Perception of Flood Risk in the Danube Delta

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Perception of flood risk in the Danube Delta / Romania

Abstract

1. Introduction

River deltas have represented cradles of civilizations and they are, upto today, favouredareals for the development of human habitats, as a result of their high productivity,

biodiversity and favourable economical conditions for river transport. At the same time,

they represent areals with high vulnerability to environmental changes, being extremely

susceptible to natural disasters, out of which especially to floods.The Danube Delta, with its 5!" #m$ , is the largest ecosystem of the humid zones of

%urope &'argesson, ())*+ ancelot et al., $""$- to reflect the environments condition ata local and regional level &through the parameters of li/uid and solid flow-, at the sametime having to insure the water supply of the economy and related communities &fig.-.

The Danube Delta lies between 01mpia 2ugeacului to the north and 3odi4ul Dobrogei,

which limits it to the south and southwest, and it has evolved in coordination with astability phase of the 2lac# 6eas level, inside a gulf 5$"" years ago, building itself up

through the three arms of 6f. 7heorghe, 6ulina and 0hitila.

8ydrologically, the Danube Delta exists in a natural regime until (9". The networ# of

main arms and bac#waters maintains its natural structure until the beginning of the ::thcentury, when the direction of the 6ulina arm is rectified to enable sea navigation. During

the first half of the ::thcentury a series of canals are built, but especially after ()5" a

massive pro;ect of building navigational canals begins, modifying thus the hydrographicnetwor# inside the Delta.

2etween ()!5$""* the average and maximum annual flows had a general tendency to

rise, while the average monthly distribution of maximum water flow was large during themonths of march to ;une.


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3sychosocial investigations too# place between (*$( ;uly $""* in the village of 6f.

7heorghe and ((" august $""* in the city of Tulcea, consisting of a >facetoface?

application of a standardized form on a number of @$ items &annex-.A number of (!@ sub;ects have been investigated on the field 9 from the town of 6f.

7heorgheB Tulcea county, $( sub;ects from the central area of Tulcea city, without flood

ris#, and @ from the Tudor Cladimirescu districtB Tulcea &ma;or ris# area-, fig. and table.

Table. 'ain demographic characteristics &percentages-6ex Age &years- %ducation ccupation wnership

status

m f $"

@5

@

5

over

middle5school

high5school

college

civil

serv

ant

fisher

men

wor#5at5home

others retired tenant owner

5$,! !*, (" !,( $5,) !,* $$,9 ($,5 $( 9 $",@ ($,@ @9,! !,) )5,(

The sample has been randomly put together and is not representative for the population ofthe Delta with regard to age, sex distribution, education, income etc. At the same time,

we cannot estimate the response of those who have refused to fill in the form.The sub;ects attitude has been, in most cases, friendly, most of them showing interest in

the issue presented. At a low percentage of sub;ects interviewed in the village of 6f.

7heorghe we encountered high susceptibility or even hostility as the refused theinterview. This aspect should be interpreted from the perspective of the social tensions

existing in the area since the declaration of the Danube Delta 2iosphere Reservation and

restrictions imposed on fishing.

The ob;ective of this study was focused on the a complex evaluation of flood ris#

perception. The study has an explorational character, based on the hypothesis that thereare common perceptions regarding the ris# factors, and the local inhabitants differ underthe aspect of social vulnerability according to a series of demographical, socio

economical and psychological variables.

The building of the items of this form was made with help from a group of experts,through /ualitative methods &focusgroup-. To chec# its validity, the initial /uestionnaire

was applied to a pilot sample of (!@ persons, on the sub;ect of seismic ris# in 2ucharest,

some of the /uestions having suffered slight modifications afterwards. Ta#ing intoconsideration the sub;ects complexity and the need to obtain a level of information as

large and as diverse as possible, items were set to re/uest open answers the indication

of the largest considered danger for the household or the most difficult moment

experienced in life lin#ed to a natural event, the behaviour in case of a disaster, thereaction in front of a negative scenario, the naming of a series of concrete measures

during the diaster, the evaluation of personal attachment towards material goods or

people. The rest of the items have been coded with answers on a i#ert scale of 5 levels&( being the lowest and 5 being the highest-. 3ro;ectional items @, ! and ), which evaluate

the control place, scaled initially as negative, were reversed during processing in order to

be aggregated.


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The items detected cognitive elements, such as expectations &negative expectations

regarding the person, household, psychological balance, health, and the alteration of

family security or social relationships and lifestyle-, postdisastrual anticipations &degreeof resilience- and evaluationsB;udgements &assignment of the natural disasters-, emotional

aspects&the feeling of shame, of fear-, abilities&preparing against disaster- and

behaviours &active or passive reporting+ strategies in case of future events, devised on thebasis of experienced past events-. The level of resilience attributed, as an important

variable for evaluating psychosocial vulnerability, was estimated on the basis of the type

of support expected from entities such as family, friends, government, local authoritiesetc., the evaluation of resources level and the orientating towards an external or internal

control >locus? in case of a disaster &bibliography-.

