PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special...

15
”Consequences for Nordic real estate?” Coronavirus (Covid-19) MARCH 2020 PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH

Transcript of PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special...

Page 1: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

”Consequences for Nordic real estate?” Coronavirus (Covid-19)

MARCH 2020

PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH

Page 2: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

2

Pangea Property Partners

The coronavirus is striking the Nordic region right now, starting a chain of negative reactions. The first infections in the Nordics were reported in the

beginning of February and with a similar development as China, the peak will be in early April.

We have already seen a significant hit on the Nordic stock market with the all-share index down 30% and listed real estate down 46% since the all-time

high in mid February. Stock market volatility and capital market uncertainty is also on the same high level as during the financial crisis.

The overall consequences for the Nordic economy are difficult to foresee, but include lower GDP growth in 2020 (1.5-3.0% according to the latest reports),

weaker local currencies (4-15% against EUR last month) and a sharp decline in long-term interest rates (0.2-0.5% last month). In addition, the drastic dip in oil

price creates a ”double hit” on the Norwegian economy.

All asset classes will be negatively affected and repriced following higher risk premiums. However, there are mitigating factors for real estate such as small

immediate income effects (due to existing lease agreements) and continued ultra-low interest rates. In addition, Nordic real estate might be seen as a safe

haven for investors, supported by weak local currencies, and strong public finances can contribute to a faster recovery.

We expect the transaction market to slow down in Q2 due to a “wait and see”-attitude among investors and potential financing constraints. If the market

normalizes, there might be a catch-up effect in the second half of 2020. There should also be a larger price differentiation between core and secondary assets.

Summary

Hotel: Significant negative consequences for hotel and hospitality. Tourism expected to decline drastically and hotel bookings down 50-80% in many Nordic

cities, plus most major conferences and events called off or postponed. Generally long leases, but tenants expected to renegotiate their terms.

Retail: Imminent risk of lower consumption and fewer people visiting public places such as shopping centers, with possible restrictions from the municipalities

(“no-go areas”). Pressured retailers might seek short-term rent reductions and turnover-based leases make property owners getting hit directly. However,

substantial upswing for ecommerce of grocery and necessities.

Office: Limited direct impact on the office sector, but lower occupier demand expected in the short-term and possible rental losses in some segments. In the

long-term, possible downward pressure on rents and more focus on flexible workspaces, possibilities to work from home and health-certified buildings.

Logistics: Short-term risk of lower demand for goods and transportations, plus disruptions in the supply chains. However, generally long lease agreements

reduce the impact on property owners. Long-term demand should also increase due to more flexible supply chains (multiple hubs) and larger inventories.

Residentials/public properties: Limited sector-specific problems. In relative terms, favourable outlook with stable demand from both investors and tenants.

GE

NE

RA

L C

OM

ME

NT

SS

EC

TO

R C

OM

ME

NT

S

Special report - Corona

Page 3: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Introduction

Special report - Corona

3

The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December 2019, by

the World Health Organization (WHO)

Currently, there are more than 180,000 people infected globally of which 81,000 in

China, 73,000 in Europe and 3,800 in the Nordic region

The infection rate in China peaked after slightly more than two months (in early

February) and the infection rate is now down to less than 20 persons per day

If we apply China’s infection rate on the rest of the world, we can expect the peak

to be at end of March, and in early April in the Nordics

However, all countries take different measures to stop the virus from spreading

further and the development is uncertain

The coronavirus spreading into Europe and the Nordic countries

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

TOTAL NUMBER OF INFECTED PERSONS

China Rest of world Nordics (right axis) 0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

INFECTION RATE, NUMBER ON INFECTED PERSONS PER DAY

China Rest of world Nordics (right axis)

Source: WHO. Adjusted figures for China due to changed reporting methodology on 17 February.

