Paul Sissons CEO, GTI Media. Session 1: The economic forecast The macro economy and impact on...

Paul SissonsCEO, GTI Media

Session 1: The economic forecastThe macro economy and impact on markets

Session 2: The student research The evolvement of early career skills in the light of the current economic

climate

Session 3: The Careers Services overview

Session 4: The graduate recruiter confidence

snapshot

Session 1:The economic forecast

Bryan Finn

UK economy: GDP growth

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Annual % change

UK economy and recruitment advertising

-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

GDP Recruit GDP Trend

World economy: major economies

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

UK US Eurozone

Annual % change

World economy: current world GDP growth rates

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Annual % change

World economy: oil prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

US$ per barrel

UK economy: share prices

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000FTSE 100

UK economy: manufacturing

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%Annual % change

UK economy: service sector output

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Annual % change

UK economy: retail sales

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Annual % change

UK economy: consumer confidence

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Balance

UK economy: service sector confidence

-55-50

-45-40-35

-30-25-20

-15-10-5

05

10

152025

3035

Balance

UK economy: inflation

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

CPI RPI

Annual % change

UK economy: Sterling effective exchange rate

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Index 2005 = 100

UK economy: house prices

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Annual % change

UK economy: value of mortgage lending

-72%-65%-59%-52%-46%-40%-33%-27%-20%-14%-8%-1%5%

12%18%24%31%37%44%50%Annual % change

UK economy: employment

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Annual change 0000s

UK economy: total job vacancies

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

UK economy: job vacancies by sector March 2009

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Annual % change

Future prospects: GDP forecast for 2009

-5.0%

-4.5%

-4.0%

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

Annual % change

Future prospects: GDP forecast for 2010

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Annual % change

UK economy and total recruitment advertising

-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

GDP Recruit GDP Trend

World economy: world GDP growth forecasts 2009

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%Annual % change

Our survey sample

• 1,504 survey participants from the TARGETjobs database

• 33.4% were in their final year of university, the rest in their first, second or penultimate year

• 31% male and 69% female• 20% from a BaME background• 69.7% aged 21 and under• 35% with 300 or more UCAS points• 58% attend a pre-1992 ‘old’ university• Survey open 9th to 20th April 2009

Feedback and findings relating to employment

confidence from those participants in their final year at

university

How confident do you feel about securing a graduate job when you leave university?

Final years

How do these results compare with our last survey in February 2009?

Final years

Do you feel more or less confident about securing a graduate job now than when you started your final year?

Final years

Have you seen any effects of the credit crunch in your job hunting?

Final years

April 2009

-28.5

Graduate Employment Index: by RegionApril 2009

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

East M

idla

nds

East o

f Engl

and

Lond

on

North

East

North

wes

t

North

ern Ir

elan

d

Scotla

nd

South

Eas

t

South

Wes

t

Wale

s

West

Mid

land

s

Yorks

hire a

nd Hum

bersi

deUK

Graduate Employment Index: by Sector April 2009

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Accounta

ncy e

tc

Banking o

r fin

ancial

serv

ices

Enginee

ring o

r indust

rial

Inve

stm

ent b

ank o

r fund m

anager

s

Construct

ion te

c

Law fi

rm

Public s

ecto

r

Consultin

g or b

usines

s serv

ice

Transp

ort or l

ogist

ics

Retail IT Oil

FMCG

Energy,

wat

er o

r util

ity c

ompan

y

Chemic

al o

r phar

mac

eutical

Insu

rance

Telec

omm

unicat

ions

Others

All sec

tors

Session 2: The student researchThe evolvement of early career skills in the

light of the current economic climateNeil Harrison, TMP Worldwide

Our survey sample

• 645 survey participants from the TARGETjobs databases• 70% 24 and under• 399 in their final year at university, 246 have graduated

and are in their first/second job post university• 44% male and 56% female• 32% from a BaME background• 66% with 300 or more UCAS points• 71% spent the majority of their secondary education in a

state school• 66% study or studied at a pre-1992 university• 77% of final years without a job offer to date• Survey open 6th – 21st April 2009

What will you do if you can’t find a graduate job?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Goingtravelling

Furtherstudies

Get a localjob

Non paidwork

Generallylook to

enhance myCV

Don't know

How will you build up your skills base if you don’t get a formal graduate job offer?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Voluntarywork

