Annals of Library Science and Documentation 1985, 32(3-4), 83·92

PERIODICALS IN THE YEAR 2000 - A COST ANALYSISS. PICHURAMANS. GOP ALAKRISHNANMadras Institute of Tee/lnology LibraryAnna UniversityMadras 600044

Investigates the impact of hike in sub-scription. rates, fluctuation of foreign currenciesof periodicals and predicts the cost trend ofperiodicals on the basis of statistical techniqueat the end of this decade and the century.

INTRODUCTION

Information, a functional resource of thismodern age, is widely generated and consumedby technologists, a most basic raw material ofall, that can never be exhausted, becomingmore important than ever before, even reor-ganize the media of communication and makesthe present mass media both print and electro-nics wholly inadequate to cope with the com-munication. [1] Eruption of information explo-sion raises a doubt that no one can keep infor-mation up-to-date even in a narrow field.Lukasiewicz calls this phenomena as IGNO-RANCE EXPLOSION.[2,3] The rate of accele-ration of this technological change becomes aperennial problem of this information age.

It has been estimated that in 1980 the worldoutput of scientific and technical periodicalswas around 55,000 separate titles, [4] andthis number increases at a compound rate of2% to 4% every year.[5] In India nearly 13,403titles are received by 785 libraries including3,816 American publications, 2,071 titlesfrom United Kingdom and 1,892 Indian publi-cations. The remaining 5,624 titles are receivedfrom 79 different countries. "To illustrate, itmay be pointed out that as a single library,namely the British Library Lending Division isreceiving about 40,000 serials in Science andTechnology field whereas in India, all librariestaken together receive only 11,511 foreigntitles" [6]. It is apparent that our countryreceives only 27% of the total outcome of theworld and covers only 33% of British LibraryLending Division. Most strikingly the hike insubscription rates is the main reason besidesthe conventional factors, for the low acquisitionof periodicals by the Indian libraries. Further,subscribing to periodicals in future is also moredoubtful.

Vol 32 Nos 3-4 September-December 1985

OBJECfIVE

The purpose of this analysis is to assess thenature of changes in the subscription rates ofperiodicals during the years. More specificallythis study is an attempt to present as silhouettethe cost trend of the periodicals during the endof this decade and at the end of the century.

LIMITATIONS

1. Cost of primary periodicals alone taken upfor the study

2. 110 periodicals only taken up for the studyand the countrywise break up is as follows:

U.S.A .45U.K 45INDIA 20

3. Sample periodicals selected for study may besubject to huge increase in subscriptionrate or to a minimum

4. Annual subscription prices taken up for thestudy are paid by the M.LT. library

5. Names of the journals are deliberately with-held to prevent undue influencing

6. Because of the data limitations, the resultsreported must be viewed as representative.Information on more periodicals is requiredin order to evaluate the robustness of theseresults.

METHODOLOGY

Periodicals, an important segment uftechnical information, aptly quoted as SelectiveInformation Filter now-a-days become moreexpensive. The emerging cost turns out to bea turbulant one in the limited budget ot alibrary; and also nonpluses the librarians infinalising the budget every year. A case studywas built on two tiers; (i) trend based on coun-

83

PICHURAMAN & GOPALAKRISHNAN

try (ii) future trend on subscription rates, atthe end of the decade and during the end of thecentury.

COST TREND BASED ON COUNTRY

An analysis has been made on the subscrip-tion rates of various occident periodicals i.e.U.S.A. & U.K. as majority of the periodicalsreceived by the Indian libraries belong to thesecountries.

Average cost of periodicals originating fromthree countries viz. U.S.A., U.K. and India fromthe beginning of this decade to this date is

given in Table 1. Cost of limited number ofperiodicals from each of these countries asmentioned above, has been analvsed for thisstudy for the past six years, i.e., from the year1980 to 1985.

As can be observed from Table 1, subscrip-tion rates during the six year period underexamination took gradual turn, as time progress-ed, in foreign periodicals, whereas Indian perio-dicals maintain same position.

