Performance in the Real Sector...3 1. Performance in the Real Sector a) GDP Performance Figure 1:...
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Transcript of Performance in the Real Sector...3 1. Performance in the Real Sector a) GDP Performance Figure 1:...
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Table of Contents 1. Performance in the Real Sector ............................................................................. 3
2. International Markets .............................................................................................. 9
3. Money Market ........................................................................................................ 15
4. Fiscal Performance ............................................................................................... 19
5. Capital Markets ..................................................................................................... 24
6. Risk-related Factors ............................................................................................. 29
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1. Performance in the Real Sector
a) GDP Performance Figure 1: GDP growth, inflation and stock market performance
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; GDP figure for June 2020 from the World Economic Outlook, April 2020 Figure 2: Economic performance of selected advanced and emerging markets
Data Source: Country statistical offices; https://tradingeconomics.com/ Figures January-December 2020 from the World Economic Outlook, June 2020
5.6 5.6 5.1
5.4 4.9
-0.3 1,650.00
1,800.00
1,950.00
2,100.00
2,250.00
2,400.00
2,550.00
2,700.00
2,850.00
3,000.00
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Infl
atio
n a
nd
Qu
arte
rly
GD
P (
%)
Quarterly GDP Growth (%) Inflation (%) NSE20 Index
Ken
ya
Ken
ya
Ken
ya
Ken
ya
Ken
ya
Ken
ya
-13.00-12.00-11.00-10.00
-9.00-8.00-7.00-6.00-5.00-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020 June-Dec 2020
Year
-On
-Yea
r G
DP
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
)
Kenya USA UK Japan China France Mexico Brazil S. Africa
4
Figure 3: Cement production and consumption (‘000 MT) and index of value of building plans
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Figure 4: Kenya Housing and Property Indices
Hass Composite Property Sales Index: Year 2000 = 100; KBA Housing Price Index (fixed base): Q1 – 2013 = 100. Data Source: Hass Property Index (http://hassconsult.co.ke/real-estate/hass-index/ ) Kenya Bankers Association (https://www.kba.co.ke/house_price.php)
100
152
204
256
308
360
412
464
516
568
445
460
475
490
505
520
535
550
565
580
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
Ind
ex o
f V
alu
e o
f B
uild
ing
Pla
ns)
Cem
ent
Pro
du
ctio
n &
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
'00
0 M
T)
Cement Production (000' MT) Cement Consumption ('000 MT)
Index of Value of Building Plans (Dec 1972=100)
105
110
115
120
125
130
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
KB
A H
ou
sin
g P
rice
Ind
ex
Has
s C
om
po
site
Ind
ex
Hass Composite Property Sales Index Hass Composite Property Rental Index
KBA Housing Price Index (Fixed Base) KBA Housing Price Index (Moving Base)
5
Figure 5: Intake of processed milk in the formal sector (million litres)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Figure 6: Monthly tourist arrivals* (number)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Kenya Tourism Research Institute; Central Bank of Kenya. *Total tourist arrivals (air, cruise and cross-border);
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Milk
Inta
ke (
Mill
ion
Lit
res)
Milk Intake in 2018 Milk Intake in 2019 Milk Intake in 2020
5,000
25,000
45,000
65,000
85,000
105,000
125,000
145,000
165,000
185,000
205,000
225,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nu
mb
er o
f To
uri
sts
2018 2019 2020
6
