2121stst Century Flu Pandemic Insights Century Flu Pandemic Insights from 20from 20thth Century HistoryCentury History

Presentation for NJ Chapter InfragardTuesday 21 April 2009Jonathan D. Abolins, CHSP

I had a little bird, Its name was Enza, I opened the window, And in-flu-enza.

-American Skipping Rhyme circa 1918

Introduction

• Have forms and insurances cards ready. (Just kidding.)

• Not speaking as a medical expert.

• Gleaning lessons from history to help present planning for the future.

Flu by any other name…

• Influenza - from Italian “influenza di freddo” –“influence of the cold.”

• Grippe - from Old French for “claw” or “quarrel”

• Blitzkatarrh or Blitz Katarrh in German. Lit. “Lightning catarrh” or “very fast mucus discharge.”

Some technical terms

• Pathogen = a disease causing organism.

• Epidemic = local or regional outbreak of a contagious disease.

• Pandemic = global epidemic.

• Isolation = Controlling communicable disease spread by separating persons known to be ill from those who aren’t.

• Quarantine = Like isolation, for people exposed to the disease but who may or may not be ill yet.

Simplified flu virus nomenclature(designation scheme)

Virus Subtype

A/Fujian/411/2002 (H3N2)Year of Isolation

StrainNumber

GeographicOrigin

VirusType

Type ofnuclearmaterial

Neuramindase

Hemagglutinin

Typical flu symptoms

• Fever (usually high)• Headache• Tiredness (can be extreme)• Cough• Sore throat• Runny or stuffy nose• Body aches• Diarrhea and vomiting

– More common among children than adults.

NOTE: Other diseases, such as the cold, may have these symptoms.

Why the fuss about the flu?

• Highly contagious.• Flu can kill.

– The elderly and people with certain medical conditions at higher risk.– Some flu strains can be far more lethal than the usual seasonal flu.

“I know how not to get AIDS.I don’t know how not to getthe flu.”

- Alfred W. Crosby, Jr. quoted by Gina Kolata in “Flu”

Birds eye view of our timeline

• Pre – 20th Century• 1918-1919 “Spanish Influenza” pandemic • 1957-1958 “Asian Flu” pandemic• 1968-1969 “Hong Kong Flu”• 1976 “Swine Flu” potential pandemic • 1997 & 1999 “Avian Flu” cases• The present

Pre 20th Century• 431 BCE plague hit Athens. Flu?• 876 flu (?) epidemic slowed

Charlemagne’s conquest of Europe.• 1580 flu followed new trade routes.• 1889 – 1890: Severe pandemic.

– > 250,000 deaths in Europe– 15-25 Million deaths worldwide.

1918 “Spanish influenza” (H1N1)

• Deadliest known outbreak.• 50-100 Million deaths worldwide. 675,000+ US.

– Influenza and complications killed 1.0% - 2.5% of the victims.– Dropped 1918 US life expectancy by 12 yrs.– Killed more people in 24 wks than AIDS had in 24 yrs. – Compare with combat deaths:

• WW1 9.2 Million; WW2 15.9 Million

Remember the human populationhas grown since then: World 1918 ≈ 1.8 Billion

2009 ≈ 6.7 Billion US 1918 ≈ 103 Million

2009 ≈ 306 Million

Symptoms of the 1918 flu

• Normal flu symptoms.• But many patients had other symptoms

that could include – High fever– Nasty, “rib cracking” cough– Dark spots on cheeks– cyanosis (turning blue), suffocation.– Lungs filling with a frothy, bloody substance,

massive pulmonary hemorrhages– Death.

• Sometimes, death came hours after the visible onset of illness.

1918 flu hits young adults hard• Flu deaths usually among the very young

& the very old. • The 1918 flu tended to kill people 20 to

40 years old.– “W mortality curve”– People age <65 accounted for 99% of the

excess mortality of the time.

• Possible reasons: – Damage to the lungs as their healthier

immune systems fought the virus. • Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)

– Another factor may be the impact of other infections, including pneumonia or TB, on top of the flu’s viral infection.

