Personalised Nutrition - Vitafoods Asia...APAC OTC is sold mostly through retail channels with...
Transcript of Personalised Nutrition - Vitafoods Asia...APAC OTC is sold mostly through retail channels with...
Personalised Nutrition
Sponsored by:
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The future of self-care in a world of precision
Speaker:
Jude C. Uzonwanne, Principal, Strategy & Transaction Advisory, Asia Pacific, IQVIA
(Singapore)
Copyright © 2018 IQVIA. All rights reserved.
September 11, 2018
Jude C. Uzonwanne
Conference Presentation Document
IQVIA Asia Pacific
The Future of Self-Care
in World of Precision
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IQVIA is one of the world’s largest and most focused Consumer Health advisers…
30+Years of consumer
healthcare experience
2,500Data scientists and
statisticians
6,000Service experts available
in 100+ countries
4,500+Technology professionals
20+Petabytes of unique, global
information
400,000Sources of social media
90%Global OTC sales captured
1,000,000Data sources (wholesalers,
pharmacies, etc.)
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What IQVIA offers with Consulting Services
We offer clients a suite of tools and capabilities to support their ability to shape the consumer health ecosystem future…
Str
ate
gic
Gro
wth
INNOVATION AND GROWTH STRATEGYR&D productivity, concept development, pipeline analysis, Rx-to-OTC
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING
Target market definition,
consumer segmentation
Op
tim
ize
d O
pera
tio
ns
DETAILED MARKET UNDERSTANDINGCompetitive and trend analysis, primary market research
FIELD FORCE STRUCTURE AND SIZING
Sales team design, coverage model,
goal alignment
GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSIONMarket identification, priority setting, emerging markets
OPTIMUM MARKETING MIX
Budget allocation, econometric model,
ROI by channel
CHANNEL OPTIMIZATIONStrategy development, GTM alignment, channel mix
PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT
AND REPORTING
KPI mapping to objectives,
data needs, scorecard design
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IQVIA Consulting Services APAC footprint
In APAC, our consumer health business is built around a network of consultants with in-field and in-depth country experience
• Extensive therapeutic area and market knowledge in
pharma / biotech, consumer health, medtech
• Functional expertise in areas of:
• Pricing & market access
• Commercial strategy & model
• Portfolio & product strategy
• Regulatory pathways
• Center of Excellence methodology to complement issue
based consulting skills
In APAC, IQVIA Consulting Services operates six consulting hubs
with over 200 consultants
Korea
17 Consultants
Japan
30+ Consultants
China
100+ Consultants
Southeast Asia
54 Consultants
Australia
22 Consultants
India
37 Consultants
1,600 offshore
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OTC market size, share & growth by region
The APAC OTC self-care market is ~USD $18 Bn (~11% of regional pharma) with ~8% CAGR, in line with regional pharma growth
Source: IQVIA MIDAS, IQVIA analysis
APAC OTC vs Rx & overall pharma (US$ Mn, MAT Q1 2013-18)
89%
11%89%2013
89%
2017
11%2014
11%2015
106,569
12%
157,531
88%2016
11%89%
11%89%2018
117,303
128,645
139,531
151,305
Top OTC markets & 5-Yr CAGR (USD$ Mn, MAT Q1 2013-18)
21%
23% EU5
24%
2013 2017
17%
16%
23%
23%
21%17%
2014
21%22%
18%
22%
16%
20%
22%
2016
66,569
17%
20182015
76,601
23%
82,277
20%
28%
18%
17%
16%
23%
22%
21%
18%
LATAM
18%
US
APAC
19%
Others
15%
61,592
72,143
57,922
+6%
7.5%
0.8%
0.9%
13.2%
8.0%
5-Yr CAGR APAC OTC
APAC RX
5-Yr CAGR
8.2%
8.0%
APAC Pharma 8.1%
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OTC market size, share & growth in APAC
APAC’s top OTC market is AU, followed by CN & IN, while top OTC TAs are alimentary & metabolic, dermatology & respiratory
Source: IQVIA MIDAS, IQVIA analysis
APAC OTC market by ATC (US$ Mn, MAT Q1 2013-18)
36%
17,268
12%10%
2018
2017
2015
30% 11%
30%
11%
6%5%
6%
2013
12%
5%
6%5%
37%2014
11%
29% 11% 11%6%
5%37%
30% 11%
6%
30%
6%5% 37%
38%
10% 5% 38%
11%30%
2016
12,121
13,059
14,587
16,268
17,77411%
A (ALIMENTARY TRACT,METABOL)
R (RESPIRATORY SYSTEM)
D (DERMATOLOGICALS)
