PEERING BEHIND THE TRENDS IN WOMEN’S LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN MENA

R A G U I A S S A A D , U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I N N E S O T A A N D E R F

PEERING BEHIND THE TRENDS IN WOMEN’S LABOR FORCE

PARTICIPATION IN MENA

ERF Conference onGender Equality in the MENA Region

October 24-25, 2015

INTRODUCTION

• MENA’s very low levels of female LF participation are well established

• Out of the 20 countries with the lowest participation rates, 15 are MENA countries

REASONS FOR LOW FEMALE PARTICIPATION IN MENA

• Supply-side• Conservative gender

norms that emphasize women’s

• Primacy of the family and the domestic sphere

• The role of oil and oil-related revenues in perpetuating patriarchal family structures

• Neo-patriarchal state institutions, reinforced by oil-revenues

• Demand-side– Oil and oil-related

revenues distorting structure of economy away from female-intensive sectors

– Weak, dependent private sectors that are unwilling to assume the cost of women’s reproductive roles

– When demand for labor is high, jobs typically go to cheaper foreign workers

MAIN QUESTION

• Why are trends in female LF participation so flat, despite dramatic rise in education and falling gender gaps in education?• We know that historically, LF participation is positively and

strongly associated with educational attainment• Paradox: Why are rapidly rising rates of educational

attainment for women not translating into rapid increases in participation?

The gender gap in education as essentially closed in all three countries

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year

s of

Sch

oolin

g

Year of Birth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year of BirthMales Females

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year of Birth

Egypt TunisiaJordanAverage Years of Schooling by Year of Birth and Sex

Source: Egypt: ELMPS 2012, Jordan: JLMPS 2010, Tunisia: TLMPS 2014

The proportion of secondary and post-secondary graduates has risen rapidly among women in all three countries. Note the explosive rise in post-secondary attainment in Tunisia in recent years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1950 1970 1990Year of birth

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

1950 1970 1990Year of Birth

Secondary, FemalesPost-Secondary, FemalesSecondary, MalesPost-Secondary, Males

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1950 1970 1990Year of birth

Proportion Secondary and Post-Secondary Attainment by Year of Birth and Sex

Egypt TunisiaJordan


There is a very strong gradient of participation with educational attainment. Educated women participate at much higher rates than less educated ones in all three countries

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Jordan 2010Egypt 2012Tunisia 2014

Female Labor Force Participation by Educational Attainment


Despite rising educational attainment among women and a strong relationship between participation and education, participation rates are essentially stagnant in all three countries.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2000

-120

01-1

2002

-120

03-1

2004

-120

05-1

2006

-120

07-1

2008

-120

09-1

2010

-120

11-1

"As reported byCAPMAS"Linear Trend 2000-2006

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2000

-120

01-1

2002

-120

03-1

2005

-120

06-1

2007

-120

08-1

2009

-120

10-1

2011

-1As reported by DOS

Linear Trend 2000-2006

Egypt JordanFemale Labor Force Participation Ages, 15-64 (percentage).

Source: Egypt: CAPMAS, Labor Force Survey, Jordan : DoS, Employment and Unemployment Survey, Tunisia: INS, Enquete Nationale sur la Population et l’Emploi

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2006200720082009201020112012201320142015

As reported by INS

Linear Trend 2006-2014

Tunisia

SO WHAT EXPLAINS THIS PARADOX?

• Relationship between participation and educational attainment is weakening for women

• Educated women are facing a much more adverse labor market due to the decline in the probability of public sector employment

• Married women are more affected because of the inhospitable environment they face in the private sector

WEAKENING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PARTICIPATION IN EGYPT

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

199820062012

Female Labor Force Participation by Educational Attainment, Egypt

Source: ELMS 1998, and ELMPS 2006 and 2012

Source: Author’s calculations from ELMPS 2012, JLMPS 2010 and TLMPS 2014

The main reason for the drop in participation among educated women is the dramatic drop in public sector employment opportunities

11


The growth of private sector formal wage employment only partially made up for the slowdown in public hiring. And these private sector jobs are much less hospitable to women!

12


Private informal wage employment has also grown significantly, especially in Egypt. This represents an even less hospitable environment for educated women, especially married women.

13

Marriage is a watershed event in terms of women’s ability to remain in private wage employment, but this is not the case for public employment and non-wage employment, which continue to rise well after marriage

Egypt TunisiaJordan


Predicted Probability of Government Employment for a 30 year-old female university graduate over time

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6

2000 2005 2010 2015year

AlgeriaTunisiaJordanEgypt

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6

2000 2005 2010 2015year


Never Married Ever Married

0.0

5.1

.15

.2.2

5.3

2000 2005 2010 2015year


0.0

5.1

.15

.2.2

5.3

2000 2005 2010 2015year


Predicted Probability of Private Wage Employment for a 30 year-old female university graduate over time


Predicted Probability of Non-Wage Employment for a 30 year-old female university graduate over time


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4

2000 2005 2010 2015year


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4

2000 2005 2010 2015year


Predicted Probability of Unemployment for a 30 year-old female university graduate over time


0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6

2000 2005 2010 2015year


0.0

5.1

.15

.2.2

5.3

2000 2005 2010 2015year


Predicted Probability of Non-Participation for a 30 year-old female university graduate over time


0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6

2000 2005 2010 2015year


0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6

2000 2005 2010 2015year


CONCLUSIONS

• Supply side factors are strongly favoring increased women’s participation in the labor force

• Women’s participation is stagnating in MENA due to demand-side factors that adversely affected opportunity structures for women

• Deterioration of job quality in MENA has affected both educated men and women, but women are increasingly unable to reconcile the worsening conditions with their reproductive

• Under current labor demand conditions, private sector employers are currently unwilling to make the necessary adjustments to create a more hospitable environment for women

PEERING BEHIND THE TRENDS IN WOMEN’S LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN MENA

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