Perspectivas para América Latina y el Caribe: Frustradas ... · 2018 Global Financial Stability...

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 1

Perspectivas para América Latina y el Caribe: Frustradas por la incertidumbre

OCTUBRE 2019

Departamento del Hemisferio OccidentalFondo Monetario Internacional


LAC: Exports Growth(Percent)

LA7: Non-LAC Trading Partners Real GDP Growth(Year-over-year percent change;

weighted by exports)

Global Commodity Prices(Index: 2011 = 100)

Sources: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics database; and IMF staff calculations.

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Based on data for non-LAC partner countries that together account for 100 percent of trade of reporting country. LA7 = Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

–5

0

5

10

15

20

ene.

17

mar

. 17

may

. 17

jul.

17

sep.

17

nov.

17

ene.

18

mar

. 18

may

. 18

jul.

18

sep.

18

nov.

18

ene.

19

mar

. 19

may

. 19

LAC CHN JPN-KOR USA-CAN EU Other

Total

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

OilCopperIron oreSoybeans

Los factores externos continúan perjudicando las perspectivas de crecimiento de ALC...

2,6

2,8

3,0

3,2

3,4

3,6

3,8

2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24


Ten-year Government Bond Yields(Percent)

Sovereign and Corporate Spreads(Basis points)

EPFR: Equity and Bond Flows(US$ billions)

Sources: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.Note: LA6 = Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Sovereign spreads refer to the median of LA6 EMBIG spreads. Corporate spreads refer to the median of LA5 CEMBI spreads. Sovereign bond yields refer to the median of LA6. Shaded area is the min-max range of LA6 sovereign spreads.

Source: EPFR database; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Data until September 25, 2019.

–1,5

–1,0

–0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Jan.

3Ja

n. 3

1Fe

b. 2

8M

ar. 2

8A

pr. 2

5M

ay. 2

3Ju

n. 2

0Ju

l. 18

Aug

. 15

Sep

. 12

Oct

. 10

Nov

. 7D

ec. 5

Jan.

2Ja

n. 3

0Fe

b. 2

7M

ar. 2

7A

pr. 2

4M

ay. 2

2Ju

n. 1

9Ju

l. 17

Aug

. 14

Sep

. 11

2018 2019

ARG BRA CHL COLMEX PER URY VEN

… con unas condiciones financieras globales más favorables proveyendo un respiro

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Corporate spreads

Sovereign spreads

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

United States

LA6 median(US$ denominated)


Latin America and the Caribbean: Real GDP Growth(Year-over-year percent change)

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.Note: PPP GDP-weighted average. South America excludes Guyana and Suriname. Green/red denotes upward/downward revision compared with the April 2019 World Economic Outlook forecasts.

Selected LAC: Contributions to Real GDP Growth(Percent; excludes Venezuela)

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

4

2018 19(Projected)

20(Projected)

Private consumption Public consumption InvestmentInventories Exports Imports

Real GDP growth

Projections

2017 2018 2019 2020Avg.

2021–24

LAC 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.8 2.6

LAC excluding Venezuela 1.9 1.7 0.9 2.1 2.7

South America 0.6 0.4 –0.2 1.7 2.7

Argentina 2.7 –2.5 –3.1 –1.3 2.5

Brazil 1.1 1.1 0.9 2.0 2.3

Chile 1.3 4.0 2.5 3.0 3.2

Colombia 1.4 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.7

Peru 2.5 4.0 2.6 3.6 3.9

Mexico 2.1 2.0 0.4 1.3 2.2

CAPDR 4.0 3.9 3.3 3.9 4.1

CaribbeanTourism dependent 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.9

Commodity exporters –0.9 1.0 0.8 17.9 4.8

Crecimiento bajo en 2019, y una recuperación modesta en 2020 liderada por el consumo y la inversión privadas


2020 GDP Growth Forecasts under Different Scenarios for Business Confidence

(Percent)

Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.