>5,000

500 – 5,000

100 – 500

<100

CORONA INFECTED ACROSS EUROPE (18 MARCH 2020)

~70 days

Page 4: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Economic stimulations

Special report - Corona

4

Overview of government support and actions in the Nordic countries so far

Powerful measures taken to limit the economic effects of the coronavirus in the Nordics

Sweden Norway Denmark Finland

Key policy rates

No change 125 bps decrease No change No change

Current rate at 0.0% Current rate at 0.25% Current rate at -0.75% Current rate at -0.5%

Bank liquidity & quantitative easing

SEK 500bn extra lending facility for banks to small and mid size companies

NOK 50bn in state guaranteed loans targeting small and mid size companies

Guarantee for 70% of bank lending to companies in affected industries

Almost EUR 8bn extra lending facility for state lending company Finnveras

SEK 300bn of additional asset purchasesNOK 50bn of bond purchases (reinstalling the Government Bond Fund)

DKK 50bn of additional asset purchasesEUR 500m of additional asset purchases

Bank capital requirements

Removal of countercyclical capital bufferReduced countercyclical capital buffer from 2.5% to 1.0%

Removal of countercyclical capital bufferRemoval of some capital and liquidity buffers in line with ECB

Estimated to increase lending capacity with SEK 800-900bn

Estimated to increase lending capacity with about DKK 200bn

Financial support

First round stimulus of SEK 300bn for municipalities, health care, taxes, etc.

Changes in taxes, state fees, loans for small and mid size companies, etc.

First round stimulus of DKK 125bn for guarantees, compensations, taxes, etc.

First round stimulus of EUR 15bn to health care, taxes, tourism, etc.

Additional SEK 5bn credit guarantees for the aviation and shipping industry

Additional NOK 6bn credit guarantees for the aviation industry (Norwegian, etc.)

Additional DKK 1.5bn credit guarantees for the aviation industry (SAS)

Additional EUR 600m for social and health care activities

Labour market

Compensating sick leave for two monthsCompensating temporarily laid off employees from day 3 to 20

Wage relief from day 1 in quarantine or sick leave

Income support for and changes rules for layoffs

Short-term layoffs introduced3M aid period for affected firms where government can pay 75% of salaries

Mo

ne

tary

act

ion

sF

isca

l act

ion

s

Page 5: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Earlier crises

5

The coronavirus compared to four other major crashes last 20 years

11 September

SARSUS & Chinatrade wars

US stock crash

Greece

NORDIC STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE AND VIX (2000-2020)

Source: Thomson Reuters, OMX, Pangea Research

FINANCIAL CRISIS

Nordic all-share: -52%

Nordic property shares: -66%

Nordic 10Y swap: -214 bps

Fear index peak (VIX): 81

2 3DOT-COM CRASH

Nordic all-share: -73%

Nordic property shares: -10%

Nordic 10Y swap: -155 bps

Fear index peak (VIX): 43

1THE 2011 CRASH

(BLACK MONDAY)

Nordic all-share: -27%Nordic property shares: -25%Nordic 10Y swap: -177 bpsFear index peak (VIX): 48

CHINA STOCK MARKET CRASH

Nordic all-share: -27%Nordic property shares: -17%Nordic 10Y swap: -109 bpsFear index peak (VIX): 42

4

Brexit

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VIX

OM

XS

30

Nordic all-share index (OMXS30) Fear index (VIX)

Special report - Corona

CORONAVIRUS

Nordic all-share: -30%Nordic property shares: -46%Nordic 10Y swap: -58 bpsFear index peak (VIX): 83

5

Page 6: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Economic impact

6

Overall consequences for the Nordic economy

Similar economic impact on the Nordic countries as other regions, but strong public finances can contribute to a faster recovery