Table 2 provides the incremental subscrip-tion ratio calculated in the simplest manner forthe consecutive period. Further it gives avivid picture that the subscription rates have

Table 1

Subscription rates duringCountry

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

U.S.A. S 3352.52 3996.18 4596.57 5407.44 6147.74 7013.94

U.K. $ 1433.86 1580.36 1695.61 1952.86 2197.86 2482.86

£ 1194.90 1463.05 1651.60 1820.50 1984.00 2168.10

India Rs. 1431.00 1466.00 1471.00 1523.00 1523.00 1703.00----------------------------------------------------------

Table 2: Percentage of increase in subscription rates

Country Percentage of increase during the year Average % % of in-1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 of in- crease

crease in betweenevery year 80-85

U.S.A. 19.20 15.02 17.64 13.69 14.09 15.93 109.21

U.K. 15.78 9.98 12.73 10.83 11.22 12.11 76.93

India 2.45 0.34 3.54 11.82 3.63 19.01

Country 1980 1981

Table 3: Rate of increase in subscription

1982 1983 1985

U.K. 1.00 1.15

U.S.A. 1.00 1.19

B4

1984

1.27 1.44 1.771.59

1.37 1.61 1.83 2.09

Ann Lib Sci Doc

PERIODICALS IN 2000

Table 4: .Cost trend of u.s. periodicals----------------------------------------~----------------------------------------------------SUBSCRIPTIO~~RATES IN 7- OF

S. C. --------------------------------_._--------------------- INCREASES COST COSTNO. NO. 1980. 1981 1982 P183- 1984 1985 [lURING IN IN

1980.--85 1990 20.0.0.-------------------------------- . -- .•...-..-~....•- ....- , __ ' _______________________ ~ ___________ •. - ____ , __ , ___ •• 'M _ •••

1 A01 10.2.0.0. 122.0.0. ,134.0.0. .7:4 .oo 192.00 20.2.0.0. 98.0.4 312.23 50.9.(;.0.2 A02 24.0.0. 36.0.0. 50..0.0 50.¢O 60..0.0. 60..0.0. 150..0.0. 10.2.32 184.213 Ao.3 40..0.0. 46.0.0. 46.0.0 53.00. 58.0.0. 58.0.0. 45.0.0. 79.24 120.714 A0.4 45.0.0. 65.0.0 65.0.0. 75.0.0. 75.0.0 79.0.0. 75.56 112.0.9 170.635 AC5 24.0.0. 32.0.0. ~6.00 39.00. 65.0.0. 135.0.0 462.50. 194.69 374.8.1,6 A06 20..0.0 40..0.0. 50.0.0. 70..0.0. 75.0.0. 7~.o.C 275.0.0. 141.58 261.0.77 A07 59.0.0. 67.0.0 74.0.0 80..0.0. 88.0.0. 92.0.0. 55.93 127.50. 198.518 AC8 53.0.0. 78.0.0. 82.0.0. 95.00. 113.0.0. 113.0.0 113.21 177.93 293.549 A09 52.0.0. 66.0.0. 87.0.0 92.0.0. 10.3.00 129.0.0. 148.0.8 195.16 336.13

