Past and future impacts on the landscape and drainage of the Yorkshire Dales (Part 3)
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Transcript of Past and future impacts on the landscape and drainage of the Yorkshire Dales (Part 3)
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Past and future impacts on the landscape and drainage of the
Yorkshire Dales (Part 3)Dr Aidan Foley
CLIMATE CHANGE
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Climate Change ~ 10,000 years (Holocene)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/data.html
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Radiative forcings
1750-1990
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Climate Change ~ 2000 years
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html
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Climate Change ~ 1000 years with forcings
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change, Chapter 6, Palaeoclimate, Figure 6.14.
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Instrumental temperature record
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
IPCC, 2007
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25 year temperature record
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
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Global temperature trends
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Global & continental temperature change
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Other issues:River water temperature
Gosling, R (2011) The impact of climate change on water temperature and ecological health in Scottish rivers. Scottish Environment Protection Agency
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Climate change in Europe
“Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to
increase more than the global mean.”
“Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in
most of northern Europe.”
“Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase
in northern Europe.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
4th Assessment Report (2007). pg. 872
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Projected warming
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Precipitation trends
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Modelled estimates of UK monthly precipitation changes
Maps of central estimates of monthly precipitation changes (in percent) derived from the sampled UKCP09 probabilistic changes over river-basin regions
Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–425 (2012) 48–67
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Modelled estimates of UK monthly potential evapotranspiration changes
Maps of central estimates of monthly potential evapotranspiration changes (in percent) derived from the sampled UKCP09 probabilistic changes over river-basin regions
Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–425 (2012) 48–67
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Predicted changes in PPT & PET for the River Ribble at Arnford
Annual cycle of changes in precipitation (top row) and PET (bottom row) for the Ribble@Arnford. Left: 20-member sampled subset of UKCP09 changes; middle:changes from the six individual UKWIR06 projections; right: changes from the 11-member ensemble of bias-corrected regional projections.
Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–425 (2012) 48–67
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Forecast changes in flow of the River Ribble at Arnford on the basis of three UK climate scenarios
Climate & River Flows
B.v. Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–425 (2012) 48–67
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Factors influencing river temperature
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Riparian shading
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Fish live in trees!
- Trees and large woody debris
– Shelter from high velocity flows
– Feeding sites (provision of habitat for lower organisms)
– Spawning sites (up to 50% of all sites)
– Nursery sites
– Territorial markers
– Refuge from predators
– Reduction in sediment inputs from overland flow
– Increase bank stability
– Reduce eutrophication (cut out sunlight)
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Habitat Types, Cam Beck.
Unit Length
Average Wet width
Average Active Channel Width
Average Depth
Maximum/Mean Depth
Percentage Riparian Shade on Left and Right Bank individually
Percentage of wetted area with ‘cover’ for juvenile fish
Percentage composition of substrate
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Extremely Simple Management Solutions #1
TREES!
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The role of groundwater
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Baseflow
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Role of groundwater in mitigating climate change
More variable river discharge and soil moisture
The former exacerbates intra-annual freshwater shortages and the risk of flooding whereas the latter threatens food security through reduced crop yields
Projected changes in the spatial distribution of mean rainfall are substantial but remain highly uncertain for most of the world
Strategies to adapt to more variable freshwater resources will, in many environments, increase dependence upon groundwater
Few climate impact models explicitly consider, however, how climate variability and change affect groundwater recharge and the sustainable development of groundwater despite its central role in enabling adaptation in domestic and agricultural water sectors
International Association of Hydrogeologists
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Acknowledgements &References
Caves & Karst of the Yorkshire Dales (Tony Waltham & David Lowe)
Climate History and the Modern World (H.H. Lamb)
The Geomorphology of the British Isles – Northern England (Cuchlaine M. King)
Glacial & Periglacial Geomorphology (Clifford Embleton & Cuchlaine M. King)
North West Geodiversity Partnership
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change