b) Price movement Figure 7: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics CPI base year: February 2019 = 100; PPI base year: March 2019 = 100
Figure 8: Comparative Inflation for selected Countries in Africa
Data Source: Country statistical offices
97
97.5
98
98.5
99
99.5
100
100.5
101
101.5
102
102.5
103
96.00
97.00
98.00
99.00
100.00
101.00
102.00
103.00
104.00
105.00
106.00
107.00
108.00
109.00
110.00
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Pro
du
cer
Pri
ce In
dex
Co
nsu
mer
Pri
ce In
dex
Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Infl
atio
n (
%)
Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi S. Africa
Namibia Zambia Ghana Nigeria Ethiopia
7
Figure 9: Domestic wholesale agriculture commodity prices (KSh./Kg)
Data source: Calculated by KIPPRA using data from Ministry of Agriculture Figure 10: Contribution of selected CPI Baskets to overall Inflation (%)
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Kenya
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ave
rage
Wh
ole
sale
Pri
ce p
er K
g
Kales Cereals Legumes Tubers Fruits & Vegetables
(1.00)
(0.50)
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o O
vera
ll In
flat
ion
(%
)
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Clothing & FootwearHousing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels HealthFuel Inflation
8
Figure 11: Average domestic pump prices and global crude oil prices
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority; https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50
Figure 12: Global crude oil prices, December 2019 – June 2020
Data Source: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
AD
NO
C C
rud
e O
il P
rice
s (U
S$ /
Bar
rel)
Ave
rage
Lo
cal R
etai
l Pri
ce (
KSh
./Lt
r)
Motor Gasoline Premium Light Diesel Oil (Gasoil)Illuminating Kerosene ADNOC Crude Oil Prices
9.00
16.00
23.00
30.00
37.00
44.00
51.00
58.00
65.00
72.00
De
c 0
2,
20
19
De
c 0
6,
20
19
De
c 1
2,
20
19
De
c 1
8,
20
19
De
c 2
4,
20
19
De
c 3
1,
20
19
Jan
07
, 2
02
0
Jan
13
, 2
02
0
Jan
17
, 2
02
0
Jan
23
, 2
02
0
Jan
29
, 2
02
0
Fe
b 0
4,
20
20
Fe
b 1
0,
20
20
Fe
b 1
4,
20
20
Fe
b 2
0,
20
20
Fe
b 2
6,
20
20
Ma
r 0
3,
20
20
Ma
r 0
9,
20
20
Ma
r 1
6,
20
20
Ma
r 2
0,
20
20
Ma
r 2
7,2
02
0
Ap
r 0
2,
20
20
Ap
r 0
8,
20
20
Ap
r 1
3,
20
20
Ap
r 1
7,
20
20
Ap
r 2
3,
20
20
Ap
r 2
9,
20
20
Ma
y 0
5,
20
20
Ma
y 1
1,
20
20
Ma
y 1
5,
20
20
Ma
y 2
1,
20
20
Ma
y 2
6,
20
20
Jun
01
, 2
02
0
Jun
05
, 2
02
0
Jun
11
, 2
02
0
Jun
17
, 2
02
0
Jun
23
, 2
02
0
Jun
29
, 2
02
0
Cru
de
Oil
Pri
ce (
US
D/B
arr
el)
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Brent Crude Murban (ADNOC)
9
2. International Markets Figure 13: Trends in coffee and tea production (MT), exports (Ksh millions) and auction prices (KSh/Kg) Figure 13(a): Monthly coffee production (MT)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange (http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); Figure 13(b): Monthly coffee exports (KSh. Million)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange (http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); Figures for January and February 2020 are provisional.
500.00
1,500.00
2,500.00
3,500.00
4,500.00
5,500.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Co
ffee
Pro
du
ctio
n M
T)
2020 2018 2019
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Co
ffee
Exp
ort
s (K
Sh. M
illio
n)
2020 2018 2019
10
Figure 13(c): Comparison between global coffee exports (MT) and Kenya coffee exports (% of global total exports)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange (http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); International Coffee Organization (http://www.ico.org/coffee_prices.asp) Figure 13(d): Monthly Kenya coffee auction prices (KSh/Kg)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange (http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/).