2020 GDP Growth Forecasts under Different Scenarios for Consumer Confidence

(Percent)

Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.

0

1

2

3

4

5

Brazil Chile Mexico

Pessimistic WEO Optimistic

0

1

2

3

4

5

Brazil Chile Mexico

Pessimistic WEO Optimistic

Las proyecciones del WEO asumen una recuperación de la confianza, aunque con riesgos a la baja significativos


Brazil: Formal Employment(Year-over-year percent change)

LA4: Formal Employment(Year-over-year percent change)

Real Wage Growth(Year-over-year percent change)

Sources: Haver Analytics; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.

Sources: Haver Analytics; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.

Sources: Haver Analytics; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Simple average of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Peru data are based on minimum wage real index.

–5

–4

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

–2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

ChileColombiaMexicoPeru

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Los mercados laborales no se perfilan como un posible motor de la recuperación económica…


Latin America: Financial Conditions Index andReal Credit Growth

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics database; and IMF staff calculations.Note: For methodology and variables included in the FCI, refer to the online annex of the October 2018 Global Financial Stability Report. Real credit growth purchasing-power-parity GDP-weighted aggregate excludes Argentina.

Corporate Leverage(Debt to assets; percent)

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Includes nonfinancial corporations of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

2014 15 16 17 18 19

Median Mean

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

2007:Q108:Q3 10:Q1 11:Q3 13:Q1 14:Q3 16:Q1 17:Q3 19:Q1

FCI (0 = neutral; +/– = tight/loose)Real credit growth (right scale)

…ni tampoco las condiciones financieras internas cercanas a la neutralidad y el modesto crecimiento del crédito


❖ Corto plazo: encontrar un punto de equilibrio entre fomentar el crecimiento y restablecer los márgenes de maniobra.

➢ La consolidación fiscal sigue siendo una prioridad en muchos países de la región dados los altos niveles de deuda y los abultados déficits fiscales.

➢ La política monetaria puede seguir respaldando el crecimiento en la mayoría de los países, dada la estabilidad de las expectativas de inflación.

❖ Mediano plazo: Implementar reformas estructurales.

➢ Mejorar la calidad de la infraestructura y la educación.➢ Estimular la competencia.➢ Abrirse mas al comercio y la inversión extranjera directa.➢ Abordar las regulaciones en el mercado laboral para reducir la informalidad.

Políticas económicas


Fiscal Impulse(Percentage points of GDP; +/– = loosening/tightening)

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.

General Government Gross Debt, 2019(Percent of fiscal year GDP)

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and national authorities.Note: Green bars refer to dollarized economies (Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama). Breakdown by denomination for St. Kitts and Nevis is not available; bar denotes total public debt.

–4

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

ARG BRA CHL COL ECU MEX PER URY LAC

2018 2019 2020

Emerging market and developing economies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

BR

BJA

MA

RG

BLZ

BR

AA

TGA

BW DM

AS

UR

VC

TS

LVLC

AU

RY

BH

SG

RD

BO

LK

NA

CR

IG

UY

ME

XD

OM

CO

LTT

OE

CU

HN

DP

AN NIC HTI

CH

LP

ERG

TM PR

Y

Domestic currencyForeign currency

La consolidación fiscal sigue siendo una prioridad, lo que limita el espacio fiscal para respaldar el crecimiento


Real neutral rate

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

MEX BRA COL CRI PRY URY PER CHL

Latest

Inflation(Percent; end of period)

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.

Real Policy Rates and Neutral Rates(Percent)

Sources: Consensus Economics; Haver Analytics; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Real (ex ante) policy rates is the difference between the policy rate and the 1-year-ahead inflation expectations. Uruguay does not have a policy rate. Interest rate shown is based on the 1-month nominal yield (letras).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

URY MEX BRA PRY COL GTM PER CHL CRI DOM

Target range 2018 2019 2020

La política monetaria puede seguir apoyando el crecimiento dadas las estables perspectivas de inflación


Structural Performance Indicators(Percentile ranks, unless noted otherwise)

Sources: OECD, 2015 PISA; WB, 2019 Doing Business (DB) database; WB, WDI database; WEF, 2018 Global Competitiveness Report; and IMF staff calculations.Note: For WDI, educational attainment is the percentage of population ages 25+ that attained or completed upper secondary education. For PISA, WEF, and DB, the scale reflects the percentile distribution in all countries for each respective survey. Latin America includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay.

