Perpetual Energy Inc
Transcript of Perpetual Energy Inc
Perpetual Energy Inc. Webcast Presentation
April 9, 2012
1
Cautionary Statements
Forward-Looking Information
This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to Perpetual's business and operations that are based on management's current expectations, estimates and projections about its business and operations. Words and phrases such as "anticipates," "expects," "believes," "estimates," "projected," "future," "goals," "forecast," "plan," "opportunities," "upside," "will," "impact," "target," "2012 through 2015" and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements pertaining to: Perpetual's business diversification and price risk management strategies which include the transitioning from shallow gas assets to resource-style, growth orientated oil and NGL assets and divestitures to optimize value and decrease debt; projected economics for various projects; future capital expenditure levels; the top four strategic priorities for 2012; and diversification strategy scenarios for 2012 to 2015. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Perpetual undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: inaccuracies in the estimated timing and amount of future production of natural gas and oil due to numerous factors including permit delays or restrictions, weather, equipment failures, delays or lack of availability, unexpected subsurface or geologic conditions, lack of capital, increases in the costs of rented or contracted equipment, increases in labor costs, volumes of oil or gas greater or lesser than anticipated, and changes in applicable regulations and laws; unexpected problems with wells or other equipment, unexpected changes in operating costs and other expenses, including utilities, labor, transportation, well and oil field services, taxes, permit fees, regulatory compliance and other costs of operation; decreases in natural gas and oil prices, including price discounts and basis differentials; difficulties in accurately estimating the discovery, volumes, development potential and replacement of natural gas and oil reserves; the impact of economic conditions on our business operations, financial condition and ability to raise capital; variances in cash flow, liquidity and financial position; a significant reduction in our bank credit facility's borrowing base; availability of funds from the capital markets and under our back credit facility; our level of indebtedness; the ability of financial counterparties to perform or fulfill their obligations under existing agreements; write downs of our asset carrying values and oil and gas property impairment; the discovery of previously unknown environmental issues; changes in our business and financial strategy; inaccuracies in estimating the amount, nature and timing of capital expenditures, including future finding and development costs; the inability to predict the availability and terms of capital; issues with marketing of natural gas and oil including lack of access of markets, changes in pipeline and transportation tariffs and costs, increases in minimum sales quality standards for oil or natural gas, changes in the supply-demand status of gas or oil in a given market area, and the introduction of increased quantities of natural gas or oil into a given area due to new discoveries or new delivery systems; the impact of weather limiting or damaging operations and the occurrence of natural disasters such as fires, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and other catastrophic events and natural disasters; the high-risk nature of drilling and producing natural gas and oil, including blow-outs, surface caterings, fires, explosions; the competitiveness of alternate energy sources or product substitutes; technological developments; changes in governmental regulation of the natural gas and oil industry potentially leading to increased costs and limited development opportunities; changes in governmental regulation of derivatives; developments in natural gas-producing and oil-producing countries potentially having significant effects on the price of gas and oil; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles and IFRS promulgated by rule-setting bodies; the amount of future abandonment and reclamation costs, asset retirement and environmental obligations; expected realization of gas over bitumen royalty adjustments; inability to execute strategic plans and realize projected economics, expectations and objectives for future operations and price risk management strategies; and the other risk factors identified in our most recent financial statements and management's discussion and analysis and Annual Informational Form and our other filings on SEDAR. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed herein also could have material adverse effects on our business and operations and on the forward-looking statements contained herein.
2
Cautionary Statements continued.......
Non-GAAP Measures This presentation contains financial measures that may not be calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). Readers are referred to advisories and further discussion on non-GAAP measures contained in the "Non-GAAP Measures" section of our most recent management's discussion and analysis. IP rates Initial production or IP rates contained in this presentation are based the length of the specific production tests disclosed herein and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. Initial production rates disclosed herein are based on 3 days of initial production and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. Financial Outlooks Included in this presentation are estimates of Perpetual's future cash flow and debt levels, which are based on the various assumptions as to production levels, capital expenditures, commodity prices and other assumptions disclosed in this presentation. To the extent such estimates constitute a financial outlook, they were approved by management of Perpetual on April , 2012 and are included to provide readers with an understanding of Perpetual's anticipated financial position and readers are cautioned that the information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Reserves, Resource and F&D Disclosure Unless as otherwise noted, reserves and resource information included in this presentation is based on independent evaluations prepared by McDaniel and Associates Consultants Ltd. in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101") using McDaniel's forecast prices and costs. All of Perpetual's contingent resources currently have an "undetermined" economic status as sub-classification into economic and uneconomic categories has not been evaluated. Contingencies affecting the classification of the resources include corporate development plans, the need for regulatory approval, and the need to perform an economic study regarding production. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. Please refer to "Notes Pertaining to the Reporting of Bitumen Contingent Resource" in Perpetual's February 8, 2012 press release and Perpetual's most recent Annual Information Form for applicable definitions and risk factors pertaining to Perpetual's reserve and resource disclosure. Perpetual's F&D cost as well as finding, development and acquisition costs, before and after the inclusion of changes in future development capital are disclosed under the heading "Finding, Development and Acquisition ('FD&A') Costs" in Perpetual's February 8, 2012 press release. Please refer to this press release for additional disclosure pertaining to Perpetual's F&D costs. The aggregate of exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year. Projected Economics This presentation includes estimates of projected economics or value potential for Perpetual's Mannville heavy oil and West Edson Wilrich liquids rich gas assets. Estimates of "projected capital", "NPV@10%", "ROR", "F&D", "capital efficiency" and "recycle ratio" are provided in respect of these assets. These terms referenced in this presentation are estimates by Perpetual of future results based on the indicated assumptions and are by their nature projections which are different than terms calculated in accordance with NI 51-101, which are historical calculations. These estimates have been provided as Perpetual believes they provide a reasonable estimate of the future economics of Perpetual's Mannville heavy oil and West Edson Wilrich liquids rich gas value. These terms do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by NI 51-101, the COGE Handbook or CSA Notice 51-324 and therefore these measures, as defined by Perpetual, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. These estimate constitute forward-looking information and therefore reflects several material factors, expectations and assumptions and is subject to a number of risk factors. See "Forward-Looking Information" above for further information. Mcf equivalent (Mcfe) Mcf equivalent (Mcfe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. In accordance with NI 51-101 a Mcfe conversion ratio for oil of 1 Bbl: 6 Mcf has been used, which is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. Net Asset Value In relation to the disclosure of net asset value ("NAV") in this presentation, the NAV presented herein is what is normally referred to as a "produce-out" NAV calculation under which the current value of Perpetual's reserves would be produced at forecast future prices and costs and do not necessarily represent a "going concern" value of our company. The value is a snapshot in time and is based on various assumptions including commodity prices and foreign exchange rates that vary over time. It should not be assumed that the NAV represents the fair market
value of Perpetual.