10. Alo. 53.0.0. 69.0.0. 78.0.0. 99.00. 127.0.0. 140..0.0. 164.15 228.82 405.7411 All 66.0.0. 76.0.0 88.0.0. 110..0.0. 118.0.0. 140.00 112.12 211.0.5 361.3312 A12 79.0.0. 99.0.0. 10.8.0.0. 119.0.0. 130..0.0. 152.0.0. 92.41 215.21 350..50.13 A13 77.0.0. 86.0.0. 88.CQ 10.0.,0.0. 10.8.0.0. 120..0.0. 55.84 159.96 247.7514 A14 79.0.0. 10.1.0.0. 116.0.0 134.0.0. 159.0.0. 175.0.0. 121.52 269.96 453.7315 A15 38.0.0. 44.0.0. 50..0.0. 58.0.0. 68.0.0. 72.0.0. 89.47 110..0.5 190..3516 A16 40..0.0. 51.0.0. 56.0.0. 65.0.0. 77.0.0. 61.0.0. 52.50. 99.81 156.6':17 A17 53.0.0. 65.0.0. 75.0.0. 85.0.0. 10.0..0.0. 150.,0.0. 183.0.2 215.0.6 377 .4518 A18 28.0.0. 28.0.0. 28.0.0. 28.0.0. 70..0.0. 70..0.0. t5C.CC 114.87 216,1119 A19 40..0.0. 40..0.0. 55.0.0. 55.0.0. 65.0.0 65.0.0. 62.50. 96.77 157.3920 A20 91.00 10.8.0.0. 119.00 154.00. 172.00 182.00 100.00 282.04 466.3021 A21 46.0.0 54.0.0. 61.00 81.00 89.0.0 94.00 104.35 150..10 260.7022 A22 102.0.0 132.0.0 160..00. 180.00 252.00 384.0.0. 276.47 579.96 1059.7523 A23 80..0.0 110.0.0. 158.00 180.0.0 180.0.0 195.0.0 143.75 326.71 576.9524 A24 22.0.0 22.00 35.0.0 35.0.0 35.00. 35.00. 59.09 55.85 102.9825 A25 36.00 36iOO 90..00. 90.00 90.0.0 90.0.0 150.0.0 .163.57 280.9726 A26 46.00. 54.G() 64.00. 81.00 89.00 94.00 104.35 149.09 253.6227 A27 64.00. 69.00 71.0.0 81.0.0 98.00 98.0.0 53.12 137.75 216.2728 A28 30.0.0 32.00 36.00 48.00. 54.00 60.00 100.00 92.37 158.5729 A29 70.00 80..0.0 98.00 120.00 120.00. 140.0.0. 100.00 209.12 343.8230 A30 30..00. 30.0.0 30..00 40.00 52.80 53.00. 76.67 81.79 143.3231 A3l 14.95 14.98 20.00 22.47 22.47 22.47 50.30 33.53 54 .8~)32 A32 8.60 8.60 8.bO 1",00 14.00 14.00 62.79 21.81 36.2833 A33 60.00 86.00 140.00 17.? j. ('0 224.00 265.00. 341.67 469.59 859.1634 A34 22.00 27.00 2".7 (.00 -, ::":(, 33.00 33.00 50.00 48.66 98.63.{;. .I

35 A35 78.0.0 86.00 98.00 10t.\,CO 111\.00 140.00 79.49 188.9t. 298.6936 A36 30.0.0. 30.00 30.00 51).00 50.00 50.00 LL l ...• 79.34 135.37\,..'U+ l,.,'!

37 (.137 16.97 17.60 19.97 23. Sl7 23.97 23.97 41.25 34.05 1:"7 !l'-'w+' \..'

38 A38 40.00. 40.00 49.0.0 67.00 75.50. 8lf.50 "'17 -,C' 138.74 238.1 r,.'.l~w.1 ,J.

39 A39 330.00 385.00. 385.00 511.00 5]7.00 660..00 100.0.0 971.13 15S'7.~i,~40. MO 407.00 490.00 511.00. 583.00. 6::i4.00 755.00 85.50 1059.97 1}15.7741 Ml 418.00. 484.00 550.00 621.00 693.00 795.00 90.19 1145.92 187:1.4342 A42 264.00 313.0.0 363.00. 412.00 462.00 50.5.00 91.29 754.23 1259.6143 A43 35.0.0 35.00 45.00 50.00. 50.00. 50.00. 42.86 77.13 149.9344 A44 19.00 21.00. 24.00 24.00 24.00 24.00 zc. 32 30.78 45.4845 A45 20..00 20.0.0 4B.00 48.00 48.00 74.00 :-:0.00 117.72 212.04------_._----------------------------------------------------------------------.------ .. --

3352.52 3996.18 4596.57 ~407,44 t,147.74 7013.94 11'tQ ')1 10564.24 17862 .L-~_ •••• " to .••.• .A-----------------------------------------------------------------_ ... _-----------_ .. _-----------------_._--Vol 32 Nos 3-4 September-December 1985 85

PICHURAMAN & GOPALAKRISHNAN

Table 5: Cost trend of U.K. periodicals•_______________________________ •••• ___ •••. _ ••••.•a;; •••. ~ - ~-~~----------~--~~~~-----------------------~--SUBSCRIPTION RATES IN 7- OF

S. C. ---------------------------------~-------------------- INCREASES COST COSTNO. NO. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 DURING IN IN

