Patel Engineering Result Updated

8/3/2019 Patel Engineering Result Updated

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY12 3QFY11 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)Net sales 619.3 434.6 948.5 42.5 (34.7)Operating profit 111.3 58.0 111.5 91.7 (0.2)

Net profit after MI 20.0 9.8 30.1 104.8 (33.5)Source: Company, Angel Research

For 3QFY2012, Patel Engineerings (PEL) numbers came in above ours and streets

estimates. The company posted strong revenue growth during the quarter, mainly

on account of its international subsidiaries. However, we are not revising our

numbers on the basis of this quarters performance, as we believe recovery to the

growth path for PEL will take time as order inflow concerns loom large and as the

current order book is plagued with delays/deferrals. Also, the company is yet to

provide for the hedging loss incurred due to project cancellations, which we believe

would materialize and impact the companys financials in future. Hence,we maintain our negative stance on the company and a Neutral rating on the stock.Numbers surprise positively due to lower depreciation and interest cost: For3QFY2012, on a consolidated basis, PEL posted net sales growth of 42.5% yoy

primarily due to good performance of its international subsidiaries. EBITDA margin

came as a surprise at 18.0%, as international subsidiaries reported superlative

margins of 19.5%. Therefore, reported PAT for the quarter grew by 104.8% yoy,

despite a 63.4% yoy/14.1% qoq increase in interest cost.

Outlook and valuation: PELs core C&EPC business is currently facing headwindswith its large projects facing delays and a disappointing order inflow. Further,

the longer gestation nature of its order book, macro headwinds and increasing debt

levels put the companys growth visibility for the next few quarters under doubt.

Hence, we maintain our Neutral view with a fair value of `106/share. Key risks to

our recommendation are: 1) pick-up in order inflow from the power segment in the

near term; 2) earlier-than-expected execution from the companys slow-moving

orders; and 3) raising of capital and the resultant decline in debt levels.

Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013ENet sales (incl op. income) 3,191 3,476 3,573 3,609% chg 29.7 8.9 2.8 1.0

Adj. net profit 198 123 104 103% chg 42.4 (38.1) (15.3) (0.7)

FDEPS (`) 28.4 17.6 14.9 14.8EBITDA margin (%) 15.9 14.3 13.4 13.1

P/E (x) 3.8 6.2 7.3 7.3

RoAE (%) 16.7 8.8 7.0 6.6

RoACE (%) 12.5 10.5 9.0 8.2P/BV (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/Sales (x) 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 6.7 6.9 7.6

Source: Company, Angel Research

NEUTRALCMP `108Target Price -

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 45.6

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.7

FII / NRIs / OCBs 6.6

Indian Public / Others 36.1

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (1.0) (4.0) 90.8

Patel 10.8 (53.4) (27.5)

1

17,301

5,236

PENG.BO

PEC@IN

750

1.6

240/73

183,470

Infrastructure

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Shailesh Kanani022-39357800 Ext: 6829

[email protected]

Nitin Arora022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Patel EngineeringPerformance Highlights

3QFY2012 Result Update | Infrastructure

February 1, 2012


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Patel Engineering | 3QFY2012 Result Update

February 1, 2012 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY12 3QFY11 2QFY12 % Chg (yoy) % Chg (qoq) 9MFY12 9MFY11 % ChgNet sales 619.3 434.6 948.5 42.5 (34.7) 2,324.2 1,902.8 22.1Total expenditure 508.1 376.6 837.0 34.9 (39.3) 1,983.9 1,610.2 23.2Operating profit 111.3 58.0 111.5 91.7 (0.2) 340.3 292.6 16.3OPM (%) 18.0 13.4 11.8 460bp 620bp 14.6 15.4 (80)bp

Interest 59.2 36.2 51.9 63.4 14.1 174.5 98.7 76.8

Depreciation 20.5 18.6 15.1 10.5 35.8 61.9 70.4 (12.2)

Non operating income 2.4 7.1 2.5 - (5.1) 7.2 14.8 (51.8)

Nonrecurring items - 1.0 - - - - 1.0 -

Profit before tax 33.9 11.3 47.1 200.2 (27.9) 111.1 139.4 (20.3)Tax 12.2 2.7 15.9 361.9 (23.2) 39.2 41.2 (4.8)

Net profit before MI 21.7 8.6 31.1 150.6 (30.4) 72.0 98.2 (26.7)

PAT (%) 3.5 2.0 3.3 150bp 20bp 3.1 5.2 (210)bp

Minority interest (MI) 1.7 (1.1) 1.0 5.9 4.7

Reported net profit after MI 20.0 9.8 30.1 104.8 (33.5) 66.0 93.4 (29.4) Adj. PAT (%) 3.2 2.3 3.2 - - 2.8 4.9 -

FDEPS 2.9 1.4 4.3 104.8 (33.5) 9.5 13.4 (29.4)Source: Company, Angel Research

Top line surprises positively

For 3QFY2012, on a consolidated basis, PEL posted net sales growth of 42.5%

yoy, primarily due to good performance of its international subsidiaries.

