst escap

the violence in Mogadishu and go to

countryside, or another Somalian tow

but drought and environmental degr

tion in these areas, orce them to mo

urther. Some end up in Kenya or oth

countries.

main SouRce: Kolmannskog, V., 2010. Climchange, human mobility, and protection: Initevidence rom Arica. Reugee Survey Qua29, pp. 103-119.

In war-tornSouth and CentralSomalia, some people

frst escape the violencein Mogadishu and goto the countryside,or another Somaliantown, but drought andenvironmental degra-dation in these areas,

orce to move urther.

Our parents hon-estly did not know thattheir actions could harm

uture generations, we,the current generation,can only pretend that wedid not know.JameS hanSen, NASA Goddard Institute orSpace Studies

national level. While such talks may have

a more realistic chance o reaching agree-

ment on emission reductions, other ex-

perts stress the importance o continuing

the process towards an eective legally

binding multilateral ramework, because

ultimately - that is what is needed or air,

sustained and eective global action.

James Hansen, however, stresses that

the only way o going global is to im-

pose an across-the-board ee on all ossil

uels. He nds that the Kyoto protocol has

proved to be inefcient; emissions were

increasing by 1.5 per cent annually prior

to the protocol; since then they have in-

creased 2.5 per cent per year. In order to

have a chance o stabilizing the climate,

he claims, emissions would need to de-

crease by 5 per cent annually. Instead

ossil uels are currently subsidized, both

directly and indirectly. Since countries

like China and India never will accept a (n

emission) cap, a carbon ee is the only ap-

proach to a rapid decrease in emissions.

noRTh SouTh inJuSTiceIn act, a majority o developing countries

reject any limitation o their uture emis-

sions in order to solve a problem that, so

ar, has largely been created elsewhere.

Powerul industrial nations, on the other

hand, ear losing comparative advantages

and reuse to curtail their own excesses un-

less developing countries make similar sac-

rices. At the Cancun conerence, the West

accepted voluntary actions by developing

countries and agreed to provide partial -

nance. Nevertheless, the money and con-

cessions had little impact on negotiations;

China, Brazil and India never reciprocated

with any compromises. Thus negotiations

o these reorms remain ambiguous. A pos-

sible solution is or the North to provide

large-scale nancial and technical support,

but there exists a trust issue.

The South ear that i it were to accept

its air share o the climate burden, the

North would take unair advantages o itsexibility, holding it hostage to its newly-

made commitments while continuing to

dodge their own. The North doubts that

the South is committed to solving the cli-

mate problem, and ear being locked to

a system in which the North are obliged

to nance climate measures, whilst the

South are allowed to ree ride orever.

inTeRgenaTaTonal inJuSTiceBjrn Samseth states that there is no long-

er an issue o whether or not we will ex-

ceed global 2C target; it will most certain-

ly happen, but we can delay the process,

giving us time to adjust.

It is highly unlikely that the November

2011 Climate Conerence in South Arica

will provide any tangible results. One

o the major issues will most certainly

be the question o the international le-

gal ramework or cooperation, and in

particular the uture o the Kyoto Proto-

col. The EU is likely to ace considerable

pressure to agree to a second commit-

ment period under the Protocol, thereby

securing its continuation beyond 2012.

However, among the negotiating parties,

nancial interests still seem to outweigh

climate-change concerns, and experts

and activists do not hold high hopes that

an agreement will be reached.

According to Hansen the basic issue

should not be economics, but inter-genera-

tional justice.Our parents honestly did not

know that their actions could harm uture

generations, we, the current generation,

can only pretend that we did not know.