1980-85 1990 2000----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 LOl 19.75 23.7'i 26.35 28.00 29.75 31.85 61.27 43.45 64.54,., LC2 28.00 40.00 45.00 4'5.00 49.50 49.50 76.79 71.74 109.20.•..:3 L03 -l 37.95 37.95 37.95 37.95 47.95 47.95 26.35 58.62 82.634 L04 24.00 24.00 35.00 38.00 40.00 40.00 66.67 61.39 97.765 !...05 $ 40.00 50.00 56.25 75.00 100.00 105.00 162.50 175.47 308.276 L06 L70 4.00 4.00 8.00 13.00 13.00 664.71 27.45 60.967 L07 5>47.50 47.50 47.50 55.00 60.00 65.00 36.84 82.09 119.60S L08 45.00 53.00 58.00 64.00 69.00 73.00 62.22 101.67 155.689 L09 108.00 12t .• 00 140.00 160.00 173.00 183.00 69.44 261.89 407.20

10 L10 20.00 25.00 28,00 32.00 35.00 38.00 90.00 57.68 101.7Y-11 L11 30.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 40.00 33.33 48.11 64.7512 L12 ~ 264 .00 300.00 330.00 360.00 360.06 380.00 43.94 498.87 708.0813 L13 82.00 95.0Q 100.00 100.00 100.00 109.00 32.93 132.00 187.9914 L14 162.00 210.00 240.00 270.00 290.00 312.00 92.59 462.81 735.6515 U5 27.00 40.00 43.00 48.00 52.00 60.00 122.22 91.96 167.711 • L1b 72.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 100.00 115.00 59.72 153.83 234.81~O1"' L17 50.00 60.00 67.00 75.00 75.00 95.00 90.00 129.93 209.48.1

18 U8 25.60 32.00 39.00 45.00 49.00 57.00 122.66 87.37 149.961-9 L19 40.00 48.00 49.50 60.00 70.00 75.00 87.50 110.85 181.9820 L20 $13.94 13. ~'4 15.94 15.94 15.94 15.94 14.35 19.58 29.4021 L2! '-l> 14.97 15.97 17.97 27.97 27.97 27.97 86.84 45.63 75.62'1~ L')r; 10.60 11.80 13.00 13.00 13.00 14.00 32.08 17.30 25.096..••. L.L

'.!.-;I L23 '~45.00 50.00 65.00 80.00 90.00 90.00 100.00 145.89 241.24c ,:

14 L24 31).00 30.00 39.50 42.00 45.50 45.50 51.67 66.64 107.4525 L25 27.00 33.00 35.00 39.00 57.00 64.00 137.04 97.98 169.8926 L26 27.50 37.50 43.50 50.00 55.00 55.00 100:00 87.06 144.4527 L27 $187.00 210.00 240.00 275.00 275.00 300.00 60.43 415.96 629.7028 L28 'l::;.OO 50.00 60,00 t.5.00 75.00 82.00 82.22 121.44 208.0529 L29 12.00 1'5.00 15.0G 17.00 19.00 19.00 58.33 27.62 47.35::W UO 22.(10 2:5.00 30.01;) 35.00 35.00 40.00 81.82 57.74 92.1931 L31 2~\, CO 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 55.00 120.00 80.89 13.6.2432 l -r-;. 39. (i() :,8.00 65.')0 74.00 83.00 99.00 153.85 151.24 256.66~~L.

33 ' ~"1' '\> 99,,00 110.00 110.00 120.00 120,00 135.00 36.36 163.37 229.59L~~'

34 L34 l' 225.00 225 •.00 225.00 28\1.00 425.00 600.00 166,67 863.50 1534.52'Ie- L35 23.00 39.00 45,00 51.00 54.00 57.00 147.83 100.19 211.32-''''::It, L36 •.\ ',t:' 12.1)/) 13.25 14.00 14,75 ")C" .,r 158.97 34.51 66.04': •.I ,) Lvt~~1

37 L37 8.50 8i50 8,50 97 ()O 11.00 11.50 35.29 14.76 23.30,Q DB '\>130.00 130.00 130.00 ltJ'J + 00 160.00 170.00 30.77 214.15 299.03w •..•

39 L39 36.I')(i ,~O.OO 50.00 50.00 55.00 55.00 52.78 78.26 121.8040 L40 $ 37.50 60.00 60. \./0 66.{';C 66.00 66.00 76.00 94.88 142.1341 L41 >~292 .00 33('.00 360.00 400,(1(i 450.00 480.00 64.38 668.06 1024.4242 L42 70.00 8:i.00 85.00 9'?50 115.00 125.00 78.57 181.17 309.17·~3 L43 7.50 10. so 12.1)0 12.00 13.50 13.50 80.00 21.39 41.76