Order inflow for 3QFY2012 and 9MFY2012 continued to remain muted in-line

with the weak trend of order inflow in the earlier quarters.

Exhibit 2:Consolidated top-line growth surprises


Exhibit 3:Stable standalone top-line growth


30.4 30.6 32.8

15.2

37.6

28.024.1

9.2

26.0

(31.3)

33.4

7.7

23.8

42.5

-40.0-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

Sales ( cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)

(8.7)

(16.3)

4.7

20.2

30.7 31.3

38.7

2.2

34.0

(11.0)

9.4 11.213.3

15.6

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)


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February 1, 2012 3

Earnings under pressure

EBITDA margin came as a surprise at 18.0%, as international subsidiaries reported

superlative margins of 19.5%. Therefore, reported PAT for the quarter grew by

104.8% yoy, despite a 63.4% yoy/14.1% qoq increase in interest cost.

Going ahead as well, we believe earnings will continue to reel under pressure,

given that the companys key segments (power and irrigation) are facing major

headwinds (no major order inflows for the 9MFY2012) and the smoke does not

look to get cleared in the near to medium term.

Exhibit 4:Volatility in margins continues


Exhibit 5:PATM trend


14.1

16.618.115.4

16.418.7 18.8

12.6

16.915.2

13.4

8.1

15.5

11.8

18.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

5.7

7.67.2

5.0

5.7

7.37.6

6.0 5.7 5.7

2.0

2.3

2.1

3.2 3.2

0

1

2

3

4

56

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)


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February 1, 2012 4

Outlook and valuation

PELs core C&EPC business is currently facing headwinds with its large projects

facing delays and a disappointing order inflow. Further, the longer gestation

nature of the companys order book, macro headwinds and increasing debt levels

put PELs growth visibility for the next few quarters under doubt. Hence,we maintain our Neutral rating with a fair value of `106/share. Key risks to ourrecommendation are: 1) pick-up in order inflow from the power segment in thenear term; 2) earlier-than-expected execution from the companys slow-movingorders; and 3) raising of capital and the resultant decline in debt levels.Exhibit 6:Derivation of SOTP-based fair value for PEL (FY2013E)

Business segment Methodology Remarks ` cr `/share % to TPCore Construction P/E 5x FY2013E Const. Earnings 382 54.7 51.4

Real Estate NAV/BV 50% Discount 117 16.7 15.7BOT Assets BV 1.0x P/BV 109 15.7 14.7

Power Venture BV 0.5x P/BV 135 19.3 18.2

Total 743 106.4 100.0CMP (`) 108.0Upside (%) (1.5)


Exhibit 7:Angel EPS forecast vs. consensus

Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2012E 14.9 14.8 0.5

FY2013E 14.8 15.0 (1.6)


Investment Arguments

Structural issues on the business front: PEL's core E&C business is currently facingstrong headwinds, with its large projects facing delays and drying of order inflow

for the last many quarters. Further, the longer gestation nature of its order book

and increasing debt levels put the company's growth visibility for the next few

quarters under doubt. Further, there is no clarity on the execution schedule of its

1,050MW thermal power project owing to pending clearances.

Valuations: Given the sharp fall in the stock price in the past 12 months, PEL'svaluations have come down drastically vindicating our negative stance on the

stock. However, we are concerned about the growth prospects of the company and

believe that it is facing structural issues, which will take time to be sorted out.

Further, there are better plays available in the infrastructure space than PEL.

Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Key risks to our recommendation: 1) Pick-up in order inflow from the powersegment in the near term; 2) earlier-than-expected execution from its slow-moving

orders; and 3) raising of capital and the resultant decline in debt levels.