Corruption Perception Index Distributions by Region, 2018

Source: Transparency International.0

20

40

60

80

100

Learning outcomes

(PISA)Infrastructure

(WEF)

Ease of doing business

(DB)

Advanced economies

Educational attainment

(WDI)

Latin America

Advancedeconomies

Latin America and the

CaribbeanEmerging market and developing

economies

Para revivir la productividad se requiere mejorar el clima de negocios, la educación, y la infraestructura


❖ La crisis económica y humanitaria en Venezuela continúa. En octubre de 2019, las Naciones Unidas estimaron que alrededor de 4.5 millones de Venezolanos habían dejado el país, con 3.7 millones estableciéndose en otros países de ALC.

❖ Basado en las tendencias actuales, estimamos que el numero total de migrantes de Venezuela podría llegar a los 6 millones a fin de 2019 y 10 millones en 2023 (8.9 millones in ALC, y 500 mil Colombianos retornando desde Venezuela).

❖ Se espera que los flujos migratorios de Venezuela tengan efectos mixtos en los países receptores:

➢ En el corto plazo pondrían presión sobre el gasto fiscal y el mercado laboral.

➢ En el mediano plazo, aumentarían el crecimiento potencial dada la expansión de la fuerza laboral, el capital humano, y la inversión.

La Crisis Migratoria Venezolana


Sources: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Only countries with at least 2 million refugees are shown. t defined as the first year when refugees exceed 500k.

… Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Ecuador have received most of these migrants, accounting for 72 percent of the total

Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).1Unofficial estimates used by authorities are greater than UNHCR.

Afghanistan (1977)

Ethiopia (1980)

Iraq (1988)

South Sudan (2014)

Syria (2012)

Venezuela (2015)

Iraq (2004)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 t+9 t+10

Refugees and Asylum-Seekers(Millions of people)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

TUR

LBN

¹JO

R¹

DE

UIR

QE

GY

SD

NU

GA

ETH

CO

LP

ER CH

LE

CU

AR

GB

RA

PAN TT

OG

UY

CU

WA

BW

Syrian Crisis

South Sudan (and Congo)

Venezuela(actual and projected)

Recent Crises: Main Recipients(Thousands of people)

The total number of Venezuelan migrants is expected to reach 5 million in 2019 and 10 million in 2023…

La crisis económica y humanitaria en Venezuela ha llevado a grandes flujos migratorios a otros países en la región


Source: IMF staff calculations. Source: IMF staff calculations.

0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35

PRYCANUSAMEXHNDGTMBRABOLARGURYDOM

CRIECUCHLPERPANCOLTTO

Impact of Venezuela’s Migration on Potential GDP Growth

(Percent; average 2017–30)

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0

CANPRYUSAMEXBRAGTMHNDBOLURYARGDOM

CRICHLPANTTOPERECUCOLABWGUY

Impact of Venezuela’s Migrationon Government Expenditure

(Percent of GDP; 2023)

The demographic and skills composition of migrants should lead to positive impact on potential growth…

… but the provision of public services will be strained, increasing government expenditure

Se espera que estos flujos migratorios incrementen el crecimiento y el gasto fiscal en los países receptores, …


The associated increase in consumption and investment is expected to widen the current account deficit…

Source: IMF staff calculations.

