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PEMODELAN TSUNAMI PEMODELAN TSUNAMI DALAM INADALAM INA--TEWSTEWS
Velly Asvaliantina, M.Eng.Sc
Balai Pengkajian Dinamika Pantai - BPPT
ObjectivesObjectives
PemodelanPemodelan tsunami tsunami dalamdalam TEWS :TEWS :SebagaiSebagai pendukungpendukung Tsunami warning BMG Tsunami warning BMG prepre--calculated calculated tsunami database (arrival time, H)tsunami database (arrival time, H)MendukungMendukung rencanarencana evakuasi/mitigasievakuasi/mitigasi bencanabencanaperhitungan/simulasiperhitungan/simulasi rendamanrendaman (run(run--up) up) berdasarkanberdasarkan data data historishistoris atauatau hipotetishipotetis..
informations for tsunami hazard mitigation activities (e.g: informations for tsunami hazard mitigation activities (e.g: vulnerability/Risk assessment, coastal/urban planning, etc.): tsvulnerability/Risk assessment, coastal/urban planning, etc.): tsunami unami innundation map, possible tsunami arrival time and runinnundation map, possible tsunami arrival time and run--up height.up height.
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Real Time Real Time Up DateUp Date
1010
3030
6060Tsunami Tsunami RecordedRecorded
No Recorded :No Recorded :CancellationCancellation NATIONAL TEWC
•• SeisSeis. At REITWC Record. At REITWC Record
•• Alarm TriggeredAlarm Triggered
•• Automatic CallAutomatic CallProcessProcess
REGIONAL TEWC
EqEq. Location. LocationMagnitudoMagnitudo
•• Alarm at NEITWCAlarm at NEITWC•• Automatic CallAutomatic Call
TSUNAMI TSUNAMI WARNINGWARNING
Interactive Interactive AnalysisAnalysis
DATA BASE• Historical• Simulation
•• PROCESSING/ AUTOMATICPROCESSING/ AUTOMATIC•• INTERACTIVE PROCESSINGINTERACTIVE PROCESSING
DATA BASE• Historical• Simulation
Real Time Real Time Up DateUp Date
•• WARNINGWARNINGfor National Scalefor National Scale
•• WARNINGWARNINGfor Regional Scalefor Regional Scale
Scenario of Tsunami Early Warning Process (Planed)
BUOYS BUOYS –– TIDE GAUGETIDE GAUGE’’S S MONITORINGMONITORING
For ConfirmationFor Confirmation
DEPUTI SISTEM DATA DAN INFORMASI - BMG
Time in m
inute
EarthquakeOccurence
TUGAS MASINGTUGAS MASING--MASING INSTITUSIMASING INSTITUSIDALAM TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM DI INDONESIADALAM TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM DI INDONESIA
SEISMOGRAPHSEISMOGRAPHRencanaRencana : 160; : 160; TerpasangTerpasang : 70 (: 70 (s/ds/d 2006)2006)
ACCELEROGRAPHACCELEROGRAPHRencanaRencana : 500; : 500; TerpasangTerpasang: 51 (: 51 (s/ds/d 2006)2006)
SYARATSYARATLapisanLapisan BatuanBatuan
BebasBebas GetaranGetaranKetersediaanKetersediaan ListrikListrik
JalanJalan masukmasukKeamananKeamanan
1. PENGOLAHAN OTOMATIS 1. PENGOLAHAN OTOMATIS
-- LokasiLokasi SumberSumber GempaGempa, , -- WaktuWaktu, , -- KekuatanKekuatan-- KedalamanKedalaman
3. DATA BASE3. DATA BASE-- SejarahSejarah TsunamiTsunami-- PraPra--kalkulasikalkulasi/ /
SimulasiSimulasiTsunamiTsunami
2. PROSES 2. PROSES CROSS CHECKCROSS CHECK
-- KekuatanKekuatan??-- LokasiLokasi ??-- Tsunami ?Tsunami ?
