pantry Morgan_Keegan_2008_Equity_Conference

26
The Pantry, Inc. Morgan Keegan 2008 Equity Conference September 5, 2008

Transcript of pantry Morgan_Keegan_2008_Equity_Conference

The Pantry, Inc.

Morgan Keegan 2008 Equity Conference

September 5, 2008

1

Safe Harbor Statement

Some of the statements in this presentation constitute “forward-lookingstatements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act

of 1995. All statements other than those of historical facts included herein,including those related to the company’s financial outlook, goals, business

strategy, projected plans and objectives of management for future operationsand liquidity, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking

statements are based on the company’s plans and expectations and involve anumber of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to vary

materially from the results and events anticipated or implied by such forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company’s Annual Report on Form

10-K and its other filings with the SEC for a discussion of significant riskfactors applicable to the company. In addition, the forward-looking

statements included in this presentation are based on the company’sestimates and plans as of the date of this presentation. While the companymay elect to update these forward-looking statements at some point in the

future, it specifically disclaims any obligation to do so.

2

Our Business

Leading independently operatedconvenience store chain in theSoutheast and 3rd largest in the U.S.

1,660 stores located across 11states

Primarily branded Kangaroo Express

Last twelve months as of June 26,2008 sales of $8.5 billion and LTMEBITDA of $218 million

Stores offer a broad selection ofmerchandise, motor fuel and foodservice offerings designed to meetconvenience needs of consumers

3

Leading market positions in attractive Southeastern markets

Significant scale advantages vs. primary competitors

Benefiting from consumer trends toward convenience formats

Leveraging infrastructure to drive profitability and future growth

Attractive sector growth and consolidation potential

Key Investment Highlights

Strong Cash Flow Generation to Reinvest in Our Business, DeStrong Cash Flow Generation to Reinvest in Our Business, De--lever and Drive Earnings Growthlever and Drive Earnings Growth

4

U.S. CU.S. C--Store Sales and GrowthStore Sales and Growth (1)(1)

_____________________(1) Source: NACS 2007 NACS State of the Industry Report and Retail Forward, Inc.(2) Source: Retail Forward, Inc. CAGR for 5-year period from 2001-2006.

Attractive Industry Fundamentals

Large and rapidly growing sector

Defensive growth characteristics

Increasing consumer demand forsmaller-box, fill-in convenienceshopping

Relative to hypermarkets, largesupermarkets, etc.

Increasing amount of foodconsumed away-from-home andon-the-run

Highly fragmented market withample consolidation opportunities

$79 $89 $93 $100 $134 $165 $171 $181 $221$75 $77 $81 $86

$409$364

$330$263

$109$112$104$100

$116

$132

$160$169

$145

$727

$577

$524$475

$395

$337$290$283$269

$234$186$174$166$154

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

$700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011E

($ in Billions)

Gasoline In Store

Projected

CAGR = 5.9%

2.9%

(1.3%)

6.0%6.0%6.0%

7.4%

Covenience

Stores

Drug Stores Restaurants Total Retail Grocery

Stores

Discount

Department

Stores

Total Historical CAGR = 11.6%

In-Store Historical CAGR = 7.0%

55--Year InYear In--Store Sales CAGR vs. Other SectorsStore Sales CAGR vs. Other Sectors (1)(2)(1)(2)

5

PA0021GM_1.WOR

IndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndianaIndiana

North CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina

VirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaVirginiaKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentuckyKentucky

TennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennesseeTennessee

MississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippiMississippi

LouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisianaLouisiana

FloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFloridaFlorida

AlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabama

GeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgia

SouthSouthSouthSouthSouthSouthSouthSouthSouth

CarolinaCarolinaCarolinaCarolinaCarolinaCarolinaCarolinaCarolinaCarolina

IndianapolisIndianapolisIndianapolisIndianapolisIndianapolisIndianapolisIndianapolisIndianapolisIndianapolis

RaleighRaleighRaleighRaleighRaleighRaleighRaleighRaleighRaleigh

FrankfortFrankfortFrankfortFrankfortFrankfortFrankfortFrankfortFrankfortFrankfort

JacksonJacksonJacksonJacksonJacksonJacksonJacksonJacksonJackson

TallahasseeTallahasseeTallahasseeTallahasseeTallahasseeTallahasseeTallahasseeTallahasseeTallahassee

Baton RougeBaton RougeBaton RougeBaton RougeBaton RougeBaton RougeBaton RougeBaton RougeBaton Rouge

