Parliamentary parties september 2011
28
The University of Nottingham The Coalition in Parliament: Two Wobbly Wings Professor Philip Cowley
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Transcript of Parliamentary parties september 2011
The University of Nottingham
The Coalition in Parliament: Two Wobbly Wings
Professor Philip Cowley
Post-war rebellion rates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Post-war rebellion rates, first sessions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Post-war rebellion rates, first sessions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Post-war rebellion rates, first sessions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
501
94
5
19
50
19
51
19
55
19
59
19
64
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
74
O
19
79
19
83
19
87
19
92
19
97
20
01
20
05
20
10
LD
C
Post-war rebellion rates, new governments
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
501
94
5
19
50
19
51
19
55
19
59
19
64
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
74
O
19
79
19
83
19
87
19
92
19
97
20
01
20
05
20
10
LD
C
Most rebels are Tories (obviously)
Name Dissentingvotes
Philip Hollobone 74
David Nuttall 54
Philip Davies 47
Peter Bone 40
Richard Shepherd 35
Christopher Chope 35
William Cash 35
Andrew Turner 34
Bernard Jenkin 28
Julian Lewis 24
Top rebels all Tories
But most Lib Dems have now rebelled (and only a minority of Tories)
Very high turnover in MPs in 2010 (esp on Conservative benches)
2010 intake
Pre-2010 MPs
2010 intake
Pre-2010 MPs
A majority of Conservative rebels are from the new intake
2010 intake
Pre-2010 MPs
Conservative new rebels very rebellious
2010 intake
Pre-2010 MPs
Name Dissentingvotes
David Nuttall 54
Andrew Percy 23
Mark Reckless 21
Zac Goldsmith 17
Richard Drax 12
Jacob Rees-Mogg 11
Gordon Henderson 10
Jason McCartney 10
Martin Vickers 10
Steve Baker 9
Top ten new Tory rebels
Conservatives and Lib Dems rebel at different times
...and on different things
63% on constitutional policy
83% on social policy
...including Europe
44% on constitutional policy
83% on social policy19% on Europe
Government majority
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40
60
80
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120
140
160
Paper Mean Median
Government majority, by Labour stance
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50
100
150
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450
500
Against (238) Abstain (44) For (23)
Direction of rebellion
All Con revolts
LD revolts
Labour against 78 64 83
Labour not against 22 37 17
A majority of 80+ is larger than:
Churchill (after 1951)EdenWilson (except 1966–70)HeathCallaghanThatcher (1979-1983)Major (1992-1997)Blair/Brown (2005-2010)
Frequency: Conservatives most rebellious of three main parties
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5
10
15
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25
30
35
Lab LD Con
Average size: Labour most rebellious of three main parties
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Lab LD Con
Average relative size: Lib Dems most rebellious of three main parties
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1
2
3
4
5
6
Lab LD Con
A minority came from the A list
A list
Others
A list MPs less likely to rebel
2010 intake, A list 2010 intake, others
And more likely to be promoted
2010 intake, A list 2010 intake, others
A list MPs still less likely to rebel, even allowing for promotions
2010 intake, A list 2010 intake, others
New MPs rebellion rates
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10
20
30
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60
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80
Lab LD Con
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