·44 L44 67.00 79.00 9~;',JJO 99.00 110.00 116.00 73.13 166.43 256.98_ •• ___ • ____ ••., _______ . __________ •. _ w.· __________ ~ _________ ~____ .~ ____________________ - _____________

2628.76 3043.41 3347,21 377?, ~36 4181.86 4650.96 76.93 6592.79 10571.46-,-_. -'_ ... _-_._--_._- .-...---- .,-- .•...~....... -~--... _ ........... _ .._ .... .,--'._._ ..,-_ ..-._--_ ..... _---,-, .•.. ,-----------------------------_ ..-

"Tuio separate [ournals continued as single title from the year 1984 onwards

86 Ann Lib Sci Doc

PERIODICALS IN 2000

gone up by a minimum of 12% every year.In the years since 1980 the percentage of

subscription of the two major countries U.S.A.and U.K. that are selected. for study has increas-ed to 109.21% and 76.93% respectively.

TREND IN U.S. PERIODICALS

Cost of 45 periodicals taken up for studyfor the past six years i.e. from 1980-85 is givenin Table 4. This. table also provides the percen-tage of increase in subscription rates for indi-vidual periodicals during these years and itranged from 26% to 462%. Average percentageof increase over two consecutive years, as shownin Table 2 is 16%. It is evident from Table 3 thatthe cost of U.S. periodicals doubles in five years.

TREND IN U.K. PERIODICALS

As shown above the cost trend of UKperiodicals has also been analysed for thesame. period (Table 5) and the results are givenbelow:

Percentage range of increaseduring the period 1980-85

14.35% to664.71% .

Average percentage ofincrease over two con-secutive years (Table 2) 12%

The cost of UK periodicals doubles approxi-mately once in seven years.

TREND ON TRANSLATION PERIODICALS

More than 63% of world scientific informa-tion is locked up in non-english journals. [7]Information presented in these journals alsois useful for science and technology and thecost of these journals seems to be very high.There is a wide variation in subscription ratesof these periodicals - nearly 14% increase insubscription rates every year. Subscriptionrates, already high, continue to rise everyyear.

Table 6: Cost trend of Indian periodicals.--.--.-~.-.,-,---.--.-.---------.----------.--------~--------------------~-------------------------------.SUBSCRIPTICN F:ATES IN x OF

S. C. ---~ •. - _ •• _.p .. _----- - •. ---.-.- •• _. ---.----. -----------_._-----._- -- -- .•--.- INCREASES COST COST(-10. NO. 1980 1S'81 1982 1?83 1984 1985 !lURING IN IN

1980-85 1990 2000-"'--'---' .•.. _._._.,

__•.__ ..__ .__ .__._.____ .___ • _____________ ._M.___...__________________________________________________

• 10: 25.00 25.00 25.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 60.00 60.92 96.45.I.

~ 102 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00. 15.00 0.00 15.47 18.27•." 103 30.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 45.00 50.00 51.66 71.t.2oj

4 104 <J6.00 96.00 96.00 96.00 96.00 96.00 0.00 96.26 97.84-5 IOS 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 0.00 40.02 40.1::.;6 106 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 35.00 40.00 37.19 50.367 I07 1:.0.00 12/).00 1.20.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 0.00 120.17 121.21Q IOE 100.00 100.60 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 0.00 100.01 100.10~.s· loJ9 120,00 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 180.00 50.00 193.16 272.11

10 110 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 120.00 33.33 127.62 173.32ii III 1/),:)0 10.0(1 10.CO 10.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 10.60 14.2112 112 100.01) 100,00 100.00 lOO.Of) 100.00 100.00 0.00 100.05 100.3313 113 1;,0.00 90.00 90.00 100,00 100.00 120.00 100.00 164.92 254.4114 114 60.00 t..O.OO 60.00 60.00 60.00 100.00 66.67 109.95 169.6515 115 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 0.00 40.79 45.501 ' 'To! ' 160.00 160.00 1-60.00 1M. (10 160.00 160.00 0.00 160.06 160.43.0 ;'10

17 T·' ..,. 25 .oo 0':; ,~i''l.1 25.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 6B.00 65~72 106.01.1. .• 1 .•.••~. \,·u

,r. 118 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 0.00 200.53 203.71.lO

19 119 90.00 90.c·O 9;').00 90.00 90.00 100.00 11.11 102.23 115.6420 !20 25.00 25.00 30.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 60.00 60.88 96.15------------------------------------------_._-----------------------------_._---------

1431.00 1466.00 1471 __00 1523.00 1523.00 1703.00 19.01 1858.21 2307.47------------------.----,~.----.-.-.--.-.-------------------------_._---------------------------_ .._---------.-- ...