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February 1, 2012 5

Exhibit 8:Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Rating Top line (` cr) EPS (`) Adj. P/E OB/FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E Sales(x)

ABL 198 245 Buy 1,302 1,648 1,853 19.3 19.2 21.7 25.4 15.2 10.4 9.2 7.8 4.2CCCL 17 - Neutral 2,199 2,350 2,451 5.6 2.5 (1.1) 1.6 (20.5) 6.7 - 10.6 2.7

HCC 25 - Neutral 4,093 3,915 4,633 6.4 1.2 (3.1) 0.6 (25.8) 21.3 - 38.7 4.0

IRB Infra 174 182 Neutral 2,438 3,176 3,781 24.5 13.6 14.2 13.1 (2.0) 12.8 12.3 13.3 -

ITNL 207 227 Accu. 4,049 5,169 6,609 27.8 22.3 24.4 25.7 7.4 9.3 8.5 8.1 5.2

IVRCL 56 56 Neutral 5,651 5,598 6,458 6.9 5.9 3.8 4.6 (11.5) 9.5 14.9 12.1 4.5

JP Assoc. 73 88 Buy 13,832 13,763 16,017 7.6 5.5 2.7 4.2 (12.6) 13.3 26.7 17.4 -

L&T 1,345 1,608 Buy 43,905 53,779 60,258 17.2 54.3 63.7 70.9 14.2 24.8 21.1 19.0 3.3

Madhucon 60 77 Buy 1,816 1,952 2,503 17.4 5.6 4.4 4.7 (8.1) 10.8 13.5 12.7 3.8

NCC 59 59 Neutral 5,074 5,095 5,749 6.4 6.4 3.6 3.8 (22.4) 9.3 16.6 15.4 3.4

Patel Engg 107 - Neutral 3,476 3,271 3,586 1.6 17.6 14.0 14.5 (9.2) 6.1 7.7 7.4 2.7Punj Lloyd 56 - Neutral 7,850 9,585 10,592 16.2 (5.4) 1.9 2.9 - - 29.5 19.3 3.3

Sadbhav 138 150 Accu. 2,209 2,602 2,585 8.2 8.0 9.1 9.0 6.0 17.2 15.0 15.3 2.8

Simplex In. 205 233 Accu. 4,889 5,562 6,485 15.2 21.5 18.9 25.9 9.8 9.5 10.8 7.9 3.1


Exhibit 9:SOTP break-up

Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. in subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `

ABL 10442 - - 141 58 - - - - 245

CCCL 17 100 - - - - - - - - 17HCC 4 12 12 37 16 51 - - - - 32

IRB Infra 116 64 - - 61 34 4 2 - 182

ITNL 59 26 - - 143 63 - - 25 11 227

IVRCL 37 66 - - - - 19 34 - - 56

JP Assoc. 31 35 24 27 - - - - 33 37 88

L&T 1,276 79 - - - - 332 21 - - 1,608

Madhucon 23 30 2 3 52 68 - - - 77

NCC 31 52 2 3 8 14 - - 18 31 59

Patel Engg 55 51 17 16 16 15 - - 19 18 106Punj Lloyd 47 100 - - - - - - - - 47

Sadbhav 81 54 - - 70 46 - - - - 150

Simplex In. 233 100 - - - - - - - - 233



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February 1, 2012 6

Profit and loss statement (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013ENet Sales 1,853 2,460 3,191 3,476 3,573 3,609Other operating income 2 - - - - -Total operating income 1,855 2,460 3,191 3,476 3,573 3,609% chg 42.6 32.6 29.7 8.9 2.8 1.0

Total Expenditure 1,557 2,070 2,682 2,979 3,094 3,137

Net Raw Materials 455 427 398 461 786 794

Other Mfg costs 935 1,471 2,011 2,212 2,123 2,156

Personnel 112 128 136 115 179 180

Other 55 44 138 191 7 7

EBITDA 299 390 509 497 479 472% chg 90.8 30.5 30.5 (2.2) (3.6) (1.5)

(% of Net Sales) 16.1 15.8 15.9 14.3 13.4 13.1

Depreciation& Amortisation 63 120 109 82 82 90

EBIT 236 270 400 415 397 382% chg 94.0 14.5 47.9 3.9 (4.3) (3.9)

(% of Net Sales) 12.7 11.0 12.5 11.9 11.1 10.6

Interest & other Charges 61 137 192 284 331 332

Other Income (incl Ass/JV pft) 41 62 98 89 98 107

(% of PBT) 18.9 31.9 32.0 40.4 59.6 68.3

Recurring PBT 216 196 305 220 164 157% chg 69.1 (9.5) 55.8 (27.9) (25.5) (4.2)

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - (41) - - - -

PBT (reported) 216 237 305 220 164 157Tax 23 44 93 54 53 47

(% of PBT) 10.7 18.4 30.5 24.6 32.5 30.0

PAT (reported) 193 193 212 166 111 110Less: Minority interest (MI) 11 13 14 8 7 7

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 182 181 198 158 104 103ADJ. PAT 151 139 198 123 104 103% chg 35.4 (8.1) 42.4 (38.1) (15.3) (0.7)