SouRceS:EU Leadership on Climate Change: Living up tothe Challenges - Article by Pro. Dr. SebastianOberthr.Global Climate Governance ater Cancun: Op-tions or EU Leadership - Article by Pro.Dr. Se-

bastian Oberthr.Signed but Not Ratifed: Limits to U.S. Participa-tion in International Environmental Agreements -Article by Guri Bang (CICERO).Innside Copenhagen: The State o Climate Gov-ernance - Article by Radoslav S. Dimi trov.The Case or Young People and Nature: A Pathto a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future - Articleby James Hansen ( Columbia University EarthInstitute, New YorkReuters- Factbox: The Copenhagen Accord andglobal warming.http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/03/31/us-climate-accord-actbox-idUS-TRE62U1B120100331

aDaPTaTion To climaTechange

examPleS of aDaPTion meThoDS:

human healTh

Moderate temperature increases byplanting trees Prepare grain storages or emergency

eeding stations

WaTeR

Promote shore protection techniques Improve early warning systems and

ood hazard maps or storms Protect water supplies rom contami-

nation by saltwater

agRiculTuRe anD foReSTRy

Alter the timing o planting dates toadapt to changing growing conditions Alter cropping mix and orest species

that are better suited climate change Breed new plant species and crops

that are more tolerant to climate change.

uniTeD naTionS fRame-WoRk convenTion on cli-maTe change (unfccc)

The parties to the convention have metannually since 1995 in a Conerences othe Parties (COP) to assess progress indealing with climate change.

1997 - coP 3: Kyoto, Japan. Most industri-alized countries and some central Euro-pean economies in transition agreed tolegally binding reductions in greenhousegas emissions or the period 2008-2012.The protocol was rejected by the US in2001.

2009 coP 15: Copenhagen, Denmark.The overall goal was to establish a newglobal climate commitment rom the pe-riod rom 2012 onward. The negotiationshad unresolved issues and resulted onlyin a non-binding agreement The Co-penhagen Accord.

2010 - coP 16: Cancun, Mexico. The con-erence ailed to achieve a second com-mitment period or the Kyoto Protocol,but reassured a continued process under

the UN ramework. It agreed a "GreenClimate Fund", a "Climate TechnologyCentre" and the need or internationalcoordination and cooperation with regardto climate change induced displacement,migration and planned relocation. TheCancun agreements are criticized or notproviding concrete proposals or how theclimate und will be fnanced.

2011- coP 17: Durban, South Arica. A pri-mary ocus o the next conerence will beto secure a global climate agreement asthe Kyoto Protocols frst commitment pe-riod (2008-2012) is about to end.

DRoughT: drought and soil erosion present a serious problem in many parts o the world. This photograph is o a dried-out river bed in Tigray, EthiopiaIn Somalia, droughts are a n important cause o displacement, whilst Guatemal a, Honduras and Nicaragua have suered several seasons o severedrought.

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DiSPlaceDby naTuRalDiSaSTeRS

figuRe 1: 2008-2010 Countries with the highest levels o displacement

Europe andOceania

Asia Americas Arica

Asia was consistently the continent mostaected in terms o the absolute numberand percentage o people displaced. Itwas also the continent where the eventswith the highest number o people dis-placed took place. The Americas and thenArica tend to ollow Asia as the secondand third most aected continents.

From a global perspective, large-scaledisasters dominated the fgures and theworlds attention, and caused more than90 per cent o total displacement re-ported each year. The most dramatic di-erence between each year can be un-derstood by the size and number o thelargest events or mega-disasters.

numbeR of PeoPle DiSPlaceD (millionS)

cauSe of DiSPlacemenT 2008 % 2009 % 2010 %

climaTe-RelaTeD DiSaSTeRS 20.3 56% 15.2 91% 38.3 90%

geoPhySical DiSaSTeRS 15.8 44% 1.5 9% 4.0 10%

ToTal 36.1

16.7

42.3

The orced displacement o men, women and children rom their homes

by natural disasters is a large-scale, global phenomenon. A report newly re-

leased by the Norwegian Reugee Councils Internal Displacement Monitor-

ing Centre, highlights the magnitude o the problem:

At least 42.3 million people were newly displaced by sudden-onset

natural disasters in 2010.