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
520,000
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000
700,000
720,000
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Ken
ya C
off
ee E
xpo
rts
(% o
f gl
ob
al e
xpo
rts)
Glo
bal
Co
ffee
Exp
ort
s (M
T)
Global Coffee Exports Kenya Coffee Exports
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
be
r
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
be
r
De
cem
berCo
ffee
Au
ctio
n P
rice
s (K
Sh./
Kg)
2020 2018 2019
11
Figure 13(e): Monthly tea production (MT)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; East African Tea Trade Association Figure 13(f): Monthly tea exports (KSh. Million)
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; East African Tea Trade Association
25,000
28,000
31,000
34,000
37,000
40,000
43,000
46,000
49,000
52,000
55,000
58,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ken
ya T
ea P
rod
uct
ion
(M
T)
2020 2018 2019
6,500
7,500
8,500
9,500
10,500
11,500
12,500
13,500
14,500
15,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ken
ay T
ea E
xpo
rts
(KSh
. Mill
ion
)
2020 2018 2019
12
Figure 13(g): Monthly Kenya tea auction prices (KSh/Kg)
Data Source: KNBS; East Africa Tea Trade Association; Mombasa Tea Auction Figure 14: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to global currencies
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
190.00
210.00
230.00
250.00
270.00
290.00
310.00
330.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tea
Au
ctio
n P
rice
s (K
Sh./
Kg)
2020 2018 2019
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
01
-Jan
-19
22
-Jan
-19
12
-Fe
b-1
9
05
-Mar
-19
26
-Mar
-19
16
-Ap
r-1
9
07
-May
-19
28
-May
-19
18
-Ju
n-1
9
09
-Ju
l-1
9
30
-Ju
l-1
9
20
-Au
g-1
9
10
-Se
p-1
9
01
-Oct
-19
22
-Oct
-19
12
-No
v-1
9
03
-Dec
-19
24
-Dec
-19
14
-Jan
-20
04
-Fe
b-2
0
25
-Fe
b-2
0
17
-Mar
-20
07
-Ap
r-2
0
28
-Ap
r-2
0
19
-May
-20
09
-Ju
n-2
0
30
-Ju
n-2
0
US
Do
llar
Ind
ex
Un
its
of
KES
1 t
o 1
USD
, STG
-Po
un
d, E
uro
US Dollar Index KES/USD KES/STG-POUND KES/EURO
13
Figure 15: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to regional currencies
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya Figure 16: Performance of select currencies against the US Dollar
Data source: Country Statistics Offices; https://www.investing.com Percentage change in currencies against the US Dollar measured as end of period changes. USD-US Dollar; KES - Kenyan Shilling; UGX-Ugandan Shilling; TZS-Tanzanian Shilling; RWF-Rwandan Franc; BIF-Burundian Franc; SA-South Africa; NAD-Namibian Dollar; ZMW-Zambian Kwacha; GHS-Ghanaian Cedi; NGN-Nigerian Naira; ETB-Ethiopian Birr.
5.50
5.73
5.95
6.18
6.40
6.63
6.85
7.08
7.30
7.53
7.75
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
01
-Jan
-19
22
-Jan
-19
12
-Fe
b-1
9
05
-Mar
-19
26
-Mar
-19
16
-Ap
r-1
9
07
-May
-19
28
-May
-19
18
-Ju
n-1
9
09
-Ju
l-1
9
30
-Ju
l-1
9
20
-Au
g-1
9
10
-Se
p-1
9
01
-Oct
-19
22
-Oct
-19
12
-No
v-1
9
03
-Dec
-19
24
-Dec
-19
14
-Jan
-20
04
-Fe
b-2
0
25
-Fe
b-2
0
17
-Mar
-20
07
-Ap
r-2
0
28
-Ap
r-2
0
19
-May
-20
09
-Ju
n-2
0
30
-Ju
n-2
0
Un
its
of
KES
to
1 S
A-R
and
Un
its
of
KES
to
1 U
SH, T
SH, R
WF,
BIF
KES/UGX KES/TZS KES/RWF KES/BIF KES/SA-Rand
14
Figure 17: Months of import cover and diaspora remittances
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya
190.0
201.0
212.0
223.0
234.0
245.0
256.0
267.0
278.0
289.0
300.0
4.50
4.70
4.90
5.10
5.30
5.50
5.70
5.90
6.10
6.30
6.50
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Dia
spo
ra R
emit
ance
s (U
SD M
illio
n)
Mo
nth
s o
f Im
po
rt C
ove
r
Diaspora Remittances Months of Import cover
15
3. Money Market Figure 18: Interbank rate and volume, Repo and interest rates
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya
Figure 19: Treasury bill weighted average rate (%)
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
07
-Jan
-19
18
-Jan
-19
29
-Jan
-19
09
-Feb
-19
20
-Feb
-19
03
-Mar
-19
14
-Mar
-19
25
-Mar
-19
05
-Ap
r-1
91
6-A
pr-
19
27
-Ap
r-1
90
8-M
ay-1
91
9-M
ay-1
93
0-M
ay-1
91
0-J
un
-19
21
-Ju
n-1
90
2-J
