Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Yardeni Research ... 2006...

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Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Yardeni Research, Inc. May 2, 2018 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

Transcript of Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Yardeni Research ... 2006...

Page 1: Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Yardeni Research ... 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5 10 15 20 25

Global Index Briefing:MSCI Forward P/Es

Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 2, 2018

Dr. Ed Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Page 2: Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es Yardeni Research ... 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5 10 15 20 25

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

May 2, 2018 / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Major Regions 3-4Advanced Economies 5-6Major Europe Economies 7Emerging Economies 8-9Countries A-Z 10-32

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

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MSCI FORWARD P/E(weekly)

Forward P/E*

EMU (14.0)Emerging Markets (11.8)

US (16.5)

Japan (13.3)UK (13.7)

Capped at 20

yardeni.com

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 1.

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FORWARD P/E: WORLD MSCI

Forward P/E*All Country World (14.9)EAFE (14.1)Emerging Markets (11.8)US (16.5)

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 2.

Major Regions

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FORWARD P/E: WORLD MSCI

Forward P/E*All Country World (14.9)US (16.5)

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: MSCI.

Figure 3.

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FORWARD P/E: WORLD MSCI EX-US

Forward P/E*All Country World Ex US (13.5)US (16.5)

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

Major Regions

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FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI

Forward P/E*EMU (14.0)Japan (13.3)United Kingdom (13.7)United States (16.5)

yardeni.com

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 5.

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FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI

Forward P/E*Canada (14.1)EAFE (14.1)United States (16.5)

yardeni.com

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 6.

Advanced Economies

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FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI

Forward P/E*Germany (13.0)Japan (13.3)United Kingdom (13.7)United States (16.5)

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 7.

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FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI

Forward P/E*EAFE (14.1)Europe (13.8)Japan (13.3)

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 8.

Advanced Economies

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FORWARD P/E: EUROZONE MSCIForward P/E*

France (14.6)Germany (13.0)Italy (12.8)Spain (12.3)

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* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 9.

Major Europe Economies

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FORWARD P/E: EMERGING ECONOMIES MSCI

Forward P/E*Emerging Markets (11.8)EM Asia (12.0)EM Eastern Europe (7.1)EM Latin America (13.5)

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 10.

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FORWARD P/E: BRIC MSCI COMPOSITES

Forward P/E*Brazil (12.2)Russia (5.7)India (18.1)China (12.2)

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 11.

Emerging Economies

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FORWARD P/E: EMERGING ECONOMIES MSCIForward P/E*

China (12.2)India (18.1)Indonesia (15.4)Korea (8.7)Taiwan (13.3)Turkey (7.1)

yardeni.com

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 12.

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FORWARD P/E: EMERGING ECONOMIES MSCI

Forward P/E*Argentina (12.3)Brazil (12.2)Mexico (15.8)

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 13.

Emerging Economies

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

ARGENTINA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (12.3)

Figure 14.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

AUSTRALIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.0)

Figure 15.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

AUSTRIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (11.3)

Figure 16.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

BELGIUM MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (17.0)

Figure 17.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

BRAZIL MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (12.2)

Figure 18.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

CANADA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (14.1)

Figure 19.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

CHILE MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (17.6)

Figure 20.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

CHINA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (12.2)

Figure 21.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.7)

Figure 22.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

DENMARK MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (17.3)

Figure 23.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

EGYPT MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (12.1)

Figure 24.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

FINLAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (16.6)

Figure 25.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

FRANCE MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (14.6)

Figure 26.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

GERMANY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (13.0)

Figure 27.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

GREECE MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (13.6)

Figure 28.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

HONG KONG MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.4)

Figure 29.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

HUNGARY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (10.4)

Figure 30.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

INDIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (18.1)

Figure 31.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

INDONESIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.4)

Figure 32.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

IRELAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.2)

P/E capped at 40 due to extreme values.

Figure 33.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

ISRAEL MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (10.7)

Figure 34.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

ITALY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (12.8)

Figure 35.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

JAPAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (13.3)

Figure 36.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

KOREA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (8.7)

Figure 37.

Countries A-Z

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

MALAYSIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (16.1)

Figure 38.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20196

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

6

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

MEXICO MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.8)

Figure 39.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

NETHERLANDS MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (16.1)

Figure 40.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201910

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

NEW ZEALAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (21.1)

Figure 41.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20194

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

NORWAY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (14.3)

Figure 42.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

5

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15

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

PAKISTAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (9.5)

Figure 43.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

PERU MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (14.6)

Figure 44.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

10

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

PHILIPPINES MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (16.3)

Figure 45.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

POLAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (11.3)

Figure 46.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

10

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

PORTUGAL MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (17.6)

Figure 47.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

RUSSIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (5.7)

Figure 48.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

10

15

20

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

SINGAPORE (FREE) MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (14.0)

Figure 49.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20196

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

SOUTH AFRICA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (14.7)

Figure 50.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

SPAIN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (12.3)

Figure 51.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

SWEDEN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.8)

Figure 52.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

SWITZERLAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (16.4)

Figure 53.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

TAIWAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (13.3)

Figure 54.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20194

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

THAILAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (15.5)

Figure 55.

Countries A-Z

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

TURKEY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (7.1)

Figure 56.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20195

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* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

UNITED KINGDOM MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (13.7)

Figure 57.

Countries A-Z

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