Climate related hazards, such as oods and storms, were responsible or

most o the displacement each year, and as such the most important driver

o displacement. With climate change accelerating, this is a challenge that is

expected to grow.

figuRe 2: The scale o disasters triggering displacement relative to the global estimate or each year

2008

2008

100 000 000

90 000 000

80 000 000

70 000 000

60 000 000

50 000 000

40 000 000

30 000 000

20 000 000

10 000 000

0

50 000 000

45 000 000

40 000 000

35 000 000

30 000 000

25 000 000

20 000 000

15 000 000

10 000 000

5 000 000

0

2009

2009

2010

2010

all yeaRS

Displacement by medium-small disas-ters (Less than 100,000 displaced perevent)Displacement by large disasters(100,000 - 999,999 displaced per event)Displacement by mega-disasters(1 million and over displaced per event)

While the global estimates highlight therole o the largest disasters and their im-pact on the scale o displacement g lob-ally, smaller scale disasters are ar l ess

visible. It is more difcult to fnd dataor some countries and regions than orothers. Improved data collection and in-creased sharing o inormation should bepromoted to strengthen the monitoringand response to displacement.

43 MILLION DISPLACED

ORDINARY PEOPLE DOINGEXTRAORDINARY WORK

www.norcapweb.no

NORCAP (Norwegian Capacity) is the worlds most frequentlyused emergency standby roster. Since 1991 we have secondedpersonnel to more than 6000 assignments globally. NORCAP

consists of 850 ordinary women and men who are ready to deployto international operations within 72 hours.

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profile Kristalina GeorgievaShe became EU commissioner almost by accident,but Kristalina Georgievasleadership of the European Unions department for humanitarian aid and crisisresponse has brought her both praise and popularity.

Preparing forDangerous TimesI oten say that I have the best job in the Commission, because

t is about helping people in their most dire moment o need.

But it is also the worst job, because there are so many people

who need help, and unortunately these numbers are not de-

clining, Georgieva explains.

PASSIONATE TRAVELLER

My interview with Georgieva takes place in her spacious oce

n the Berlaymont building in Brussels. It is the end o a busy

day, in particular or Georgieva, who had spent the previous

night travelling back rom Washington. Nonetheless she shows

no sign o jet lag.

I was well trained in my previous job in the World Bank,

she says, that position also required a lot o travelling, and I

have a very good team that provides the help I need to be able

to maintain the energy my job requires.

Travelling takes up a lot o her time. In addition she also has

to travel to Soa in order to spend time with her amily. Her

husband and daughter live in the Bulgarian capital, Soa. Fortu-

nately she claims to be a passionate traveller.

CONFLICT AND DISASTER

In recent months, much o Georgievas time has been dedicated

to orming and implementing EU policies designed to alleviate

the grim consequences o the Arab uprisings. In early March,

as part o this eort, she travelled to Tunisia to inspect camps

which were being overwhelmed by tens o thousands o migrantworkers feeing the violence in Libya. She has also been deeply

nvolved in the successul evacuation o between 5 and 6,000

European Union citizens rom Libya, and the EUs eorts to as-

sist the more than 700,000 third country nationals, that fed

Libya, to return home.

As events unolded in North Arica and the Middle East, ca-

tastrophe struck on the other side o the world, in Japan. At the

end o March, Georgieva was the rst high-level internation-

al politician to visit Japan to witness the consequences o the

earthquake, the subsequent tsunami, and nuclear crisis that

struck the country.

INTERNATIONAL CAREER

Though still frmly linked to her home country through am-

ily ties, Kristalina Georgieva has not worked in Bulgaria since

1991. She let to pursue a career as an environmental econo-

mist, frst as a visiting proessor at a number o universities

around the world, later as a consultant to the World Bank,

which very soon decided to employ her. In the course o the

next 16 years she rose through the World Bank hierarchy, run-

ning World Bank programmes in Russia, Asia, China and the

Pacifc region, beore becoming Vice-President o the Bank in

2008.