% Mortality for Ages

<10 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60+

1918

<10 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60+

Typical

3 Waves. 1st – Spring 1918

• Most likely first appeared in Kansas in March. • Seemed mild at the time. • The unusual age & mortality curve unnoticed.

– Influenza was not routinely tracked in those days.– “It’s only the flu” view.

• By summer, subsided in the US. Went overseas.• The flu went around the world in 4 months.

– This is before the era of air travel!

2nd Wave – Late August 1918• The flu changed into new strain or strains.• First hit 3 ports

– Boston; Brest France; Freeport, Sierra Leone

• Really bad! Got people’s attention.• Now, we’ll look at the conditions & responses…

Boston

Brest, France

Freeport, Sierra Leone

Wartime conditions

• Collision of public heath & the war effort.• This was a WORLD war.

– High mobility. – Push to get “doughboys” to Europe ASAP.– Military demand for doctors & more nurses. Shortages.

• Highly crowded conditions. • Liberty Loan drives and other patriotic gatherings.• Some people suspected German germ warfare.• Wartime censorship.

– Why “Spanish” Flu?

Social & economic impacts

• Many people panicked by the symptoms.

• While some helped the ill, others fled.– Some of the sick died from

starvation, etc.– Sometimes, it was hard to recruit

volunteers.

• The pandemic may have cost the US >$600 Billion (est. in present day dollars)– Including decreased

business & closings.

Medical services overwhelmed

• Example: San Francisco Hospital– By end of Oct 1918, had 1,100 pneumonia patients,

overflowing capacity.– Admitted 3,509 respiratory cases during the

pandemic. Of these, 26% died– 78% of nurses fell ill. – Others may have been

ill but soldiered on.

Emergency hospital set up inan auditorium in Oakland.

Measures varied across the US

Among measures used:– Prohibited or restricted public

gatherings.– Quarantine & isolation. – Education campaigns.– Deploying public health doctors & nurses.– Vaccinations (ineffectual)– Mask laws and laws against spitting, etc.

• Stiff fines for “mask slackers,” spitters, etc.

A “mask slacker” barred fromgetting onto a streetcar.

Philadelphia & the 1918 flu

• 26% of doctors & even more nurses in military.

• 75% hospital staff overseas.• Sep18th: Flu first appeared at the naval

base.• Campaign against coughing, sneezing,

and spitting.• Oct 3rd: public gathering ban issued. • Firemen, garbage collectors & other

city employees fall sick.• City morgue overflowing. Convicts dig

graves. City opens 5 more morgues.• Oct 27th: public gathering ban lifted.

Days after Philadelphia’s Liberty Loan parade in September 1918, which was attended by 200,000 people, hundreds of cases of influenza were reported. [Credit: Naval Historical Center]

What to tell the public?

• Officials sought to keep up morale.– Full information was not given.– Emphasized a “do not fear” message.– “Fear Kills More Than the Disease.”– Said that one’s safe if following

recommended precautions.• But the public was seeing a

drastically different reality.– That may have increased fear.

• Challenge of communicationsto gain compliance, keep up morale, etc. without “cognitive dissonance” or disillusionment.

Racing for a vaccine - 1918

• Viral cause unknown until 1930s.– Flu though to be caused by bacteria.

“Pfeiffer’s Bacillus” (Haemophilus influenzae)• Vaccine research was on the wrong track.

– Viral cause of flu discovered later.

• Dr. Joseph Goldberger’s experiment to get 39 volunteers infected. – Pfeiffer’s Bacillus doses, contact with

flu patients, etc. It fails! Non caught the flu. (Murphy’s Law at work.)

3rd Wave – Spring 1919

• Not as bad as the 2nd wave.• Much of the world exposed.• Still, many people got ill.

– Many communities had lifted measures.– In many places, public balked at renewed

restrictions.

• Afterwards– Some people had some debilitation.– Possible impact upon Versailles Treaty negotiations.– Scientific progress in understanding flu.

