Performance of Organic Farming Systems and Implications on ... · •#1 for total organic livestock...
Transcript of Performance of Organic Farming Systems and Implications on ... · •#1 for total organic livestock...
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Performance of Organic Farming Systems and Implications on Climate Change
Erin Silva, University of Wisconsin
March 5, 2013
http://www.extension.org/organic_production
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Erin Silva, University of Wisconsin
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Performance of Organic Farming Systems and Implications on Climate
Change
Erin Silva and Janet Hedtcke
UW-Madison, CIAS and Agronomy Dept.
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The Wisconsin Integrated Cropping Systems Trial
Feb 22, 2013 4Organic Farming Conference, La Crosse, WI
Arlington site
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Wisconsin’s organics tops the national ranks
• #1 for total organic livestock
• # 1 for field crop acreage
• #1 for total organic milk cows (22% of USA total)
• #2 in organic milk sales (64% of organic sales)
• #2 in organic farms (n=1159 farms)
• # 10 in vegetables
• Organic dairy and livestock farms drive market for organic feed
Source: UW-Madison CIAS/DATCP 2012 status report
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WICST was born in 1989
Two locations:
• Arlington (well drained silt loam soils)
• Lakeland (more-poorly drained silt loam soils)
Over 20 years of data summarized:
• from 1992 to 2012
•Trends emerging•Economics
•Soil carbon
•Yield trends
•Weed seed
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WICST: Lakeland site
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Cash-grain systems
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Continuous corn Strip-till corn-soybean Organic grain
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Dairy (forage-based) systems
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Conventional Alfalfa Organic forage Managed grazing
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Effect of weed pressure on corn yield
Wet Springs(May + June >10” rain)
Normal Springs
ARS LAC ARS LAC|--------------------------bu/a-------------------------------|
Conventional (min-tillcorn-soybean)
160 137 173 132
Organic(3-yr grain) 115 103 167 124
Org:conv 72% 76% 96% 94%
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Effect of weed pressure on soybean yields
Wet Springs(May + June > 10” rain)
Normal Springs
ARS LAC ARS LAC|--------------------------bu/a---------------------------|
Conventional (min-till corn-soybean)
48 57 57 53
Organic(3-yr grain) 38 44 54 49
Org:conv 79% 76% 95% 92%10eOrganic Webinar
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30’ rotary hoe or tine weedercan do ~ 30 acres/hr
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Corn yields in extreme weather yrs
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2008 (flood) 2012 (drought)
Bu
/acr
e
cont. corn
strip-till corn-sb
conv. dairy
organic grain
organic dairy
aa
b
a
b
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x
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Rodale
• Corn in the legume-based (left) and conventional (right) plots six weeks after planting during the
• 1995 drought. The conventional corn
• is showing signs of water stress.
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• Rodale -Organic corn yields were 31% higher than conventional in years of drought
• Or
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Organic
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Conventional vs. Organic Corn Yield Trends
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50
100
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Yie
ld,
bu
/a
Cycle
Conventional Corn
Organic Corn-in 3-yr grain system
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Conventional vs. Organic Corn Yield Trends
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Yie
ld,
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Conventional Corn
Organic Corn- in 3-yr forage system
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Conventional vs. Organic Soybeans
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1 2 3 4
Yie
ld,
bu
/a
Cycle
ConventionalOrganic
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Conventional vs. Organic Alfalfa
0.0
1.0
2.0
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5.0
6.0
1 2
Yie
ld,
t d
m/a
Cycle
Conventional
Organic
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Base Gross Margins (GM)
• GM = Crop revenue – variable costs
• Grain priced at harvest; hay priced in winter
• Gov’t payments included
• Feed-grade organic premiums included
• Systems scaled up to farm size– 1200 acres for conventional grain farms
– 600 acres for organic grain farm
– 150 acres of conventional and organic forage farms
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Historic GM of grain systems
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50
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150
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250
300
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400
450
Conv. min-tillcorn-sb
Organic grain(c-sb-w)
Conv. min-tillcorn-sb
Organic grain(c-sb-w)
ARL (1992-2009) LAC (1992-2002)
$/a
cre
Org premium
Gov't payment
Base GM
a
b
x
y
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Historic GM of forage systems