She remained in this position until, quite unexpectedly

and it the middle o the night - Bulgarian Prime Minister,

Boyko Borisov phoned to ask i she would agree to become

Bulgarias nominee to the EU Commission. Only a ew days

earlier, Borisovs frst choice or the position, Bulgarian or-

eign minister, Rumina Jeleva, had come under strong pres-

sure during a hearing beore the European Parliament, when

representatives started raising doubts about her qualifca-

tions and fnancial interests.

I took the job or two reasons; it was necessary or Bulgaria

to nominate a new candidate as quickly as possible and, giv-

en the nature o the portolio, I elt that that I was qualied,

Georgieva says.

A POPULAR POLITICIAN

In the short time she has been in oce, Kristalina Georgievahas managed to impress many people, both in Brussels and

beyond. 11 months ater she became a commissioner, readers

o the Brussels based EU-aairs newspaper, European Voice,

named her both European Commissioner o the Year and Euro-

pean o the Year. Her success was endorsed by NGO representa-

tives, colleagues and associates in the EU capital.

These rewards also triggered praise and enthusiasm in her

home country. The Bulgarian media speculated in the possi-

bility that Georgieva might stand as presidential candidate or

the ruling centre-right party GERB in the 2011 presidential elec-

tions. These rumours have since been denied.

There isa new breed

of politicianswho support

left-wing orright-wing views

depending onthe issues. I am

one of them.

By: Birgit Vartdal

EU COmmISSIONER: Kristalina Georgieva is one o the worlds most inuential aid politicians. As head o the EUs department or humanitarian responshe controls the worlds second largest aid budget. Photo: European Parli

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CONSERVATIVE AND LEFT-WING

Georgieva is not member o any political party, and she has

been a technocrat all her lie. She does, however, have strong

inks to GERB. Asked to place hersel upon the traditional let-

wing, right-wing political spectrum, she says:

There is a new breed o politicians who support let-wing

or right-wing views depending on the issues. I am one o them.

When it comes to scal matters and economic discipline, I

place mysel on the conservative side. In issues related to de-

velopment, human rights and the envi-

ronment, I belong to the political let.

GERB is a centre-right party, but it is also

a party that on many domestic issues

acts more like a centre-let party, she ex-

plains.

Kristalina Georgieva does ollow Bul-

garian politics, but it is EU policy that lls

her agenda.I always ocus on the job I have. As

ong as I am in this job it has my ull dedi-

cation ,and I have three and a hal years

to go, she laughs.

DANGEROUS FUTURE

When Georgieva came into oce, one o her rst policy initia-

tives was to start preparing the EU or a uture that was likely

to experience more requent and more serious disasters. Her

communication on strengthening European disaster response

was published in October last year.

This is a very pragmatic approach to strengthening Europes

ability to deliver support in times o disaster. It has ve clear

and concrete steps: rstly, introduce more scenario planning;

in other words, anticipate what type o disasters that are likely

to happen, secondly, appraise the EUs collective humanitarian

resources, thirdly, determine what resources we do not have,

and decide on the best ways o acquiring them, ourthly, organ-

ise our logistics and transport in advance and, nally, establish

a European emergency response-centre to coordinate our ac-

tions, she explains.

The new European emergency re-

sponse centre is scheduled to be opera-

tional at the end o 2011.

AID IN TImES OF CRISIS

Another topic keeping Kristalina Geor-

gieva busy, is the ongoing debate over the

EUs multi-annual nancial ramework.Her aim is to secure an annual outlay o 1

billion euro or humanitarian aid, an ob-

jective she thinks it should be possible to

achieve even in times o nancial crisis.

I think we have a strong case. We need to relate this und-

ing request to events that have taken place over the last years.

Needs are increasing, and EU spending on humanitarian meas-

ures has already reached a level o a billion euro or more. We

have made a commitment to the UN to spend 0.7 per cent o

our GDP or development purposes, including humanitarian

aid, Georgieva argues.

AID AND INDEPENDENCy

The debate over the new long term EU budget has also created

concerns about the independent standing o humanitarian aid.