Vaccines after 1918

• 1930s-1940s – Techniques for making flu vaccines start to be developed.– Viruses can be grown in embryonated chicken eggs.– US military develops & tests vaccines in the 1940s.

• Time factors: – At least 6 months to develop, test, and produce

vaccines for commercial distribution.– ≈3 weeks after injection to have immunity.

• Obstacles– Early vaccines had common side effects. Fever and

sore arms.– Economic issues (liability, profitability)

1957-1958 Asian Flu (H2N2)

• Unlike 1918 flu, this one’s quickly identified.• Despite advance in medicine, still killed.

– Worldwide ≈ 2 Million deaths.– US ≈ 70,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly.

• Vaccine available but too little too late.– Asian Flu detected in February.– Vaccine approved in July. Production begins.– Not ready until winter. – By mid October, ≈7 Million people vaccinated.– Many unused doses left after flu had passed.

1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu (H3N2)

• Detected in July.• All out vaccine production effort.

– But 1st lot not available until mid-Nov, 3 weeks after 1st US outbreak in California.

– At peak of outbreak, only 10M doses distributed and ≈6M people protected.

• Again, vaccine was too little too late.• Milder than previous pandemics.• Still, ≈ 34,000 deaths in the US.

1976 Swine Flu (H1N1)

• January: Pvt. David Lewis at Ft. Dix dies.– Soon, 300 other soldiers ill.

• Indications that the flu might be related to the 1918 pandemic.– Similar strain had been found in pigs since 1920s. – Legionnaires' disease thought to be the flu.

• This time, the push was to have enough vaccines in time.

• The National Influenza Immunization Program

Swine Flu vaccination snarls

• Challenges of public perceptions of risks vs. benefits, unrealistic expectations, and bad press coverage.

• 3 elderly people died soon after the flu shot.• Cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) among some flu

shot recipients.– Many possible factors for GBS.– But some people blamed the flu shot for GBS

• Dec 16th, US suspends the program. – 40 Million people vaccinated for flu that didn’t come.

• Fallout from the “Swine Flu Fiasco”– Cynicism about govt. health programs.– For decades afterwards, pandemic flu was a topic best to avoid.

But it couldn’t be avoided forever

1997 & 1999 Avian Flu cases

• 1997: H5N1. Hong Kong. – Several hundred people ill. 18 hospitalized, of which 6 died. – The more severe illness in young adults resembled the 1918 flu.– All chickens in Hong Kong killed to prevent virus spread.– No further human infections found.

• 1999: H9N2. Hong Kong.– Caused illness in couple of Hong Kong children.

• Direct Bird to Human transmission in both cases. – No pig intermediary.– No Human to Human transmission.

• Concerns: – The viruses presence in birds. Several other cases since 2000.– Flu viruses ability to change & become transmissible among

humans.– Avian flu is being monitored.

• That brings us to today.

Time factors are critical

• Time to detect & isolate virus. • Time to decide to make vaccine.• Time to enact the decision (legal, PR, liability hurdles)• Time to develop, test, and manufacture vaccine (6 mos)• Time to vaccinate people.• Time to develop immunity after vaccination.• Time for the pandemic to reach your part of the world.• Might not have vaccine until after the flu passed.

1968: 342 days

Hypothetical present day: 180 days

Other lessons

• Time is critical. Yet difficult to commit.– Value of medical surveillance & early detection.

• Value of volunteers & public cooperation.• Murphy’s Law can (will) apply.

– Other things can compete for attention.– Medical people & responders getting sick.– People may act in unexpected ways.

• Challenge of communications– Maintaining morale without losing trust.

• We’ve been through this before & survived.

Thank you.

Jonathan D. AbolinsJon.Abolins@gmail.comjonathan.d.abolins@infragard.org

Blog: http://jabolins.livejournal.com

Certified Homeland Security Professionals [CHSP] Certification & Learning Portal: http://www.sighls.org/learning/

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