Market Profile
Dividend suspended October 2011
Common shares outstanding 147 million
Management ownership 24.4%
Share price (5 day weighted average) $ 0.72
Market capitalization $ 105 million
Convertible debentures $ 235 million
Senior unsecured notes $ 150 million
Net bank debt (proforma pending dispositions) $ 20 million
Enterprise value $ 510 million
30 day weighted average daily trading volume ~325,150 shares
3
4
Perpetual Strategy – The Last 36 Months
• Build a diversified portfolio of repeatable, high return assets for growth
Capture positions in chosen strategies De-risk game changers at appropriate pace to manage risk Categorize assets for long term portfolio
Grow & harvest (keepers) Sustain & divest (funders)
• Increase oil and NGL production
• Divest of ‘funders’ when appropriate to optimize value and decrease debt
• Maintain exposure to gas price recovery
• Transition to growth-oriented corporation
Transitioning from 100% conventional shallow gas to diversified, resource-style, growth-oriented asset base
through declining gas price environment
$2.1410$1.7064
$1.0038
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$13.00
$14.00
$15.00Nymex/Aeco Daily Settles
Nymex $US/MMBTU
Aeco 5A $C/GJ
F/X US/CDN
5
Natural Gas Prices
Declining gas price environment since 2008 Reaching full capitulation in 2012
Sustainable Growth Plus Income Strategy
Targeting a sustainable income plus growth model
BASE CASH FLOW GENERATORS:
Target to Minimize Production
Declines and Maximize Free Cash Flow DIVERSIFYING GROWTH
STRATEGIES:
Target Value And Cash Flow Growth and Diversification
DIVIDENDS:
Target Sustainability
6
Actual & Deemed Production (March 2012) 25,600 Boe/d
Natural Gas (84%) 104 MMcf/d
NGL’s and Oil (16%) 3,400 bbl/d
Gas over Bitumen Deemed Production(1) 29 MMcf/d
P+P Reserves(3) 485 Bcfe
Reserve to Production Ratio (P+P) (RLI) 9.7 Years
Contingent Resource - Elmworth Montney(3) 136 Bcfe
Contingent Resource – Panny/Liege Bitumen(2) 213 MMbbl
Warwick Gas Storage Working Gas Capacity (gross) 17 Bcf
(1) Cash Flow = 0.5 x [(deemed production volume x 0.80) x (Alberta Reference Price - $0.3791/GJ)] (2) As evaluated by McDaniel in 2011 (3) As evaluated by McDaniel at year end 2010 and mechanically updated for reserves additions (4) 10 % ownership interest with option to increase to 40%
Operating Profile
• Conventional Shallow Gas
• Mannville Heavy Oil
• Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas
• Bitumen – Near Cold Flow – Panny Bluesky
• Bitumen – Thermal – Liege Carbonates
• Warwick Gas Storage
Eastern Alberta
• West Central Multi-Zone Liquids-Rich Gas
• Edson Wilrich
• Elmworth Montney Deep Basin
• Tight Oil and Gas Exploration
• TriOil Resources (2%) New Ventures
7
Entrepreneurial Approach to Value Creation
Invest For Growth • Edson Liquids-rich Wilrich Gas • Eastern Alberta Heavy Oil
Sustainable Cash Flow Generators
• Legacy Conventional Shallow Gas in Northeast & East Central Alberta
SHAREHOLDER VALUE
Optimize and Advance • Warwick Gas Storage • Elmworth Montney Gas • Viking/Colorado Shale Gas • Panny Bitumen
Exposure to Emerging Technologies
• NE Alberta Bitumen in Carbonates • Tight Oil & Gas Exploration • GOB Technical Solutions
TriOil Resources (2%)
OPTION VALUE
DIVERSIFYING GROWTH
STRATEGIES
CASH FLOW GENERATORS
+
=
+
+
+
8
9
1. Grow Oil and NGL Production Profitably through Capital Investment in 2 Key Commodity-Diversifying Priorities
Mannville heavy oil Wilrich liquids-rich gas
2. Restore Healthy Balance Sheet Dividend suspension Net Dispositions of $75 to $150 million Repay PMT.DB.C in June in cash Capital program funded within cash flow
3. Manage downside risks Decrease costs Protect cash flow Maintain optionality for debt management
4. Advance assessment of high impact opportunities with risk-
managed investment Viking/Colorado Panny Bitumen Mannville heavy oil waterflood/EOR
Focused plan to weather bottom of gas price cycle and thrive in transition
TOP 4 Strategic Priorities – 2012
Assets and Operations
11
Base Legacy Assets – Conventional Shallow Gas
Belly River
Viking
Grand Rapids
Lower Mannville
Pre Cretaceous Unconformity