Reports earlier this year suggested that the humanitarian aid

dossier could all under the purview o the blocs new external

action service led by Catherine Ashton.

Over my dead body! Kristalina Georgieva exclaimed (accord-

ing to the EUobserver) when, in February, she was conronted

with these rumours in ront o a Brussels audience. Now, a ew

months later, her response is more relaxed.

She says she is confdent that EU aid will

never become a oreign policy tool, as it is,

or example, in the United States.

I am very confdent that Europe has

made the right choice to keep humanitar-

ian aid impartial, independent and neutral.

In 2009, or the frst time, Europe also es-

tablished a commissionaire o humanitar-ian aid, and it is my duty to protect this in-

dependence, she says, characterising the

uncertainty still voiced among humanitar-

ian aid workers as a natural reaction to the ongoing changes in the

EU administration.

When change takes place, there is o course uncertainty, as

well as a risk o wrong decisions being made. But we are now

beyond that stage; rstly, it is now clear that the humanitar-

ian unding instrument will be independent rom the oreign

policy instrument. Secondly, it has been decided that my ser-

vice will stay outside the external action service. And thirdly,

we have -via precedence established a working partnershi

in which we collaborate without sacricing the independe

that is so important or humanitarian workers, the EU aid

chie adds.

SOLIDARITy

In her recent visits to Japan and Libya, Kristalina Georgieva

was impressed by the resilience shown by ordinary people

ing under dicult circumstances. In her blog she chronicle

her personal impressions rom the e

and refects upon what lessons can b

learned rom these tragedies.

While Libya and the Ivory Coast a

marked by conficts grounded in sup

pression o some people by others. In

pan it was a orce o nature that brou

the country to its knees. This taught

that even the best prepared [or t ackling disasters] are no longer sae. My

counterpart on disasters in the US sa

something very important when we m

recently. He said: while we have a tradition to prepare or t

disasters we can imagine, we now have to prepare or the u

thinkable - or the disasters we dont have the skills to addre

would add that in the ace o disasters we all have to be hum

and accept that we need to build global solidarity, because

the uture it will no longer be a question o developed coun

helping developing countries, it will be about human race,

ryone helping each other, says Kristalina Georgieva.

KRISTALINA

GEORGIEVA

BORN: Sofa, Bulgaria, 1953

EDUCATION: M.A in Political Ecoomy Sociology (1976). Ph.D inEnvironmental Economics (198

CAREER: currently serving as European commissioner or inter-national co-operation, humanitaian aid and crisis response. Shestarted her career as assistant,then proessor at the Universityo National and World EconomySofa (1977-93). Later she hepositions as visiting proessor aa number o universities aroundthe world. In 1992, she becamea consultant to the World Bankon environmental policy. In thecourse o the next 16 years sherose through the hierarchy, run-ning programmes in Russia, AsChina and the Pacifc region, be

ore becoming Vice-President othe World Bank in 2008.

IN ThE FIELD 3: visiting disaster areas in order to a ssess the situation frst hand is an important parto Georgievas job. In August 2010, she visited Pachwar, Pakistan, and talked to people aectedby the Pakistan oods. Photo: EU/AFP/Katsumi Kasahara

N ThE FIELD 1: Georgieva and President Salva Kiir Mayardit discussing theon-going humanitarian problems in South Sudan.

Photo: EU/AFP/Katsumi Kasahara

IN ThE FIELD 2: at the end o March 2011, Georgieva travelled to Japan to oversee the delivery o aid romthe EU and to discuss civil protection with the Japanese authorities. The EU aid shipment contained 70 tonso relie items, including blankets, mattresses and sleeping bags. Photo: EU/AFP/Katsumi Kasahara

profile Kristalina Georgieva

I always ocuson the job I have. Aslong as I am in this

job it has my ulldedication.

I am very conf-dent that Europe hasmade the right choice

to keep humanitar-ia

Perspective Nr. 2 - 2011

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