ECONOMIC GROWTH INTEREST RATES OIL PRICESTOCK MARKET

• Difficult to estimate the impact on

Nordic GDP but latest estimates

are between -1.5% and -3.0% for

2020 with a large dip in H1

• Rationale for large impact in the

Nordics: export-driven countries

dependent on foreign trade and

global supply chains

• Rationale for low impact: tourism

only 2-3% of Nordic GDP and

strong public finances that can

support the economies

• Weakening of local currencies

with NOK (15%) and SEK (4%)

down against EUR last month

• World price on oil dropping as

much as 60% to 23 USD per

barrel last month

• Mainly driven by the price war

between major oil producers, but

also reduced global demand

caused by the Coronavirus

• A ‘double hit’ for the Norwegian

economy where oil and gas

accounts for around 18% of GDP

• Should stimulate consumers and

industries in the long term, but

contributes to capital market

uncertainty in the short term

• Nordic stock market (OMX30)

down 30% from all-time high in

mid February with all sectors

showing negative returns

• Stock market volatility at the

same high level as during the

financial crisis

• Large net sales and many

investors building up cash

positions and liquidity

• Possible re-allocation to defensive

and non-cyclical sectors going

forward, e.g. health care, energy,

utilities and real estate

• Nordic 10Y swap rates down

30 bps on average last month and

very flat yield curves (even

converted in Norway)

• Ultra-low interest rates likely to

remain due to lower economic

growth and pressure to keep

stimulating the economy

• Key interest rates cuts in many

countries, including Norway

• Supports lower lending costs and

better company earnings over

time, but instant negative effect

on value of swap contracts

1.5-3.0% lower Nordic GDP

growth expected in 2020

24-60 bps decline in Nordic

10Y swap rates in last month

24-37% decline in Nordic stock

markets since the peak in February

60% lower oil price

in last month

Source: European Commission, OECD, Thomson Reuters, Pangea Research

Special report - Corona

Page 7: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Economic impact

7

Impact on the Nordic stock market and economy so far

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

31-Dec 13-Jan 26-Jan 8-Feb 21-Feb 5-Mar 18-Mar

%

NORDIC 10Y SWAP RATES

Sweden Norway Finland Denmark

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

31-Dec 13-Jan 26-Jan 8-Feb 21-Feb 5-Mar 18-Mar

NORDIC ALL-SHARE INDICES

Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Europe

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

31-Dec 13-Jan 26-Jan 8-Feb 21-Feb 5-Mar 18-Mar

US

D/b

bl

OIL PRICE INDICES

West Texas Intermediate Brent crude

-60%last month

-30 bpslast month

-30%from peak

Source: Thomson Reuters, OMX, Pangea Research. Nordic average highlighted in the circles.

Special report - Corona

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

31-Dec 13-Jan 26-Jan 8-Feb 21-Feb 5-Mar 18-Mar

NORDIC CURRENCIES

EUR/SEK EUR/NOK

-15%Last month(EUR/NOK)

Page 8: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

8

Large price drop for listed property shares (from high levels), less dramatic development expected on the direct market

TRANSACTION VOLUMES PROPERTY YIELDS LISTED REAL ESTATE SECTORREAL ESTATE FINANCING

• Lower transaction volumes

expected in Q2 due to general

“wait and see”-attitude among

investors and short term financing

constraints

• Probably more focus on typical

core properties and reduced

demand for secondary assets

(“flight to safety”)

• Inflow of foreign capital expected

to continue, supported by weaker

local currencies, but travel

restrictions being an obstacle

• Could give a bounce back in the

second half of 2020 if the market

stabilizes

• Nordic listed property sector

down 46% since the peak in mid

February, but almost flat

performance over last 12 months

• Hotel taking the largest hit but

also significant repricing of

companies with aggressive capital

structures

• Implied yields close to 5% on

average and the former large

premiums to NAV are replaced

with an almost 20% discount

• The development on the direct

market expected to be much less

dramatic than the stock market

• Potential credit losses and

problems in other sectors might

affect lending towards real estate

negatively

• Most critical for highly levered

companies and cash-strapped

developers

• Could increase demand for

alternative financing, e.g.

institutional lending

• Significant government support,

e.g. the Riksbank lending

SEK 500bn to Swedish companies

through the banking system

• Higher risk premiums and market

uncertainty should result in larger

price differentiation between

different assets and sectors

• More focus on the financial

stability of tenants and

guarantees/lease deposits

• Stable pricing on core assets

(public tenants, residentials, etc.)

while stressed sectors being

punished (hotel, airlines, travel

agencies, F&B, etc.)