Extensive inventory to minimize production declines at industry-leading capital efficiencies
East Central and Northeast Alberta
Cretaceous and Devonian sweet shallow gas
65% of production base
Base declines < 20%
Multiple stacked zones and play types
~700 uphole recompletions awaiting depletion of producing zones Low cost production and reserves adds (<$10,000/BOE/d;
<$1.00/Mcf)
Typically ~150 recompletions per year
380+ new drill prospects Historical drilling success > 90%
Seismic definition and step out of infrastructure drive prospects to drill ready
Multi-zone drills generally convert to reserves in 1 or 2 zones with additional zones captured as uphole completions in prospect inventory
~10 -20 new drills per year - best return and strategic only
Average well $0.4 MM D C & E
Risked IP 300 Mcf/d; EUR 0.3 Bcf
(<$25,000/BOE/d; <$1.77/Mcf)
Diversifying Growth Strategies
‘Chosen Key Priorities’
KC
F
GG
G
G
E
G
JF
G
E
G
IE
CU
IJI
EU
EJ
SUGU
E
GU
J
EU
J
SUEI
U SUEUM
UDU
G
LD
G
G
G
G
LLF
LFLU CULF
LFL
FUUUUUFF
FLF
G
EEUIU
EUEUEUEUEUIU
SU
SU
G
E US U
E US UE
UI US
U
SUE U
DU
EU
EU
EU
EUE
UE
UE
U
E UE
UE UM
UJ
USUEUSUEU
SUSUEUIUEU
SUF
F
IUEU
EUSUS
SEUEUIU
GIU
SU
CUEU
SUSU
SUIU
F
IU
F
S USU
G
F
L
F
GF
F
F
F
F
F
G
F
F
C
LF
F
F
F
G
FC
F
GF
G
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
IUFU
F
FE
G
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
G
F
F
GFF
F
LD
FG
F
F
L
F
LF
F
G
F
F
G
F
CD
LL
FA
KF
FAF
FFF
L
FK
LL
L
LF
G
LLGG
F
G
G
K
K
FC
G
KC
F
G
G
FGG
LLLL
L
F
L
L
LC
LCK
L
EV
LLAFL
L
JK
L
CC
FF
LL
LL
L
CUFU
A V
E
I V
FC
G
F
C
LG
FF
FALK
G
G
DV
G
F
G V
GV
G
D
V
E V
DV
G
D V
KK
D V
G
D V
KU
LFA
F
V
FAA
C
G
CUFU
A V
GULUFU
G
JKG
G
G
G
GC
G
KV
GULULU
FU
G
K
V
LL
G
G
G
CCCCCCCCGCK
DV
LFFFJLF
G
LU
G
G
KK
G
KCKKK
LF
G
GJLK
F
FV
G
LKF
KV
G
G
G
KF
G
JL
KK
KFC
GG
DV
GUFU
LLK
CGCC
FK
FA
LFK
G
G
GCC
CC
CC
L
L
F
GUCUGUCU
G
KF
G
LKK
V
G
LLG
G
G
F
AA
G
K
F
GJE
CG
EU
G
EU SUSIU
LF
EUSUEUEEUIUEUESEUEUISEU
SUE UEUSUIUEUEV
IU
GVEU SU SUEUSUEU
EUSU EUE
U
EUEU
SUEU
IU
SUIU
EULU
S
IKKEUEU
G
D
EUS
E
IU
EIUSU
EIU
EUEUIUIUE USU
SUEU
SUSU
EUIUEU
SU
I USUI U
G
EU
S U
IU
EUI
U EU
EU EU
EU
EU
EU
E U
IU
I U
SU
EU
S U
EUS
U
SUSUSUEUS U
SU
LFA
EUSU
G
IUEU
EUEUS
UDEUISU
EU
SU
JU
G
IUI
U IU
EU
SU
GUSU
SU
SU
SUSU
IU
EU
EUEU
EU
GDUI
UIU
EU
F
EU
EU
SU
SU
GK
EU
MESUI U
SDU
EUE
IUSEU
EU
SUIU
SU
SUSU
SUEUE U
IU
GUEUI
UL
G
EU
IUEUIUE UE U
EU
LU
E UEUS U
EU
S
SUS US
UEU
GU
SUS
USUS UE U
E U
EU
G
EUEEU
E
CU
IG
L
F
KGK
JG
EL
GG
G
LF
E
L
L
JU
KFG
K
G
KFCF
LLG
EU
EUEUEU
EU
L
EUDLEUEU
G
K
SUEUSU
GJLGEU
C
LJ
EU
G
F
G
FKCLF
CKJK
GU
G
F
G
K
K
F
K
G
F
G
SJSESE
GJ
S
G
ES
GF
J
FG
SE
E
S
SU
EI
S
I
EUS
E
ES
SE
EUSE
E
E
EM
EU
SE
S
EUS
S
E
ES
E
ES
F
SEU
F
E
E
SE
E
E
S
S
S
S
SE
EUMIM
S
E
E
E
SE
EU
EU
E
E
E
G
SE
E
E
S
S
ES
S
EU
E
EUS
F
ES
E
SE
S
E
ES
E
E
E
ES
JE
S
IDS
JD
E
E
E
S
SS
SESE
S
E
EUESESEV
S
F
EE
E
S
S
GS
E
E
J
E
FA
E
G
LGES
S
M
S
E
F
E
EJE
G
ES
M
S
S
G
E
G
SE
E
SE
E
ES
ES
F
GFA
SES
E
E
EEUEEU
G
KF
F
G
F
FA
F
V
GFA
VF
F
F
VF
F
IUFEUSU
F
IUSUEUSUEU
SU
IU SUEU
F
F
F
SU SU EU
F
F
F
EUSUUEUGUEUIUESUSUUSUUEUSUSUEU
F
F
EUE US US UE UE
U
F
I UE
UE US US
US
USUEUEUEUSUSUEU
F
EUIU
SU
F
F
G
GU
EU
G
DU SU
FV
KU
EU
GU
IUSUEUSUEUEUAAAIUCAUAUAUCUAUEU
SUEUEU
SU EU
SU
EU EU
SU
GU
EU
J
G
UIU
GU
IUEU
SU
SU
E U
SU
EU
EU
SUEUSU
EU
SUSUEU
E U
EU
D
U
EU SUE
U
G
SUS
EU
C UA U
GU
EU
EUD
EUEU
UU
SU
SU
SU
EUEU
EUI
UEU
IU
EEE
IU
SU
SU
E
D
E
U
EU
U
EU
SU
EU
SU
J
EU
EU
EU
EU
SU
EUE
U
SUEU
SU
EU
SUSU
EU
EU
EU
E
EU
E
U
EU
E
DE
EU
SU
U
EUEU
IU
S
EUD
EU
U
J
SU
SU
EU
EU
S U
SU
SUEU
S UE U
D
U
EUSUSU
EU
EUEU
EUEUEU
SU
S
EUSU
E UE U
D
DUE U
GU
SU
SUSUEUEU
S
USU
SU
EU
S U
EU
EU
SUE U
EU
EME UEU
DUE U
EU
EU
DUE UFGUEUEEUEUSEUSU
S
UDU
E
E
E
EJ
SE
E
E
S
F
S
SE
EESESEUG
E U
G
SEEEU
EU
F
EU
LU
E
EUSUGU
LKL
E UGU
CU
LG
F
F
F
G
FV F
F
G
LGC
F
F
F
F
F
G
F
G
EU
G
SUF
V
EUSU EUE
UIU
L
F
SUSUEUSUIU
F
F
F
EU
EUEUSUI
GUGU
DU
F
S
F
SUSU
EUEUSUEUEU
SUEU
EUE
UEU
L
FA
F
F
F
F
F
L
G
F
GF
G
G
C
GGGF
C
G
F
GF
KF
LK
L
G
L
GK
C
FA
FF
LLCF
G
GC
FCC
CCCCCCCC
G
CC
GCF
C
F
LL
FFF
LC
CG
CG
G
G
G
F
FC
LFG
G
FF
F
GG
C
G
CF
KF
G
G
F
KF
FCKK
FC
G
F
G
K
KG
G
F
F
CA
J
FC
C
G
GC
JGLGG
JGFF
G
KK
LUKUKU
K
G
FK
KK
G
G
CV CV
KUCU
CKK
G
G
G
F
LLKK
KKC
G
GU
G
C
F
G
KKC
G
G
G
KAK
G
GKGG
G
C V
KF
G
J
G
GCC
G
K
L
L
G