(% of Net Sales) 8.2 5.7 6.2 3.5 2.9 2.9

Basic EPS (`) (Reported) 30.5 30.2 30.2 22.6 14.9 14.8Fully Diluted EPS ( ) (Diluted) 21.7 19.9 28.4 17.6 14.9 14.8% chg 35.4 (8.1) 42.4 (38.1) (15.3) (0.7)


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February 1, 2012 7

Balance sheet (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 6 6 7 7 7 7Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 840 1,011 1,356 1,421 1,516 1,610

Shareholders Funds 846 1,017 1,363 1,428 1,523 1,617Minority Interest 41 22 62 70 70 70Total Loans 1,194 1,747 2,138 2,806 2,905 3,092

Deferred Tax Liability 15 15 11 13 13 13

Total Liabilities 2,096 2,800 3,574 4,317 4,512 4,792APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 615 804 861 1,008 1,108 1,233

Less: Acc. Depreciation 180 303 306 364 446 537

Net Block 435 500 555 644 662 697Capital Work-in-Progress 235 70 204 209 259 309

Investments 36 50 70 78 278 428Current Assets 2,045 2,865 3,758 4,548 4,701 5,019

Inventories 824 1,110 1,803 2,039 2,283 2,283

Sundry Debtors 462 583 696 872 1,003 1,103

Cash 288 295 232 243 109 65

Loans & Advances 471 878 1,026 1,306 1,306 1,567

Other - - - 88 - -

Current liabilities 658 692 1,020 1,170 1,397 1,669

Net Current Assets 1,387 2,174 2,738 3,378 3,304 3,350Misc. Exp. not written off 2 6 7 8 8 8

Total Assets 2,096 2,800 3,574 4,317 4,512 4,792


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February 1, 2012 8

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E FY2013EProfit before tax (excluding MI) 186 237 291 212 157 150

Depreciation 63 120 109 82 82 90Change in Working Capital 396 663 627 629 61 89

Less: Other income 41 62 98 89 98 107

Direct taxes paid 45 76 108 54 53 47

Cash Flow from Operations (234) (444) (433) (478) 28 (3)(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (482) (15) (295) (152) (150) (175)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (2) (51) 21 (8) (200) (150)

Other income 41 62 98 89 98 107

Cash Flow from Investing (443) (4) (176) (71) (252) (218)Issue of Equity - - 344 - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 703 536 391 668 99 186

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 8 6 23 8 9 9

Others 165 (75) (166) (100) - -

Cash Flow from Financing 860 455 547 560 90 177Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 183 7 (62) 11 (134) (44)

Opening Cash balances 105 288 295 232 243 109Closing Cash balances 288 295 232 243 109 65


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February 1, 2012 9

Key ratios

Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 5.0 5.4 3.8 6.2 7.3 7.3P/CEPS 3.5 2.9 2.5 3.7 4.1 3.9

P/BV 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.6 1.9 0.9 1.0 1.1

EV/Sales 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0

EV/EBITDA 5.6 5.7 5.2 6.7 7.4 8.0

EV / Total Assets 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Order Book to Sales 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.1 2.2

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 30.5 30.2 30.2 22.6 14.9 14.8

EPS (fully diluted) 21.7 19.9 28.4 17.6 14.9 14.8

Cash EPS 30.7 37.0 44.0 29.3 26.6 27.7

DPS 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2

Book Value 121.1 145.7 195.2 204.5 218.1 231.5

DuPont AnalysisEBIT margin 12.7 11.0 12.5 11.9 11.1 10.6

Tax retention ratio 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8

ROIC (Post-tax) 14.4 10.2 9.5 8.4 6.3 5.9

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.4 7.6 6.9 8.7 7.8 7.8

Leverage (x) 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9

Operating ROE 21.1 13.5 13.2 8.1 3.6 2.3

Returns (%)ROACE (Pre-tax) 14.2 11.0 12.5 10.5 9.0 8.2

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 16.2 12.5 13.7 11.2 9.4 8.4

ROAE 19.5 14.9 16.7 8.8 7.0 6.6

Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.1

Inventory / Sales (days) 125 144 167 202 221 231

Receivables (days) 75 77 73 82 96 107

Payables (days) 100 99 95 110 126 150

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 176 221 251 296 323 328Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.9

Net debt to EBITDA 3.0 3.7 3.7 5.2 5.8 6.4

Interest Coverage 3.9 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.1


10/10


February 1, 2012 10

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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risks of such an investment.

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Patel Engg.

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Patel Engineering Result Updated

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