• Potential bargain opportunities if

prices move more than actual

earnings, and record large yield

gap expected to widen further

Lower transaction volumes

expected in Q2 2020

Larger price differentiation

between core and secondary assets

Short-term uncertainty

regarding real estate financing

Repricing of sector, from

premium to discount

Source: European Commission, OECD, Thomson Reuters, Pangea Research

Special report - Corona

Real estate impact Overall consequences for Nordic real estate

Page 9: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

31-Dec 13-Jan 26-Jan 8-Feb 21-Feb 5-Mar 18-Mar

NORDIC PROPERTY SHARES BY COUNTRY

PREX Sweden PREX Norway PREX Finland

PREX Denmark PREX Nordics GPR 250 EUROPE

Real estate impact

9

Impact on the Nordic listed real estate sector so far

Special report - Corona

Source: Thomson Reuters, OMX, Pangea Research. Nordic average highlighted in the circles.

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

31-Dec 13-Jan 26-Jan 8-Feb 21-Feb 5-Mar 18-Mar

NORDIC PROPERTY SHARES BY SECTOR

PREX Office PREX Retail PREX Residential

PREX Warehouse PREX Mixed PREX Hotel Global

0.90x

1.00x

1.10x

1.20x

1.30x

1.40x

1.50x

1.60x

1.70x

1.80x

31-Dec 13-Jan 26-Jan 8-Feb 21-Feb 5-Mar 18-Mar

NORDIC PROPERTY SHARES VALUATION (P/B)

-46%from peak

-46%from peak

-0.77xfrom peak

* Global hotel property share index (only one company in the Nordics)

-42% -41%

-30%

-53%-58%

-43%-46%

-38%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

NORDIC SECTOR PERFORMANCE FROM PEAK

Page 10: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Real estate impact

10

Consequences for different property segments (page 1 of 2)

All property sectors affected differently, with the most urgent problems in the hotel sector

RETAIL

• Risk of lower consumption and

spending power affecting on

already pressured retail sector

• In addition, fewer people visiting

crowded places such as shopping

centers, and possible restrictions

from the municipalities (“no-go

areas”)

• Turnover-based leases common,

hitting retail owners more than

other property owners

• However, significant upswing for

ecommerce, especially groceries

and necessities

Negative effects for physical

stores, upswing for groceries

HOTEL

• Significant negative impact on

hotel and hospitality with large

layoffs already announced across

the Nordics

• Hotel bookings down 50-80% in

many markets and most major

conferences and events called off

or postponed

• Long lease agreements could

potentially mitigate the impact on

property owners

• However, many tenants expected

to renegotiate their lease terms

due to poor solvency

Significant negative effects

Source: Pangea Research

Special report - Corona

DEVELOPMENT

• Short term risk of delays in new

constructions and development

projects due to disruptions in

global supply chains and limited

access to foreign work force

• In addition, potential problems

associated with financing and

capital liquidity

• Probably increased demand for

more flexible and domestic

supply chains in the long-term

• Might change focus from co-ops

to affordable rental apartments

and student housing

Risk of delayed productions

OFFICE

Limited negative effects

• Fairly limited overall impact on

the office sector

• Somewhat lower net take-up in

the short-term expected due to

tenants being uncertain about

their future area needs

• Potential rent losses concentrated

to certain sectors, and property

owners expected to be flexible to

avoid bankruptcies

• In the long-term, probably more

focus on flexible workspaces,

possibilities to work on remote

and health-certified buildings

Page 11: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Real estate impact

11

Consequences for different property segments (page 2 of 2)

Very limited income effects on residential and public sector properties, and increased long-term demand for logistics and data storage

PUBLIC SECTOR PROPERTIES

• Limited sector-specific negative

effects with continued need for

public sector services

• Low risk of rent losses due to

government tenants and publicly

funded operations (also when

schools and other buildings shut

down for a period)