ul-
19
13
-Ju
l-1
92
4-J
ul-
19
04
-Au
g-1
91
5-A
ug-
19
26
-Au
g-1
90
6-S
ep-1
91
7-S
ep-1
92
8-S
ep-1
90
9-O
ct-1
92
0-O
ct-1
93
1-O
ct-1
91
1-N
ov-
19
22
-No
v-1
90
3-D
ec-1
91
4-D
ec-1
92
5-D
ec-1
90
5-J
an-2
01
6-J
an-2
02
7-J
an-2
00
7-F
eb-2
01
8-F
eb-2
02
9-F
eb-2
01
1-M
ar-2
02
2-M
ar-2
00
2-A
pr-
20
13
-Ap
r-2
02
4-A
pr-
20
05
-May
-20
16
-May
-20
27
-May
-20
07
-Ju
n-2
01
8-J
un
-20
29
-Ju
n-2
0
91-Day 182-Day 364-Day
16
Figure 20: Commercial banks’ excess reserves (%) in relation to the 5.25% CRR
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; CRR = Cash Reserves Requirement Figure 21: Mobile money transactions
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Note: The mobile money subscriptions exceed total adult population since this is based on registered SIM Cards in transacting electronic gadgets (Individual mobile phones and Point of Sale gadgets). In addition, 30% of mobile users in Kenya own more than 1 SIM Card (https://www.ca.go.ke).
5.77
5.89
5.87
5.385.39
5.71
5.38
5.44
5.57
5.68
5.51
5.62
5.… 5.79
6…
5.30
5.40
5.50
5.60
5.70
5.80
5.90
6.00
6.10
6.20
6.30
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20Co
mm
erci
al b
anks
’ exc
ess
rese
rves
(%
) in
rel
atio
n
to t
he
5.2
5%
CR
R
290.00
300.00
310.00
320.00
330.00
340.00
350.00
360.00
370.00
380.00
390.00
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Val
ue
of
Tran
sact
ion
s (K
Sh. B
illio
n)
Sub
scri
pti
osn
an
d T
ran
sact
ion
s (N
um
ber
)
Mobile Money Subscriptions (Millions) Number of Transactions (Millions)
Value of Transactions (KSh Billion)
17
Figure 22: Kenyan banking sector performance Figure 22 (a) Return on asset (%)
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya Figure 22 (b) Liquidity ratio and ratio of gross NPL to gross loans, (%)
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya
0.30
0.56
0.96
1.23
1.52
1.82
2.09
2.35
2.61
2.92
3.153.31
0.27
0.50
0.77
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
1.50
1.80
2.10
2.40
2.70
3.00
3.30
3.60Ja
n-1
9
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ret
urn
on
Ass
et (
%)
48.2
48.5
48.8
49.1
49.4
49.7
50.0
50.3
50.6
50.9
51.2
51.5
11.9000
12.0000
12.1000
12.2000
12.3000
12.4000
12.5000
12.6000
12.7000
12.8000
12.9000
13.0000
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Liq
uid
ity
Rat
io (
%)
Rat
io o
f G
ross
NP
L to
Gro
ss L
oan
s (%
)
Ratio of Gross NPL/Gross loans Liquidity Ratio
18
Figure 23: Banking sector credit
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya Figure 24: Monetary policy stance for selected countries in Africa
Source: Country Central Banks
2.10
3.20
4.30
5.40
6.50
7.60
8.70
9.80
4.00
8.00
12.00
16.00
20.00
24.00
28.00
32.00
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Pri
vate
Sec
tor
Cre
dit
Gro
wth
(%
)
Pu
blic
an
d M
anu
fact
uri
gn s
ecto
r p
rop
ort
ion
of
Ban
kin
g se
cto
r cr
edit
(%
)
Pubilc Sector Proportion of Banking sector credit (%)
Manufacturing sector credit proportion of Banking sector credit (%)
Private Sector Credit Growth (%)
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda
Ghana Nigeria Zambia S. Africa
19
4. Fiscal Performance Figure 25: Fiscal deficit and county transfers (KSh. Billion)
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya; Figures for February and March 2020 are provisional Figure 26: Monthly utilization of revenue against target
Data Source: Monthly Gazette Notices, The National Treasury and Planning
-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June
Fiscal Deficit 2017/18 County Transfer 2017/18 Fiscal Deficit 2018/19
County Transfer 2018/19 Fiscal Deficit 2019/20 County Transfer 2019/20
20
Figure 27: Exchequer allocation to Ministry of Health as a % of total Issues to Ministries, Agencies and Departments
Data Source: Monthly Gazette Notices, The National Treasury and Planning Figure 28: Composition of Government Revenue (KSh Billion)
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya and The National Treasury data published on monthly Kenya Gazette Notices; figures for April-June 2020 are provisional.
