Pattern and Consequences of Intensive Agricultural Growth in Punjab R.S. Sidhu.
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Transcript of Pattern and Consequences of Intensive Agricultural Growth in Punjab R.S. Sidhu.
Pattern and Consequences Pattern and Consequences of Intensive Agricultural of Intensive Agricultural
Growth in PunjabGrowth in Punjab
Pattern and Consequences Pattern and Consequences of Intensive Agricultural of Intensive Agricultural
Growth in PunjabGrowth in Punjab
R.S. SidhuR.S. Sidhu
Issues• Agriculture growth in Punjab is ‘most often
cited’ success story. It has been made possible by new technology, development of infrastructure and institutional support. But recently the growth has shown signs of deceleration. This paper therefore deals with the following issues.
1. What is the pattern of growth?2. What are the determinants?3. What are the constraints to future growth?4. What are the policy options to accelerate
growth?
Fig. 1: Crop Value Output of Punjab (at 2001 prices)
y = -10.126x2
+ 769.43x + 11154
R2
= 0.9157
y = -7.1863x2
+ 640.76x + 4409.7
R2
= 0.9565
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1967-681970-711971-721972-731973-741974-751975-761976-771977-781978-791979-801980-811981-821982-831983-841984-851985-861986-871987-881988-891989-901990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-961996-971997-981998-991999-002000-012001-02
Per cropped hectare (Rs)
Total value output (Rs crores)
3.70%
3.70%
0.34%
5.94%
5.16%
0.83%
Gross value of crop output at 2001-02 prices (Rs. crore)
Rice Wheat CottonOilseed
s PulsesSugarc
aneOther
cerealsAggreg
ate
1967-68 2394 21036 10203 4571 7637 432 5872 52145
% 4.59 40.34 19.57 8.77 14.65 0.83 11.26 100
1980-81
18757 48365 17490 2677 6675 353 4111 98428
% 19.06 49.14 17.77 2.72 6.78 0.36 4.18 100
1990-91
37735 76602 29062 1150 7872 540 2272 155232
% 24.31 49.35 18.72 0.74 5.07 0.35 1.46 100
2001-02
51133 98217 19569 930 2006 838 2696 175389
% 29.15 56.00 11.16 0.53 1.14 0.48 1.54 100
CGR (%) 8.56 4.10 1.35 -4.58 -1.35 1.38 -3.17 3.53
Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004
Share of different crops in GV of crop output
0102030405060
1967-68 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02
Year
Per
cen
t sh
are
Rice Wheat Cotton Oilseeds Pulses Sugarcane Other cereals
Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004
Decomposition of Agricultural Growth in Punjab
0
20
40
60
80
1967-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001
Year
Per c
ent
Con
trib
utio
n
Area Effect Aggregate crop yield effect
Inter crop shift effect (static) Inter crop shift effect (dynamic)
Agricultural Growth:1967-81 5.64%1981-91 5.16%1991-2001 0.83%
Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004
Year Area under HYV
Fert.Use Irrigated area (%)
Tube-wells(In
’000)
Tractors Cropping
Intensity
(%)Rice(000ha)
Wheat(000ha)
Total(000
Nutrient tons)
Per Ha NSA(nutrient kgs)
Total(In Thousands)
No./000 ha
70-71 130 1589 213 50 71 192 5.3 1.3 140
80-81 1095 2757 762 180 81 600 119 28.4 161
90-91 1906 3271 1220 290 93 800 289 68.5 178
02-03 2530 3375 1441 340 95 1150 451 106.8 185
Average use of inputs for wheat and rice in Punjab (Per ha)
Year/Crop Fertilizer use (kg of nutrients)
Chemical Use (Rs. at 1980-81
prices)
Machine Use (Rs. at 1980-81 prices)
Wheat
1981-84 156.70 57.31 495.34
1998-2000 224.00 202.27 680.11
Paddy
1981-84 180.50 113.69 379.55
1998-2000 182.80 267.75 629.06
Role of Agricultural Technology Development
Crop No of Research Scientists
Varieties Developed
Wheat 72 43
Rice 62 25
Cotton 35 25
S’cane 18 18
Other cereals 24 40
Oilseeds 41 42
Pulses 45 43
Fodder 8 36
Fruits 17 124