Vol 32 Nos 3-4 September-December 1985 87

PICHURAMAN & GOPJ\LAKRISHNAN

Table 7: Subscription rates of trooslation periodicals

(in Rupees)

Subscription rates during %of %ofincrease increasebetween between

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1980-85 1984-85

335 385 511 577 660 100.00 14.38490 511 583 654 755 85.50 15.44484 S50 621 693 795 90.19 14.72313 363 412 462 505 91.29 9.31

-----Average 53.85

-----4

S.No.

1980

1

2

3

4

330407418264

FUTURE TR.END

----------------------------- -----------------------------= 13.46

Predicting the cost of periodicals is impor-tant not only for meeting the cost but in formu-lating methods in acquiring more informationwithout duplication within a budget limitation.Keeping this in view, cost of the periodicalsat the end of the decade and for the year 2000has been predicted.

METHODOLOGY

Numerous techniques have been developedby the statisticians in analysing the trend of thefuture. Algebraic method, based on the principleof least square provides an equation of the trendwhich may be a straight line, parabola or expo-nential curve, or a general curve and the trendline can be fitted accordingly.

Normally, cost factor always, lies in theorder of increasing function. Taking this factorinto account "Straight line .trend method" hasbeen adopted in order to -find -oar the cost ofperiodicals at the end of:!Ue deca,d'eand for theyear 2000. ....

Straight line trend method has an equation ofthe type Y = a + bx where Y represents theestimated values of the trend, x represents thedeviation in some convenient period. The con-

88

stant 'a' refers to the Y intercept, i.e. it is thedistance between the origin and the point, wherethe trend line cuts the Y axis. The constant'b' refers to the slope of the line which indicatesthe change in Y for each unit change in X.

The two unknown constants "a' and 'b'in· the equation are obtained by solving twonormal equations.

Na + b~X

a~X + b~X2

Example

~Y

= ~XY

Cost ofthejoumal AOI for the year 1990 & 2000

x y X X2 XYX-A

-2 4 -204-1 1 -1220 0 01 1 1742 4 3843 9 606

---- -----3 19 838

-----

Ann Lib Sci Doc

1980 1021981 1221982 1341983 1741984 1921985 202

----946

PERIODICALS IN 2000

N = 6 ~X = 3 ~X2 = 19 £XY = 838~Y = 946

Na + bl:X =,£Y 6a + 3b = 946 (1)a~+b~X2=~XY 3a+19b=838 (2)

By solving the equation(1)&(2)

a = 146.20

b = 20.8

Hence the equation of trend line is

Y = 146.2 + 20.8 X

In this equation, the year for which the trendvalue is to be calculated, may be substituted forX. In this study the value of X is 1990 and2000. Since the arbitatory year has beenassumed for easy computation, the value of Xin this study is 1990-1982 = 8 and 2000-1982 =18 (A=Arbitatory year = 1982).

Hence the value for the year 1990 is

Y = 146.2 + 20.8 x 8

::: 146.2 + 166.4 = 312.6

and the value for the year 2000 is

Y = 146.2 + 20.8 x 18146.2 + 374.4 = 520.6

In order to obtain accuracy and for easycomputation the data are fed into PDP 11S60computer installed in this institute using thecomputer program (Annexure I). The cost ofthe periodicals thus predicted for the year1990 and 2000 has been tabulated (Table 4,5and 6) for the respective countries.

Merits

1. It is a scientific method and does nothave different results.

2. Since it is based on the algebraic method. of calculating the trend, it is free frombias; i.e. subjectivity does not enterinto it.

3. Because the trend values are expectedgenerally by straight line it can beextended without much difficulty andthe forecasted values are reasonablytrustworthy.

4. The trend values for all the items -even the intermediate ones or thefuture ones - can be obtained.

Demerits

1. Any estimate by this method is based ontrend values and does not take intoconsideration seasonal and other varia-tions.