0.50
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.50
9.50
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Rec
urr
ent
& D
evel
op
men
t Is
sues
(%
) to
Hea
lth
Se
cto
r
Recurrent Exchequer Issues as a % of total Issues to MDAs
Development Exchequer Issues as a % of total Issues to MDAs
2,7
23
.78
3,8
84
.79
69
7.4
4
1,8
64
.45
2,9
89
.92
4,0
23
.54
39
1.0
3
58
7.4
5
59
.42 35
8.3
7
37
2.4
5
34
2.6
7
38
.57
69
.68
5.7
2
28
.24
37
.63
30
.39
3,1
53
.38
4,5
41
.92
78
1.0
1
2,2
51
.04
3,5
99
.29
4,3
96
.61
-
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
4,500.00
5,000.00
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020 April-June 2020
Rev
enu
e (K
Sh. B
illio
n)
Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Grants Total Revenue
21
Figure 29: Growth in tax revenue (%) and quarterly GDP growth (%)
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of Kenya Figure 30: Total debt (KSh. Billion) and proportionate shares of domestic and foreign debt
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya
11.30
8.16
7.14
9.54
10.55
7.63
9.78
10.14
11.21
9.77
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Q1-2018 - Q1-2019 Q2-2018 - Q2-2019 Q3-2018 - Q3-2019 Q4-2018 - Q4-2019 Q1-2019 - Q1-2020
Gro
wth
in T
ax R
even
ue
and
Qu
arte
rly
GD
P (
%)
Nominal Quarterly GDP Growth Nominal Tax Revenue Growth
49
.37
%
48
.34
%
49
.79
%
47
.96
%
47
.86
%
50
.63
%
51
.66
%
50
.21
%
52
.04
%
52
.14
%
(500.00)
500.00
1,500.00
2,500.00
3,500.00
4,500.00
5,500.00
6,500.00
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
KSh
. Bill
ion
s
Domestic debt Public & Publicly Guaranteed External debt Total Debt
22
Figure 31: Composition of government domestic debt by instrument (%)
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya Figure 32: Composition of government domestic debt by holder (%)
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya
36.30 35.78 33.55 31.20 29.86 28.58
61.34 62.48 63.49 65.81 67.67 68.94
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec2019 Jan-March 2020 April-June 2020
Treasury Bills (excluding Repos) Treasury Bonds CBK Overdraft to Govt Other domestic debt
54.60 54.33 54.15 53.80 54.49 54.46
6.10 6.19 6.18 6.51 6.33 6.2
7.26 7.06 7.06 6.97 6.30 5.77
27.56 27.94 28.34 28.38 28.59 29.16
4.49 4.47 4.27 4.34 4.29 4.4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020 April-June 2020
Banking Institutions Insurance Companies Parastatals Pension Funds Other investors
23
Figure 33: Composition of external debt: proportionate shares of bilateral, multilateral, commercial bank and export credit
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya
34
.17
33
.89
32
.72
32
.76
32
.65
31
.22
31
.00
32
.51
33
.24
33
.00
34
.00
34
.53
34
.22
33
.46
33
.81
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020
% o
f Ex
tern
al D
ebt
Bilateral Multilateral Commercial Banks Export Credit
24
5. Capital Markets Figure 34: Bond volumes traded (Ksh million) and FTSE NSE Kenya government bond price Index
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Central Bank of Kenya Figure 35: The 10-year Kenya Eurobond (2024) yield (%)