C
KUAULLAFFFACCG
G
GCCKF
E
V
LLAAAC
GLKK
LKGL
E
V
CKK
G
FK
GJFE
V
E
L
E
V
G
EFC
E
V
G
FF
G
G
C
E
V
K
E
V
FUFU
FA
G
E
V
L
ICF
F
GU
C
E
V
E V
FAA
EV
G
F
FU FU
G
LF
KUAU
EL
LF
G
FUCU
KUFUKU
G
GULULU
FU
FUKUFU
G
G
CV
G
GGFA
K
GUFU
G
G
FF
KUFU
AV
LLGAF
GC
C UFUJF
G
KKCF
GUGU
JLF
GUFUFU
FA
G
FF
LF
KU
KC
IKLF
JG
JLKF
F
C
EVAVAV
LF
EV
GGFF
GF
G
DLFKC
LLLFF
G
G
FF
LF
G
LLKF
G
G
KFLK
LLL
G
F
LKFE
KF
LLCCC
EU
G
JLKCE
EV
I
V
G
JC
LFF
CVEV
I
V
FLG
D
V
LKCE
JF
JLK
G
F
GG
E V
GGGCF
FUAU
E VC V
E
JKF
LL
G
JLG
CK
E V
MK
F
KF
F
GGGGF
GUGUFUAU
E
LL
JLLFE
G
C V
E V
C V
E V
LLFKF
FUFU
EU
LULULULUCU
G
ELLGC
JFK
K
KF
L
FA
I
AV
GF
L
G
LLL
A V
GF
KCF
LLLLLC
LKF
F
LCFA
LLJ
LFK
LF
F
LLGKGC
FA
GU
KU
KU
FU
G
LULUFUCUCU
GG
LL
GUFU
K
FA
F
LK
C
G
LL
GKKCC
G
K
GC
G
KKLK
LLGL
G
LFF
G
LUAUFU
LLLCFLUFU
GFLL
LL
C
LF
F
LL
FCCFF
F
FA
FF
FUGUF
GC
KF
C
G
LL
FKF
G
G
GGK
G
GL
FFF
LLLK
CF
LL
KLA
GG
KF
CF
G
KK
C
G
G
LL
G
LLCGG
G
G
G
G
G
G
FC
L
GL
G
F
LFG
GG
GF
LGF
GGCCCCCCCCK
K
GG
G
GGG
LLLLL
L
KC
FU
L
LF
JJFJ
GGLC
LF
C
GKF
G
E
G
SEESE
D
SA
ME
I
JJ
S
G
E
G
S
AEEG
E
I
G
E
ES
S
E
GEE
J
G
ES
ES
S
ES
G
E
SE
J
S
J
E
E
GGJUGU
S
E
S
S
E
C
D
E
M
E
JG
E
E
GUMUGJ
S
JE
GJ
G
GSE
SE
J
K
S
ESE
ES
E
E
EU
JJ
S
E
E
S
E
JJ
S
JG
J
J
JGJM
E
E
E
S
S
MMM
S
G
E
GMU
E
E
E
G
EU
JJ
S
S
ES
J
E
E
E
SESE
S
SEEU
E
U
EU
EGS
MESEM
E
EUSEU
EUDE
SSJS
SE
E
IS
E
MM
J
SGGE
EJ
EU
S
S
E
E
S
S
EE
E U
E U
G
E
G
S
S
E
S
EM
EU
E
G
E USE
ES
SE
E
E
ES
S
S
S
E
ME
LEM
E
DMDM
EU
E
S
S
D
EU
I
EU
EU
EU
S
SESE
E
E
EU
ES
S
ESESUM
E
UEU
E
E
M
GSS
SMES
E
EU
EU
E
ESU
JS
S
E
SU
L
S
E
S
SU
G
SE
EE
E
S
M
LL
E
SE
S
S
DES
SESE
E
IUS
S
G
E
ES
F
E
ESE
EI
S
E
FF
J
F
F
GU
GU
G
J
EF
F
J
LF
FCF
FG
C
V
F
K
GF
G
GU
F
G
F
G
G
F
V
F
CF
F
GF
LLF
F
LUFU
C
F
L
G
G
GU
F
V
F
F
F
F
F
FC
F
F
G
G
FF
F
G
KF
GU
G
GG
F
G
G
F
G
F
G
KG
F
G
LLCF
G
GFG
G
F
GLF
CF
F
G
C
G
LGF
GJG
F V
LL
LL
VVVVVVVV
G
FUCU
G
GC
G
F
K
F
G
F
F
F
C
G
F
AF
LL
C
K
JL
T47
T48
T49
T50
T51
T52
T47
T48
T49
T50
T51
T52
R7W4R8R9R10
R7W4R8R9R10
File: BW_East_Mannville Conv Heavy ODatum: NAD27 Projection: Stereographic Center: N53.28294 W111.20866 Created in AccuMap™, a product of IHS
Geographically synergistic with shallow gas assets
Production established from 10 Mannville pools
6 Lloydminister, 3 Sparky, 1 Basal Quartz
> 122 MMbbl Original Oil in Place (1)
> 6 MMbbl @ 5% recovery factory
Production > 3,000 bbl/d exit for Q1 2012
Low cost HZ development
HZ ~ $1,050 K /well
No stimulations required
Average initial rate over 100 bbl/d
Evaluating downspacing, waterflood and other enhanced recovery
Additional exploration ongoing
15-20 additional exploration prospects identified and captured
Extensive in-house 3D & 2D seismic
123,000 net acres of lands
13
Eastern Alberta - Conventional Heavy Oil
Inventory includes 200 locations at varying stages of drill readiness
~3D coverage
Sparky
Lloyd
Mannville
Basal Quartz
(1) Independent Resource Evaluation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0
35
,00
0
40
,00
0R
ate
(b
bl/
d)
Cumulative Prod (bbl)
Sparky PoolINDIVIDUAL PROD vs TYPE CURVE
00/14-33-050-08W4/0
00/15-33-050-08W4/0
00/13-33-050-08W4
02/13-33-050-08W4
00/16-32-050-08W4
02/16-32-050-08W4
03/04-04-051-08W4/0
02/04-04-051-08W4/0
00/01-28-050-08W4/0
00/02-28-050-08W4/0
00/03-28-050-08W4/0
Risked Type Curve
Sparky ‘Type Curve’
Average initial rate over 100 bbl/d
14
Eastern Daily Oil Production
Performance exceeding expectations Approaching 3,000 bbl/d
15
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Oil
b
bl/
d
Eastern Daily Oil Production
Actual
Current Estimate
Notes: (1) Q1 2012 Capital Expenditures for Mannville Heavy Oil is $20 MM of $34MM total (2) Full year 2012 Mannville Heavy Oil Capital Expenditures estimated at $42MM of $65MM total budget
Assumptions
Pricing $105/bbl WTI; $35/bbl differential = $70 Lloydminister heavy blend
Operating Costs $10.50/BOE (first year), $29/BOE (lifetime)
Type Curve IP 70 bbl/d, One year exit rate 37 bbl/d
Reserves 75 Mbbl per well
Royalties 5% for first 18 months; 10% thereafter
Growing low-risk heavy oil drilling inventory in excess of 100 drill-ready locations
Mannville Heavy Oil Value Potential
16
Projected Economics per Drilling Location
Capital (D,C & T) $1.05 MM
