Peak IT: why digital may stop delivering value
105
-
Upload
jonas-soederstroem -
Category
Business
-
view
3.600 -
download
1
Transcript of Peak IT: why digital may stop delivering value
Angry, stressed, frustrated with IT
3400 2012
M T W T F
Arbeidsmiljøloven4 kapitlet
Arbeidstakerne skal gis nødvendig opplæring for å sette seg inn i systemene, og de skal medvirke ved utformingen av dem.
Kapittel 4, § 4-2
Arbeidstakerne skal gis nødvendig opplæring for å sette seg inn i systemene, og de skal medvirke ved utformingen av dem.
Kapittel 4, § 4-2
Arbeidstakerne skal gis nødvendig opplæring for å sette seg inn i systemene, og de skal medvirke ved utformingen av dem.
Kapittel 4, § 4-2
USER-CENTERED
DESIGN:
IT’S THE LAW
Coins, notes, SMS, cards, app, PayPal
Coins, notes, SMS, cards, app, PayPal
What if digital stops delivering value?Jonas Söderström • InUse ExperienceBetalingsformidling 201511 mars 2015
or
Peak IT?Ju
dith
/ Fl
ickr
are we approaching
@jonas_blind_hen@inuse_swe
#betfor15 #peakIT
Digital funktion och passion
Stockholm • Göteborg • Malmö
FUTURE(Back to the)
Now
vern
hart
/ Flic
kr
vern
hart
/ Flic
kr
One strong metaphor for
what’s happening:
Moore’slaw
Moore himself!
A new chip!
But let’s get backto the 60’ies
They promised not just flying cars, but AFFLUENCE...
1968: Sweden in 200024 of the most in!uential scientists, entreprenuers
3 months vacation60.000 SEK/month4 hrs working day
60.000 SEK/monthIn 1968 value
482.226 SEK/monthIn 2014 value
But, well ...
Financial Times Oct 26, 2014
Productivity falling
Economist Oct 4, 2014
A slowdown in technical progress is the reason usually given for this
progressive deceleration in productivity growth.
”
”Financial Times Oct 26, 2014
?
The s-shaped
curve
Law of diminishing
returns
Antibiotics
Resistance
Motorways
Traffic jams
After 5 years of construction to widen I-405, traffic is slightly
slower than beforeThe "fundamental rule" of traffic. Vox, Oct 23, 2014
Peak X
Have we reached PEAK IT?
How hard can it be?
””
...for example, a payroll system?
2013
20122 757 tim övertid
2011
1997 – 2010
2014
1999 – 2014
2010–2015
2003 – 2013
...
Recently:Three of the biggest
Swedish banksditched efforts to build
new platforms, with total losses of well over 10 billion SEK.
from 145 to 313 click
With new system
Renew weapons license:
mean 2 hrs 52 mWrite report, one case of shoplifting:
Why?
Alt 1: Everyone is an idiot
Alt 2: Exponentially
increasing complexity
4 6
+1
5 10
+4+1
+1
6 15
+5+1
Karolinska University HospitalLibrary, 18 Feb 2014
110 employees
117 systems
117 118
+1 +6903
§
EU
The EVIL TWIN of Metcalfe’s law
difference between theory and real-world
results
slowdown, caused by system effects
/ Flickr
BEGINNING OF CURVE
PEAK
?Future?
Have we reached PEAK IT?
Government?Bank?
Coolstartup! Disruption!
Digitalisation affords
bureaucracy
”simplify”
We don’t use IT to simplify anymore.
Programming the ENIAC, late 1940ies
We did...
Joneal Williams-Daw at the UNIVAC 1, 1953
Norc, Columbia University’s Watson Lab, 1954
but now ...
145 ➡ 313 clicks
We use IT to do new things.We use IT to
do new things.
Digitalisation drives
complexity.
... an exploding middelman economy.
Digitalisation has created ...
”Software is eating
the world”Marc Andressen
Everything that eats, also produces
excrement.
No more highways
Build smaller things
New York High Line
Copenhagen bicycle bridge
Thanks!Mail:[email protected]
Twitter:@Jonas_Blind_Hen
Web:inuse.sejavlaskitsystem.sestupidsystem.se
Slideshare:Jonas_inUse