RISTEK, RISTEK, UniversitasUniversitas, , InstitusiInstitusi RisetRiset))--PemodelanPemodelan
--PembangunanPembangunan DatabaseDatabase--PEnelitianPEnelitian dandan PengembanganPengembangan
TransportasiTransportasi(Dep. Hub)(Dep. Hub)
KomunikasiKomunikasi((DepkominfoDepkominfo.).)JalanJalan, , TendaTenda
(Dep. PU)(Dep. PU)MakananMakanan & Air & Air
BersihBersih((KementerianKementerian
KesraKesra, , DepsosDepsos))KesehatanKesehatan, ,
SanitasiSanitasi((DepkesDepkes))
ManajemenManajemenResikoResiko
((DephankamDephankam))LainLain--lainlain
(BAKORNAS)(BAKORNAS)
(RISTEK, (RISTEK, DepdiknasDepdiknas, LIPI), LIPI)--EdukasiEdukasi PublikPublik--KesiapsiagaanKesiapsiagaan--LatihanLatihan EvakuasiEvakuasi TsunamiTsunami
PROSES DATAPROSES DATA MITIGASI, MITIGASI, REHABILITASI REHABILITASI
TANGGAP TANGGAP DARURATDARURAT
DISEMINASI INFO DISEMINASI INFO
PembangunanPembangunan KapasitasKapasitas/ / Capacity BuildingCapacity Building
PendidikanPendidikan KebencanaanKebencanaan
2. MONITOR GELOMBANG LAUT2. MONITOR GELOMBANG LAUT-- Tide Gauge (Tide Gauge (BakosurtanalBakosurtanal))
-- GPS GPS –– Buoys (BPPT) Buoys (BPPT)
2. DEFORMASI KERAK BUMI 2. DEFORMASI KERAK BUMI -- GPS (GPS (BakosurtanalBakosurtanal))
PEMASANGAN SENSOR DAN PEMASANGAN SENSOR DAN MONITOR GETARAN SEISMIKMONITOR GETARAN SEISMIK
Informasi Gempabumi
Tsunami Warning
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-- PUSKODAL POLRIPUSKODAL POLRI-- PUSKODAL TNIPUSKODAL TNI-- GUBERNURGUBERNUR--
BUPATIBUPATI--W.KOTAW.KOTA-- DEPSOSDEPSOS-- DEPKESDEPKES
-- BAKORNAS BAKORNAS --SATKORLAKSATKORLAK
-- STA TV STA TV -- RADIORADIO-- RADIO PANTAIRADIO PANTAI
-- ADPELADPEL-- PROVIDER GSM/ CDMAPROVIDER GSM/ CDMA
EWMS functional overview
l
k-1
x1,y0
x1,y1
x0,y0
x0,y1
k
1-l
Tsunami
Shore
f(x,y)
Hypocenter and Tsunami Source
M=6,5
M=6,8M=7,1
M=7,4M=7,7
M=8,0
Island
Database Structure (Tatehata, 1996)
Computation Concept Tsunami 2-D (Tatehata, 1996)
Precalculated Database Concept
Hypothetic tsunami sources distribution for whole Indonesian region (gray dot with interval 20 arc minutes and
blue dot with interval 40 arc minutes)
AcehAcehMaximum Inundation AreaMaximum Inundation Area
Inundation area within study area (D domain) in main land is 78.3 sq Km.
According to Satelite Image (Spot 5) :
According to Model:Inundation area within study area (D domain) in main land is 79.2 sq Km.
Source: UNOSAT
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Tsunami Run-up Selatan Bali
POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 & 5 M
POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 MKOTA PADANG SUMATRA BARAT
POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 & 5 M
State of the Art of Tsunami State of the Art of Tsunami Numerical ModelingNumerical Modeling
Existing Methods :Existing Methods :
–– TUNAMI (TUNAMI (Tohoku Univ.)Tohoku Univ.)Finite difference, leapFinite difference, leap--frog scheme, nested gridfrog scheme, nested gridDeep water propagation: linear Deep water propagation: linear longwavelongwave theory; theory; Inundation model: nonInundation model: non--linearlinearCalculated runCalculated run--up up under estimate under estimate
–– MOST (PMEL/NOAA)MOST (PMEL/NOAA)Finite differenceFinite difference
-- TSUNAWI (AWITSUNAWI (AWI))Finite elementFinite element
ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami): Web-based inundation modelhttp://www.nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/ComMIT
3.Current Status and Future Plan3.Current Status and Future Plan
Area has been simulated:Area has been simulated:–– Southern Bali (2006)Southern Bali (2006)–– AnyerAnyer, , SundaSunda StrStr. (2006. (2006--07) 07) –– Tl.BetungTl.Betung (2006(2006--2007)2007)–– BengkuluBengkulu (2006)(2006)–– AcehAceh (2005)(2005)–– PadangPadang (2005)(2005)–– PacitanPacitan / / PancerPancer
Future Plan:Future Plan:-- South Java & South Java & PainanPainan (JICA)(JICA)-- SundaSunda Strait (INAStrait (INA--NOAA)NOAA)-- CilacapCilacap (LIPI)(LIPI)-- Other prone area (Other prone area (NTT,NTB,etcNTT,NTB,etc))