Past and Future Fire in the Arctic Tundra of Alaska Tundra of Alaska Alaskan Tundra Lightning...
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Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI) Michigan Technological University 3600 Green Court, Suite 100 Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (734) 913-6840 – Phone (734) 913-6880 – Fax www.mtri.org Past and Future Fire in the Arctic Tundra of Alaska Alaskan Tundra Lightning Historical Alaskan Tundra Fires Tundra Fire Size and Seasonality Future Tundra Fire Potential Lightning in tundra regions: • There is 1 documented fire start for every ~1,900 lightning strikes in the tundra regions; and • A higher portion of lightning strikes are in the interior tundra areas and the mountainous Brooks Range than in the coastal regions. Historical Alaskan fires within the Tundra: • The AICC Large Fire Database contains points (depicted here with open colored circles) and polygons entries • Region defined by the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation. • Historical fires are divided into six ecoregions based on the U.S. Forest Service EcoMap Ecoregions. • Fires are relatively evenly distributed among the ecoregions (approximately 10-25% in each region) with the exception of the NS Coastal Plain which has experienced very little fire activity. Ecoregion Number of Ground Strikes % Total Brooks Range 10,429 56.5 Foothills 3,433 18.6 SW Alaska 2,489 13.5 Kotzebue Lowlands 1,068 5.8 Coastal Plain 697 3.8 Seward Peninsula 349 1.9 Total 18,465 • 15 fires in the data record are larger than 500 km 2 (123,553 ac; above left) • The average fire size is 22 km 2 (5,436 ac). • The median fire size is 0.23 km 2 (56 ac). • More, and more small fires, have been detected and recorded in recent decades (upper right). The average fire size is 11.5 km2 (2881.4 ac) if only data from 1990s to present are analyzed. • Most (87%) tundra fires have occurred in June and July (lower right). Largest Tundra Fires Rank Fire Name Area km 2 Year Ecoregion 1 IMURUK BASIN 1,680 1954 Seward Pen. 2 ANVIK RIVER 1,616 1957 SW Alaska 3 PAIMIUT 1,434 1954 SW Alaska 4 AUGUS 1,070 1977 Kotzebue Lowlands 5 KUGRUK HI 1,060 1977 Seward Pen. 6 Anaktuvuk River 1,039 2007 Foothills 7 Reindeer 918 2002 SW Alaska 8 832032 847 1988 Kotzebue Lowlands 9 GMT S 12 834 1977 Seward Pen. 10 KILIOVIL 654 1977 Kotzebue Lowlands 11 ROLLING CREEK #1 617 1957 Kotzebue Lowlands 12 HUSLIA RIVER #2 594 1956 Kotzebue Lowlands 13 CDL E 14 563 1977 Seward Pen. 14 Saddle 525 2005 SW Alaska 15 165-30 514 1971 Seward Pen. -1.6 -0.6 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 6.4 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 log area (acres) log area (km2) Decadal, Seasonal, and Regional summaries of The AICC Large Fire Database point and polygon data. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Brooks Range Coastal Plain Foothills Kotzebue Lowlands Seward Pen. SW Alaska • Overall it is highly likely that fire occurrence in tundra areas across Alaska will increase irrespective of the efforts to mitigate against climate change (right). • Seward Peninsula and Noatak will continue to be highly susceptible to fire with the highest projected increase in fire occurrence for all tested climate change scenarios . • FWI values will routinely exceed 20 (very high) across a full grid cell of CanESM2 (2.81 X 2.81 degrees) in both the Seward Peninsula and Noatak, with very high likelihood of much higher localized FWI values. • Similar values were recorded only 7 times in these two regions in historical record. • There are known issues with data omission in the AICC fire history database, particularly in earlier years. • Small fires were not fully documented before 2000. Fires from the first five decades (1940 to 1980) represent just 25% of all fire records across more than eight decades (1940 to 2010), indicating the data are more complete in recent years. • At