• Should reinforce the view of

public sector properties as a safe

core asset

• In the long-term, probably more

focus on health aspects in the

buildings

Very limited negative effects

DATA STORAGE

• Increased global demand for data

storage and cloud services when

people start working from home

• The Nordics viewed as an ideal

region for data storage due to a

cold climate and access to skilled

workforce and green energy

• Some large establishments

recently, but still a very small

property segment (less than

1% of the transaction market)

• More cost sensitive towards

energy prices than other

property segments

Increased demand

Source: Pangea Research

Special report - Corona

LOGISTICS

• Risk of generally lower demand

for transportation of goods and

disruptions in the supply chains

affecting the tenants

• However, generally long leases

reduce the short-term impact on

property owners

• In the long-term, demand for

logistics space should increase

due to need for more flexible

supply chains (multiple hubs) and

larger inventories

• Speculative new construction

might decrease

Limited negative effects,

long-term demand should increase

RESIDENTIAL

Very limited negative effects

• Limited sector-specific negative

effects with unaffected strong

underlying demand for rental

apartments

• On the investment market, a

general “flight to safety”-trend

might reinforce the view of rental

apartments as a core asset

• Risk of lower new construction in

the short-term could contribute

to an already existing housing

shortage in some markets

• Demand for forward funding

structures might change

Page 12: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

Real estate impact

12

Schematic illustration of the Coronavirus impact on different sectors

Source: Pangea Research

REAL ESTATE IMPACT BY SEGMENT

Sector impact

Low Medium High

Me

diu

m

Se

cto

r si

ze

Larg

eS

mall Hotel

OfficeResidential

Logistics

Industrial

Public sector properties

Development

LARGE OVERALL IMPACT

LARGE SECTOR IMPACT

SMALL SECTOR IMPACT

SMALL OVERALL IMPACT

Special report - Corona

Limited negative effects for the largest property sectors – residential, office and public sector properties

Data storage

Retail (non-food)

Page 13: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Pangea Property Partners

13

Source: Thomson Reuters/Pangea Research

Special report - Corona

Appendix Nordic listed property companies key figures overview

Notes: 1) As of 18 March 2020 2) Last closing price vs balance sheet items in Q4-reports 3) Mcap weighted average

Date Stockmarket data1 Company data1 Valuation metrics2

18 March 2020 Share price Company profile Financials Impl. EBITDA yield P/NAV P/E P/CE EV/EBITDA

Last 12M YTD Sector Geography Mcap EV Impl. LTV 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

SWEDEN (SEK) (%) (%) Main use Location (SEKm) (SEKm) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Atrium Ljungberg 137.6 -15.9 -39.1 Retail Sweden 18,331 38,840 54 4.3 0.7 15.8 14.6 27.9

Balder 256.6 -10.5 -40.8 Mixed Nordics 46,188 132,904 60 4.3 0.8 11.3 11.4 28.3

Besqab 94.0 4.4 -36.1 Developer Mid Sweden 1,458 1,352 70 13.8 n.a. 8.7 n.a. 12.4

Bonava 38.4 -67.0 -61.4 Developer Northern Europe 4,195 11,093 62 12.6 n.a. 4.5 4.2 11.8

Brinova 18.3 -4.5 -42.2 Mixed Southern Sweden 1,320 3,589 73 5.1 0.8 10.3 n.a. 26.3

Castellum 134.7 -23.8 -38.8 Mixed Nordics 36,787 78,284 53 5.3 0.7 12.0 9.1 22.4

Catena 227.0 -13.4 -45.1 Warehouse Sweden 8,558 17,539 51 5.3 1.1 13.4 12.7 25.5

Corem 15.5 19.2 -42.6 Warehouse Sweden 6,725 12,739 47 4.7 0.7 2.4 n.a. 29.0

Diös 57.0 -22.8 -33.6 Mixed Northern Sweden 7,667 20,090 62 5.8 0.8 7.9 7.9 21.9

Fabege 104.9 -19.3 -32.6 Office Stockholm 34,699 61,972 44 3.4 0.8 22.6 22.1 33.7

