Pandemics & Seismic Events · The beat goes on, the beat goes on Drums keep pounding a rhythm to...
Transcript of Pandemics & Seismic Events · The beat goes on, the beat goes on Drums keep pounding a rhythm to...
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Ted C. Jones, PhDChief Economist
Stewart Title
Pandemics & Seismic Events
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Annual Streaming Prices
$72
$84
$108 $120
$132
$49,653
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1967 – An Economic Forecast for
2020
What Changes,What Stays the SameWhat’s to
Come
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The beat goes on, the beat goes on
Drums keep pounding a rhythm to the brain
La de da de de, la de da de da
Sonny & Cher
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Charleston was once the rage, uh huh
History has turned the page, uh huh
The mini skirts, the current thing, uh huh
Teenybopper is our newborn king, uh huh
Sonny & Cher
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Recession is Defined as Two or MoreQuarters of Negative GDP Growth
Recession
3.1%Q1 2019
2.0%Q2 2019
2.1%Q3 2019
2.1%Q4 2019
-32.9%Q2 2020
-4.6%2020
+25%Q3 2020
+5.8%2021
-5%Q1
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“It’s All About Jobs”
Ted C. Jones Most Used Fact
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125
130
135
140
145
150
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 20
U.S. JobsJobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted
Added 4.76 Million Net Jobs in June 2020 2020 Peak-to-Trough Down 14.661 Million
April 2020
June 2020
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LeisureAnd
Hospitality-45.8%
March toApril 2020
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U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Employment
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
$0
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Leisure & Hospitality Employment - MillionsRecession
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State Business Tax Environments 2020
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240
260
280
300
320
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Vermont JobsJobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted
-17.1 Percent 54,100 Net Lost Jobs
12 Months Ending May
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2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA JobsJobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted
Trough
June 2020
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Florida13.0%
Lost
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Florida42.7%
Recovered
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WhatKindOf
Jobs
Total Jobs
Employment Supersector Thousands June February
Total 2,486.6 100.0% 100.0%
Mining & Logging 0.8 0.5% 0.5%
Construction 140.4 5.3% 4.8%
Manufacturing 86.4 8.8% 8.5%
Trade-Transport-Utilities 572.2 18.6% 18.5%
Information 47.9 1.9% 1.9%
Financial Activities 188.5 6.4% 5.8%
Professional and Business Service 419.5 14.5% 14.1%
Education and Health Services 379.3 16.7% 16.3%
Leisure & Hospitality 254.3 7.5% 10.7%
Other 106.2 3.7% 3.9%
Government 291.1 16.1% 15.0%
Miami MSA Supersector Job AnalysisSeasonally Adjusted June 2020
Percent of Jobs
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Recessions + Oil Prices
$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140
$0'72'74'76'78'80'82'84'86'88'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20
West Texas Intermediate Crude OilRecession
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$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
West Texas Intermediate Crude
$40.71 July Average
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price$ Per Barrel
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Average Barrels
Per Day
Millions Total Extraction Support
2015 8.879 521.9 197.5 324.4
2019 12.232 419.7 150 269.7
Change 37.8% -19.6% -24.1% -16.9%
U.S. Oil Production
Oil Field Worker Employment
Jobs Thousands
Production +38% Jobs -20%
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CEO Steve Hafner projects25% of all restaurants will permanently closedue to the Coronavirus
25%
May 15, 2020
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85%
June 15, 2020
X 70% = 59.5%Independent Restaurants That
May Permanently Close
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Residential Interest Rates + Recession
0.02.55.07.510.012.515.017.5
$0'72'74'76'78'80'82'84'86'88'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20
Conventional Mortgage Rate - PercentRecession
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30-Year Conventional Residential Mortgage Rates
2.75%
3.25%
3.75%
4.25%
4.75%
5.25%
J F M M A M J J A S O N D
2.88%
Percent
2017
2018
20192020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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Residential Lending - $ Trillions
Residential Lending Volumes & Interest Rates
30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rates
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
21
Lending & Forecast – Fannie Mae Historical Interest Rates – Freddie Mac
Forecast
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ResidentialLendingForecast
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US Existing Home Sales & Median Prices
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Median Home Price - $ ThousandsSales – SeasonallyAdjusted AnnualizedRate Millions
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0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019 2020
U.S. Existing Single Family Home SalesMonthly Sales – Not Seasonally Adjusted - Thousands
-6.6% Year-To-Date-2.1% June 2020 vs June 2019