The research stages divided between descriptive processing of data, identifying commonfactors of perceptional ris# reporting through means of inferential analyses, evaluation of

high psychosocial vulnerability categories and establishing a psychological profile of the

individuals predisposed to display a strong unadaptative behaviour under the conditions

of natural ris#sB floods.

". Results

".1. Descriptive anal!ses

The interpretation of openanswers items shows that around exposed areals, susceptible

to flood ris#, the most difficult experiences, with natural causes, are centered on theseevents *(,5E of the participants from Tudor Cladimirescu district and !@,@E from the

village of 6f. 7heorghe.

6ub;ects from districts not exposed to flood danger, in the central sector of Tulcea city,have appreciated in proportion of over 9"E that earth/ua#es are the largest natural

danger for their households.

Descriptive analyses show that most of the respondents evaluations are placed on themiddle level of the scale &averagely- placing the blame for an eventual disaster on theauthorities &item 9-, the tendency to become anxious during crysis situations &item (!-,

the feeling that the ris# affects everyday life &item (-, the probability of lifestyle

alteration because of floods &item $(-, fear of the flood ris# &item $@-.%valuations set on the superior level of the scale &such as answers of the type >medium

probability? or >high probability?- are recorded when reporting the ris# to their own

person and personal properties household damage in case of flood &item (5, ()-, physicaland psychological health damage &item (* and (9, respectively-, affecting the family

&item $"-.

n a lower value seem to be scaled items that are centered on aspects of support,

preparation &revolving around answers of the >low probability? type- there is no generalfear that floods would damage relationships with friends or a/uaintances &item $$-.

3ersonal preparation in case of a crysis has a low value, towards medium, showing that

interviewed sub;ects are not adapted well enough for such cases &item $5a-, respondentsdont expect to be helped by many others in case of a flood &item $9-, recovering their

goods being appreciated as not very probable &item @"-, and the locals lac#ing personal

resources in case of crysis situations &item @(-.

".2. Raportarea psiholoic# la risc


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To psychologically detect the manner in which the interviewed persons report to the

disaster of floods, a number of 9 items was introduced into the research. They are item (

&the belief that the sub;ect is a luc#y person-, item @ &faith in destiny-, item ! &theimminence of danger regardless of personal effort-, items 5 and &the degree of influence

that destiny has-, item * &the belief that misfortunes are punishment for personal actions-,

item 9 &pro;ecting disasters as authorities fault- and item ) &the imminence of disasters ina persons life, regardless of personal effot-. Fegatively scaled items were initially

reversed &items @, ! and )-.

The clusters analysis show an initial association between items 5 and referring to thedegree of influence upon destiny through personal effort &fig.-. n a different level, they

form a cluster with items ( and ) &reversed-, which we could psychologically call theinternal place of control &in the sense of Rotters conception, ()-. During subse/uent

processing we resolved to aggregate the values of each person for these items, highscores being associated with an internal control of the events. =rom a psychological point

of view, people of this type are characterised by the fact that they perceive ade/uate

solving of ma;or events in their lives as depending, mostly, on themselves. 3laced in the

case of a negative scenario such as the loss of their entire fortune as conse/uence of acatastrophic flood, persons with a high degree of internal control gave the smallest

number of fatalistic answers &around E- and were constantly oriented towards notre/uiring support, mentioning that they are trying to recover by starting all over again in

the same place.


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number of ( items was introduced in the research, analysed based on carrying out an

explorational factorial analysis &table-.

Table.


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item(" .5)(

item($ .*"(

item(! .$

item(@ .95!

item(( .9$@

item $! .59@

%xtraction 'ethod 3rincipal 0omponent Analysis.Rotation 'ethod Carimax with Gaiser Formalization.

a Rotation converged in (" iterations.

=actor ( refers to cognitions &the estimated level of losses and conse/uent preoccupation

towards the imminence of such a threat-.


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sig. H ",""(-, fact confirmed also by expert literature &see 3art


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(!, $ 59,

@ )($,

6ig..""" .""@ ."($

!(@(, F ((@ ($5 ($)


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and r H ",@9, pK","(- as well as from other organizations &rH",@9, pK","( and r H ".@5,

pK","(-.

0oncerning the type of support expected, sub;ects have mentioned more optionsfinancial &(!E-, labour help &(),E-, moral &*E-, material goods &$5,)E-, others

including food, shelter etc. &$!,5E-. Around )E did not answer this item.