N (NERVOUS SYSTEM)
M (MUSCULO-SKELETAL SYSTEM)
OTHERS
APAC OTC market (2018)
Sales: USD $18 Bn
CAGR: 8%
Korea
Sales: USD $1.9 Bn
Share: 10.5%
CAGR: 3.3%
China
Sales: USD $3.8 Bn
Share: 21.5%
CAGR: 7.4%
Top APAC OTC market size, share & 5-Yr CAGR (MAT Q1 13-18)
India
Sales: USD $3.7 Bn
Share: 20.5%
CAGR: 12.3%
Vietnam
Sales: USD $1.2 Bn
Share: 6.5%
CAGR: 14.2%
Australia
Sales: USD $3.9 Bn
Share: 21.6%
CAGR: 8.7%
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Put differently, the top APAC categories are Pain Relief, Digestive and Skin categories
Source: IQVIA MIDAS, IQVIA Confidential - Q1 2018 SMR, IQVIA analysis
Source: IQVIA OTC Global Analysis
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OTC market by channel in APAC
APAC OTC is sold mostly through retail channels with average 7.3% CAGR, with top 5 markets being IN, AU, KR, PH & VN
Source: IQVIA MIDAS, IQVIA analysis
APAC OTC retail market by country (US$ Mn, MAT Q1 2013-18)
18%24%2013
25%
29%
15%
27%
5%
2016
18%
28%
9%
5%
18%27%
12,658
30%
17%9%
15%
5%2014
8%14%
6%
26% 16%
11,641
9,007
8% 6% 17%2015
27% 14%
5%
2017
8% 15%
28% 31%
8,522
14% 9%2018
10,207
12,342
28%
VIETNAM
OTHERSPHILIPPINES
KOREA
AUSTRALIA
INDIA
APAC OTC market by channel (USD$ Mn, MAT Q1 2013-18)
70%
31%30%
29%
2013 2018
28%
69%
2014 2017
70%
30%
16,268
71%
2015
72%
2016
71%
12,121
29% HOSPITAL
RETAIL
14,587
13,059
17,26817,774+8%
8.2%
7.3%
5-Yr CAGR
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OTC spend per capita & average prices in APAC
OTC spend per capita is highest in developed APAC markets, (driven by high prices)
Source: Secondary research, IQVIA MIDAS, IQVIA analysis
Average OTC prices in APAC by region (US$, MAT Q3 2015-17 )APAC OTC spend per capita by market (USD$, MAT Q3 16-17)
130
83
47
43
40
31
13
13
12
12
10
7
4
4
3
3
KR
HK
NZ
AU
TH
JP
BG
SG
CN
MY
APAC
VN
PH
PK
IN
ID
-3%
-1%
Y-o-Y growth
-1%
+10%
0%
-7%
-3%
+26%
-2%
-3%
+3%
+2%
+5%
+3%
+11%
+7%
Deve
lop
ed
ma
rke
tsL
es
s-d
eve
lop
ed
Overall decreasing growth due to lower
inflation & economic growth and
consumers buying less / cheaper products
AU expenditure
exaggerated by high
level of exports to CN
OTC spend per capita low but high growth due
to rise of middle class & disposable incomes,
health awareness, advertising & promotion
and growing retail access (pharmacy chains &
digital pharma retail)
8.23
8.76 8.62
2.162.33 2.44
1.90 1.93 2.00
0.52 0.56 0.60
1.10 1.15 1.19
2015 20172016
Australasia North SEA South APAC
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3%2% 4% 5% 10%
-5%
6% 11% 12% 13% 29%
0%
5%
-30%
-35%
-10%
10%
1%
15%
0%
-40%
ABBOTT
5-Year CAGR (2013-2018)
DANONE GROUPE
Y-o
-Y g
row
th (
20
17
-201
8)
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SANOFI
JOHNSON & JOHNSON
BAYER
PFIZER RECKITT BENCKISER
NESTLE
UNILAB
Competitive landscape in APAC
GSK is the top OTC player in APAC with on-par growth, competing against other MNCs e.g. Sanofi and Abbott
Source: IQVIA MIDAS, IQVIA analysis
Historical vs recent growth of key OTC players in APAC
(5-Year CAGR vs Y-o-Y growth, % )
US$ 500.0Mn
Above average growth
On par with average growth
Below average growth
12Source: Secondary research, IQVIA MIDAS, IQVIA analysis
Aging population, growth of digital, self-medication & health-consciousness are among the key drivers of self-care in APAC
Key trends & drivers Potential implications
Aging population• Currently, East & NE Asian markets account for 32% of world elderly
• By 2030, 60% of total population above 65 would be in APAC
• Enhance focus on elderly-related OTC product portfolio
• Develop innovative methods e.g. digital pharma retail to increase
OTC awareness & accessibility of aging population
Growth in middle class & overall disposable income• $12 spend per capita on OTC across APAC, led by AU ($139), JP ($83),
KR ($47), with highest growths in BG (26%), PH (11%), PK (10%)
• Improve product quality & branding through targeting attractive
consumer trends, allocating resources to high-potential segments,
and developing star / “hero” products
Rise of technology - mobile & digital and genetic• ~50% digital penetration, with ~2 billion internet users across APAC
• Growth of digital pharma retail on Alibaba / Taobao, Amazon, etc.