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Convent.Forage
Organicforage
Convent.Forage
Organicforage
ARL (1992-2009) LAC (1992-2000)
$/a
cre
Org premium
Gov't payment
Base GM
a
by
x
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Corn and soybean feed-price trends (at harvest)
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96
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98
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00
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$/b
u
organic soy
conv. soy
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0
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19
96
19
98
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00
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$/b
u
organic corn
conv. corn
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Fertilizer cost in corn phase at ARL ($/acre)
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$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
conventional (c-sb)
organic (c-sb-w)
PEPs corn grain
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Corn seeding cost at ARL ($/acre)
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20
40
60
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120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$/a
cre conv
organic
PEPs, grain
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reseeded
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Soybean seeding cost at ARL ($/acre)
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$/a
cre
conv
organic
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Total expense in grain systems (ARL)
0
50
100
150
200
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350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$/a
cre
conv. grain
organic grain
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27
0
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$/a
cre
conv. forage
organic dairy
Total expense in forage systems (ARL)
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Gross margins in 2000 decade-ARL
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2002-2006 2007-2011
$/a
cre
Era
cont corn
strip-till corn
conv. dairy
organic grain
organic dairy
Era (E): p<0.0078System (S): p<0.0001E*S: p<0.0001
28
deef
ff f
a
b
c cd
de
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Soil Organic C changes over 20 yrs-ARL
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
cont corn no-till c-sb org c-sb-w conv alfalfa org alfalfa pasture
Ton
s C
/a in
3 f
tp
rofi
le
a
b b
b
b
c
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Soil C inputs on WICST
ARL (‘92-’09) LAC (‘92-’02)
System lbs C/acre-1
Cont. corn 5390 3301
Min-till corn-sb 4081 3324
Org grain (c-sb-w) 3038 2297
Conv. Forage 6075 6353
Organic Forage 6377 7145
Pasture with managed grazing
5380 5548
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RUSLE2 Soil loss estimates† (18-yr avg, ARL)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
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cont corn no-till c-sb org c-sb-w conv alfalfa org alfalfa pasture
Ton
s/ac
re
† assuming 4% slope, 150 ft run, contours
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N2O emissions/unit of N harvested-ARL
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C and N changes in other Long-Term Studies
• LTAR (Iowa) - Total nitrogen increased by 33 percent in the organic plots
– higher concentrations of carbon, potassium, phosphorous, magnesium and calcium
– results suggest that organic farming can foster greater efficiency in nutrient use and higher potential for sequestrating carbon
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• Rodale FST - in both organic and conventional systems, the highest overall GHG emissions were caused by soil processes fueled by nitrogen fertilizer, compost, and crop residues
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Rodale FST
• Organic system uses 45% less energy –mainly from not allowing conventional fertilizers
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• Demand for non-renewable energy resources of the farming systems in the DOC experiment (1985–1998) per hectare and year (columns) and per kg dry matter (DM, line)(Nemecek et al., 2011)
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LTRAS (California)
37http://asi.ucdavis.edu/programs/rr/research/carbon-sequestration-and-soil-organic-carbon
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Conclusions
• Yields: Org:Conv >90% when weeds controlled
• Organic yields better than continuous GM corn in extreme weather years
• Organic yields similar to rotated GM corn in extreme weather years
• Yield trends– Corn increased at 2.5 bu/a/yr (same for organic and conventional)
– Soybeans had slight gain at 0.2 bu/a/yr (same for organic and conventional)
– Alfalfa –no real trend yet
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Conclusion (cont’d)
• Profitability: organic >conventional– Gross margin higher in last 5 yrs. vs. previous 5 yr
– Large part of the profitability is coming from strong and steady premiums (in this study feed premiums)
– Inputs (seed, fuel, and nutrients) are driving up expenses, often near to the cost of conventional inputs
• Ecosystem Services– All systems losing carbon other than pasture
– Expand rotation with alfalfa can reduce soil loss
– GHG lower under rotations but not necessary due to organic management
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