Vegetables 21 69
Livestock 73 na
Total 416
Note: Fruits include 21 fruit crops and vegetables 25 vegetables
Role of Technology Development: Growth and Variability in
Productivity
Crop CGR 1965/66 to 2001-02 CV of de-trended yield 1970-71 to 2001-02
Paddy 2.72 9.08
Cotton 0.27 25.74
Sugarcane 1.66 15.65
Maize 1.39 13.33
Wheat 2.76 4.88
Gram 0.25 19.57
Rapeseed 2.57 13.15
Role of Price Policy
Two issues are important• Movement in the relative prices • Variability in prices
Index of relative farm harvest proices of different crops in Punjab
020406080
100120140
Ind
ex V
alu
e1970-71 2001-02
Coefficient of Variation of Prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per c
en
t
Index of Income and Yield for Paddy
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
Ind
ex (
%)
Yield Income/TC Income/GR
MSP Increase: 9.52% MSP Increase: 14.88%
Role of Price Policy in Profitability
MSP Increase: 7.31% MSP Increase: 17.11%
Role of Price Policy in Profitability
Index of Income and Yield for Wheat
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
Ind
ex (
%)
Yield Income/TC Income/GR
MSP Increase: 7.31% MSP Increase: 17.11%
Realisation of cost and level of subsidy on power supply to
agriculture 1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
ACR(%)
10.44 9.39 13.81 22.27 23.83 16.34 0 0 0
Subsidy Rs. million
4664.2 6448.4 7706.5 7201.6 7226.2 9250.4 14701.9 16903.9 20161.8
Constraints to Growth
• Technology fatigue• Agrarian structure• Rise in fixed costs• Minimum support prices versus
International prices• Lack in value addition• Depleting groundwater resources• Declining fertility status of soils
Deceleration/Stagnation in Productivity Growth
Crop Actual1999-02(q/ha)
Highest As % of Potential CGR of Yield
1979/80 to 1989/90
CGR of Yield (1989/90 to 2001/02Actual Highest
Wheat 45.42 46.96 81.73 84.50 2.89s 2.02s
Rice 34.66 35.79 75.86 78.33 1.74s 0.09ns
Cotton (lint)
3.85 6.36 50.59 83.60 7.0s (-) 5.80s
Maize 26.97 27.93 60.66 62.10 (-) 0.99 3.26s
Rapeseed and Mustard
11.75 12.62 64.28 69.04 4.96s 1.38ns
Sugarcane
(in gur)
64.01 65.29 76.22 77.74 0.64 0.13
Land –man ratio in the farming sector of Punjab
Year NSA/agril. worker (ha)
GCA/agril. worker (ha)
1961 1.93 2.44
1977 1.65 2.32
1981 1.46 2.36
1991 1.25 2.22
2001 1.19 2.20
Trends in machinery cost for wheat and paddy in Punjab (In
Rs/ha)Year Wheat Paddy
Machine cost at 1980/81p
Labour use (man-days/ha)
Machine cost at 1980/81p
Labour use (man-days/ha)
1981-84 495.34 49.44 379.55 103.60
1985-88 569.28 52.35 432.47 102.35
1991-94 540.19 43.89 546.66 70.60
1995-98 534.07 42.24 579.08 59.21
1998-2000 680.11 38.88 629.06 56.32
% change (simple)
1991-94 over1981-84
9.05 -11.22 44.03 -31.85
1998-2000 over 1991-94
25.90 -11.41 15.07 -20.22
1998-2000 over 1981-84 (%/annum)
1.87 -1.06 3.29 -2.28
Wheat:MSP and International prices
(Rs/t)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1981-
82
82-
83
83-
84
84-
85
85-
86
86-
87
87-
88
88-
89
89-
90
90-
91
91-
92
92-
93
93-
94
94-
95
95-
96
96-
97
97-
98
98-
99
99-
00
20
00-
01
20
01-
02
20
02-
03
20
03-
04
MSP
International
Rice:Miller price and International price (Rs/t)
02000400060008000
100001200014000
Miller price
International price
Compound growth rates of production for wheat and rice (In per cent per annum)
State Wheat Rice
1971-72 to 1981-82
1981-82 to 1991-92
1991-92 to 2000-01
1971-72 to 1981-82
1981-82 to 1991-92
1991-92 to 2000-02
Punjab 5.23 3.57 2.53 16.91 5.48 2.86
Haryana 6.55 5.48 4.20 12.06 3.46 4.80
Madhya Pradesh 1.74 3.55 5.86 - - -
Bihar -0.91 4.36 3.00 -0.06 3.79 6.18
Rajasthan 5.34 2.81 4.96 - - -
West Bengal -4.44 -0.74 6.13 - - -
Karnataka 2.18 -5.16 4.46 1.87 1.55 2.72
