THE TALK ABOUT TRUMP (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SECOND WAVE OF PRESIDENTIAL

CANDIDATE ANNOUNCEMENTS)

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD & ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN

RELEASE DATE: AUGUST 4, 2015

Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of

the presidential candidates and their campaign messages.

PART ONE

The Talk About Trump

Candidates(Descending order)

Total MentionsMay 16 – July 19

All Announced Candidates(share of voice, in %)

Announced Republicans Only

(share of voice, in %)

Donald Trump 7,104,502 32.5 46.6

Hillary Clinton 3,855,984 17.7 --

Bernie Sanders 2,482,282 10.9 --

Jeb Bush 1,633,109 7.5 10.7

Ted Cruz 1,271,561 5.8 8.3

Scott Walker 983,691 4.5 6.5

Rand Paul 669,452 3.1 4.4

Marco Rubio 655,452 3.0 4.3

Chris Christie 617,839 2.8 4.1

Rick Perry 549,047 2.5 3.6

Mike Huckabee 426,690 2.0 2.8

Lindsey Graham 340,765 1.6 2.2

Bobby Jindal 312,055 1.4 2.0

Rick Santorum 259,042 1.2 1.7

Ben Carson 256,121 1.2 1.7

Martin O’Malley 189,386 0.9 --

Carly Fiorina 102,289 0.5 0.7

Jim Webb 90,369 0.4 --

Lincoln Chafee 71,293 0.3 --

George Pataki 70,320 0.3 0.5

TRUMP DOMINATES

Note: Governor John Kasich had not yet announced his candidacy. He is excluded from the above analysis

TRUMP’S SEVEN TOWERS

Candidates Announcement Date

Rick Santorum May 27

George Pataki May 28

Martin O’Malley May 30

Lindsey Graham June 1

Lincoln Chafee June 3

Rick Perry June 4

Jeb Bush June 15

Donald Trump June 16

Bobby Jindal June 24

Chris Christie June 30

Jim Webb July 2

Scott Walker July 13

Trump Towers (Seven Spikes in Trump Talk)

Spike Date

Announcement Date June 16

Univision Cancels Miss USA Broadcast

June 25

NBC Severs Ties June 29

Macy’s Severs Ties July 1

Trump Rally in Phoenix July 11

Trump Comments on “El Chapo” July 13

Trump Comments on Sen. McCain July 18

TRUMP MUFFLES ANNOUNCEMENT ECHOES

Candidates (In announcement order)

Announcement Echo Dates Total Mentions During Echo

Share of Voice During Echo (in %)

Rick Santorum May 27 - May 29 39,104 25

George Pataki May 28 – May 29 19,627 17

Martin O’Malley May 30 – May 31 50,594 48

Lindsey Graham June 1 – June 2 52,466 43

Lincoln Chafee June 3 – June 4 28,190 11

Rick Perry June 4 – June 6 154,449 52

Jeb Bush June 15 – June 20 404,550 20

Donald Trump June 16 – June 22 1,517,570 76

Bobby Jindal June 24 – June 28 146,969 15

Chris Christie June 30 – July 3 173,405 12

Jim Webb July 2 – July 3 30,524 5

Scott Walker July 13 – July 18 337,199 17

ESPECIALLY BUSH

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Rick Santorum George Pataki Martin O'Malley Lindsey Graham Lincoln Chafee Rick Perry Jeb Bush Donald Trump Bobby Jindal Chris Christie Jim Webb Scott Walker

Share of Voice

3 Days Before Announcement Day 3 Days After

WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?

Candidates(In announcement order)

Mainstream MediaMay 16-July 19

Social Media

May 16-July 19

Rick Santorum 4 2

George Pataki 2 <1

Martin O’Malley

4 1

Lindsey Graham

6 2

Lincoln Chafee 2 <1

Rick Perry 6 4

Jeb Bush 25 12

Donald Trump 26 61

Bobby Jindal 3 3

Chris Christie 8 5

Jim Webb 1 1

Scott Walker 12 8

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Mainstream Media vs. Social Media

Share of Voice (%)

Mainstream Media Social Media

TRUMP ON TOP? ECHO CONVERSION RATE

Candidates (In announcement order)

Total Mentions (May 16 – July 19)

Chatter Volume (# of mentions

above/below mean # of mentions, May

16 – July 19)

Total Website Shares in 63 days (May 16 – July 19)

63-day Echo Conversion Rate (Total

Website Shares/Total Mentions, in %)

Rick Santorum 259,042 -759,409 6,017 2.3

George Pataki 70,320 -948,131 523 0.7

Martin O’Malley 189,386 -829,065 3,705 2.0

Lindsey Graham 340,765 -677,686 n/a n/a

Lincoln Chafee 71,293 -947,158 153 0.2

Rick Perry 549,047 -469,404 7,336 1.3

Jeb Bush 1,633,109 614,658 5,706 0.3

Donald Trump 7,104,502 6,086,051 14,648 0.2

Bobby Jindal 312,055 -706,396 7,066 2.3

Chris Christie 617,839 -400,612 n/a n/a

Jim Webb 90,369 -928,180 456 0.5

Scott Walker 983,691 -162,315 6,763 0.7

BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total Mentions

Mentions Per Day

Trump Pumped Up the Volume

Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19)