RichmondRichmondRichmondRichmondRichmondRichmondRichmondRichmondRichmond

MontgomeryMontgomeryMontgomeryMontgomeryMontgomeryMontgomeryMontgomeryMontgomeryMontgomery

AtlantaAtlantaAtlantaAtlantaAtlantaAtlantaAtlantaAtlantaAtlanta

ColumbiaColumbiaColumbiaColumbiaColumbiaColumbiaColumbiaColumbiaColumbia

DurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurham

ChesapeakeChesapeakeChesapeakeChesapeakeChesapeakeChesapeakeChesapeakeChesapeakeChesapeake

PaducahPaducahPaducahPaducahPaducahPaducahPaducahPaducahPaducah

ClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonVicksburgVicksburgVicksburgVicksburgVicksburgVicksburgVicksburgVicksburgVicksburg

MeridianMeridianMeridianMeridianMeridianMeridianMeridianMeridianMeridian

TampaTampaTampaTampaTampaTampaTampaTampaTampa

OrlandoOrlandoOrlandoOrlandoOrlandoOrlandoOrlandoOrlandoOrlando

GulfportGulfportGulfportGulfportGulfportGulfportGulfportGulfportGulfport

NorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolk

HamptonHamptonHamptonHamptonHamptonHamptonHamptonHamptonHampton

ArlingtonArlingtonArlingtonArlingtonArlingtonArlingtonArlingtonArlingtonArlington

WilmingtonWilmingtonWilmingtonWilmingtonWilmingtonWilmingtonWilmingtonWilmingtonWilmington

St. PetersburgSt. PetersburgSt. PetersburgSt. PetersburgSt. PetersburgSt. PetersburgSt. PetersburgSt. PetersburgSt. Petersburg

Daytona BeachDaytona BeachDaytona BeachDaytona BeachDaytona BeachDaytona BeachDaytona BeachDaytona BeachDaytona Beach

JacksonvilleJacksonvilleJacksonvilleJacksonvilleJacksonvilleJacksonvilleJacksonvilleJacksonvilleJacksonville

NashvilleNashvilleNashvilleNashvilleNashvilleNashvilleNashvilleNashvilleNashville

Boca RatonBoca RatonBoca RatonBoca RatonBoca RatonBoca RatonBoca RatonBoca RatonBoca Raton

MiamiMiamiMiamiMiamiMiamiMiamiMiamiMiamiMiami

Bowling GreenBowling GreenBowling GreenBowling GreenBowling GreenBowling GreenBowling GreenBowling GreenBowling Green

CovingtonCovingtonCovingtonCovingtonCovingtonCovingtonCovingtonCovingtonCovington

1,660 Stores Located in Eleven Southeastern States as of June 26, 2008

Leading Convenience Store Retailer Concentrated inthe Southeastern United States

NY0010DP_1.WOR

Pantry Store Locations

_____________________Note: Map as of fiscal year ended September 27, 2007.

6

Key Markets Possess Highly Attractive GrowthCharacteristics

_____________________(1) Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2007 NACS State of the Industry Report.(2) Note: Pantry’s store counts as of quarter ended June 26, 2008.

Core Markets Projected to Experience Rapid Growth Throughout NexCore Markets Projected to Experience Rapid Growth Throughout Next Several Years;t Several Years;High Degree of Fragmentation Provides Continued Consolidation OpHigh Degree of Fragmentation Provides Continued Consolidation Opportunitiesportunities

21.1%

15.0%

9.5% 9.0% 9.1%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0%

Florida North

Carolina

South

Carolina

Tennessee U.S.

54%9%

31%

6%

58%

21%

14% 7%

52%

21%

17% 10%

60%20%

17%3%

Pantry

1 StoreOperators

2-50 StoreOperators

>50 StoreOperators

Pantry

1 StoreOperators

2-50 StoreOperators

>50 StoreOperators

Pantry

1 StoreOperators

2-50 StoreOperators

>50 StoreOperators

Pantry

1 StoreOperators

2-50 StoreOperators

>50 StoreOperators

FloridaFlorida(7,356 stores)(7,356 stores)

North CarolinaNorth Carolina(5,447 stores)(5,447 stores)

South CarolinaSouth Carolina(2,872 stores)(2,872 stores)

TennesseeTennessee(3,697 stores)(3,697 stores)

Population Growth CAGRs (2005-2015) (1)

(2) Pantry Stores: 455 388 282 104 1,660

Market Fragmentation (1)

7

$1,640$1,576

$1,386

$1,229$1,170

$1,010

0

500

1,000

1,500

$2,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

Merchandise RevenueMerchandise Revenue

2,1292,033

1,758

1,497

1,372

1,161

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

($ in mm) (Gallons in mm)

CAGR ’03 – ’07 = 11.8%

CAGR ’03 – ’07 = 15.0%

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Last twelve months as of June 26, 2008.