Maharashtra 10.32 -1.86 4.79 - - -
Tamil Nadu - - - 0.18 3.07 2.00
Increase in proportionate area of the central zone under water table depth of
more than 10 meter
Year Central zone South west zone
5-10 mt >10 mt 5-10 mt >10 mt
1996 69 25 47 8
1998 49 42 43 12
2000 41 53 50 9
2004 10 90 52 10
In per cent
Ground Water Status in Punjab
Rate of Exploitation (%)
Blocks (in per cent of total)
Sub-Mountainous
Central (Paddy zone)
South West(Cotton zone)
Punjab
Below 100 78 17 76 47
100-200 22 63 12 41
200-300 0 15 6 9
300-400 0 3 3 2
Above 400 0 2 3 1
Total Blocks 36 69 33 138
Rise/ fall in Water table
Sangrur (Barnala) 43
Patiala 33 Jalandhar 22
Amritsar 18
Kapurthala 17 Faridkot 13 Ludhiana 13 Ropar 08 Hoshiarpur-1 02 Gurdaspur 02 Hoshiarpur-2 05 Mansa 09
Ferozpur 17
Bathinda 21
N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils, 1981 through 2002
(In per cent samples deficient)
Nutrient availability
Low Medium High
1981-90 1991-2002
1981-90 1991-2002
1981-90 1991-2002
N (OC) 78 66 22 32 0 2
P 48 62 29 23 23 15
K 8 9 45 51 46 40
Average water table depth in some central districts (in
meters)
District Measured Predicted
1993 2003 2013 2023
Sangrur
13.8 20.6 27.5 34.3
Patiala 11.7 18.4 25.2 32.0
Moga 9.4 18.6 27.8 37.0
Average water table depth (m) in different zones
Zones Measured Predicted
1993 2003 2013 2023
Sub-montane
17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3
Central 11.1 16.2 21.3 26.5
South-west
6.8 8.9 10.9 13.3
Lack of Value Addition
• Only Primary processing for rice and wheat in the state
• Less than 2% of fruits and vegetables are processed due to-lack of vertical integration of the market-higher marketing charges-less developed marketing infrastructure to handle the perishables-damand issue
• About 26% of the milk production is processed in the organised sector
Policy Options• Promoting high value enterprises like
dairying, fruits and vegetables, poultry, etc.
• Promoting value addition and processing
• Vertical integration of the market• Rationalisation of the taxes and other
charges• Rational input and output pricing
policies• Improving water use efficiency
Thank You
Decomposition of Agricultural Growth in Punjab
Average annual Growth rates (%)
Period Agri. Growth
Area effect
Land productivity effects
Indian Punjab
Overall Aggregate crop yield effect
Inter-crop shift effect (static)
Inter-crop shift effect (Dynamic)
1967-1981 5.94 2.23 3.71 2.43 0.25 1.03
% contribution
100 37.54 62.46 40.91 4.21 17.34
1981-1991 5.16 1.46 3.7 2.71 0.81 0.18
% contribution
100 28.29 71.71 52.52 15.7 3.49
-100 -73.21 -21.82 -4.98
1991-2001 0.83 0.49 0.34 0.26 0.07 0.01
% contribution
100 59.04 40.96 31.33 8.43 1.2
Contribution of different crops to land productivity (yield+crop shift effects) growth (%)
Crop 2001-02 over 1970-71
Rice 66
Bajra -1.1
Maize -7.3
Wheat 52.9
Barley -4.4
Gram -2.8
G’nut -0.9
R&M -1.4
S'cane -0.9
Am. Cotton 0.3
Desi Cotton -0.2
Share of different crops/enterprises and other
activities in the research budget of the University
Year Research Budget (Rs. Million)
Percentage of Research budget to
Wheat & rice
Cotton and S’cane
Other field crops
Horticultre
Livestock and fishery
Post harvesting
Marketing
Others
1980 41.5 16 15 12 12 16 5 1.2 23
1990 144.1 18 12 18 13 11 3 0.5 24
2000 547.1 19 10 12 12 12 4 0.7 30
2001 608.5 20 9 11 11 11 5 0.7 31
Source: The World Bank, 2003
N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils(in per cent blocks)
Low
0
20
40
60
80
100
N (OC) P K
Low 1981-90 Low 1991-2002
Medium
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
N (OC) P K
Medium 1981-90 Medium 1991-2002
High
0
10
20
30
40
50
N (OC) P K
High 1981-90 High 1991-2002