NPV @ 10 % $1.05 MM BT
ROR 95% BT
F&D $14.46/ BOE
Capital Efficiency ~$21,950 BOE/d
Recycle Ratio 3.9
Oil over shakers while drilling HZ wellsite Sparky development pad
Edson Wilrich Liquids – Rich Gas
17
Horizontal Well
Q1 2012 Wells
Edson 16-10 Compressor Capacity 30 MMcf/d
1-34 New Compressor Capacity 12 MMcf/d
Edson
West
Edson
Doubled Wilrich land position in 2011... 80 net locations and growing 36 bbl/MMcf NGLs
Q1 drill tested 15.5 MMcfd @ 14 MPa
To Edson third – party deep cut plant
Assumptions
Pricing $4/Mcf; $95/bbl WTI = $66.30/bbl NGLs ($3/Mcf; $105/bbl WTI = $76.50/bbl NGLs)
Operating Costs $6.45/BOE
Well Depth 3,900 M HZ; 2,400 TVD
Type Curve IP 3.5 MMcf/d, One year exit rate 1.85 MMcf/d 36 bbls/MMcf NGL’s/condensate
Reserves 3 Bcfe per well
Royalties 5% new well royalty rate for 500 MMscf
Risk Unrisked
Projected Economics per Drilling Location
Capital (D,C & T) $4.9 MM
NPV @ 10 % $3.6 MM BT ($2.3 MM BT)
ROR 53% BT (37% BT)
F&D $10.47/ BOE
Capital Efficiency <$12,000 BOE/d
Recycle Ratio 2.54 (2.19)
Flare while drilling 13-5 Wilrich HZ
West Edson Wilrich exceeding type curve Higher pressure with higher initial rates and expected reserves and better economics
Preparing to Frac 13-5 Wilrich HZ
Wilrich Value Potential
Pad completion in section 5
18
Other Diversifying Growth Strategies
‘Optimize and Advance’
20
Area development plan likely will include new plant construction
Perpetual Locations Montney Producers Perpetual Lands
ELMWORTH
92 Gross Sections of Montney Exposure
50/50 Joint Venture with Tourmaline
Reserves and Contingent Resource
Close to 4 Tcf OGIP (internal estimate)
>1 Tcf gross OGIP in Montney B recorded by McDaniel
42 Bcfe net P+P reserves booked
136 Bcfe net best estimate additional contingent resource
34 gross (17 net) sections not yet evaluated (SW Wapiti Block)
Technical Viability of Play Confirmed
Over 20 competitor wells drilled & tested ; further drilling ongoing
IP (1 month) of offset HZ wells 3 to 6 MMcf/d
3 Perpetual-interest wells tested 6 to 8 MMcf/d/well
Recombined free liquids and NGLs ~ 20 bbl/MMcf condensate plus 25 to 45 bbl/MMcf NGLs (processing – dependent)
2% H2S
West Central Alberta Resource Projects – Elmworth Montney
Elmworth Montney Prospect Inventory
21
>150 Identified Future Undeveloped Locations
C
B
A
Drilled & Flow Tested
Drilled & Tested
Initial Development POD
Initial Development 50 MMcf/d gross POD
Gross Startup Activities per Development Pod 12 Upper Montney wells Compression Separation Dehydration Facilities Associated P/L Gathering Systems
Gross Start Up Capital $100 – 120 million 12 wells drilled plus facilities in Year 1 Drill to fill ~ 4-6 gross wells/year thereafter Total of ~50 wells per POD
Drilled & Tested
POD 2
POD 3
Resource Projects - Viking / Colorado Tight Shallow Gas
22
Vast Tight Shallow Gas Play
Booked Reserves (Viking Only)
4 Bcf P+P Producing 14 Bcf P+P Developed Non-Producing 80 Bcf P+P Undeveloped 903 Vertical drills in future development
capital Average 138 MMcf/well gross
Prospect Inventory
Over 475 sections of land with where unbooked Viking potential has been identified
2011
Advanced detailed technical study
Special core analyses
Gas in Place analysis, production inflow and fracture modeling
Phase 1 of pilot plan evaluating fracture performance through recompletions
2012
Phase 2 of pilot plan evaluating fracture performance through recompletions
Incorporate learnings from pilot into plan for commercial trials and full scale execution
Belly River Play Fairway Cardium/ Colorado Wells Perpetual Lands Viking Proved Undeveloped Viking Probable Undeveloped Viking Proven Non-Producing Prospect Inventory 5 Yr
Bitumen Lands
23
Perpetual OS Leases
Fireflood Projects
CSS Projects
Primary Projects
Oil Pipelines
SAGD Projects
Electric Heaters
527 net sections (335,979 net acres) of oil sand leases
7 discrete project areas
Various formation targets and ultimate recovery methods
2011 Q1 Activity Tested 4 project areas - South
Liege, Hoole, and Panny
9 verticals; 1 Hz
24
Bitumen – Panny Bluesky
Excellent reservoir quality in Bluesky homogeneous shoreface
sand facies
2010/11 Vertical Locations
2010/11 Horizontal Locations