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya
12000.00
20800.00
29600.00
38400.00
47200.00
56000.00
64800.00
73600.00
82400.00
91200.00
100000.00
94.00
94.50
95.00
95.50
96.00
96.50
97.00
97.50
98.00
98.50
99.00Ja
n-1
9
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Bo
nd
Vo
lum
es T
rad
ed (
KSh
. Mill
ion
)
FTSE
NSE
Ken
ya G
ove
rnm
ent
Bo
nd
Pri
ce In
dex
FTSE NSE Govt Bond Price Index Bond Volumes Traded (KSh. Million)
4.200 4.700 5.200 5.700 6.200 6.700 7.200 7.700 8.200 8.700 9.200 9.700
10.200 10.700
02
-Jan
-19
16
-Jan
-19
30
-Jan
-19
13
-Fe
b-1
92
7-F
eb
-19
13
-Mar
-19
27
-Mar
-19
10
-Ap
r-1
92
4-A
pr-
19
08
-May
-19
22
-May
-19
05
-Ju
n-1
91
9-J
un
-19
03
-Ju
l-1
91
7-J
ul-
19
31
-Ju
l-1
91
4-A
ug-
19
28
-Au
g-1
91
1-S
ep
-19
25
-Se
p-1
90
9-O
ct-1
92
3-O
ct-1
90
6-N
ov-
19
20
-No
v-1
90
4-D
ec-1
91
8-D
ec-1
90
1-J
an-2
01
5-J
an-2
02
9-J
an-2
01
2-F
eb
-20
26
-Fe
b-2
01
1-M
ar-2
02
5-M
ar-2
00
8-A
pr-
20
22
-Ap
r-2
00
6-M
ay-2
02
0-M
ay-2
00
3-J
un
-20
17
-Ju
n-2
00
1-J
ul-
20
Yiel
d (
%)
10-year Eurobond Yield - 2024 (%)
25
Figure 36: Stock market performance
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange Figure 37: Stock value turnover ratio (%)
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Calculated as equity turnover value (Ksh million)/ Market capitalization (Ksh million)
1800.00
1900.00
2000.00
2100.00
2200.00
2300.00
2400.00
2500.00
2600.00
2700.00
2800.00
2900.00
3000.00
3100.00
01
-Jan
-19
22
-Jan
-19
12
-Fe
b-1
9
05
-Mar
-19
26
-Mar
-19
16
-Ap
r-1
9
07
-May
-19
28
-May
-19
18
-Ju
n-1
9
09
-Ju
l-1
9
30
-Ju
l-1
9
20
-Au
g-1
9
10
-Se
p-1
9
01
-Oct
-19
22
-Oct
-19
12
-No
v-1
9
03
-Dec
-19
24
-Dec
-19
14
-Jan
-20
04
-Fe
b-2
0
25
-Fe
b-2
0
17
-Mar
-20
07
-Ap
r-2
0
28
-Ap
r-2
0
19
-May
-20
09
-Ju
n-2
0
30
-Ju
n-2
0
NSE20 Index Mkt Cap (KSh Bn)
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
0.100
0.110
0.120
0.130
01
-Jan
-19
22
-Jan
-19
12
-Fe
b-1
9
05
-Mar
-19
26
-Mar
-19
16
-Ap
r-1
9
07
-May
-19
28
-May
-19
18
-Ju
n-1
9
09
-Ju
l-1
9
30
-Ju
l-1
9
20
-Au
g-1
9
10
-Se
p-1
9
01
-Oct
-19
22
-Oct
-19
12
-No
v-1
9
03
-Dec
-19
24
-Dec
-19
14
-Jan
-20
04
-Fe
b-2
0
25
-Fe
b-2
0
17
-Mar
-20
07
-Ap
r-2
0
28
-Ap
r-2
0
19
-May
-20
09
-Ju
n-2
0
30
-Ju
n-2
0
Sto
ck T
urn
ove
r R
atio
(%
)
26
Figure 38: Foreign trading in the stock market
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya; AIB Capital Ltd (http://www.aibcapital.com/research). Figure 39: Stock market performance of selected advanced and emerging markets Figure 39(a): USA stock markets
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com
0
16
32
48
64
80
96
112
128
144
160
3,500
5,500
7,500
9,500
11,500
13,500
15,500
17,500
19,500
21,500
23,500
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Ave
rage
Fo
reig
n P
arti
cip
atio
n t
o E
qu
ity
Turn
ove
r (%
)
Fore
ign
Pu
rch
ases
& S
ales
, Eq
uit
y Tu
rno
ver
(KSh
. M
illio
n)
Average Foreign Participation to Equity Turnover (%) Foreign Purchases (FP)Foreign Sales (FS) Equity Market Turnover (ET)