All Candidates for Dates

Total Mentions

Mentions per Day

Before Trump (3/15-6/15)

19,124,790 ~ 212K

After Trump (6/16-7/19)

15,600,595 ~ 473K

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BT - Total Mentions BT - Share of Voice (%) AT - Total Mentions AT - Share of Voice (%)

BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)

First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates

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RickSantorum

GeorgePataki

MartinO'Malley

LindseyGraham

LincolnChafee

Rick Perry Jeb Bush DonaldTrump

BobbyJindal

ChrisChristie

Jim Webb ScottWalker

Ted Cruz Rand Paul HillaryClinton

MarcoRubio

BernieSanders

BenCarson

CarlyFiorina

MikeHuckabee

Positi

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-Neg

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Share

(%)

Net Sentiment Before Trump (3/15-6/15) and After Trump (6/16-7/19)

Before Trump After Trump

BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)

Trump “Mud-Slingers”

Trump “Clean

Hands”

Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, andDonald Trump

Ted Cruz and Rand

Paul

First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates

BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)

All Candidates & Campaign Money Mentions for Dates

Total Mentions

Mentions per Day

Before Trump (3/15-6/15)

675,624 7,506

After Trump (6/16-7/19)

377,026 11,425

All Candidates & ImmigrationMentions for Dates

Total Mentions

Mentions per Day

Before Trump (3/15-6/15)

18,458,071 205,089

After Trump (6/16-7/19)

14,620,501 443,045

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total Mentions

Mentions Per Day

Candidates & Immigration

Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total Mentions

Mentions Per Day

Candidates & Campaign Money

Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19)

BEFORE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET

Candidates (In announcement order, second wave)

Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Trump Period(March 15-June 15)

Tweet Share

s

Rick SantorumToday I announce my candidacy for President of the United States! Join me at http://t.co/zj89cNMaUY and

let's take back America!291

George PatakiIf someone chooses a path that's different than mine, we should respect it as opposed to

mocking...@Caitlyn_Jenner http://t.co/qNwmOMAVVU79

Martin O’MalleyGood to hear from you after all these years, @SarahPalinUSA. There's still room in GOP primary for another

entrant! https://t.co/AhjD8DNbOn652

Lindsey Graham n/a n/a

Lincoln Chafee Today I am formally entering the race for the Democratic nomination for President #Chafee2016 117

Rick Perry Let us be worthy of their sacrifice. https://t.co/fVBUxSM5s4 #DDay71 http://t.co/aWXVhjSW59 399

Jeb Bush I'm running for President of the United States. I will run with heart. I will run to win. http://t.co/Z3wh8ECPUl 1,378

Donald Trump .@FloydMayweather Good luck tonight Floyd. 891

Bobby Jindal As long as I’m Governor, we will fight to protect religious liberty and not apologize for it. 251

Chris ChristieWhat. You thought I would let everyone else have all the fun? This is called #OwningIt

https://t.co/0f1PxS6IFJ (h/t @IJReview)284

Jim WebbPolitical pundits ask "can you raise a billion dollars?" Other people ask, "can you lead?"

http://t.co/RtPImheLLZ #LeadershipYouCanTrust62

Scott WalkerDid you know, Americans will spend more on taxes in 2015 than on food, clothing and housing combined? -

TW http://t.co/wi1fmpYRfS 716

BEFORE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT.

Candidates (In announcement order, first wave)

Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Trump Period(March 15-June 15)

Tweet Share

s

Ted Cruz I'm running for President and I hope to earn your support! http://t.co/0UTqaIoytP 13,124

Rand Paul How many retweets can we get? http://t.co/lpzLQCfz0F http://t.co/eo6LzfAoh8 2,537

Hillary ClintonI'm running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion. –H

https://t.co/w8Hoe1pbtC 95,557

Marco Rubio ... I announce my candidacy for President of the United States of America. 2,632

Bernie Sanders Every candidate for president must answer the following questions: http://t.co/7tZnpR3MKg 2,640

Ben Carson I'm in it! 3,286

Carly FiorinaThanks, @chucktodd, for having me on @meetthepress this morning. Btw, check out

http://t.co/m9C6LxE89J . #domaingate464

Mike HuckabeeIslamic Jihad = a rattlesnake. Watch "Rattlesnake" then retweet if you agree http://t.co/3hVWYjm7Sp

http://t.co/ZAB1QEwYva 861

AFTER TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET

Candidates (In announcement order), second wave

Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Trump Period(June 16-July 19)

Tweet Share

s

Rick Santorum

RT if you believe marriage is the union of one man and one woman. https://t.co/7mf9mLaZ78 #Rick2016 530