… while higher government expenditure, partly offset by higher revenue, would widen the fiscal deficits


0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

Colombia

Ecuador

Panama

Chile

Peru

Costa RicaCurrent Account Deficit

(Percent of GDP; average 2017–30)

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4

Colombia

Ecuador

Panama

Chile

Peru

Costa RicaHeadline Budget Deficit

(Percent of GDP; average 2017–30)

… y que lleven a un aumento de los déficits fiscales y de cuenta corriente


Impacto de las tensiones comerciales entre China y los Estados Unidos


Growth Response to a China Growth Shock and Higher Spreads


Growth Response to a US Growth Shock and Higher Spreads


–0.07

–0.31

–0.30

–1.20

–0.38

–0.45

–0.27

–0.45

–0.42

–0.51

–0.25

–0.26

–1,4 –1,2 –1,0 –0,8 –0,6 –0,4 –0,2 0,0 0,2

USA

JPN

EA

CHN

URY

PER

MEX

CRI

COL

CHL

BRA

ARG China growth shockIncrease in sovereign spreads

–1.04

–0.25

–0.39

–0.25

–0.30

–0.42

–0.74

–0.74

–0.55

–0.39

–0.26

–0.25

–1,4 –1,2 –1,0 –0,8 –0,6 –0,4 –0,2 0,0 0,2

USA

JPN

EA

CHN

URY

PER

MEX

CRI

COL

CHL

BRA

ARG US growth shockIncrease in sovereign spreads

Los efectos en ALC de las tensiones comerciales pueden ser fuertes: Menor crecimiento en China y EE.UU. y mayores diferenciales


❖ Flujos de capitales hacia América Latina después del superciclo de materias primas

❖ Diferenciales soberanos y consolidaciones fiscales

❖ Dinámica del mercado laboral e informalidad durante el ciclo económico en ALC

Resumen de los Capítulos Analíticos


Capitulo 2: Los flujos de inversión de cartera toman un papel protagonista

Net capital flows to LAC declined since 2014, mostly because of a fall in gross inflows.

This decline in turn was mainly driven by changes in portfolio inflows.

The resilience of FDI in LAC contrasts with steep decline in AEs and other EMs.

Sources: IMF, Financial Flows Analytics database; and IMF staff calculations.

Sources: IMF, Financial Flows Analytics database; and IMF staff calculations.Note: LA7 = Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

Sources: IMF, Balance of Payments Statistics database; and IMF staff calculations.Note: FDI = foreign direct investments.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2006 08 10 12 14 16 18

Net inflows

Gross inflows

(Percent of GDP)

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2013 14 15 16 17 18

Portfolio investments

Foreign direct investments

Other investments

Types of Inflows to LA7(Percent of GDP)

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Advanced economies

Latin America and the Caribbean

Emerging markets

FDI Across Regions and Income Groups(Percent of GDP)


La sensibilidad de los flujos de capital a las principales variables explicativas ha cambiado

Portfolio flows to the region have become more sensitive to global factors…

Source: IMF staff calculations.Note: LA7 = Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

… and also to growth differentials. This implies increased vulnerabilities, given current global environment.

Source: IMF staff calculations.Note: LA7 = Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

–0,25

–0,20

–0,15

–0,10

–0,05

0,00

2000–18 2012–18

LA7 Emerging market anddeveloping economies

Portfolio Flows: Sensitivity to Global Risk Aversion 0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

2000–18 2012–18

LA7 Emerging market anddeveloping economies

Portfolio Flows: Sensitivity to Growth Differentials relative to AEs


LAC countries are more prone to tighten fiscal policy and capital controls after sudden stops


Costs of sudden stops are lower for countries with flexible exchange rates


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Fiscal Monetary Capital controls

Latin America and the CaribbeanOther countries

Policy Tightening during Sudden Stops(Percent of cases)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

All LAC

Floating Fixed

Average Costs of Sudden Stops(Percent of trend GDP)

En caso de “sudden stops” en flujos de capital, la flexibilidad cambiaria juega un rol importante


Capítulo 3: Diferenciales soberanos y consolidaciones fiscales

• Muchos países en ALC tienen que consolidar sus cuentas fiscales luego del fin del boom de precios de materias primas.

