Partisans vs. Independents Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs Partisans vs. Independents As of 2008: Strong D19 Weak D15 Ind D1751 D Ind1111 I Ind R1237 R Weak R13 Strong R13 Partisanship trends Partisans vs. Independents When we lump independent leaners in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984 Slight GOP gain some oscillation What about those independents? Partisans vs. Independents Trends in US Party ID; Independents vs. Partisans Partisans vs. Independents What do these responses mean? Party Identification strongest predictor of voting learned early, social transmition rarely changes over lifetime see F&Z figures Partisans vs. Independents Funnel of Partisanship Causality social background Party attachments Values Groups campaign events vote Time (years & years) Partisans vs. Independents Partisans identify w/ party early identification stronger over lifetime partisans more interested in politics Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of voting than ever 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party hence, elections somewhat predictable Partisans vs. Independents Independents fastest growing group of voters leaners ID as independent but say they are closer to one particular party Leaners may act more partisan than weak partisans sometimes Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R Highly interested Partisans vs. Independents Independents but, independents less happy w/ choices than weak or strong partisans more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice Important aspect of dealignment more independents, who are more volitile Partisans vs. Independents Does a party represent you reasonably well Partisans vs. Independents Anderson (+ others) 1980 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R Perot 1992 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of weak Rs Nader 2000 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps 0% from weak/strong partisans