$8,502

$6,911

$5,962

$4,429

$3,493

$2,750

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

$9,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

($ in mm)

Retail Gas Gallons SoldRetail Gas Gallons Sold Total RevenueTotal Revenue

Fiscal Year

Strong Track Record of Top Line Growth…

CAGR’03 – ’07 = 25.9%

8

$586

$518$449$425

$366

$606

$220

$145

$225$281

$214

$165

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

$900

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

Merchandise Gasoline

Reported EBITDAReported EBITDAGross ProfitGross Profit

$218

$136

$173

$214

$279

$214

0

50

100

150

200

250

$300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

$511

$591

$663

$779$811 $826

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Last twelve months as of June 26, 2008.

($ in mm) ($ in mm)

…And Substantial EBITDA Generation

’03-’07CAGR

11.6%

12.5%

9

$792

$857

$898

$954

$999 $996

700

750

800

850

900

950

$1,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

Average Merchandise Sales per Store($ in Thousands)

Improved Store Portfolio and Stronger Consumer OfferingImproved Store Portfolio and Stronger Consumer OfferingHave Driven Increased Average Merchandise Sales per StoreHave Driven Increased Average Merchandise Sales per Store

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Last twelve months for the quarter ending June 26, 2008.

Fiscal Year

Strong Growth in Merchandise Sales Per Store

Stores 1,258 1,361 1,400 1,493 1,644 1,660

CAGR ’03-’07: 6.0%

10

36.2% 36.3% 36.6%37.4% 37.2% 37.0%

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

Merchandise Gross Margin

Fiscal Year

Superior Merchandise Offering Leads to Above Average MarginsSuperior Merchandise Offering Leads to Above Average Margins

Industry

Avg.(1):

30.6%

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Last twelve months for the quarter ending June 26, 2008.(1) Industry average for 2007 based on the 2008 NACS State of the Industry Report.

Consistently Strong Merchandise MarginsConsistently Strong Merchandise Margins

Proprietary branded offerings

Private label products in high velocitycategories

Selective expansion of nationally brandedquick service restaurants (QSRs)

Leveraging scale with merchandisevendors

Merch. Comps 2.1% 3.4% 5.3% 4.9% 2.3% N/A

11

CelesteCeleste

Bean Street CoffeeBean Street Coffee

Proprietary Merchandise and Food Service ConceptsDrive Revenue and Margins

Candy LaneCandy Lane

Grilling Depot & Chill ZoneGrilling Depot & Chill Zone

12

We Currently Operate 236 Nationally Branded andWe Currently Operate 236 Nationally Branded andProprietary Quick Service RestaurantsProprietary Quick Service Restaurants

QSR Food Service Offering Differentiates OurStores and Drives Traffic and Margins

13

$165

$214$225

$145

$220

$281

0

50

100

150

200

250

$300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

941

1,026

1,118

1,242

1,306 1,309

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

We Balance Average Gallons Sold Per Store and Gasoline MarginsWe Balance Average Gallons Sold Per Store and Gasoline Marginsto Maximize Overall Gross Profit Dollarsto Maximize Overall Gross Profit Dollars

Gasoline Strategy Maximizes Fuel Gross Profit Dollars

Average Gallons Sold per Store Retail Gasoline Gross Profit $

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Last twelve months for the quarter ending June 26, 2008.(1) Net of credit card fees and repairs and maintenance. Last twelve months excludes per gallon loss on hedging operations in Q2 and Q3 of 1.6¢ and 0.3¢, respectively.

(Gallons in Thousands) ($ in mm)

Comps 0.7% 2.0% 4.7% 3.1% 1.0% N/A CPG(1)

12.5¢ 12.0¢ 14.3¢ 15.9¢ 10.9¢ 10.7¢

CAGR ’03 – ’07 = 8.3%

CAGR ’03 – ’07 = 11.6%

14

$58.74

$90.61

$97.59

$146.65

$109.71

$75.13$60.13

$63.34 $63.82 $65.44

$60.74$70.89$70.95

$124.47

$53.58$50.03

0.00

25.00

50.00

75.00

100.00

125.00

$150.00

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 7/11/08Current

Avg.