• Los episodios se identifican con data de alta frecuencia de anuncios fiscales de las autoridades en una base de datos de noticias

• Se explora el impacto en los diferenciales soberanos usando el Método de Proyecciones Locales de Jordà (2005)

• La especificación central para los diferenciales a diferentes horizontes (h=0,..,30) in días es:

𝑟𝑖,𝑡+ℎ − 𝑟𝑖,𝑡−1 = 𝛼𝑖,ℎ + 𝛾𝑡,ℎ + 𝛽ℎ𝐷𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛿𝑋𝑖,𝑡 + 휀𝑖,𝑡+ℎ (1)

• También se consideran especificaciones dependientes del estado (niveles de los diferenciales soberanos, programa del FMI):

𝑟𝑖,𝑡+ℎ − 𝑟𝑖,𝑡−1 = 𝑆𝑖,𝑡−1𝑗

𝛼𝑖,ℎ𝑗+ 𝛾𝑡,ℎ

𝑗+ 𝛽ℎ

𝑗𝐷𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛿𝑗𝑋𝑖,𝑡 +

1 − 𝑆𝑖,𝑡−1𝑗

𝛼𝑖,ℎ𝑗+ 𝛾𝑡,ℎ

𝑗+ 𝛽ℎ

𝑗𝐷𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛿𝑗𝑋𝑖,𝑡 + 휀𝑖,𝑡+ℎ. (2)


Consolidation announcements reduce sovereign spreads, especially in times of fiscal stress

IMF supported-programs are also linked to higher reductions in spreads

Consolidations that reduce spreads lead to smaller drag on economic activity in periods of

high fiscal stress

Source: IMF staff calculations.Note: Estimates based on local projection methods. Shaded area indicates 90 percent confidence intervals using HAC standard errors.

–40

–35

–30

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28Days

Unrestricted sampleFiscal stress

Conditional on the Level of Spreads(Basis points)

–35

–30

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28Days

Unrestricted sampleIMF support

Conditional on IMF Program Support(Basis points)

–7

–6

–5

–4

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Months

UnconstrainedNo reduction in spreads

Economic Activity(Percent)

Source: IMF staff calculations.Note: Estimates based on a PVAR. Shaded area indicates 90 percent bootstrap confidence intervals. The red line is the counterfactual scenario in which spreads do not respond.

Los paquetes de ajuste fiscal que reducen los diferenciales soberanos mitigan la caída del producto


El diablo se esconde en los detalles: El tamaño y la composición del ajuste son importantes

Source: IMF staff calculations.Note: Estimates based on local projection methods. Shaded area indicates 90 percent confidence intervals using HAC standard errors. The LAC sample is split at the median of the empirical distribution for the size of the adjustment package.

–30

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28

Unrestricted sampleLarge adjustments

Large Adjustments(Basis points)

Splitting the sample in half using “large” and “small” adjustment bins shows that “large” dominates…

… and that expenditure-based consolidations lead to higher and more persistent reductions in spreads

–40

–35

–30

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

5

10

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28

Unrestricted sampleExpenditure based

Expenditure-based Consolidations(Basis points)


Capítulo 4: Dinámica del mercado laboral e informalidad

• La recuperaciones lentas ponen en riesgo las mejoras en el ingreso real, el empleo, y la formalización.

• Este capítulo estudia la dinámica del mercado laboral durante el ciclo económico; y el rol que juegan las fricciones institucionales, la regulaciones, y los impuestos.

• Se usa el Estimador Común Correlacionado (ECC) propuesto por Pesaran (2006):

∆𝑍𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + 𝛽i∆𝑦𝑖𝑡 + θ𝑖∆𝑦𝑖𝑡−1 + γ𝑖∆𝑦𝑖𝑡−2 + 𝜗𝑖,𝑡 , (1)

𝜗𝑖,𝑡 = μ𝑖 +

𝑚=1

𝑝

𝜆𝑖𝑚𝑓𝑚𝑡 + 휀𝑖,𝑡 ,

• Donde ∆𝑍𝑖𝑡 es el cambio en la variable del mercado laboral de interés (tasa de participación, desempleo, informalidad) y ∆𝑦𝑖𝑡 es el crecimiento del PIB.

