Peace in Ukraine

by: Sarah Huffman, Stephanie Marengere, Liz Kittner, Regina McCullough and Ruben Agüero

Quinteros

Ukraine Facts:

Population: 45.49 Million(2013 World Bank)

Capital: Kiev

Official Language: Ukrainian

Size: 233,013 sq. miles(Largest country in Europe)

GDP (per capita): $7,989

Ethnic Groups:● Ukrainians: 77.8%● Russians: 17.3%● Others/Unspecified: 4.9% (Belarusian,

Moldovan, Crimean Tatar, Bulgarian, Hungarian, Romanian, Polish, Jewish)

Major Export: GrainWikipedia: Fast Facts, Dec, 2015.

Reporters Without Borders, 2015. RSF.org.

In 2008, Ukraine was ranked #87 of 168 countries, its best World Press Freedom Index rating. According to Reporters Without Borders, it is currently the worst period in Ukraine’s history since its independence in 1991. The Abuses Score “reflects the intensity of violence and harassment to which journalists and other news and information providers were subjected during the year.”

Historical Context

17th-18th Century-1940s● Mid-18th Century: Ukraine emerges as a nation● Austrian-Hungarian Empire and Tsarist Empire

○ Austrian-Hungarians ruled Western Ukraine

■ Allowed Western Ukraine more social freedoms

■ Encouraged Western Ukraine to engage politically

○ The Tsarist (Russian) Empire ruled Eastern Ukraine

■ Discouraged national Ukrainian identity

■ Banned Ukrainian from being spoken in Eastern Ukraine

■ Industrialized their territory in the East

● 1917: Ukraine declares independence● 1921: Ukraine annexed into the USSR

○ Parts of Western Ukraine were controlled by Poland and Czechoslovakia

○ Forced assimilation over all Ukraine

17th-18th Century-1940s● 1920s: Ukrainization

○ USSR supported Ukrainian identity for a brief time

○ Ended when Stalin began perceiving Ukrainian nationalism as a threat

● 1932-1933: Holodomor○ Forced famines implemented by Stalin in order to eradicate Ukrainian nationalism

○ Most food was allotted to industrial areas, leaving the agricultural communities in the West

starving.

● 1939: Western and Eastern Ukraine United● 1941-1944: Nazi Occupation

○ Mass execution sites set up

■ Babi Yar in Kiev

■ Targeted Communists, minority groups, and Ukrainian nationalists

● 1944: Mass Expulsion of Tatars○ Done by Russia in order to give USSR officials a place to retire

1950s-1990s● 1953: Stalin Dies, Khrushchev Takes Over

○ Situation in Ukraine improved slightly

○ They still could not express independence, political autonomy, or cultural autonomy and there

were crackdowns on religious expression

● 1954: Khrushchev Gifts Crimea to Ukraine● 1980s: Movements for Trade Liberalization and Capitalist Markets as well as

Political Transparency ○ Policies called Perestroika and Glasnost were implemented under Mikhail Gorbachev

● 1980s: Tatars are allowed to return to their homeland

1990s-Early 2000s● 1991: USSR Falls

○ Ukraine voted for its own independence with 90% in favor

○ Crimea voted 54% for Ukrainian independence

● After the USSR fell, Ukraine remained divided along geographic lines○ Disagreements about what national history was led to division on what the different regions

were taught

■ Pro-Russian sentiments vs. Pro-Ukrainian sentiments

○ Depended on Russia for national resources, pro-russians had more money, better educations,

job prospects

○ There was a job and resource disparity between youths who grew up in USSR and those who

grew up in the Polish and Czech controlled Western Ukraine

1990s-Early 2000s● Early 2000s: Ukraine is functioning independently, but with major structural

flaws○ Struggled to implement democratic ideals

● 2000: Murder of Georgiy Gongadze○ Gongadze was an investigative journalist focusing on freedom of the press as well as reduction

of corruption. By November 28th, details were released implicating the involvement of

president Kuchma and top officials in his death; by December, mass protests began, with

movements such as “Ukraine without Kuchma” and “For Truth”

Current State of Peacelessness

Recent Conflicts and EventsMain Events:

● Orange Revolution (2004)○ Resulted After Fraudulent Election of

Viktor Yanukovych

○ Movement for Democratic Change

● Euromaidan Revolution (2013)○ Occurred After Yanukovych Attempted

to Join Customs Union Rather than the

EU

● Annexation of Crimea (2014)○ Occurred soon after Yanukovych

resigned in February 2014

Presidencies:

● Viktor Yushchenko (2005-2010)○ Pro-Western President Elected After

Orange Revolution

● Viktor Yanukovych (2010-2014)○ Pro-Russian President who was Elected

Despite Events of the Orange

Revolution

● Oleksandr Turchynov (2014)○ Brief President After Ousting of

Yanukovych

● Petro Poroshenko (2014-Current)

Intra-State Direct Violence● Annexation of Crimea

○ Russian-backed Separatists versus Pro-Kiev Forces

■ The UN Estimates 12,000 Russian Soldiers are Fighting Alongside Separatist Factions in

the East

○ 8,000 people have died since Ukraine declared “anti-terrorist operations” in April 2014

● As a Result, Many Internally Displaced People: 1,505,600 (2015)● Euromaidan Revolution

○ Police Abuse and Torture During Demonstrations

● Ethnic Tensions○ Pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatars are Major Target of Violence

● Attempts for Cease-Fires Such as Minsk Agreement

Oppression of Human Rights● Political Struggles for Democracy

○ Imprisonment of Former Prime Minister Tymoshenko in 2011

○ Rada Elections were Reported to be Corrupt in 2012

○ Impunity After Police Abuses in Euromaidan

■ Current President Poroshenko has not Indicted Police Officers

● Separatist Forces Committing Abductions○ Targets Local Administration, Pro-Ukrainian Activists, and Journalists

● Blocks to Humanitarian Aid from Separatist-Controlled Regions○ Goal is to Block “Pro-West” Agencies

○ Update: As of November 25, blocks to humanitarian aid from UN agencies have been lifted and

access has been granted to non government-controlled areas in the Eastern Ukrainian region

Levels of Perceived Administrative Corruption

Transparency International, 2013.

Health and Education● World Health Organization (WHO) Urges Ukraine to Declare State of

Emergency○ Polio Outbreaks

● Lack of Healthcare and Poor Health Education○ Very Few Vaccinations

○ Lack of “Herd Immunity”

● Health Spending○ 7.8% of GDP Goes Towards Health Expenditures (2013) compared to 17.1% of GDP in the

United States (2013)

● Starkly Different Historical Accounts Regionally○ Western Regions Teach Pro-Ukrainian History

○ Eastern Regions Teach Pro-Russian History

Economic Inequity● Natural Gas Dependency Concerns

○ Recent News: Ukraine Declared to No Longer Buy Natural Gas from Russia (Ann. 12/1/2015)

● Loss of Power in Crimea ○ Recent News: Crimean Power Blackout Occurred 11/30/15. State Electric Company Reports

Shellings.

● GNI Per Capita: $3,560○ Lower Than Other Developing Countries in Europe and Central Asia where Average is $6,864

● Human Trafficking ○ Poor Economic Situation Leaves Vulnerable to Organized Crime and Human Trafficking

Future Vision of Peace“the presence of safety and security, allowing for the capability of self-fulfillment for all”

State-International Relations● International and Regional

Vision: Respectful relations

between Ukraine and Russia

and peaceful regional

cohabitation.

● Cultural Vision: Respect for

the national identity and

citizenship of the Ukrainian

(and Russian) people

● Political Vision: Stable

democracy recognized by all

international actors as an

independent state

● Economic Vision: No longer

attempt to gain economic

aggregate wealth. Rather

focus is on resource

independence and the ability

to provide for the needs of all

citizens

State-Citizen RelationshipPolitical Vision:

● Assurance of human rights to the citizenry from the government

● Ability of all citizens to express themselves through the democratic political structure which allows for representation of diverse ethnicities

● Equal access to health and educational services

● well-rounded health and political education offered

Verkhovna Rada-the current Parliament of Ukraine

State-Citizen RelationshipCultural Vision● Multiethnic nation with a shared

common identity and appreciation for cultural plurality

● Collective history which includes diverse perspectives in which no one feels ignored

● Celebration of diverse self-determined ethnicities

Picture of Ukranian cultural dance festival held in 2013

Economic Vision

● Ukraine has economic independence from outside actors (such as the IMF)

● Government provides the opportunity for individuals to achieve self-fulfillment through human capacity building policies such as offering a living wage

● People should be able to search for work without threats to their health and safety

Citizen-Citizen RelationshipDirect vision: There are

no longer militant groups

and the Eastern region is

completely reintegrated

into society

Citizen-Citizen Relationship● Political: Citizens are well-informed and politically engaged● Cultural:

○ Trust and interregional care among all citizens

○ Interpersonal celebration and respect of diverse ethnicities

● Economic: Citizens are genuinely concerned for general economic equity and provision for one another’s basic human needs

Strategy to Achieve Vision

Important Actors● International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs)

● Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)

● International Governmental Organizations (IGOs)

○ UN

● Russia

● Ukraine

○ Government

○ Separatists

Stage I

1. Peaceful Settlement (IGOs, Russia, Ukraine)

a. DDR (Disarmament, demobilization, and

reintegration).

i. Promise of self-determination opportunity

(referendum) - ethno-federal state

ii. Reintegration - provision of jobs

2. Humanitarian Assistance (NGOs)

a. Emphasis on “relief-to-development”

i. Incorporate humanitarian assistance (short

term)

with development (long term).

Stage II1. Democratization (IGOs and NGOs)

a. Rule of Law - Training programs for government officials - OSCE

b. NGOs and civil society

2. Peace Education (Ukraine, NGOs)

a. Reconciliation through creation of a cohesive national history that incorporates Western and

Eastern historical accounts and ideologies

b. Track II Diplomacy (NGOs)

i. Creation of trust among Ukrainians for cohesive history and independent peace initiatives

3. Sustainable Economic Development with focus on Equity (Ukraine)

a. Trade partner diversification and Growth & development of alternate energy sources

b. Avoid relying on external loans like IMF’s or Russia

c. Development of human capital

d. Increased GDP/capita leads to a civil society

Stage III1. International Law/Formal Diplomacy (IGOs, Russia, Ukraine)

a. Respect existing international law - Russian cooperation

2. Preventive Diplomacy (IGOs)

a. Early Warning System - UN

i. fact-finding

ii. observation missions

3. Self-Determination/Ethnofederalism (Ukrainian government)

a. Referendums - full-secession, ethno-federal state, or no secession

Critiques

Critiques- Assumption that Russia will be willing to relinquish some degree of control

within the region - Appeasement of Russia from the other 4 Security Powers in the UN

- Assumption that Russia will continue to engage in peaceful relations with Ukraine throughout the peacebuilding and into the future

- Assumption that Separatists would be willing to disarm due to the future promise of ethnofederalism

- Humanitarian Assistance - complications with Separatist willingness

Critiques- Specificity of Democratization

- No matter the type of democracy, whether parliamentary or bicameral, the risk remains that the

ethnic/nationalist majority (Ukrainians) will access power then simply never relinquish that

power

- Natural undertaking of a more Westernized idea of peace- Although we worked to take into account Eastern ideologies and various ethnicities and

nationalities, we cannot help but to favor Western ideologies

Works Cited● Amnesty International. (2015). Amnesty International Report 2014/15: The State of the World’s

Human Rights (pp. 382–386). Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/europe-and-central-asia/ukraine/● Aregawi, Hermela. August 7, 2015. “Is the West to Blame for Starting a New Cold War?” Published: Al Jazeera America. ● British Broadcasting Network. November 30. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34967093.● Central Intelligence Agency. (2015, September 15). The World Factbook. Retrieved September.

21, 2015, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html● Diuk, N. (2012). The Next Generation in Russia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan: Youth, Politics,

Identity, and Change. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. Retrieved from http://consort.library.denison.edu/record=b4109949~S6● Kuzio, Taras. "Nationalism, Identity and Civil Society in Ukraine: Understanding the Orange Revolution." Communist and Post-Communist

Studies 43.3 (2010): 287. Web.● The World Bank. (2014). Ukraine Data. Retrieved September 21, 2015, from

http://data.worldbank.org/country/ukraine● The Associated Press. 2015. “WHO Urges Ukraine to Declare State of Emergency amid Polio Outbreak.” CTV News. December 1.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/who-urges-ukraine-to-declare-state-of-emergency-amid-polio-outbreak-1.2681644.● Menon, R., & Rumer, E. (2015). Conflict in Ukraine: the Unwinding of the Post-Cold War

Order. Massachusetts Institute of Technology.BBC. 2015. “Crimea Power Blackout: Russia Accuses Ukraine of Sabotage.”● "Ukraine: UN Humanitarian Agencies Step up Aid Deliveries as Bitter Winter Takes Hold." UN News Center. November 25, 2015. Accessed

December 2, 2015. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52657#.Vl5edd-rRPM.

Image Bibliographyhttp://eurasiangeopolitics.com/2015/08/18/what-to-make-of-the-latest-surge-in-violence-in-the-donbas/