FastPartner 57.3 -17.3 -42.2 Mixed Sweden 11,638 24,648 57 5.4 0.7 13.5 13.1 18.6

Heba 70.8 -1.0 -17.9 Residential Stockholm 5,845 8,771 40 n.a. 0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Hufvudstaden 103.3 -35.6 -44.2 Office Stockholm, Gothenburg 20,970 28,374 26 5.1 0.6 18.7 18.2 30.5

JM 171.4 -8.6 -38.2 Developer Nordics 11,927 12,854 7 15.4 n.a. 8.1 8.0 6.5

John Mattson 113.0 n.a. -19.5 Residential Stockholm 3,805 6,397 41 2.4 1.1 38.4 40.5 n.a.

K-Fastigheter 131.5 n.a. -18.3 Residential Sweden 3,963 6,381 38 1.8 1.8 77.8 77.8 n.a.

K2A Knaust & Andersson 114.0 n.a. -35.7 Residential Sweden 1,991 4,477 56 2.2 1.5 104.1 n.a. 57.1

Klövern 12.0 -3.6 -47.6 Office Sweden, Denmark, US 14,368 46,298 69 4.8 0.6 10.2 9.4 23.2

Kungsleden 59.8 -18.5 -39.3 Office Sweden 13,050 31,399 58 5.3 0.7 10.5 10.5 23.9

Magnolia Bostad 28.0 -11.3 -32.5 Developer Sweden 1,059 3,178 63 16.5 n.a. 5.9 n.a. 6.9

NP3 60.2 -18.0 -46.7 Mixed Northern Sweden 3,271 10,069 67 7.5 1.0 6.8 6.7 18.4

Nyfosa 36.3 -34.9 -55.2 Mixed Sweden 6,323 17,016 63 8.5 0.6 5.7 2.3 27.1

Oscar Properties 0.6 -87.9 -73.0 Developer Stockholm 181 857 79 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 21.5

Pandox 50.7 -69.2 -76.1 Hotel Northern Europe 9,321 37,759 84 4.9 0.3 6.3 3.5 18.8

Platzer 63.1 -15.5 -42.6 Office Gothenburg 7,677 16,159 61 5.2 0.8 11.8 12.0 26.9

Sagax 79.9 -2.3 -41.3 Warehouse Sweden, Finland, Europe 28,667 45,613 37 5.5 1.5 13.0 n.a. 27.1

SBB i Norden 13.5 22.5 -41.0 Public sector Nordics 16,159 49,959 68 6.1 0.7 8.7 n.a. 19.9

SSM 8.0 -1.0 -14.7 Developer Stockholm 471 798 41 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Stendörren 88.4 -20.4 -47.7 Warehouse Mid Sweden 2,268 7,171 68 5.0 0.7 13.6 13.2 27.3

Wallenstam 89.5 -1.4 -20.9 Residential Stockholm, Gothenburg 29,535 50,621 48 2.8 1.0 25.6 22.8 43.3

Wihlborgs 111.7 -10.6 -35.2 Office Öresund 17,170 40,692 58 5.4 0.8 10.1 9.4 23.0

SUM/AVERAGE SWEDEN3 n.a. -14.1 -38.9 375,585 827,891 51 5.2 0.8 15.0 14.3 26.7

NORWAY (NOK) (%) (%) Main use Location (NOKm) (NOKm) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Entra 98.4 -20.4 -32.1 Office Norway 17,922 39,553 50 5.2 0.7 14.9 n.a. 23.3

Norwegian Property 9.5 -12.8 -31.7 Office Norway 4,749 12,624 62 4.4 0.5 21.0 n.a. 26.4

Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap 91.7 -38.0 -45.4 Retail Norway, Sweden 9,502 32,547 69 8.0 0.3 6.9 n.a. n.a.