• El estimador ECC permite capturar la heterogeneidad de las elasticidades a través de países y tomar en cuenta factores comunes.


Tendencias del mercado laboral en ALC: reducciones en informalidad y desempleo

The negative terms-of-trade shock and the protracted growth slowdown that ensued led to an increase in unemployment in LAC

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; World Bank, World Development Indicators database; and IMF staff calculations.

Informality fell in the 2000s, but in some countries the declined has stalled in recent years

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators database; and IMF staff calculations.

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997 2000 03 06 09 12 15 18

Latin America & CaribbeanOECDUnited States

Unemployment Rate(Percent)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000

Labo

r inf

orm

ality

rate

Real GDP per capita (2011 PPP US$)

ArgentinaBrazil

Chile

Peru

MexicoColombia


El desempleo cambia poco; los factores de oferta y demanda fluctúan fuertemente en direcciones opuestas

Chile: Slower formal job creation in recent years has been compensated by lower labor force participation and a slowdown

in formalization

Source: David, Lambert y Toscani (2019).

Colombia: Formal job creation has been met with a strong increase in the formality rate, thus keeping unemployment

relatively stable

Source: David, Lambert y Toscani (2019).

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1997–2000 2000–07 2007–11 2011–17

Working age populationLabor force participation rateFormality rateFormal employment

Decomposing Changes in Unemployment (Percent)

Unemployment

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1997–2000 2000–07 2007–11 2011–17

Working age populationLabor force participation rateFormality rateFormal employment

Decomposing Changes in Unemployment (Percent)

Unemployment


Unemployment in LAC is less responsive to fluctuations in GDP…

… which in part reflects high levels of informality.

Informality acts as a “buffer”, it increases in downturns and decreases in upswings

Sources: Haver Analytics; International Labour Organization; and IMF staff calculations.Note: AE = advanced economies; CA+MEX = Central America and Mexico; EM = emerging markets; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; SA = South America.

USAGBR

AUT

BELDNK

FRA

DEU

ITANLD

NOR

SWE

CHEJPN

FINGRC

IRL

PRT

ESP

TURARG

BOL

BRA

CHL

COL

CRI

DOM

ECU

SLV

GTM

HND

MEX

NIC

PANPRY

PER

SYR

EGY

YEM

BGD

MMR

KHM

LKAINDIDN

KOR

LAONPL

PAK

VNM

AGOCMR

TCD

COG

COD

BENGHA

CIVMDGMWI

MLI

MAR

NERNGA

RWA

SEN

SLE

TZA

TGO

TUN

UGA

BFA

ZMB

ARMALB

KGZ

BGR

MDA

RUS

TJKCHN

CZE

SVK

ESTLVA

SRB

HUN

LTU

HRV

SVN

BIH

POL

ROU

–1,0

–0,8

–0,6

–0,4

–0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Oku

n's

coef

ficie

nt

Informal employment (percent)

La informalidad afecta la dinámica del mercado laboral sobre el ciclo económico

–0,4

–0,3

–0,2

–0,1

0,0

AE EM LAC SA CA MEX

No lags One lag

Unemployment’s Responsiveness to GDP Changes (Okun’s coefficient; average)

–0,6

–0,5

–0,4

–0,3

–0,2

–0,1

0,0

LAC SA CA MEX

No lags One lag

Informality’s Responsiveness to GDP Changes (coefficient; average)


Una informalidad alta reduce la velocidad de ajuste a los “shocks” económicos, y el crecimiento

Higher informality levels are associated with a lower speed of adjustment coefficient

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators database; and IMF staff calculations.

