Part Four: The World’s Most Important Arithmetic What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet.

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Part Four: The World’s Most Important Arithmetic What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Transcript of Part Four: The World’s Most Important Arithmetic What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet.

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Part Four:

The World’s Most Important Arithmetic

What Every Citizen Should

Know About Our Planet

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Copyright Randolph Femmer, 1999.All rights reserved.

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that we literally interpret the world using this

Unfortunately, we are so thoroughly

trained in this type of mathematics

In virtually all our public schooling we are taught a mathematics

that applies to our daily lives.

Grocery-Store Arithmetic

GROCERY-STORE ARITHMETIC

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the world’s most important arithmetic

Dr. Albert Bartlett of the University of Coloradohas called exponential mathematics

There is a more powerful kind of mathematics

called ‘ exponential mathematics. ‘

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� explosions� nuclear detonations� monetary inflation� runaway growth of cancer cells and

� compounding interest rates

Exponential mathematics describes :

ApplicationsApplications

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� the pH scale in chemistry� the Richter earthquake scale in geology� nuclear decay rates in radioactive atoms� rates of resource consumption� human population growth

and � dinoflagellate red-tides in the sea.

Exponential mathematics also applies to:

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Unfortunately, the same mathematics thatdescribes a nuclear detonation also

describeshuman population growth.

GrowthGrowth

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A graph of the fission events inside

a nuclear detonation

has a shape which isnearly identical

to a graph of human population growth

over the past 10,000 years.

Is This Important?

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Exponential mathematics is extremely

For example:

Exponential fission events inside an atomic bomb

destroyed the city of Hiroshima, Japan at the end

of World War II...

and runaway monetary inflation can destroy an

economic system...or topple a government.

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Might exponential mathematicshave planet-wide impacts?

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Exponential number sequences

help usbetter understand human impacts on the natural world

in the decades ahead.

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Fortunately, understanding the behavior of exponential number sequences can be achieved easily.

Two or three riddles will be our key.

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� Example: 3...6...9...12...15...18...21...etc.� Example: 5...10...15...20...25...30...35...etc.

Arithmetic number sequences grow larger by repeated additions of like amounts.

Grocery-Store Arithmetic

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� Example: 3...6...9...12...15...18...21...etc.� Example: 5...10...15...20...25...30...35...etc.

Arithmetic number sequences grow larger by repeated additions of like amounts.

Grocery-Store Arithmetic

Push Here

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Now:

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By repeated additions of$1000 per day.

You will only receive the salary for 30 days.

2005Suppose you are offered

a salary that grows LARGER arithmetically.

An Riddle An Riddle

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Like this

What will be your total earnings for days 1 - 7?

Answer:

Day one: $1,000

Day two: $2,000

Day three: $3,000

Day four: $4,000

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An SalaryAn Salary

Day one: $1,000

Day two: $2,000

Day three: $3,000

Day four: $4,000

How much will you earn on day 30?

Answer:

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An SalaryAn Salary

How much will you earn on day 30?

Answer: Push Here

Day one: $1,000

Day two: $2,000

Day three: $3,000

Day four: $4,000

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What We Are Used To

How much will you earn during the 30 days of your employ?

Answer:

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What We Are Used To

We use them almost every day.

Numbers in an arithmetic number sequenceare easy to understand.

We are usedto them.

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using a salary that grows

The same riddleagain

Now:

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Exponential number sequences grow by repeated multiplications by like amounts.

Example: 1...10...100...1000...10,000...etc.

Example: 1...2...4...8...16...32...64...etc.( Notice we multiplied by two each time.)

( Notice we multiplied by ten each time.)

An Salary An Salary

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00

An SalaryAn Salary

Push Here

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but your salary grows exponentially…by doubling each day.

Imagine that you are offered a starting salary of one cent per day.

Assume your employ lasts only 30 days....

2005

An SalaryAn Salary

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Initial Numbers Are Deceptively Small

Day one: 1 centDay two: 2 centsDay three: 4 centsDay four: 8 cents

How much will you earn on day seven?

Answer:

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Initial Numbers Are Deceptively Small

Day one: 1 centDay two: 2 centsDay three: 4 centsDay four: 8 cents

What will be your total earnings for the first week?

Answer:

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The Second Week

Answer:

How much will you earn on day ten?

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The Second Week

Answer:

What will be your total earnings after two full weeks ...(days 1 - 14)….?

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Click Here

This exponential salary begins with exceptionally-small numbers.

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Deceptive and MisleadingDeceptive and Misleading

The growth of the numbers using “grocery-store” arithmetic was large -- and straight-forward -- right from the outset.

The exponential salary, however, begins with numbers that are so small that they seem harmless or unimportant.

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Suddenly Larger

What is your salary for day 16?

Answer:

Notice the numbers are now somewhat larger.

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Suddenly

Answer:

Notice the sudden increaseafter three weeks.

How much are you paid for your work on day 21?

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Disaster occurs in week four.

What is your pay for day 28?

Disaster In Week Four

Answer:

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How much do you earnon day 30?

Disaster In Week Four

Answer:

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and that salary grows exponentially by doubling each

day for thirty days....

If you are given a salary of one cent per day....

what is your total salary for the month?

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What Is Your Month’s Total?

Answer:

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One cent, growing exponentially (by doubling each day for 30 days) will result in

in one month.

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Only a lucky few will ever earn a salary that grows by $1,000 per day.

...Never......Never...

(Most employers would never accept such a salary arrangement.)

An Salary? An Salary?

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It at least seems possible that someone’s busy and distracted boss

-- somewhere

An Salary?

mightagree to an exponential salary

Why?

...MaybeMaybe...

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Because exponential growth isBecause exponential growth isnot only powerful, it is alsonot only powerful, it is also

and

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The initial numbers in an exponentialnumber sequence are so small that they

harmlessor

unimportant.

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Push Here

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first grow slowly

then suddenly explode into

enormous values.

Numbers that are extremely small at the outset...

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The devastating effects of numbers that grow exponentiallyexponentially occur LATELATE in the sequence.

By the time danger becomes apparent, it can be

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like the detonation of the Hiroshima bomb.

like thesecond salary...

Human population growth over the

past 10,000 years has been

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Like The Hiroshima Bomb

Push Here

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A Linear GraphA Linear Graph

Arithmetic number sequences producegraphs which are straight lines...

( “linear” ).

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The ‘ J-Curve: ’An Exponential Graph

number sequences producegraphs called

J-curves

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19991999

18001800

16501650

190019001 1 A.DA.D..

Year

In Billions

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Year

In Billions

Click Here

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A Mathematical Fire-AlarmA Mathematical Fire-Alarm

A J-curve is the mathematical equivalent of a fire-alarm going

off in a burning building.

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It warns usof

potentially-devastating

effects

no matter how small the

numbers may seem at first.

A Mathematical Fire-AlarmA Mathematical Fire-Alarm

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Click Here: 1

Click Here: 2

A Mathematical Fire-AlarmA Mathematical Fire-Alarm

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A Million vs. a Billion Arithmetic number sequences:

repeated additions Exponential number sequences:

repeated multiplications Powerful, misleading, and deceptive Linear graphs vs. J-curves A mathematical “fire alarm”

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wishes to thank and acknowledge

Randolph Femmer

who authored and developed this presentation