Selvaag Bolig 45.0 42.8 -14.6 Developer Norway 4,219 5,345 21 13.1 n.a. 8.4 8.2 10.7

Solon Eiendom 28.0 -25.3 -31.0 Developer Norway 2,077 4,887 57 5.5 n.a. 15.5 n.a. 23.1

SUM/AVERAGE NORWAY3 n.a. -17.1 -33.4 38,469 94,957 53 6.7 0.6 13.0 8.2 22.0

FINLAND (EUR) (%) (%) Main use Location (EURm) (EURm) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Citycon 5.8 -37.1 -36.6 Retail Nordics 1,038 2,905 64 6.9 0.5 7.8 7.6 18.1

Hoivatilat 15.6 90.3 -2.8 Public sector Finland, Sweden 397 667 41 5.7 1.8 10.7 n.a. n.a.

Kojamo 15.4 55.7 -5.1 Residential Finland 3,801 6,206 39 3.6 n.a. 25.2 25.2 31.2

SUM/AVERAGE FINLAND3 n.a. 40.0 -11.1 5,235 9,778 44 4.4 0.8 20.6 21.4 28.4

DENMARK (DKK) (%) (%) Main use Location (DKKm) (DKKm) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

BoStad 2.3 9.6 5.6 Residential Denmark 368 1,713 80 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Jeudan 1010.2 8.1 -17.5 Office Denmark 11,530 28,663 60 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Nordicom 6.9 17.7 9.8 Mixed Denmark 493 1,681 95 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

SUM/AVERAGE DENMARK3 n.a. 8.5 -15.7 12,391 32,057 62 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

NORDICS (EUR) (%) (%) (EURm) (EURm) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

SUM/AVERAGE NORDICS3 n.a. -6.8 -34.3 43,538 95,666 51 5.2 0.8 15.6 15.3 26.6

PROPERTY COMPANIES n.a. -6.5 -34.1 41,306 92,147 52 4.8 0.8 16.0 15.8 27.6

DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES n.a. -11.6 -37.4 2,232 3,519 30 13.7 n.a. 8.0 7.2 9.8

Page 14: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

Contact information

NORDICS

Mikael Söderlundh

+46 73 770 77 90

[email protected]

SWEDEN

Emil Ekholm

+46 70 743 22 17

[email protected]

NORWAY

Andreas Fiskum

+47 90 09 90 37

[email protected]

• Property Transactions

• Corporate Finance

• Research & Strategic Advisory

• Hotel Sector Competence

SERVICE OFFERING

PANGEA RESEARCH

Pangea’s inhouse research team follows the

Nordic property and capital markets

continuously and provides an independent

view on real estate. To subscribe, visit our

website pangeapartners.co.uk/research.

Pangea Property Partners is an independent

advisory firm focusing on property related

corporate finance and transaction services

in the Nordics. The company has about

35 employees with offices in Stockholm, Oslo

and London. In addition, there is a close

cooperation with Mrec in Finland. In

2019/2020, Pangea Property Partners has

executed more than 50 transactions and

advisory mandates with an underlying

property value above EUR 3bn.

ABOUT USAUTHORS OF THIS REPORT

CEO & Senior Partner

Bård Bjölgerud

+47 48 40 80 80

[email protected]

Director & Senior Partner

Håvard A. Nustad

+47 48 40 80 77

[email protected]

Head of Corporate Finance

& Senior Partner

André Lundberg

+46 70 676 72 40

[email protected]

Director & Senior Partner

Joakim Arvius

+46 70 979 84 44

[email protected]

KEY CONTACTS AT PANGEA

Page 15: PANGEA SPECIAL TOPIC RESEARCH · 2020. 3. 23. · Pangea Property Partners Introduction Special report - Corona 3 The coronavirus (Covid-19) was first reported in China on 31 December

STOCKHOLM

Norrlandsgatan 15, 7th floorBox 7740, 103 95 Stockholm, Sweden

Pangeapartners.se

OSLO

Tjuvholmen Allé 3, 8th floor N-0250 Oslo, Norway

Pangeapartners.no

LONDON

Berkeley Square House, Berkeley Square London WIJ 6BD, United Kingdom

Pangeapartners.co.uk

HELSINKI

C/o Mrec Oy, Mikonkatu 4 B 00100 Helsinki, Finland

Pangeapartners.co.uk