Non-paidwork

Furtherstudy

Local job Haven'tthoughtabout it

Don't know

Let’s look more closely at those who will look at further study to build up their skills base

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Private schooleducation

State schooleducation

Knowing what I do now about graduate jobs prospects, I would still have gone to university 3-4 years ago

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree

Those people agreeing that they would still go to university if they knew what the jobs market was going to be like 4 years prior

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Without a joboffer

With a job offer

The skills debate – it’s not going away:

‘Today’s labour market is bringing home to students the need to take

responsibility for developing the skills and attributes that will make them

employable’David Lammy

Which workplace skills are important in the current economy cf a strong economy?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Communicating confidently

Team working

Commercial focus

Customer relations

Working autonomously

Entrepreneurial

Ability to take effective risks

In the current economic climate, the ability simply to survive is key in the modern workplace

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


The ability to get your head down and ride out the recession is a key workplace skill

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Effective risk taking is becoming a dirty word. People are becoming fixated on survival and ignore the

importance of challenging the norm. They value customer skills above all –

which is laudable – but does this suggest bunker mentality of ‘what we

have, we hold’?

And is this flying in the face of what employers are looking for:

‘Graduates should be willing to learn & develop, bring new ideas and contribute to future growth’

Richard Lambert

The investment an organisation continues to make in graduate skills is a major factor in how I rate them

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


If organisations continue to invest in skills development they will be far likelier to hold onto their people when things improve

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


I would be sceptical about those organisations claiming not to be reducing their investment in skills right now

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


Early career graduates

My employer has cut back on skills development in the light of the recession

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


How do you respond to your employer cutting back on skills investment?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

It's a sign ofthe times

They arebeing

financiallyprudent

It reducesengagement

It affects mylong term

career devlpt

It makes itmore likely I

will leave

The evolution of skills within the modern workplace

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Ability to develprof compets

Ability to formclient relats

Entrepren

Networking

Internal relats

Risk taking

Most impt skill in the current climate

Skills now more impt to your employer

Skills now less impt to my employer

I would feel more engaged and enthused by an organisation continuing to invest in my skills

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


If the economy picked up tomorrow, I would look for a new job immediately

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


In looking for a new job, the amount of investment in skills would play a key role in which organisation I would join

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Two things to leave you with:

• 40% of your early career professional would jump ship if they had the chance

• We are creating an employment environment in which risk is viewed negatively

Session 3:View from the campus – the skills agenda

Anne-Marie Martin

The sample• All Heads of Careers Services at Russell Group

InstitutionsBirmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow , Imperial, King's, Leeds, Liverpool, LSE, Manchester, Newcastle upon Tyne, Nottingham, Oxford, Sheffield, Southampton, UCL, Warwick

• All Heads of Careers Services at 94 Group InstitutionsBath, Birkbeck, Durham, East Anglia, Essex, Exeter, Goldsmiths, Royal Holloway, Lancaster, Leicester, Loughborough, Queen Mary, Reading, St Andrews, SOAS, Surrey, Sussex, Warwick, York

• AGCAS Officers

The survey

• Careers Service involvement with the skills agenda – At Government and regional level– At institutional policy level – Operationally with students and graduates

The Context• There have been many government initiatives intent on encouraging

Universities to align more closely with business and students to acquire employment related skills.

• Ex Polytechnics and Colleges of Higher Education were the first to introduce the teaching of employability skills into their curriculum.

• Older Universities, especially those that are described as research-led have been slower to respond.

• Research led institutions have, however, always been committed to the idea that the academic experience is more than attending lectures and gaining knowledge. They have been keen to encourage employability without diluting essential academic freedoms and rigour.

• This research uncovers a huge range of endeavours throughout the sector not only to improve the opportunities to develop skills, but also to help students assess their skills and articulate them to employers.

What’s going on at Government Level

“I was asked to give evidence to Alan Milburn’s / Cabinet Office Fair Access to the Professions Panel. As a result of that my team is working with the Cabinet Office to

produce a tool kit for employers considering taking an intern.”

•The role of Universities in training individuals for the workplace has been the subject of a library of government reports and investigations.

•Both Government and Universities now consult and listen to the views of careers advisers.

•80 Institutions and AGCAS contributed to the recent CBI/UUK report, ‘Future Fit’, which highlighted progress made in skills delivery.