2. It is a tedious method and involves morecalculations. [8 ]

FLUCTUATION IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES

Volatile nature of the foreign currenciesin the international market plays a substantialrole in budgeting of libraries .. Hence conver-sion rates of foreign currencies at the time ofremittance of subscription every year has beengiven (Table 8).

In order to estimate actual increase 111

subscription rates of foreign periodicals in

----------------------------------------------------------Table 8: Conversion rates of foreign currencies

Conversion rates during(in Rupees) % of increase!

decrease1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

8.50 8.20 9.60 10.10 10.50 12.80 + 56.10

18.40 19.00 18.10 16.90 16.30 15.30 - 19.47

Currency

£

Vol 32 Nos 3-4 Scp tcmber-Dcccmbcr 19i1c; 89

PICHURAMAN & GOP ALAKRISHNAN

---------------------------------------------------------------Table 9

s. C Subscription rates in %of Cost in Cost inNo. No. increases 1990 2000

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 during1980-85

USA 28496.42 32768.68 44127.08 54615.14 64551.27, 89778.43 215.05 139178.11 247663.86

2 UK 34173.97 40756.90 46171.82 50490.34 55416.73 64952.54 90.06 92654.32 154427.09

3 INDIA 1431.00 1466.00 1471.00 1523.00 1523.00 1703.00 19.01 2665.56 7958.94

TOTAL 64101.39 74991.58 91769.90 106628.48 121491.00 156433.97 144.04 234498.00 410049.91

Indian currency, the rates mentioned in Table 3have been converted into Indian currency byrespective conversion rate prevalent during theperiod (Table 9).

According to Indian currency the rates ofu.s. periodicals has risen to 215% during the year1980-85 and U.K. periodicals to 90% in spiteof decrease in conversion rates. Average yearlyconsumption rises by 26% in U.S. periodicalsand 10% in V.K. periodicals. Total percentageof increase of these two countries during theyear 1980-85 is 147% and yearly consumptionis 18%. Within a span of one year i.e. 1984-85, the percentage of increase rises to 29%.In other words every library has to. set apartnearly 30% of previous year's subscriptionamount, in their budget every year to meetthe subscription increases, fluctuations inforeign currencies.

COST OF THE PERIODICALS IN THE YEAR2000

"will there be periodicals in the year 2000?I f so, will there be printed form as we havetoday?" are the questions raised by specialistsin libraries. But the study has been extendedto 2000 with the presumption that the periodi-cals will be certainly around for atleast thenext several decades. Accordinr;ly the cost ofthe periodicals in the year 2000 will be 160%more than the subscription rates during theyear 1985. In other words the libraries willhavc to pay, in the ycar 2000, a subscriptionwhich will bc around 3 times more than thesubscription in the year 1985.

1)0

CONCLUSION

Rapid increase in subscription rates, alreadykeeps the periodicals beyond the financialmeans elf the individual subscriber. Budgetaryausterity in libraries has already created aprivation and also often plagued the librarian.Library budget is pruned often due to shortageof funds. Inadequate attention is usually paidto the needs of the libraries. At this stagethere raises the doubt can libraries subscribeperiodicals in future? [9J.

As a suggestive measure in order to save oncost, the libraries in the same region have totake care to rationalize the periodicals sub-scribed. Librarians may discuss, examine andfind out ways and means.

1 to avoid duplication within the sameregion

2. to communicate contents pages ofimportant periodicals among librariesand

3. to loan to other libraries the periodicals,of their interest.

Further, days are not far though not innear future, for the replacement of this conven-tional printed media. Probable replacement ofthis media would be microfiche form whichfinds intrusion already in primary communica-ting media. Most of the periodicals as mention-eu, are now made available in microfiche format the same cost as that of printed media. Asa sUbocstive measure the libraries can acquiremicrofic he form. It reeluires on Iy initial invest-

Ann Lib Sci Doc

PERIODICALS IN 2000

ment, which solves some of the problems likespace, binding cost, furniture cost, maintenancecost, all of which naturally form more than20% of the library budget every year. Thisamount can be earmarked to meet the increasein subscription of the periodicals. The sugges-ted measure can meet ever rising subscriptionrates in a limited budget without creatingchaotic conditions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The authors are grateful to Dr. S. Sathikh,Director, M.LT. for encouragement in writingthis paper and permitting the publication ofthis paper. Thanks are also due to Mr. Nata-rajan, Computer Centre of this institute forhis assistance in computerising the data.