• Rise in use of genetic data to shape decision making
• Leverage on digital MCM – mobile app, social media, 3rd party sites
• Leverage on digital pharma retail to increase reach and enable
business-to-doorstep delivery
• Strike appropriate partnership choices to drive action e.g. GSK
Increased accessibility to OTC• Overall relaxation in digital, pharma & retail regulation across APAC
• Growth in pharmacy chains, cross-border & online-to-offline channel
• Optimize channel coverage with fast-growing e-commerce channels
• Partner local pharma with strong coverage & regulatory understanding
• Maintain focus on brick-and-mortar (50-70% OTC sales across APAC)
including non-pharmacy outlets (i.e. supermarkets ~25% OTC sales)
Increased self-care & medication• 85% of patients confident in their ability to take responsibility for their
health and access relevant online resources to do so
• Leverage on prescription-to-OTC switch & complementary medicines
• In-store promotions & engagement with pharmacists as they remain a
trusted source of info for OTC consumers
Increased health consciousness & awareness• CN is the world’s most health-conscious market, ahead of US, West
EU, JP & BRICS with >30% buying OTC in advance to stockpile at home
• Use of substantiated claims / RWE for increasingly savvy consumers
• Use of MCM across digital & traditional channels as increasingly
informed consumers leverage information from multiple sources
Increased preference for natural, non-chemical products• 73% in CN willing to trade up & pay premium for healthier products
• Move towards natural, organic ingredients where possible
• Focus marketing on product safety & certification
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Genetic testing market segmentation…for self-care players, likely focus is on the first segment
Take the example of genetics; at its core is a growing testing market that provides the data to inform decision making….
Note: 1. There might be overlaps of company business among different segmentations
Source: various companies, 23andme.com, Roche Diagnostics, Myriad Genetics, IQVIA Analysis
Direct-to-consumer tests Prevention and treatment tests Research and other tests
Target
customer
Examples
Key players1
• General population who has interests in
individual genetic information
• Pharma companies
• Government institutions
• Universities and research centers
• Population who wants early detection for
risk assessment and prevention of future
disease to improve health outcomes
• Patients who need companion diagnostics
(CDx) to a therapeutic drug to determine its
applicability, usually oncology patients
• Breast cancer: BRCA, HER 2
• Type I Diabetes: FOXP3 gene
• Lung cancer: EGFR, ALK, PDL1, ROS-1
• Human genome testing
• Disease research
• Drug development
• DNA variants with ancestry, weights, food
preference, etc.
• BGI
• Foundation Medicine
• Illumina
• Prevention Genetics
• BGI
• Roche
• Illumina
• National Institute of Health
• 23andMe
• Prenetics
• ancestry
• deCODEme
• Navigenics
Individual testing Research testing
*Note: Search volume for both ‘Anti Aging Skincare’ and ‘personalized Skincare’ indexed at 100% at
respective search volume in June 2015 to effectively show change in search volume over time. Total
search volume for ‘Anti Aging Skincare’ significantly larger than for ‘personalized Skincare’.