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019 2020
U.S. Existing Condo-Co-op Home SalesMonthly Sales – Not Seasonally Adjusted - Thousands
-18.4% Year-To-Date-14.5% June 2020 vs June 2019
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US Existing Home Sales & Median Prices
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Median Home Price - $ ThousandsSales – Prior 12 Months
Millions
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Miami MSA SFR Home Sales & Median Prices
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Median Home Price - $ Thousands Sales – Prior 12 Months
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Miami 18.2% 9.9% 0.9% -32.7% -48.0% -11.6%
USA 11.8% 7.9% 4.8% -16.1% -29.5% -2.1%
Single Family Home Sales Monthly 2020Year-Over-Year Percent Change
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Miami Townhouse-Condo Sales & Median Prices
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Median Home Price - $ Thousands Sales – Prior 12 Months
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Townhouse-Condo Home Sales Monthly 2020Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Miami 11.8% 6.7% 2.3% -41.3% -59.3% -28.4%
USA 6.7% 5.9% -2.2% -34.0% -46.7% -14.5%
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Net Dwelling Jobs
New Unit Per New
Year Jobs Permits Dwelling
2013 71,500 19,921 3.59
2014 89,900 15,259 5.89
2015 79,300 23,450 3.38
2016 59,100 18,742 3.15
2017 41,500 19,723 2.10
2018 47,400 19,553 2.42
2019 28,900 20,688 1.40
Total 417,600 137,336 3.04
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach
Jobs & Residential Dwelling Unit Permits
1.25 to 1.5Net NewJobs Per
New DwellingIs Normal
Under Built
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DrTCJ
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DrTCJ
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$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
20
US Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
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$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
20
Miami Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
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U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Q2 2020
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$ Billions
2007 155.594$
154.588$
127.375$
132.497$
2008 61.163$ -60.7%
47.868$ -69.0%
42.569$ -66.6%
26.139$ -80.3%
2009 13.769$ -91.2%
14.290$ -90.8%
17.207$ -86.5%
23.618$ -82.2%
2010 19.673$ -67.8%
U.S.CommercialReal Estate
Sales -69%
8 Years to Recover Back
To$500 Billion
Annual
Comparisons toSame Quarter 2007
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$ Billions
2007 4.870$
3.977$
4.239$
3.041$
2008 1.265$ -74.0%
1.555$ -60.9%
1.393$ -67.1%
1.148$ -62.3%
2009 0.254$ -94.8%
0.319$ -92.0%
0.969$ -77.1%
1.145$ -62.4%
2010 0.579$ -54.2%
FloridaCommercialReal Estate
Sales -67%
8 Years to Recover Back
To$16 Billion
Annual
Comparisons toSame Quarter 2007
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Year $ Billion
'06 4.74$
'07 6.63$
'08 1.09$
'09 0.55$
'10 1.32$
'11 1.49$
'12 1.89$
'13 4.23$
'14 5.16$
'15 7.49$
'16 3.59$
'17 2.65$
'18 5.07$
'19 4.71$
FloridaHotelSales
91.7% Plunge
8 Years to Recover
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FloridaHotel
AverageSalesPrice
Per Unit
-46.6% Value5 Years to Recover
2007-2009 RevenueDrop of 19.3%
Year Per Unit
'06 123,380$
'07 111,274$
'08 141,009$
'09 75,360$
'10 83,031$
'11 98,732$
'12 101,836$
'13 139,964$
'14 168,649$
'15 156,290$
'16 136,378$
'17 114,346$
'18 157,532$
'19 200,441$
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Value Impacts – Commercial Real Estate
• Cap Rates – Risk Component• Demand – Rent Component• Vacancy & Collection Loss
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U.S. & Miami Cap Rates
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ''17 '18 '19 '20
Cap Rate
US Miami
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Commercial Cap Rates
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Hotel
All
Apartments
Office
RetailIndustrial
Gain
Trough Peak BP
Hotel 8.62% 9.02% 40
Industrial 6.93% 8.18% 124
Office 6.54% 7.97% 143
Retail 6.65% 7.73% 108
All 6.72% 7.38% 66
Apartments 5.92% 7.00% 108
2005-2009-10% Value
Just Cap Rate
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August 2020
Commercial Property Price Index
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DrTCJ
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DrTCJ
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DrTCJ
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DrTCJ
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Expected Short Recession, Deep – But Out by Q4 Entered Downturn with Best Wage Growth in 10 Years
Record Low Interest RatesCheap Energy fuels the economy, helps almost EVERYONE
Manufacturing Short-term Comebackreplacing China on many fronts – medical, parts, pharma
2020-2021 Economic Outlook Ted’s Take
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DrTCJ
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• U.S. Manufacturing LONGTERM Comeback• Hastening Paperless Real Estate Transaction Process• Remote Everything – Notary, Closings, Appraisals…..• Drive-Thru Everything • Office Demand – Permanently Down, Industrial Up• Leisure & Hospitality Direct Hit from the Blast + RE• Oil Prices Remain Low – 99.5% of Consumers Win• Contractual Rent Terms – force majeure redux
What’s to Come - Permanent Ted’s Take
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http://blog.stewart.com
DrTCJ
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Ted C. Jones, PhDChief Economist
Stewart Title
Pandemics & Seismic Events