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Do
w J
on
es In
du
stri
al A
vera
ge
NYS
E C
om
po
site
& N
asd
a 1
00
NYSE Composite Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
27
Figure 39(b): European stock markets
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com Figure 39(c): Asian stock markets
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com
850
886
922
958
994
1,030
1,066
1,102
1,138
1,174
1,210
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Euro
Nex
t 1
00
Lon
do
n S
tock
Exc
han
ge
London Stock Exchange Group PLC (LSE) EuroNext 100 (N100)
18,600
19,140
19,680
20,220
20,760
21,300
21,840
22,380
22,920
23,460
24,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Nik
kei 2
25
SSC
E &
SZS
C
Shanghai Composite (SSEC) SZSE Composite Index (SZSC) Nikkei 225 (N225)
28
Figure 39(d): African stock markets
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com
800
918
1,036
1,153
1,271
1,389
1,507
1,624
1,742
1,860
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
3,500
3,700
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
EGX
10
0 &
NG
SE3
0
FTW
IZA
FL &
NSE
20
FTSE South Africa (FTWIZAFL) NSE20 (Kenya) EGX100 (Egypt) NGSE30 (Nigeria)
29
6. Risk-related Factors Figure 40: Kenya purchasing managers’ index
Data Source: Stanbic Bank (https://www.stanbicbank.co.ke); IHS-Markit (https://ihsmarkit.com)
Key: 50.0 = Neutral; Above 50.0 = Expansion; Below 50.0 = Contraction
Figure 41: Mean annual and seasonal rainfall (millimeters)
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Kenya Meteorological Department; https://www.worldweatheronline.com/
35
0.7
35
4.0
59
9.6
26
2.7
49
1.7
3
10
4.6
10
4.0
19
1.5
65
.2 14
2.8
15
5.0
20
4.3
58
4.4
703.9 675.3
1,083.1
912.3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ave
rage
Rai
nfa
ll in
Mili
met
ers
March-May June-August October-December Annual
30
Figure 42: Mean monthly temperature (degrees celsius)
Data Source: Kenya Meteorological Department; https://www.worldweatheronline.com/ Table 1: Fitch rating for Kenya, 18 June 2020
Rating Type Outlook Rating Action Prior
B+ LTR (Long term Issuer default rating) Negative Affirmed B+
B STR (Short-term Issuer default rating) Affirmed B
B Local Currency Short Term Issuer Default Rating Affirmed B
B+ Country Ceiling Downgrade BB-
B+ Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating Negative Affirmed B+
Data source: https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/kenya-86485911#ratings
20.00
20.50
21.00
21.50
22.00
22.50
23.00
23.50
24.00
24.50
25.00
25.50
26.00
26.50
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
be
r
Oct
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2018 2019 2020
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Figure 43: Covid-19 statistics for Kenya, 01 March – 17 July 2020
Data source: World Health Organization; Ministry of Health
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Figure 44: Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa countries to COVID-19 shock in 2020
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2020
33