Genetics for example is now giving consumers the means to focus
on differentiated brands rather than broad based brands…
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610233/2017-was-the-year-consumer-dna-testing-blew-up/https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/02/21/here-are-the-top-10-breakthrough-technologies-for-2018/2
5Source: Prenetics, IQVIA Analysis
MIT
Technology
Review
Forbes
1. Acne (18 SNPs)
Skin sensitivity to hormones & inflammatory response
to bacteria determine how prone a person is to acne.
6. Photoaging (12 SNPs)
Genetics & sun can act together to aggravate
photoaging in the following ways:
2. Dryness (4 SNPs)
How well our cell walls regulate the cellular water level
affects the hydration level of our skin.
a) Pigmentation (9 SNPs)
Skin pigmentation is caused by increased melanin
production & has high heritability.
3. Sensitive Skin (6 SNPs)
Over-reactive inflammatory mechanisms can cause
skin irritations, redness & heightened sensitivity to the
environment.
b) Tanning (15 SNPs)
Tanning is activated by UV light & protects the skin cells
from being damaged.
4. Glycation (5 SNPs)
The damaging effects of glycation include wrinkles,
dryness, poor skin elasticity, as well as acne &
rosacea.
c) Sunburns (4 SNPs)
Higher sun-sensitivity causes some people to be more
susceptible to sunburn than the others.
5. Antioxidant Deficiency (4 SNPs)
Lower antioxidant can leads to poorer defence against
free radicals & speeds up the aging process.
d) Wrinkling (2 SNPs)
The speed at which collagen is being produced &
broken down affects how prone we are to wrinkling,
poor skin elasticity & skin sagging.
And the technical capability to accelerate innovation is also
growing…as the library of SNPS from Prenetics indicates…
6Source: Prenetics, IQVIA Analysis
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Map of the World – Circa 1300 AD
Source: Google Images, IQIA analytics
Given what could be different, how would you want to navigate to that future? What is the right map to use?
Map of the World – 21st Century Map of Chaoyang District - Beijing
Selecting the right tools – and in the right time frame as well as distance to the consumer – will be key success
factors
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• Intentional Futures (IF) is a different approach
to strategy planning using creatively developed
scenarios
• IF provides client teams with a shared and
agreed upon future they want to work towards
• The IF outcome is not a single point
forecast; it is a visualization of the explicit
future sought by a client, and the path to
achieving that future
• IF process also tells clients 3 key facts:
- What the key decisions they need to make are
- What the transformative choices are
- What the early warning signs or “Alarm Bells”
are, and how to react to these
Source: IQVIA analysis
We recommend a different type of map – Intentional Futures – to help clients sense the future and prepare appropriately for it
• IF’s scenarios are built through an iterative
process involving a cross functional client
team and IQVIA facilitators
- First, the question is defined e.g. what is future
of self care in Asia?
- Potential variables that can shape or change
that future are defined, and prioritized via vote
- The top 2 variables are used to build the 2x2
scenario
- Next, an IF workshop is conducted to discuss
variables and refine story line
- One future is selected as the “Official Future””
- Core and transformative decisions are identified,
alarm bells are noted, and refresh schedule is
set
18Source: IQVIA analysis
For example, our IF approach allows us to see 4 possible futures based on how we combine 2 variables: innovation and regulation
Regulatory Support
Industry Mindset on
Genetics Based
Personalization
Experimental
Status Quo
Conservative Innovative
2
1 3
4
1: Head Winds
2: Status Quo
3: Bright Lights
4: Slow Burn
A
19Source: IQVIA analysis
Each future that emerges varies in a number of key ways, and leads to different strategic choices
Future Description Implications Radical Decisions Early Signs
1: Head Winds • Model of care different but not
finalized; CH players push
brand and product innovations
but regulatory openness limited
• Game of cat and mouse
as technology races
ahead of rules e.g. use
of mass personalization
nutrition supplements
• Create regulatory capacity
“finishing school” to help
regulators support industry
growth
• Growing pool of
unapproved or
delayed initiatives;
and constant
revision of rules
2: Status Quo • Basic model of care reliant on
HCPs at core; market and
regulators evolving slowly, and
responding to external stimuli;
pace of change limited
• Room for new entrants if
they can offer sexier
vision to consumers;
new brands can enter
and dominate
• Shake up operating and
innovation model; and push
regulators to support
changes
• MNCs announcing
changes to operating
model
3: Bright Lights • Model of care built around
ecosystem, with mutually
reinforcing innovation from
brands and regulators,
including new partnerships to
deliver care
• Ecosystem of care and
network of partners more
important; brands vital
only if playing clear role
or will be replaced
• Build genetic database as an
industry, and share de-
identified access for R&D /
product development
• Retire non-specific
compounds / brands
• More regulatory
experiments e.g.