8m Bitumen
10m Bitumen
Roads Natural Gas Pipeline Oil Well Effluent Pipeline Perpetual Gas Plant Perpetual Oil Sands Rights Other Perpetual Lands
Q1 2011
Drilled 3 vertical, 1 HZ to evaluate possibility of cold flow in greater Panny area
Established low rate flow without solvent or thermal assistance
Average pay thickness 11 m
Fairly low viscosity bitumen
~15,000 cp @ 25 C
Resource Assessment (McDaniel) 755 MMbbl Discovered OBIP (P50)
132 MMbbl Contingent Resource (P50) assigned utilizing horizontal cyclic steam
Future drilling planned targeting contingent resource expansion
Submitted application for pilot test
Bitumen – Liege Carbonates
Q1 2011 OV Wells Perpetual Oil Sand Leases Leduc Reef
GROSMONT NET BITUMEN
10 - 20 m
20 – 30 m
>30 m
T95
T94
T93
T92
T91
T90
R19 W4 R 20 R 21 R 22
T89
3 Grosmont carbonate / Leduc wells drilled in Q1 2011 to evaluate resource
Stacking of 3 Grosmont units; > 30 m pay
Leduc reef facies present and bitumen saturated in places; geologically complex
P50 Resource Assessment (McDaniel)
2,327MM bbl bitumen in place (Undiscovered plus Discovered)
66 MM bbl Contingent Resource assigned
400 MM bbl Prospective Resource assigned
20% recovery factor applied using SAGD as ‘technology under development’
Excellent reservoir quality vuggy porosity in Grosmont
25
Diversification Strategy Summary
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
36%
42%
48%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F
% D
ive
rsif
yin
g G
row
th v
s Le
gacy
An
nu
al A
ve
rage
Pro
du
ctio
n (M
cfe
/d)
Growth vs Legacy Assets
Legacy Shallow Gas Production GOB Deemed Production Diversifying Growth Assets 2007 Dispositions2008 Dispositions 2009 Dispositions2010 Dispositions 2011 Dispositions2012 Dispositions % Diversifying Growth Assets (Excluding Deemed)
27
Diversification Strategy - Resource Growth Plays
8 fold increase in production from resource-style growth assets in two years
28
Diversification Strategy - Oil and Liquids Production
260% increase in oil and liquids production in two years Trend to continue in 2012
29
Cash Flow Diversification - Oil and Liquids Revenue
270% increase in oil and liquids revenue in two years Trend to continue in 2012
Asset Divestiture Program
31
Asset Divestiture Program
Q1 through Q3 2011: Disposition proceeds totaled $38 million
Non-core properties in northeast and west central Alberta and undeveloped land in the Pembina area
November 2011: Announced non-core asset divestiture program targeting proceeds of $75 - $150 million for debt reduction and June debenture repayment
Q4 2011 to Q1 2012: $66.8 million in further non-core dispositions closed
Production sold ~8 MMcf/d and 390 bbl/d oil and NGL (1,900 boe/d - 85% gas)
April 5, 2012: Announced further transactions for total proceeds of $84.3 million expected to close by April 30, 2012
No production impact
Reduced 2012 cash flow by $2 – 3 million
Continue to pursue additional asset sales
Target Exceeded - $151.1 MM proceeds from dispositions
Grass Roots Gas Storage Development of existing depleted gas pool
‘Test Cycle’ Injection: Q2/Q3 2010
Facility Construction Q2-Q4 2010
> 200 MMcf/d withdrawal capacity
‘Test Cycle’ Withdrawal: Q1 2011 7.8 Bcf
Second Cycle: Q2 2011 – Q1 2012 17 Bcf
Commercial ‘Park and Loan’ business
Cycle 3 working gas capacity set at 17 Bcf
2012 full scale operations forecast operating cash flow $11 MM
Expansion opportunities with additional capital
30 to 50 year life
Warwick Gas Storage
32
Non-depleting, long life, diversified asset
Warwick Glauconitic -Nisku A Pool
WGSI Storage Leases
• 40 Bcf Storage Reservoir − 10 Bcf base reserves cushion gas in place − 5 -11 Bcf additional operating cushion − Up to 25 Bcf potential working gas capacity
• 1.2 to 1.5 cycle facility
1 mi
WGSI Leases Well Site Pad Compressor Facility Pipeline Horizontal Wells H1 2011 Hz Well H2 2011 Hz Wells
4-18
5-18
2-19
Warwick Joint Venture Arrangement
Sale of 90% partnership interest in Warwick Gas Storage
Perpetual to manage and operate asset for annual fee
For a period of one year post closing, Perpetual has option for one-time election to
repurchase up to an additional 30% equity interest, resulting in Perpetual owning