Cru

de

Oil

Price

per

Barr

el

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

$5.00A

vg.

Reta

ilP

rice

per

Gasolin

eG

allo

n

Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Graph updated through September 2, 2008.Source: FactSet. Data represent average futures contract price per barrel of light sweet crude and national average retail price per gasoline gallon.

FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008

Recent Inflation and Volatility in Oil and Gas Prices

(Peak)

Avg. Crude Oil Price per Barrel Avg. Retail Price per Gasoline Gallon

% 3 Months

Prior to Peak

Since

Peak

Oil +33% (25%)

Gas +23% (12%)

15

9.0¢

10.7¢

0.3¢10.5¢

12.8¢

11.4¢

8.6¢

14.0¢14.6¢

9.9¢

12.3¢

19.4¢

21.2¢

11.1¢10.6¢

17.3¢

1.6¢

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5¢

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

10.6¢11.0¢

Recent Margins Impacted by Higher Credit Card Fees and Fuel MainRecent Margins Impacted by Higher Credit Card Fees and Fuel Maintenance Expenses,tenance Expenses,As Well As Losses on Fuel Hedging Activities in Q2 and Q3 2008As Well As Losses on Fuel Hedging Activities in Q2 and Q3 2008

Our Quarterly Retail Gasoline CPG (Net of Credit Card Fees and Repairs and Maintenance)

FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends September.(1) Q2 and Q3 include per gallon loss on hedging operations of 1.6¢ and 0.3¢, respectively.

Gasoline CPG Can Be Volatile on a Quarterly Basis…

(1)Net CPG Hedging Loss

(1)

16

12.0¢

10.4¢

12.5¢13.2¢

12.3¢

13.4¢12.8¢ 12.5¢

14.3¢

15.9¢

10.9¢

5.0

8.0

11.0

14.0

17.0

20.0¢

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Fiscal Year

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Shaded area represents average historical CPG range.CPG is net of credit card fees and repairs and maintenance

…But Annual CPG Tends to Remain Relatively Stable

Annual Net CPG Margins Typically Range from 10Annual Net CPG Margins Typically Range from 10¢¢ –– 1313¢¢

17

Current Operating Initiatives Intended to Address ChallengingEnvironment and Improving Strategic Flexibility

Return to Growth FocusReturn to Growth Focus

Collectively, We Believe These Actions Have Better Positioned UsCollectively, We Believe These Actions Have Better Positioned Us to Leverage Our Operatingto Leverage Our OperatingModel and Drive TopModel and Drive Top--line and Earnings Growth when the Market Environment Improvesline and Earnings Growth when the Market Environment Improves

ConsumerConsumerHeadwindsHeadwinds

Increasing vendor-supported promotional activity

Focusing promotions on high-velocity, high-return categories

Margin / ProfitabilityMargin / ProfitabilityPressurePressure

Financial FlexibilityFinancial Flexibility

Accelerated ethanol roll-out

Fuel price strategy maximizing total gross profit dollars

Meaningfully reducing store level and corporate overhead

Bolstered liquidity by accessing delayed draw on term loan

Substantially reduced non-essential capex

Temporarily suspended share repurchases

Challenge Key Initiatives / Action Taken

18

Reorganized field management structure to streamline operations

Improved overall quality / efficiency of staffing

Improved store-level controllable expenses

Reduced bad check expense

Lowered cash over and short by moving to prepaid on gasoline

Tangible financial results achieved, more expected throughout the year

Reduced store operating expenses in Q3 by $6.4 million or 4.8%

Reduced corporate overhead spend in Q3 by $4.8 million or 17.6% despite adding 16

stores

Lowered FY08 OG&A guidance by $28mm-$33mm from our original FY08 guidance

Initiative Maximizes Operating Expense Leverage and Better PositInitiative Maximizes Operating Expense Leverage and Better Positions Us for Profitable Growthions Us for Profitable Growthas Market Conditions Improveas Market Conditions Improve

Focus on Reducing Operating Expenses

19

Lease Finance Obligations Cause Valuation andLeverage Confusion

Adjusting EBITDA by Treating SaleAdjusting EBITDA by Treating Sale--Leasebacks as Operating Leases and Subtracting SaleLeasebacks as Operating Leases and Subtracting Sale--Leaseback Rent Allows for Better Comparison to Other RetailersLeaseback Rent Allows for Better Comparison to Other Retailers