faster path for Rx to
OTC; online retailing
of OTC and Rx
allowed; genetics
partnership
announced
4: Slow Burn • Regulatory reform racing
ahead of brand owners, with
market playing catch-up
• Creates room for market
innovators to step in and
close gap
• Online platforms will also
step in with new brands
• Intensify innovation and
reduce reliance on US/EU
• Grow direct local market
genetic intelligence
collection
• Regulators develop
forum to support
local market
innovators
A
Nestle
Invested nearly US$250 million in
personalizing nutrition.
Campbell Soup
Invested in a new nutrition-focused
startup that uses data from an at-home
test kit to make personalized food
recommendations tailored to an
individual’s unique DNA.
How should one navigate a future in which large ecosystem players are placing personalized nutrition bets?
Source: Prenetics, IQVIA analysis
Determine
where to playacross the Personalized
Nutrition value chain.
Options
1. End-to-end solution
2. Nutritional additive
3. Branding &
packaging
4. In-store consumer
experience
Consider
new threatswhere Personalized
Nutrition may impact
your business.
Examples
1. Consumer privacy
concerns
2. Scalability
Review
partnershipacross the Personalized
Nutrition value chain.
Options
1. Test for strategic
collaboration &
innovations
2. Bring forward new
solutions with
existing partners
3. Pursue new Direct-
to-Consumer
Channels
Assess
capabilitiesto enable Personalized
Nutrition.
Evaluate Competitive
Advantage
1. Customer
experience
2. Digital engagement
3. Achievement of
desired health
outcomes
One step is to deepen your partnership plays…
Source: Prenetics, IQVIA analysis
Insurance Partners
University Spin-off in
2009
120+ Members
Strong
US $50m+ funding
Presence in HK,
SG, MY, TH, VN,
PH, SA, U.K.
200,000+ DNA
samples processed
Including with some of Asia’s leading genetics players such as Prenetics
Source: Prenetics, IQVIA analysis
Investors include
Alibaba Group and
Ping An
• Prudential
• AIA
• HSBC
• FWD
• Aviva
• Muang Thai Life Insurance
Such partnerships are ultimately innovation driven cycles designed to help consumers build personal choice…
Source: Prenetics, IQVIA analysis
…and transform how nutrition and supplement companies choose to win in a genetics influenced world…
Source: Prenetics, IQVIA analysis
25
• Such wise action involves actively shaping the regulatory landscape and dialogue on the role of genetics, as well as
starting to agree ground rules for self governance
• For example, as an ecosystem of partners and competitors, each other’s actions will impact how regulators and the public
view us; the sins of one can be visited on all
• Therefore a good starting point is adopting a regulatory management system i.e. a “Genetic Rights Champion” not just
voluntary guidelines but reasonably enforceable protocols, the failure to comply with which should attract a sharp penalty
• These proposed protocols include but are not limited to:
- giving consumers control over what we term their Genetic Information Account (GIA)
- working with governments to fund the creation of GIAs at a national level;
- respecting national restrictions on data storage and export; protection of data privacy
- creation of aggregated, de-identified data lakes for R&D purposes e.g. identifying genotype clusters; and
- choosing to avoid development and marketing of products based on “bad” genetic information outside of the norm
Source: IQVIA analysis
Irrespective of how we shape consumer ideas and preferences, or compete, it is in industry’s best interests to do so wisely
26
How well do we listen to our consumers?
The key takeaway is that the future of precision and self-care is not pre-determined; you can shape the outcome by always tackling 4 questions:
Source: IQVIA analysis
1
Are our brands matching what consumers tell us they want?
2
Are our brands available where the consumer is at the moment of purchase?
3
Are our brands priced to reflect what consumers value?
4
OTC / Self Care
Brands
27
Please Contact Us for More Information
Jude Uzonwanne
Principal, Asia Pacific Strategy & Transaction Services
+65 8498 3452
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