-1,2

-1

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Spe

ed o

f Adj

ustm

ent C

oeffi

cien

t

Informality Rate

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2019/10/22/wreo1019

Gracias

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2019/10/22/wreo1019


Additional Slides


Determinantes de los flujos de inversión de cartera

2000–18

LAC LA7 All EMs

Lagged flow not significant 0.19*** (-0.10**)

Growth differential 0.11* 0.25** 0.23**

US_10y (-0.35**) (-0.29**) 0.16*

VIX (-0.07)*** (-0.08)*** (-0.12)***

Observations 1030 514 2560

2012–18

LAC LA7 All EMs

Lagged flow (-0.13)** 0.14*** not significant

Growth differential 0.38*** 0.74*** 0.29***

US_10y not significant (-0.81)* not significant

VIX (-0.12)*** (-0.17)*** (-0.10)***

Observations 433 188 1050


Como responder a los sudden stops? Acortando el dolor

Duration Models of Sudden Stops and Growth Decelerations

Source: IMF staff calculations. Note: Exponentiated coefficients. t-statistics in parentheses. Standard errors clustered by country. Weibull and Gompertz refer to the distributions assumed for the baseline hazard (see Annex 3).*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Weibull Gompertz Weibull Gompertz

GDP per capita (initial) 0.76** 0.76** 0.74** 0.75**

(-2.43) (-2.18) (-2.30) (-2.21)

Exchange rate regime (initial) 1.62*** 1.96*** 1.84*** 1.81***

(2.86) (3.76) (2.80) (2.86)

∆ Terms of trade 1.13*** 1.12*** 1.10*** 1.09***

(2.95) (2.84) (2.64) (2.88)

∆ Monetary 1.03 1.06* 1.05*** 1.05***

(1.16) (1.93) (3.06) (3.23)

∆ Fiscal 1.02 1.02 0.99 0.99

(0.71) (0.82) (-0.18) (-0.31)

∆ Reserves 1.01** 1.01*** 1.01 1.01

(2.12) (2.65) (1.50) (1.59)

∆ Capital controls 0.96 1.00 0.97 1.03

(-0.17) (-0.014) (-0.066) (0.073)

Constant 0.16 0.41 0.34 0.79

(-1.57) (-0.74) (-0.85) (-0.19)

θ 2.90*** 1.57***

(12.69) (8.07)

1.83*** 1.06***

γ (10.39) (5.70)

Observations 145 145 97 97

Sudden Stops Growth Decelerations

Coefficient means that featuring a flexible exchange rate regime increases the odds of exiting the sudden stop in 81%.


Enfoques de estimación alternativos (II)

• To study labor market adjustments to economic shocks we follow two approaches. The first uses aggregate data to estimate an error correction model that adapts equation (1):

∆𝑒𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + 𝛽i∆𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 𝜆𝑖(𝑒𝑖𝑡 − θ𝑖𝑦𝑖𝑡−1) + 𝜗𝑖,𝑡 , (2)

𝜗𝑖,𝑡 = μ𝑖 +

𝑚=1

𝑝

𝜆𝑖𝑚𝑓𝑚𝑡 + 휀𝑖,𝑡 ,

• The second approach uses sector-level data and follows the empirical strategy of Caballero, Cowan, Engel and Micco (2013). The estimating equation in this case is:

∆𝑒𝑖𝑗𝑡 = α + 𝜆𝑖(𝑒𝑖𝑗𝑡−1∗ − 𝑒𝑖𝑗𝑡−1) + 휀𝑖,𝑡

• Where the speed of adjustment parameter 𝜆𝑖 is assumed to be a function of country characteristics such as labor market regulations.


La informalidad es un síntoma de factores estructurales, incluyendo las regulaciones al mercado laboral…

Informality is positively correlated with higher minimum wages…

Sources: International Labour Organization; World Bank, Doing Business Indicators, and IMF staff calculations

… and with higher redundancy costs

Sources: International Labour Organization; World Bank, Doing Business Indicators, and IMF staff calculations.

