Permafrost carbon and its role in futurebcc.ncc-cma.net/upload/userfiles/WCRP4ISCS...

WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15

Permafrost carbon and its role in future carbon emissions

D CarlsonDirector, WCRP


Week CenturyDecadeSeason

Observations

Models

CMIP



Climate Grand Challenges


Permafrostcarbon


Climate Grand Challenges


Permafrost carbon feedback

Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.



Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.

Accumulated for 1000’s of

years

No decay while frozen



0-3 m



0-3 m

1,035 + 150 GtC!

Hugelius et al. 2013, ESSD



0-3 m

1,035 + 150 GtC!

(1,035 GtC = 485 ppm in atmosphere)

Hugelius et al. 2013, ESSD


Thermokarst lakes (TKL), Alaska

Permafrost land morphology


Alaska: Active Layer Detachment (ALD); Surface Erosion (GTK);

Retrogressive Thaw Slump (RTS)

Permafrost land morphology


Schuur et al. 2015 Nature


Schuur et al. 2015 Nature Drill

3 m


Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!

(1,035 GtC = 485 ppm in atmosphere)

• Where will this carbon go? • As CO2 or as CH4? • How much, how fast?



Schuur et al. 2015

Nature



Schuur et al. 2015

Nature

Dry & aerobic leads to

CO2



Schuur et al. 2015

Nature

Wet & anaerobic leads to CH4 & CO2

Dry & aerobic leads to

CO2


Schädel et al. 2016Nature Climate

Permafrost incubations

21 Studies

Compare 15oC to

5oC


Schädel et al. 2016Nature Climate

Permafrost incubations

21 Studies

Compare 15oC to

5oC

Increase by factor of 2


Lawrence et al. 2015Env. Res. Lett.

Model permafrost drying

NCAR Community Land Model, RCP 8.5


Model permafrost carbon loss

Lawrence et al. 2015Env. Res. Lett.

NCAR Community Land Model, RCP 8.5


Measure atmospheric CH4

Sweeney et al. 2016GRL

Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector

(July to December)




(July to December)

Slight winter increase?





(July to December)


???





(July to December)


???Increase by 6oC!



Permafrost carbon - best estimates



Permafrost carbon - best estimates


Approximately 100 GtC by 2100



• Where will this carbon go?

• As CO2 or as CH4?

• How much, how fast?






Biology -> atmosphere






Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean







If dry -> CO2







If dry -> CO2 If wet -> CH4 (?)








100 GtC by 2100, 370 GtCO2 by 2100 (8 decades)








100 GtC by 2100, 370 GtCO2 by 2100 (8 decades)estimate 46 GtCO2 per decade, or 140 GtCO2 by 2050

additional 18 (7 to 25) ppm by 2050.


CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary

Very preli

minary!

Conc

entra

tion C

O2, p

pm

Riahi et al. submittedGlobal Env. Change

400 ppm in 2016?

From AR5



Carbon from permafrost adds ~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …



If dry -> CO2Carbon from permafrost adds

~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …



If dry -> CO2

If 5% wet -> CH4

Carbon from permafrost adds ~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …


One of the urgent

questions on our planet


Climate challenges the human spirit


Huselius et al. 2013. TheNorthernCircumpolarSoilCarbonDatabase:spatially distributed datasets of soil coverage and soil carbon storage in the northern permafrost regions. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5, 3–13.

Lawrence et al. 2015. Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011

Schädel et al. 2106. Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3054

Schaefer et al. 2014. The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003

Schuur et al. 2015. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. doi:10.1038/nature14338

Sweeney et al. 2016. No significant increase in long-term CH4 emissions on North Slope of Alaska despite significant increase in air temperature. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069292

Papers referenced in this talk:

Permafrost carbon and its role in futurebcc.ncc-cma.net/upload/userfiles/WCRP4ISCS...

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