Balance Sheet Data as of 6/26/08Reported Adjustments Adjusted

Total Debt (ex. Lease Finance Obligations) $848 $848

Cash ($162) ($162)

Net Debt (ex. Lease Finance Obligations) $686 $686

Lease Finance Obligations $462 ($462) –

Total Net Debt $1,148 ($462) $686

Market Cap 8/19/08 $408 $408

Enterprise Value $1,556 ($462) $1,094

LTM EBITDA as of 6/26/08 $218 ($46) $173

EV / EBITDA Multiple 7.1x 6.3x

Total Net Debt/EBITDA 5.3x 4.0x

20

Meaningful liquidity

$162 million in cash-on-hand

$225 million revolver – $0 drawn, over $142 million available after LOCs

Long-term debt profile; earliest maturity is the convertible debt in November 2012

Covenant-light bank facility – financial flexibility (1)

6.5x Adj. Net Debt / EBITDAR Leverage – Currently 5.8x

2.25x Interest Coverage – Currently 2.53x

_____________________Note: Balance Sheet data as of June 26, 2008.(1) Per credit facility covenant calculations (8x rent methodology).

Meaningful Liquidity / Financial Flexibility

21

Merchandise revenues expected to grow to $1.62 – $1.65 billion

Merchandise gross margin expected to be between 36.8% and 37.0%

Retail gas gallons sold expected to be approximately 2.1 billion gallons

Retail gas margin expected between 10 and 12 cents per gallon

Operating, general and administrative expenses expected between $605 –

$610 million

Capital expenditures expected to be $90 million

Full Year Impact of 2007 Acquisitions Driving Revenue Growth inFull Year Impact of 2007 Acquisitions Driving Revenue Growth in 2008;2008;Continuing Discipline on Expenses Should Lower OG&A and Drive EaContinuing Discipline on Expenses Should Lower OG&A and Drive Earningsrnings

Fiscal 2008 Financial Outlook Unchanged

22

Leading market positions in attractive Southeastern markets

Significant scale advantages vs. primary competitors

Benefiting from consumer trends toward convenience formats

Leveraging infrastructure to drive profitability and future growth

Attractive sector growth and consolidation potential

Key Investment Highlights

Strong Cash Flow Generation to Reinvest in Our Business, DeStrong Cash Flow Generation to Reinvest in Our Business, De--lever and Drive Earnings Growthlever and Drive Earnings Growth

23

($ in mm)

LTM

Jun-08 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

Adjusted EBITDA $173 $178 $254 $189 $150 $127

Payments made for lease finance obligations 46 36 25 24 23 13

Cumulative effect adjustment - - - - - (3)

Reported EBITDA $218 $214 $279 $214 $173 $136

Interest expense, net and loss on extinguishment of debt (88) (74) (56) (54) (87) (60)

Depreciation and amortization (108) (96) (76) (64) (61) (56)

Provision for income taxes (8) (17) (57) (37) (9) (9)

Net income $15 $27 $89 $58 $16 $11

Adjusted EBITDA/EBITDA Reconciled to Net Income

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Last twelve months as of June 26, 2008.

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures

24

($ in mm)

LTM

Jun-08 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

Adjusted EBITDA $173 $178 $254 $189 $150 $127

Payments made for lease finance obligations 46 36 25 24 23 13

Cumulative effect adjustment - - - - - (3)

Reported EBITDA $218 $214 $279 $214 $173 $136

Interest expense, net and loss on extinguishment of debt (88) (74) (56) (54) (87) (60)

Provision for income taxes (8) (17) (57) (37) (9) (9)

Non-cash stock based compensation 3 4 3 - - -

Changes in operating assets and liabilities 8 8 (13) (7) - (20)

Non-cash loss on extinguishment of debt - 2 2 - 23 3

Other 6 4 (3) 19 17 19

Net cash provided by operating activities $140 $141 $154 $134 $117 $69

Net cash used in investing activities ($150) ($529) ($219) ($166) ($227) ($24)

Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities $94 $339 $74 $36 $145 ($14)

Adjusted EBITDA/EBITDA Reconciled to Cash Flows

_____________________Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Last twelve months as of June 26, 2008.

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures

25

The Pantry, Inc.

Morgan Keegan 2008 Equity Conference

September 5, 2008