Passenger Transport Modelling [T1] · PDF file 2014-12-19 · Draft for Stakeholder...

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Transcript of Passenger Transport Modelling [T1] · PDF file 2014-12-19 · Draft for Stakeholder...

  • Passenger Transport Modelling [T1]

  • Draft for Stakeholder Comment – Passenger Transport Modelling [T1]

    Transport and Infrastructure Council | 2014 National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia ii

    Providing Feedback

    This draft document has been published for stakeholder feedback.

    Submissions are due Monday 9 February 2015

    All submissions should be in writing and preferably emailed to: NGTSM2014@infrastructure.gov.au

    Hard copy submissions can be sent to: NGTSM Steering Committee Secretariat National Guidelines for Transport System Management Commonwealth Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development GPO Box 594 CANBERRA ACT 2601

    For enquiries please contact the NGTSM Steering Committee Secretariat: NGTSM2014@infrastructure.gov.au | (02) 6274 7921

    Disclaimer

    This document is a draft for public comment. Please note that as a draft document it has not been approved by any jurisdiction, therefore should not be relied upon for any purpose. Until an approved revised edition is published in 2015, users should continue to be guided by the National Guidelines for Transport System Management released in 2006.

    mailto:NGTSM2014@infrastructure.gov.au mailto:NGTSM2014@infrastructure.gov.au

  • Draft for Stakeholder Comment – Passenger Transport Modelling [T1]

    Transport and Infrastructure Council | 2014 National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia iii

    Contents

    Passenger transport modelling .............................................................................................. 1

    1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 2

    2. Overview of transport modelling ...................................................................................... 3 2.1 Statement of Requirements ......................................................................................... 4

    2.1.1 Objectives of the model .................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Interfaces with other models ............................................................................. 4 2.1.3 Hierarchy of transport modelling applications .................................................... 5 2.1.4 Transport model attributes ................................................................................ 7 2.1.5 Transport model outputs ................................................................................... 8

    2.2 Functional Specification ............................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Transport model scope ..................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Transport model structure ................................................................................. 9

    2.3 Technical Specification ................................................................................................ 9 2.4 Transport modelling process ...................................................................................... 10 2.5 Alternatives to modelling ............................................................................................ 12

    3. Model design .................................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Modelling demand ..................................................................................................... 13

    3.1.1 Travel demands .............................................................................................. 13 3.1.2 Market segmentation ...................................................................................... 14 3.1.3 Peak periods ................................................................................................... 17

    3.2 The four step transport modelling process ................................................................. 17 3.2.1 Step 1 – Trip generation ................................................................................. 18 3.2.2 Step 2 – Trip distribution ................................................................................. 20 3.2.3 Step 3 – Mode choice ..................................................................................... 21 3.2.4 Step 4 – Trip assignment ................................................................................ 22

    3.3 Discrete choice models .............................................................................................. 23 3.5 Demand elasticities .................................................................................................... 28 3.6 Network models ......................................................................................................... 31

    3.6.1 Highway trip assignment ................................................................................. 31 3.6.2 Public transport assignment ............................................................................ 33 3.6.3 Traffic simulation methods .............................................................................. 33

  • Draft for Stakeholder Comment – Passenger Transport Modelling [T1]

    Transport and Infrastructure Council | 2014 National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia iv

    4. Data collection ................................................................................................................. 35 4.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 35 4.2 Travel demand surveys.............................................................................................. 35 4.3 Person travel demand data ........................................................................................ 36 4.4 Other data sources .................................................................................................... 37 4.5 Survey methodology and data requirements .............................................................. 38 4.6 Survey techniques ..................................................................................................... 39

    4.6.1 Direct personal interviews ............................................................................... 40 4.6.2 Questionnaire surveys .................................................................................... 41 4.6.3 Telephone and internet surveys ...................................................................... 42 4.6.4 Costs .............................................................................................................. 42 4.6.5 Revealed versus stated preferences ............................................................... 42

    4.7 Sample size estimation .............................................................................................. 43

    5. Model development ......................................................................................................... 46 5.1 Estimation techniques ................................................................................................ 46 5.2 Network checking ...................................................................................................... 51 5.3 Calibration and validation ........................................................................................... 52 5.4 Vehicle operating costs and the value of time ............................................................ 52 5.5 Generalised cost weightings ...................................................................................... 52 5.6 Matrix estimation........................................................................................................ 53 5.7 Transport network validation ...................................................................................... 53 5.8 Assignment validation ................................................................................................ 53 5.9 Model convergence ................................................................................................... 54 5.10 Transport model documentation ................................................................................ 55 5.11 Auditing ..................................................................................................................... 56

    6. Forecasting and evaluation ............................................................................................. 58 6.1 Projection of demand growth ..................................................................................... 58 6.2 Forecast horizon ........................................................................................................ 59 6.3 Network options ......................................................................................................... 60 6.4 Induced benefits ........................................................................................................ 60 6.5 Sensitivity tests .......................................................................................................... 60

    Appendix A Transport modelling process ....................................................................... 61 Appendix B Reference (Base) model validation criteria ................................................. 64 Appendix C Induced benefits calculation ........................................................................ 66 Appendix D Model audit checklist