times the fire perimeter is mapped before the fire is complete, or fire size is reported before the season in over, resulting in an inaccurate reported burn area (example from Kaluktavik Fire above). The research presented was funded through a grant from the NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program (#NNX10AF41G) to Michigan Tech Research Institute and the University of Maryland. Point database Polygon database Number of fires % Total Number of fires Fire Area (km 2 ) % Total Fire Area Average Area (km 2 ) Number of fires % Total Number of fires Fire Area (km 2 ) % Total Fire Area Average Area (km 2 ) Total 908 20,040 22 463 25,656 55 Decade 1940 14 2 413 2 30 -- -- -- -- -- 1950 50 6 2,463 12 49 13 3 6,271 24 482 1960 8 1 66 0 8 4 1 217 1 54 1970 111 12 9,352 47 84 114 25 9,256 36 81 1980 40 4 951 5 24 43 9 1,702 7 40 1990 240 26 2,438 12 10 77 17 2,472 10 32 2000 246 27 3,063 15 12 100 22 4,425 17 44 2010 199 22 1,301 6 7 112 24 1,312 5 12 Season January 1 0 2 0 2 1 0 2 0 2 April 4 0 5 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 May 52 6 703 4 14 21 5 704 3 34 June 394 43 6,004 30 16 173 37 11,175 44 65 July 384 42 11,427 57 15 229 49 12,241 48 53 August 53 6 1,408 7 27 31 7 1,424 6 46 September 7 1 49 0 7 3 1 57 0 19 October 2 0 10 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 December 1 0 52 0 52 1 0 52 0 52 Dateless 10 1 389 2 39 3 1 0 0 0 Ecoregion NS Coastal Plain 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 NS Foothills 107 12 3,237 16 30 52 11 3,208 13 62 Brooks Range 153 17 1,090 5 7 114 25 1,246 5 11 Kotzebue Lowlands 204 22 4,748 24 23 97 21 6,313 25 65 Seward Pen. 184 20 7,125 36 39 79 17 7,567 29 96 SW Alaska 258 28 3,838 19 15 120 26 7,322 29 61 Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Ph.D. MTRI [email protected] (734) 913-6873 Nancy H.F. French , Ph.D. MTRI [email protected] (734) 913-6844 Liza K. Jenkins MTRI [email protected] (734) 913-6869 Tatiana Loboda, Ph.D. University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-8891
Transcript of Past and Future Fire in the Arctic Tundra of Alaska Tundra of Alaska Alaskan Tundra Lightning...
Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI) Michigan Technological University 3600 Green Court, Suite 100 Ann Arbor, MI 48105
(734) 913-6840 – Phone (734) 913-6880 – Fax www.mtri.org
Past and Future Fire in the Arctic Tundra of Alaska
Alaskan Tundra Lightning
Historical Alaskan Tundra Fires
Tundra Fire Size and Seasonality
Future Tundra Fire Potential
Lightning in tundra regions: • There is 1 documented fire
start for every ~1,900 lightning strikes in the tundra regions; and
• A higher portion of lightning strikes are in the interior tundra areas and the mountainous Brooks Range than in the coastal regions.
Historical Alaskan fires within the Tundra: • The AICC Large Fire Database contains points (depicted
here with open colored circles) and polygons entries • Region defined by the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation. • Historical fires are divided into six ecoregions based on
the U.S. Forest Service EcoMap Ecoregions. • Fires are relatively evenly distributed among the
ecoregions (approximately 10-25% in each region) with the exception of the NS Coastal Plain which has experienced very little fire activity.
Ecoregion Number of
Ground Strikes
% Total
Brooks Range 10,429 56.5
Foothills 3,433 18.6
SW Alaska 2,489 13.5
Kotzebue Lowlands 1,068 5.8
Coastal Plain 697 3.8
Seward Peninsula 349 1.9
Total 18,465
• 15 fires in the data record are larger than 500 km2 (123,553 ac; above left)
• The average fire size is 22 km2 (5,436 ac). • The median fire size is 0.23 km2 (56 ac). • More, and more small fires, have been
detected and recorded in recent decades (upper right). The average fire size is 11.5 km2 (2881.4 ac) if only data from 1990s to present are analyzed.
• Most (87%) tundra fires have occurred in June and July (lower right).
