Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay.
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Transcript of Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay.
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Past, Present, and Probable Future of
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Dr. Robert MacKay
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Outline•Introduction/ Motivation•Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change•Recent temperature record•Past CO2•Present CO2•A simple mathematical/conceptual model•Future projections•Future emissions•Discussion
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Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing
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No Atmosphere http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/meteor/Animations/greenhouse.jnlp
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Today’s Atmosphere
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Greenhouse Gases
•Water Vapor
•Carbon Dioxide
•Ozone
•Methane
•Nitrous Oxide
•Chlorofluorocarbons
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Cooling to offset warming
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http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
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pH change between 1751 and 1990s. Estimate are that globally ocean surface water pH levels have decreased by as much as .12 units for atmospheric CO2 change from 280 to 360 ppm.
http://www.terrain.org/articles/21/burns.htm
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Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times
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Vostok Ice Core data
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http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CO2assign.htm
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http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm
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http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm
Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon.
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http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html
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http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
US Carbon emissions through 2004
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http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
China’s carbon emission through 2004
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http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
Russia’s carbon emission through 2004
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http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
India’s carbon emission through 2004
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Fossil Fuel Reserves
~40 yrs Oil
~80 yrs Natural gas
~200 years coal
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World Population
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
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Fossil Fuel ReservesOil
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
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http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
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Fossil Fuel ReservesNatural Gas
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
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Fossil Fuel Reservescoal
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
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http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html
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http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html
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A -developing countries B-Industrialize countries
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http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/CarbonCycle.ppt
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