Peak Oil and Climate Change – the 2 great oversights…. A History Lesson… Adapted from a...
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Transcript of Peak Oil and Climate Change – the 2 great oversights…. A History Lesson… Adapted from a...
Peak Oil and Climate Peak Oil and Climate Change – the 2 great Change – the 2 great oversights….oversights….
A History Lesson…Adapted from a presentation by Jeremy Leggett.
1930
Peak of discovery in US 48
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5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Disc
over
y G
b
010002000300040005000600070008000900010000
Prod
uctio
n kb
/d
USA 48
production
1956 - Hubbert predicts US production peak in 1971
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gb
World
1965 - World peak of discovery
1973 The first oil crisis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Disc
over
y G
b
010002000300040005000600070008000900010000
Prod
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USA 48
production
1973 – US Oil Production Peaks.
1978 – The Second Oil Crisis.
1981 – Crisis over…
0200400600800
100012001400
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Gb
Middle East Rest of World
1985 – the doubts begin…
1989
Jim Hansen of NASA: “It is time to say global
warming is here.”
1989
Authoritative early warning
1990 “Race to save our world”
1992
1997 - BP quits the carbon club
1997 Kyoto
1998 – Campbell and 1998 – Campbell and Lahererre publish ‘The End Lahererre publish ‘The End of Cheap Oil’.of Cheap Oil’.
2001
AUGUST AUGUST 2003 2003 EUROPEAEUROPEAN N HEATWAVHEATWAVE E anomaly relative anomaly relative to late 19to late 19thth centurycenturyHadley Centre
2003 - Summer in the city
2004
2005
G8 in UK
2005 - Katrina
Second energy crisis 1979
to 1981
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
$80
$60
$40
$20
?
1
2
34 5
6
prices of the day
2003 prices
Pea
k oi
l
Dep
art
ure
s oC
fro
m t
he 1
96
1 –
19
90
avg
e.
Average temperatures from a range of IPCC energy scenarios short of deep
cuts in fossil fuel use
Threshold of severe danger: 2oC above pre-industrial average temperature (EU
target not to exceed)
The Impact of KyotoThe Impact of Kyoto
How will it affect the How will it affect the UK?UK?
An Increasing Problem.An Increasing Problem.
Climate change and Peak Climate change and Peak Oil.Oil.
Some Useful WebsitesSome Useful Websites
www.energybulletin.netwww.energybulletin.net
www.theoildrum.comwww.theoildrum.com
www.livingonthecusp.orgwww.livingonthecusp.org
www.powerswitch.org.ukwww.powerswitch.org.uk
www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitionculture.org