•Represented on or contributed to DIUS Higher Skills Steering Group led by David Lammy; DIUS Graduate Employment Forum which meets monthly and is advising on the establishment of graduate internships; and UK Skills Commission consultation.

•AGCAS Liaison Officers for all Sector Skills Councils ensure there is effective communication between careers advisers and the industries represented by the SSC.

•HEFCE have pumped £50M into Universities via Careers Services under the Economic Challenge Investment Fund.

Regionally is where it’s at• Almost all Regional Development Agencies are working with Universities to increase

the number of work placements and internships both for current students and, in response to the current recession, recent graduates.

• General schemes include: – Graduates for Business in the SW develops graduate employability skills through work

placement and a 3 day ‘graduate directions’ course.

– Yorkshire and Humberside giving 2/3rd wage subsidy to employers offering internships. Each of the 10 regional Universities will have 20 to 30 internships specifically for graduates. Skills development and training will be in integral part of the scheme.

• Others are focused on particular regional skills needs or disciplines – ‘Wired Sussex’ is developing skills in the digital media sector.

– GradEast is helping small and medium sized enterprises employ and use graduates more effectively.

– The SE Physics network summer studentship scheme offers funded work experience and skill development for Physics and Astronomy students and graduates.

– AGCAS Scotland Financial Skills Gateway will enhance the development and management of skills within Scotland in line with future industry needs.

Institutions • Employability Strategies

“My institution’s key ambitions are to increase the proportion of students exposed to work-based learning, enhance provision for skills development &

increase employer involvement in curriculum delivery”

• Learning and Teaching Strategies and Curriculum Reviews “I was fully involved in the review of the curriculum. I took soundings from all our major employers to identify skills gaps in our students. This has resulted in a new cutting edge course, which will be compulsory for all students from

2010, that aims to both broaden the thinking of the undergraduates and integrate key learning skills”

• Graduate attributes. Both skills and a set of desirable attitudinal dispositions.

• Employability Awards/Skills certificates/Credits in recognition of the development of employment-related and other skills outside the curriculum.

Practical Assistance“ We are seen as the skills provider. 82% of our 60+ skills sessions are

delivered/co-delivered by employers. Students love them.”

•Everyone delivers career management skills training and transferable skills awareness training. Many are also delivering transferable skills training often in association with employers

•Some are running these as modules embedded in the curriculum or providing consultancy to academic staff to assist them to do so

•Loads of online activity designed to encourage students to audit their own skills and identify ways of filling the gaps

•Some specifics:• Developing skills clouds for every degree discipline• Delivering specific training for students working and volunteering on campus eg client interviewing

skills for students volunteering to work in the Legal Advice Centre • A student internship bureau• ‘How to Analyse and Promote your Skills to Employers’, Skills4Work• Joint module with the enterprise department on commercial awareness

Session 4:The graduate recruiter confidence

snapshotCarl Gilleard, AGR

Which sector do you operate in?

Accountancy of Professional

Services

Banking or Financial

Services

Engineering or Industrial

Investment bank or Fund

Managers

Construction company of

consultancy

Law fi rm

Public Sector

Consulting or Business

Service

Transport or Logistics

Retail

IT

Oil

FMCG

Energy, Water or Utility

Company

Chemical or Pharmaceutical

Insurance

Telecommunications

Other

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

% of Responses

Is the market your business operates in:

% of Responses

67.70%

9.70%

22.60%

Global

Europe

UK Only

Are you more or less confident about the prospects for the UK economy than you were three months ago?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

% of Responses

Much More SlightlyMore

The Same SlightlyLess

Much Less

Are you more or less confident about the prospects for your business than you were three months ago?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% of responses

Much More SlightlyMore

The Same SlightlyLess

Much Less

Comparing your graduate intake with 2007/08 do you expect to recruit:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Many More A Few More The Same Slightly Fewer Many Fewer None

% o

f R

esp

on

ses

Have your target numbers of graduate recruits been adjusted since the start of the current recruiting round?

% of Responses

Down Slightly,

43.5

Down Significantly,

16.9

Up Significantly,

2.4 Up Slightly, 8.9

No Change, 28.2

Do you expect to meet your graduate targets?

0

20

40

60

80

100

% of Responses

Yes No

Paul Sissons CEO, GTI Media. Session 1: The economic forecast The macro economy and impact on...

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