E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

Patterns of Forest Pest Infestations and Threats in

Eastern US National Parks

Kate Miller Jim ComiskeyNortheast Temperate Network Mid-Atlantic Network

George Wright Society MeetingMarch 16, 2011

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

Eastern Forest Working Group

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

Priority Forest Pests and Pathogens Asian Longhorned Beetle (ALB) Balsam Woolly Adelgid (BWA) Beech Bark Disease (BBD) Butternut Canker (BC) Dogwood Anthracnose (DWA) Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Elongate Hemlock Scale (EHS) Gypsy Moth (GM) Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) Sirex Woodwasp (SW) Sudden Oak Death (SOD)

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

Priority Forest Pests and Pathogens Asian Longhorned Beetle (ALB) Balsam Woolly Adelgid (BWA) Beech Bark Disease (BBD) Butternut Canker (BC) Dogwood Anthracnose (DWA) Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Elongate Hemlock Scale (EHS) Gypsy Moth (GM) Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) Sirex Woodwasp (SW) Sudden Oak Death (SOD)

Priority Pests and PathogensNumber detected per park

Pest # ParksGypsy Moth 46

Dogwood Anthracnose 32Beech Bark Disease 15

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid 12

Hemlock Woolly AdelgidInfestation range versus park detections

Relative Basal Area of HemlockBased on tree data collected in forest plots

Current Hemlock Importance ValueIV based on species BA and density

Based on USFS FIA data (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: B1 (Low)

USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: A1FI (High)

USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

Predicted Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Range

Paradis and Elkinton et al. 2007

Based on predicted mean winter temperature of -5oCAveraged over 3 GCMs for High and Low Emission Scenarios

Hemlock Conclusions Range of HWA currently covers all networks. Many parks have already observed significant

hemlock mortality. Expansion of HWA limited by winter

temperature. Climate change scenarios

High (business as usual), HWA may cover the entire range of suitable habitat for hemlock in the Northeast.

Low, northern New England and the Adirondack region in NY as possible refugia for hemlock and may include MABI and SAGA.

Early detection and rapid response efforts to slow the spread of HWA may buy some time for MABI and SAGA.

Current Emerald Ash Borer DistributionTree ranges follow Little 1971

Relative Basal Area of Ash speciesBased on tree data collected in forest plots

Current White Ash Importance ValueIV based on species BA and density

Based on USFS FIA data (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: B1 (Low)

USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: A1FI (High)

USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

Emerald Ash Borer Conclusions Emerald ash borer is spreading rapidly

throughout the eastern US, and primarily dispersed by humans. Once EAB are established, ash mortality is nearly 100%.

Ash trees occur in over 90% of all parks sampled, although generally at low densities.

Low and high emission scenarios predict widespread decline in quality white ash habitat.

Unlike the range of HWA, spread of EAB does not appear to be limited by colder climates.

• Applications of Forest Monitoring Data Inform parks of emerging forest health issues.

Predict impacts based on observations in other parks.

Prioritize species for early detection and rapid response efforts at park and regional levels.

Inform scenario planning for climate change adaptation, including potential desired future conditions.

Sources of Information USFS Alien Forest Pest Explorer

http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/tools/afpe/maps/ USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and

Iverson 2007)http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree_atlas.html

Atlas of United States Trees (Little 1971)http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/data/atlas/little/

NPS Eastern Forest Working Grouphttp://science.nature.nps.gov/im/units/midn/Forest_Monitoring_Meeting.cfm

Northeast Temperate Inventory and Monitoring Network

http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/units/netn/index.cfm