George PatakiIt should be painfully obvious that a government that endorses the credo "Death to America" is a

danger to our safety & security. #IranDeal 139

Martin O’Malley

I’m pissed. We're asking what it will take to stop this violence? We must stop asking: we must act now, as a nation. #CharlestonShooting 312

Lindsey Graham

At the heart of @realDonaldTrump statement is a lack of respect for those who have served - a disqualifying characteristic to be president 408

Lincoln Chafee Congratulations to Supreme Court on today's good ruling for marriage equality! #chafee2016 94

Rick Perry Happy 4th of July! http://t.co/Uv5HAD7ROm 1,865

Jeb BushEnough with the slanderous attacks. @SenJohnMcCain and all our veterans - particularly POWs have

earned our respect and admiration. 1,352

Donald TrumpI am officially running for President of the United States. #MakeAmericaGreatAgain

https://t.co/Ct0lNu7kz0 10,980

Bobby Jindal After Donald Trump spends six years in a POW camp, he can weigh in on John McCain's service 1,522

Chris ChristieA hat trick by New Jersey's own Carli Lloyd! What an amazing leader she has been for Team USA. Go

USA! Go Scarlet Knights! #jerseypride 422

Jim WebbJIM WEBB ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT http://t.co/H2iXNN9kdB -Staff

http://t.co/zdi7vM5YvQ 410

Scott Walker We should defund Planned Parenthood across the country. RT if you stand with me. -SW #Walker16 1,801

AFTER TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT.

Candidates (In announcement order, first wave)

Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Trump Period(June 16-July 19)

Tweet Share

s

Ted Cruz RETWEET if you agree that sanctuary cities are wrong! https://t.co/YYB1zkXePi 1,389

Rand PaulMy plan is the largest tax cut in history, returning nearly $2 trillion to American families in the first 10

years. https://t.co/A4qea61pn0 1,755

Hillary ClintonThe boys are right. We need everyone's help to get the planet moving in the right direction.

http://t.co/rNQSBSmgJ8 #action1D57,879

Marco RubioAmerica’s POWs deserve much better than to have their service questioned by the offensive rantings of

Donald Trump1,058

Bernie SandersThe Charleston church killings are a tragic reminder of the ugly stain of racism that still taints our nation.

http://t.co/3R4zKLqq2q 6,136

Ben CarsonI'm urging #Congress to eliminate every last dime of #PlannedParenthood funding! Join me, sign the

petition here: https://t.co/alZGjf8BE2 2,338

Carly FiorinaHere's my full statement on today's tragic and outrageous Planned Parenthood news.

https://t.co/cs8zUmUNNa 403

Mike HuckabeeThe Supreme Court can no more repeal the laws of nature and nature's God on marriage than it can the

laws of gravity.832

IS TRUMP LEADING?

Candidates(rank order)

SOV (%)

Donald Trump 41.5

Ted Cruz 11.4

Jeb Bush 10.9

Scott Walker 6.6

Marco Rubio 5.6

Rand Paul 5.3

Chris Christie 4.6

Rick Perry 3.1

Mike Huckabee 2.8

Ben Carson 2.2

Bobby Jindal 1.8

Lindsey Graham 1.8

Rick Santorum 1.3

Carly Fiorina 0.7

George Pataki 0.3

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Republican Candidates

March 15 - J uly 19, 2015

First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates

Candidates(rank order)

RTs (%)

George Pataki 2.00

Ben Carson 1.65

Carly Fiorina 0.72

Bobby Jindal 0.71

Rand Paul 0.59

Rick Santorum 0.56

Rick Perry 0.53

Mike Huckabee 0.37

Ted Cruz 0.35

Scott Walker 0.27

Marco Rubio 0.26

Lindsey Graham 0.22

Jeb Bush 0.18

Donald Trump 0.17

Chris Christie 0.11

IS TRUMP LEADING?

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March 15 - J uly 19

First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates

IS TRUMP LEADING?

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March 15-J uly 19

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First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates

First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates

GSPM ECHO RATING MARCH 15 – JULY 19, 2015

Candidates(In announcement order)

GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement and for the 123-day period)

Candidates(In announcement order)

GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement and for the 123-day period)

Ted Cruz 9 Martin O’Malley 1

Rand Paul 5 Lindsey Graham 1

Hillary Clinton 9 Lincoln Chafee 1

Marco Rubio 4 Rick Perry 2

Bernie Sanders 8 Jeb Bush 6

Ben Carson 3 Donald Trump 7

Carly Fiorina 1 Bobby Jindal 2

Mike Huckabee 2 Chris Christie 3

Rick Santorum 3 Jim Webb 1

George Pataki 1 Scott Walker 5

QUESTIONS?Graduate School of Political Management

@GSPMGWU

Michael Cornfield Lara BrownAssociate Professor Associate Professorcorn@gwu.edu

larambrown@gwu.edu

John BrandtMedia Relationsjohnbrandt@gwu.edu

Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs

Pete Eskew D.J. WaldowDirector of East Coast Ops. Director of Marketingpeskew@zignallabs.com djwaldow@zignallabs.com