REFERENCES1. Toffler, Alvin: Third Wave, N.Y.: Bantam Books,

1981.

2. Lukasiewicz, T : The ignorance explosion, Trans.New York Acad. Sci., New York, 1972 In Roy,R. et al:·Hybridized journal - text book: an inven-tion to serve future applied science teaching, Euro-pian Journal of Engineering Education 1983,8(3).

3. Roy, R et al: Hybridized journal - text book; aninvention to serve future applied science teaching.Europian Journal of Engineering Education 1983,8(3).

4. Bonn, George S : Literature of science and tech-nology, I~ McGraw-Hill Encyclopaedia of Scienceand Technology, 1982, p 77S.

S. Lancaster, F W : "Whither libraries? or WhithorLibraries", College and Research Libraries 1978,39{S).

6. Union Catalogue of Current Serials in Science andTechnology 1981, Delhi: Insdoc.

I

7. Sikka, Pawan: Translation of R&D Communication,science and engineering 1979, pp 47-49.

8. Sancheti, D C and Kapoor, V K : Statistics theory:methods and applications, New Delhi, Sultan Chand& Sons.

9. Pichuraman, S and Gopalakrishnan, S : Can librariessubscribe periodicals in future? Paper presented atthe workshop on handling journal subscription andbinding in. technical libraries and in~prmation,centres held at NAL, Bangalore.

PROGRAMME

ANNEXURE-I

DIMEN"SION X(6) ,Y(6) ,CODE(3) ,S(6)OPEN(UNIT=2,TYPE='NEW',NAME='US.OUT')OPEN(UNIT=l,T~PE='OLD',NAME='US.DAT')WRITE(2,30)WF:ITE(2,44)WRITE(2,31>WRITEe2,44)L=lREA[I(l,*)NREADC1,*) (X(I),I=l,N)

100 READ(1,10,END=200) eCODE(I),I~1,3)REA[I(1,*,END=200) (YCI),I=l,N)DO 15 J=l,NS(J)=seJ)+YeJ)

15 CONTINUESUMX:;::OSU~1Y=()SUMXY::O!;UMX2:c:ON2:: .:iH 1 ) /2

Vol 32 Nos 3-4 September-December 1985 91

PICHURAMAN & GOPALAKRISHNAN

[10 20 K=l,NYK=Y(K)x K:: X ( K ) - X (N2 )SUMX::::SUMX+XKSUMY=SUMY+YKSUMXY=SUMXY+XK*YKSUMX2=SUMX2+XK*XK

20 CONTINUEA=(SUMY-B*SUMX)/NB=(SUMXY-A*SUMX)/SUMX2X3=AtB*8Y3:::A+B*18SX3=SX3+X3SY3=SY3+Y3P::Y(6)--Y(l)PEF;:=(P/Y(l))*100WRITE(2,40) L,(CODE(I),I=1,3),(Y(J),J=1,N),PER,X3,Y3L=LtlGO TO 100

200 Q=S(N)-S(l)QER=(Q/S(1»*100.WRITE(2,42)WRITE(2,43) (S(I),I=1,N),GER,SX3,SY3WRITE(2,44)CLOSE(UNIT=1)CLO'SE (UN IT=2 )

10 FORMAT(3A1)40 FORMAT(1X,I3,2X,3A1,2X,9F9.2)42 FORMAT(11X,'---------------------------------------1---------------------------------------------')44 FORMAT(1X,'--------------------------------------------------1--------------------------------------------')43 FORMAT(11X,9F9.2)30 FORMAT(32X,'COST TREND OF U.S. PERIODICALS')31 FORMAT(27X,'SUBSCRIPTION RATES IN',19X,'~ OF',/,2X,'S.',2X,'C.'

13X,'------------------------------------------------------',2X,2'INCREASES',2X,'COST',5X,'COST',/,2X,'NO.',1X,'NO.',7X,'1980',5X,3'1981',5X,'1982',5X,'1983',5X,'1984',5X,'1985',3X,'DURING',5X,4'IN',7X,'IN',/,67X,'1980-85',4X,'1990',5X,'2000')

STOPEN[I

92 Ann Lib Sci Doc