between 10% and 40% of WGSI partnership
Option purchase price reflects prorata disposition price less distributed cash
flow plus adjustments
One year option allows Perpetual to evaluate balance sheet and other capital
investment opportunities and further assess natural gas market, reservoir
performance and expansion project before making election to increase
ownership
33
33
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
35
~75% of proforma total net debt has term of almost 3 years or greater
• Current Net Bank Debt (proforma dispositions): ~$20 million Revised borrowing base on credit facility - $140 million
Next semi-annual redetermination prior to October 31, 2012
• Senior Unsecured Notes: $150 million Coupon Rate - 8.75%; Maturity date - March 2018
• Convertible Debentures: $235 million Repayable with bank debt or with equity at Perpetual discretion
Expect PMT.DB.C to be repaid in cash at June 30, 2012
$160 million effectively represents long term debt with 2015 maturities
TSX Symbol
Amount Outstanding
Coupon Rate
Conversion Price
Maturity Date
5 Day Weighted
Avg. Trading Price
PMT.DB.C $ 74.9 million 6.50% $ 14.20 June 30, 2012 $ 92.00
PMT.DB.D $ 100.0 million 7.25% $ 7.50 January 31, 2015 $ 80.00
PMT.DB.E $ 60.0 million 7.00% $ 7.00 December 31, 2015 $ 80.00
• Total Net Debt (proforma dispositions): ~$405 million
Balance Sheet
36
Debt reduction through asset base repositioning
Managing Downside Risk
Price Risk Management Strategy
• Enhance or protect funds flow and balance sheet
• Enhance or protect the economics of an acquisition as prices vary from those forecast
• Enhance or protect capital program economics
• Capitalize on perceived market anomalies
38
(1) Futures price reflects forward market prices as at April 5, 2012 (2) Calculated using 2012 Q2-Q4 estimated gas production of 131,000 GJ/d, including actual and gas over bitumen deemed
projected production
Natural Gas Hedging
Type of Contract
Term Volumes at AECO
(GJ/day)
Price
($/GJ)
AECO/NYMEX Futures Price
($/GJ) (1)
% of 2012E
Q2-Q4
Production (2)
AECO Fixed Price Apr – Dec 2012 44,000 $2.60 $1.92 33%
AECO Fixed Price Apr – Oct 2012 10,000 $2.85 $1.76 6%
AECO Fixed Price Jan – Dec 2012 45,250 $3.73 $1.92 35%
AECO Fixed Price Jan – Dec 2013 25,000 $3.24 $2.85 19%
Gas Price Protection for 74% of April – December Forecast Production at $3.13/GJ Mark to Market Value of Natural Gas Forward Sales ~ $25 MM for Remainder of 2012
39
(1) Calculated using 2012 Q2 -Q4estimated oil and NGL production of 3,450 bbl/d
Crude Oil Hedging
Type of Contract
Term
Volumes at WTI
(bbl/day)
Floor Price
($US/bbl)
Ceiling Price
($US/bbl)
% of 2012E
Production (3)
Collar Jan – Dec 2012 500 $82.00 $91.00 14%
Collar Jan – Dec 2012 500 $80.00 $89.00 14%
Collar Jan – Dec 2012 500 $85.00 $97.00 14%
Collar Jan – Dec 2012 500 $90.00 $109.00 14%
Period Total Jan – Dec 2012 2,000 $84.25 $96.50 57%
Type of Contract
Term
Volumes at WTI
(bbl/day)
Strike Price
($US/bbl)
Call Jan – Dec 2013 1,000 $95.00
Call Jan – Dec 2013 1,000 $105.00
Call Jan – Dec 2014 2,000 $105.00
Type of Contract
Term
Volumes
(bbl/day)
Price
($US/bbl)
WCS differential Jan – Dec 2012 400 $(17.35)
WCS differential Mar – Dec 2012 500 $(28.75)
40 2012 oil prices volatility managed with collars and fixed WCS differentials
Outlook
Conventional Gas Activity,
$0.4
Wilrich Liquids-Rich
Gas, $7.1
Other Deep Basin, $1.0
Mannville Heavy Oil,
$21.4
Unconventional Viking/Colorado
, $0.1
Land/Seismic, $2.9
Maintenance Capital, $1.3
Facility Optimization,
$1.5
42
Q1 2012 Capital Budget
Q1 2012 Capital Budget: $34 MM
Heavily weighted to oil and liquids-rich gas
Drill, Complete and Tie-ins: $29 MM
Heavy Oil – 20 gross (20 net) heavy oil wells
Wilrich – 3 gross (2.5 net)
Recompletions / Workovers: $2 MM
12 recompletions/workovers & tie ins
Seismic and Land: $3 MM
Maintenance , Abandonment & Reclamation: $1 MM
35 gross abandonments
Target Production Additions
~8.2 MMcfe/d (1st 12 month average)
Budget Capital Efficiency ~$26,076/flowing BOE/d
Close to 100% million targeting oil and liquids rich gas projects
43
2012 Full Year Capital Scenario