Largest Tundra Fires Rank
Fire Name
Area km2
Year
Ecoregion
1 IMURUK BASIN 1,680 1954 Seward Pen. 2 ANVIK RIVER 1,616 1957 SW Alaska 3 PAIMIUT 1,434 1954 SW Alaska 4 AUGUS 1,070 1977 Kotzebue Lowlands 5 KUGRUK HI 1,060 1977 Seward Pen. 6 Anaktuvuk River 1,039 2007 Foothills 7 Reindeer 918 2002 SW Alaska 8 832032 847 1988 Kotzebue Lowlands 9 GMT S 12 834 1977 Seward Pen. 10 KILIOVIL 654 1977 Kotzebue Lowlands 11 ROLLING CREEK #1 617 1957 Kotzebue Lowlands 12 HUSLIA RIVER #2 594 1956 Kotzebue Lowlands 13 CDL E 14 563 1977 Seward Pen. 14 Saddle 525 2005 SW Alaska 15 165-30 514 1971 Seward Pen.
-1.6
-0.6
0.4
1.4
2.4
3.4
4.4
5.4
6.4
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
log
area
(acr
es)
log
area
(km
2)
Decadal, Seasonal, and Regional summaries of The AICC Large Fire Database point and polygon data.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Brooks Range
Coastal Plain
Foothills
Kotzebue Lowlands
Seward Pen.
SW Alaska
• Overall it is highly likely that fire occurrence in tundra areas across Alaska will increase irrespective of the efforts to mitigate against climate change (right).
• Seward Peninsula and Noatak will continue to be highly susceptible to fire with the highest projected increase in fire occurrence for all tested climate change scenarios .
• FWI values will routinely exceed 20 (very high) across a full grid cell of CanESM2 (2.81 X 2.81 degrees) in both the Seward Peninsula and Noatak, with very high likelihood of much higher localized FWI values.
• Similar values were recorded only 7 times in these two regions in historical record.
• There are known issues with data omission in the AICC fire history database, particularly in earlier years.
• Small fires were not fully documented before 2000. Fires from the first five decades (1940 to 1980) represent just 25% of all fire records across more than eight decades (1940 to 2010), indicating the data are more complete in recent years.
• At times the fire perimeter is mapped before the fire is complete, or fire size is reported before the season in over, resulting in an inaccurate reported burn area (example from Kaluktavik Fire above). The research presented was funded through a grant from the NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program (#NNX10AF41G)
to Michigan Tech Research Institute and the University of Maryland.
Point database Polygon database
Number of fires
% Total Number of fires
Fire Area (km2)
% Total Fire Area
Average Area (km2)
Number of fires
% Total Number of fires
Fire Area (km2)
% Total Fire Area
Average Area (km2)
Total 908 20,040 22 463 25,656 55
Deca
de
1940 14 2 413 2 30 -- -- -- -- --
1950 50 6 2,463 12 49 13 3 6,271 24 482
1960 8 1 66 0 8 4 1 217 1 54
1970 111 12 9,352 47 84 114 25 9,256 36 81
1980 40 4 951 5 24 43 9 1,702 7 40
1990 240 26 2,438 12 10 77 17 2,472 10 32
2000 246 27 3,063 15 12 100 22 4,425 17 44
2010 199 22 1,301 6 7 112 24 1,312 5 12
Seas
on
January 1 0 2 0 2 1 0 2 0 2
April 4 0 5 0 1 1 0 1 0 1
May 52 6 703 4 14 21 5 704 3 34
June 394 43 6,004 30 16 173 37 11,175 44 65
July 384 42 11,427 57 15 229 49 12,241 48 53
August 53 6 1,408 7 27 31 7 1,424 6 46
September 7 1 49 0 7 3 1 57 0 19
October 2 0 10 0 5 0 0 0 0 0
December 1 0 52 0 52 1 0 52 0 52
Dateless 10 1 389 2 39 3 1 0 0 0
Ecor
egio
n
NS Coastal Plain 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
NS Foothills 107 12 3,237 16 30 52 11 3,208 13 62
Brooks Range 153 17 1,090 5 7 114 25 1,246 5 11
Kotzebue Lowlands 204 22 4,748 24 23 97 21 6,313 25 65
Seward Pen. 184 20 7,125 36 39 79 17 7,567 29 96
SW Alaska 258 28 3,838 19 15 120 26 7,322 29 61
Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Ph.D. MTRI
[email protected] (734) 913-6873
Nancy H.F. French , Ph.D. MTRI
[email protected] (734) 913-6844
Liza K. Jenkins MTRI
[email protected] (734) 913-6869
Tatiana Loboda, Ph.D. University of Maryland
[email protected] (301) 405-8891
