Personal Financial Management
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Transcript of Personal Financial Management
Personal Financial Management
Semester 2 2008 – 2009
Gareth Myles [email protected]
Paul Collier [email protected]
Reading
Callaghan: Chapter 5McRae: Chapter 2
Investing in Financial Assets
There are many financial assets available
Some are accessible to private investors Some are primarily for institutions We will focus on the former but mention some
of the latter Investment funds allow access to all assets
Portfolio Choice
The basic investment issue is to construct a portfolio of investments
This should have return and risk characteristics that match the investor’s needs
Example 1. An investor aged 25 in full-time employment may feel safe to “take a chance” and aim for a high risk/high return portfolio
Example 2. An investor aged 65 who is retired may want primarily to protect their capital in a low return/low risk portfolio
Portfolio Choice
Example 3. (Annuitisation)A private pension is invested in a range of
assets during working lifeUpon retirement the majority of the fund is
used to buy an annuityAn annuity pays a fixed income for
remainder of lifeThis represents transfer from risky to safe
assets
Portfolio Choice
The basic issue in portfolio design is to choose the assets to match risk preference
We need to know The risk and return characteristics of
individual assets How they interact with other assets
But first we need to know the available assets
Assets
Non-Marketable Assets which cannot be sold to someone else (e.g.
bank accounts) Marketable
Assets which can be traded Included here are bonds and stocks
Derivatives A specialised group of assets for institutions or very
sophisticated private investors Indirect Investments
Simplify portfolio construction and reduce costs
Non-Marketable Assets
The most important assets within this category areBank and building society accounts
Royal Bank of ScotlandGovernment savings bonds
National Savings and Investments
To purchase these private information must be revealedName, age, address, employment status,
even source of income
Marketable Assets
Shares (common stock, equity) Issued by companies to fund investmentHolder receives a dividend (share of profit), Holder has ownership rights (voting)To trade must open an account at a broker
On-line Broker Information is readily available
Yahoo Finance
Bonds (government or corporate)Promise a flow of payments (coupon
payments – equivalent to interest)Pay face value on maturityMaturity (at issue) from 3 months to many
yearsReturn depends on market assessment of
risk (default)Example
Marketable Assets
Marketable Assets
DerivativesAssets based on the price of other
“underlying assets”Call option: the right to buyPut option: the right to sellFutures: contracts in advance of delivery
Marketable Assets
Indirect InvestingPurchase of a share in a portfolioChoice of portfolio (ethical, trackers)Allows diversification at low cost
Abbey
Trading
Going long: holding a positive quantity of an asset This is the typical investment
Selling short: holding a negative quantity of an asset Takes advantage of expected price falls
Buying on the margin: borrowing money to invest Increases expected return and risk
Portfolio
A set of assets and the proportion of the portfolio in value terms they constituteExample ICI shares (20%), BP shares
(10%), Deposit account (30%), Bonds (30%), Unit trust (10%)
The return on a portfolio is the weighted average of that on the assets in the portfolio
The risk is more complex to compute
Effect of Covariance
Consider the returns on two assets in the two possible events next year
Consider the return on a portfolio: 1/3 of asset A, 2/3 of asset B
Asset A B
Rain 8 1
Sun 2 4
Effect of Covariance
Rain Sun
Return (1/3)8+(2/3)1=10/3 (1/3)2+(2/3)4=10/3
In this example the risk in the individual assets cancels when they are combined
Each asset does well in a different state
Effect of Covariance
This is an example of negative covariance
Because of the strong influence of market factors most assets have returns with positive covariance
But some combinations of assets have lower risk than other combinations with the same return
Portfolio Risk
When assets are combined into a portfolio it is possible to trade risk for return
There are some portfolios which are efficient (maximum return for given risk)
Some portfolios are inefficientThere is always a portfolio will least risk
(the minimum variance portfolio)
Return and Riskpr
p
mvpr
mvp
Efficient Frontier
Asset A only
Asset B only
Market Model
Consider the entire set of financial assets: these form the “market”
The riskiness of each individual asset can then be measured relative to the market
This gives an asset’s “beta”Portfolio risk is then proportional to
weighted average beta plus asset-specific risk
Beta
Return onMarket
Return onAsset
The slope of this line is for the asset
Return onMarket
Return onAsset
A risk-free assethas a of 0
Introducing Risk-free Asset
Return onMarket
Return onAsset
The of this asset is less than 1
Defensive Asset
45o
Return onMarket
Return onAsset
The of this asset is more than 1
Aggressive Asset
45o
Beta
Company Betas
Company Beta
AstraZeneca 0.8573
Barclays Bank 1.5259
BP 1.0082
HSBC Holdings 0.6071
Imperial Tobacco 0.5053
Portfolio Return and Risk
Let be the proportion of asset i in the portfolio
Portfolio return is The of the portfolio is
The portfolio variance is
So larger , larger variance
nnXXX 2211
iX
nnrXrXrXr 2211
2222eM
Portfolio Return and Risk
Portfolio
Portfolio Return
Risk-freeAsset
= 1
MarketReturn Choice of
efficientportfolios
Idiosyncratic Risk
What has happened to the idiosyncratic risk (risk not due to market) ? this is eliminated by diversificationas the number of assets held rises, the
individual variations cancelHow can we diversify economically?
by buying a tracker fund
2e
Practical Observations
Risk is reduced by diversificationHigher returns bring higher riskRisk can be assessed by using By altering ratio of risk-free and market,
can run through all feasible returnsA return higher than the market can be
obtained by going short in the risk-free: borrowing to invest (yes, this is risky)