Project Activity Objective 2012 Capex
Indicative Play
Specific F&D
($/Boe)
Mannville Heavy Oil Drill 20 gross (20 net) Mannville wells
Significantly increase oil
production and cash flow 20 20.90
Wilrich Drill 3 gross (2.5 net) Wilrich wells
Grow liquids rich and cash flow
production 7 18.00
Other Deep Basin Drill 1 Well Evaluate new oil play 1 35.20
Land and Seismic Increase holding on key plays 3
Other
12 Recompletions and Workovers, 35
Abandonments, 3 Overhaul projects 3
Total Q1 34
Mannville Heavy Oil Drill 19 gross Mannville wells
Significantly increase oil
production and cash flow 22 20.90
Wilrich/Fahler Drill 1 well
Increase inventory of
opportunities 1 18.00
Other Deep Basin Drill 2 Wells, Evaluate new oil play 4 35.20
Other 21Workover and recompletions 4 --
4 Abandonments/EH&S projects
1 Facilities overhauls --
Land and seismic --
Potential Q2-Q4 31
Total 65
Total Capital: $65 MM
Vast majority of capital directed to Mannville Heavy Oil Modest Wilrich spending to earn lands and evaluate West Edson
Diversification Strategy 75% Heavy Oil;
25% Wilrich
45
Diversification Strategy Scenario 75% Heavy Oil/25% Wilrich Capital 2012 - 2015
Assumptions •Oil and gas strip pricing @ March 23, 2012 • $60MM capex for 2012; $75MM in 2013; $125MM in 2014-15 • 75% Mannville; 25% Wilrich post-2012 at current type curve assumptions and economics • Pro forma for Warwick gas storage joint venture arrangement at 10% PMT retention • $75MM 2012 debentures and $160 MM of 2015 debentures repaid in cash
Excess Cash Flow for Debt
Repayment or Reinvestment
46
Diversification Strategy Scenario Forward Market Price Strip Assumptions 2012 - 2015
47
Diversification Strategy Scenario 75% Heavy Oil/25% Wilrich Capital 2012 - 2015
Assumptions •Oil and gas strip pricing @ March 23, 2012 • $60MM capex for 2012; $75MM in 2013; $125MM in 2014-15 • 75% Mannville; 25% Wilrich post-2012 at current type curve assumptions and economics • Pro forma for Warwick gas storage joint venture arrangement at 10% PMT retention • $75MM 2012 debentures and $160 MM of 2015 debentures repaid in cash
48
Diversification Strategy Scenario – 100% Heavy Oil Year end Debt 2012 - 1015
Assumptions •Oil and gas strip pricing @ March 23, 2012 • $60MM capex for 2012; $75MM in 2013; $125MM in 2014-15 • 75% Mannville; 25% Wilrich post-2012 at current type curve assumptions and economics • Pro forma for Warwick gas storage joint venture arrangement at 10% PMT retention • $75MM 2012 debentures and $160 MM of 2015 debentures repaid in cash
49
Sum of the Parts
PMT Trading at Less than 1/3 reserve-based ‘blowdown’ NAV
All project values @ McDaniel January 1, 2012 oil and gas price forecasts
Investment Thesis
50
Asset base repositioning for oil and liquids-focused opportunities successful
Edson Wilrich in full scale development phase
Conventional heavy oil development and low exposure exploration very promising
Evolving commodity mix materially growing future funds flow
High impact value potential from long term resource plays
Elmworth Montney resource identified and scoping development scenarios
Material bitumen in place and contingent resource defined at Panny and Liege
Vast Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas fairway undergoing evaluation
Deleveraged for June 2012 convertible debenture repayment
75% of proforma debt has term beyond 2014 providing flexibility
Growing cash flow through diversification strategy will improve debt to cash flow ratios
Multiple ‘levers’ available to further manage balance sheet
Extremely limited exposure to further gas price weakness in 2012
Tremendous leverage to any gas price cycle recovery in 2013 and beyond
Every $0.50 per Mcf = $20 million of annual funds flow
Strategically setting in place the inter-locking pieces for a strong growth strategy
3200, 605 – 5 Avenue SW
Calgary, Alberta CANADA T2P 3H5
800.811.5522 TOLL FREE
403.269.4400 PHONE
403.269.4444 FAX
[email protected] EMAIL
www.perpetualenergyinc.com WEB
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
Susan L. Riddell Rose President & CEO Cameron R. Sebastian Vice President, Finance & CFO Claire Rosehill Business and Investor Relations Analyst