Patrick Elshof - And the winner of the Euro 2012 is...

Patrick ElshofAnd the Euro 2012

winner is…

And the winner of the 14th EC is ….

Denmark Germany England Netherlands

France Spain Sweden Ukraine

Ireland Croatia Czech republic Poland

Greece Italy Russia Portugal

Home playing teams

• 13 tournaments• Home playing finalists were in 1964, 1984 and

2004 (exception 1968)• normally every 20 years the home playing

team is in the final• We’ve to wait till 2024• Poland and Ukraine not winning EC 2012

Play offs

• Since 1996 there have been playoffs for qualifying (except 2008)

• 1996 Netherlands• 2000 England, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey• 2004 Netherlands, Croatia, Russia, Latvia, Spain• The winners of the play-offs never won the EC• Czech republic, Ireland, Portugal and Croatia

not winning the EC 2012

Best nr. 2 in Qualifying

• From 1960 till 1992 only the winner of the groups went to EC

• Except 1992, because of the war in Yugoslavia, for the first time the second placed team went to EC Denmark winner 1992

• This was an exception, because Yugoslavia qualified.

• The best nr. 2 has never won the EC• Sweden not winning EC 2012

Winners from 1960

• 1988 Netherlands• 1992 Denmark• 1996 Germany• 2000 France• 2004 Greece• 2008 Spain

• 1960 Soviet Union• 1964 Spain• 1968 Italy• 1972 West-Germany• 1976 Czechoslovakia• 1980 West-Germany• 1984 France

New and old winners• 1960 new• 1964 new• 1968 new• 1972 new• 1976 new• 1980 old• 1984 new

• 1988 new• 1992 new• 1996 old• 2000 old• 2004 new• 2008 old

5 New – 1 Old – 3 New – 2 Old – 1 New -3 Old (2008-2016)So there must be an old winner nowRussia and England not winning EC 2012

Denmark

• 7 times played in EC• 4 times not qualified for the next round• 2 times failed in the next round• 1 final, the year they didn’t qualify• Denmark must wait till one country is

disqualified by UEFA• Denmark not winning EC 2012

Opening games and finals

• 7 times a country who played in the opening game was also in the final (54% chance)

• Only in 2004 the opening game was also the final (Portugal – Greece, 1-2 and 0-1)

• Only 3 times the host country won the EC (23%) 1964, 1968 and 1984

• Opening game 2012 Poland - Greece

Chance being in opening game and final facing countries

1960-1976 1980-1992 1992-20080%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18100%

50%

25%

4 countries

8 countries

16 countries

CountriesChance

Chan

ce

Coun

trie

s in

EC

Changes for Greece

• Greece has only been 3 times at the EC (1980, 2004 and 2008)

• The performance was weak (2 times last in the group, once EC)

• If they survive the group, the next round they will meet nr. 2, 4, 5 or 9 from the FIFA list

• If they survive that round they’ll probably meet the nr. 1 (Spain), 7 (England) or 12 (Italy)

• Greece not winning 2012

End results in Pool C and D based on history from 1996 till 2008

• Pool C; Ireland never been there, Croatia 2 times quarterfinal. Spain (winner 2008) and Italy (runner-up 2000) are historically better

• Pool D; Ukraine never been there, Sweden only in 2004 in quarter final. England and France (winner 2000) are historically better

End Results Pool C and D based on results in the past

• Pool C1. Spain2. Italy3. Croatia4. Ireland

• Pool D1. France2. England3. Sweden4. Ukraine

QuarterfinalsNr 1 C – nr. 2 D Spain – EnglandNr 1 D – nr. 2 C France – Italy

Historically Spain is stronger, England have never been in the final and Spain won twice (1964 and 2008). Spain is also the WC (2010). England not going to the semi-final

France – Italy ?

France (groupfase)• 2008, last• 2004, 1st, quarterfinal

Greece• 2000, 2nd, winner EC• 1996, 1st, semi final

Italy (groupfase)• 2008, 2nd, quarterfinal

Spain• 2004, 3rd

• 2000, 1st, final• 1996, 3rd

Based on historyBoth teams lost one time in the quarterfinal to the winner. In 2000 this was the final and France won. In 2004 (Italy) and in 2008 (France) were not good. Both were 1st in the qualifying group for EC 2012.France will win, Italy not winning EC 2012

Semi finals

• Pool B; Germany will be nr. 1 and Netherlands nr. 2 (based on results in the past, qualifying and FIFA ranking)

Netherlands – SpainGermany – France

• Never has the former winner reached the final in the next EC

• Spain not going to the final and not winning EC 2012

Germany – France??

• Germany nr 2, France nr. 16 on the FIFA ranking list

• Germany won all their games in the qualifying, France lost once and drew 3

• Both countries have never met each other in qualifying for EC or in the EC

• Germany, winner in 1996, runner-up 2008• France not going to the final and not winning

EC 2012

FinalGermany - Netherlands

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 20160

5

10

15

20

1976 (runner-up)Germany - Tsje-

choslawakia

1980 (winner)Germany -Belgium

1992 (runner-up)Germany -Denmark

1996 (winner)Germany -Czech rep.

2012 (runner-up)Germany -

Netherlands

Final

Countries

Coun

trie

s

2016 winner)Germany - ?





Winner EC 2012

Patrick ElshofThank You!

Patrick Elshof - And the winner of the Euro 2012 is...

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