The sub;ects who expect financial and material support are li#ely to place moreresponsibility on the authorities in case of a disaster &0his/uare &!-H!,@$, pK","(- and

anticipate a decrease in the number of persons who will offer support &0his/uare

&!-H(!,"), pK","(-.Distinctly, the sub;ects who expect moral support rely mostly on their family &0his/uare

&!-H$5,(*, pK","(- and, next to those who expect help in the form of labour or mixed

support, appreciate that floods will have a greater impact on interhuman relationships

&0his/uare &!-H),"*, pK","5-.Although the samples regarding the ownership title are very unbalanced &!,)E tenants+

)5,(E owners-, the 'annLhitney test showed that owners anticipate to recover more of

the losses that happened during the floods &P H $99, F( H (@, F$ H *, pK","5 bilateral-.

The analysis of correlations between independent variables was ran to identify any

possible tendencies of significant association relating to the ris# of floods. &table-

Table. 0orellations between variables &6pearman correlations-

items 9 (! (5 ( (* (9 () $" $( $$ $5 $9

(! .()M

(5 .@*MM

QAs people declare themselves more religious, there is a slight increase in the tendencies to give a largerresponsibility to authorities &r H ",(*, pK","5-, to consider the possibility of floods as a ma;or factor of

uneasiness in everyday life &r H ",(), pK","5-, which can affect health &r H ",(), pK","5-, psychological

balance &r H ",(, pK","5-, family safety &r H ",$@, pK","(-. These persons also tend to display a negativeorientation concerning the expectancy of recovering possible losses &r H ",(), pK","5-. The religiousnessdegree correlates negatively with the trust in family support, expectations increase for help from supreme

authorities more distantly related such as the government &r H ",$@, pK"."5-, or other organizations &r H

",$5, pK","(-.


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$5 .$$M

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.(9MM .(9M

@" .$)MM .(9M

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.$$MM

MM significant correlations at step pK ",""(+ bilateral M significant correlations at step pK ","5+ bilateral

The results of correlational analyses between the independent variables are incoordination with observations made upon applying the procedures previously presented.

6trong correlations appear between the perceived level of personal damage &health,

psychological balance, everyday life, family, household- and the fear that such an evencould happen. =ear results from losing control during the events ta#ing place. 3eople

develop a higher sensitivity when their degree of involvement in a dangerous scenario

increases, and the presence of negative thoughts affects the /uality of life. 3sychologicalvulnerabilization in front of danger is also emphasized by the absence of resources and,

therefore, by lower resilience capability.

Lhen self confidence drops, the individuals orientation towards exterior help and

support increases. Lhen these needs are not fulfilled by society, fear becomes a constantcondition, which is also pro;ected upon the natural environment. The lac# of resources,

implying low resilience, and the lac# of faith in support &through the scenario of

relationships deteriorating during cysis situations-, strengthens unadaptative behaviour.

6uch people display a low adaptative level and are most susceptible to sever postdisastertraumas, demanding special attention &bibliography-.


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The application of the unifactorial AFCA test to emphasize the internal control place

on the three areals also shows significant differences between the means of the three

samples &unifactorial AFCA, =&$, (!"- H @,5!+ p H ","@-. The sub;ects from TudorCladimirescu district &' H @(,, 6D H $,$- present an internal orientation of control

stronger compared to those in 6f. 7heorghe &' H ((,5, 6D H $,- and the locals of Tulcea

centre &' H (",!, 6D H $,5-.The 3ost 8oc Tests table displays comparisons of the three groups means, ta#en two by

two &table*-.

Table *. 3ost 8oc Tests O 'ultiple comparisons &internal control place-

Dependant variable internal control locus

&


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&$"- H 5,9, pK",""(-. 6ub;ects with less hope of recovering the losses are thos from 6f.

7heorghe &*E of those who answered they will recover a very small extent of their

losses- .


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essential aspect in relating to the ris# event is the degree of control perceived. This varies

depending on ob;ective aspects such as the level of resilience given by the amount of

available resources and expected support, or psychological factors represented Omainlyby the place of control.

The application of the inferential statistics tests showed the fact that sub;ects who rely on

personal forces to overcome critical situations &internal place of control- have a lowergeneral vulnerability level and the tendency not to invest too much energy in negative

scenarios, which they pro;ect into a faroff future. At the same time, their general level of

anxiety is significantly smaller than the anxiety of those with a stronger orientationtowards an external place of control. 3ersons with a higher degree of internal control,

faced with a negative scenario such as the loss of their entire fortune due to flooding,

gave the lowest number of fatalistic answers and constantly oriented themselves not to

as# for support, mentioning that they are trying to recover through their own forces bystarting all over again, in the same place. These sub;ects have a lower level of expecting

postdisaster support,being the most active and having the most initiative during crysis

events. Lhen self confidence drops, the individuals orientation towards the exterior

increases, expecting support and security. Lhen these needs are not fulfilled at a narrowsocial level &family- or extended &friends, a/uaintances, state institutions-, fear becomes a

constant condition, which is also pro;ected upon the natural environment. The lac# ofresources, implying low resilience, and the lac# of faith in support &through the scenario

of relationships deteriorating during cysis situations-, strengthens unadaptative behaviour.

Perception of Flood Risk in the Danube Delta

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