AGO

ALB

ARG

ARM

AUTBEL

BEN BFA

BGD

BGRBIH

BRA

BRN

BWA

CHE

CHL

CHN

CIV

CMRCOD

COG

COL

COM

CPV

CRI

CYPCZEDEUDNK

DOMECUEGY

ESP

EST FINFRA

GBR

GHA

GMB

GRC

GTMHND

HRVHUN

IDNIND

IRL

IRQ

ISL

ITA

JOR

JPN

KGZ

KHM

KOR

LAO LBR

LKA

LTU

LUX

LVA

MAR

MDA

MDG

MEX

MLI

MLT

MMR

MNG

MWINAM

NERNGA

NIC

NLD NOR

NPL

PAK

PAN

PER

POL

PRT

PRY

ROU

RUS

RWA

SEN

SLE

SLV

SRBSVK

SVNSWE

SYR

TCD

TGO

TJK

TLS TUN

TUR

TZA

UGA

USA

VNM

WSM

YEM

ZAF

ZMB

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6

Info

rmal

em

ploy

men

t (pe

rcen

t)

Minimum wage ratio

AGO

ALB

ARG

ARM

AUTBEL

BENBFA

BGD

BGRBIH

BRA

BRN

BWA

CHE

CHL

CHN

CIV

CMRCOD

COG

COL

COM

CPV

CRI

CYPCZEDEUDNK

DOM ECUEGY

ESP

ESTFINFRA

GBR

GHA

GMB

GRC

GTMHND

HRVHUN

IDNIND

IRL

IRQ

ISL

ITA

JOR

JPN

KGZ

KHM

KOR

LAOLBR

LKA

LTU

LUX

LVA

MAR

MDA

MDG

MEX

MLI

MLT

MMR

MNG

MWINAM

NERNGA

NIC

NLDNOR

NPL

PAK

PAN

PER

POL

PRT

PRY

ROU

RUS

RWA

SEN

SLE

SLV

SRBSVK

SVNSWE

SYR

TCD

TGO

TJK

TLS TUN

TUR

TZA

UGA

USA

VNM

WSM

YEM

ZAF

ZMB

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 15 30 45 60

Info

rmal

em

ploy

men

t (pe

rcen

t)

Redundancy costs (weeks of salary)


… y los países de ALC tienden a tener regulaciones mas estrictas que las economías avanzadas

LAC countries have, on average, higher minimum wages and severance pay than AEs

Sources: International Labour Organization; World Bank, Doing Business Indicators database; and IMF staff calculations.Note: LA7 = Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

100

75

50

25

0

25

50

75

100

0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4

LA7Advanced economies

Unemployment protection scheme (2015; share of countries)

Severance pay (2010; scale 0–1)

Collective bargaining coverage (2016 or latest; percent)

Ratio of minimum wage to value added (2018)

(Average per country group)


Estimated Implied Implied growth

Speed of half life differential

Adjustment (in months) (low-high)

Average 0.50 12.00 -

LAC 0.48 12.91 -

Low 0.51 11.79

High 0.47 13.26 0.17pp

Low, High government effectiveness 0.54 10.56

High, High government effectiveness 0.43 14.61 0.47pp

Low, Low government effectiveness 0.52 11.39

High, Low government effectiveness 0.49 12.32 0.11pp

Low, High government effectiveness 0.55 10.56

High, High government effectiveness 0.39 16.85 0.74pp

Low, Low government effectiveness 0.51 11.72

High, Low government effectiveness 0.49 12.48 0.09pp

Informality

Job security

Minimum wage/Labor productivity


De hecho, regulaciones de facto estrictas son asociadas con menos flexibilidad microeconómica y menor crecimiento

Labor Market Characteristics, Speed of Adjustment, and Growth

Perspectivas para América Latina y el Caribe: Frustradas ... · 2018 Global Financial Stability...

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